“The 5,995 pre-Inauguration close and 6,000-millennium mark are in play amid a potentially bearish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence, as the SPX moved above its May highs last week but its RSI reading failed to register a higher reading than May. The combination of not being ‘out of the woods’ with respect to resistance in the 5,995-6,000 zone could signal a mild pullback, with the ascending 20-day moving average, currently at 5,900, a first level of potential support.”

- Monday Morning Outlook, June 9, 2025

Last week, I postulated that the 5,995-6,000 zone might be a key area for the S&P 500 Index (SPX – 5,976.97) to overcome, with 5,995 representing the pre-Inauguration close and 6,000 a big round number.

In fact, after 6,000 was first touched in November, the index essentially chopped around this level for about three months, testing it several times before the start of a vicious decline into early April.

In the first four trading days last week, the S&P 500 appeared as if it had cleared potential resistance in that 5,995-6,000 zone, with four consecutive closes above this level, reaching a high of 6,059 on Wednesday.

But geopolitical worries sparked by an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and leadership caused the SPX to gap lower on Friday morning. Bulls tried to defend the 5,995-6,000 area midday, but to no avail, with the SPX experiencing a slight loss on the week closing at 5,976.97.

Despite the SPX retreating back below the 5,995-6,000 zone, there was little in the way of technical damage, as the index is still above its rising 20-day and 30-day moving averages, the latter of which comes into the week – coincidentally - at its 2024 close of 5,883, which could be first level of support if Friday’s selling continues. 

“… short-term option players showed a bias toward puts on options expiring this past Friday…  The bullish price action amid the put buildup is a scenario contrarians welcome, as it represents skepticism that could be money waiting to be deployed.”

- Monday Morning Outlook, June 9, 2025

Like last week, we tracked short-term options activity on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY – 597.00) to gauge short-term sentiment on the broader market. Relative to the prior week, there was more call activity. In hindsight, this may have left the SPX vulnerable to a flat to negative week, especially on the heels of the geopolitical news that surfaced before Friday’s open -- and the index trading in an area where sellers have emerged before.

But the option activity did not represent an extreme in optimism or pessimism, as there was a decent amount of put activity that accompanied the increased call activity. 

Looking ahead, this week brings the expiration of June standard expiration week options. Given the market had rallied strongly prior to the Israel-Iran news, there is little in the way of big put open interest (OI) strikes that could act as magnets in the immediate vicinity of the SPY’s close on Friday. In other words, there is little delta-hedge selling risk brought on by the conflict overseas.

The SPY 550 strike is put heavy (not shown on the chart below), equivalent to SPX 5,550, and the level at which delta-hedge selling risk begins if the SPY trades down to this level before Friday’s expiration.

In the immediate days ahead, the call-heavy 600 strike stands out on the SPY. Evidence suggests that most of these calls were bought (to open). As such, the implication is unwinding of long positions associated with those calls represents a risk to bulls if the SPY remains below this strike into Friday’s expiration.

However, if the SPY works its way back above the 600-strike, the outlook changes, as delta-hedge buying is in play as a possibility, as dealers hedge short call positions by buying S&P futures.

As a footnote to the above discussion and looking ahead to month-end quarterly expiration in two weeks, there is a well-publicized SPX collar trade that J.P. Morgan puts each quarterly expiration. Currently, the firm is short the 5,905-strike call and long the 5,310/4,480 strike put debit spread.

In other words, the firm has sold away the current SPX upside beyond 5,905 to help pay for a hedge on a move below 5,310. A statistic I ran across last week said that in the past 28 quarters this collar trade has been on, the SPX closed above the short call (5,905 currently) only 12 times, even with the SPX moving above the short call strike at some point in 20 of the 28 instances. 

Finally, after short interest was released by the exchanges last week, we compiled total short interest on SPX components and found a near 1% decrease in the two-week period ending in May. On the heels of a 32% increase in total short positions on SPX components in 2025, the covering activity was noticeable. As such, one possibility is that shorts use Friday’s pullback as an opportunity to cover. Short covering was a major driver of stock market rallies from 2017 to 2019 and again after the Covid-driven lows in 2020-2021.

Todd Salamone is Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research

Continue Reading:

• The Week Ahead: Holiday-Shortened Week Highlighted by Fed Meeting
• Indicator of the Week: S&P 500 Flashing Short-Term V-Bottom Signal

On June 19th, 1865, Union soldiers arrived in Galveston, Texas with news that the Civil War had ended and that all slaves were now free. This day is celebrated each year as Juneteenth, and is considered to be the oldest known celebration of the end of slavery in the United States. Juneteenth was recognized as a federal holiday on June 17, 2021, when U.S. President Joe Biden signed the Juneteenth National Independence Day Act into law.

