Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Apr 25, 2018 at 10:18 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shares of Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) are slightly higher this morning, after Stifel upgraded the FAANG stock to "buy" from "hold," and lifted its price target to $1,234 from $1,150. The covering analyst highlighted continued strength in search, YouTube, and advertising, while adding Google's products are more important to consumers than Facebook's (FB). Independent Research, meanwhile, moved its price target up to $1,160 from $1,130.

Of course, this comes just one day after the stock suffered a negative earnings reaction. The tech giant was trading up 0.2% at $1,024.42, at last check, putting its year-over-year gain at 15.3%. Alphabet is still staring up at its Jan. 29 record peak of $1,198, however, and during yesterday's trading it dropped back below the 200-day moving average.

Most analysts share Stifel's bullish outlook, though. Specifically, there are 30 brokerage firms covering the security, and 26 of them say it's a "buy" or "strong buy." The average 12-month price target, meanwhile, stands up at $1,267.62.

Digging deeper, options traders have been leaning bullish, too, with data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) showing the stock sporting a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.43, ranking in the 72nd percentile of its annual range. This suggests that calls have been purchased over puts at a faster-than-usual clip during the past 10 weeks.

Published on Apr 25, 2018 at 10:36 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Shares of Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) were up 5% earlier, after the social media firm recorded its second profitable quarter in the first three months of 2018 -- making it two in a row -- logging better-than-expected adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share on $655 million in revenue. Monthly active users also grew 6% year-over-year to 336 million, more than forecast. However, a U.S. monthly user growth miss and a warning of slow second-half revenue growth have TWTR stock down 4% at last check to trade at $29.24.

Today's intraday high of $32 coincides with the stock's 50-day moving average, which has kept a lid on the shares since a late-March bear gap. However, Twitter's 80-day moving average has emerged as a floor over this same time frame, and is located right at the stock's intraday low and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from late October to its nearly two-year high of $38.80.

Today's volatile trading has sparked a rush of activity in TWTR's options pits, with around 101,000 calls and 67,000 puts on the tape already. This is six times the number of Twitter options that are typically traded at this point in the session, with volume pacing in the 100th annual percentile.

Most active is the June 25 put, where around 16,000 contracts have traded so far. It looks like traders may be buying to close positions here amid a post-earnings volatility crush. Elsewhere, speculators are initiating new positions at the weekly 4/27 29-strike put and call, though it's not clear whether these positions are being bought or sold.

And while analysts have yet to make any move in regard to ratings adjustments for the stock, GBH Insights called the results a "breath of fresh air," and said changes to Facebook's (FB) newsfeed have been a short-term boon for Twitter. What's more, J.P. Morgan Securities said TWTR is a favorite small-cap stock, and waxed optimistic on impressive daily user growth. Pivotal Research, meanwhile, maintained its "sell" rating, highlighting liquidity concerns and possible government regulations as potential risks.

 

Published on Apr 25, 2018 at 3:25 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

It's been a roller-coaster ride for the broader U.S. stock market, as Wall Street weighs a fresh batch of corporate earnings and the 10-year Treasury yield holds near a four-year high. Among individual stocks, Snapchat parent Snap Inc (NYSE:SNAP), healthcare management name Magellan Health Inc (NASDAQ:MGLN), and drugmaker Dare Bioscience Inc (NASDAQ:DARE) are all seeing volatile trading. Here's a closer look at what's moving shares of SNAP, MGLN, and DARE.

Snap Stock Sinks on Snapchat Redesign Redesign

Snap stock is trading down 7.5% at $14.46, after the company said it is testing a redesign to its Snapchat redesign. Today's drop has SNAP stock on track to break its four-day win streak -- the longest since late January -- and trading back below its year-to-date breakeven mark.

Longer term, the shares have been trending lower since their mid-March highs north of $18.40, pressured by their descending 30-day moving average. Nevertheless, short-term puts are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations relative to their call counterparts ahead of the company's upcoming earnings report, scheduled for release after next Tuesday's close. SNAP's 30-day implied volatility skew of negative 2.8% ranks in the 4th annual percentile.

Magellan Health Stock Drops Ahead of Earnings

The state of Florida said it has awarded its Medicaid vendors contracts to WellCare (WCG) over Magellan Health, sending shares of the latter down 16.7% to trade at $92.50. MGLT stock is now on track for its worst day ever, after hitting a record high of $112.25 last Thursday.

