Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Nov 14, 2023 at 10:16 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) is the latest Dow member to hit the earnings confessional. The home improvement retailer reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue. The same-store sales drop was also smaller than anticipated, as a shift to small-scale home projects helped offset slowing demand for pricier items. While the company narrowed its full-year guidance, HD is still up 6.5% at $306.62 at last check.

The shares are today eyeing their first close above their 40-day moving average since mid-September, and are on track to conquer the $300 level, which capped their October rally. The security is working to distance itself from an Oct. 27, one-year low of $274.43, but is still down 4% in 2023.

An unwinding of short-term options traders' pessimism could generate additional tailwinds. This is per HD's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.50 that sits in the 87th percentile of readings from the past 12 months, suggesting a bearish bias amongst these traders.

Drilling down to today's options activity, 13,000 calls and 12,000 puts have already crossed the tape, or 11 times the intraday average volume. Most popular is the November 310 call, followed by the 305 call in the same series.


Published on Nov 14, 2023 at 9:21 AM
  • Opening View

Futures on all three major indexes are surging before the open, with Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) futures sporting hefty triple-digit leads, as investors eye this morning's inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) in October was unchanged, compared to expectations of a 0.1% rise, though the core CPI rose 0.2% for the month. Following the report, bond yields took a sharp turn lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4.5%. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • The best way to play the SPX right now, per Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research, Todd Salamone. 
  • November's a historically bullish month for this homebuilding stock
  • Plus, an earnings disappointment and 2 stocks buzzing on bull notes.

Futures Nov14

5 Things You Need to Know Today

  1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw over 1 million call contracts and 968,091 million puts traded Monday. The single-session equity put/call ratio fell to 0.88 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.69.
  2. Electric vehicle (EV) name Fisker Inc (NYSE:FSR) is down 19.7% premarket, after the company posted disappointing third-quarter results and cut its 2023 production forecast. No fewer than three analysts slashed their price targets after the news, with Evercore ISI halving its price objective to $6 from $12. Should these losses hold, FSR will hit fresh record lows today. 
  3. Kraft Heinz Co (NYSE:KHC) is up 1.9% in electronic trading, after an upgrade from Bernstein to "outperform" from "market perform." The firm believes the food and beverage company is better positioned than its peers to face disruption from weight-loss drugs. Since the start of the year, the equity is down 18.3%. 
  4. Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is up 2.6% before the bell, after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to "buy" from "hold," on the heels of Citigroup's price-target hike to $155. Deutsche Bank cited the security's favorable risk/reward profile, and also raised its price target to $175 from $155. Should these gains hold, TTWO will extend its July 52-week highs. 
  5. See what economic data is due out this week.  


Economic Data in Focus as European Stocks Move Mixed

Stocks in Asia finished mostly higher on Tuesday. Investors are still eyeing talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping, set to take place in San Francisco later today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the region’s only loser, falling 0.2%, while China’s Shanghai Composite and Japan’s Nikkei both added 0.3%. Meanwhile, the South Korean Kospi turned in a 1.2% gain.

European markets are mixed this afternoon, as traders parse through euro zone gross domestic product (GDP) data, which contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. In addition, investors are digesting job vacancies in the U.K., which fell 58,000 in the third quarter, as well as Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment survey that suggested investor morale is improving. At last glance, London’s FTSE is off 0.4%, the German DAX is 0.4% higher, and France’s CAC 40 is just above breakeven.

Published on Nov 14, 2023 at 9:14 AM
  • Analyst Update

Video game concern Take-Two Interactive Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is up 2.6% before the bell, after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to "buy" from "hold" and raised its price target by $20 to $175. The analyst in coverage praised the company's risk-reward profile, citing a strong development pipeline, with 14 immersive titles in the works for 2025 and 2026.

In addition, Citigroup also raised its price objective on TTWO, adjusting up to $155 from $140. Coming into today, 18 of of 22 covering analysts rated the equity a "buy" or better, with the additional four recommending a tepid "hold."

The options pits have been more bullish than usual, per Take-Two Interactive stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.54 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio sits in the 95th percentile of annual readings, indicating long calls are being picked up at a quicker-than-usual clip. 