But what does this have to do with the stock market? With Juneteenth officially a federal holiday now, the stock market is closed for the day to commemorate this important day in American history.

What is the History Behind the Juneteenth Holiday?

Juneteenth, also known as Freedom Day or Emancipation Day, commemorates the day that news of the Emancipation Proclamation reached Texas in 1865. The Proclamation, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 1863, declared that all slaves in the United States were to be freed. However, in some U.S. areas without a heavy Union presence, the declaration was unable to be upheld. On June 19, 1865, Union Major Gen. Gordon Granger brought the news to Galveston, Texas, the last state to hold on to institutional slavery. 

Today, Juneteenth is celebrated on June 19 across the country. It is a time to reflect on the past and to celebrate the progress that has been made toward equality for all Americans.

Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on the Juneteenth Holiday?

All U.S. stock markets are closed in observance of the Juneteenth. This includes The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 (SPX), and more.

This year, Juneteenth falls on a Thursday All U.S. stock markets will be closed for the full day. The stock market will reopen as normal at 9:30 a.m. ET on Friday, June 20, for a holiday-shortened week. Juneteenth has been gaining popularity in recent years, and advocacy groups such as the Juneteenth Foundation are working to raise awareness of this important day in American history.

The day off from trading on Juneteenth gives traders, investors, and others tied to stock market hours to celebrate and commemorate the emancipation of enslaved African Americans as part of the holiday.

What about Bonds? Are Bond Markets Open or Closed on the Juneteenth Holiday?

Both the bond market and stock market are closed in observation of the Juneteenth holiday.

How Might You Observe Juneteenth?

Juneteenth, also known as Freedom Day or Emancipation Day, marks the day when enslaved African Americans in Texas captured their freedom. While this historic event happened more than 150 years ago, it remains an important day of remembrance and celebration.

There are several ways you can properly honor Juneteenth and support the community with the following organizations and virtual opportunities: 

• The National Museum of African American History & Culture is hosting an online celebration called, Juneteenth: A Celebration of Resilience. According to their website, the virtual viewing spans two days, from June 19 to June 20. Museum-goers will be able to enjoy a variety of performances, workshops, and panel discussions that focus on the history and significance of Juneteenth. In addition, the museum has put together an interactive timeline that walks online users through the history of Juneteenth and its significance today. The timeline features a variety of primary sources, such as documents, photographs, and audio recordings, that help to bring the story of Juneteenth to life. Whether you're a history buff or simply looking to learn more about this important holiday, the National Museum of African American History & Culture's Juneteenth celebration is sure to offer something for everyone.

• Step Afrika!, the first professional company in the world dedicated to the tradition of stepping, is calling viewers to its virtual theater for a Juneteenth performance which will broadcast at 8 p.m. ET on the June 19 holiday. The event will premiere three special works entitled, Trane, Little Rock Nine, and The Movement. Stepping is a dance style that was created by African American college students in the early 20th century and uses the body as an instrument of percussive sound.

• Outdoor Afro encourages connections of Black and African American individuals to nature. It is a great way to connect with nature, and the company's mission is an important one. "We encourage everyone to take some time to consider what freedom means to them, and to reflect on the legacy of those who were denied their freedom in America."

• The Juneteenth Foundation is a non-profit organization that works to promote the holiday and its history. Every year, the Juneteenth Foundation hosts a festival weekend to celebrate Juneteenth. This year's festival will be both in person and virtual and will include panel discussions, a career fair, and a Juneteenth Freedom Festival. The Juneteenth Foundation is committed to promoting Black advancement and ensuring that everyone has access to equitable opportunities. The Juneteenth festival is a great way to learn more about the holiday and its importance.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this OKE commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

Oil & gas services stock ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is trying to carve out of a low at its 2020 highs, 2024 summer lows, and spring 2025 lows. The shares are holding the open interest (OI) balance at the 80-strike, and back in April found a low at the peak put 75 strike.

 

A front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) above 1.00 could be signaling an immediate pending move. And with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) ranking in the 19th percentile of its annual range and a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rank of 70 out of 100, options are the preferred route to take a flier.

Our recommended September call option has a leverage ratio of 7.5 and will double on a 13.6% gain in the underlying security.

This commentary first appeared on Forbes Great Speculations, where Schaeffer's Investment Research is a regular contributor.

