Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 12:06 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:33 PM
  • General

Call buyers have been active in Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:ARIA) options pits in recent months, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Specifically, ARIA's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 14.51 across these exchanges ranks in the 86th annual percentile.

Echoing this call-skewed bias is ARIA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.31, which rests lower than 61% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. In other words, short-term speculators are slightly more call-heavy than usual toward the security.

In the front-month series -- which expires at tonight's close -- peak call open interest is found at the April 9 strike, where 4,310 contracts are housed. Looking out to the May-dated series, call players have shown a preference for the 10 strike, where 16,190 contracts currently reside. According to the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, the majority of the positions at both strikes have been bought to open in recent months. Of note, a move north of $10 would mark the equity's highest perch since October 2013.

Technically speaking, ARIA has been a standout, boasting a year-to-date lead of 31%. In fact, the shares hit an annual high of $9.23 earlier, after the firm unveiled updated clinical data on its alk+ non-small cell lung cancer treatment, brigatinib. However, the security has not been able to avoid broad-market headwinds, and was last seen off 1.1% at $9.

Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 12:36 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:33 PM
  • General

Among the stocks gearing up to report earnings on Monday are oil-and-gas firm Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL), toymaker Hasbro, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAS), and commodity concern Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD). Below, we'll gauge the pre-earnings temperature of HAL, HAS, and STLD.

  • HAL has started to bounce back from the steep losses it suffered as crude prices tanked during the second half of 2014, with the shares up 19% year-to-date to reach $46.79. However, traders have remained skeptical of Halliburton Company, as its 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 1.12 is the highest reading taken over the past year. Meanwhile, HAL has notched gains in the session immediately following its last four earnings releases, for an average post-report boost of 1.5% over that time frame. Traders are paying historically tame prices for their short-term bets on the equity, as its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 30% ranks in the 27th percentile of its annual range.

  • HAS has been a technical standout, with the shares up 20% year-to-date to hit $66.03 -- and yesterday notching a fresh all-time high of $66.32. What's more, sector rival Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) posted impressive first-quarter earnings last night, raising expectations for Hasbro, Inc. ahead of its trip to the earnings confessional Monday morning. Traders have favored calls over puts in recent weeks, as HAS' 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 3.73 stands in the 98th percentile of its annual range. On the earnings front, the stock has been impressive, with the shares gaining an average of 2.8% in the session immediately following its last four earnings reports -- including a 7% pop in February. Near-term options are pricing in somewhat inflated volatility expectations, as HAS' SVI of 27% ranks higher than 72% of all similar readings from the past year.

  • STLD has been choppy over the past year, with the shares tumbling from a six-year high of $25.51 on Sept. 18 to a low of $16.51 on Jan. 29. Despite this rocky price action, the shares of Steel Dynamics, Inc. are still up 12.1% year-over-year to trade at $20.44. Sentiment in the options pits has been optimistic, as STLD's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 40.12 is higher than 86% of all equivalent readings from the past 12 months. Meanwhile, in the session immediately following its last four earnings reports, STLD has been unpredictable, with results ranging from a 4.8% loss last April to a 4.5% gain in July. Traders are paying historically modest prices for their short-term bets on the stock, as its SVI of 35% sits in the 41st percentile of its annual range.
Published on Apr 20, 2015 at 12:29 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:32 PM
  • General

Among the stocks gearing up to report earnings tomorrow are LED specialist Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ:CREE), athletic apparel maker Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA), and search engine giant Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO). Below, we'll gauge the pre-earnings temperature of CREE, UA, and YHOO.

  • CREE has been a technical underperformer, with the shares down nearly 40% year-over-year to linger near $34.97. Accordingly, puts have been prominent in the options pits, as Cree, Inc.'s 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX ) put/call volume ratio of 0.93 is higher than 73% of all similar readings from the past year. On the earnings front, CREE has been abysmal over the past year, losing an average of 8.5% in the session immediately following its last four earnings reports -- including a 17.7% plummet in October. Traders are paying historically middling prices for their short-term bets on the equity, as its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 52% ranks in the 54th percentile of its annual range.

  • On the other hand, UA has been a technical beast, with the shares up 27.3% year-to-date to hit $86.40 -- and earlier touching an all-time high of $86.68. Not surprisingly, traders have favored Under Armour Inc calls over puts, as UA's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 2.52 stands in the 98th percentile of its annual range. Traders anticipating post-earnings upside for the stock have history on their side -- in the session immediately following its last four earnings reports, UA has gained an average of 1.1%. Short-term options are available for relatively fair prices, as UA's SVI of 38% is higher than 48% of all equivalent readings from the past year.

