Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on May 9, 2025 at 9:18 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on May 8, 2025 at 4:26 PM
  • Market Recap
  
Published on May 8, 2025 at 2:59 PM
  • Technical Analysis

Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) will announce its latest quarterly report before the open on Tuesday, May 13. The company is expected to post losses of nine cents per share on revenue of $1.16 billion, both of which are significantly lower than the same quarter last year. 

At last glance, UAA was up 4.5% at $5.97. The $6 level has kept a tight lid on gains since the stock's April 3 bear gap, along with long-term pressure from the 40-day moving average. Year to date, the equity is down 27.9%. 

UAA May8

The majority of analysts are bearish ahead of the event, with 20 of the 23 in coverage carrying a "hold" or worse rating. Yesterday, Telsey Advisory slashed its price target to $7 from $10, and the analyst consensus sits at $7.67.

Over the last two years, Under Armour stock only closed three post-earnings sessions lower, though the most recent was this past February. The stock has averaged an 8% next-day swing, regardless of direction, which is lower than the 12.5% move the options pits are pricing in this time around. 

Published on May 8, 2025 at 12:22 PM
  • Strategies and Concepts

Some traders and investors may not have a complete understanding of the way their profits or losses will be taxed and how that impacts profit margin, or capital gains taxes, and how these taxes can impact profit margins. However, traders can implement tax planning strategies to help you mitigate capital gains taxes through a deeper understanding of options trading and the applicable taxes.

In this article, we will break down exactly what tax law changes have occurred between 2024 and 2025 that could impact traders and investors in the United States as well as get specific about how options trading is taxed and the difference between being classified as a "trader" versus an "investor" by the IRS.

What Trading-Related Tax Laws Changed Between 2024 and 2025?

Yes, several tax law changes between 2024 and 2025 could impact traders and investors in the United States. Here's a concise summary of the key updates:

1. Inflation-Adjusted Capital Gains Tax Brackets

For 2025, the IRS has adjusted the income thresholds for long-term capital gains tax rates to account for inflation. The tax rates remain at 0%, 15%, and 20%, but the income limits have increased. For example, single filers can now earn up to $48,350 (previously $47,025) and still qualify for the 0% rate. (IRS Updates Capital Gains Tax Rates for 2025: Here’s What You Need to Know - Paws Calais)

2. Proposed Increase in Capital Gains Tax Rates for High Earners

President Biden's FY 2025 budget proposal suggests raising the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6% for individuals earning over $1 million annually. This proposal is still under consideration and has not been enacted into law.

3. Proposed Closure of the Carried Interest Loophole

The Trump administration has expressed intentions to eliminate the "carried interest" tax loophole, which allows private equity and hedge fund managers to pay lower capital gains tax rates on certain earnings. While this move aligns with broader tax reform efforts, it has not yet been implemented.

4. Introduction of the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act

Senator Ted Cruz introduced the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act of 2025, aiming to index the cost basis of capital assets to inflation. This measure would adjust the calculation of capital gains to reflect inflation, potentially reducing tax liabilities for investors. The bill is currently pending in Congress.

5. Ongoing Tax Reform Discussions

Congress is actively working on a new tax package intended to extend provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including lower tax rates and higher deductions. While lawmakers aim to pass the bill by Memorial Day, most experts believe the process may extend into the second half of 2025.

Note: Many of these changes are proposals and have not yet been enacted into law. It's essential to stay informed about legislative developments and consult with a tax professional to understand how these potential changes may affect your individual situation.

Are Options Trading Losses Tax-Deductible?

