Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Updated on Apr 4, 2025 at 2:12 PM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Options Recommendations

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this TOL commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

Homebuilding name Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) has suffered a series of lower lows since December, breaking beneath its July 2024 bottom earlier this month. The shares also made a fakeout move back above this area last week, but eventually closed below it. There has been a follow through of selling following the stock’s mid-February negative earnings reaction, too, making now the perfect time to buy puts.

 
TOL is in the red double digits both for 2025 and over the past 12 months, despite optimistic analysts. Of the 18 in coverage, 11 carry a "buy" or better rating, leaving ample room for downgrades. Shorts are building their positions as well, with short interest climbing off a multi-year low.
 
Our recommended June put has a leverage ratio of 5.2, and will double on a 14.5% drop in the underlying shares.
Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 12:11 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Wall Street is set to extend its brutal selloff, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) headed for their worst weeks since 2020. The Dow was last seen down more than 900 points, while the Nasdaq has officially entered bear market territory after falling over 21% from its December record closing high. Plus, both the SPX and IXIC are pacing for their sixth negative week in seven.

Renewed recession fears and President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs triggered swift retaliation from China. Despite strong March jobs data, investors are cautious following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks. Powell said the central bank faces a “highly uncertain outlook” due to tariffs, which could raise inflation and slow growth. He added the Fed will hold off on any interest rate moves until economic impact becomes clearer.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • 3 chip stocks to watch amid sector selloff.
  • China's retaliatory tariffs dent 2 equipment stocks.
  • Plus, BA options activity spikes; MKTX bucks selloff; and DD sinks on China probe.

Midday Market Stats April 042025

Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) stock is seeing a surge in options activity, with 91,000 calls and 99,000 puts exchanged so far today -- triple the average intraday volume. The expiring weekly 4/4 145-strike call is most popular, with new positions being opened there. The aerospace stock is down 8% at $138.90 at last glance, after China announced a 34% tariff on U.S. imports that will impact the company's exports and sourcing. BA earlier dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, and fell 24.3% in the last 12 months.

BA Chart April 042025

MarketAxess Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MKTX) is one of only a few stock in the black today, last seen up 2.2% at $220.80. The bond-trading platform reported record trading volumes in March, helping shares recover from a choppy start to the year. MKTX added 7.1% in the last nine months, but is still hovering just below breakeven on a year-to-date basis.

DuPont de Nemours Inc (NYSE:DD) stock is among the SPX’s worst performers, down 10.6% at $60.62. The bear gap follows news that China’s State Administration for Market Regulation launched a probe into DuPont China Group over suspected monopolistic behavior -- a major development amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Tariff pressures are also weighing on DD, which is now 20.8% lower year to date.

Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 11:52 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 10:58 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Equipment stocks Deere & Co (NYSE:DE) and Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT) are both succumbing to broad-market pressure today, after China announced retaliatory tariffs of 34% on the U.S. 

DE was last seen down 4.6% to trade at $426.72, hitting its lowest levels since mid-January. The shares are headed for a third-straight loss and worst week since August 2024. The stock is testing its upward-sloping 200-day moving average today, a trendline to watch going forward.

In the options pits, Deere stock has seen 4,325 puts exchanged so far, seven times the put volume typically seen at this point, in comparison to just 446 calls. The June 370 put is the most popular, with new positions being bought to open. 

CAT was off 5.5% at $289.01 at last glance, trading at its lowest level since January 2024. The shares are pacing for their worst weekly performance since March 2020. Keep an eye on the equity's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI), breaching 20 earlier today and firmly in "oversold" territory.

Calls have been more popular than usual leading up to today, per the stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.50 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks higher than 86% of readings from the past year. Today, however, the stock has seen 2,783 puts exchanged in comparison to 1,952 calls. 

 

Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 10:31 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Semiconductor stocks are tumbling this week, as Wall Street reacts to President Donald Trump’s new tariff policy. The White House's baseline 10% tariff on all countries -- with even steeper country-specific levies to follow -- is sparking a sharp selloff across the chip sector.

Heavily exposed to Asian supply chains and global export markets, Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO), and Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MRVL) shares are taking a heavy hit.

Qualcomm stock was last seen 4.1% lower at $133.70, extending its year-over-year deficit to 20.7% and bringing its 2025 losses to 12.4%. The security yesterday closed below the $150 level for the first time since February 2024, and is also on track for its worst weekly performance since January 2022.

Broadcom stock is off 6.7% to trade  at $143.70 at last glance — its lowest level since September. Despite scoring a Dec. 16 all-time high of $251.88, AVGO is already down 37.9% this year, dragged lower by a persistent three-month downtrend. The stock is now on track for its sixth weekly loss in the last seven.