MGLN shares could see even more volatility in tomorrow's trading, with the company slated to report first-quarter earnings ahead of the open. The stock has closed lower in the session after earnings in five of the past eight quarters, but jumped 17.8% following its November 2016 results. This time around, the options market is pricing in a 11.8% next-day swing in either direction.

Dare Bioscience is the Best Stock on the Nasdaq Today

Dare Bioscience said it's inked a deal with Juniper Pharmaceuticals (JNP) to license the former's intravaginal ring technology. The news has sent DARE stock up 67.2% to trade at $1.36 -- the best percentage gainer on the Nasdaq so far today. More broadly, the penny stock has been selling off since its July annual high of $12.40, down 89%, and is not far removed from its April 3 record low of $0.74.

Published on Apr 26, 2018 at 9:40 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

Earnings season will continue to dominate the headlines next week, as Dow stocks McDonald's (MCD), Merck & Co.,Inc (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE) will all be featured. Meanwhile, FAANG name Apple (AAPL), Elon Musk-led Tesla (TSLA), and social media giant Snap (SNAP) will also have their moment in the spotlight. 

Earnings are hardly the only highlight of the week, though. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will kick off on Tuesday, which will have investors tuned in for clues about upcoming interest rate hikes. A slew of other economic data is sprinkled in throughout the week, culminating in April's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

On Monday, April 30, the Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI), personal income, and pending home sales will kick off the week. McDonald's (MCD), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), AK Steel (AKS), Allergan (AGN), Arconic (ARNC), Diamond Offshore (DO), Transocean (RIG), U.S. Concrete (USCR) will report earnings.

The Fed meeting will begin on Tuesday, May 1, while auto sales, Markit's manufacturing PMI, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing survey, and construction spending data will also be released. Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE), Apple (AAPL), Aetna (AET), Allstate (ALL), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), BP (BP), CH Robinson (CHRW), Community Health (CYH), Gilead Sciences (GILD), GrubHub (GRUB), Juniper Networks (JNPR) Incyte (INCY), Lumber Liquidators (LL), Seagate Technology (STX)  Shopify (SHOP), Snap (SNAP), Tapestry (TPR), T-Mobile (TMUS), and Under Armour (UAA) will step into the earnings confessional.

Wednesday, May 2, brings the ADP employment report, the MBA mortgage index, and weekly crude inventories. Then, of course, the Fed will release the latest monetary policy update. 3D Systems (DDD), Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR), AmerisourceBergen (ABC), Avis Budget (CAR), Cerner (CERN), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Clorox (CLX), CVS Health Corp (CVS), FireEye (FEYE), Fitbit (FIT), Garmin (GRMN), Humana (HUM), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Marathon Oil (MRO), MasterCard (MA), MetLife (MET), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Prudential (PRU), Qorvo (QRVO), SodaStream (SODA), Southern (SO), Spotify (SPOT), Square (SQ), Tableau Systems (DATA), Tesla (TSLA), Wayfair (W), and Yum! Brands (YUM) will all unveil earnings.

Weekly jobless claims, productivity and costs, factory orders, the ISM non-manufacturing index, Markit's PMI services index, and international trade data are due out on a busy Thursday, May 3. DowDuPont (DWDP), 2U (TWOU), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), AerCap (AER), Blue Apron (APRN), Cardinal Health (CAH), Century Aluminum (CENX), GoPro (GPRO), Herbalife (HLF), ILG (ILG), Kellogg (K), Live Nation (LYV), Medifast (MED), Pandora (P), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT), Shake Shack (SHAK), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Stamps.com (STMP), Tesaro (TSRO), Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA), Universal Display (OLED), Weight Watchers (WTW), and Wingstop (WING) will report earnings.

On Friday, May 4, the week will close out with the April nonfarm payrolls report. Earnings from Alibaba (BABA), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Celgene (CELG), Immunogen (IMGN), and Newell Brands (NWL) will close the book on a busy week of reports.

Published on Apr 26, 2018 at 9:58 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is down 0.6% to trade at $279, following news the company's autopilot chief Jim Keller left the company -- the most recent in a long line of executive departures for the electric automaker. A CNBC interview this morning with famous short seller Jim Chanos could also be weighing on the stock. Chanos reiterated his short position on Tesla -- which he noted has been in place for four years -- while citing a number of reasons for his bearish stance, including the recent mass exodus of executives and increased competition from established automakers like Porsche.

