Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 10, 2018 at 10:10 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shares of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) have jumped 2.2% out of the gate to trade at $296.24, after several analysts issued bull notes on the FAANG stock. While Evercore ISI boosted its NFLX price target to $250 from $220, Raymond James lifted its target price to $330 from $290 -- in line with the security's March 12 record high of $333.98.

The most optimistic outlook came from Morgan Stanley, though. The brokerage firm raised its price target for Netflix by $75 to $350 -- saying it expects first-quarter subscriber growth to be higher than anticipated, and that the streaming service is in the early stages of global growth.

Today's pop helps extend a recent bounce in the $275-$280 region, which is home to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the stock's rally from its early December lows to its mid-March peak, as well as its rising 60-day moving average. However, the round $300 level has served as a ceiling over the past few days. This coincides with peak put and call open interest in the standard April series, suggesting NFLX could get pinned to this strike as front-month options expiration approaches over the next two weeks.

The April 300 call has a roughly 4,700-contract lead over the put, mirroring a call-skewed trend seen at the major options exchanges. Drilling down on the past two weeks' worth of options activity shows speculative players at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open more calls than puts, based on Netflix's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.71, in the 93rd percentile of its annual range.

And amid recent tech sector headwinds, NFLX call options are pricing in remarkably low volatility expectations compared to their put counterparts. The stock's 30-day implied volatility skew of 10.2% ranks in the 89th annual percentile.

Published on Apr 10, 2018 at 2:43 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Analyst Update

The major U.S. benchmarks are joining in the global stock rally, as a speech from Chinese President Xi Jinping eased trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. Among specific stocks shooting higher today are data storage specialist Seagate Technology PLC (NASDAQ:STX), cloud firm Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO), and online retail platform Etsy Inc (NASDAQ:ETSY) -- each of which received fresh "buy" ratings from the brokerage bunch.

Morgan Stanley Sees 20% Upside for STX Stock

Seagate Technology stock topped out at a three-year high of $61.31 earlier, and was last seen trading up 6.4% at $59.92. The tech shares are reacting to a bull note at Morgan Stanley, which upgraded STX to "overweight" from "equal weight," and boosted its price target by $21 from $72 -- representing expected upside of 20% to the stock's current perch.

Longer term, STX stock has doubled since its late-August lows near $30.60. And a recent pullback was quickly contained in the $56 region -- home to the equity's January highs, as well as its rising 40-day moving average.

Higher highs could be ahead, too, should short sellers continue to cover. Short interest turned lower in 2018, down 35% year-to-date, yet more than 10% of the stock's float remains dedicated to these bearish bets, or 6.2 times STX's average daily trading volume.

Twilio Stock Bounces from Familiar Support

Dougherty initiated coverage on Twilio with a "buy" rating and a $45 price target -- a level the cloud stock has not toppled since October 2016. The upbeat analyst attention has the equity trading 5.1% higher at $38.75.

Looking closer at the charts, TWLO shares pulled back after topping out at a 17-month high of $42.50 on March 27. However, a floor quickly emerged in the $37 region, near the equity's November 2016 closing high, as well as its 40-day moving average, which has served as support and resistance over the past year.

As such, part of today's upside could be a result of short sellers cashing in some winning bets. Despite falling more than 20% in the two most recent reporting periods, there are still 9.9 million TWLO shares sold short -- 14.9% of the stock's float, or 3.3 times the average one-day trading volume.

Etsy Stock Seems Overdue for Upgrades

ETSY stock has shot up 8.2% to trade at $29.85, and earlier hit a four-year high of $29.88, after Loop Capital started covering with a "buy" rating and $32 price target -- double the retailer's initial public offering (IPO) back in April 2015. The brokerage firm waxed optimistic on the freshman management team, and said it expects the equity's 2018 "momentum to continue."

Specifically, the shares have added 44.5% so far this year. Nevertheless, the majority of analysts that currently follow the retailer maintain a "hold" or "strong sell" rating, and the average 12-month price target of $26.70 represents a discount to ETSY's stock price. Should ETSY continue to outperform, additional bullish brokerage notes could create even bigger tailwinds.

