Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 28, 2018 at 10:13 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is dropping again today, down 6.3% at $261.60, and just off a new annual low of $260.89. It's been a rough stretch lately for TSLA stock, on track for its worst weekly loss since July 2017, and its steepest monthly loss since December 2010. The shares sank yesterday after Citi Research waxed pessimistic on next week's Model 3 update, and on news of a federal investigation into a fatal Tesla vehicle crash. Today, the stock is down after Moody's downgraded the firm's credit rating.

However, Morgan Stanley thinks TSLA's dip could represent a buying opportunity for some. Still, the brokerage firm said Alphabet's (GOOGL) Waymo agreement with Jaguar poses a challenge to Tesla's autonomous driving leadership, and that while it expects the much-publicized Model 3 bottleneck to be mitigated, it doesn't expect a run rate of 5,000 a week until late this year.

In the options pits, puts continue to creep up on calls. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows TSLA with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.96, ranking in the 90th percentile of its annual range. This shows that during the past two weeks, puts have been purchased over calls at a much faster-than-usual clip.

What's more, TSLA's stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.68 ranks in the 98th percentile of its annual range, indicating a heavier-than-normal put-skew among options expiring within three months. In the April series, the deep out-of-the-money 200-strike put is most popular, with more than 8,800 contracts outstanding.

It's getting pricey to buy premium on Tesla stock, however. Its 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 65.9% ranks in the 100th annual percentile, and its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 58% sits above 86% of all similar readings taken in the last 12 months. These two indicators suggest elevated volatility expectations are being priced into short-term options.

Published on Mar 28, 2018 at 11:19 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Buzz Stocks

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is trading lower alongside fellow FAANG stocks Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) today. The e-tailer is reportedly in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump, and per Axios, the president could be considering shifting the tax structure for e-tailers. This wouldn't be the first time he targeted the company, and last August, Trump tweeted "Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Most recently, AMZN stock was down 3.6% at $1,443.10.

The stock is now down 10.8% from its March 13 record high of $1,617.54, but found a foothold atop its 60-day moving average -- which served as support in mid-2017, as well. Amazon is also holding above its 20% year-to-date level, located at $1,403.36.

Given it's longer-term uptrend, it's not too surprising to see sentiment tilted toward the bullish side. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), AMZN's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.25 ranks in the 95th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip in the last two weeks.

Amid the stock's recent correction, short-term calls have become cheap relative to their puts counterparts. Amazon's 30-day implied volatility skew comes in at 13.7%, ranking in the 99th annual percentile.

 

Published on Mar 28, 2018 at 2:16 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The Dow has explored both sides of breakeven today, but was last seen in positive territory. Three names making notable moves today are telecom giant Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ), drug stock Shire PLC (NASDAQ:SHPG), and retailer Macy's Inc (NYSE:M). Here's what's moving shares of VZ, SHPG, and M.

VZ Stock Gets Rare Bull Note

Verizon stock is getting a bump today thanks to bullish attention out of HSBC. An analyst there upgraded VZ and its telecom peers AT&T (T) and T-Mobile (TMUS) to "buy" from "hold," because all are well positioned to benefit from a number of digital trends. Verizon shares were last seen trading 2.4% higher at $48.44, putting them just below the 320-day moving average that acted as a ceiling for most the month. Overall, the blue chip is down 8.5% year-to-date.

Most analysts are still on the fence when it comes to the security. There are 21 brokerage firms in coverage, and 13 of them have "hold" ratings in place. On the other hand, the average 12-month price target stands up at $56.08 -- a 16% premium to current levels.

M&A Buzz Gives SHPG a Lift

News that Japan-based Takeda Pharmaceutical is considering making an offer to buy the company has shares of Shire PLC up 15.4% at $148.68. However, the shares earlier topped out just below their year-to-date breakeven point and have moved back below a trendline connecting lower highs since late 2016, a level nearly equal to the downtrending 200-day moving average.