  • The shares of YHOO have slipped recently, down 14.9% from November's 14-year high of $52.62 to hover around $44.80. However, traders have shown a distinct preference for calls over puts in the options pits, as Yahoo! Inc.'s 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 4.57 is higher than 85% of all similar readings taken over the past 12 months. In the session immediately following its last four earnings reports, YHOO's returns have been all over the map, ranging from a 6.3% pop last April to a 5.1% loss in July. Traders are paying historically tame prices for their near-term bets on YHOO, as its SVI of 33% ranks in the 30th percentile of its annual range.
Published on Apr 17, 2020 at 11:01 AM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:31 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown

Wall Street was all over the place this week, in a volatile stretch indicative of where the world is at right now. The Dow kicked off the week alternating between triple-digit losses and gains. The only model of consistency was the Nasdaq, earlier in the week logging its first four-day win streak since early February. Commodities joined in on the roller-coasted action as well, with oil scraping an 18-year low on Wednesday, and gold prices continuing a volatile trend linear with the U.S. dollar.

In what's become the new normal, coronavirus updates and their economic impact were at the forefront of investor's minds. Jobless claims were once again dismal, and several companies' earnings reports began to show the ill-effects of COVID-19. Through it all though, all three benchmarks are cruising toward weekly wins.

Drug Stocks Making Headlines

A handful of drug, biopharma, and biotech stocks have been making major moves this week, with Gilead Sciences (GILD) taking the stage Friday, after reports surfaced its COVID-19 treatment remdesivir was making progress.

On the flip side, Rite Aid (RAD) suffered steep losses on the heels of a less-than-impressive fiscal fourth-quarter loss, and Mylan (MYL) dropped off after naming a new executive chairman. Even further, our Founder and CEO Bernie Schaeffer, took a look at this red-hot biotech and the bearish trendline it's facing off with.

All Eyes on Blue-Chip, Bank Earnings 

Bank stocks have also made headlines following a slew of earnings reports. This includes the Bank of New York Mellon (BK), which shared a quarterly earnings and revenue beat early in the week. Blue chip Goldman Sachs (GS) did not fare as well, pushing out a dismal report Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, Dow name Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) posted first-quarter revenue of $20.7 billion.

Earnings Season Forges On

Next week will bring a slew of notable earnings, including the likes of blue chips Visa (V), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), Coca-Cola (KO), and American Express (AXP). Netflix (NFLX) and Snap (SNAP) will also step into the earnings confessional, while weekly jobless claims will remain in focus as Wall Street closely follows the economic fallout of COVID-19. Until then, be sure to brush up on our recent take on levels of resistance you should watch as stocks rebound, and a contrarian approach to breaking down sector performance. 

Published on Nov 15, 2019 at 3:26 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:30 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown

It was a wild trading week for stocks, as Wall Street closely monitored developments on the trade agreement between the U.S. and China. U.S. President Donald Trump, in particular, was quite vocal about the state of the trade deal, with comments on Tuesday over how China has "cheated" the U.S. in the past spooking traders early in the week. Despite this, a huge win from Boeing (BA) on Monday and news of Disney's (DIS) successful new streaming service helped all three major indexes clock fresh highs throughout the week. In fact, by the end of the week, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P had all notched yet another all-time peak. 

Also on investor's radars were several speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in which the central bank leader hinted at holding monetary policy steady for the time being, and spoke positively about the U.S. economy. Earnings are still on the forefront of traders' minds too, and this week blue chips Walmart (WMT) and Cisco Systems (CSCO) were both in the spotlight -- the former giving the retail sector a boost on a well-received report -- and the latter spiraling on a negative earnings reaction. 

Stocks Swinging on Disney+ Debut 

Walt Disney's (DIS) highly anticipated streaming service Disney+ made its debut on Tuesday this week, but not without some hiccups. Several users took to Twitter (TWTR) to complain about glitches plaguing the new platform on its opening day. The blue chip was able to brush off most of these complaints though, and gave the Dow a boost through Wednesday after a strong numbers report

The release had several other stocks making big moves. Roku (ROKU) in particular saw a surge in shares, with options bulls piling on at the beginning of the week, while CBS (CBS) fell in the other direction over increased competition concerns. Entertainment name AMC (AMC) struggled ahead of the Disney+ release, too, with technical trouble nipping at its heels on Monday.  

