Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Updated on Apr 8, 2025 at 9:08 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Stocks are quite volatile today as investors contend with the latest tariff updates and speculate over a bottom to the recent selloff. Within this context, shares of Interactive Brokers Group Inc (NASDAQ:IBKR) are down 2.8% at $141.95, and trading at their lowest level since October. For those looking for buy the dip, IBKR has bullish potential. 

The stock is contending with long-term support at its 320-day moving average today, which also happens to be a historically bullish trendline. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the security is within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR) for the first time in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. 

Within these parameters, three other signals occurred in the past three years. IBKR was higher one month later after each one of these events, averaging a healthy 10.4% gain. 

The equity is also holding on to a 27.8% year-over-year gain, and has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 88 out of 100. 

IBKR April7

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Updated on Apr 7, 2025 at 4:49 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 3:06 PM
  • Most Active Options Update

The chip sector melted down on Friday in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs, with new threats of an additional 50% levy on China if Beijing doesn’t drop retaliatory duties. Today though, Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) stock was last seen up 3.8% to trade at $97.88, as traders rush to buy the dip after a third-straight weekly loss. The shares dropped more than 15% over the past two sessions and earlier slipped to their lowest level since May, culminating in a 26.6% year-to-date deficit.

NVDA Intraday

Nvidia was the most popular stock with options traders in the past 10 days, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks that attracted the highest options volume within that period. NVDA saw more than 26 million calls and 17 million puts traded, easily outpacing Big Tech peers Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). The weekly 3/28 110-strike put was the most active contract in the last two weeks, followed by the weekly 4/4 105-strike call. 

MAO 0407

Now looks like an great time to weigh in with options, with one specific strategy in mind. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at a 24 out of 100, making it a prime premium-selling candidate.

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 1:48 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies are tumbling as investor anxiety over the new tariffs mounts -- especially after President Donald Trump threatened additional levies if Beijing doesn't roll back its retaliatory duties.

Major names like Alibaba Group Holding - ADR (NYSE:BABA), JD.com (NASDAQ:JD), and PDD Holdings - ADR (NASDAQ:PDD) are all trading sharply lower this afternoon, as fears grow over how escalating trade tensions could disrupt cross-border business and weaken consumer demand.

Alibaba Group stock was last seen down 11.2% to trade at $103.45 after its third consecutive weekly loss. The stock has shed 25.9% over the past month and is on pace for its 11th loss in the last 13 sessions. BABA is now trading below its 126-day moving average for the first time since late January and is testing a key psychological support level at $100.

JD.com stock is down 8.6% to $33.61 this afternoon. The stock has lost 31.7% over the past six months and is now off 7.1% in 2025. JD is trading beneath its 160-day moving average for the first time since late September and is threatening to close below $34 -- a level not breached since mid-January.

PDD stock was last seen 6.8% lower to trade at $97.17. The equity is headed for its eighth loss in the past 10 sessions and has dropped below the $100 mark for the first time since early February. While shares remain flat on a year-to-date basis, they’ve fallen 16.5% over the last 12 months and are now trading below all major short- and long-term moving averages, signaling broad technical weakness.

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 11:59 AM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are plunging midday, as Wall Street paces for a third-straight daily loss amid escalating global trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is down over 1,000 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has shed triple digits, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) lingers near bear market territory. An earlier rebound faded quickly after the White House denied rumors of a tariff pause, calling reports of a 90-day delay “fake news.”

Fueling the selloff, President Trump threatened to impose new 50% tariffs on China if Beijing doesn’t drop its retaliatory duties. With negotiations stalling and recession fears growing, investors are currently bracing for a prolonged global trade war, reflected in the Cboe Volatility Index's (VIX) surge back above the critical 50 level.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • How much further can Starbucks stock drop?
  • Analyst thinks discount retailer can brave Trump's tariffs.
  • Plus, ALLY sees call surge; DLTR scores bull note; and a falling China stock.

Midday Market Stats April 072025

Ally Financial Inc (NYSE:ALLY) is seeing elevated options activity, after BofA Global Research lowered the security's price target to $38 from $42, while maintaining a "buy" rating. Though the company's first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to come in slightly below estimates, recession concerns could have a greater near-term impact on price action. So far, over 13,000 calls have changed hands -- 13 times the average intraday volume -- with most activity at the April 36 call, where positions are being opened. Year over year, ALLY is down 19.1%.

ALLY Chart April 072025

Dollar Tree Inc (NASDAQ:DLTR) stock is outperforming today, last seen 5.5% higher at $71.24, after Citigroup upgraded the discount retailer to "buy" from "neutral." The analyst called DLTR a “dark horse winner" in the developing global trade war. The stock has rebounded sharply from Friday's lows and now sits just 4.4% lower year to date.

TAL Education Group (NYSE:TAL) is among the worst performers on the IXIC today, last seen down 12.1% to trade at $11.32, as Chinese ADRs slide on renewed tariff jitters. Traders are bracing for the economic fallout from the latest round of U.S.-China tensions, and TAL just slipped below breakeven on a year-over-year basis.

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 11:20 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Updated on Apr 7, 2025 at 10:44 AM
  • Analyst Update

Dollar General Corp (NYSE:DG) was last seen down 0.5% to trade at $93.59, at least partially insulted from the broad-market selloff after an upgrade from Citigroup to "neutral" from "sell." The firm cited the discount retailer's favorable positioning in regard to tariffs and a potential consumer slowdown, saying only roughly 10% of the company's sales are likely affected, compared to the 50%-100% exposure across most of the retail sector. 

DG has been steadily rising on the charts for the last month, and is up 22.9% since the start of 2025. The stock also broke above long-term pressure at its 200-day moving average at the end of last week, despite immense broad-market pressure. 

Put traders are chiming in today, however. Dollar General has seen 9,378 puts exchanged so far, nine times the put volume typically seen at this point, in comparison to 4,123 calls. The weekly 4/11 60-strike put is the most popular, followed by the May 100 call. 

This represents a shift in sentiment, as calls were much more popular than usual leading up to today. DG's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.70 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 96% of readings from the past year.

 

 

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 10:20 AM
  • Analyst Update

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) stock was last seen 4.4% lower to trade at $78.50, after Baird downgraded it to “neutral” from “outperform” and cut its price target to $85 from $114. The analyst in coverage cited near-term earnings uncertainty, noting that the coffee giant may struggle to hit consensus projections that depend on a same-store traffic recovery -- a trend that has recently shown signs of softening. 

This bear note seems overdue. SBUX sports a 14.1% year-to-date deficit and fell 11.4% over the past 12 months. The stock is coming off its fifth losing week in six and is on track for a roughly 22% three-day skid, though the $76 region could stop today's steep losses.

Analysts were bullish coming into today. Of the 32 brokerages covering SBUX, 19 maintain a “buy" or better rating, leaving ample room for downgrades. Options traders, however, are already on the defensive. This is per Starbucks stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.05 over at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) that sits in the 83rd percentile of annual readings.

Drilling down to today's options activity, 10,000 calls have crossed the tape, which is double the intraday average volume. Most active contract is the weekly 4/17 106-strike call, where new positions are being sold to open. 

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 9:27 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook

 

 

Published on Apr 7, 2025 at 9:10 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 4:26 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 3:16 PM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown
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