Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Oct 20, 2014 at 1:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is tech titan Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), which will unveil its highly anticipated quarterly earnings report after the close.

Most Active Options Table

Apple Inc. is 1.7% higher at $99.35, as traders react to the launch of Apple Pay and buy in ahead of earnings. Over the past eight quarters, AAPL has moved an average of 5% in the session subsequent to reporting, mostly to the downside. In fact, the equity has reacted negatively in five of the past eight quarters, resulting in an average one-day post-earnings loss of 1%. Nevertheless, option traders today are scooping up AAPL calls at a faster-than-usual clip.

So far, roughly 520,000 AAPL calls have changed hands -- more than twice the number of puts traded, and representing a 37% mark-up to the stock's average intraday call volume. In fact, the 10 most active strikes are calls expiring on or before Friday, Nov. 21.

Digging deeper, it appears some "vanilla" bulls are buying to open the weekly 10/24 103- and 104-strike calls, where implied volatility has popped by double-digit percentage points, and most of the calls have crossed on the ask side.

Digging deeper, however, it looks like one trader is taking a cautiously optimistic stance ahead of earnings, initiating a bull call spread at the weekly 10/24 102 and 103 strikes. Specifically, the speculator bought to open 1,861 102-strike calls for $0.77 apiece, then hedged her bets by simultaneously selling to open an equal amount of 103-strike calls for $0.53 each -- data confirmed by the International Securities Exchange (ISE) -- resulting in a net debit of $0.24 per pair of contracts.

The trader will make money if AAPL surpasses $102.24 (bought strike plus net debit) by Friday's close, when the options expire. However, her reward maxes out at $0.76 (difference between strikes, minus net debit) no matter how far AAPL should climb north of $103 this week.

Had the speculator simply bought the 102-strike calls, breakeven would be higher at $102.77 (strike plus premium paid), and gains would be theoretically unlimited to the upside. However, the trader would be risking the full $0.77 paid for the calls, as opposed to the maximum risk of $0.24 (the net debit) on the spread.

On the charts, AAPL has struggled to conquer the $102-$103 region, which emerged as a speed bump in mid-to-late August. Furthermore, the stock is now staring up at its formerly supportive 10-week moving average (located at $100.33), which could switch roles to act as resistance.

Despite the stock's technical turmoil, or its fundamental woes both in and out of the earnings spotlight, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) remains beloved by analysts. In fact, the security boasts 22 "strong buys" and five "buy" endorsements, compared to six lukewarm "holds" and not a single "sell." Plus, the consensus 12-month price target on the equity sits in uncharted territory at $112.64. Another negative earnings reaction could exacerbate recent selling pressure on the iParent.

Published on Oct 20, 2014 at 1:13 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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NCR Corporation (NYSE:NCR) has plunged 22% this afternoon to churn around $23.30 -- its biggest one-day drop on record -- after reducing its third-quarter earnings guidance and full-year outlook. In fact, the shares earlier hit a nearly two-year low of $22.83, and found a place on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list. Elsewhere, options are trading at triple the anticipated intraday rate, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has shot 7.3% higher to 46.2%, signaling elevated demand for short-term strikes.

Most active so far is NCR's January 2015 25-strike call, where 1,432 contracts have been exchanged. The majority have crossed at the ask price, and open interest is home to fewer than 100 contracts, suggesting the initiation of long call positions. In short, these traders expect NCR to rebound above the quarter-century mark by January 2015 options expiration.

As alluded to, NCR Corporation (NYSE:NCR) released preliminary third-quarter numbers earlier, and will issue its official results after the close next Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere, in the wake of today's price action, Oppenheimer slammed the shares with a $10 price-target cut to $30, but nonetheless retained its "outperform" rating.

Published on Oct 20, 2014 at 12:37 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the S&P 500 Index (SPX) components that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), as option traders roll the dice on an end-of-week retreat.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

Facebook Inc is trading 1.1% higher today to linger near $76.78, following reports King Digital Entertainment PLC (NYSE:KING) is planning to launch its new "Candy Crush" game on FB and smartphones in coming weeks. Option traders aren't buying today's positive price action, though, and are scooping up puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

Drilling down, FB's weekly 10/24 75-strike put has garnered the most attention, with 18,265 contracts on the tape at last check. The majority of these puts have traded at the ask price, implied volatility has jumped 9.9 percentage points, and fewer than 3,400 contracts are currently in residence here. Summing it all up, it appears new positions are being purchased.

