Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 20, 2015 at 3:28 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Option bulls have kept the faith in Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA), despite its year-to-date deficit to 9%. The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 18.59, indicating nearly 19 calls have been bought to open for every put in recent weeks. What's more, the ratio ranks higher than four-fifths of comparable readings taken in the last year.

Things are markedly different today, though, with puts outstripping calls by a healthy margin. Most active is the May 2.50 put, where new in-the-money positions are seemingly being purchased. In other words, the buyers are banking on ZNGA to continue trending lower through the close on Friday, May 15, when the options expire.

This negativity is echoed among short sellers. More than one-tenth of ZNGA's float is sold short, which would take over a week to buy back, at average daily trading volumes. In fact, some of the recent call buying -- especially at out-of-the-money strikes -- could be the work of short sellers hedging.

As alluded to, Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) has struggled on the charts in 2015, exacerbated recently by a management shake-up. Today, the shares are off 1% at $2.42.

Published on Apr 20, 2015 at 3:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

With a 2% lead to trade $63.56, AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) is trading at its highest level since late January. Still, options traders continue to target puts ahead of the company's earnings report, scheduled for release on Thursday morning. Specifically, the contracts are being exchanged at five times the expected intraday pace. Data is giving the impression of buy-to-open activity at the in-the-money May 64 put, meaning traders expect the shares to extend their losses below $64 through the close on Friday, May 15, when front-month options expire.

It's nothing new to see ABBV's speculators making bearish bets. The stock's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.52 outranks 73% of all other readings from the past 12 months. Said simply, put buying as been more popular than usual lately, relative to call buying.

Elsewhere on the Street, analysts have a different opinion on the pharmaceutical stock, which has fallen 2.9% in 2015. Specifically, 80% of covering brokerage firms deem AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) a "strong buy."

Published on Apr 20, 2015 at 2:48 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is down 0.3% at $569.98 -- but earlier hit an all-time high of $576.13 -- as the stock takes a breather after last week's rally. On the charts, Netflix, Inc. has been a technical standout, with the shares advancing over 66.8% year-to-date, and 35.5% so far in April. However, puts are changing hands at 1.5 times their average intraday pace today, as speculators gamble on a short-term cool-down for NFLX.

The day's most active put contract is the weekly 4/24 560-strike put, where apparent buy-to-open activity has been detected. By purchasing this put at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $4.60, traders predict the shares will fall beneath $555.40 (strike minus VWAP) by the close this Friday, when the contract expires. It is worth noting that the shares of NFLX were trading well below this level prior to last week's post-earnings bull gap.

In light of NFLX's recent uptrend, short sellers have been hitting the bricks on the equity. Drilling down, short interest decreased by 7.3% over the last reporting period, but still comprises 8.4% of NFLX's available float. A continued exit of short sellers from their positions could create tailwinds for the stock.

Meanwhile, the brokerage bunch is divided on Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), as 40% of covering analysts rate the security a "hold" or worse. Additionally, NFLX's average 12-month price target of $552.92 sits below current trading levels, leaving the door wide open for a round of analyst upgrades and/or price-target hikes to give the shares yet another boost.

Daily Chart of NFLX Since October 2014
Published on Apr 20, 2015 at 2:38 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Celladon Corporation (NASDAQ:CLDN) is among a number of health care stocks getting whacked today -- down 4% at $15.86 ahead of crucial results from its Mydicar gene therapy trial, due out sometime this month. In the equity's options pits, puts are running at more than twice their usual intraday rate. Also, CLDN's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility earlier touched an annual high of 418.6%, hinting at heightened anxiety levels ahead of the aforementioned data.

The most active put this afternoon is the May 17.50 strike, where likely buy-to-open activity is transpiring. Based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $7.97, the buyers are aiming for CLDN to plummet below $9.53 (strike less VWAP) by May options expiration. This would put the stock in waters not charted since mid-October.

Today's penchant for put buying is par for the course. During the past 10 days across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), CLDN has racked up a put/call volume ratio of 3.43 -- with puts bought to open at more than three times the rate of calls.

Short sellers have been extremely active of late, too. During the two most recent reporting periods, short interest on CLDN nearly tripled, and now makes up 23% of its total float -- though it would take less than two days to cover these positions, at average daily trading levels.

On the charts, Celladon Corporation's (NASDAQ:CLDN) intraday losses are pretty typical. Since notching a record high of $28.25 on March 20, the stock has plunged an astounding 44%, and underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by about 36 percentage points.

Published on Apr 21, 2015 at 11:34 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity

NQ Mobile Inc (ADR) (NYSE:NQ) has spent almost the past two weeks trading north of the $4 mark, suggesting this former layer of resistance may now be switching to a more supportive role. In today's trading, one optimistic options trader is betting on a bigger breakout over the next two weeks, and is taking aim at the $4.50 mark.

Specifically, 84% of NQ's total intraday volume occurred when a block of 1,999 weekly 5/8 4.50-strike calls changed hands earlier. It appears this lot of out-of-the-money calls was bought to open, with the goal being for the equity to rally north of $4.50 by next Friday's close, when the weekly series expires. Considering NQ hasn't seen the north side of $4.50 since early January, delta on the call is docked at 0.34, suggesting a roughly 1-in-3 chance of an in-the-money finish.

