Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Nov 7, 2014 at 1:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC), where calls are crossing at a much faster rate than puts .

Most Active Options Table

Diving right in, Intel Corporation has seen 29,000 calls exchanged so far, versus 18,000 puts. The stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has edged 0.7% higher to 25%, as well, suggesting elevated demand for short-term strikes. A closer look reveals eight of the 10 most active INTC options expire within the next two weeks.

While the November 33 call occupies the top spot, IV is lower and open interest is sufficient enough to cover the volume, so positions may be closing. However, the second most active option -- the weekly 11/14 34-strike put -- is seeing opening activity, as IV is rising and volume outstrips open interest. Moreover, 95% of the volume here has traded at the ask price, hinting at buyer-driven activity.

Today's weekly put buyers expect INTC to keep descending below $34 by next Friday's close, when the 11/14 series expires. The shares are off 1.2% this afternoon at $33.43, meaning the options are currently in the money. However, in order for the traders to profit at expiration, the stock will need to settle below $33.31 (strike less the volume weighted average price of $0.69) one week from today.

On the charts, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is currently facing pressure from its descending 10-week moving average, located at $33.67. Also, the stock is testing support at its 20-week trendline, at $33.42.

Published on Nov 7, 2014 at 12:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the names that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Those highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is software issue Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT), as traders bet on a quick retreat from decade-plus highs.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

Microsoft Corporation tagged a fresh 14-year peak of $48.92 earlier, but was last seen 0.6% lower at $48.43. This change of trajectory has option bears rolling the dice on a steeper retreat over the next week, as they scoop up the equity's weekly 11/14 48.50-strike puts.

Specifically, this at-the-money put has seen the most action in MSFT's options pits today, with 5,957 contracts on the tape at last check. The majority of these have changed hands at the ask price, implied volatility has edged higher, and fewer than 450 contracts currently reside here, making it safe to assume new positions are being purchased.

Based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.54, breakeven at next Friday's close -- when the weekly series expires -- is $47.96 (strike less VWAP). Gains will accumulate south of here, while losses are limited to the initial premium paid, should MSFT settle north of the strike at next Friday's close.

From a wider sentiment perspective, option traders have been initiating long puts over calls at a faster-than-usual clip in recent months, despite MSFT boasting an impressive 29.5% year-to-date gain. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.88 ranks just 2 percentage points from a 52-week peak. Should the stock continue to notch a series of higher highs, an unwinding of the hedges related to these bearish bets -- or a re-evaluation of ratings from the skeptical brokerage bunch -- could help fuel Microsoft Corporation's (NASDAQ:MSFT) fire.

Published on Nov 7, 2014 at 11:06 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Option traders have grown increasingly bearish on Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), as the blue chip prepares to tell all in the earnings confessional after next Wednesday's close. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio has jumped to 1.47 from 0.88 since the start of the month. What's more, the current ratio ranks just 1 percentage point from a 52-week peak, meaning puts have been bought to open over calls at a near-annual-high clip.

It's a trend that's continuing today, with puts crossing the tape at a rate seven times the intraday average, and outpacing calls by a nearly 8-to-1 margin. Short-term contracts are in high demand, too, as evidenced by CSCO's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV), which is up 4.6% to 24.2%.

Drilling down, the stock's November and December 24 puts have garnered the most attention. A collective 29,919 contracts have changed hands here -- mostly at the ask price, hinting at buyer-driven activity. IV is higher at both strikes, and volume outstrips open interest at the back-month put, suggesting new positions are being initiated. This theory is echoed by Trade-Alert.

By purchasing the puts to open, the traders expect CSCO to surrender its perch atop $24 (the equity was last seen at $25.25) by the respective expiration dates. Delta on the front-month put is docked at negative 0.23, suggesting a less than 1-in-4 chance the option will be in the money at the close on Friday, Nov. 21 -- when the contracts expire. Delta on the back-month put -- which expires at the close on Friday, Dec. 19 -- is negative 0.25.

Looking at CSCO's historical post-earnings price action reveals these option bears may be lining up on the right side of the aisle. Over the past five quarters, specifically, the shares have averaged a loss of 3.5% in the session subsequent to reporting. For Cisco Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CSCO) fiscal first quarter, Wall Street is calling for a per-share profit of 53 cents.

Published on Nov 7, 2014 at 10:11 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) plunged right out of the gate this morning on a third-quarter sales warning, but it was a different story yesterday. On Thursday, the shares gained 4.7%, prompting a rush of options betting -- especially on the put side, where contracts crossed at an 83% mark-up to the daily average.

