Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 2:34 PM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Quantitative Analysis

Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ:LULU) stock was last seen trading at $319.20, brushing off global trade tensions thanks to a price-target hike from TD Cowen to $373 from $370. The shares are testing their 320-day moving average before the retailer's first-quarter report, due out after the close on Thursday, June 5. This pressure could come crashing down soon, however, given LULU summer seasonality.

LULU Stock Chart

The athleisure retailer is among the best S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks to own this month, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. The shares averaged a monthly pop of 9.4% and ended the month higher 80% over the past decade. LULU is also the only retailer on the list. 

A comparable move from its current perch would place shares just shy of $350, clearing that aforementioned ceiling. The security would also hit its highest trading level since March and extend its 23% nine-month lead. A round of bull notes could keep tailwinds blowing, as 14 of the 31 firms in coverage call LULU a "hold" or worse.

There's also short squeeze potential. Short interest already fell 8% in the last two reporting periods, yet the 5.94 million shares sold short still make up 5.4% of the stock's available float.

LULU has a positive history of post-earnings reactions, finishing six of its last eight next-day sessions higher, including a 16% gain in December. The security averaged a 9.2% move over the last two years, regardless of direction, and this time around the options pits are pricing in a bigger 13.8% move for Friday's trading.
Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 2:23 PM
  • Editor's Pick
  • Best and Worst Stocks

Casino stock Wynn Resorts Inc (NASDAQ:WYNN) is trading 1.9% lower at $88.83 at last check, starting off June on a sour note. The shares are eyeing their fourth-straight loss, extending a pullback from their May 15 five-month highs, and testing support at the $90 level today. Plus, if past is precedent, WYNN could be due for even more losses. 

wynndaily

Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White compiled a list of the 25 worst S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks to own in June, going back a decade, and Wynn Resorts stock is in the top 10. WYNN has averaged a loss of 3.3% for the month, finishing lower 70% of the time over the last 10 years. 

Options traders are leaning bullish, leaving ample room for headwinds, should this upbeat sentiment begin to unwind. WYNN's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.18 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 75% of readings from the past year. 

Options are looking affordable as well, per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33%, which ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. This means options traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. WYNN has also tended to outperform these expectations, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 99 out of 100. 

Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 1:43 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Grocery store giant Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) has been steadily chopping higher on the charts for almost a year now. Though there was a recent pullback following the stock's April 22, record high of $73.63, layers of underlying technical support are keeping the losses in check. 

The stock recently rebounded off $66, which is home to its ascending 100-day moving average. Plus, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the shares are within one standard deviation of their 80-day moving average for the first time in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. Within these parameters, 11 other signals have occurred within the past three years, after which the stock was higher one month later 55% of the time, averaging a 3.7% gain. 

KR June2

Should KR stage an upward swing, an unwinding of short interest may provide additional tailwinds. Of the stock's available float, 6.1% is sold short. It would take shorts nearly five days to cover their bearish bets at the equity's average pace of trading. 

There is still plenty of room for upgrades, too. Of the 20 analysts in coverage, 11 carry a "strong buy" rating, but nine still sport a tepid "hold." 

Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 12:02 PM
  • Midday Market Check

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) are lower this afternoon, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) sits flat, as U.S.-China trade tensions ramp up. A senior White House official said talks will take place "very soon" between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping, though a date was not specified. Meanwhile, Trump announced a steel tariff increase to 50% and a spike in bond yields has pushed the 10-year note to 4.4%. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

  • Controversial airliner lands analyst praise.
  • 2 EV stocks in focus on Wall Street today.
  • Plus, crypto stock to watch; steel giant making moves; and golf giant dragged lower.

mmcchartjune2

Options traders are targeting Applied Digital Corp (NASDAQ:APLD) today, with 160,000 calls and 59,000 puts exchanged so far -- 9 times the average intraday volume. Most popular is the weekly 6/6 10-strike call, where new positions are being sold to open. The crypto name landed a 15-year lease with CoreWeave (CRWV), which will be worth $7 billion in revenue. At last glance, APLD is trading up 43.8% at $9.82, pacing for its best daily pop since Sept. 5.

Riding at the top of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) this afternoon is steel stock Nucor Corp (NYSE:NUE), which was last seen up 10.4% at $120.70. Trump's decision to double steel tariffs to 50% is driving the shares higher, pushing NUE toward its best day since April 9 and a face off with the formerly resistant 120-day moving average. Thanks to today's pop, NUE is back above its year-to-date breakeven mark.

NUEmmcchart

One of the worst NYSE performers today is Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp (NYSE:MODG), down 4.5% at $6.04, after the company announced the sale of its Jack Wolfskin unit to ANTA Sports for $290 million. The casual golfing chain is now eyeing its lowest close since early April and sporting a 22% deficit for 2025.

Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 11:42 AM
  • Most Active Options Update
 
Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 10:53 AM
  • Analyst Update

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) and Steel Dynamics Inc (NASDAQ:STLD) shares are surging today, after President Donald Trump announced plans over the weekend to double steel tariffs to 50% from 25%, effective Wednesday. The move added to global trade tensions weighing on the broader market today. 

CLF is up 27.8% to trade at $7.43 at last check, set to snap a seven-day losing streak with its best single-day percentage gain since 2016. The stock is bouncing off Friday's four-year low of $5.63 as it tests resistance at the 20-day moving average, down 21.2% year-to-date.

STLD was last seen up 11.3% at $136.89, trading at its highest level since December and pacing for its first daily gain over the last four sessions. The security is on track for its best day since November and earlier gapped above overhead pressure at the $40 region, which capped rallies in February and May. For 2025, the shares now sport a healthy 20.1% lead.

