Although earnings season is winding down, there are still a few reports next week worth monitoring. Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) will announce its latest quarterly report after the close on Tuesday, May 20. Analysts expect the homebuilding name to post earnings of $2.86 per share on revenue of $2.5 billion, representing a decline of 15.4% and 11.8%, respectively, from the same quarter last year. 

Over the last two years, Toll Brothers stock only closed three post-earnings sessions lower, though that includes the last two. The stock has averaged a 4.8% next-day swing, regardless of direction, which is slightly lower than the 5.8% move the options pits are pricing in for next Wednesday's trading. 

At last look today, TOL was down 2.6% at $106.52. The stock has been on the rise since its April 9, 52-week low of $86.67, and earlier this week managed to break above long-term resistance at the 60-day moving average. Year-to-date, the equity is still down 15.5%. 

Calls have been much more popular than usual over the last 10 weeks. TOL's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.25 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 98% of readings from the past 12 months. 

TOL tends to outperform options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, making this an excellent opportunity to weigh in with options, even with earnings looming. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 72 out of 100.

Two nuclear energy stocks are making major moves this afternoon, NuScale Power Corp (NYSE:SMR) and Oklo Inc (NYSE:OKLO). The latter has been one of the best performers on Wall Street today, while the former is enjoying a halo lift.

Quarterly Report Sends Oklo Stock Soaring

Nuclear energy maven OKLO reported a slimmer-than-expected adjusted first-quarter loss of seven cents, while also announcing it was moving forward with the location of its first plant. CEO Jacob DeWitte has said Oklo remains on course to achieve commercial power by the end of 2027.

OKLO is up 17.4% to trade at $37.30 in response, padding its 76.2% year-to-date gain. The shares have staged a neat bounce off their 200-day moving average, and are now trading at their highest level since late February.

Options are flying off the shelves. Nearly 100,000 calls have changed hands by lunch, volume that's 6 times the average intraday amount. The May 40 call that expires on Friday is the most popular by a wide margin. 

NuScale Right There With Sector Peer

Looking toward NuScale Power stock, the shares were last seen up 4.3% to trade at $22.59, enjoying a halo lift today. The shares added 21.6% yesterday, after the company's first-quarter revenue exceeded expectations. Similar to its sector peer, NuScale specializes in small modular reactors (SMRs) that are designed to meet power demand goals with a smaller footprint. 

SMR is now up 28% in 2025, breaking out of a channel of lower highs starting with its Nov. 29 record peak of $32.30. Year-over-year, the equity is 212% higher. NuScale options activity is also elevated, with 39,000 contracts trading hands, volume that's 5 times the average intraday amount. The June 25 call is the most popular, with new positions being bought to open. 

Both stocks have massive short squeeze potential. Roughly 13.8% of OKLO's total available float is sold short, while short sellers represent 20% of SMR's total available float. 

Stocks are on the rise midday as Wall Street tries to build off its strong start to the week. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) is continuing to rally thanks to chip stocks, last seen up 107 points. Should these gains hold, this would mark a sixth-consecutive gain and longest daily win streak since August for the index. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) are seeing more volatility today, though both are quietly higher at last glance. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

• Popular chip stock reveals share buyback, AI deal. 
• Unpacking American Eagle stock's sharp downturn. 
• Plus, options bulls target SMCI rally; ECG eyes best day ever; and GRAL plummets on revenue miss. 

Options bulls are blasting Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI), as the stock extends yesterday's 16% gain, up 16.9% at $45.46 at last glance. So far, 809,000 calls and 215,000 puts have been exchanged, which is 5 times the average options volume SMCI typically sees in a session. The May 50 call is the most popular, with new positions being opened there. For potential reasons behind the surge, SMCI is closely linked to Nvidia's (NVDA) server products and artificial intelligence (AI) as a whole. The firm also received a brand-new "outperform" rating from Raymond James on Tuesday. On the charts, the stock is now firmly above former resistance at the 180-day moving average.

Publicly traded since October, Everus Construction Group Inc (NYSE:ECG) is headed for its highest single-day percentage gain ever. The stock was last seen up 21.3% at $62.37, after the company's first-quarter earnings results, which showed substantial growth amid data center construction and other high-tech infrastructure projects. Now trading at its highest level since mid February, ECG is down 5.5% year-to-date. 

Meanwhile, biotech stock Grail Inc (NASDAQ:GRAL) is down 20.5% at $34.10, despite narrower-than-expected first-quarter losses per share, after a revenue miss. Still, Canaccord Genuity raised its price target to $43 from $32. Year to date, the equity is still up 91.5%. 

Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) are 2.9% lower to trade at $14.45, on track to snap a four-day win streak after a bear note from Jefferies. The brokerage firm downgraded the auto parts manufacturer to "hold" from "buy," saying that despite a quarterly earnings beat, concerns surrounding the company's R2 program, outside partnerships, and a weak demand outlook weighed. 

Just yesterday RIVN touched its highest level since January, following an early May pullback that was captured by its ascending 20-day moving average. Despite today's drop, the equity remains above its year-to-date breakeven mark.

Heading into today, nearly 70% of the 26 covering brokerages carried a "hold" or worse recommendation. However, with eight analyst still maintaining a "buy" or better and the 12-month average price target coming in at $14.59, there remains plenty of room for more downgrades and price-target cuts. 

Short interest has risen 11.7% during the past two reporting periods, which now accounts for more than 20% of the stock's total available float. At the stock's average pace of daily trading, it would take shorts nearly five days to buy back their bearish bets.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) are up 7.2% at $120.53 at last glance, after the semiconductor company announced a $6 billion share buyback program. Plus, firm is one of multiple chipmakers, including Nvidia (NVDA), to ink a partnership with HUMAIN, a new artificial intelligence (AI) venture in Saudi Arabia. 