Retail Stocks in the Spotlight as Earnings Season Chugs Along

There were several huge retail names on the docket this week. Perhaps most prominently in view was Walmart (WMT), which posted a well-received earnings and revenue beat -- giving several other sector peers, including Macy's (M), a halo lift. 

Earlier in the week, apparel company Canada Goose (GOOS) stepped into the earnings confessional, with a little less luck, sinking over 10% on Wednesday after trimming its third-quarter forecast. Dillard's (DDS) on the other hand, followed up with a big earnings beat, and what its CEO called a "substantial improvement over the second quarter." 

Retail Earnings, Fed Activity Remain on Wall Street's Radar

The final full week of trading in November is coming up next, and retail earnings will continue to take the spotlight as Wall Street prepares for a busy holiday season. Home Depot (HD) will headline the retail roll, with quarterly report from Macy's (M) and Target (TGT) also in the spotlight.

The Fed will also remain in focus, with the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes due out next Wednesday, along with several Fed speeches which will trickle in throughout the week. 

Published on Oct 15, 2014 at 10:26 AM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:29 PM
  • General

It's been a volatile couple of weeks for U.S. stocks, and the recent downward momentum is continuing this morning. Amid escalating concerns about Ebola, plunging crude oil prices, and a flood of downbeat economic data -- including significant monthly drops in U.S. retail sales, producer prices, and New York area manufacturing -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:DJI) was down nearly 370 points out of the gate, briefly breaching the 16,000 level to trade in territory not charted since mid-February. At last check, the blue-chip barometer has pared its deficit to 159 points, or 1%, to trade at 16,156.47, while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) -- also known as the market's "fear gauge" -- has skyrocketed amid huge volume, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is south of 2% for the first time in more than a year.

Specifically, the VIX jumped as high as 28.10 in early action, topping 28 for the first time since late 2011, but was last seen 13.4% higher at 25.84. Furthermore, more than 100,000 VIX futures traded within the first half-hour of trading, according to Russell Rhoads at the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). So far this month, the VIX has surged more than 58%, as the Dow and S&P 500 Index (SPX) have surrendered 5.2% and 5.7%, respectively. The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite (COMP), meanwhile, is on pace for the worst monthly hit, down 6.6%.

On the New York Stock Exchange, 2,404 equities are trading lower, compared to just 558 bucking the trend, resulting in an advance/decline ratio of 0.23. Likewise, 514 stocks have tagged new annual lows, compared to 11 scoring fresh peaks. Doral Financial Corp. (NYSE:DRL) is among the worst performers on the Big Board, down 8.2% at $6.14, after surging earlier this week on a favorable tax ruling. For the week, however, DRL remains 16.3% higher.

It's a similar setup on the Nasdaq, with 634 stocks trading higher, compared to 1,698 in the red, resulting in an advance/decline ratio of 0.37. Just 10 securities have notched new highs, while 227 are trading in new-low territory. The heaviest-hit on the index is U.K. drugmaker Shire PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ:SHPG), amid reports that its merger with AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) is in jeopardy. At last check, SHPG has plummeted 22.3% to $190.07.

Published on Jan 20, 2017 at 2:48 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:29 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown
Amid a busy week of corporate earnings and Fed speeches, it was newly inaugurated President Donald Trump that once again stole the stock market spotlight. Specifically, stocks started the week in negative territory, after Trump issued harsh words toward the U.S. dollar, sending the greenback tumbling. What's more, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) popped on Tuesday -- although Schaeffer's contributor Adam Warner suggest these short-term spikes could happen with more frequency going forward, and is something options traders have been seemingly been bracing for. Nevertheless, after logging its longest losing streak since early November and taking a brief trek into negative year-to-date territory, a shift in sentiment today has the Dow on track to notch its first win of the week.

Trump's market-moving comments spread to other areas of Wall Street, as well, with his promises of "insurance for everybody" helping lift healthcare stocks. And while most of Trump's Twitter feed was dedicated to events surrounding Inauguration Day, the president took time out to praise General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT), and Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) on their job creation promises.