TSLA stock has shed 10% in 2018 already, and fell to an annual low of $244.59 on April 2. The shares have been guided lower by their descending 30-day moving average throughout April, with Model 3 production issues only adding to the woes. Of course, the increased attention from short sellers could also be hurting, as the number of shorted Tesla shares surged almost 35% in the past two reporting periods to the highest point on record.

Options traders have seemingly been bearish, too. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows TSLA with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.08, a ratio that ranks 3 percentage points from a 52-week high. This means put buying has actually been more popular than call buying during the past two weeks, which is quite rare.

Digging deeper, the May 275 put saw a notable increase in open interest during that time frame. According to data from the major options exchanges, a majority of the activity at this strike has been of the buy-to-open kind, so many have been speculating on more losses for the equity in the weeks ahead. Tesla will step into the earnings confessional after the close next Wednesday.

Published on Apr 26, 2018 at 10:06 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Citrix Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CTXS) last night reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.29 per share on $697 million in revenue -- more than analysts were expecting. The software firm cited growing revenue from its subscription-based model for the strong results, and in reaction, CTXS stock has jumped 4.1% out of the gate to trade at $100.53 -- fresh off a record high of $102.88.

Analysts were quick to chime in on Citrix Systems after earnings, too. Overall, the reaction has been positive, with at least nine brokerages boosting their price targets on CTXS stock -- including Berenberg to $107 from $105. However, the firm also downgraded the security to "hold" from "buy," citing valuation concerns. The most upbeat outlook came from Mizuho, which raised its CTXS price target to $115 from $101.

This generally upbeat outlook toward Citrix Systems is rare among analysts, though. No fewer than 11 brokerages maintain a "hold" or "sell" rating on CTXS shares, while the average 12-month price target of $103.65 represents a slim 3.5% premium to current levels.

Looking closer at the charts, today's positive price action is just more of the same for the tech stock. Since bottoming at an annual low of $73.33 last August, the shares have surged nearly 38%. Helping CTXS have been sharp bounces off its 80-day and 120-day moving averages, which served as springboards during pullbacks in April and February, respectively. Should the security continue its uptrend, more bullish brokerage notes could create even bigger tailwinds.

Published on Apr 26, 2018 at 10:37 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Shares of Qualcomm, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) started the session higher, but have since dropped 1% to trade at $49.21, and earlier hit a two-year low of $48.56. The stock is reacting to Qualcomm's earnings report, which showed fiscal second-quarter profit and revenue that were stronger than forecast -- easing concerns of a slowing demand for chips -- though the company also warned of a loss in ZTE orders and licensing revenue in the third quarter. QCOM was also hit with a round of price-target cuts, with Stifel setting the lowest target at $54. 

Today's negative price action is just more of the same for QCOM, though, which has shed 23% year-to-date. What's more, the stock is pacing for its seventh straight loss, which would be its longest daily losing streak since September 2015.

In the options pits, however, traders have been more bullish than usual in recent weeks. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.33 ranking in the 69h percentile of its annual range. This suggests that calls have been purchased over puts at a faster-than-usual clip during the past two weeks.

Most of this action was centered at the May 52.50 call, where nearly 8,000 positions were bought to open over the past week. While some of this activity could be at the hands of "vanilla" call buyers, short interest on QCOM rose 32.6% in the past two reporting periods. In other words, shorts could have used these out-of-the-money calls to hedge against any post-earnings upside risk.
Published on Apr 26, 2018 at 10:38 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Buzz Stocks

Casino stock Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) is trading up 1.1% at $73.15 this morning, after the company announced better-than-expected first-quarter results after the close on Wednesday. If the gains hold, it would snap a two-quarter post-earnings losing streak for LVS. The resulting analyst attention has been nothing but positive, too, with at least six brokerage firms raising their price targets, ranging from $72 to $91.

As it stands now, the equity is up just over 5% in 2018, recently bouncing from familiar support in the form of the 160-day moving average. You can see in the chart below how well the shares performed following the two previous meet-ups with this trendline over the past year. On the other hand, LVS has suffered a series of lower highs since the January peak near $80. 

las vegas sands stock

Turning to recent options data, sentiment was bullish ahead of earnings, based on the 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.95 across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Not only does this show call buying roughly tripled put buying in the past two weeks, but that ratio tops 93% of all others from the past year, showing such a focus on long calls is relatively rare.