The two most active options were the weekly 11/7 34-strike put and the December 25 put, where a collective 3,151 contracts changed hands. Open interest at both strikes rose overnight, suggesting new positions were initiated. However, whereas the weekly puts traded mostly at the ask price, the back-month puts were exchanged largely at the bid price -- pointing to buy-to-open and sell-to-open activity, respectively.

Thursday's put buyers, who bet on ANF dropping below $34 by tonight's close (when the weekly contracts expire), are in luck. ANF has tumbled nearly 13% this morning to trade at $30.82, and earlier touched a two-year low of $30.31. On the other hand, the deep out-of-the-money put writers may be getting a little nervous, as they need ANF to maintain its perch atop $25 through the close on Friday, Dec. 19 -- when back-month options expire. Due to this morning's bear gap, delta on the back-month put has moved to negative 0.17 from negative 0.079 at Thursday's close.

Taking a step back, yesterday's preference for short-term Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) puts over calls is fairly typical. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.79 ranks in the 97th percentile of its annual range, meaning speculators have played puts over calls at a near-extreme rate, among options set to expire within three months.

Published on Nov 7, 2014 at 7:42 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are blue chip The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), and retailers Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) and Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT). Below, we'll break down how option buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on DIS, BBY, and TGT.

  • Since dropping to $78.54 in mid-October, shares of DIS have rallied 17.1% to $92.00 -- an all-time high. Still, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), The Walt Disney Company's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.32 ranks higher than 99% of all other similar readings taken in the past year, meaning puts are being bought to open at a near-annual-high rate. However, given the equity's technical tenacity, these bets may have been initiated by shareholders looking for a hedge. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index comes in at 21%, ranking in the 31st percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term options are on the inexpensive side, from a volatility perspective.

  • BBY is down 11.7% on the year, but has been climbing steadily higher since its 28.6% gap lower in January. Since that time, the stock has added 31.2% -- including a gain of 1.7% yesterday, to finish at $35.21. Shares are nearing their consensus 12-month price target of $35.23, revealing there may be potential for price-target hikes to push them higher. On top of this, 10.2% of BBY's float is sold short, representing nearly five days' worth of pent-up buying power, at the stock's average daily trading volume. In other words, the stage may be set for a short-covering rally, on continued upside. Options traders are optimistic about the equity, with Best Buy Co Inc's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 6.71 at an annual high -- though some of this may be the work of the aforementioned short sellers. Traders are currently paying above-average prices for BBY's near-term options, according to its SVI of 53%, which is in the 66th percentile of its annual range.

  • TGT added 1.3% yesterday, finishing at $61.89. Despite this, the shares are down 4.5% year-over-year. Target Corporation's long-term struggles aren't scaring away bullish options traders, though. The equity's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio stands at 1.96, in the 71st percentile of its annual range. However, TGT's near-term options are expensive, on a volatility basis, as its SVI of 26% ranks in the 86th percentile of its 12-month range.

Published on Nov 6, 2014 at 2:56 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) has tacked on 2.6% today, after announcing it has been selected for a major photovoltaic (PV) development project in Brazil (subscription required). With this rally, the shares -- at $30.47 -- are finally back in the black on a year-to-date basis. Meanwhile, options traders are eyeing additional upside for the alternative energy stock over the next several months.

Diving right in, CSIQ's most active option is the January 2015 31-strike call, where 470 contracts have been exchanged. All have done so at the ask price, implied volatility has risen 4.8 percentage points to 71.5%, and volume outstrips open interest. All things considered, it's safe to assume bullish bets are being initiated at the near-the-money strike.

Today's call buyers are hopeful CSIQ will spike north of $31 by the close on Friday, Jan. 16, when the options expire. This isn't totally out of the question, given that the stock's intraday high is $31.73, touched in late-morning trading. Accordingly, delta on the Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) call is lodged at 0.54, suggesting a better than 1-in-2 chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

Published on Nov 6, 2014 at 1:46 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ:MPEL) is up 1.2% this afternoon at $24.68, despite earlier posting disappointing third-quarter results. Against this backdrop, the casino operator's options pits are humming, with calls trading at five times the expected intraday rate.

Most active by a mile is MPEL's November 26 call, where 11,238 contracts are on the tape. For comparison, the stock's second most active strike has seen fewer than 1,500 contracts exchanged thus far.