"Generally, yes, losses incurred from trading options are considered short-term capital losses depending on the length of time that an options trader holders the option. Accordingly, as a capital loss, traders can only use losses to offset capital gains." -- Attorney Josh Lowenthal

"Losses on options for "investors" are typically treated as capital losses which offset capital gains and up to $3k of other income per year. However, certain option traders may qualify for "trader" status which allows for an election to "mark-to-market" at the end of the year.  If this "mark-to-market" election is made, the taxpayer is allowed to classify losses as ordinary losses which can offset any type of income with no limits, be exempted from wash sale rules, but must assume any open position on December 31st are closed." -- Eric Bronnenkant, CPA, CFP at Betterment

What is the IRS Wash Sale Rule? According to Fidelity, options traders must also pay attention to the IRS Wash Sale Rule, which "prohibits selling an investment for a loss and replacing it with the same or a "substantially identical" investment 30 days before or after the sale. If you do have a wash sale, the IRS will not allow you to write off the investment loss which could make your taxes for the year higher than you hoped."

Are Options Trading Profits Taxed?"

In short, yes, unless a Mark-to-Market election is made, options are considered Capital in nature rather than ordinary. As such, any gains in excess of capital losses are going to be taxed at capital gains rates." -- Attorney Josh Lowenthal

"Net profits from options trading are typically subject to capital gains taxes for taxpayer's treated as investors. Most gains are treated as short-term capital gains unless a long options position is held for over 1 year (which would qualify for long-term gains treatment). Short options positions which are short covered or expire worthless have a short-term holding period regardless of how long the contract was open. If the taxpayer qualifies for "trader" status, net trading profits are taxed as ordinary income (after business expenses but exempt from self-employment tax)."  -- Eric Bronnenkant, CPA, CFP at Betterment

What are capital gains? Capital gains are generally defined as the profits received from selling a capital asset – or an investment – such as stock market assets or property. The capital gains tax is a form of double taxation, which means after the profits from selling the asset are taxed once; a double tax is imposed on those same profits.

What is a Mark-to-Market election? According to the Tax Advisor, "Under the mark-to-market rules, dealers and eligible traders are treated as having sold all their securities on the last day of the tax year at their fair market value (FMV), causing gain or loss to be taken into account for the year."

How can I be classified as a Trader by the IRS instead of an Investor?

According to Mr. Bronnenkant, "If an investor is trying to evaluate whether they meet the requirements for "trader" status and the "mark-to-market" election, they should seek out a tax advisor who has significant experience with active trading clients. The IRS does not have a bright line test but the more factors in the taxpayer's favor, the more likely it is that they can qualify.  Making these elections always comes with the risk that the IRS may disagree with their position and reclassify the taxpayer back to "investor" status (losing ordinary loss treatment , losing deduction for trading expenses, and bringing back the wash sale rules). The IRS states that the "following facts and circumstances should be considered in determining if your activity is a securities trading business:

1. Typical holding periods for securities bought and sold;
2. The frequency and dollar amount of your trades during the year;
3. The extent to which you pursue the activity to produce income for a livelihood; and
4. The amount of time you devote to the activity."

Still confused? An expert can pull it all together for us!

Let's start with Ryan Flanders CFA, Chief Investment Officer of The Flanders Group. Ryan says, "Trading options are considered the same as trading any other security and fall under the same IRC tax code.  For this analysis, we will assume options are being bought and sold as a trading mechanism, rather than with the intention of allowing them to be exercised (as they are designed).

As with any other security, a trader may use short term-losses to offset short-term gains and long-term losses to offset long-term gains.  After that step, you will then reconcile short-term gain/loss with long-term gain/loss to determine whether you benefit from capital gain tax treatment (long-term) or if its taxed as ordinary income (short-term).  Keep in mind options gains and losses are combined with all other capital assets, so you must account for all securities together to determine your gains and losses (including stocks, bonds, crypto, etc.). 

Most of the time options are considered to be short-term rather than long-term as you must hold the contract for longer than 365 days for it to be considered a long-term gain/loss.  Another item that often trips up option traders is the IRS wash sale rule, which disallows a loss if you sell and then repurchase a "substantially-identical" investments 30 days before or after the sale.  Often traders will try to "scalp" the same expiry and strike throughout the day, which can trip up the wash-sale rule and disallow any potential losses that had accumulated from that position."

We spoke with Stuart Weichsel, a partner at Gallet Dreyer & Berkey. According to Weichsel, "Cash settled equity options are subject to simple rules, with many complex exceptions.  When options are exercised through the purchase or sale of the underlying security (instead of closed out), the option transaction and the underlying purchase or sale are integrated. Some options are subject to the special Sec. 1256 mark-to-market rules.  

