Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on May 15, 2025 at 11:30 AM
Updated on May 15, 2025 at 1:10 PM
  • Options Recommendations

Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) stock is facing rejection at its peak call open interest (OI) level and February highs, after the company reported first-quarter results last week. The security’s post-earnings rebound stalled around the 50% year-to-date level and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, setting the stage for lower highs.

PLTR Chart WT repost May 152025

Short interest makes up just 2.3% of the equity’s available float and is sitting at its lowest level since March, leaving plenty of room for short sellers to build their positions. What’s more, peak call OI at the 125-strike emerged as resistance, and a push below $115 could lead the 100-strike to become a magnet for the shares.
 
Finally, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 83 out of 100 indicates it has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations over the past year. Our recommended June put option has a leverage ratio of 5.5 and will double on a 15.8% drop in the underlying security.

Published on May 15, 2025 at 1:08 PM
  • Earnings Preview

As the world’s largest chip-equipment maker, the success of Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) on the charts is tied to how U.S.-China trade tensions thaw out. After the close today, the company steps into the earnings confessional for its second-quarter report, where analysts expect revenue of $7.13 billion and earnings of $2.31 per share, both within the company’s previously issued guidance.

AMAT has a history of negative post-earnings reactions, with declines in three of its last four next-day sessions -- including an 8.2% drawdown in February -- and six of the last eight overall. Over the past eight reports, AMAT averages a 4.6% move, regardless of direction, but for tomorrow's trading the options market is pricing in a 7.9% swing.

Last seen up 0.8% at $175.46, Applied Materials stock is pacing for a fourth-straight gain, extending its year-to-date lead to 7.9%. On Monday, the shares reclaimed their 126-day moving average and are now testing their 200-day trendline, poised to clear the latter on a closing basis for the first time since October.

AMAT Chart

Options traders are leaning bullish ahead of the event. At the session’s halfway mark, more than 16,000 calls have changed hands, roughly double the average intraday volume. The most popular contract is the June 2027 175-strike call, where new positions are being opened.

Puts have been much more popular than usual, though. AMAT's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.95 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 81% of readings from the past year. So while calls still outflank puts on an absolute basis, the high percentile suggests the ratio is on an uptick that nears an annual high rate.

Published on May 15, 2025 at 11:52 AM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are struggling for direction midday, following an onslaught of economic data. The producer price index (PPI) dropped 0.5% for April, below the expected 0.3% rise. Jobs data remained stagnant, while retail sales rose of 0.1%, a steep pullback from March's 1.7% increase. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is off 90 points at last check, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is marginally higher, both having pared earlier triple-digit drops. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is trading just above breakeven, both for the day and the year.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • More economic data is on the way.
  • Billion-dollar M&A bolsters Foot Locker stock.
  • Plus, bulls circle Cisco; retail stock's post-earnings pop; and UnitedHealth's latest scandal. 

mmcchartmay15

Options traders are flocking toward Cisco Systems Inc (NASDAQ:CSCO), after the tech company posted a fiscal third-quarter earnings and revenue beat. At last check, the equity is trading up 6% at $65.44, trading back near its February highs. So far, 173,000 calls and 41,000 puts have been exchanged, nine times the average daily volume. Most popular are the May 64 and 65 calls, where new positions are being bought to open. For 2025, CSCO sports a 10% lead.

Retailer Boot Barn Holdings Inc (NYSE:BOOT) is one of the top stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today, up 19.8% at $158.15, the footwear concern brushed off a fiscal fourth-quarter earnings miss. An increase in quarterly sales is instead driving share price today. BOOT is eyeing its best daily pop since 2020 and is now back above its year-to-date breakeven mark.

On the flip side of the NYSE is insurance provider UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) is down 18.6% at $250.63, after the Wall Street Journal broke news of a probe against the company regarding Medicare fraud. This will mark the stock's eighth-straight session in the red, and is pushing the shares below the round 50% year-to-date mark.

unhchartmmc

Published on May 15, 2025 at 11:43 AM
  • Strategies and Concepts

How Options Trading Strategies Differ From Futures

by Schaeffer's Digital Content Group

At first glance, options and futures seem to have a lot in common. Both vehicles give you the opportunity to bet on the future performance of an underlying asset. Plus, both options and futures are based on a predetermined quantity of the underlying, and have a set expiration date. They can be used either to speculate or to hedge.