On the charts, TTWO is set to open above its July 19 year-to-date high of $153.84. The equity experienced an early November, post-earnings bull gap that catapulted it above the $142 level, though the $152 mark cut yesterday's gains short. Over the last 12 months, Take-Two Interactive stock is up 46.8%.

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 4:26 PM
Updated on Nov 13, 2023 at 4:28 PM
  • Market Recap

Stocks struggled on Monday, after Moody’s Investors Service slashed its U.S. credit rating outlook to "negative" from "stable." While the Dow managed a modest gain, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both settled below fair value, as utility stocks continued to falter. With the bulk of earnings season now in the rearview mirror, traders are turning their attention to the big batch of inflation data that is due out later this week.

  • Don't sweat AppLovin stock's latest pullback.
  • This solar stock is popular with options traders.
  • Plus, homebuilding stock to buy; TSN brushes off dismal outlook; and Monday.com's earnings beat.

Closing Index Summary November 132023

NYSE and Nasdaq Stat November 132023

5 Things to Know Today

  1. Amazon.com (AMZN) cut more than 180 jobs in its gaming division, and will close its Game Growth and Crown Channel initiatives to focus on launches. (CNBC)
  2. The terms of service contract for Tesla's (TSLA) cybertruck says owners agree to not sell or attempt to sell the truck within the first year of its delivery. (MarketWatch)
  3. Outperforming homebuilding stock to buy this month.
  4. Dismal 2024 forecast couldn't shake Tyson Foods stock.
  5. Monday.com stock surged after reporting a quarterly win.

Earnings November 132023

Unusual Options Activity November 132023

Analyst, OPEC Notes Boost Oil Prices 

Oil prices marked a third-straight win today, after Goldman Sachs expressed optimism over demand, and highlighted lower supplies and inventories. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also dismissed demand concerns. December-dated West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.09, or 1.4%, to close at $78.26 a barrel.

Gold prices were higher as well, as the U.S. dollar weakened before the incoming slew of inflation data. December-dated gold rose $12.50, or 0.7%, to close at $1,950.20 an ounce for the day, and 3.1% on the week.

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 2:22 PM
  • Most Active Weekly Options

On the charts, Sunrun Inc (NASDAQ:RUN) stock fell shortly after its Nov. 2 post-earnings surge of 10.1%, after the stock's 40-day moving average rejected it below the $12 mark. Currently down 1.4% to trade at $9.30 at last glance, RUN is on track for its fourth-straight daily loss, and nearing its late-October three-year lows. Since the start of the year, the equity is underperforming with a 61.4% deficit. 

RUN Nov13

The solar name has remained popular amongst options traders, who are leaning slightly bullish despite the stock's slump. RUN even made it to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of S&P 400 (SP400) stocks that attracted the highest weekly options volume in the last 10 days. During this time, Sunrun stock saw 117,345 calls and 90,111 puts exchanged, with the weekly 11/3 11-strike call seeing the most activity. 

MAO Nov13

Sunrun stock has landed on the short sale restricted (SSR) list today. It's also worth noting that short interest represents a whopping 28.2% of the stock's available float. It would take shorts over five days to cover their bets, at RUN's average pace of trading. 

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 2:21 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis
AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) stock is down 4.5% at $41.81 at last glance, though a catalyst for this pullback is not immediately clear. The security still boasts a whopping 300.9% lead for 2023, however, and is still within striking distance of its Nov. 9, one-year high of $45.10, with long-term support stemming from its 100-day moving average. Now appears to be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip, too, as the shares are flashing a historically bullish signal. 


APP 100 Day


Specifically, the stock's recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV). This has been a bullish combination in the past, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. White's data points to one other signal over the last five years when the equity was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower.
This is currently the case with the stock's SVI of 46%, which sits in the 17th percentile of its annual range. Shares were higher one month after that signal, averaging a 7.2% pop. From its current trading level, a move of similar magnitude would place APP back above $44.

A continued unwinding of pessimism could also boost the security. Though short interest fell 9.2% in the last reporting period, the 15.87 million shares sold short still account for 8.6% of APP's available float.

It's also worth noting the the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 72 out of 100, suggesting it has exceeded option traders' volatility expectations in the last year. 