All options are subject to the Sec. 1292 straddle rules--preventing a taxpayer from entering into offsetting option transactions and recognizing only the “loss leg”  of the positions in the first tax year to maximize tax losses while leaving unrealized gains.  (There is an exception to the Sec. 1292 rules for a taxpayer issuing a “covered call.”  The close out of the call at a loss is not suspended despite the offsetting gain on the covered stock).

Finally, the Sec. 1259 Constructive Sale rules may apply if the equity options are used to limit risk in an appreciated position, engaging in a “constructive sale.”   Using options to enter into a constructive sale may cause the realization (and taxation) of the otherwise unrealized gain on the appreciated position." 

Published on May 8, 2025 at 12:20 PM
  • Analyst Update

D-Wave Quantum Inc (NYSE:QBTS) and IONQ Inc (NYSE:IONQ) are surging today, after both quantum computing companies reported smaller-than-expected losses for the first quarter, as well as revenue beats. IONQ also scored a price-target hike from Morgan Stanley to $30 from $29, while Needham lowered its price objective to $50 from $54.

QBTS was last seen up 39.9% at $9.64, gapping above former pressure at the $8 level and trading at its highest level since late March. Shares are bouncing off steady support from the 100-day moving average as they look to snap a three-day losing streak with their best daily gain since March 14. Year-over-year, the equity is up 598%. 

IONQ is up a more modest 2.2% to trade at $29.80 at last glance, and sports a 239.3% year-over-year lead. Shares are also on track for their first win in the past four sessions, but have yet to conquer a longer-term ceiling at the $32 region, though they earlier hit their highest level since February. The ascending 20-day trendline has been supporting the security since April.

Options bulls are blasting both QBTS and IONQ today, with call volume running at 16 and four times the intraday average volume, respectively. For the former, the May 10 call is the most popular contract, and for the latter it's the July 30 call.

Published on May 8, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Updated on May 8, 2025 at 12:04 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are firmly higher midday, enjoying tailwinds from the newly announced trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is up 391 points at last glance, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) sit comfortably higher as well. 

Investors are also unpacking lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims, while wholesale inventories increased 0.4% in March compared to estimates of 0.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. productivity decreased at a 0.8% annual rate in the first quarter -- its first drop since the second quarter of 2022. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • AI-powered stock soaring after an upbeat quarter. 
  • Peloton shares dragged on wider-than-expected loss. 
  • Plus, options bulls blast QBTS; and two stocks moving opposite directions after earnings. 

mmc may 8

D-Wave Quantum Inc (NYSE:QBTS) is the most popular stock amongst options traders today, with 202,000 calls and 38,000 puts exchanged so far -- 13 times the average daily options volume. The May 10 call accounts for a large amount of this bullish volume, with new positions being opened there. At last glance, the quantum computing stock was up 33.6% at $9.20, following upbeat first-quarter earnings results. Year to date, QBTS is up 10.2%, with support below at the 100-day moving average. 

QBTS May8

Fintech stock Dave Inc (NASDAQ:DAVE) is one of the top performers on the Nasdaq today, after the company posted better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue and lifted its full-year forecast. At last glance, DAVE was up 41% at $151.99, hitting three-year highs and eyeing its best daily pop since November. Since the start of the year, the equity is up 75.4%. 

Meanwhile, Cars.com Inc (NYSE:CARS) is down 12.8% at $9.87, after the company reported lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue and suspended its full-year guidance. Now trading at nearly three-year lows, CARS is off 43.2% year to date. 

Published on May 8, 2025 at 10:52 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) is down 3.5% to trade at $91.20 at last check, after the e-commerce name issued disappointing guidance, citing tariff uncertainty. The company also reported first-quarter profits of 25 cents per share -- in line with estimates -- as well as revenue beat. 