Marvell Technology stock is down 11.5% at $49.27, now 55.1% lower year-to-date. MRVL is now trading at its lowest level since November 2023 -- a far cry from its Jan. 23 record high of $127.48. With just three weekly wins so far in 2025, the equity is eyeing its worst week since 2002.

Published on Apr 4, 2025 at 9:10 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Apr 3, 2025 at 4:25 PM
  • Market Recap
 
Published on Apr 3, 2025 at 1:54 PM
  • Strategies and Concepts

Volatility, which refers to the propensity of a security's price to move higher or lower, has several key concepts within the realm options trading.

Implied volatility (IV) heavily influences the price of an option, because it measures the market's expectations for the underlying equity's performance during the life span of the option. The widely accepted rule is that higher IV means bearish price action, while lower IV is associated with bullish price action. For traders, this means that in the case of a high IV, options buyers might want to steer clear, as this means a more expensive cost of entry, whereas option sellers may want to capitalize as a way of maximizing the premium collected. It's worth noting that IV tends to move higher in anticipation of major events. 

Often after these major events such as a quarterly earnings report, implied volatility drops suddenly in a "volatility crush." In this scenario, the "uncertainty premium" drops out of the option price after the event. The threat of a volatility crush means option buyers should pay attention to implied volatility levels prior to entering a trade. When the disconnect between implied volatility and the actual realized movement is wide enough, option buyers can end up losing money on a trade, even if the shares are moving in the right direction. A volatility crush can also occur if there's a significant plunge in the CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX). 

Historical Volatility (HV) is a backward-looking metric, as opposed to IV's forward-looking. The most common way to calculate HV, which measures how much the stock has moved over a set time frame, is to take the standard deviation of the difference between the stock's daily closing changes compared to the mean value of the stock during that same time period. In trading, HV is often used to compare to IV in order to gauge how much volatility can be expected going forward. 

Published on Apr 3, 2025 at 1:21 PM
  • Buzz Stocks

 

 

 

Published on Apr 3, 2025 at 12:34 PM
  • Midday Market Check

Stocks are plunging midday, as Wall Street reacts to President Trump’s sweeping tariff policy. The White House unveiled a baseline 10% tariff on all countries effective April 5, with higher, country-specific duties rolling out April 9.

The harsher-than-expected levies triggered a broad premarket selloff. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is back in correction territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is more than 1,400 points lower -- pacing for its worst single-session drop since September 2022 as the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) also sinks.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

  • Nike stock sinks to 6-year lows on Trump's tariffs.
  • Apple stock eyes worst day since Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Plus, tariffs hit Wayfair stock, and 2 stocks moving in opposite directions after earnings.

Midday Market Stats April 032025

Wayfair Inc (NYSE:W) stock is seeing unusual options activity, with over 17,000 puts traded so far today -- 6 times the average intraday volume. The most active contract is the September 20 put, where positions are being opened. This surge in activity follows a 12% drop in the shares, amid heightened U.S. tariffs on goods from Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. CEO Niraj Shah previously noted these countries are key sourcing hubs. W is now down 58.6% year over year and is trading at its lowest level since March 2020, last seen down 23% to trade at $25.98.

W Chart April 032025

Lamb Weston Holdings inc (NYSE:LW) stock is one of the top performers on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today, last seen up 10.5% at $59.83. The potato product giant topped fiscal third-quarter expectations, reporting adjusted earnings of $1.10 per share on $1.52 billion in revenue. LW is on track for a third-straight gain and added 17.2% in the last month, but remains 12.5% lower this year.

RH (NYSE:RH) is the worst performing stock on the NYSE, last seen down 40.5% at $148.50, after the luxury home retailer’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and guidance fell short of estimates. The company reported earnings of $1.58 per share on $812 million in revenue, with CEO Gary Friedman calling the current housing market the worst since in almost 50 years. Now down 62.8% since the start of 2025, RH is trading at its lowest level since May 2020.

Published on Apr 3, 2025 at 11:13 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
 
Published on Apr 3, 2025 at 11:05 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) was last seen down 8.9% at $203.94, leading Big Tech losses after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs. Rosenblatt Securities warned AAPL could see $39.5 billion in tariff costs, and would need to hike device prices 40% to offset them.

Additionally, BofA Global Research cuts the stock's price target to $250 from $265. During his speech, Trump applauded Apple for its plan to spend $500 billion in the U.S. in the next four years, with Jefferies noting this could help the tech company secure a tariff exemption.

AAPL is trading at its lowest level since August and looking to snap a four-day win streak, as it heads for its largest single-day percentage drop since March 2020. Since the start of the year, the equity is down 18%

So far in today's options pits, 428,000 calls and 453,000 puts have traded hands -- double the overall options volume typically seen at this point. Expiring tomorrow, the weekly 4/4 200-strike put is the most popular contract, followed by the 210-strike call in that same series. 

Puts were more popular than usual leading up to today as well. AAPL's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits higher than 90% of annual readings.

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