The Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years came in at 50 basis points. Redfin Corp (NASDAQ:RDFN) and Nu Holdings Ltd (NYSE:NU) both stand to benefit from lower interest rates, so let's take a look at how these stocks are performing below.

RDFN was last seen down 2.2% to trade at $13.91, brushing off a price-target hike from Piper Sandler to $7 from $4. The real estate concern notched a 52-week high of $14.75 earlier after a steady climb over the past few weeks, and appears to be finding support at $13.50. Shares have added 131.1% this quarter, and boast a 34.8% year-to-date lead.

Redfin stock also looks ripe for a short squeeze. Short interest added 5.2% in the most recent reporting period, yet the 20.62 million shares sold short account for 17.7% of the equity's available float.

NU is cooling off as well, down 1.2% to trade at $14.96 at last check, despite earlier matching yesterday's record high of $15.16. This peak followed a bounce off previous resistance at the $13.50 level. The bank name now sports a 106.4% year-to-date lead.

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could boost NU. This is per the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.41 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits higher than 93% of readings from the past year.

The competition between beverage names is a hot topic, and Jefferies chimed in today stating Red Bull's new flavors are "gaining shares" from Celsius Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CELH) and Monster Beverage Corp (NASDAQ:MNST). It's also worth noting that shorts have been building their positions on both, and short interest represents a large 16% of Celsius stock's available float, and 4% of Monster stock's. 

Celsius stock is underperforming on the charts, hitting a Sept. 6, 52-week low of $31.55. CELH's 20-day moving average helped guide it lower since May, and this trendline now coincides with recent pressure at the $35 level. CELH was last seen down 1.4% at $34.33 today, adding to its 37% year-to-date deficit. 

Monster Beverage stock has trended higher since its Aug. 8, 52-week low of $43.32, and was up 1.9% at $52.02 at last check. The equity is still down 9.7% in 2024, however, and could soon move back lower, as the $52 level where it resides rejected the shares in late July and early August.

Semiconductor maker Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) is slated to take to the earnings confessional, where it will report fiscal fourth-quarter financial results after the close on Wednesday, Sept. 25.

Looking over its last eight earnings reports, MU has a history of outsized moves the following trading session. The equity jumped 14.1% after its March earnings report, and fell 7.1% following its June results. Regardless of direction, the options pits are pricing in a 13%  move this time around. 

No stranger to bear notes, the chip stock recently received a rare double downgrade. Today, Wells Fargo cut its price target on the shares to $175 from $190, but maintained its "overweight" rating. It seems as though MU is overdue for more price-target cuts, considering its 12-month average price objective of $160.68 is an 84.4% premium to its current perch of $87.12.

Since touching an all-time high of $157.54 on June 18, shares have pulled back considerably, touching a more than five-month low of $84.12 on Sept. 12. In recent session, Micron stock's 320-day moving average has capped all attempts to move up on the charts, resulting in a modest 2.1% year-to-date gain.

MU short-term players have been incredibly call-biased. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) that sits higher than just 4% of readings from the past year. 

Space exploration stock Intuitive Machines Inc (NASDAQ:LUNR) is soaring today, up 49.4% to trade at $8.06, and earlier trading as high as $8.78. The boost comes after the company landed a $4.8 billion contract with NASA for near space missions, which will include the debut of its lunar satellite constellations. 

Today's pop has Intuitive Machines stock fully recovering its late-February downturn after news its moon lander, Odysseus, tipped over. Headed for its best day since a 50% pop on Feb. 20, the equity is up roughly 216% since the start of the year. 

Options traders are blasting the stock amid today's bull gap. So far, 127,000 calls and 42,000 puts have crossed the tape, which is already 4 times LUNR's average daily options volume. The September 10 call is the most popular by far, with new positions being bought to open there. 

An unwinding of short interest could also be contributing to today's surge, as 24.3% of the stock's available float is sold short. It would take shorts two days to cover, at LUNR's average pace of trading. 

Stock futures are pointed modestly higher this morning, with all of Wall Street awaiting the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision, due out at 2 p.m. ET. Investors are widely anticipating the first rate cut in four years, though there is still uncertainty whether it will be a half- or quarter-point move. In the meantime, this morning's economic data showed housing starts increased sharply in August, exceeding expectations, as mortgage rates continue to cool. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• How stocks could fare after the election, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. 
• This fintech stock doubled options traders' money.  
• Plus, SEDG downgraded, INTC extends rise, and SHOP receives bull note. 