From a wider sentiment perspective, today's call-skewed session just echoes the withstanding trend. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), NQ's 20-day call/put volume ratio is docked at 12.12. Echoing this is the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.47, which ranks lower than 64% of all similar readings taken in the past year. In other words, short-term speculators are more call-heavy than usual. With 18.3% of the equity's float sold short, though, some of this could be a result of shorts hedging their bearish bets.

As noted, NQ was able to break above previous resistance earlier this month. In today's trading, the stock is flat at $4.14, following news of a management shake-up. Specifically, co-CEO Omar Khan will resign from his post on May 1. Going forward, NQ Mobile Inc (NYSE:NQ) will no longer use the co-CEO system.

Published on Apr 21, 2015 at 11:56 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Analysts are weighing in today on a number of software and cybersecurity firms, including Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:CHKP), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW), and Rambus Inc. (NASDAQ:RMBS). Here's a quick look at today's brokerage notes on CHKP, PANW, and RMBS.

  • The shares of CHKP are 0.2% higher at $86.05 -- and earlier touched a 14-year high of $88.18 -- after last night's earnings beat prompted a number of brokerage firms to hike their price targets on the equity. Drilling down, the loftiest increase came from Needham (to $100), while Citigroup and Credit Suisse elevated their price targets to $98 and $95, respectively. The hikes should come as no surprise, considering the shares of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. have advanced 9.5% year-to-date. Near-term speculators are more call-skewed than usual, based on CHKP's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.34, which is the lowest such reading from the past year. Said another way, short-term traders have never been this call-heavy on the equity over the past 12 months.
  • Sector-peer PANW it up 3.9% at $152.26 -- and earlier touched an all-time high of $153.10 -- after Imperial Capital resumed coverage of the stock with an "outperform" rating and a $170 price target. This good news is more of the same for Palo Alto Networks Inc, as the shares have more than doubled in value during the past year. Options traders are likely cheering today's rally, as PANW's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 1.93 stands in the 99th percentile of its annual range. Meanwhile, a majority of covering analysts are optimistic on PANW, with 82% doling out "buy" or "strong buy" ratings. What's more, there are no "sell" recommendations to be found.
  • RMBS posted a first-quarter earnings beat, sending the shares 12.5% higher to $14.36 and sparking a wave of upbeat analyst attention. Specifically, J.P. Morgan Securities increased its price target to $12.50, Jefferies raised its price target to $13, and Topeka Capital elevated its price target to $15 -- in three-year-high territory. Looking back, Rambus Inc. has been trending upwards, with the shares up 29.5% year-to-date. However, options traders have favored puts more than usual lately, as RMBS' SOIR of 0.44 is higher than 93% of all similar readings from the past year.
Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 2:44 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Seadrill Ltd (NYSE:SDRL) is following in the path of the broader equities market -- off 2% at $12.02 -- on news North Atlantic Drilling Ltd. (NYSE:NADL), of which SDRL owns a majority stake, has once again delayed a cooperation deal with Russia-based Rosneft. Today's sell-off hasn't fazed options traders, though, who are scooping up SDRL calls at 1.3 times the average intraday pace.

Most active by a mile is the equity's May 13 call, and signs suggest new positions are being purchased. By initiating the long calls, speculators expect SDRL to rally above $13 through the close on Friday, May 15 -- when the soon-to-be front-month options expire. Delta on the call is docked at 0.32, suggesting a less than 1-in-3 shot of an in-the-money finish.

Today's accelerated call activity marks a change of pace in SDRL's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.42 ranks in the 74th annual percentile.

What's more, SDRL's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.49 rests higher than 94% of all similar readings taken in the past 12 months. Simply stated, short-term speculators have been more put-heavy toward the stock just 6% of the time during the last year.

Looking at the charts, SDRL has been a long-term laggard, down roughly 64% year-over-year. However, the stock has been making some technical amends since bottoming at a six-year low of $8.58 in mid-March, and today's pullback seems to have found a foothold atop Seadrill Ltd's (NYSE:SDRL) year-to-date breakeven mark.

Daily Chart of SDRL Since April 2014 With Year-to-Date Breakeven
Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 2:44 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) puts are flying off the shelves today at quadruple projected intraday levels. The majority of the puts exchanged are the result of 7,350-contract block at the May 60 strike, which was sold to open according to Trade-Alert.

By writing the FSLR puts to open, the seller collected a total net credit of over $1.5 million -- $2.08 premium * 7,350 contracts * 100 shares per contract. This represents the trader's maximum potential profit, provided the shares remain above the strike through the close on Friday, May 15, when the soon-to-be front-month options expire. However, the seller faces considerable downside risk if FSLR breaches $60 during the option's lifetime.

Put selling has actually been quite popular in recent months at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). During the past 50 sessions, specifically, nearly 7,500 puts have been sold to open, versus fewer than 4,300 bought to open.