That said, there are some key differences between options and futures. The most crucial distinction is the obligation involved. An options contract gives you the right to buy or sell the underlying asset upon its expiration, but not the obligation. Conversely, holding a futures contract imposes the obligation to fulfill its terms.

In fact, whereas traders shell out a premium to buy an option contract, futures buyers pay what's called an "initial margin," which is essentially a down payment. The initial margin is then applied toward the total cost of the underlying asset at the appropriate time.

At expiration, a long options position can be exited by either selling to close, or exercising if the option is in the money. Meanwhile, an expiring futures contract can be settled by either physical delivery of the asset, or with cash. However, a short futures position can be used to offset a long futures position and exit the trade, just as with long and short option trades.

Published on May 15, 2025 at 10:27 AM
Updated on May 15, 2025 at 10:33 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Sneaker retailer Foot Locker Inc (NYSE:FL) is surging this morning, up 82% at $23.49 at last check, after news broke that peer Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) will be buying the chain. The unanimous $2.4 billion -- or $24 per share deal -- implies an 86% upside to Foot Locker stock's current trading price. On the heels of the news, DKS is down 14% at $179.62.

Foot Locker has been trading at nearly 15-year lows in recent weeks, still sporting a nine-month, 28% deficit, even after today's impressive lift. The 20-day moving average moved in as a level of support this past week, however, aiding in a small boost in FL shares. Today's surge puts the equity toward its best single-day percentage pop ever.

Short interest has risen 7.8% during the past two reporting periods, which now accounts for more than 16% of the stock's total available float. At the stock's average pace of daily trading, it would take shorts three days to buy back their bearish bets.

Published on May 15, 2025 at 10:32 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Buzz Stocks

Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) stock is falling this morning, last seen 3.8% lower at $93.20 even after the retail giant beat quarterly earnings expectations and delivered its first-ever profitable quarter for e-commerce operations. Revenue for the three-month period landed just shy of estimates, while executives warned that recently lowered tariffs remain “too high” and could still drive consumer prices higher by June. Despite the uncertainty, Walmart reaffirmed its full-year sales and earnings guidance.

The options pits are buzzing with activity. Already, 92,000 calls and 76,000 puts have exchanged hands today, which is 4 times the average volume typical for this point in trading. The most popular contract by far is the June 110 call, followed by the May 90 put, which expires at the conclusion of tomorrow's session.

WMT opened the session near the $92 mark but has since bounced off its morning lows. The equity is working to recover from its early April slide below $80 -- a drop triggered by President Donald Trump’s initial tariff rollout -- and now has technical support from its 40-day moving average. Despite today’s pullback, Walmart stock is still clinging to a 2% year-to-date lead.

Published on May 15, 2025 at 10:00 AM
  • The Week Ahead
 
Published on May 15, 2025 at 9:23 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on May 14, 2025 at 4:27 PM
  • Market Recap
  
Published on May 14, 2025 at 2:21 PM
Updated on May 14, 2025 at 2:29 PM
  • Technical Analysis

Although earnings season is winding down, there are still a few reports next week worth monitoring. Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) will announce its latest quarterly report after the close on Tuesday, May 20. Analysts expect the homebuilding name to post earnings of $2.86 per share on revenue of $2.5 billion, representing a decline of 15.4% and 11.8%, respectively, from the same quarter last year. 

Over the last two years, Toll Brothers stock only closed three post-earnings sessions lower, though that includes the last two. The stock has averaged a 4.8% next-day swing, regardless of direction, which is slightly lower than the 5.8% move the options pits are pricing in for next Wednesday's trading. 

At last look today, TOL was down 2.6% at $106.52. The stock has been on the rise since its April 9, 52-week low of $86.67, and earlier this week managed to break above long-term resistance at the 60-day moving average. Year-to-date, the equity is still down 15.5%. 

