Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jul 1, 2025 at 10:35 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Buzz Stocks

Sweetgreen Inc (NYSE:SG) stock is down 4.5% to trade at $14.21 at last glance, after TD Cowen downgraded the restaurant chain to "hold" from "buy" and trimmed its price target to $15 from $25.  The analyst noted same-store sales are unlikely to return to normal in 2026, and added urban presence remains pressured amid intensified competition and a plateaued return to office dynamics.

SG is today pacing its worst single-day percentage drop since June 5. While the rest of the broad market rallied in the second quarter, SG shares wrapped their third-straight quarterly loss and worst quarter since December 2022. The stock is down more than 56% so far in 2025, but support at $12.50 looks ready to contain losses.

This could be the start of a downgrade, bear note reaction. Of the 14 brokerages covering SG, eight maintain "buy" or better ratings, with not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $22.27 is a 57% premium to its current perch.

An unwinding of optimism amongst options traders could provide additional headwinds, per the security's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.07 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks higher than 95% of readings from the past year.

That sentiment shift seems to be underway. So far today, 5,057 puts have already crossed the tape -- 6 times the intraday average volume -- compared to 2,566 calls. The most active contract is the January 16, 2026 10-strike put, where new positions are now being opened.

Published on Jul 1, 2025 at 9:30 AM
  • Bernie's Content
 
Published on Jul 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Updated on Jul 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 4:23 PM
  • Market Recap
   
Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Updated on Jun 30, 2025 at 3:20 PM
  • Technical Analysis

Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META) stock hit a record high of $747.90 today, after news that the tech giant ramped up its artificial intelligence (AI) efforts. The company reportedly hired four more researchers from OpenAI for its 'superintelligence' team, and the shares are continuing their rally from mid-April lows in response. With recent support at the 20-day moving average, META is on track for its fifth win in six sessions. Year-to-date, the equity is up 26%. 

The recent price action has attracted the attention of options bulls. META's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.16 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than all other readings from the past year. These options are reasonably priced at the moment, too, per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 25%, which ranks in the very low 4th percentile of its annual range. 

META June30

Meanwhile, BigBear.ai Holdings Inc (NYSE:BBAI) was last seen up 20.5% at $7.04, after news that the company is partnering with Easy Lease and Vigilix Technology Investment in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to accelerate AI adoption across several industries. Trading at its highest levels since February, BBAI is up 58.9% since the start of the year. 

BBAI's options pits are typically highly skewed toward calls. The security has seen 8.88 calls exchanged for every put in the last 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Today, 257,000 calls have crossed the tape in comparison to 71,000 puts, with overall volume already at 3.1 times the daily average. The weekly 7/3 7-strike call is the most popular, with new positions being opened there. 

BBAI June30

 

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 3:13 PM
  • Strategies and Concepts
  • Quantitative Analysis

FTAI Aviation Ltd (NASDAQ:FTAI) stock is down 2.7% to trade at $115.34, heading for its lowest close since May 23. The aerospace concern is down 19.9% in 2025, but if past is precedent, could be ready to rally. 

FTAI is within one standard deviation of its 50-day moving average. For the purpose of this study, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White defines that as the equity trading above the moving average 80% of the time over the last two months, and closing north of the trendline in eight of the last 10 sessions.

Per White's data, 11 similar signals have occurred during the past three years. FTAI was higher one month later 82% of the time, averaging a one-month gain of 10.1%. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the stock back in its consolidation area, and eat into its nine-month deficit of 13.3%. Also worth noting on the chart below is the double bottom from earlier in the summer.

FTAI Stock

A short squeeze could nudge the shares along as well. Short interest fell 15.4% in the two most recent reporting periods, yet the 6.27 million shares sold short still account for 6.2% of FTAI's total available float. At the equity's average pace of trading, it would take shorts almost four trading days to buy back their bearish bets. 

Options are an attractive choice, per the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 56% that sits in the 20th percentile of its annual range. This suggests options traders have lower-than-usual volatility expectations. FTAI has consistently exceeded their volatility estimates though, as reflected in its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 90 out of 100. In other words, the security has historically delivered larger-than-expected price swings.

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 2:51 PM
  • Technical Analysis

Cloudflare Inc (NYSE:NET) shares are up 0.7% to trade at $195.32, and earlier surged to a more than three-year high of $196.20, with support from their 20-day moving average. The cybersecurity stock is pacing for a sixth-straight gain and now sports a 135.7% year-over-year lead, with a 81.4% lead amassed so far in 2025. This rally is showing no signs of slowing down, either, thanks to a historically bullish signal now flashing.