Analysts have yet to chime in, despite the majority leaning bullish. Of the 45 in coverage, 28 call Shopify stock a "buy" or better, while its 12-month consensus target price of $117.87 is a 28.5% discount to current levels. In other words, shares look overdue for a round of bear notes.

On the charts, SHOP is testing support at $90 after conquering the region in late March. Longer term, the $100 level and 60-day moving average have kept gains contained over the last couple of months. The security is down 15% so far in 2025, but sports a 44.1% year-over-year lead.

The options pits are buzzing, with 35,000 calls and 29,000 puts across the tape so far, or 6 times the volume typically seen at this point. Most popular is the weekly 5/23 92-strike call, where new positions are being opened.

The equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 89% of readings from the past year. This means long-term options traders are bearish.

Published on May 8, 2025 at 10:49 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Fitness stock Peloton Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:PTON) is down 13.8% at $6.02, after the company's mixed fiscal third-quarter earnings results. Peloton posted losses of 12 cents per share, wider than the expected losses of 7 cents per share but still up 73% since the same quarter last year. The firm also lifted its 2025 outlook, while revenue of $624 million beat expectations but fell year-over-year. 

Though today's move might look dramatic, it's worth noting that PTON has averaged a 19% post-earnings swing -- regardless of direction -- over the past two years. Before today, $7 -- an area that coincides with its 80-day moving average -- had been keeping a firm lid on gains since late February. Year to date, the equity is down 29.4%.  Another explainer for the double-digit drop today could be the equity's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI), seen yesterday deep in "oversold" territory at 80. 

Options bulls appear to be eyeing PTON on the dip. So far, 65,000 calls have been exchanged in comparison to 8,302 puts, and overall options volume has already hit 2.5 times the average daily amount. The weekly 5/9 6-strike call is the most popular, followed by the June 8 call. 

This call bias is nothing new. Over the past two weeks, according to the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 24,255 calls have changed hands, compared to just 4,447 puts.

Published on May 8, 2025 at 10:43 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) stock is up 15.5% at $350.56 at last glance, after the AI-powered marketing platform posted blowout quarterly results and announced a major business shift. The company reported earnings of $1.67 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $1.45, while revenue came in at $1.48 billion — also topping expectations. AppLovin also announced plans to sell its mobile gaming business to Tripledot Studios in a deal valued at $800 million in cash.

At least five analysts have responded with price-target hikes, the largest of which came from Morgan Stanley to $420 from $350. Options traders are also piling in. More than 47,000 calls and 35,000 puts have changed hands so far, 4 times the average intraday volume, with new positions opening at the most active July 350 call.

Thanks to today’s surge, APP is now up 8.2% in 2025 and extending its year-over-year lead to 373.1%. The security is heading for its third-straight weekly win and is trading back above the $350 level — a recent area of chart resistance — for the first time since late March.

Published on May 8, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Updated on May 8, 2025 at 9:22 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on May 7, 2025 at 4:24 PM
  • Market Recap
  
Published on May 7, 2025 at 2:34 PM
  • Most Active Options Update

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) stock was last seen down 7.6% to trade at $150.77. Per Bloomberg, Apple's (AAPL) Senior Vice President of Services Eddy Cue said that artificial intelligence (AI)-driven engines like ChatGPT could eventually replace standard search engines such as Google. Cue was testifying in the Department of Justice (DOJ) lawsuit against Alphabet, and stated that the Apple is "actively looking" to reshape its Safari web browser to prioritize AI.  

Options traders are targeting GOOGL, with 710,000 calls and 506,000 puts traded so far today, which is quadruple the intraday average volume. The most popular contract is the weekly 5/9 155-strike call, followed by the 150-strike put in that same series, with new positions opening at both.

Options look like an affordable way to bet on the security's next moves. This is according to GOOGL's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 30%, which ranks in the 21st percentile of its annual range.

Alphabet stock is on track for its worst single-day percentage drop since October 2023, drawing back closer to its April 7, 52-week low of $140.53 as it extends a 20.5% year-to-date deficit. Overhead pressure from the descending 60-day moving average has been capping the equity since early February.

GOOGL 60 Day

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