Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 2:25 PM
  • Best and Worst Stocks

Electricity stock Pinnacle West Capital Corp (NYSE:PNW) stock has had a volatile start to the year. The shares traded as high as $80 on Dec. 14, but back in October sat as low as $59.03. PNW is currently consolidating around the $74 level, but if history is any indicator, the stock could move higher next week. 

Pinnacle West stock is among the best S&P 500 (SPX) stocks to own during President's Day Week. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, PNW averaged a return of 2.2% that week in the last 10 years, finishing positive 100% of the time. This puts PNW at the top of the list, followed by two more electricity names. 

PNW Feb15

Should PNW receive any bull notes, that could provide tailwinds as well. Of the nine analysts in coverage, all nine carry a "hold" or worse rating, while the 12-month consensus price target of $74.55 is roughly in line with current levels. 

Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 11:59 AM
  • Midday Market Check
Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 11:03 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

In a staggering rebound from this morning's premarket losses, the shares of Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) are up 22.2% at $20.59 at last glance. The stock is on track for its biggest single-session gain since Nov. 10, after the cloud-based artificial intelligence lending company reported narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter losses per share. Alongside a revenue beat, these results are overshadowing a disappointing first-quarter forecast. 

UPST has spent the last six months consolidating in a tight range, first between the $15-$30 level, and more recently between $15 and $25. Year-to-date, the equity is up 51.9%, though resistance is emerging at UPST's 160-day moving average.

Jefferies slashed its price target to $15.50 from $20 after the earnings event. As a whole, analysts are overwhelmingly bearish toward UPST. Of the 14 analysts in coverage, 13 carry a "hold" or worse rating, plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $14.04 is a large discount to current levels. 

Options traders, meanwhile, have been much more optimistic than usual. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 2.70 calls have been picked up for every put in the last 10 weeks. This ratio ranks higher than 94% of readings from the past year. 

So far today, 81,000 calls and 72,000 puts have been exchanged, which is five times the intraday average amount. The February 20 call is the most active bar far, with new positions opening at the February 18 put. 

Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 10:37 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks
So far today, 49,000 calls have already crossed the tape, which is triple the intraday average volume, compared to just 20,000 puts. The most popular contract is the February 20 call.
Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 10:16 AM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Trader Content

Below is an excerpt from this yesterday's episode of Schaeffer's Playbook of the Week, featuring Schaeffer's Senior Market Strategist Matthew Timpane. Below, Matthew makes a bullish case for logistics giant United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS).

"UPS, per the chart, is in a cup-and-handle formation right now. It broke out of that short-term downtrend, has now formed a cup, and pulled back into trend. It also put in an inside-weekly candle. The 21- and 200-day moving averages are just below and could be supportive. The stock's volume weighted average price (VWAP) is right near that trend level, too.


There's a lot of things going right for this stock, even with that recent oil pop. UPS typically takes a backseat when oil pops because energy costs are expected to rise. Given that outperformance during a testy period, UPS could be primed to rally back up toward $195. Despite this optimism, there's more skepticism from analysts, with 15 of the 31 brokerages maintaining "hold" or worse ratings on the equity.

Data at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows UPS with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.16 that stands higher than 95% of annual readings.

Options are fairly cheap, with stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 23% stands in the 7th percentile of readings from the past year."

Join Schaeffer's Playbook of the Week now and tune in every Monday morning at 8:30 a.m. to get ready for the trading week with me. Click here for more information to get started.

Schaeffer's Playbook of the Week

Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 9:14 AM
Updated on Feb 15, 2023 at 9:17 AM
  • Opening View

Stock futures are pointed firmly lower this morning, as traders unpack retail sales data. The number for January jumped 3% -- instead of analysts' anticipated 1.9% pop -- marking its quickest monthly rise in nearly two years.

The upbeat report underscores robust demand, and fears of an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve have stocks heading lower. At last check, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are eyeing a 92-point drop, while Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are also lower.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:.

  • Don't buy these stocks during President Day's week.
  • Tailwinds abound for Exxon Mobil stock.
  • Plus, ABNB pops after earnings; apparel stock downgraded; and Analog Devices raises quarterly dividends.