Published on Apr 11, 2018 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Shares of VirnetX Holding Corporation (NYSEAMERICAN:VHC) have jumped 17.3% to trade at $4.75, after the security technology firm was awarded $502.6 million in damages after a federal jury in Texas found Apple (AAPL) guilty of patent infringement. Today's pop has VHC stock trading at its highest level since mid-November, and breaking free from its 200-day trendline -- a former layer of support that had served as a stiff layer of resistance over the past five months.

vhc stock daily chart april 11

Options traders have been eyeing this technical ceiling in recent weeks. Over the past 10 days, the stock's April 4 and 5 calls saw the biggest increases in open interest, and data from the major options exchanges confirms the lower-strike calls were bought, while the higher-strike ones were sold. This suggests the front-month options were being used to initiate long call spreads.

Outside of the options arena, sentiment toward the tech stock is distinctly bearish. More than 12.3 million VHC shares are sold short, representing 24.6% of the security's available float. What's more, it would take shorts nearly 50 sessions to cover these bets, at the average pace of trading -- though this number is likely lower amid today's high-volume trading, with some of these traders helping to fuel this morning's fire.

Published on Apr 11, 2018 at 10:05 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Two biotech stocks are making big moves higher this morning, defying the broad-market headwinds related to geopolitical tensions in Syria. Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:INO) scored a critical partnership, while CymaBay Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:CBAY) reported upbeat data on its liver disease drug. 

INO Stock Could Benefit From Short Squeeze

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) will award Inovio Pharmaceuticals up to $56 million to advance its DNA vaccines for Lassa fever and MERS. As a result, INO stock is up 3.9% to trade at $4.94, and has rallied 30% from its four-year low of $3.76 on Feb. 9.  However, the shares are still staring up at their 160-day and 200-day moving averages, which have rejected rebound attempts since a bear gap in July 2017.  

A short squeeze is helping fuel the drug stock's rally. Short interest fell by 3.3% during the last reporting period, but the 10.53 million shares sold short still represents more than 12% of INO's total available float. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take over a week for the shorts to cover their bearish bets.

CBAY Stock Eyes Best Day Since July

CymaBay Therapeutics stock is up 15.8% to trade at $13.98, on track for its best day since July 2017, after the drugmaker reported a positive mid-stage study update on its liver disease drug, seladelpar. As such, Leerink upped its price target on the equity to $20 from $16 -- representing a premium of 43% to CBAY's current price.

The drug stock touched a record high of $15.59 on March 5, but subsequently pulled back to its 100-day moving average. Today, though, CBAY is set to top its 10- and 20-day trendlines for the first time in more than a month, and sports a year-over-year gain of 233%.

Amid the stock's recent dip, short sellers have piled on. Short interest increased by 11% during the past two reporting periods, to 2.5 million shares. This represents a healthy 8% of CBAY's total available float.
Published on Apr 11, 2018 at 10:25 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Cowen and Company cut its price target on General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) to $12 from $15, and said it expects the industrial manufacturer to report a first-quarter earnings miss next Thursday morning, and that its upcoming financial restatements for 2016 and 2017 will pressure the "show me" stock. What's more, the brokerage firm said GE's dividend is at risk unless cash flow improves. After falling nearly 1.5% out of the gate, the equity was last seen fractionally lower at $13.05.

More broadly, it's been a steady path lower for the Dow stock, which currently sits 57% below its its annual high of $30.54 from last April 20. Ushering the shares lower have been double-barreled resistance from their 40- and 60-day moving averages. The stock hasn't closed above this pair of trendlines since mid-January.

Options traders have ramping up their bullish exposure in recent weeks on GE. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows General Electric stock with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.66, ranking in the 77th percentile of its annual range. This suggests that calls have been purchased over puts at a faster-than-usual clip during the past two weeks.

The Dow name also sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.61, which ranks in the low 15th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that near-term traders have rarely shown a greater preference for calls over puts in the last year, with peak front-month open interest of 126,198 contracts currently docked at the April 15 strike.