This confidence isn't shared by everyone. Over half of the analysts tracking FSLR rate it a tepid "hold," and the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $64.62 is just a chip-shot away from current trading levels. In other words, the stock could be primed to benefit from some positive brokerage attention.

This is long overdue, given First Solar, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FSLR) technical tenacity. While the shares are off 2.3% this afternoon at $61.47 amid a broad-market sell-off, they remain nearly 39% higher on a year-to-date basis, and have outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 46.7 percentage points over the last three months.

Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Options traders are targeting Baidu Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU) today, as stocks slide in the wake of China's new trading rules. At last check, BIDU options were changing hands at double the intraday rate, with calls the contracts of choice.

One of the day's most active contracts is BIDU's September 280 call, where it appears buy-to-open activity is taking place. By purchasing this call at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $1.27, speculators anticipate the shares to muscle their way north of $281.27 (strike plus VWAP) -- in uncharted territory -- by the close on Friday, Sept. 18, when the option expires.

Technically speaking, the shares of BIDU have marched steadily lower since hitting a Nov. 13 all-time high of $251.99, down 18.3% to linger near $205.98. Accordingly, sentiment in the options pits has been more bearish than normal, as BIDU's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.89 ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range. Furthermore, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.00 is higher than 80% of all equivalent readings taken over the past year, showing that near-term traders are more put-skewed than usual.

Looking elsewhere, Baidu Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU) has been held in high-esteem by the brokerage bunch. Specifically, 11 out of 12 covering analysts rate the stock a "strong buy." Also, BIDU's consensus 12-month price target of $250.65 represents a 21.7% premium to current trading levels.

Daily Chart of BIDU Since April 2014
Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 1:45 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Call volume has exploded in Johnson Controls Inc's (NYSE:JCI) options pits. The contracts are changing hands at a rate 32 times what's normally seen at this point in the day, with heavy activity at the July 55 call. In fact, over 15,000 contracts have crossed here, more than three times as many as the next closest option. It appears traders are buying to open these calls, expecting JCI to topple $55 -- which would mark a record peak -- by July expiration.

Taking a step back, call buyers have been rushing to JCI for the last two weeks. In fact, over that time span at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), roughly 44 calls have been bought to open for each put. The resulting call/put volume ratio of 44.07 is an annual bullish peak. Also coming in at an annual extreme is JCI's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.41, which hasn't been lower during the last 12 months. This implies speculators targeting options that expire in the next three months are more call-focused now than at any other point during the past year.

JCI SOIR

Options bulls may be expecting the equity's earnings report -- scheduled for release next Thursday morning -- to launch the shares out of the $48-$51 range, where they've been churning between for well over a month. Still, Johnson Controls Inc (NYSE:JCI) has managed a 4.7% lead in 2015 -- thanks in part to some recent M&A buzz -- and was last seen 0.7% higher at $50.60.

Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 1:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Even on a broadly bad day, cloud concern ServiceNow Inc (NYSE:NOW) is among the Big Board's biggest losers, down 14.5% at $70.85 -- and on pace to end south of its 120-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. After issuing dismal guidance, the stock was slapped with a pair of price-target cuts from Brean Capital (to $90) and Barclays (to $85) -- though Canaccord Genuity upped its price target to $90 -- and has been relegated to the short-sale restricted list. Nevertheless, short-term skeptics are turning to the options pits to place eleventh-hour bets on NOW.

Put volume is running at 26 times the average afternoon clip, and has roughly doubled call volume thus far. Buy-to-open activity has been detected at the April 70 and 75 puts -- the most popular options thus far -- as speculators gamble on more downside for NOW through tonight's close, when the options expire. While the 75-strike put is in the money, buyers of the 70-strike puts are hoping NOW breaches $70 within the next few hours; the security hit an intraday low of $70.38.

Heading into earnings, NOW was no stranger to pessimism. Short interest surged 34.6% during the past two reporting periods, and now represents nearly six sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at the stock's average pace of trading.

However, more downbeat analyst attention could be in store, should ServiceNow Inc (NYSE:NOW) extend today's bear gap. The average 12-month price target of $86.79 sits in uncharted territory for the stock, and 17 out of 18 analysts consider the equity worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement.

Published on Apr 17, 2015 at 11:27 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) is popping after a successful study of its lung cancer treatment, Opdivo. At last check, shares of the drugmaker were up 3.5% at $65.87, bringing their year-to-date advance north of 11%. Not surprisingly, bullish traders are rushing to the stock's options pits.

Digging deeper, intraday call volume on BMY is at eight times the norm. By the numbers, 23,000 calls are on the tape, versus fewer than 4,000 puts. Among the most popular strikes is the at-the-money April 66 call, where buy-to-open activity is detected. In short, these call buyers anticipate BMY will topple $66 by tonight's close, when the front-month options expire.

Broadly speaking, speculators have been picking up BMY calls at a breakneck pace. During the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has seen nearly 14 calls bought to open for every put. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 13.64 rests above all comparable readings taken in the previous year.

Echoing this, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.41, with call open interest more than doubling put open interest among short-term strikes. What's more, this SOIR ranks in the call-skewed 15th percentile of its annual range.

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