On a closer look, the June 80 call saw the largest increase in open interest during this time frame, followed by the front-month May 78 call. Anyone who bought to open the contracts will be looking for Las Vegas Sands stock to extend its rally in the weeks ahead. In today's post-earnings action, however, puts are actually more popular, trading at three times the expected pace, with new positions being opened at the weekly 4/27 73-strike put -- the most popular contract so far.

Published on Apr 26, 2018 at 3:00 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Analyst Update

The U.S. stock market is soaring today, thanks to a strong batch of corporate earnings reports. Included in the bunch are burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG), electronic payments processor PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL), and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD). Here's a closer look at how shares of CMG, PYPL, and AMD are trading today.

Chipotle Stock is Pacing for Its Highest Close Since June

Chipotle stock is holding near its intraday highs, up 24.4% at $422.30. Boosting the shares is stronger-than-expected first-quarter earnings and revenue, plus impressive same-store sales growth. The results are being seen as a positive review of new CEO Brian Niccol, who took over the embattled restaurant chain on March 5.

Adding to today's buzz is a round of bullish brokerage notes. While Cowen and Guggenheim upgraded CMG stock to the equivalent of a "neutral" recommendation, Canaccord Genuity raised its rating to "buy" from "hold." The latter also boosted its price target on to $425 from $300, the highest among the onslaught of price-target hikes the security received today.

CMG stock is now on track for its highest close since June 20, and is pacing for its biggest one-day percentage gain to date. Short sellers are likely fueling some of this upside, too. More than 3.6 million Chipotle shares are sold short -- 14.7% of the stock's available float -- and it would take more than a week to cover these bearish bets, at the average pace of trading.

PayPal Stock Surges After Earnings

PayPal reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of 57 cents per share on $3.69 billion in revenue -- more than analysts were expecting -- and upwardly revised its full-year revenue forecast to a range of $15.2 billion to $15.4 billion. The results earned PYPL stock a round of price-target hikes, including one to $98 from $97 at Nomura. And while Credit Suisse lowered its price target to $85 from $88, this is still a 10% premium to the equity's present perch.

Specifically, PYPL is trading up 4.5% at $77.34. This just echoes the stock's longer-term trajectory, with PayPal boasting a 74% year-over-year lead. Since hitting a record high of $86.32 back on Jan. 31, though, the shares have been stuck in a channel of lower highs. Familiar support has emerged at the 160-day moving average, which served as a floor for the shares in late 2016 and early 2017.

Against this backdrop, most analysts are upbeat toward PayPal, with 27 out of 33 maintaining "buy" or better ratings, and not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $85.15 is a healthy 10% premium to current trading levels.

AMD Stock Heads Toward Best Day Since Early 2017

Adjusted first-quarter profit for Advanced Micro Devices came in at 11 cents per share, while revenue rose 40% year-over-year to arrive at $1.65 billion -- with both numbers beating analysts estimates. The graphics chipmaker also gave strong current-quarter revenue guidance.

Wall Street has given its stamp of approval on the results, with price-target hikes coming from Susquehanna (to $8) and Stifel (to $14). J.P. Morgan, on the other hand, cut its AMD price target to $13 from $16, though this is still above the stock's current price of $10.95, up 12.8% so far today -- pacing for its best day since Feb. 1, 2017.

The shares have now made a decisive move above their 30-day moving average, which had ushered AMD lower since early March -- and to an annual low of $9.04 on April 4. A number of options traders are betting on this rally to continue through tomorrow's close. The weekly 4/27 11-strike call is most active in AMD's options pits today, and it looks like new positions are being purchased for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.18. This makes breakeven at expiration $11.18 (strike plus VWAP).

 

Published on Apr 27, 2018 at 9:51 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Software giant Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) is on the upswing this morning as Wall Street cheers a fiscal third-quarter profit and revenue beat. The tech company's robust results were driven by strong enterprise demand for its Office 365 productivity suite and its Azure cloud service, with the latter generating revenue growth of 93%.

The better-than-forecast quarterly report has elicited price-target hikes from no fewer than five brokerage firms, including a move up to $110 by Canaccord Genuity. That freshly boosted target implies expected upside of nearly 17% to Thursday's MSFT close at $94.26, and it's also a few points north of the equity's average 12-month price target of $106.21.