In the options pits, STLD is seeing 5 times the overall options volume typically seen at this point in the session, while CLF's is running at 11 times the intraday average. The most active contract for the former is the June 135 put, where positions are being sold to open, and for the latter it's the June 8 call.

Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 10:35 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Two China-based electric vehicle (EV) names are in the spotlight today following their May delivery numbers. Li Auto Inc (NASDAQ:LI) delivered 40,856 vehicles, representing 20.4% growth from April. Nio Inc (NYSE:NIO) announced 23,231 vehicle deliveries -- down from 23,900 in April but still up 13.1% year-over-year -- while its new brand, 'Firefly,' saw decent growth. 

It's worth noting that the EV "price war" -- broadly attributed to BYD Auto -- has caught the attention of the Chinese government, which could be weighing on the sector today. On June 1, the People's Daily, which speaks for China's Communist Party, criticized the "rat-race competition." 

LI was last seen down 2.3% at $27.69, despite the strong data as well as a price-target hike from Goldman Sachs to $35.30 from $31.70. The stock has been consolidating above the $28 level since mid-May, following a sharp rally from its April 9 low of $19.10. Year-to-date, the equity is up roughly 16%. 

Nio stock was down 0.8% at $3.51 at last check, eyeing its ninth loss in 10 sessions. The shares are below all moving averages between the 20- and 320-day trendlines, and were rejected in mid-May at the 100-day. Creeping back toward its April 8 five-year low of $3.02, NIO is down 19.4% in 2025. 

 

Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 10:23 AM
  • Analyst Update
 
Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 9:11 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on Jun 2, 2025 at 8:33 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook

A JPMorgan survey released on Wednesday added emphasis to growing fears in the $29 trillion Treasury market. The poll’s all-client category for outright short positions—which includes central banks, sovereign wealth funds, real money and speculative traders—has climbed to the most since around mid-February. Fueling that doubt is the US losing its last top credit score, passage in the House of a spending bill that would add trillions more to an almost $37 trillion national debt, and a steep selloff in Japan’s super-long bonds.”

   - Bloomberg Evening Briefing, May 28, 2025  

Stock market participants are cautious due to fears of rising interest rates. This has investors wondering if the next major move in bonds is higher (yields lower), and if equity prices will rise as well.

Market positioning is at its most bearish since mid-February. This pessimistic extreme on bonds preceded a major short-term move lower in the 10-year Treasury bond yields from the mid-February high of 4.6% to the early March low of 4.1%.

During that period, stocks moved lower with yields. However, with 10-year Treasury yields moving lower last week, stocks are flat. This happened despite a poor reaction in the stock market to benign inflation data Friday morning, which was supportive of bonds. 

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 5,911.69) found support at its 200-day moving average two Fridays ago, but in eight of the past 13 trading days it has touched the level that coincides with the 2024 close at 5,882, as it trades in a sideways grind. 

Bulls might find frustration in the lack of upside movement the past several sessions, especially after the bullish “outside day” on May 19 that has historically produced bullish price action two weeks after a signal.

Bears might be frustrated too, as neither the stock nor bond markets have responded negatively to non-supportive macro headlines during the past couple of weeks. This includes the U.S. losing its top credit score, a spending bill proposal that is generating deficit worries, ongoing tariff uncertainty related to the Justice Department, trade talks with China stalling, and accusations of China’s non-compliance. 

Such headlines could have easily sent bond yields higher and stocks back below the 2024 close for a sustained period, but that has not yet been the case.

MMO 0602 1

 

We enter the first week of the month and final month of the quarter with the SPX trading roughly 89 points below resistance at the round 6,000-millenium mark, which is also in the vicinity of the pre-Inauguration close in January. 

Plus, this level is 128 points above support at 5,783, the site of its 200-day moving average and the November Election Day close. As such, the technical backdrop in the short-term is neutral, given the index enters the week above its 2024 close but has slightly more downside potential to support at 5,783 than upside potential to 6,000. 

On the sentiment front, two options-related indicators favor the bears. This suggests that a portfolio hedge might be worth considering, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX – 18.57) trading in the vicinity of its March low, indicating options are relatively cheap when compared to portfolio protection prices in April.

The first is the 10-day, buy-to-open put/call volume ratio on SPX components that is currently turning higher from a level indicative of extreme optimism. The recent low in this ratio marked short-term peaks for the SPX on multiple occasions during the past couple of years, as seen on the graph immediately below. 

MM0 0602 2

The second indicator is related to whether a predominance of put or call activity is occurring on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY – 589.39) for those with a one-week or less time frame. Last Tuesday’s post-Memorial Day gap spurred heavier call activity than put activity on the SPY among those focusing on the just expired May 30 options (see first chart below).

During periods of market strength, we usually see an abundance of put activity relative to call activity, as put sellers establish a floor and put buyers bet against the market, which eventually leads to short covering as those puts expire.

Countering the bearish interpretation is short interest, which for the past couple of years has been the biggest risk to short- and long-term bears.

Per the second chart below, short interest on SPX components continues to build, with the SPX still in a longer-term uptrend. In fact, it rose nearly 3% in the first half of May and is up 33% year to date, with the SPX roughly flat for the year.

Short interest represents future buying activity; therefore, it is generally viewed as bullish when at high levels amid an uptrend. If short covering or continued short interest accumulation is occurring amid a major technical breakdown, it would be viewed differently.  But for now, a multi-year high in short interest amid a long-term uptrend should be considered bullish for short- and long-term investors.

MMO 0602 3

MMO 0602 4

Todd Salamone is Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research

Continue Reading:

Published on May 30, 2025 at 4:27 PM
  • Market Recap
  
Published on May 30, 2025 at 12:06 PM
Updated on May 30, 2025 at 4:24 PM
  • Buzz Stocks
 

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