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Tesla's Q2 could be one for the record books, if past is precedent
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has been a tale of two quarters to start the year. The electric vehicle (EV) giant kicked off 2025 with a 35.8% drawdown, but has gotten off the mat for the second quarter, up nearly 40%. The torrid rally could have legs, with TSLA entering a historically bullish month.
Over the past 10 years, Tesla stock has been the best S&P 500 Index (SPX) member to own in the month of June, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. The shares averaged a monthly gain of 11.6% and ended the month higher 80% of the time -- the top-performing name on the list below.
A move of similar magnitude would have TSLA back above $400 for the first time since January, while also clearing its year-to-date breakeven level. If the V-shaped rally is really on, keep an eye on analyst revisions; 23 of the 41 brokerages rate the stock a "hold" or "strong sell," while the consensus 12-month price target of $289.20 is a 20.2% discount to its current perch of $362.78.
Short-term options traders have been scooping up TSLA at a discount. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 63% sits in the 24th percentile of its annual range, suggesting Tesla's near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.
Its also worth noting that the security's
Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 80 out of 100. In other words, the equity has exceeded option traders' volatility expectations during the last 12 months.