Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 4:30 PM
  • Market Recap
   
Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 3:32 PM
  • Technical Analysis

SoFi Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SOFI) is gearing up for its second-quarter earnings report, due out before the open on Tuesday, July 29. Analysts anticipate earnings of 6 cents per share on revenue of $805.44 million, representing significant growth from the same quarter last year. 

On the charts, SOFI has been shooting higher since early April, recently hitting a July 18, more than three-year high of $22.74. The $20 level appears to be moving in as potential support, swooping in to catch the latest pullback alongside the 20-day moving average. Valued at $21.50 at last glance, the equity is up 39.6% year-to-date. 

SOFI July24

Looking at SOFI's post-earnings history, the stock closed only three of its last eight next-day sessions lower, though this includes a 10.3% drop this past January. This time around, the options pits are pricing in an earnings swing of 11.3%, regardless of direction, which is a bit larger than the 8.8% move the stock as averaged over the past two years. 

Despite the stock's recent climb, short interest still represents 14.3% of its available float. In the event of a positive report next week, short covering could push the stock even higher. 

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 12:47 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock was last seen down 0.9% at $1,165.72, trading at its lowest level since May 15 and on track for its third-straight daily loss, as well as its fourth consecutive week in the red. The security is up 30.8% in 2025, however, and sports an even healthier 83.4% year-over-year lead. Even better, a historically bullish trendline could soon help the shares move closer to their June 30, record high of $1,341.15.

Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, NFLX's recent pullback placed it within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average. Shares were above this trendline in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, and spent 80% of the past two months above it.

Within these parameters, eight other signals occurred over the past three years, after which the stock was higher one month later 88% of the time, averaging a 12.2% gain. Should similar move happen, shares would land at $1,307.93 -- just shy of their record peak.

NFLX 80 Day

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could create additional headwinds. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), NFLX's 50-day put/call volume ratio sits higher than 96% of annual readings.

Options look affordably priced, making this an ideal time to bet on Netflix stock's next moves. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 27%, which stands in the 7th percentile of readings from the past year, suggesting options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 12:25 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 12:00 PM
  • The Week Ahead
 
Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 11:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Clothing retailer American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE:AEO) is moving 6.5% higher to trade at $11.53 this morning, after the company revealed its new denim campaign with Actress Sydney Sweeney, which includes a limited edition "The Sydney Jean" jacket. The purpose behind the campaign is to encourage more Gen-Z business.

AEO is eyeing its third-straight pop, as well as its best daily performance since May 12. The security yesterday broke above long-term resistance at the 50-day moving average, continuing to chip away at tis 31% year-to-date deficit.

Short interest has been on the rise of late. Up 24% in the past two reporting periods, this accounts for 13.1% of the stock's total available float. At the equity's average pace of daily trading, it would take nearly three days for shorts to buy back their bearish bets.

It's also worth noting that the stock has tended to underperform volatility expectations, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 12 out of 100. In other words, despite today's pop, AEO remains a good selling candidate.

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 11:07 AM
  • Most Active Options Update

Meme stocks are back in a big way this week. Retail traders have started to scoop up heavily-shorted stocks again, looking to rinse-and-repeat the GameStop (GME) effect from 2020. One such stock is real estate platform OpenDoor Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:OPEN), after reports that EMJ Capital founder and activist investor Eric Jackson was eyeing the company. The penny stock is part of the newly-coined DORK trade, named for the tickers Krispy Kreme (DNUT), OpenDoor (OPEN), Rocket Companies (RKT), and Kohl's (KSS). 

Options traders are getting in on the fun, as OPEN landed on Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of equities with the highest options volume over the past two weeks. In the last 10 sessions, the stock has seen 7,198,384 calls and 2,744,586 puts exchanged, a crazy amount for a company with a meager $1.9 billion market cap. The most popular contract during this time frame has been the weekly 7/25 3-strike call and the 2.5 strike in the same series.

