Stock futures are on the rise this morning, as investors try to leave last week's dismal losses in the rearview mirror. Durable goods orders fell 4.5% for January compared to the 3.6% drop Wall Street expected, indicating consumers are holding back on big purchases. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are eyeing a 238-point pop, and Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) futures are also sharply higher.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:.

• Keep tabs on this electricity and oil stock.
• Recapping a data-filled President's Day week.  
• Plus, Best Buy stock downgraded; buyout rumors boost biotech stock; and Union Pacific to name CEO successor.

5 Things You Need to Know Today

1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 1.2 million call contracts and 943,597 put contracts traded on Friday. The single-session equity put/call ratio stayed at 0.80 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.79.
2. Telsey Advisory Group downgraded Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) to "market perform" from "outperform," citing the impact high inflation and rate hikes could have on the tech retailers' sales and profits. BBY is off 1.7% ahead of the open, and 8.5% year-over-year.
3. Acquisition rumors are boosting Seagen Inc (NASDAQ:SGEN) stock, which was last seen up 13.4% in premarket trading as Pfizer (PFE) reportedly eyes the drug maker that is valued at roughly $30 billion. So far in 2023, the equity has already added more than 25%.
4. Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP) said it will name a successor for CEO Lance Fritz in 2023. The shares are up 9.4% before the bell, enjoying an upgrade from Bank of America to "buy" from "neutral." Over the past 12 months, UNP has shed 19.9%.
5. Today also brings pending home sales data. 

    

Insurance Sector Boosts European Markets

Markets in Asia slipped on Monday, following the U.S. market’s sharp decline last week. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China remained dovish in its quarterly report. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.1% for the day, the South Korean Kospi shed 0.9%, while China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng both dropped 0.3%.

European markets are sporting considerable gains, fresh off a disappointing week for the bourses, with help from the insurance sector. London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.7% at last look, while the French CAC 40 rises 1.6%, and the German DAX jumps 1.5%.

It was a pretty rough President's Day week on Wall Street, as investors mused over the Federal Reserve's stance regarding rate hikes and unpacked a host of economic data. Stocks fell to start the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropping nearly 700 points. The major indexes extended their slide on midweek following the latest Fed minutes, before the S&P 500 Index (SPX) found some relief and snapped a four-day losing streak. However, Friday's red-hot inflation data rattled the market once again, and all three major benchmarks are on track for weekly losses.  

Earnings Reports This Week

Blue-chip retailer Walmart Inc (WMT) announced an upbeat fourth-quarter report this week. Several stocks made big moves after results came in, including Nvidia Corporation (NVDA), which gave the chip sector a boost after its surge, and Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW). Meanwhile, options traders targeted Moderna Inc (MRNA) after its disappointing report and FDA update, and Warner Bros Discovery Inc (WBD) and Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) announced earnings on Friday. 

What's On Tap as March Begins

Earnings season will continue next week, with reports from several retail names. There will be a good amount of economic data too, particularly on Tuesday. Meanwhile, newsletters have been becoming more bullish, which could signal a short-term pullback, and VIX call buying has been at elevated levels as well. 

Stocks fell sharply today, with the Dow logging its fourth-straight weekly loss after January's inflation report showed a hotter-than-expected increase in prices. The S&P 500 marked its third-straight weekly loss and worst weekly percentage drop since Dec. 9, while the Nasdaq finished in the red for the week as well, as investors continue to mull over how the Federal Reserve will react to inflation data going forward. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

• A look at our biggest President's Day week prediction.
• Warner Bros stock shook off lackluster fourth-quarter results.
• Plus, BKNG's new all-time high; DOJ challenges Adobe; and an REIT for options bears.

5 Things to Know Today 

1. The Supreme Court is hearing two cases against U.S. President Joe Biden's student loan forgiveness policy. (CNBC)
2. For another week, Ford (F) is extending its electric pickup truck production pause. (MarketWatch) 
3. Booking stock hit a new record for monthly room bookings.
4. Looming Justice Department challenge dings Adobe stock.
5. Why options bears love this REIT.

Gold Logs Fourth-Straight Weekly Loss

April-dated crude futures rose 93 cents, or 1.2%, to close at $76.32 per barrel, eking out a marginal 0.3% weekly win. Support rolled in as investors weighed Russia's supply and China's demand. 

Gold prices fell for a fourth-straight week. For the session, April-dated gold futures shed $9.70, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,817.10, moving 1.8% lower for the week. January's PCE report gave investors pause, as futures rate hikes and monetary policy could impact gold.

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, February 19.

Historically, President’s Day week garners a poor performance out of the S&P 500 Index (SPX), per data from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. In fact, short trading weeks in general (when one or more Federal holiday closes the market) for weeks in which Monday is the day off, like next week, the index does not outperform five-day weeks. On the flip side, when Friday is the holiday, the SPX pulls a weekly gain that is six times the average of a week with Monday off. 

