Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on May 13, 2025 at 10:42 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Shares of athletic wear name Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UAA) are up 0.8% to trade at $6.26 this morning, enjoying a post-earnings lift on the charts. The company posted a narrower-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter loss and topped revenue estimates. CEO Kevin Plank said turnaround efforts are paying off, despite the "complex macroeconomic backdrop" with tariff tensions. 

UAA is facing off with its 80-day moving average and remains 24.5% lower for 2025. May has had a strong start however, with the shares up nearly 10% so far, breaking above the $6 ceiling just yesterday.

Options traders were bullish heading into today. The equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 6.68 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 76% of readings from the past year.

The options pits are red-hot today as well, with total options volume running at triple the average daily pace. Most popular is the May 6 put, with the May 6 call following closely behind.

Shorts have been retreating, down 6.3% in the most recent reporting period. However, the 32.80 million shares sold short accounts for 17.4% of UAA's total available float, making a short squeeze a real possibility going forward. .

Published on May 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on May 12, 2025 at 4:29 PM
  • Market Recap
  
Published on May 12, 2025 at 3:27 PM
  • Most Active Options Update

Chip titan Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is enjoying trade tailwinds with the rest of the "Magnificent 7" today, after the U.S. and China agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs by 115% for 90 days. The artificial intelligence (AI) leader was last seen up 5.3% at $122.76, trading at its highest levels since March. Year-to-date the equity remains down 8.6%.

NVDA May12

Nvidia is a staple on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks that attracted the highest options volume over the past 10 days, topping the list this time around. NVDA saw 19,201,948 calls and 12,992,345 puts exchanged during this time, with the most action at the weekly 5/2 115-strike call, which saw 820,283 contracts cross the tape. 

MAO May12

So far today, NVDA has seen 1.83 million calls and 1.12 puts million exchanged hands. The May 125 call is the most popular by far, with new positions being opened there. 

Options are reasonably priced at the moment, too. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVI) of 49% ranks in the 8th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders are pricing in lower volatility expectations than usual. 

Published on May 12, 2025 at 2:46 PM
  • Earnings Preview

CAVA Group Inc (NYSE:CAVA) has been dubbed the 'next Chipotle,' with the Mediterranean fast casual chain vaulting up the charts since its trading debut in June 2023. The stock has struggled so far in 2025, down 13%, but could be poised for a big move this week as the company's first quarter earnings loom. 

CAVA has a varied history of post-earnings moves. The stock only shed 0.3% after its earnings report in late February, but melted up by nearly 20% after its late August report. Overall, the stock averaged a post-earnings move, regardless of direction, of 6.2% after the last eight reports. This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual post-earnings swing of 14.6%.

Leading up to the event, CAVA shares have been trading in a tight range, at the bottom of a channel of lower lows starting from their Nov. 13 all-time high of $172.42. Since early March, the stock has also tested its 320-day on numerous occasions.

CAVA Stock Chart

There's intriguing short squeeze potential to monitor; short interest has fallen off 10% in the two most recent reporting periods, yet 9.3% of the stock's total available float remains sold short. 

The equity has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, making this an excellent opportunity to weigh in with options. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 84 out of 100.

Published on May 12, 2025 at 12:27 PM
  • Midday Market Check

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is up 862 points midday as Wall Street cheers the temporary reciprocal tariff cuts between China and the U.S. The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and S&P 500 Index (SPX) are soaring as well, with both hitting their highest levels since early March. 

Continue reading for more on today's market, including: 

MMC May12

Options traders are targeting software stock Sea Ltd (NYSE:SE) today, ahead of the company's latest quarterly earnings results, due out before the open tomorrow, May 13. So far, 19,000 calls and 11,000 puts have been exchanged, which is 6 times the average daily options volume already. The July 145 call is the most popular, with new positions opening there. 

Utility stock NRG Energy Inc (NYSE:NRG) is up 24.4% at $148.41 at last glance, gapping to fresh record highs and its best daily percentage pop since July 2017. The company announced strong first-quarter results and a $12 billion acquisition of a portfolio of natural gas generation facilities from LS Power Equity Advisors. Year to date, NRG is up 63.7%. 

NRG May12

Gold mining stock Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ:PPTA) is feeling the heat from its disappointing first-quarter results, as well as sector pressure from the tariff news. At last glance, PPTA was down 16.7% at $12.64, falling sharply from its recent May 2, four-year high of $15.44. Since the start of 2025, the equity is now up 17.4%. 

Published on May 12, 2025 at 11:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Stocks are soaring today, after the U.S. and China agreed to cut "reciprocal" tariffs by 115% for 90 days, with plans for further negotiations in the coming weeks. Unsurprisingly, U.S.-listed shares of China-based stocks JD.com Inc (NASDAQ:JD) and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) are on the rise, up 6.3% and 6.5% at last check, respectively. 

JD.com stock is trading at $35.92, staging a nice little bounce off its 320-day moving average. The equity has now reclaimed its year-to-date breakeven level, and is 11.3% higher year-over-year.

BABA is trading at its highest levels since late March, making a run at its March 17 three-year high of $148.43. Since the start of the year, the stock is up 56.6% and has support in place at its 200-day trendline.