Chipmaker Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) has had a busy month. The semiconductor company cleared the $1 trillion market cap level on the way to a record high of $265.43 on June 4. One day later though, AVGO gapped lower by 5%, after the company’s fiscal-year revenue forecast fell short of estimates. The shares have battled back since then, poised to add 1.2% this week and remain a chip-shot from that peak. The good news is that Broadcom stock is flashing a historically bullish combination.

The stock’s recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination for the equity in the past. According to data from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been eight different times in the past five years when AVGO was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower -- as is the case with the security’s current SVI of 32%, which sits in the bottom percentile of its 12-month range.

Data shows Broadcom stock was higher a month later 75% of the time, averaging a 3% return for that time period. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put AVGO just $264, within striking distance of that record high.

Keep an eye on the $250 level, which could step up as support should it get cleared today. This area was home to peaks in December and January. In the shorter term, a cushion could come from AVGO’s ascending 20-day moving average, a trendline that caught the post-earnings bear gap last week and hasn’t been breached on a closing basis since April, per the chart below.

Puts have been much more popular than usual in the options pits. Broadcom’s 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.59 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 91% of readings from the past year. So while calls still outflank puts on an absolute basis, the high percentile suggests the ratio is on an uptick that nears an annual high rate.

Options are an intriguing route. The equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) ranks high at 84 out of 100, meaning AVGO has tended to exceed these expectations during the past year -- a boon for options buyers.

Oil and energy stocks Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), and EOG Resources Inc (NYSE:EOG) are higher today, as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lift crude prices. At last check, U.S. crude was up 8.5% at $73.81 per barrel. The move comes after Israel launched airstrikes against Iran -- reportedly without U.S. support -- raising concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf. 

Chevron stock was last seen 1.7% higher to trade at $146.91, eyeing a move above its breakeven year-to-date level. ConocoPhillips and EOG Resources stocks are both up 4.5%, trading at $98.94 and $126.05, respectively -- enough to push each name out of the red for 2025.

The options pits are heating up alongside the rally. CVX has seen 9,640 calls change hands so far -- triple its typical intraday pace -- with the weekly 6/13 147-strike call attracting the most attention. COP's call volume is running at twice the average, with 2,606 calls traded and the weekly 6/20 100-strike call emerging as the most popular. EOG is also seeing call volume at twice the norm, with 475 contracts exchanged so far. Traders are targeting the weekly 7/11 130-strike call, where new positions are being opened.

With Middle East tensions at a fever pitch, investors everywhere are flocking to safe-haven assets. At last check, U.S. gold futures for August delivery are up 1.8% at $3,464.70, while spot gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was last seen 1.4% higher to trade at $316.67. Keep an eye on these three gold mining stocks as well, especially if geopolitics remain a lightning rod going forward.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM), the largest gold miner by market cap, is up 2.1% to trade at $57.05. The shares are making a run at their Oct. 22 two-year high of $58.72, and are now 53% higher in 2025. Newmont stock has staged quite a V-shaped rally since a Dec. 30 12-month low of $36.86, with support in place at its 50-day moving average.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (NYSE:AEM) is another heavy hitter in Canada, the stock last seen 1% higher to trade at $123.40. AEM is a chip shot from its April 21 record high of $126.73, is 57% higher year-to-date, and hasn't closed below its 80-day moving average on a closing basis since early January.

The shares of SSR Mining Inc (NASDAQ:SSRM) are 1% higher to trade at $12.56, consolidating below their June 6 18-month high of $13.33. SSRM boasts an industry-leading 80% gain in 2025, and is 165% higher year-over-year. 

Beyond their similar technical profiles, all three stocks all boast affordably-priced options, with Schaeffer's Volatility Indexes (SVI) all in the respective 18th or lower percentile of their annual range.

With the way negative stock market sentiment has piled up recently, short squeezes have generated some massive returns. Our Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White compiles a bi-weekly list of stocks most ripe for a short squeeze. The table features the equity's amount of total available float tied up in short interest, how much short interest has increased in the last month, and how underwater these bearish bettors are.

This screen finds stocks where the shorts might be at a big loss and therefore likely to begin covering. Obviously, there are quite a few assumptions so these would be very rough estimates. To estimate the return for the shorts, Rocky went back over the past year of short interest reports to find when the shorts were added. Then he used the average price over the prior two weeks and estimated the shorts were added at that average price. Below are stocks where significant shorts have been added and they could be at a big loss. 

You'll notice some old friends there, like telehealth firebrand Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS), earth exploration stock AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS), and nuclear module reactor NuScale Power Corp (NYSE:SMR). 

Tech and nuclear energy is making bears pay, while fast-casual restaurant stocks Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) and CAVA Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) are names to watch as well.