However, not all the week's action revolved around the comings and goings in Washington D.C., as fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off in earnest. Big-cap banks stole the show early on, with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) all failing to capitalize on profit beats in the wake of their respective results amid broad-market headwinds. There was plenty of positive post-earnings price action to be found, though, just ask Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) or International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) shareholders, with the latter erasing an earlier deficit to hit a fresh annual high.

There was also plenty of M&A buzz circling Wall Street, with news of Sanchez Energy Corp's (NYSE:SN) big asset purchase -- and subsequent round of bullish brokerage attention -- sending the shares into annual-high territory. Eli Lilly and Co's (NYSE:LLY) nearly $1 billion purchase of CoLucid Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:CLCD) also earned praise from analysts, while rumors of a potential blue-chip takeover sparked a surge in shares of 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD).

Looking ahead, though the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) continues to trade south of this key technical level, data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White suggests the so-called "Trump rally" could have room to run, given the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) uptrend between the election and Inauguration Day. And while blue-chip names will dominate the earnings calendar during Trump's first official week in office, a list of historical post-inauguration outperformers and underperformers shows these two oil stocks and this drink maker should be ones to watch.

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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 11:44 AM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:28 PM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
The Trump rally rolled on, with the Dow, S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) all scoring fresh record highs this week -- and the Dow leaving a critical level in the dust. In fact, President-elect Donald Trump's Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) account seemingly served as a puppeteer for the stock market. Specifically, Dow stock Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) took a tumble on Tuesday, after Trump posted a criticizing tweet over the cost of the Air Force One program. Elsewhere, shares of Twitter and Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) made big moves of their own, as Trump's tweet over a potential $50 billion investment from Japan's SoftBank sparked buyout buzz for the two companies.

Outside of Twitter, Trump's comments over drug pricing in Time's "Person of the Year" cover story sent biotechs tumbling on Wednesday -- putting several overloved drug stocks on notice. And while Citron Research called this company "the culprit behind pharmaceutical price gouging" and Puma Biotechnology Inc (NYSE:PBYI) plunged on downbeat drug data, not all news was bad for biotechs. In fact, shares of SAGE Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE) and Neuroderm Ltd (NASDAQ:NDRM) surged on well-received updates for their respective treatments for postpartum depression and Parkinson's disease.

Elsewhere, bank stocks continued to shine in the post-Trump era, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) boasting a 4% week-to-date lead at last check. This positive price action was echoed in Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) -- which started the week off with some love from the brokerage bunch -- and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), with shares of both big banks notching new highs this week. And while regional bank Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF) followed its more well-publicized cohorts higher, this underloved bank stock could be a proverbial diamond in the rough for contrarian traders.

Not to be outdone, tech stocks saw their fair share of action throughout the week, with chipmakers seeing the bulk of the upside. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ:AVGO), for instance, seems set to close out the week at record highs, thanks to a positive earnings reaction. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) also notched a notable milestone -- before taking an expected breather in Friday's trading. Elsewhere in the tech sector, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) unveiled its first foray into the brick-and-mortar grocery business, rumors swirled over a potential Apple takeover of streaming giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) could be facing more legal headaches overseas, and Barron's was quite impressed with Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Amid these headlines, "FANG" stocks followed the COMP higher, with all four on pace to log weekly wins.

With markets raging higher, though, several sentiment indicators we follow are reaching extreme levels of optimism. Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White specifically ran the numbers of the massive build in SPX buying climaxes and the recent spike in bullishness among financial advisors, with both signals suggesting near-term headwinds could be on the horizon.

Nevertheless, at last check, the Dow was up 2.4% week-to-date, while the SPX and COMP were boasting week-to-date leads of 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively. What's more, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) continues to outperform, up 5.7% since last Friday's close. Looking ahead, next week could certainly be a volatile one, with the December Fed meeting on tap -- and expectations high that the central bank is poised to pull the trigger on its first interest rate hike in a year.

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Published on Jan 6, 2017 at 1:48 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:27 PM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
Stocks kicked off 2017 in fine fashion, with the Dow coming within one point of the highly watched 20,000 mark, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) also tallying new highs. And while a strong start to the new year for the SPX suggests the bull market could continue over the long term, several signs of short-term caution are flashing. As such, we're watching these seven key technical levels on the broad-market barometer.

Healthcare stocks were in full focus this week, as the new Republican-led Congress got underway -- and Vice President-elect Mike Pence promised a quick repeal of President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act (ACA). Although valuation concerns busted Cerner Corporation (NASDAQ:CERN) and a court ruling sent Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:REGN) spiraling, several names boomed on the all-but-expected end to Obamacare. Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), for instance, is set to end the week nearly 7% higher, although historical headwinds could put pressure on the shares this year. Additionally, Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE:AGN) -- while snapping its impressive daily win streak -- is on track for a more than 5% weekly win.