Options bulls are targeting both stocks after the news, with both names seeing double the usual call volume typically seen at this point. For JD, the most popular contract is the June 35 call, while BABA is seeing the most activity at the June 120 call. 

JD.com and Alibaba are both gearing up for their latest quarterly reports this week as well. The former will report before the open tomorrow, May 13, while the latter will report before the open Thursday, May 15. 

Published on May 12, 2025 at 11:02 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Intraday Option Activity

While most of Wall Street is cheering today’s tariff rollback, one stock is rallying especially hard: Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY). The electronics retailer is up 7.6% at $74.09 at last glance, making it one of the top-performing names on the board. The gains come after the U.S. and China agreed to suspend most tariffs -- a move providing immediate relief for retailers heavily exposed to Chinese imports.

Call traders are betting on even more upside. So far today, over 12,000 bullish bets have crossed the tape, which is 7 times the average intraday volume. New positions are being opened at the most popular contract -- the May 75 call.

Today’s surge pushed BBY back above its year-over-year breakeven level, though the stock remains down 13.4% in 2025. On the charts, the equity is gapping back above the $72 level -- an area that briefly acted as support in March, before President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff rollout sent the shares tumbling to their lowest level since early 2020.

Published on May 12, 2025 at 10:58 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

China and U.S. trade talks that ended in lower tariffs for both, triggered an onslaught of upbeat sentiment for the broader market, sending stocks significantly higher to start the week. Not all were so lucky, however, as investors retreated from safe haven assets, sending the likes of mining giant Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) lower.

As last check NEM is off 4.9% to trade at $51.33, headed for its worst daily percentage drop since early April. Despite today's pullback and overhead pressure at the 30-day moving average, the equity sports a 20% year-over-year win.

Options traders were bullish heading into today. The equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.27 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 78% of readings from the past year.

Short-term traders have been leaning bullish as well. This is per NEM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.61 that sits in the 34th percentile of annual readings. A further unwinding of this optimism could weigh on the shares.

Newmont stock has also outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the last 12 months, making this an excellent opportunity to weigh in with options. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 82 out of 100.

 

Published on May 12, 2025 at 9:15 AM
  • Opening View
 
Published on May 12, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Updated on May 12, 2025 at 8:48 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook

The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 5,659.91) moved lower last week after rising for three out of four weeks with the help of mega-cap technology names. However, the decline was inconsequential, a loss off about 0.4%, analogous to watching paint dry after five consecutive weeks of big up and down movement.

We enter standard May expiration week on the heels of three positive weeks out of five and the SPX 13% above the early April closing low. This is almost 4% below 2024’s close, 8% below the February closing high, and roughly unchanged relative to early April (but with significant drama in-between).

Friday’s SPX close was in a familiar area, in the vicinity of short-term highs in July and August. This was the area of the April 2 close, which preceded President Trump's sweeping tariffs announcement and, subsequently, the April 3 gap and 5% SPX decline the following day.

In other words, after a sharp run up to the 5,665-5,670 area from the April low, there is overhang from hesitant buyers and/or sellers thinking “breakeven” that bought the September 2024 breakout or who might have been extremely long ahead of the April 2 “Liberation Hour.”

In fact, ahead of this past weekend’s trade talks with China, a “once bitten, twice shy” mentality was evident last week. The SPX was not able to make significant strides above the April 2 close ahead of what might be viewed as major potential movement this week pending trade talks with China. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX -- 2190), however, is not hinting at major volatility ahead, closing at its lowest level in weeks, but around the same level before it more than doubled in a four-day period last month.

mmo1may11

“Support heading into the week is at 5,530, which is 10% below the February closing high and the area of the March lows. Potential resistance resides between 5,740 – its 12-month moving average – and 5,783, or the Election Day close in November 2024. The 200-day moving average at 5,745 is sitting nearer the lower boundary of this range.”

Monday Morning Outlook, May 5, 2025

If Monday’s and this week’s trading generates more movement than last week, the potential support and resistance levels that I discussed last Monday are still worth keeping on your radar.

One thing that is clearly noticeable heading into May expiration week is that SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY – 564.34) open interest (OI) is unusually low, with total put OI only in the 25th percentile of daily readings during the past year, according to TradeAlert.

To the extent that put open interest is partially driven by hedging of long U.S.-based stock positions, the low put open interest could be due to less hedging among money managers. Anecdotally, I have seen money managers mention stock markets across the ocean as presenting more value than the U.S. and it seems currency and gold are attracting interest. In fact, SPDR Gold shares (GLD – 306.84) total open interest is at an annual high, perhaps an indication of fund managers moving away from U.S. stocks due to tariff uncertainty.

Since SPY open interest is relatively low, I am focusing on the SPX May 16 expiration open interest for clues as to what to expect this week from an option-related perspective.

What stands out to me is the balance between call and put open interest at half-century and century-mark strikes. As such, these strikes may represent volatility dampeners. In fact, premium sellers would love to see a pin in the 5,700 area on Friday expiration.

Trade talks from over the weekend will likely dictate this week’s action and was a major “known, unknown” at the end of trading last week. Stay in tune with support and resistance levels today and the rest of the week, especially if the SPX moves out of last week’s 5,600-5,700 range on a closing basis.

mmo2may11

Todd Salamone is Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research

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Published on May 9, 2025 at 4:25 PM
  • Market Recap
  

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