5 Things You Need to Know Today

1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw over 1.6 million call contracts and 829,698 put contracts exchanged on Tuesday. The single-session equity put/call ratio fell to 0.51 and the 21-day moving average remained at 0.65.
2. Intuitive Machines Inc (NASDAQ:LUNR) stock is soaring this morning, up 51.1% premarket, after the space exploration name secured a multi-billion dollar contract from NASA. Heading into today, LUNR is already up 111.4% year to date. 
3. V.F. Corporation (NYSE:VFC) stock is up 3.3% before the bell, after the retailer was upgraded by Barclays to "overweight" from "equal weight." Should these gains hold, VFC will hit a fresh 2024 high and break into positive territory for the year. 
4. Shares of ResMed Inc (NYSE:RMD) are down 2.2% at last look, after Wolfe Research downgraded the medical device company to "underperform" from "peer perform." The firm cited increasing competition from Eli Lilly's (LLY) drug, GLP-1. RMD is up 45.8% year to date, and hit a two-year high just last week. 
5. What's coming up this week on Wall Street. 

Unpacking Imports, Exports Data out of Japan

Sell in May and go away is a well-known stock market adage. The table below explains where the saying came from, in which using S&P 500 Index (SPX) returns since 1948, we’re heading into the worst six-month stretch of the year.

From the end of April through October, the S&P 500 averaged a return of just 1.83%, with 66% of the returns positive. The other six months of the year averaged a gain of 6.85%, with 77% of the returns positive. With the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election in November, the analysis below examines how these trends change in election years.

Presidential Election Years vs. Other Years

The 1948 Presidential Election was the first one with an official federal election day (Tuesday after the first Monday in November). I looked at how the SPX performed in the six months leading up to Election Day since then. I split up the years depending on whether there was a Presidential election, mid-term election or an off year. The table below summarizes the six-month returns leading into Election Day.

As we saw above, the six months leading up to November have been unimpressive. The returns in the table above don’t correspond exactly with the returns below, but they are close. It’s encouraging that presidential election years are more bullish than other years, with an average gain of 4.67% and almost 90% of the returns positive. I was curious if stocks were more volatile heading into elections. Presidential election years are not significantly more volatile than other years. Looking at the standard deviation of returns, the mid-term years are more volatile than Presidential election years. Non-election years have only a slightly lower standard deviation of returns.

The current president, Joe Biden, is not running for reelection, but it's worth pointing out that in the 11 Presidential election years since 1948 in which there was an incumbent candidate, the SPX averaged a 7.57% return with an impressive 91% of the returns positive.

The 2024 election will not feature an incumbent, with Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, facing off against the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. In years with no incumbent, the index averaged barely above breakeven. The average is minimal despite the fact that 88% of returns were positive. That average is heavily skewed by the 2008 election, in which the SPX fell 28% in the six months before voting day.

Retail sales showed a surprise 0.1% gain in August, contributing to today's broader market tailwinds and boosting Treasury yields. Despite the better-than-expected reading, shares of Target Corp (NYSE:TGT), TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX), and Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) were last seen trading well within negative territory.

TGT is down 0.2% to trade at $152.53 at last glance, after the company yesterday announced it will hire 100,000 workers for the holiday season. The equity surged to its highest level since April after gaping to Aug. 5, year-to-date low of $132.42, and just bounced off the 40-day moving average last week. In the last 12 months, TGT has added roughly 28%.

TJX attempted to conquer its Aug. 28, all-time high of $121.12 in the previous session, but ultimately settled below the $120 level. The equity is down 0.5% to trade at $118.98 at last check, but still sports a 27% year-to-date lead and can rely on the 20-day moving average ready to contain any additional losses.

Cooling off from its Sept. 13, record high of $923.83, COST was last seen down 0.5% to trade at $903.23. The 20-day moving average has been guiding COST higher since early August, with the added benefit of a floor at $880. So far in 2024, Costco Wholesale stock has added 36.9%.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Players service more than doubled their money with our recommendation to buy Fidelity National Information Services Inc (NYSE:FIS) weekly 9/20 78-strike call. Below, let's unpack how investors achieved this healthy profit in just three weeks.

At the time of our recommendation on Aug. 23, FIS was in the midst of a post-earnings pop following the company's Aug. 6 results. The equity had just hit a new all-time high, and was pulling back to support at its 10-day moving average after breaking out of a weeks-long trading range between $73 and $78.

Options were affordably priced, too. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) ranked high than just 1% of readings from its annual range, suggesting options traders were pricing in much lower volatility expectations than usual.