Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Nov 26, 2024 at 12:06 PM
Updated on Nov 26, 2024 at 12:08 PM
  • Midday Market Check

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Published on Nov 26, 2024 at 11:02 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Semiconductor stock Semtech Corp (NASDAQ:SMTC) is soaring today, up 16% at $61.99 at last check, and earlier traded as high as $63.63, after the company announced better-than-expected third-quarter results and lifted its current-quarter revenue forecast.

No fewer than six analysts lifted their price targets after the news, including Craig-Hallum to $70 from $48. A short squeeze could be powering today's breakout, with a healthy 9.2% of SMTC's total available float sold short. 

Today's pop has SMTC jumping to its highest levels since August 2022, and headed for its largest single-day percentage gain since December 2023. On track for its sixth daily gain in the last seven sessions, the equity is up roughly 172% since the start of 2024. 

This morning, Semtech stock has already seen 4.2 times the options volume typically seen in a day. The December 55 call is the most popular, followed by the 75 call in the same series, with new positions being bought to open at the latter. 

Published on Nov 26, 2024 at 10:20 AM
Updated on Nov 26, 2024 at 10:30 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS) stock is down 19.9% to trade at $14.71 at last glance, after the retailer's third-quarter earnings and revenue missed estimates. The company also revealed Michaels CEO Ashley Buchanan will replace its current CEO Tom Kingsbury, effective Jan. 15. In response to the results, J.P. Morgan Securities cut its price target to $13 from $17.

KSS gapped to a fresh four-year low of $14.53 earlier, after running into familiar overhead pressure at the $19 level. Shares have also struggled with resistance at the 40-day moving average since late October, and are pacing for their worst single-day percentage drop since February. So far this year, KSS has shed more than 48%.

Options traders are blasting the equity today, with 31,000 puts and 27,000 calls traded so far, which is nine times the volume typically seen at this point. The most active contract is  the weekly 11/29 15-strike put.

That marks a sentiment shift. The retail stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.06 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 90th percentile of its annual range. 

Short sellers have been piling on KSS. The 35.54 million shares sold short now account for a whopping 32.4% of the equity's available float, or more than one week's worth of pent-up buying power.
Published on Nov 26, 2024 at 10:16 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

Shares of Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) and Best Buy Inc (NYSE:BBY) are in focus today, after both retail giants reported third quarter results.

After opening at $227.67, Dick's Sporting Goods stock was last seen 0.1% higher at $216.00, after the sporting goods retailer posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the quarter, as well as a strong outlook for the holiday shopping season. The firm raised its full-year guidance, and anticipates fiscal 2024 same-store sales growth of between 3.6% and 4.2% -- higher than its previous range. Year to date, DKS is still 50.4% higher.

Best Buy stock is 8.9% lower to trade at $84.79 at last glance, after the company reported third-quarter results that were below estimates, and slashed its full-year sales forecast. The consumer electronics retailer said that new iPhones and laptops with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities couldn't drive sales higher. Since the start of 2024, BBY is up 9%

Options traders are blasting both equities after the results. Already, DKS has seen 12 times the intraday average volume, while BBY has seen 8 times the volume typically seen at this point in trading.

Published on Nov 26, 2024 at 9:21 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 4:24 PM
  • Market Recap

Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 3:11 PM
Updated on Nov 25, 2024 at 3:13 PM
  • Trade Postmortem
  • Options Recommendations

Schaeffer's Weekend Trader subscribers scored a big win just in time for Thanksgiving. Bulls doubled their money with our Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS) February 17 call recommendation in just over one week, so now is a good time to see how the trade played out. 

At the time of our recommendation on Nov. 17, HIMS had just nabbed an all-time high after a push above $30, which was three times its 2019 initial public offering (IPO) price. A sharp pullback followed that peak, which may have been exaggerated by an unwinding of long positions associated with expiring November call open interest (OI), in addition to as delta-hedge selling related to heavy out-of-the-money OI in 11/22 through standard December expiration.

There was plenty of support lingering below to capture that downturn, which made it a good time to bet on a rebound for HIMS. The $19-$20 level was also home to the last put-heavy strikes, the 50-day moving average, and a trendline connecting higher lows since September.

What's more, shares were above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level connecting their September lows and recent highs, as well as $17.90, which was double their 2023 close. Short interest had nearly tripled since March, and shorts were likely to use that pullback to cover. 

As anticipated, shares bounced off the $18 level and 50-day trendline the day after our recommendation, and have been in rally mode since. HIMS was last seen up 19.7% to trade at $30.32 at last glance, pacing for its fifth win in the last six sessions, enabling our traders to collect a 100% gain.

HIMS 50 Day

Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Technical Analysis

It's both 'Black Friday' and earnings week for Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF). The apparel retailer will announce its latest quarterly report before the open tomorrow, Nov. 26, and the shares are on the rise ahead of the event. 