White also gathered a list of the top 20 outperformers during President’s Day week over the past 10 years. Electricity stocks make up five of the 20 names, including the top three positions. Several other sectors showing up repeatedly include software and electronic equipment. Earlier in the week Schaeffer’s Digital Media Content Manager Laura McCandless covered Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), which holds the top position.

Today I’d like to dig into #2 on the list, Xcel Energy Inc (NASDAQ:XEL), an electric and natural gas delivery giant. Per White, XEL averaged a return of 1.6% President’s Day week over the last 10 years, finishing positive 100% of the time. From the stock’s Thursday close of $67.26, the shares could be looking at a settlement just shy of $69 this time next week.

Xcel Energy stock has seen a volatile six months on the charts, including both a golden cross and a death cross (circled below in red). The bull run following the stock’s golden crossover of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages in mid-November was relatively short-lived, but led the shares just shy of a four-month peak. Subsequently, late last month, the equity saw a death cross of the same two moving averages, which could indicate that next week’s historically bullish outperformance may also be short-lived (if it happens at all).

XEL options traders have been call-heavy in both the long and short term. Albeit amid light absolute volume, Xcel Energy stock sports an Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) reading of 0.56, which sits in the low 18th annual percentile. Echoing this, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 5.20 sits higher than 85% of annual readings, indicating calls have been more popular than usual.

Regardless of the risk you’d be willing to take during the upcoming holiday-shortened week, options are looking extremely affordable. Specifically, XEL’s Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 21% ranks in the 18th percentile of the last 12 months.

FREE: Schaeffer’s Top 2023 Stock Picks!

Schaeffer's Market Mashup Podcast: Threading the Needle With Joe Hargett

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are eyeing a 367-point drop this morning, as investors digest the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which showed the 12-month inflation rate rising to a hotter-than-expected 5.4%, following a 0.6% pop in January. Plus, consumer spending picked up last month. This red-hot inflation data comes after comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester, who said interest rates need to rise above 5%. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:.

• Healthcare REIT options bears love.
• Buy the dip on Southern Copper stock.
• Plus, Boeing pauses deliveries; and 2 stocks moving in opposite directions after earnings.

5 Things You Need to Know Today

1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 1.2 million call contracts and 962,903 put contracts traded on Thursday. The single-session equity put/call ratio fell to 0.76 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.79.
2. Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) paused deliveries of 787 Dreamliners to further analyze a fuselage issue. The blue-chip stock is down 2.7% ahead the bell, but has added 64% over the last nine months.
3. The shares of Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ:BYND) are up 13.3% before the open, after the plant-based name posted smaller-than-expected fourth-quarter losses, as well as revenue beat. However, quarterly sales dipped over 20%. Year-over-year, the security is down 63.8%.
4. Online used car retailer Carvana Co (NYSE:CVNA) is down 9.6% in premarket trading, following worse-than-expected fourth-quarter results, with revenue falling 24% year-over-year. In the last six months, CVNA has shed 73.8%, but in 2023 it boasts a 112.7% lead.
5. The week closes out with personal income, new home sales, and consumer sentiment data. 

European Markets Mixed on Earnings, Economic Data

Asian markets mostly fell on Friday, with the exception of Japan’s Nikkei, which added 1.3%, as investors unpacked remarks from Kazuo Ueda, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) nominated leader. Meanwhile, Japan’s Core inflation came in at 4.2%, its highest level since 1981. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led the losses with a 1.7% drop, while China’s Shanghai Composite and the South Korean Kospi both shed 0.6%.

European Markets are mixed, as the bourses unpack corporate earnings as well as economic data. Germany’s economy contracted by 0.4% in the fourth quarter last year, while France and Germany’s consumer confidence declined in February. British consumers, on the other hand, turned slightly more optimistic. London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.1% at last glance, while the French CAC 40 falls 0.5%, and the German DAX drops 0.7%.

According to a Bloomberg report, Adobe Systems Incorporated's (NASDAQ:ADBE) $20 billion acquisition of Figma will be blocked by the U.S. Justice Department. Citing an unnamed source, Bloomberg revealed that the case is expected to be filed as soon as next month, as competition authorities ramp up their efforts to crack down on large companies buying rising competitors. 

Adobe stock is trading 4.9% lower ahead of the bell, looking to open at $330.15 -- its lowest level since Jan 6. The equity's 200-day moving average is now acting as pressure, after moving overhead last Friday. Coming into today, ADBE was up 3.1% year-to-date, though today's negative price action is threatening that fractional lead.

Over the last few months, puts have been particularly popular. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Adobe stock sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.21 that sits in the 95th percentile of readings from the past 12 months.

Echoing this, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.12 ranks higher than 91% of annual readings. In other words, short-term options traders have not been more put-biased in the past year.

Now could be a good time to weigh in on the stock's next move with options, too, as it sports attractively priced premiums at the moment. This is per ADBE's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 41%, which sits in the relatively low 26th percentile of its annual range. What's more, Adobe stock tends to outperform said expectations, based on its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) rank of 75 -- out of a possible 100.