Published on Apr 11, 2018 at 3:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The Dow is down triple digits, pressured by large losses from blue chips Boeing (BA) and DowDuPont (DWDP). Among other names making notable moves are FAANG stock Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), drone maker AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV), and touch pad specialist Synaptics, Incorporated (NASDAQ:SYNA). Here's a quick look at what's moving shares of NFLX, AVAV, and SYNA.

Bull Notes Continue to Pour in Ahead of Netflix Earnings

Netflix stock is up 3.3% to trade at $307.81, after the streaming giant received more bullish brokerage attention. While Monness Crespi Hardt transferred coverage with a "buy" rating and $350 target, Cowen and Company raised its NFLX price target to $325 from $275, while Goldman Sachs boosted its target to $360 from $315. The latter not only sits well above the equity's March 12 record high of $333.98, but represents expected upside of 17% to current trading levels -- with the brokerage firm saying Netflix will likely report stronger-than-expected first-quarter results after the market closes next Monday, April 16.

NFLX shares are now on track to log their sixth win in seven sessions, bringing their year-to-date lead north of 60%. Nevertheless, 14 of 34 analysts still maintain a "hold" or "sell" rating on Netflix, and the average 12-month price target of $293.36 stands at a discount to the stock's current perch. A continued round of upbeat analyst attention or a solid earnings showing could draw even more buyers to the table.

AeroVironment Stock Heads Toward Best Day Since December

AeroVironment stock has shot 16.6% higher to trade at $54.08, boosted by an upgrade to "buy" from "hold" at Stifel. The brokerage firm also raised its price target to $65 -- a 20% premium to current trading levels, and the highest on Wall Street -- waxing optimistic on opportunity for revenue growth in the company's unmanned aerial systems division.

AVAV stock is on track for its highest close since Jan. 2 -- and its biggest one-day gain since December -- and short sellers are likely getting spooked. Short interest on AVAV rose 34.3% in the two most recent reporting periods, to 2.08 million shares. Not only does this account for a healthy 10% of the equity's available float, but also 5.8 times the average daily pace of trading.

Mizuho Upgrades Synaptics Stock to "Buy"

Mizuho upgraded Synaptics stock to "buy" from "neutral," and boosted its price target to $55 from $42. The analyst in coverage thinks the Apple supplier can benefit from the increased exposure to a liquid-crystal display (LCD) iPhone market. In reaction, SYNA shares are up 9.3% to trade at $48.10, and are now boasting a 20.4% year-to-date gain.

Short covering could also be fueling today's upside. Nearly 7.7 million SYNA shares are sold short, accounting for 22.8% of the stock's available float -- or 17.7 times the stock's average daily pace of trading.

Published on Apr 12, 2018 at 9:47 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Upgrades
  • Analyst Update

Shares of stem cell specialist Bellicum Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:BLCM) are near the top of Nasdaq, surging in early trading after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) lifted its clinical hold on the company's main cancer therapy, BPX-501. BLCM has since received one upgrade and no fewer than three price-target hikes. Most notably, Wells Fargo upgraded the stock to "outperform" from "market perform" and raised its price target to $23 from $6.

BLCM was up 14% at $7.81 at last check, gapping above its 80-day moving average, which had acted as resistance since October. Longer term, however, Bellicum shares have been trending lower, shedding 47% over the past 12 months, and touching a fresh record low of $5.02 on Jan. 31. Still, five of six covering brokerage firms say the shares are a "buy" or "strong buy."

Short interest fell by 15% during the last two reporting periods, but the 4.5 million shares sold short still represents almost 16% of BLCM's total available float. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take almost eight days for the shorts to cover their bearish bets.

It's getting expensive to buy premium on Bellicum stock, however. Its 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 116.9% ranks in the 98th annual percentile, and its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 122% sits above 86% of all similar readings taken in the last 12 months. These two indicators suggest elevated volatility expectations are being priced into short-term options.

