Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 4:28 PM
  • Market Recap

Wall Street took another step back Wednesday, as bond yields extended their February rise. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4% for the first time since November, while the 1-year yield moved above 5%, though both pulled back before the session's end. In response, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged modest losses, while the Dow eked out a fractional win. Nevertheless, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell for the third-straight day.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

  • Avoid these two bank stocks in March.
  • What weighed on Lowe's stock today?
  • Plus, 2022's best options trades; NVAX at two-year lows; and AMC calls pop.

closing summary mar1

nyse nasdaq Mar1

5 Things to Know Today 

  1. Mortgage demand from homebuyers fell for a third-straight week, hitting a 28-year low. (CNBC)
  2. Lawmakers are considering a plan to raise the full retirement age to around 70 years old. (MarketWatch
  3. The best performing stocks for options traders since 2022.
  4. It's not looking good Novavax stock.
  5. Why call traders blasted AMC stock today.

Earnings Mar1


Oil Prices Close Near 2-Week High

Oil futures closed at their highest level in nearly two weeks, following a 10th straight weekly rise in crude inventories. April-dated crude futures tacked on 64 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $77.69 per barrel.

Following their worst month since 2021, gold prices turned in a win Wednesday. For the session, April-dated gold futures added $8.70, or roughly 0.5%, to settle at $1,845.40 per ounce.

Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 2:30 PM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity
Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 12:12 PM
  • Midday Market Check
Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 11:59 AM
  • Best and Worst Stocks

After a red-hot start to 2023, stocks took a step back in February. Looking ahead, investors will continue to look towards inflation data to gauge how the Federal Reserve will react. You can't count out seasonality, however, so we've compiled a list of the worst performing stocks for the month of March. Today, we're looking at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) as two near-term selling ideas.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of 25 worst performing S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks for March, Goldman Sachs is the worst performing bank stock for the month, when looking at data going back 10 years. JPMorgan Chase stock, meanwhile finds itself near the middle of the list.

Worst of March 12023

According to White's data, GS finished the month lower eight times in the last decade, averaging a 3.7% loss. Meanwhile, JPM closed lower seven times, and averaged a loss of 2.6%.

Goldman Sachs stock just turned in its second monthly loss in three, a trend that has it contenting with its year-to-date breakeven mark. JPMorgan Chase stock is faring a bit better, up 6.2% in 2023. A floor has formed at the $138 level, which has saved multiple pullbacks over the last month, and JPM is trading above most significant moving averages. 

Now could be an ideal time to weigh in on either security with options, as traders are pricing in low volatility expectations. This is per GS's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24%, which stands in the 7th percentile of its annual range. JPM's SVI of 21% ranks in the extremely low 3rd percentile of annual readings. 

Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 10:58 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity
Overall options volume is running at six times the intraday average, with 4,910 calls and 3,762 puts across the tape so far. Most popular is the 3/3 210-stike call, followed by the 195-strike put in that weekly series.
Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 10:31 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:NVAX) stock is plummeting today, down 26.2% at $6.86 at last glance, earlier hitting a two-year low of $6.80, amid company concerns about whether or not it will be able to stay in business. The biotech name's Covid vaccine is its only marketed product.

The company also posted a dismal fourth-quarter report after the close yesterday, with wider-than-expected losses of $2.28 per share alongside a revenue miss. Jefferies cut its price target to $68 from $90 after the event. 

Options traders are targeting the equity amid the negative price action. So far, 15,000 calls and 9,367 puts have been exchanged. The January 2025 10-strike put and weekly 3/10 7-strike call are the most popular, with new positions being opened at the latter. 

The brokerage bunch is split on NVAX, with three of the six in coverage carrying a "strong buy" rating, and three a "hold" or worse. The 12-month consensus price target of $46.83 is a massive premium to current levels, leaving plenty of room for price-target cuts in the near future. 

Year-over-year, NVAX is down 91.9%. The stock is also seeing pressure at its 40-day moving average. It's also worth noting that Novavax stock has landed on the short sell restricted (SSR) list today. 

Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 10:07 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE:AMC) are down 5% to trade at $6.79 this morning, after the movie theater company posted lower-than-expected fourth-quarter losses.

AMC reported quarterly losses of 26 cents per share on revenue of $990.90 million, the latter of which beat analysts' estimates. The results seem to confirm that theater-going will remain below pre-pandemic levels, as rising inflation impacts discretionary spending. Analysts at Wedbush predicted 2023 box office to be down 24% from 2019 levels.

Call traders are undeterred. Within the first half hour of trading, more than 76,000 calls have crossed the tape, volume that's double the intraday average amount. Most popular is the weekly 3/3 6.50-strike put, followed by the 7.00-strike call from the same series. 

Longer term, options traders have been unusually bearish. This is per AMC's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.06, which sits higher than 91% of annual readings and implies a put-bias amongst short-term options traders.

On the charts, AMC stock is set to close back below its 140-day moving average, after toppling the long-term ceiling to start the week. Year-to-date, the meme stock stands more than 64% higher, but sports a 40.5% year-over-year deficit.

Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 9:00 AM
Updated on Mar 1, 2023 at 9:13 AM
  • Opening View

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are muted heading into March, last seen down 43 points after the blue-chip index saw a steep decline for February and turned negative for 2023. Futures on the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) are also pointed modestly lower, despite strong manufacturing data out of China.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:.

  • Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White on where options traders have found success.
  • How analysts responded to Zoom Video's earnings win.
  • Plus, SPOT upgraded; Kohls' surprise earning miss; and Lowe's mixed results.

OV 0301

5 Things You Need to Know Today

  1. The Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE) saw more than 1 million call contracts and 735,177 put contracts traded on Tuesday. The single-session equity put/call ratio rose to 0.69 and the 21-day moving average stayed at 0.79.
  2. Redburn upgraded Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT) to "buy," noting profit margins are set to benefit from the streaming giant's investments and increases to publishing royalties. SPOT is up 0.9% before the open and has added 54.9% in the last nine months.
  3. The shares of Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) are down 7.5% ahead of the bell, after the retailer reported unexpected fourth-quarter losses and a revenue miss. The company blamed inflationary pressures for the disappointing results. Year-over-year, KSS is down 49.6%.
  4. Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE:LOW) stock is up 0.3% in premarket trading, after its mixed fourth-quarter report had profits beating estimates while sales missed the mark. LOW carries a 6.9% year-over-year deficit, but is still above breakeven in 2023.
  5. The ISM manufacturing index and construction spending are on tap today.

OV Buzz Chart March 1

European, Asian Markets Rise on Slew of Economic Data

Asian markets rose today, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumping 4.2% as “reopening” stocks gave the index a boost. Meanwhile, China’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) jumped to 52.6 in February – its highest level since April 2012 – while Japan’s factory activity shrank at its fastest pace in over two years. China’s Shanghai Composite added 1% for the day, while the South Korean Kospi and Nikkei in Japan rose 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. 

Investors are unpacking economic data over in Europe as well, with a flash estimate putting Germany’s inflation rate harmonized with the rest of the European Union (EU) at 9.3% in February, which would be an increase of 0.1% from January. The German DAX is up 0.5% at last glance, while London’s FTSE 100 rises 0.8%, and the French CAC 40 tacks on 0.6%. 

Published on Mar 1, 2023 at 8:00 AM
  • Indicator of the Week
Published on Feb 28, 2023 at 4:28 PM
  • Market Recap

Wall Street posted a losing session, and all three indexes logged steep declines for February, pulling back from a strong start to the year. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since November today, as investors continue to weigh the impact of a higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Wall Street's "fear gauge," the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), meanwhile, logged a healthy monthly win.

Continue reading for more on today's market, including:

closing summary febr28

nyse nasdaq Febr28

5 Things to Know Today 

  1. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said Tesla (TSLA) will build a new plant in Monterrey, Mexico. (CNBC)
  2. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to nominate Julie Su as his next labor secretary. (MarketWatch
  3. Dish Networks stock dinged by double downgrade.
  4. Here's how Target's quarterly report played out.
  5. Why analysts targeted Zoom Video stock.

Earnings Feb28

UVOL Febr28

Gold, Oil Post Daily Gains, Lose for Month

Oil futures rallied today, but logged a 2.3% dip in February to lock in its fourth-straight monthly loss. Black gold was pressured down by a warm weather in the U.S. and Europe, as well as mixed inflation data and hawkish Fed commentary. Still, for the session, April-dated crude futures tacked on $1.37, or 1.8%, to close at $77.05 per barrel.

Gold prices rose Tuesday, but still posted a 5.6% monthly loss -- its largest such decline since June 2021 -- as inflation and a higher-for-longer interest rate hike outlook weighed on the precious metal. On Tuesday, April-dated gold futures added $11.80, or roughly 0.7%, to settle at $1,836.70.

Published on Feb 28, 2023 at 3:28 PM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Global power stock AES Corp (NYSE:AES) is on the rise today, up 1.6% to trade at $25.27 at last glance, and on track for its first positive day since Feb. 15. The company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results before the open yesterday, but the shares couldn't keep the momentum, falling 1.7% by end of day. The equity also received two price-target cuts, including one today from UBS to $30 from $32.

Today's bounce could be short-lived, however, as AES just came within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average. Per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, AES stock has seen five similar signals over the past three years, after which the stock was lower each time, averaging a 5.4% loss. From its current perch, a similar move would put AES just below the $24 level, its lowest level since October.

AES Feb28

A round of downgrades could send the security lower still, as all seven of the analysts in coverage carry a "strong buy" rating. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $31 is already a 22.7% premium to current levels, leaving room for bear notes in the form of price-target cuts. 

Options look like a good way to go when weighing in on AES. The stock is seeing attractively priced premiums, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard Index (SVI) of 28%, which ranks in the low 13th percentile of its annual range.

Published on Feb 28, 2023 at 12:42 PM
  • Options Recommendations

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