Tech stock IBM (NYSE:IBM), otherwise known as International Business Machines Corporation, is up 0.7% at $241.10 today. The stock is up 9.7% since the start of the year -- hitting a record high in mid-March -- but is having a tough time staging a meaningful breakout back over the $243 region. A short-term rally could be in the works though, given that the stock is flashing a historically bullish signal. 

The shares are within one standard deviation of their 126-day moving average (representing half a year of trading). Per Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, IBM has encountered this trendline for the first time in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. Within these parameters, three other signals occurred in the past three years. IBM was higher one month later 100% of the time after these events, averaging a 10.9% gain.    

Should IBM extend its recent bounce, analyst bull notes could provide tailwinds. Of the 20 analysts covering IBM, 12 carry a "hold" or worse rating, while the 12-month consensus price target of $249.97 is a slim 3.8% premium to current levels. 

Wendy's Co (NASDAQ:WEN) will announce first-quarter earnings before the open on Friday, May 2. Options traders are chiming in ahead of the event, with 10,000 puts and 5,491 calls exchanged so far today, which is 6 times the intraday average amount. The most popular contract is the August 15 put, followed by the 18 call in that same series.

Today's penchant for bearish bets points to a sentiment shift. Over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), WEN's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 7.99 ranks in the 98th percentile of annual readings. Should the fast food chain's report miss expectations, there could be a further unwinding of optimism that creates pressure. 

It's a mixed bag when it comes to Wendy stock's post-earnings history over the last eight quarter, with four closes lower and four higher. In the last two years, the equity averaged a next-day swing of 2.3%, regardless of direction, but this time the options pits are pricing in a much larger move of 7.1%.

WEN was last seen down 1% to trade at $12.47, dangerously close to its April 9, five-year low of $12.05. The descending  20-day moving average has been guiding shares lower since late March, while the $16 level capped their rally attempt in late February. Pacing for its third loss in the last four sessions, WEN carries a 23.5% year-to-date deficit.

It's also worth noting that Wendy's stock usually outperformed options traders' volatility expectations in the last year. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 94 out of 100.

Stocks are lower this afternoon, as Wall Street digests a fresh wave of disappointing economic data. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) are down triple digits, as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) also sits firmly in red territory.

The selloff follows this morning’s weaker-than-expected GDP reading and private sector payrolls, which reignited recession fears and cast doubt on April’s stock market rebound. Investors are also questioning the longer-term economic impact of President Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which many fear will further pressure the economy.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• 2 stocks suffering after post-earnings bear notes.
• Super Micro Computer's dismal quarterly outlook.
• Plus, options traders blast HUM; TT rallies amid revenue growth; and NCLH sinks on weak results.

Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM) is seeing elevated options activity this afternoon, with 7,228 calls and 4,176 puts traded so far -- double the average intraday volume. New positions are being opened at the most active contract, the weekly 5/2 325-strike call. The health insurance stock is down 0.6% at $257.83 at last check, despite the company reporting stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings of $11.58 per share, topping estimates of $10.07 per share. Over the last nine months, HUM shed 29.3%.

Trane Technologies (NYSE:TT) is one of the best-performing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) this afternoon, last seen 7.4% higher at $379.84. The company reported double-digit revenue growth for the first quarter and a profit beat, reaffirmed its full-year guidance, and noted it is tracking toward the higher end of its forecast ranges. The equity is now slightly above its year-to-date breakeven level and boasts a 19.6% gain over the last 12 months.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE:NCLH) is one of the worst-performing stocks on the NYSE today, last seen down 8.4% at $15.92. The cruise operator missed first-quarter estimates, reporting adjusted earnings of 7 cents per share on $2.13 billion in revenue, versus expectations of 9 cents on $2.15 billion. While the company kept its full-year earnings guidance of $2.05 per share, CEO Harry Sommer noted a cautious view of the “evolving macroeconomic environment.” NCLH is down 40% year to date and just gapped back below its 20-day moving average.

Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock is 16.4% lower to trade at $30.11 at last check, after the company lowered fiscal third-quarter profit and revenue guidance well below analysts' expectations. The software concern noted customers postponed orders for its servers and computing products, delaying up to $1.4 billion in sales.

In response, thee firms slashed their price objectives, including J.P. Morgan Securities to $36 from $39. More downward price revisions could be in store, too, as SMCI's 12-month consensus target price of $48.62 is currently a 62.3% premium to current levels.

Testing recent support at the $30 level, the security is well on its way to its worst day since November. The $40 region has acted as a ceiling since late February, following the security's rally to its highest level since August, while the 60-day moving average has been enacting pressure as well, contributing to SMCI's 65.2% year-over-year deficit.

Drilling down to today's options activity, 135,000 calls and 107,000 puts have crossed the tape so far, which is triple the intraday average volume. Most active is the weekly 5/2 30-strike put, where new positions are being opened.

Calls have been much more popular than usual in the options pits. This is per the security's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.61 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks in 96th percentile of its annual range.