Published on Apr 12, 2018 at 9:58 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) stock is up 2.7% to trade at $52.90, after the airline company reported first-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations. It was also Delta's third straight quarter with higher average fares and passenger traffic, with Delta President Glen Hauenstein touting the firm's "best revenue momentum since 2014."

Delta stock is currently on track to snap a four-day skid. The equity has struggled since touching a record high of $60.79 on Jan. 16, shedding 13% in the subsequent weeks, but found support atop its 320-day moving average. The news today has the shares trading back above their 200-day moving average, too. However, DAL is still lower so far in the historically tough second quarter

Analysts have remained overwhelmingly bullish on the airliner, even amid the stock's recent struggles. All 13 of the brokerages covering DAL rate it a "buy" or "strong buy." There aren't many short sellers to be found, either. Short interest fell in the most recent reporting period, and only represents 2.8% of the stock's total available float. 

In the options pits, calls have continued to dominate. DAL sports a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.96 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Not only does this indicate calls have nearly tripled puts in the past 10 weeks, but this reading ranks in the high 87th annual percentile, meaning call buying has been unusually popular in recent weeks, relative to put buying.

Published on Apr 12, 2018 at 10:04 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY) have plunged 16% to trade at $18.05 -- hitting a nine-year low of $17.85 out of the gate -- after the homegoods retailer offered up a weak full-quarter profit forecast. After reporting fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings beat of $1.48 per share on inline revenue of $3.7 billion, BBBY said it expects 2018 earnings to arrive in the low-to-mid $2 range, versus the consensus estimate for adjusted per-share profit of $2.76.

Analysts were quick to chime in on the retail stock after earnings, too. No fewer than eight brokerage firms cut their BBBY price targets, with Citigroup and KeyBanc setting the lowest bar at $16 -- representing additional downside of nearly 12% to the stock's current price, and a level not breached since June 2000.

Nevertheless, the stock has been trending lower for the past three years, down nearly 77% from its January 2015 highs just below $80 amid steady pressure from its 10-month moving average. More recently, BBBY's 120-day trendline has contained all rally attempts since last December.

Bearish options traders are certainly profiting from Bed Bath & Beyond's negative earnings reaction. Looking at the weekly 4/13 21-strike put -- home to peak open interest in that short-term series -- which saw significant buy-to-open activity on March 29 and April 11. The closing prices for the put were $1.19 and $0.96, respectively, and at last check, the bid price for the weekly put was $3.30.

Published on Apr 12, 2018 at 10:19 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Puma Biotechnology Inc (NASDAQ:PBYI) exploded up the charts in 2017, more than tripling in value and peaking at $136.90 in early November. Since then, however, PBYI stock has suffered two bear gaps, the most recent of which from January came as a result of an unfavorable regulatory decision out of Europe.

The shares are under pressure again today after Barclays downgraded its opinion to "equal weight" from "overweight." The brokerage firm believes the main value drivers for the equity are already priced in, and it lowered its price target to $70 from $90 -- the lowest target on Wall Street, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon.

What makes this bear note even more notable is that fact that most covering analysts are extremely bullish. Coming into today, there were six brokerage firms with coverage on Puma Biotechnology, and five of them had "strong buy" ratings in place. Moreover, the average 12-month price target is $96, which is a 51.3% premium to PBYI's current perch.

At last check, the shares were trading down 3.7% at $63.68. They've been hampered by resistance from the 50-day moving average ever since the first bear gap back in November, but the $60 mark has seemingly stepped up as support since the January gap. The security bottomed at $60.10 earlier today.

As for options activity, volume has been light on an absolute basis, but recent data shows a strong tilt toward long calls. Specifically, PBYI has a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 8.81 across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). And even with the stock sharply lower, many are speculating on a rebound, with buy-to-open activity already spotted today at the June 90 call.

 

Published on Apr 12, 2018 at 12:56 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

Earnings season ramps up next week, with several blue-chip names ready to step up to the plate. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH), and General Electric (GE) are some notable Dow companies that will report next week, along with bank names Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC). Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) will be the first FAANG member to report as well. A host of Fed speakers are also sprinkled into the week, including John Williams, who will replace William Dudley later this year as the next New York Fed President.