And while President-elect Donald Trump was quick to offer his two cents on Obamacare via Twitter, it was his tweets toward automakers that caught Wall Street's attention. Specifically, shortly before Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) said it would cancel plans to build a plant in Mexico, Trump sent a critical tweet over sector peer General Motors Company's (NYSE:GM) south-of-the-border Chevy Cruze operations. Likewise, Trump condemned Japan-based Toyota over its planned Mexican plant.

Retail stocks also shared in the limelight, as disappointing holiday sales sparked a sector-wide swoon -- albeit one that online retailer Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) avoided -- and brought several notable names to critical technical junctures. Nevertheless, not all brick-and-mortar retailers followed in the bearish footsteps of J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) and Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS), with Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS) reporting a rise in December sales, and earning a pair of bullish brokerage notes as a result.

There was plenty of action on the tech front, too, as the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) got underway in Las Vegas -- and Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shareholders took a tour of the much-anticipated Gigafactory. Among the notable news coming out of CES were reports of GoPro Inc's (NASDAQ:GPRO) Karma relaunch -- which sparked a short-lived breakout for the shares -- and Mobileye NV's (NYSE:MBLY) new strategic partnership with NIO, which followed up a big announcement with BMW and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC).

Looking ahead to the first full week of trading in 2017, several Fed officials are set to take the stage -- with Wall Street looking for insight over the last jobs report of President Barack Obama's tenure, released earlier today, as well as the "considerable uncertainty" toward the new administration the central bank expressed in the recently released minutes from the December meeting. Additionally, the fourth-quarter earnings season is likely to draw some attention, with a number of big banks -- which have seen a rapid rise in short interest of late -- on tap to report near week's end, including potential contrarian candidate JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM).

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Published on Nov 25, 2016 at 10:52 AM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:27 PM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
It was a short week on Wall Street -- with markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and stock trading ending early at 1 p.m. ET today -- but there was certainly plenty of action to hold traders' attention. In fact, for the first time in 17 years, the Dow, S&P 500 Index (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (COMP), and Russell 2000 Index (RUT) simultaneously closed at all-time peaks. And while the two-day streak was broken on Wednesday, blue-chip and small-cap stocks continued their record-setting run ahead of the holiday -- with the the RUT widening its daily win streak to a 20-year best. Plus, all four major benchmarks are trading higher today, and on track for notable weekly gains -- although the round-number 19,000 mark could prove meddlesome for the Dow in the near term.

Drilling down on specific sectors, chipmakers roared higher throughout the Thanksgiving week -- echoing the historically bullish trend for semiconductors -- with the Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) notching a record high of $71.77 on Wednesday, and on track for a nearly 2% weekly advance. Part of the upside was due to a positive write-up in Barron's last weekend, which specifically called out NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) as chip stocks with upside potential.

Retailers had quite a week, too, which should be expected, given the sector's historically positive price action in the lead-up to Black Friday -- with early numbers suggesting strong sales for the shopping holiday. Nevertheless, looking at the charts of several retail stocks, a number of names just popped up on a list of the most overbought S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks compiled by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White -- including Macy's Inc (NYSE:M), which waxed optimistic on Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Thanksgiving Day sales -- suggesting near-term caution should be in place.

Elsewhere, a big sell-off in biotechs on Wednesday weighed on the COMP, causing it to be the only major U.S. benchmark to settle the session in negative territory. Pressuring the sector was a devastating turn of events for Juno Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:JUNO) and disappointing drug data for Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY). A severe price-target cut for embattled drugmaker Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX) only poured salt on the proverbial wound.

Elsewhere, gold prices tumbled as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) extended its trek into 13-year-high territory -- although several signs have emerged that the currency's momentum against the Japanese yen could slow. Nevertheless, December-dated gold futures were last seen down 0.3% at $1,188.90 -- on track to log a third straight weekly loss.

Looking ahead, both gold and the U.S. dollar could continue to be in focus next week, with a number of key economic reports due ahead of the December Fed meeting, with this week's release of the November meeting minutes taking a rather hawkish tone. Meanwhile, although short-term S&P bulls are likely hoping for a positive post-Black Friday week, traders should be aware of several stumbling blocks stocks are staring down at the moment.