By initiating the long puts, traders are expecting FB to breach the $75 mark by week's end -- when the weekly series expires. The options market isn't too confident the put will be in the money at Friday's close, as delta on the option is docked at negative 0.30.

Looking ahead, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is slated to take its turn in the earnings confessional after the close next Tuesday, Oct. 28. While this scheduled event resides outside of the lifetime of the aforementioned puts, today's bearish bias echoes the withstanding trend witnessed in FB's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.74 ranks higher than all other readings taken in the past year. This, despite the fact that FB has averaged a single-session post-earnings gain of 5.2% over the past four quarters.

Published on Oct 20, 2014 at 10:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) has tacked on 3.5% to trade at $9.82, amid rumors of a potential Lenovo buyout. These developments have activity running hot in the stock's options pits -- especially on the call side, where intraday volume more than doubles what's expected at this point in the session.

Short-term contracts are in demand, as conveyed by BBRY's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility, which is 7.7% up at 54.2%. Accordingly, the equity's November 11 call is being traded most heavily, with 5,823 contracts on the tape so far. Volume outstrips open interest, and 79% of the contracts have crossed on the ask side, collectively hinting at newly bought bullish bets.

Long story short, the traders anticipate BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) will topple $11 by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when the newly front-month options expire. Looking back, the shares were north of this level as recently as Sept. 22. From a longer-term perspective, BBRY has tacked on about 32% in 2014, easily outperforming the broader market.

Published on Oct 20, 2014 at 9:45 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) is up 1.3% out of the gate -- thanks to a "buy" initiation and a whopping $110 price target at Pivotal Research -- but it was a different story on Friday, when the shares dropped 3.1% to close at $45.43. Not surprisingly, options activity tilted in a bearish direction, with puts trading at a 60% mark-up to the expected intraday rate. While short-term strikes were in demand -- per the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility, which hit an annual high on Friday and ended 5.5% higher at 108.4% -- the most active strike was of the longer-term variety.

Diving right in, the January 2015 35-strike put was HLF's most popular option on Friday, with roughly 5,200 contracts on the tape. Almost all of them crossed at the ask price, and open interest added 4,710 positions over the weekend, collectively suggesting the purchase of fresh bearish bets. This theory is corroborated by data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Trade-Alert.

By buying the puts to open, Friday's speculators expect shares of Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) to drop below $35 by January 2015 options expiration. Looking back, however, the stock hasn't breached this level since April 2013. As such, delta on the put is a mere 0.23, suggesting a less than 1-in-4 chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

Published on Oct 17, 2014 at 2:34 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Cowen weighed in on a number of oil-and-gas issues today following Baker Hughes Incorporated's (NYSE:BHI) dismal earnings report, and for Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), that meant a downgrade to "market perform" from "outperform" and price-target cut to $30 from $39. Against this backdrop, shares of RIG have plunged 5.9% to $28.37. Meanwhile, in the options pits, overall volume is running at a slightly accelerated clip, and a number of speculators are setting a ceiling for the shares through month's end.

Specifically, the stock's most active call is the weekly 10/31 30 strike, where 2,205 contracts have changed hands -- mostly at the bid price, hinting at seller-driven activity. Plus, volume outstrips open interest, pointing to the initiation of new short positions. By writing the calls to open, traders expect RIG to stay south of $30 through the close on Friday, Oct. 31 -- when the weekly series expires. Amid today's plunge, delta on the call has dropped to 0.34 from 0.54 at last night's close, suggesting a decreased probability the option will expire in the money.

Today's steep sell-off only highlights RIG's withstanding technical troubles, with the shares down more than 42% year-to-date. In spite of this, there are still pockets of optimism found around the Street. In fact, the consensus 12-month price target of $32.19 stands at a 13.5% premium to the equity's current perch. Should Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG) continue in its downward trajectory, another round of price-target cuts could pressure the shares lower.