In early trading, Microsoft stock is up 3.4% at $97.46. Ahead of the event, the options market was pricing in a post-earnings daily stock move of 5.7% -- a bit more dramatic than MSFT's average single-session swing of 3.4% over the past eight quarters (per Trade-Alert).

From a broader perspective, MSFT is up 42% year-over-year, guided higher by its 40-day and 80-day moving averages. Given this positive price trend, it's no surprise to note that analysts were already bullishly aligned on Microsoft ahead of last night's well-received earnings. The stock has racked up no fewer than 21 "buy" or better ratings, compared to only six "hold" or "sell" suggestions.

Likewise, options traders were heavily skewed toward calls ahead of earnings. Total call open interest on MSFT stands at 1.15 million contracts, in the 91st annual percentile, while total put open interest of 841,948 contracts registers in the low 24th percentile of its annual range. In the front-month series, peak call open interest can be found at the May 95 strike, where 38,315 contracts are newly in the money.

Published on Apr 27, 2018 at 9:52 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) helped boost the broader stock market yesterday with its impressive earnings report. Shares of the social media company ended Thursday's session up more than 9% -- part of a month-long recovery since the Cambridge Analytica fallout -- and they're trading higher again today, as a number of market watchers are suggesting the equity's valuation remains too low.

Specifically, CNBC's Jim Cramer yesterday said Facebook could be the cheapest stock in the S&P 500 Index (SPX), explaining that blue chip Coca-Cola (KO) trades at the same price-to-earnings (p/e) multiple as the tech giant, despite Facebook's huge revenue growth. This sentiment was echoed by an analyst at Stifel this morning, who upgraded FB to "buy" from "hold" and raised their price target to $202 from $175, saying the security was "too cheap to ignore."

For what it's worth, Cramer was likely citing Facebook's forward-looking p/e ratio. But if we look at the trailing 12-month p/e ratio, FB's stood at 28.27 at yesterday's close, while KO's was actually in the mid-30s. Interestingly, this valuation measure has been steadily declining since January 2016. FB was last quoted at $176.69, up 1.5% for the day, putting it back above the 80-day moving average for the first time since before the data drama began in mid-March. As you can see on the chart below, this trendline offered nice support for the shares from June through January.

facebook stock price

This rebound in Facebook's stock price is bad news for short sellers, who've taken a newfound interest in the tech name in recent months -- a group that includes hedge fund giant Jeffrey Gundlach, who earlier this week recommended shorting the stock. By the numbers, short interest on FB has increased 45% in 2018, including a 19.3% jump over the past two reporting periods alone. Still, less than 2% of the total float is controlled by short sellers at the moment.

Published on Apr 27, 2018 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Expectational Analysis

Ahead of its first-quarter earnings report, due out after the close next Wednesday, May 2, Square Inc (NYSE:SQ) said it is buying website-building firm Weebly in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $365 million. The purchase will allow the payment processor to create a platform where small business owners can create websites and online stores. The news is being well-received, too, with SQ stock up 3.7% out of the gate to trade at $48.47.

This positive price action is nothing new for Square stock, though. Year-over-year, the shares have surged roughly 166%, and topped out at a record high of $58.45 on March 21. After hitting this milestone, the equity pulled back amid broader tech headwinds, but found a foothold atop -- and bounced from -- its 120-day moving average, and is now back above its historically bullish 80-day trendline.

There's plenty of fuel to keep today's rally going, especially if Square turns in another well-received quarterly report next week (the stock has had a positive earnings reaction in six of the last eight quarters). For starters, there are nearly 36 million SQ shares dedicated to short interest. This accounts for a healthy 13.6% of the stock's available float, and would take almost four days to cover, at the average pace of trading.

Plus, 13 analysts still maintain "hold" or "strong sell" recommendations, while the average 12-month price target of $49.39 sits just above Square's current price. This leaves the door open for upgrades and/or price-target hikes to draw more buyers to SQ's table.

And those looking to bet on Square with options are in luck, considering the tech stock has consistently rewarded premium buyers over the past year. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) reading stands at a lofty 97 out of a possible 100, meaning SQ has tended to make outsized moves over the last 12 months, relative to what the options market has priced in.

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