Digging deeper, Cloudflare stock's recent peak comes amid low implied volatility (IV), per its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 37%, which sits in the 15th percentile of its annual range. This has occurred five other times over the past five years, after which the equity was higher one month later 80% of the time, with a 11.3% pop. From its current perch, a similar move would place FIVE back above $217 for the first time since 2021.

NET 20 Day

While the majority of analysts are already bullish on NET, there is still pessimism left to unwind. Of the 31 firms in coverage, 13 carry a tepid "hold" or worse rating. In addition, the 12-month consensus target price of $159.83 is an 18.1% discount to current levels, leaving ample room for price-target hikes.

Those looking to cash in on NET's potential run higher should consider options. This is per the security's Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which ranks high at 80 out of 100, which means it has tended to exceed volatility expectations over the past year -- a boon for options buyers.

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 12:06 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 11:04 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) stock is 1.6% higher to trade at $123.61 at last check, after Jefferies upgraded it to "buy" from "hold," and hiked its price objective to $144 from $100. The firm cited two new cruise ships that may contribute over $1 billion in revenue, limited risk of a park slowdown in the second half of 2025, a solid six-month content and sports slate, and direct-to-consumer margin expansion.

DIS surged to a two-year high of $124.69 right out of the gate, and is on track for its sixth-straight daily gain. Shares are also looking build on May's 24.3% gain -- the best monthly performance since January 2023 -- with a 9.3% pop for June. In the last 12 months, DIS added 24.4%.

Short-term options traders have been much more bearish than usual. This is per Walt Disney stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR), which ranks in the 84th percentile of readings from the past 12 months. An unwinding of pessimism could fuel additional tailwinds for the shares. 

Options are looking quite affordable. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 18% sits in the 1st percentile of its annual range, indicating options traders are currently pricing in low volatility expectations. Plus, its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 97 out of 100 indicates DIS has historically delivered larger-than-expected price swings.

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 10:59 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Tech stocks Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE:HPE) and Juniper Networks Inc (NYSE:JNPR) are both rallying this morning, after the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) settled its lawsuit challenging the former's $14 billion all-cash acquisition of the latter.

The settlement requires that the merged company divests of HPE's Instant On wireless networking business and license the source code for Juniper's Mist artificial intelligence (AI) software used in its products. 

HPE was last seen up 13.3% to trade at $20.69, gapping to its highest levels since February. The move also has shares eyeing a close above the 320-day moving average for the first time since March, and moving away from an extended consolidation at $18. The stock is less than 3% below both its year-to-date and year-over-year breakeven levels. 

JNPR is up 8.4% at $39.90, breaking into positive territory for 2025 and hitting fresh 14-year highs. Should this price action hold, the equity is on track for its best single-session gain since January 2024. 

Options bulls are targeting both stocks after the news. So far, HPE has seen 53,000 calls exchanged -- 9 times the intraday average -- in comparison to 11,000 puts, with the most activity at the July 21.50 call, where positions are being opened. Juniper stock has seen 7,332 calls cross the tape -- 6 times the call volume typically seen at this point. The July 40 call is the most popular JNPR contract, with new positions being opened there. 

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 10:50 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shares of software name Oracle Corp Inc (NYSE:ORCL) are charging higher, up 5.6% at $221.72, at last glance, after an upgrade from Stifel to "buy" from "hold. The firm cited the company's cloud momentum, throwing in a lofty price-target hike to $250 from $180. Shortly after the bull note, Oracle also announced an anonymous cloud deal worth up to $30 billion in annual revenue starting in 2028.

Oracle has been an outperformer on the charts for some time now, up 60% over the last 12 months and 33% in 2025. A recent post-earnings bull gap contributed to it's impressive climb, which includes a more than 86% upswing from its April bottom. Today's session high of $228.17 marks a new record for ORCL.

Of the 35 in coverage, there are still 13 analysts sporting a tepid "hold" recommendation. Should this sentiment begin to unwind, even more bull notes may be on the horizon.

Per Oracle stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rating of 97 out of 100, the shares have tended to exceed volatility expectations. Options are also looking affordable, per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 27%, which ranks in the 13th percentile of its annual range.

Published on Jun 30, 2025 at 9:12 AM
  • Opening View
 

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