OV 0215

5 Things You Need to Know Today

  1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 1.1 million call contracts and 679,385 put contracts traded on Tuesday. The single-session equity put/call ratio rose to 0.61 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.79.
  2. Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ: ABNB) reported a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat, and also issued an upbeat current-quarter forecast as travel demand stays strong amid recession fears. The stock is surging in response, last seen up 8.1% in premarket trading, while looking to add to its 41.4% year-to-date lead.
  3. Jefferies downgraded American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE: AEO) to "hold" from "buy" and cut its price target to $16 from $18, sending shares 3.9% lower ahead of the open. The analyst in coverage cited the apparel sector's dismal performance in the last eight recessions. Year-over-year, AEO is down 29.3%.
  4. The shares of Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI) is up 4.3% ahead of the open, after the semiconductor giant reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue, amid strength in the industrial and automotive business. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by 13%. ADI has added 18.5% over the last 12 months.
  5. Today also brings the industrial production index, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) home builders' index, and business inventories. 

OV Buzz Chart Feb 15

European Markets Higher After U.K. CPI Data

Asian markets slipped on Tuesday, following hotter-than-expected inflation data stateside. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.4%, with consumer and healthcare names dragging the index, while China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.4%, amid news that China’s Central Bank kept its interest rates unchanged at 2.75%. Elsewhere, the South Korean Kospi dropped 1.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.4%.

European markets are on the rise midday, after U.K. CPI data for January showed inflation falling for the third month in a row, coming in at 10.1%. London’s FTSE 100 is inching up 0.06% at last glance, while the French CAC 40 and German DAX are up 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

Published on Feb 15, 2023 at 8:42 AM
  • Indicator of the Week
Published on Feb 14, 2023 at 4:29 PM
  • Market Recap

Stocks pared their earlier deficits after this morning's hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading sent the market reeling. Investors mused over the Fed's stance on rate hikes as well as an uptick in Treasury yields. The Nasdaq climbed into positive territory by the end of the day, while S&P 500 finished flat, and the Dow closed in the red. Tomorrow, Wall Street will be eyeing January retail sales data. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

  • Pinterest stock flashes historic bull signal. 
  • Cybersecurity stock pops on analyst praise
  • Plus, checking in with Coca-Cola after earnings; analyst sees entry point for OXY; and SPX trendlines to watch. 

Summar 0214

NYSE Nasdaq 1204

5 Things to Know Today 

  1. How tensions between the U.S. and China over the alleged spy balloons are impacting supply chains(CNBC)
  2. The rescue phase is "coming to a close" after the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria. (MarketWatch
  3. Options bulls targeted Coca-Cola stock leading up to its report. 
  4. Analyst sees hefty upside for this oil stock
  5. A look at SPX technicals after last week's pullback. 

Earnings Feb14

UVOL 0214

Gold Futures Bounce Off Monday's Low

Oil futures posted its first session loss in three, with March-dated West Texas Intermediate crude dropping $1.08, or nearly 1.4%, to settle at $79.06 a barrel. News that the U.S. Energy Department will release 26 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2023 put pressure on the commodity. 

Gold prices rose after yesterday's tumble to a five-week low. April-dated gold added $1.90, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,865.40 per ounce. 

Published on Feb 14, 2023 at 1:20 PM
  • Options Recommendations
Published on Feb 14, 2023 at 11:59 AM
  • Midday Market Check
Published on Feb 14, 2023 at 11:43 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Pinterest Inc (NYSE:PINS) is down 0.4% at $24.61 at last check, likely weighed down by the hotter-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading for January. The stock has pulled back from its Feb. 2, one-year high of $29.16, but has found a new floor at the $24 region. The good news is that this latest pullback has PINS trading near a trendline with historically bullish implications.

The trendline in question is PINS' 80-day moving average, which the stock is within one standard deviation from, at last check. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's latest study, the equity saw two similar signals over the last three years, and was higher one month later each time, averaging a 12.5% gain. A comparable move would have the security filling its 7.8% bear gap in the last 30 days.

 PINS 40 Day

Short interest on Pinterest stock is up 8.8% over the last two reporting periods, and the 32.40 million shares sold short now make up 5.5% of PINS' available float. Should this pessimism start to unwind, shares could receive even more tailwinds.

At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio sits higher than 86% of annual readings, suggesting puts have been getting picked up at a faster-than-usual clip. In simpler terms, Pinterest stock could also benefit from a sentiment shift among options traders.

It's also worth noting that options are attractively priced right now. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 53% that ranks in the extremely low 5th percentile of its annual range. It's also worth pointing out that the equity ranks low on the Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), with a score of 0 out of 100. In other words, the security has consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in, making the stock a potential premium-selling candidate.

Published on Feb 14, 2023 at 10:51 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Buzz Stocks

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