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Published on Jan 13, 2017 at 1:13 PM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:26 PM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
The Dow has continued to dance around the psychologically important 20,000 mark this week, but it was the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) that stole the spotlight. Specifically, the tech-heavy benchmark carved out a series of new highs -- as did its under-the-radar counterpart, the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) -- helped by a surge in so-called "FANG" stocks. Facebook Inc (FB), for instance, is on track for a 4.5% weekly advance, boosted by a round of bullish brokerage notes. And while shares of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) failed to capitalize on rumors it's a potential target for a Facebook takeover, the stock swung into positive week-to-date territory today on some upbeat analyst attention. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) also saw their fair shares of positive price action, up 3% and 1% week-to-date, respectively.

Meanwhile, Wednesday's Trump-related crash in biotechs -- which had started the week strong -- briefly stalled the COMP's uptrend, with the iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB) sinking after the president-elect said drug companies are "getting away with murder." The healthcare-heavy exchange-traded fund (ETF) is set to close out the week with a modest gain, however, the mid-week pullback has some of IBB's biggest holdings hovering near critical technical levels, including Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN) and Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB).

Trump's press conference also fueled big moves for the Mexican peso, as well as the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) -- both of which have struggled since the U.S. presidential election -- after the president-elect reiterated his support for imposing large import tariffs. In fact, Trump's Twitter feed shined the spotlight on automakers Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE:FCAU) and Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) early in the week, praising both companies for increasing domestic investment. FCAU couldn't maintain this Trump-inspired momentum, however, and came crashing back down to earth on Thursday, after the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) pointed an accusatory finger at the automaker.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off -- although aluminum giant Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) broke a long-standing tradition of being the first firm to report, following its split last fall. As such, big banks took center stage -- and are key events to watch, according to Schaeffer's Senior Equity Analyst Joe Bell, CMT --  a trend that will accelerate in next week's trading. This week, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) has emerged as the one to beat, and could have room to run, although bank stocks Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) are trading higher after an initial negative reaction to their respective companies' results.

Looking ahead, traders will be eager to see if the Trump rally will continue through next Friday's inauguration, when Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the U.S. While investor optimism continues to hover around extreme levels -- although this indicator suggests we're not quite at the euphoria stage of the sentiment cycle -- the Dow's repeated failure of the round 20,000 mark could translate into near-term trouble for stocks. Nevertheless, most major U.S. benchmarks are trading higher this afternoon, with the COMP on track for a big weekly gain. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Dow, meanwhile, are on pace to log weekly losses.

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Published on Apr 1, 2015 at 7:51 AM
Updated on Jul 9, 2020 at 1:25 PM
  • General

With the markets closed for Good Friday on April 3, it's an apt time to take a look at how stocks have performed around Easter. I'll examine what the market has done on the days surrounding the holiday, and I'll unveil an interesting stat on how the rest of the year pans out depending on the year-to-date return through Easter.

Days Surrounding Easter: Looking at the last 30 years, I summarized the S&P 500 Index (SPX) returns for the Wednesday before Easter (today), the Thursday before Easter, and the Monday after Easter. Today is historically a pretty bearish day, averaging a slight loss and positive less than half the time. However, tomorrow -- the last session before Easter -- is typically a very good day for the markets. It averages a return of 0.45%, and is positive 67% of the time.

When stocks resume trading after the long holiday, we seem to give back some of the gains. The day after Easter averages a loss of 0.18%, and is positive a paltry 37% of the time over the past 30 years. It seems that over the past three decades, a trader could have done pretty well by buying at the end of today and selling at the end of tomorrow.

SPX Daily Returns Around Easter Last 30 Years

The Rest of the Year: The table below is pretty interesting. Apparently, the market's performance on the year up to Easter is pretty important for the rest of the year. When the SPX is positive on the year through Easter, the rest of the year has been positive an impressive 90% of the time, and averages a gain of almost 10%.

Contrast that to when the index is down year-to-date through the holiday. In that case, the index declines an average of 2.88%, and is positive less than half the time.

Currently, the SPX sits just 0.4% above the year-to-date breakeven level of 2,058.90. From the table below, you could conclude it's pretty important for the broad-market barometer to hold this level through the end of the week. But in reality, I doubt a single percentage-point drop over the next couple of days means anything to forecasting the rest of the year.

SPX Rest-of-Year Returns After Easter

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