MAO July 24

At last check, OPEN was up 19.7% to trade at $2.74. The stock has added 386% in July, with 300% of this following July 11. The equity has finished 13 of the last 17 sessions higher, with eight of those moves by double digits. The shares traded as high as $4.97 on Monday, but are now not far off their July 2024 level of $2.41.

OPEN MAO

Like most stocks targeted by retail traders, the short squeeze potential is the main allure. Short interest fell 11% in the most recent reporting period, yet the 135 million shares sold short still accounts for 21% of OPEN's total available float.

Those purchasing OPEN's near-term options have been willing to pay a pretty penny. The stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 277% rests just one percentage point from a 52-week peak, meaning the options market has been pricing in some steep volatility expectations.

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 11:01 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

IBM (NYSE:IBM) was last seen down 9.9% at $254.13, eyeing its worst daily drop since October 2021, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in response. The tech firm is brushing off better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue results, after the company missed software sales estimates. Three analysts lifted their price targets after the event, while BofA Global Research slashed its price target by $10 to $310. 

Today's bear gap has IBM dropping to its lowest levels since mid-May, moving sharply away from its June 25 record high of $296.16. The 150-day moving average looks like it will move in as support for today's pullback, however. Year-to-date, the equity is up 16.5%. 

Unsurprisingly, options traders are blasting IBM in response. So far, 52,000 calls and 69,000 puts have been exchanged, which is already 12 times the amount typically seen in a day. The November 225 put is the most popular by far, with new positions being sold to open there. 

Notably, IBM has tended to outperform options traders' volatility expectations over the past year. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 85 out of 100. 

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 10:41 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) stock is down 12.1% to trade at $46.41 at last glance, after the restaurant chain missed second-quarter revenue expectations and cut its annual sales forecast. In response, the security attracted no fewer than seven price-target cuts, including one from J.P. Morgan Securities to $52 from $54.

There's plenty of room for more bear notes to roll in, as 23 of the 31 analysts in coverage call the equity a "buy" or better. Plus, the 12-month consensus target price of $59.80 is still a 29% premium to current levels.

Shares earlier gapped to their lowest level since April, and are now on track for their biggest single-day percentage loss since October 2017. The security is also breaking below former support at the 80-day moving average. So far this year, CMG has shaved off 23.2%

An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could generate additional headwinds. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 5.22 sits higher than 97% of readings from the past year.

Drilling down to today's options activity, 72,000 calls and 56,000 puts have already crossed the tape, which is five times the volume typically seen at this point. The most active contract is the weekly 7/25 46-strike call, where new positions are currently being bought to open.

Published on Jul 24, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Updated on Jul 24, 2025 at 9:28 AM
  • Opening View
Published on Jul 23, 2025 at 4:27 PM
  • Market Recap
   
Published on Jul 23, 2025 at 3:27 PM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Quantitative Analysis

Quantum computing has been a hot topic this year, as the technology reaches critical mass. Sector leader IonQ Inc (NYSE:IONQ) sports a 412% year-over-year lead, but for 2025 it is only marginally above its year-to-date breakeven level. Despite a 1% quarterly drawdown, the recent weakness could have bullish implications, if past is precedent.

IonQ stock is within one standard deviation of its 50-day moving average. For the purpose of this study, Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White defines that as the equity trading above the moving average 80% of the time over the last two months, and closing north of the trendline in eight of the last 10 sessions.

Per White’s data, three similar signals have occurred during the past three years. IONQ was higher one month later 67% of the time, averaging a one-month gain of nearly 20%. From their current perch at $42.67, a move of similar magnitude would have the shares back above $50 for the first time since January.

IONQ

There’s some short squeeze potential as well. Short interest is up 3% in the most recent reporting period, and the 36.51 million shares sold short account for 13.3% of IONQ's total available float. 

There could also be an unwinding of bearish bets in the options pits. The stock’s 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.72 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits in the 100th percentile of readings from the past year.

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