Today's pop has AMD headed for its sixth-straight win. Now trading at its highest levels since January, the equity is hanging around breakeven for 2025. The shares' overhead 160-day moving average, which hasn't been toppled on a closing basis since October, is getting tested today. 

One storyline to monitor; the rally off AMD's April 8 two-year bottom of $76.48 has the stock firmly in "overbought" territory, per its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of 90.2. 

Over in the options pits, 415,000 calls and 137,000 puts have been exchanged, which is six times the overall options volume typically seen at this point. The May 25 call is the most popular by far, with new positions being opened there. 

These contracts are reasonably priced at the moment, too. AMD's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 41% ranks in the low 11th percentile of its annual range. 

American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NYSE:AEO) stock is down 5.7% at $11.99 this morning, after the apparel retailer withdrew its 2025 guidance “due to macro uncertainty.” The company now expects a first-quarter revenue decline of 5% to $1.1 billion, and comparable sales to fall 3% -- led by a 4% drop at its Aerie brand. American Eagle also warned of an $85 million operating loss, driven by heavy discounting and a $75 million inventory write-down tied to spring and summer merchandise.

American Eagle Outfitters stock is now down 51.2% year-over-year and 27.8% year-to-date. The shares rallied earlier this week alongside the broader market and briefly broke above their 80-day moving average -- a trendline that’s served as overhead resistance since early December -- but have since slipped back below it. AEO is also trading beneath the $12 level, which acted as resistance throughout most of April and early May.

Options traders are reacting swiftly to the selloff. So far, 19,000 puts have changed hands -- 44 times the typical options volume seen at this point in the session. The June 10 put is by far the most popular contract, with new positions being opened as traders brace for more downside.

This lines up with recent sentiment in the options pits, where puts have been picked up at a faster-than-usual rate. The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.99 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands higher than all other readings from the past year.  

Echoing this, American Eagle stock's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.94 ranks in the 77th percentile of annual readings. In other words, short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased.

Last week, I took a closer look at outside days on a candlestick chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). As a refresher, an outside day occurs when a stock’s daily high is higher than the prior day’s high, and its low is lower than the prior day's low. Essentially, it engulfs the prior day's range. In that article, I broke down when outside days tend to be more meaningful instead of just noise. This week, I’m applying the same analysis to individual stocks within the S&P 500. By the end, I find a setup that stands out - one I’ll be scanning charts for going forward.

Drilling Down on Outside Days

For the following analysis, I looked at S&P 500 stocks since the beginning of 2024. That returned 15,300 outside days total. The table below separates these outside days by where the stock closed on the outside day relative to the prior day’s high and low. If the stock was below the prior day's low then rallied to close above the prior day's high, it would suggest a lot of buying pressure (second column in the table below). On the other hand, if the stock was above the prior day’s high then closed below the prior day's low, it would suggest huge selling pressure (the third column in the table).

The last column in the table below shows non-outside days, which can be used as a benchmark. Stocks tended to be bullish after general outside days. Over the 15,300 outside days, they average about 0.80% over the next month, compared to 0.65% for non-outside days. The percentage of positive returns and the percentage of time they beat the SPX has been about the same for any column. There’s some evidence of mean reversion with the best average return (0.86%) occurring when the stock closes below the prior day’s low. As far as outside days go, the lowest average return is 0.73%, which is when the stock closes higher than yesterday’s high. Overall, however, there’s not a ton here that’s actionable, so let’s drill down further.

Outside days are often considered potential reversal points. With a stock at a high, the selling pressure needed for a bearish outside day suggests a decisive move by traders and a signal that things are changing, vice versa for stocks near a low. Therefore, I broke down the outside days further by whether the stock was near a 52-week high or 52-week low.

The first table considers stocks near a 52-week high and summarizes the performance after outside days, broken down by how the stock closed relative to the prior day’s high and low. In general, outside days on stocks near highs have been slightly bullish. After a bearish outside day (third column) with the stock near a high, the stock beats the SPX just 44% of the time, suggesting it is somewhat of a headwind. The 0.89% average return for the stock, however, means there’s not much of a case to avoid the stock.

In the second table below, I find a very compelling setup. For stocks near a 52-week low that experienced an outside day in which the stock closes above the prior day’s high (a bullish outside day), they averaged a return of 2.84% over the next month, with 67% of the returns positive and 56% of them beating the SPX. This suggests a very good indicator for finding a reversal point in a beaten down stock.

A fun ‘what if’ game is to see what kind of returns you could have gotten on these setups if you played call options instead of buying the stock. Since we specialize in options at Schaeffers, it’s a little more than a ‘what if’ game for us. The table below summarizes how call options would have performed on outside days with stocks near a 52-week low. These are gathered by assuming hypothetical options that are at-the-money, expiring in exactly one month, and closed on expiration day at intrinsic value.

The implied volatility (IV) is calculated using actual IV’s for the stock on the day of the signal. (Note there are slightly fewer returns in the table below, because some stocks had option prices that were too wide to get a decent IV estimate). Buying call options on those bullish outside days with a stock near a 52-week low would have yielded 33% return per trade. A third of the call option trades would have seen a double (100%+ return).

Since 2024, buying call options on stocks near a 52-week low after a bullish outside day has been a very bullish strategy. I will scan for these setups going forward and hopefully the trend continues. For those curious, there have been three signals over the past couple of weeks. PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP) and Campbell's  (NASDAQ:CPB) signaled on Monday this week, and Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) signaled last Thursday. The analysis above suggests these stocks might be ripe for a turnaround.