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

On Monday, April 16, retail sales, business inventories, Treasury International Capital data, and the Empire State manufacturing survey will kick off the week. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will also speak in the afternoon. Bank of America (BAC), Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and J.B. Hunt (JBHT) will report earnings.

Housing starts and industrial production data will be released on Tuesday, April 17. Future New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak, while Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Governor Randal Quarles will give his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Goldman Sachs (GS), IBM (IBM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH), Comerica (CMA), CSX Corp (CSX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Lam Research (LRCX), Progressive (PGR), and United Continental (UAL) will step into the earnings confessional.

Wednesday, April 18, brings the weekly crude inventories update and the Fed's Beige Book. Current New York Fed President William Dudley will speak. American Express (AXP), Abbot Laboratories (ABT), Alcoa (AA), Mattel (MAT), Morgan Stanley (MS), Pier 1 Imports (PIR), Skechers (SKX), Steel Dynamics (STLD), United Rentals (URI), and U.S. Bancorp (USB) will unveil earnings.

Weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook, the Fed's balance sheet, and the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators are due out on Thursday, April 19. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak in the evening. BB&T Corp (BBT), Blackstone Group (BX), E*TRADE Financial (ETFC), KeyCorp (KEY), Nucor (NUE), Philip Morris International (PM), and The Tile Shop (TTS) will report earnings.

On Friday, April 20, Evans will speak again. Earnings from General Electric (GE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Gentex (GNTX), Honeywell (HON), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Schlumberger (SLB), TransUnion (TRU), and Waste Management (WM) will close out the week.

Published on Apr 12, 2018 at 2:59 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

It's another volatile day of trading on Wall Street, though today's price action is to the upside. Among individual stocks making notable moves are Bath & Body Works parent L Brands Inc (NYSE:LB), internet advertising firm QuinStreet Inc (NASDAQ:QNST), and billing and analytics software specialist Zuora (NYSE:ZUO). Here's a quick look at what's moving shares of LB, QNST, and ZUO.

L Brands Stock Spirals as PINK Sales Decline

L Brands stock has plunged 5.3% to trade at $35.91 -- its session lows -- after the retailer said declining growth for its Victoria's Secret PINK brand pressured March same-store sales. What's more, Loop Capital cut its LB price target to $40 from $42, saying "Victoria's Secret size, price range, and aesthetic are out of line with new consumer options," while Deutsche Bank lowered its target price to $53 from $60.

Since topping out at an annual high of $63.10 in late December, shares of LB are down 43%. The stock has now breached recent support near $37, and put buyers are cashing out. Nearly 11,000 LB puts have changed hands so far today -- roughly triple the expected intraday amount -- with sell-to-close activity detected at the weekly 4/13 and April 37.50 strikes.

QuinStreet Stock Bounces from Short Seller Sell-Off

QuinStreet shares plunged 17.7% yesterday to close below its 80-day moving average for the first time since August, after Kerrisdale Capital shorted the stock, saying the company is a "low-quality organization with a fundamentally flawed business model." Today, QNST stock has surged back above this trendline -- last seen up 17.2% to trade at $11.88 -- after the ad firm called Kerrisdale's claims "inaccurate," and released upbeat preliminary fiscal third-quarter revenue numbers.

Longer-term, the security is up more than 40% in 2018 -- and topped out at a six-year high of $14.65 on March 27. This notable milestone came amid heavy selling pressure, too, with short interest up 318% in the two most recent reporting periods to 2.82 million shares, the most since late 2012.

Zuora Stock Soars in Public Trading Debut

Last night, Zuora priced its initial public offering (IPO) at $14 per share -- above previous expectations for range of $11 to $13 per share -- which valued the cloud company at roughly $1.4 billion. The shares opened today at $20, rising as high as $21.60, and falling as low as $19.12. At last check, ZUO stock was up 54% at $21.56.

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