Published on Oct 17, 2014 at 1:28 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is automaker Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), as one pre-earnings options trader bucks the withstanding bearish trend.

Most Active Options Table

Ford Motor Company has sold off sharply since hitting a three-year high of $18.12 in late July, with the shares off nearly 22% to trade at $14.17. The stock has been making an attempt at technical redemption in recent sessions, and today, F is up 1.4% following an encouraging report on European auto sales. Amid this bounce, calls are trading at 1.4 times the average intraday pace, with one speculator in particular eyeing an extended rebound over the next two weeks -- a time frame that captures F's next quarterly earnings report.

Specifically, F's weekly 10/31 14.50-strike call has seen the most action today, with 18,396 contracts on the tape. The majority of this activity occurred when a massive multi-exchange sweep of 17,310 contracts was bought to open for $0.21 apiece, resulting in an initial cash outlay of $363,510 (number of contracts * premium paid * 100 shares per contract).

This is also the most the trader has to lose, if F remains south of $14.50 through the close on Friday, Oct. 31 -- when the weekly series expires. Gains, meanwhile, are theoretically unlimited, should the stock rally past breakeven at $14.71 (strike plus premium paid) over the next two weeks.

As touched upon, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) will take its turn in the earnings confessional ahead of the open next Friday, Oct. 24. Events such as these can often spark accelerated price action in a stock, and today's option bull appears to be hoping for a post-earnings move to the upside. The withstanding trend in F's options pits has tended toward the skeptical side, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.36 ranks in the bearishly skewed 86th percentile of its annual range.

Published on Oct 17, 2014 at 10:34 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

It's been a strong day on the corporate earnings front, and financial firm Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is no exception. At last check, the stock was up 3.2% at $33.56, after posting an 87% rise in third-quarter profit -- easily beating analysts' consensus bottom-line estimate. However, not everyone is convinced the security can sustain this post-earnings momentum. In fact, put volume is running at a 26% mark-up to the average intraday pace this morning, with a number of speculators betting on a quick retreat for the shares.

Drilling down, the weekly 10/24 33-strike put has seen the most action in MS' options pits, with 1,472 contracts on the tape. More than three-quarters of these contracts have traded at the ask price, and volume outstrips open interest, pointing to the purchase of new positions. Amid today's rally, delta on the put has dropped to negative 0.36 from negative 0.58 at last night's close, suggesting a decreased probability the option will be in the money at next Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

From a wider sentiment perspective, today's trend toward puts only highlights the withstanding trend witnessed in MS' options arena. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, Morgan Stanley's (NYSE:MS) 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.68 ranks in the bearishly skewed 82nd annual percentile.

Published on Oct 17, 2014 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Option players were active on Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE:HON) ahead of the industrial giant's quarterly earnings report, which was released bright and early this morning. Overall volume traded at two times the daily average, but calls emerged as the options of choice. By the numbers, 6,290 calls changed hands, versus 5,010 puts. Eleventh-hour bulls rolled the dice on some earnings-related upside, and by the looks of it, their bets are paying off.

Specifically, the most active HON strike on Thursday was the October 87.50 call, where 2,533 contracts crossed the tape. The majority of these went off at the ask price, implied volatility surged 8.6 percentage points, and open interest rose overnight -- all signs of buy-to-open activity. Traders purchased these calls at a volume-weighted average price of $0.67, and thanks to today's post-earnings pop, the options are currently priced at $2.11, resulting in a profit of 215%.

Heading into today's session, HON was down 5.5% on the year, due mostly in part to the security's 11% decline since hitting its most recent high of $96.93 on Sept. 19. However, on the heels of Honeywell International Inc.'s (NYSE:HON) better-than-expected third-quarter results and an upwardly revised full-year forecast, the stock has soared 3.2% to trade at $89.14.

Published on Oct 17, 2014 at 7:24 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Among the stock attracting attention from options traders lately are integrated circuit specialist Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRUS), rare earths producer Molycorp Inc (NYSE:MCP), and telecommunications firm Alcatel Lucent SA (ADR) (NYSE:ALU). Below, we'll break down how options buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on CRUS, MCP, and ALU.

