Investors are constantly hunting trends, signs, and signals that could help predict a stock or index's future movement. "Golden crosses" and "death crosses" are just two of the technical indicators utilized by traders seeking an edge.

A golden cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average. Most commonly, an equity or index's 50-day moving average and 200-day moving averages are used to determine when such a cross occurs. A golden cross is considered to be a bullish sign, signaling an oncoming upswing for an equity or index. Besides just signaling a potential upswing, the longer-term average often becomes a support level for that particular stock or index. 

Alternatively, a death cross occurs when a short-term moving average crosses below a longer-term moving average. This is thought to be a bearish sign, signaling an oncoming decline for an equity or index. In the same way the long-term moving average becomes a level of support during a golden cross, with a death cross, the long-term moving average usually becomes a level of resistance. In addition, with both death crosses and golden crosses, the higher the trading volume that accompanies the signal, the more relevant the signal is considered to be.

While the accuracy and usefulness of such indicators are frequently debated, there seems to be evidence that golden and death crosses can indicate both short- and long-term trends to some degree. For example, AAPL experienced a death cross last week, after its 50-day trendline fell below its 200-day, which could lead to further losses in the short term. 

Fintech’s relief rally is already losing steam. Shares of Affirm, PayPal, and other consumer-facing fintech firms turned lower Thursday, giving back gains from Wednesday’s sharp bounce. That surge followed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on sweeping tariff hikes, which briefly eased concerns over rising costs and broader macro pressures.

While duties on Chinese goods were simultaneously raised to 145%, markets viewed the broader delay as a potential softening in Washington’s more disruptive trade stance -- at least for now.

Affirm Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:AFRM) has been especially volatile, down 34.1% year to date despite leading Wednesday’s fintech rebound. The “buy now, pay later” stock jumped 21.5% following Trump’s tariff announcement, with gains amplified by a bullish Evercore ISI initiation at “outperform” and a $50 price target -- well above recent lows near $31. However, the momentum quickly faded, with shares last seen down 10.9% at $39.47 on Thursday.

PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) is also slipping this afternoon, down 6.6% at $59.74 -- giving back much of Wednesday’s 11.4% rally. The stock is pacing for its fourth loss in six sessions, and down 30.4% in 2025, with recent pressure from its 20-day moving average capping upside.

Stocks are retreating Thursday, giving back a portion of yesterday’s historic gains after a temporary easing of global trade tensions. The celebratory mood is proving to be short-lived, however, as traders refocus on the broader implications of President Trump’s trade policy -- especially after the White House clarified that tariffs on Chinese goods now total 145%. All three major benchmarks are sharply lower this afternoon, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) down 970 points.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• Microsoft stock lower after price-target cut.
• Breaking down Costco stock's post-earnings pop.
• Plus, bulls target DJT; PSMT pops after earnings; more acquisition drama for X.

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (NASDAQ:DJT) is once again drawing attention. The stock surged more than 21% yesterday after President Trump posted on Truth Social, "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!" just minutes after the open. The post ended with the letters “DJT” -- his initials, and the ticker symbol for the company he holds a majority stake in. The message came just before he lowered tariffs, giving traders who followed his advice a quick boost. DJT was last seen down 6% to trade at $19.05, and it remains 44.8% lower year to date. Drilling down to today's options activity, 38,000 calls and 14,000 puts have been traded so far -- triple the average intraday volume. Positions are being bought to open at the leading weekly 4/11 21-strike call.

PriceSmart Inc (NASDAQ:PSMT) is among the IXIC's top gainers, last seen up 6.2% to trade at $91.07. The warehouse club operator reported fiscal second-quarter earnings of $1.45 per share, easily topping expectations, while revenue of $1.36 billion was in line with estimates. Despite today's gains, PSMT remains just below its year-to-date breakeven mark.

Shares of United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X) are some of the SPX's worst performing, down 6.8% at $42.04. The bear gap follows comments from President Trump, who said he does not want the steelmaker to be acquired by a Japanese company, appearing to signal opposition to Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel. On the charts, X is puling back from yesterday's rally to its highest level since March 2024. While the 30-day moving average is providing support, the stock broke below its year-over-year breakeven. 

Shares of Lovesac Co (NASDAQ:LOVE) were last seen up 12.1% at $17.86, after the furniture retailer's better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue results and upbeat full-year guidance. The company also appointed Heidi Cooley as Chief Brand and Marketing Officer. 

On the charts, LOVE hit a nearly five-year low of $12.12 yesterday before turning higher for a large 27.8% gain. The 50-day moving average, which the stock hasn't conquered since its mid-December bear gap, appears to be keeping a cap on today's gains, however. Year to date, the equity is down 24.7%. 

Lovesac stock's typically quiet options pits have already seen 24 times its average daily options volume. The April 17.50 call is the most popular, with new positions being opened there. 

Meanwhile, short interest has been building, and now represents 27.8% of the stock's available float. Given the recent rally, plenty of these shorts are underwater, and a bout of short covering could provide further tailwinds. 

Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST) stock is up 2.2% at $986.50 at last check, after the grocery giant reported March net sales results of $25.51 billion, up 8.6% from $23.48 billion last year. Plus, Loop Capital noted the company could become a winner should inflation rise amid tariffs.

COST is on track for a third-straight daily gain, after yesterday notching its best single-day percentage pop since January 2023 amid the broad-market rally. Shares recently staged a bounced off a familiar floor at the $880 region, but overhead pressure remains at $1,000. In the last 12 months, the stock added 36.7%.

Call volume is running at triple the intraday average volume today, with 19,000 bullish bets traded so far compared to only 6,620 puts. The most active contract is the April 1,050 call, where new positions are being opened.

This denotes a shift in sentiment, as COST's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.26 that sits in the 80th percentile of annual readings. In other words, short-term traders have been more bearish than usual, and a further unwinding of this pessimism could boost the shares.

Costco Wholesale stock has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, making this an excellent opportunity to weigh in with options. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 86 out of 100.

The tariff-fueled stock selloff reached a couple of key milestones in recent days. On Monday, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) briefly entered bear market territory on an intraday basis, falling 20% from its prior all-time high -- a commonly used threshold for a bear market.

Another notable move: The SPX dropped more than 10% over the final two trading days of last week -- a rare and significant decline. In this week’s article, I’ll examine how the index has historically performed following these events.

Bear Market Territory 

Since 1929, there have been 15 previous bear market pullbacks of 20% or more on an intraday basis. The table below lists the dates when the index first touched bear market territory and other information on how quickly it declined, how big the loss eventually got, and how long it took to get back to the previous highs.

The SPX currently sits just less than 20% off its most recent all-time high. You can see in the table below how big the pullbacks eventually got, and how many days after hitting a 20% loss it took to reach the trough.

Looking at the median levels, bear markets have bottomed out at around a 29% loss, which happened about 40 calendar days (roughly five to six weeks) after the 20% loss. Quick turnarounds aren’t uncommon, however, with four of the pullbacks in the table below happening within just a day or two of the ultimate bottom.

The speed at which the market recently went from an all-time high to a 20% loss was relatively fast. It took 47 days, which is the third fastest decline in the table. This is good news, as hasty declines have typically led to big gains.

Of the 15 bear market declines, six took less than 100 days. The SPX was phenomenal after those declines, except for the 1929 crash at the beginning of the Great Depression. Despite that data point, the SPX averaged a 19% gain over the next six months after these declines, and a 23% return over the next 12 months.

Excluding that Great Depression decline, it averaged a 23% and 33% return over the next six months and year respectively, with all five returns positive. After the other declines, the index was barely above breakeven six months and a year out.

10% in Two Days

The end of last week was only the sixth time since 1950 the SPX shed double digits over a two-day stretch. The last time this occurred was in March of 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Other than that, there were a couple of occurrences during the financial collapse in 2008 and Black Monday (October 19th, 1987) when the SPX fell over 20% in a single day.

Once again, these very sharp declines were often followed by very sharp increases. The SPX averaged a return of almost 16% over the next six months after these two-day 10% losses. 

Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)  stock is taking a breather after a massive 10% rally on Wednesday. The tech heavyweight was last seen 1.6% lower premarket, following a cautious note from Wedbush, who lowered his price target on MSFT to $475 from $550, while maintaining its "outperform" rating. The firm cited rising tariff-related uncertainty, stating that the escalating “game of poker” between the U.S. and China presents near-term risks for companies with global supply chains -- including Microsoft.

MSFT’s sharp rebound yesterday snapped a five-day losing streak and is now facing off with the 50-day moving average. The bounce comes after the stock hit a low of $344.79 on Monday -- its lowest level since November 2023. Despite the recovery, MSFT remains down 7.4% year to date and continues to face technical resistance from several key moving averages.

Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on Microsoft stock, with 43 of 46 analysts maintaining a “buy” or better rating on the stock. However, the optimism may be overextended, as the average 12-month price target of $498.01 represents a 29.5% premium to Wednesday’s close. This suggests that expectations could be due for a reset, if macro uncertainty continues to weigh on the tech sector.

With MSFT’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) at just 27 out of 100, the stock has tended to underperform the volatility priced into its options. This low reading makes the security a compelling candidate for premium-selling strategies, particularly for traders expecting muted movement in the near term.

Amid broad-market pressure, cloud stock Okta Inc (NASDAQ:OKTA) has pulled back sharply from its March 24, more than two-year high of $118.07, down 12.6% since the start of April alone. For those betting on a bounce, however, the pullback does have OKTA coming into contact with its 126-day moving average, a historically bullish signal. 

Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the security is within one standard deviation of the 126-day trendline for the first time in at least eight of the last 10 trading days, after spending at least 75% of the last six months above it. Within these parameters, two other signals occurred in the past three years. OKTA was higher one month later 100% of the time after these events, averaging a large 28.7% gain. 

The equity is still holding on to a 16.9% year-to-date gain, and has a 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 15.2. This puts the stock firmly in "oversold" territory, another reason its overdue for a short-term bounce.