Renewable energy stock First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) is down 9.7% at $123.90 at last glance, after the company posted a first-quarter earnings and revenue miss and lowered its annual sales and profit outlook. CEO Mark Widmar said tariffs create an unexpected and "significant economic headwind." 

Oppenheimer downgraded First Solar stock to "perform" from "outperform" after today's events, while Keybanc cut its rating to "underweight" from "sector weight." Plenty of other analysts slashed their price targets as well. More bear notes could be on the way, as 29 of the 34 analysts in coverage still carry a "buy" or better rating, while the 12-month consensus price target of $212.34 sits at a hefty 70% premium to current levels. 

Today's drop has FSLR moving back toward its April 9 two-year low of $116.56 and its worst daily drop since February. However, support at the $120 level looks to be holding steady. Since the start of the year, the equity is down 29.2%. 

So far today, 36,000 calls and 37,000 puts have crossed the tape, which is 7 times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The June 120 and 90 puts are the most popular, with new positions being sold to open at the May 140 call. 

Earnings are dominating the spotlight today, but two names are standing out from the pack. Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX) and Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP) are moving sharply lower after their respective quarterly reports failed to impress investors.

Starbucks Stock Slides on Earnings Miss

Starbucks stock is 10.1% lower before the bell, after the coffee chain missed analysts' expectations for its fiscal second-quarter report. Revenue came in at $8.7 billion, falling short of estimates , while U.S. same-store sales declined 2%. Despite the weak results, CEO Laxman Narasimhan struck an optimistic tone, noting the company is where it should "should be at this point in our turnaround.”

Following the results, Stifel cut its price target on Starbucks to $92 from $103, and at least 10 other firms followed suits with downward price revisions as well. The equity's average 12-month target price of $93.98 represents a 10.6% premium to last night’s close.

Shares are set to open around the $76 level, which previously acted as support during an early April pullback. The security is also on track to extend its year-to-date deficit, which currently stands at 7%.

Snap Stock Tanks After Pulling Guidance

Snap stock is off 15.2% in premarket trading, after the social media firm posted slightly better-than-expected first-quarter revenue but withheld second-quarter guidance, citing macroeconomic uncertainty. The company cited “headwinds” that emerged early in the current quarter, prompting a more cautious tone.

MoffettNathanson cut its price target to $1 from $8 in response, with 11 other analysts slashing their price objectives as well. The consensus 12-month target price of $10.05 still implies a 31.7% premium to Tuesday’s close.

SNAP is now pacing to snap a six-day winning streak and is down 15.6% in 2025. The stock’s early losses suggest a breakdown of recent momentum, as it pulls back from a failed attempt to reclaim its mid-March highs.

Even if you are not an avid trader, you have likely heard the stock market maxim “sell in May and go away.” The data in the table below shows where this saying comes from. Over the past 40 years, May through October has been the worst six-month timeframe for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). The index has averaged a return of 2.45% from May through October, compared to 7.29% for the other six months out of the year.

Despite 73% of the returns being positive, the underperformance is mainly due to limited upside and more downside when compared to the other six months of the year. With May about to kick off, now is a good time to look at how the next six months usually perform when we’ve just had six months of poor returns. I’ll also list some stocks that usually buck this trend, as well as others that are best to avoid.

Momentum, Not Reversion 

I thought that if the market was down in the preceding six months heading into May, the SPX might tend to bounce back in the next six months. Instead, the prior six months seems to create momentum for the next six months. Since the end of October, the SPX shed to 3%. When the index has been down over the prior six months, the next May through October has averaged a negative return of 2.6%, with just half of the returns positive.

The table below shows each time the SPX was down in the six months leading into May. The last time was in 2022, and the SPX fell 6.3% over the next six months. On a hopeful note, each of the three times before that, the index was positive, with two of those times gaining over 10%.

Notable Stocks for May Through October 

As promised, here’s a list of stocks that tend to perform well over the next six months, despite the seasonality headwinds. Cintas (CTAS) is the only stock to beat the SPX in each of the last 10 years and be positive each time as well. Big Tech megacaps Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT) are also on this list.

Finally, this next list of stocks features those that have been the least likely to beat the SPX, even during the worst six months of the year for the index.

Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU), one of our top stock picks of 2025, is up 2.4% to trade at $69.75 today. The streaming company's first-quarter earnings report is due out after the close on May 1, and options bears have been growing bolder ahead of the event. 

Roku has a history of volatile post-earnings moves. The stock gapped higher by 14.1% after an upbeat report in February, and but shed 17.3% after a dismal report in late October. Overall, the stock averaged a post-earnings move, regardless of direction, of 16.5% after the last eight reports. This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual post-earnings swing of 20.4%.

ROKU is in the midst of an eight-day win streak, trimming its year-to-date deficit down to 6.3% after trading as low as $52.53 earlier this month. The rally has the shares testing their 50-day moving average, a trendline that hasn't been cleared on a closing basis since March.

Puts have been much more popular than usual in the options pits. ROKU's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.53 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 85% of readings from the past year. So while calls still outflank puts on an absolute basis, the high percentile suggests the ratio is on an uptick that nears an annual high rate.