TOL May14

Calls have been much more popular than usual over the last 10 weeks. TOL's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.25 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 98% of readings from the past 12 months. 

TOL tends to outperform options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, making this an excellent opportunity to weigh in with options, even with earnings looming. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 72 out of 100.

 
Published on May 14, 2025 at 2:08 PM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Editor's Pick
  • Buzz Stocks

Two nuclear energy stocks are making major moves this afternoon, NuScale Power Corp (NYSE:SMR) and Oklo Inc (NYSE:OKLO). The latter has been one of the best performers on Wall Street today, while the former is enjoying a halo lift.

Quarterly Report Sends Oklo Stock Soaring

Nuclear energy maven OKLO reported a slimmer-than-expected adjusted first-quarter loss of seven cents, while also announcing it was moving forward with the location of its first plant. CEO Jacob DeWitte has said Oklo remains on course to achieve commercial power by the end of 2027.

OKLO is up 17.4% to trade at $37.30 in response, padding its 76.2% year-to-date gain. The shares have staged a neat bounce off their 200-day moving average, and are now trading at their highest level since late February.

Options are flying off the shelves. Nearly 100,000 calls have changed hands by lunch, volume that's 6 times the average intraday amount. The May 40 call that expires on Friday is the most popular by a wide margin. 

oklochart

NuScale Right There With Sector Peer

Looking toward NuScale Power stock, the shares were last seen up 4.3% to trade at $22.59, enjoying a halo lift today. The shares added 21.6% yesterday, after the company's first-quarter revenue exceeded expectations. Similar to its sector peer, NuScale specializes in small modular reactors (SMRs) that are designed to meet power demand goals with a smaller footprint. 

SMR is now up 28% in 2025, breaking out of a channel of lower highs starting with its Nov. 29 record peak of $32.30. Year-over-year, the equity is 212% higher. NuScale options activity is also elevated, with 39,000 contracts trading hands, volume that's 5 times the average intraday amount. The June 25 call is the most popular, with new positions being bought to open. 

Both stocks have massive short squeeze potential. Roughly 13.8% of OKLO's total available float is sold short, while short sellers represent 20% of SMR's total available float. 

smrchart

Published on May 14, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Updated on May 14, 2025 at 12:15 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are on the rise midday as Wall Street tries to build off its strong start to the week. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is continuing to rally thanks to chip stocks, last seen up 107 points. Should these gains hold, this would mark a sixth-consecutive gain and longest daily win streak since August for the index. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) are seeing more volatility today, though both are quietly higher at last glance. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • Popular chip stock reveals share buyback, AI deal. 
  • Unpacking American Eagle stock's sharp downturn. 
  • Plus, options bulls target SMCI rally; ECG eyes best day ever; and GRAL plummets on revenue miss. 

MMC May 14

Options bulls are blasting Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI), as the stock extends yesterday's 16% gain, up 16.9% at $45.46 at last glance. So far, 809,000 calls and 215,000 puts have been exchanged, which is 5 times the average options volume SMCI typically sees in a session. The May 50 call is the most popular, with new positions being opened there. For potential reasons behind the surge, SMCI is closely linked to Nvidia's (NVDA) server products and artificial intelligence (AI) as a whole. The firm also received a brand-new "outperform" rating from Raymond James on Tuesday. On the charts, the stock is now firmly above former resistance at the 180-day moving average.

SMCI May14

Publicly traded since October, Everus Construction Group Inc (NYSE:ECG) is headed for its highest single-day percentage gain ever. The stock was last seen up 21.3% at $62.37, after the company's first-quarter earnings results, which showed substantial growth amid data center construction and other high-tech infrastructure projects. Now trading at its highest level since mid February, ECG is down 5.5% year-to-date. 

Meanwhile, biotech stock Grail Inc (NASDAQ:GRAL) is down 20.5% at $34.10, despite narrower-than-expected first-quarter losses per share, after a revenue miss. Still, Canaccord Genuity raised its price target to $43 from $32. Year to date, the equity is still up 91.5%. 

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