ANF was last seen up 3.7% at $157.62, extending last session's 7.4% pop as it heads for a third-straight gain. The stock is trading at its highest levels since mid October, and just broke above recent pressure at the 100-day moving average on Friday. Year to date, the equity is up 79.2%. 

ANF Nov 25

The stock has a history of outsized post-earnings moves, averaging a 15.5% swing over the past two years, regardless of direction. Only three of these past eight moves were negative, though that includes a 17% drop this past August. This time around, the options pits are anticipating a 17.9% next-day swing. 

Call traders have been targeting ANF ahead of the event. The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.54 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 92% of readings from the past year. 

Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 1:04 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

The end of the year, a typically bullish period for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), is quickly approaching. And with President-elect Donald Trump making his cabinet picks, this is shaping up to be an interesting start to the new year. With this in mind, we're taking a look at electric vehicles (EV), a sector that's being closely monitored given Trump's plans for harsh tariffs on China and his close ties with Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk.

Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) is making big moves today, last seen 13.9% higher to trade at $11.66. Coincidentally, the equity is receiving a lift following a settlement with Tesla. The latter said it reached a "conditional" settlement in regards to a 2020 lawsuit that accused Rivian of poaching employees and theft of EV trade secrets. Despite today's pop, RIVN remains nearly 50% lower year to date.

Shares of EV fast charging network company Evgo Inc (NASDAQ:EVGO) are also performing well today, trading 3.4% higher at $6.58 at last glance. Shares have tumbled in recent weeks, down 14.5% in November as traders grapple with the potential implications of Trump's proposed policies. However, EVGO remains 11.3% higher over the last 12 months, with an 87.7% year-to-date gain to boot.

U.S.-listed shares of China-based EV maker Nio Inc -- ADR (NYSE:NIO) are trading lower this afternoon, following a bear note at Goldman Sachs. The analyst downgraded NIO to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its price target to $3.90, citing a myriad of issues including a tough path to profitability. Last seen 2.8% lower at $4.71, Nio stock now sports a 48.2% year-to-date deficit. 

Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 10:49 AM
Updated on Nov 25, 2024 at 11:00 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Software stock Quantum Computing Inc (NASDAQ:QUBT) is soaring, up 20.8% at $7.37 at last glance, after a boost from Amazon.com (AMZN). Amazon Web Services (AWS) launched the Quantum Embark Program today, helping users solve problems using quantum mechanics. 

Today's pop has the stock jumping to its highest levels since Nov. 2021. On track for its fifth-straight gain, QUBT is further removing itself from penny stock territory after breaking past $5 last week. Since last Monday, the equity is up roughly 144%. 

The busy options pits are leaning bullish after the event. So far, 18,000 calls and 5,256 puts have been exchanged, which is seven times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The weekly 11/29 10-strike call is the most popular, followed by the 7.50-strike call in the same series, with new positions opening at the former. 

Short interest is up a whopping 47.3% over the past two weeks, and now represents 6% of the stock's available float. An unwinding of these bearish bets amid the stock's outperformance could add fuel to the fire. 

 

Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 10:31 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Bath & Body Works Inc (NYSE:BBWI) stock is up 17.7% to trade at $36.14 at last glance -- their highest level since July -- after the retailer announced better-than-expected earnings and revenue for the third quarter. The company also raised its full-year forecast amid strong demand for its candles and fragrances during the holiday season.

Shares are on track for their biggest single-day percentage gain on record, their third daily win in the past four sessions, and first close above the 40-day moving average since early June. Over the past year, the security added 22.5%.

The brokerage bunch is split toward BBWI, with nine firms calling it a tepid "hold" or worse, while nine say "buy" or better. This means Bath & Body Works stock could still benefit from a round of upgrades. 

Options traders are already chiming in on the results, with 9,553 calls and 2,275 puts traded so far, which is 11 times the volume typically seen at this point. The most active contracts are the weekly 12/6 35- and 36-strike calls, where new positions are currently being bought to open.

 
 
Published on Nov 25, 2024 at 9:22 AM
  • Analyst Update

Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) stock is 1.6% higher before the bell, on track to open at $126.99 after being named a "top pick" at Oppenheimer. In its bull note, the analyst praised the retailers improved risk-to-reward profile and called TGT's dividend yield "attractive."

Target stock boasts an intriguing entry point, considering its 12.2% year-to-date deficit. The equity's losses began to pile up last week, after the firm recorded its largest earnings miss in two years and slashed its full-year guidance. In fact, shares shed 17.8% last week for their fifth weekly loss in six, and now sit at their lowest level since November 2023.

Given its lackluster technical setup, it should come as no surprise that 15 of 33 covering brokerages rate the stock a "hold" or worse. However, positive price action could force these analysts to change their tune, which in turn could provide tailwinds for the struggling retail name.

For those looking to speculate, premium is affordable at the moment. This is per Target stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) reading of 24%, which sits higher than 14% of reading from the last 12 months. This implies that options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations. 

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