Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 25, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Updated on Apr 25, 2025 at 9:19 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 4:26 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 2:11 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Airline stocks are in focus today, after sector stalwarts American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) stepped into the earnings confessional. Both airliners reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss and withdrew their full-year guidance, mirroring Delta Air Lines (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL) amid an increasingly murky U.S. economic outlook.

AAL was last seen up 2.5% to trade at $9.56, consolidating around its April 4, nearly five-year low of $8.50. The shares are 45% lower in 2025 and down 31% year over year, with the descending 20-day moving average keeping a lid on rallies since a late January post-earnings bear gap. LUV, meanwhile, is 2.7% higher today to trade at $26.21, but is down 22% in 2025 and almost 11% year-over-year.

AAL, LUV Chart

The chart above shows similar technical profiles, but the stocks differ in two areas. First, AAL is more of a downgrade risk going forward. Of the 20 brokerages covering AAL, 11 maintain a "buy" or better rating, with only one "sell" on the books. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $56.30 is a 54% premium from its current perch. Analysts are more in tune with struggling Southwest, with the majority carrying a "hold" rating. 

Options traders' strategy should also differ, depending on the stock. AAL tended to outperformed options traders' volatility expectations in the last year, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 96 out of 100. LUV, meanwhile, sports a SVS of 1 out of 100, making a premium-selling strategy the prudent move. 

Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 1:38 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

 

 

 

Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are rallying this afternoon, with both Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) up triple digits -- the latter lifted by strong gains in megacap tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), and Microsoft (MSFT). All three major indexes are on track for third-straight gains.

Despite the bounce, sentiment remains fragile. China said no trade talks are currently underway and called for the cancellation of “unilateral” U.S. tariffs -- a sharp contrast to recent remarks from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggesting a more constructive tone. Meanwhile, March existing home sales dropped to their lowest level since 2009, even as home prices hit a new record.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

Midday Market Stats April 242025

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) stock is seeing unusual options activity, with 58,000 calls and 70,000 puts traded so far today -- 5 times the average intraday amount. Investors are opening new positions at the top three most popular contracts, led by the weekly 5/30 43-strike put. CMG was last seen 0.9% higher to trade at $49.16, but still sports an 18% year-to-date deficit and slid earlier after the company's first-quarter revenue miss, first same-store sales drop since 2020, and slashed sales forecast. 

ServiceNow Inc (NYSE:NOW) is one of the best-performing SPX components today, up 14.6% at $931.13 at last check on strong first-quarter results. The software name shared adjusted earnings of $4.04 per share on $3.09 billion in revenue, beating estimates. This bull gap placed NOW at its highest level since February, and helped it reclaim its 50-day moving average. The security is up 25.2% in the last 12 months but remains below its Jan. 28, all-time high of $1,198.09.

NOW Chart April 242025

TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) is one of the worst performing stocks this afternoon, last seen down 16.7% at $9.15, and on pace to snap its four-day win streak with its worst day since 2022. The Chinese education name missed top- and bottom-line expectations for its fiscal fourth quarter. Despite 42.1% year-over-year revenue growth, the earnings miss and ongoing regulatory overhang spooked investors. TAL is down 8.6% in 2025.

Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 12:12 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Oil stock CNX Resources Corp (NYSE:CNX) is down 4.1% at $29.34 at last glance, after the company reported a first-quarter earnings beat but lower-than-expected revenue. There is still support below at the $280 level, however, as well as a historically bullish trendline.

The shares are within one standard deviation of their 260-day moving average, a trendline that, per Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, CNX has encountered for the first time in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. Within these parameters, three other signals occurred in the past three years. CNX was higher one month later 100% of the time after these events, averaging a 10.6% gain.   

CNX April 24

Plus, short interest represents 19.1% of the stock's available float, or over nine days' worth of pent-up buying power. Any upgrades could provide tailwinds as well, as 13 of the 14 analysts in coverage carry a "hold" or worse rating. 

Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 10:45 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK) has reversed its premarket lead, down 2% at $77.20 at last glance. The company posted better-than-expected first-quarter results but cut its profit outlook, expecting a $200 million dent from tariffs. Creeping back down toward its April 16 three-year low of $75.95, MRK is down 22.7% since the start of the year. 

So far today, MRK has seen 21,000 calls and 29,000 puts exchanged -- triple the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The May 75 put is the most popular, where new positions are being opened. 

Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG) is brushing off a first-quarter earnings beat, down 5% at $157.37 at last glance. Revenue fell short of expectations, and the company slashed its full-year forecast amid economic uncertainty. CEO Jon Moeller told CNBC that there will likely be price increases amid tariffs, but that they're looking at sourcing options. 

Today's gap has PG testing a familiar floor around $158, an area that's been visited in July, January, and now April of the last year. The shares are now 5% off in 2025, and have ceded their year-over-year breakeven level today.

PG has seen 7,586 calls and 6,924 puts across the tape so far, which is double the intraday average put volume. The weekly 4/25 157.50-strike put is the most active contract, followed by the May 167.50 call. 

Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 9:13 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Apr 24, 2025 at 9:02 AM
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Published on Apr 23, 2025 at 4:25 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Apr 23, 2025 at 2:27 PM
  • Earnings Preview

Celestica Inc (NYSE:CLS) stock is up 6.9% to trade at $88.48 today, enjoying broad market tailwinds and both RBC Capital and CLS Globe maintaining their "outperform" ratings. The Canada-based electrical hardware firm steps into the earnings confessional Friday morning, and could be poised for an even bigger move on the charts. 

CLS shook off two price-target cuts this week to break out of a channel of lower lows since a Feb. 5 record high of $144.27. The shares are 4.3% lower in 2025, but still boast a 101% gain in the last 12 months. The equity also has support at its 320-day moving average, a trendline that caught the pullback earlier this month.

CLS Stock Chart

Celestica has a history of volatile post-earnings moves. The stock gapped higher by 13.6% after an upbeat report in January, and by 18.2% after October's report. Overall, the stock averages a post-earnings move, regardless of direction, of 8% the day after the last eight reports. This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual post-earnings move of 16.6%, regardless of direction.

Options traders have been skewed more toward puts lately. CLS' Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.74 that sits in the 98th percentile of annual readings. In other words, short-term traders have been more bearish than usual, and a further unwinding of this pessimism could boost the shares.

Celestica has also outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, making this an excellent opportunity to weigh in with options. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 81 out of 100.

Published on Apr 23, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Updated on Apr 23, 2025 at 2:16 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

Shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) were last seen up 7.7% at $256.34 today, despite the company's major profit loss in the first quarter. The electric vehicle (EV) giant reported earnings of 27 cents per share on revenue of $19.34 billion, representing a decline of 71% and 9%, respectively. However, commentary from CEO Elon Musk is boosting sentiment, after he said he would spend less time in Washington D.C. working for President Trump and instead focus on Tesla.

On the charts, the declining 40-day moving average is still keeping a cap on TSLA's gains. Year-to-date, the equity is down 36.5%. 

TSLA April23

Other EV stocks are getting a halo lift today. China-based Li Auto Inc (NASDAQ:LI) was up 2.3% at $24.33 at last glance, heading for its fourth-straight gain. The stock has been climbing since its early-April six-month lows, and is today breaking into positive territory for 2025. 

Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) is up 5.9% to trade at $12.03. On the charts, a ceiling still remains at the $12 level, as it has all month. Year to date, the equity is down 9.5%.

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