Digging deeper, the majority of the front-month calls have traded at the ask price, and volume dwarfs open interest, making it safe to assume buy-to-open activity is transpiring. This theory is echoed by data from Trade-Alert and the International Securities Exchange (ISE). In short, these call buyers expect MPEL to rally past $26 by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when the options expire.

Moving to the charts, it's been a rather miserable year for Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd (ADR) (NASDAQ:MPEL). The stock has tumbled 37% in 2014, and has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by almost 15 percentage points during the last 60 sessions. As such, delta on the November 26 call is just 0.30, signifying a 30% chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

Published on Nov 6, 2014 at 1:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Three stocks seeing notable options activity today are online real estate concern Zillow Inc (NASDAQ:Z), mobile phone issue Sierra Wireless, Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ:SWIR), and chipmaker NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA). Here's a quick look at how speculators have been placing their bets on Z, SWIR, and NVDA.

  • Zillow Inc (NASDAQ:Z) is down 3% at $100.72, as a hefty acquisition-related loss and soft current-quarter guidance overshadow the company's record third-quarter revenue. Adding to the bearish bias is a round of price-target cuts from no fewer than 10 brokerage firms. Among them is CRT Capital, which slashed its outlook by $32 to $108, while underscoring its "fair value" rating. This move lower has sparked a rare rush of put activity in the equity's options pits, with the contracts crossing the tape at a rate seven times the intraday average. Most active is Z's weekly 11/7 100-strike put, which is apparently seeing a mix of buy-to-open and sell-to-close activity, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE).

  • A strong third-quarter earnings report and better-than-expected current-quarter forecast helped lift Sierra Wireless, Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ:SWIR) to a 10-year peak of $33.87 earlier, with the shares last seen 25.7% higher at $33.35. The brokerage bunch was quick to weigh in on the results, with no fewer than eight firms raising their price targets on the shares. However, although Paradigm upped its target price to $21 from $20, it also reduced its rating to "sell." In the options pits, overall volume has soared to 12 times what's typically seen at this point in the day. Drilling down, bulls are buying to open the equity's March 35 call to gamble on longer-term gains, while bears are looking for a quick retreat by initiating new long positions at SWIR's November 30 put.

  • NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) option volume is running at 1.5 times the expected intraday amount, ahead of tonight's quarterly earnings report. Short-term traders are hoping for another post-earnings pop for the chipmaker, and are buying to open the equity's weekly 11/14 22-strike call. Meanwhile, longer-term speculators are eyeing technical struggles over the next several months. Specifically, the March 19 put is NVDA's most active option thus far, with 3,068 contracts on the tape. The majority of these have changed hands at the ask price, and volume outstrips open interest, making it safe to assume new positions are being purchased. At last check, the shares were down 0.7% to trade squarely at $20.
Published on Nov 6, 2014 at 10:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Genworth Financial Inc (NYSE:GNW) tagged a fresh annual low of $8.75 earlier, but was last seen down 35.8% -- its heftiest one-day drop in six years -- after the company recorded its biggest quarterly net loss on record. Amid this bearish gap, the stock has been placed on the short-sale restricted list, and options volume has soared to 28 times the average intraday pace. Short-term contracts are in high demand, too, as evidenced by GNW's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility, which has soared 67.7% to 64.2% -- a 52-week peak.

Despite today's sharp move lower, calls have the edge over puts, with a number of option bulls betting on a quick move back into double-digit territory. Specifically, the stock's weekly 11/7 and 11/14 10-strike calls have received notable attention, with a collective 10,489 contracts on the tape at last check. The majority of these calls have crossed on the ask side, and volume outstrips open interest -- two signs new positions are being purchased.

By initiating these long calls, traders expect GNW to reclaim its perch atop the $10 mark by the respective expiration dates. Amid today's steep sell-off, though, delta on the weekly 11/7 strike has plunged to 0.17 from 1.00, suggesting a less than 1-in-5 chance the option will be in the money at this Friday's close, when the series expires. Meanwhile, delta on the weekly 11/14 strike -- which expires at next Friday's close -- has dropped to 0.22 from 1.00.

Heading into today's session, Genworth Financial Inc (NYSE:GNW) was already down 9.4% year-to-date, yet half of covering analysts had levied a "buy" or "strong buy" rating toward the shares. Today's dive hasn't convinced analysts at BTIG to budge from their "buy" rating, though, explaining the company's fundamental woes are now priced into the stock. They did, however, cut their price target by $6 to $16, although this still represents expected upside of nearly 77% to the security's current perch at $9.04. Meanwhile, Compass Point lowered its opinion of GNW to "neutral."