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 11:10 AM
Updated on Nov 13, 2023 at 2:08 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Monday.com Ltd (NASDAQ:MNDY) is staging a hefty post-earnings bounce this Monday, after the software name's strong third-quarter results and upbeat forecast for the current quarter and full year. At last glance, MNDY was up 12.5% at $157.63, earlier as high as $161.42. 

This bull gap has the stock reclaiming familiar support at the $150 level, and breaking above its 80-day moving average. Since the start of the year, the equity is up 28.7%. 

Analysts have yet to chime in on the results, though the majority is already bullish. Of the 15 firms in coverage, 13 carry a "buy" or better rating, with two a tepid "hold," while the 12-month consensus price target of $201.19 sits at a 27.6% premium to current levels. 

Monday.com's earnings certainly captured the attention of options traders. So far today, 7,001 calls and 3,566 puts have crossed the tape, which is already 15 times the average daily options volume. The November 170 call is the most popular contract, with positions being bought to open there.


Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 12:53 PM
Updated on Nov 13, 2023 at 1:18 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

There's been plenty of speculation regarding homebuilding stocks as construction spending and mortgage rates jump. The grim outlook for existing homes has pushed buyers towards new constructions, and Pultegroup Inc (NYSE:PHM) is reaping the rewards, up 84.8% over the last 12 months. Though shares were last seen 0.4% lower at $82.04, there's reason to believe that PHM still has a solid path higher.

This is due to the fact that Pultegroup stock is halfway through a historically bullish month. per data from Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the equity is one of the best-performing stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) when looking at the last 10 years. Securing second place on White's list, PHM averaged a November return of 7.2% in the last decade, finishing the month with a positive 100% of the time. The equity is already outperforming its historical gains, up 11.4% in November, with more than two weeks left in the month.

SPX Best of November 132023

On the charts, the stock just bounced from a late-October post-earnings dip. Now trading in a range between the $80 and $84 area, Pultegroup stock has neared its mid-August record highs just above the $86 level.

An unwinding of short-term options traders' pessimism could provide some tailwinds. This is per PHM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.18 that ranks in the 74th percentile of readings from the past 12 months, suggesting a bearish bias amongst these traders.

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 11:55 AM
  • Midday Market Check



Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 11:00 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Tyson Foods Inc (NYSE:TSN) reported a fiscal fourth-quarter revenue miss this morning, and cut its 2024 forecast amid falling demand for beef, as well as lower chicken and pork prices, as consumers cut back on meat purchases due to high inflation. Earnings for the quarter still beat expectations, however, with shares last seen up 2% to trade at $47.88.

Bouncing off support at the $46 level, the equity is today looking to close above its 40-day moving average for the first time since mid-September. Though the $49 region is acting as pressure, the shares are still on pace for a third-straight daily win. So far this year, TSN is down 22.2%.

Options volume is already running at 12 times the intraday average, with 5,707 calls and 3,964 puts traded so far today. Most popular is the November 55 call, followed by the 50 call in that same series. 

At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), TSN sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.52 that sits higher than 78% of readings from the past year. This suggests that puts have been more popular than usual.

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 9:43 AM
Updated on Nov 13, 2023 at 9:43 AM
  • Analyst Update

Tripadvisor Inc (NASDAQ:TRIP) stock is 2.1% higher out of the gate, following a bull note from Bernstein. The Wall Street brokerage upgraded TRIP to "outperform" from "market perform" and hiked its price target to $21.40, calling the company the "fastest growing major travel brand" and praising its new investment plans.

The majority of covering brokerages were bearish before today, with 16 of 20 rating Tripadvisor stock a "buy" or better. This leaves plenty of room for additional pessimism to unwind. Elsewhere, the 11.15 million shares sold short account for 10.6% of the security's total available float.

Should the positive premarket action continue into the session, it will help TRIP move back above the $17.50 level after three-straight closes below the mark. The $18 mark is still acting as a layer of resistance on the charts, while TripAdvisor stock looks to overcome a modest 3.4% year-to-date deficit.

Published on Nov 13, 2023 at 9:00 AM
Updated on Nov 13, 2023 at 9:20 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook

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