  • Option traders have grown increasingly bullish on CRUS ahead of its turn in the earnings confessional the evening of Wednesday, Oct. 29. Specifically, the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) has risen to 10.51 from its Oct. 1 reading of 0.73, and is now ranked in the 88th annual percentile. Simply stated, calls have been bought to open over puts with more rapidity just 12% of the time within the past year. With CRUS boasting a short interest-to-float ratio of 11.3%, though, a portion of this recent call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- could be at the hands of shorts hedging against a post-earnings bounce. Since hitting its most recent high of $24.74 on Sept. 2, the stock has surrendered 19% to trade at $20.03. Regardless of the reason, premium on Cirrus Logic, Inc.'s short-term options is relatively expensive at the moment, as evidenced by the stock's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) of 56.3%, which ranks higher than 87% of similar readings taken in the past year.

  • Put players have been active on MCP of late. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, for example, the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.86 ranks just 7 percentage points from an annual bearish peak. This shouldn't be too surprising, though, considering the security has shed 73.3% year-to-date, and closed Thursday at $1.50. The cost to purchase Molycorp Inc's short-term options is on the high end -- which is good news for call sellers -- per the equity's 30-day ATM IV of 132.4%, which arrives above 98% of comparable readings taken in the past year. This could be due to the company's upcoming earnings report, tentatively slated for release between Wednesday, Nov. 5 and Monday, Nov. 10.

  • ALU also has its quarterly earnings report on the horizon, due out the morning of Thursday, Oct. 30. Option traders at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX have been scooping up puts at an accelerated clip in the weeks leading up to the scheduled event. In fact, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.19 ranks in the 86th percentile of its annual range. Option traders have been willing to pay a bit more for their pre-earnings bets -- ALU's 30-day ATM IV of 59% is sitting higher than 87% of all other readings taken over the past 12 months. On the charts, Alcatel Lucent SA (ADR) (NYSE:ALU) tagged a fresh annual low of $2.28 yesterday, before settling the session at $2.36. Year-to-date, the shares are down 46.4%.
Published on Oct 16, 2014 at 2:59 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is having a terrible day, with the shares off 19.8% to $359.79, after the company revealed uninspiring new subscriber data in last night's third-quarter earnings results. The news followed reports of increased competition on the streaming front, and was met with a wave of bearish brokerage notes. Not everyone is ruing today's bearish gap, though. In fact, yesterday's put buyers are profiting big time from the day's steep sell-off.

As my colleague Andrea Kramer noted yesterday, a number of pre-earnings option bears targeted the stock's October 380 puts on Wednesday, which were purchased for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.96. Thanks to today's earnings-induced plunge, the puts are now in the money, and are currently trading at $18.85. Doing the math, that's a profit of 1,864%!

Elsewhere on the Street, short sellers are most likely cheering today's turn of events, considering more than 10% of the stock's float is sold short. For the sake of comparison, though, let's say one of these short sellers borrowed one share of NFLX yesterday when the equity was trading at $450. Hypothetically speaking, say this short bought back her borrowed share today when Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) was at its intraday low of $331, resulting in a much slimmer 26.4% return on her original investment .

Published on Oct 16, 2014 at 2:08 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the S&P 500 Index (SPX) components that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), which has seen an uptick in call trading.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

Twitter Inc calls are being exchanged at a 14% mark-up to the typical intraday rate, and short-term contracts are in focus, as the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has popped 6.3% to 77.2%. While the most active option is of the longer-term variety -- specifically, the January 2016 50-strike call, which is largely being sold to open -- one weekly call is seeing significant activity.

In particular, TWTR's weekly 10/24 50-strike call has attracted a fair share of attention, with roughly 3,300 contracts on the tape. Nearly half have crossed at the ask price, and volume has surpassed open interest, hinting at newly bought bullish bets. In short, these call buyers anticipate TWTR will topple the round-number half-century mark by next Friday's closing bell, when the weekly series expires.

On the charts, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) has given back about 1.7% today to trade at $49.14. However, the shares appear to have found a foothold atop the $48 level, which corresponds with their 60-day moving average. What's more, TWTR has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by an astounding 41.3 percentage points during the past three months.

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