Published on Nov 6, 2014 at 10:11 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Gogo Inc (NASDAQ:GOGO) lost nearly 2% yesterday, prompting a rush of bearish betting in the stock's options pits. In fact, puts traded at a 79% mark-up to the daily average. What's more, the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility popped 4.2% to 71.8%, signaling elevated demand for short-term strikes.

Digging deeper, the weekly 11/7 16-strike put was GOGO's most sought-after option, followed closely by the December 14 put. In both cases, the vast majority of the volume crossed at the ask price, and open interest increased overnight, suggesting the contracts were largely bought to open. In other words, the traders expect GOGO -- up fractionally this morning at $16.35 -- to descend below the strikes by the respective expiration dates.

Within the lifetime of the December 14 put is GOGO's third-quarter earnings report, due out next Monday morning. The Street is projecting a per-share loss of 26 cents for the in-flight wireless provider. Looking back over the past five quarters, GOGO tends to swing wildly in the session following these events. On average, the stock has moved 4.3% higher during that time span -- though this is partially skewed by a 28.8% gain after last November's report.

So far this year, Gogo Inc (NASDAQ:GOGO) has struggled significantly, losing more than one-third of its value. In recent weeks, however, the stock has been consolidating in the $16.50 neighborhood, just below its 80-day moving average.

Published on Nov 6, 2014 at 7:35 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are aluminum giant Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA), home improvement retailer The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD), and athletic apparel retailer Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE). Below, we'll break down how option buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on AA, HD, and NKE.

  • AA was off 1.6% on Wednesday, finishing at $16.26. Year-to-date, the equity has added 53%. However, in the last four months, Alcoa Inc has seen resistance around the $17 mark, and options traders have been showing pessimism toward the equity in even more recent weeks. Specifically, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), AA's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.30 sits just 7 percentage points from an annual bearish peak. Right now, options traders can place their bets at a relative discount, from a volatility perspective, with the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33% ranking in the 39th percentile of its annual range.

  • Options traders have also been placing bearish bets on HD at a faster-than-usual pace. The stock's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.43 sits only 1 percentage point from an annual bearish extreme. Additionally, The Home Depot Inc. has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.54, in the 76th percentile of its annual range, displaying traders' preference for short-term puts over calls. HD's near-term options are currently on the expensive side, as its SVI comes in at 23%, in the 80th percentile of its annual range. Taking a step back, HD has added 16.3% in 2014, and closed 0.2% lower on Wednesday at $95.78.

  • Finally, NKE continued its push higher on Wednesday, hitting a record high of $94.84, before ending 0.8% higher at $94.68. It's more of the same for the equity, which has added 23.3% year-over-year, and 18.7% since its Sep. 26 earnings report. In the options pits, traders are expecting Nike Inc to continue its uptrend. The stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 4.91 lands in the 86th percentile of all similar readings taken in the past 12 months. What's more, NKE's options are currently inexpensive, on a volatility basis, according to its SVI of 16% -- which ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. The stock could also see a boost from a potential round of price-target hikes, considering its current perch rests atop its consensus 12-month price target of $94.67.

Published on Nov 5, 2014 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:JAZZ) touched a record high of $180 out of the gate this morning, following a well-received earnings report -- which included better-than-expected full-year guidance -- and a subsequent round of price-target hikes. However, at last check, the shares have pared most of their earlier gains -- up just 0.8% at $169.75 -- and one group of options traders sees fairly significant downside ahead.

Diving right in, options are crossing at an accelerated rate this afternoon -- especially on the put side, where the roughly 2,700 contracts on the tape outstrip the expected intraday volume by an 11-to-1 margin. Accounting for the majority of this put activity is the November 160 strike, where nearly 2,200 contracts have been exchanged.

The majority of the out-of-the-money November 160 puts traded so far have done so at the ask price, suggesting they're being bought. What's more, with just 1,516 contracts in open interest, it's safe to assume some of the puts are being freshly minted. Long story short, these speculators expect JAZZ to plunge below $160 by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when front-month options expire.

Taking a step back, today's preference for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ:JAZZ) put buying falls in line with a recent trend. Specifically, the stock's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 4.89 ranks in the bearishly skewed 97th percentile of its annual range. Of course, given JAZZ's longer-term uptrend -- the stock has tacked on about 34% this year -- a portion of these long puts may have been initiated by shareholders seeking a pre-earnings hedge.

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