While this technical picture surely isn't the best, Wall Street is very bullish on SHPG. Specifically, 11 of the 14 analysts covering the security say it's a "buy," and the average 12-month price target comes in at $191.14.

Macy's Shares Rally From Technical Support

Macy's stock is up 3.6% at $28.87, thanks to reports President Trump is considering changing the tax structure for e-commerce companies like Amazon (AMZN). M shares have been pushing higher since bottoming near $17.40 back in November, recently bouncing from the $27-$28 area. This level is home to the security's big bear gap from last May, its December and January highs, as well as the 50-day moving average. Looking even closer, the shares are set to take out a trendline connecting lower highs since their Feb. 27 high of $31.04.

This recent outperformance comes despite growing short interest levels, with the number of Macy's shares held by short sellers increasing 22% in just the last reporting period. Overall, over 17% of the stock's float is now controlled by short sellers -- suggesting the retailer could benefit from a short squeeze.

Published on Mar 28, 2018 at 3:17 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

Jobs data will be on Wall Street's radar next week, with ADP private payrolls due out on Wednesday, and the Labor Department's March jobs update slated for release on Friday. A handful of Fed speakers could also spark some volatile trading, while a relatively light earnings calendar features high-profile homebuilder Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) and takeover target Finish Line Inc (NASDAQ:FINL).

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Markit's purchasing managers manufacturing index (PMI) will kick off a busy day of economic activity on Monday, April 2. Wall Street will also see the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing survey and construction spending data. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak after the close. Conn's (CONN) will report earnings.

Motor vehicle sales will be released on Tuesday, April 3. Kashkari will take the stage again as the opening bell rings. Dave & Buster's (PLAY) and Finish Line (FINL) are slated to step into the earnings confessional.

Wednesday, April 4, brings the ADP private sector jobs report, Markit's PMI services index, factory orders, the ISM non-manufacturing index, and the weekly crude inventories update. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is scheduled to speak. Acuity Brands (AYI), Lennar (LEN), Fred's (FRED), and Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) will unveil earnings.

International trade data and weekly jobless claims are due out on Thursday, April 5, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is set to speak. Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) will report earnings. 

The headline event on Friday, April 6, will be the release of the March jobs report. Earnings from Monsanto (MON) are due.

Published on Mar 29, 2018 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shares of oil-and-gas concern Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) are up 0.4% at $112.58, after the stock received a price-target hike from Citigroup, to $133 from $125. The raise follows yesterday's dip for CVX stock, as oil prices fell after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a bigger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Overall, Chevron stock has had an unimpressive year, shedding 10% year-to-date. The stock notched a three-year peak of $133.86 on Jan. 16, but soon after plummeted on a disappointing earnings report and amid the broader stock market correction. CVX stock ultimately fell to the $108 level in early February, and since then has struggled beneath its 160-day moving average.

Despite the stock's 2018 performance, analyst attention has been optimistic towards CVX, with 13 out of 17 carrying "strong buy" recommendations. Further, the stock's 12-month price-target of $135.50 sits at a 21% premium to current levels.

In the options pits, sentiment has been bullish as well, with data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) showing CVX with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.22, ranking in the 85th percentile of its annual range. This shows that during the past two weeks, CVX calls have been purchased over puts at a much faster-than-usual clip.

Echoing this, Chevron stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.77 is in just the 20th percentile of its annual range, implying that short-term traders are more call-heavy than usual right now.

Published on Mar 29, 2018 at 9:58 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) stock is lower today, down 1.4% at $57.09, after Wedbush downgraded the coffee giant to "neutral" from "outperform," while slashing its price target to $56 from $70. According to the brokerage firm, "We no longer see drivers of upside to same store sales growth and EPS consensus expectations in 2018 and see rising risks to 2019 expectations." It also added that future China growth could fall short of expectations.

The news has Starbucks back below breakeven for the year, with shares again testing support at their 200-day moving average. Looking back further, the equity has shed roughly 12% since its record high of $64.87 from early June, and for the most part has spent its time churning between $55 and $60 since mid-2015.

Analysts remain in the security's corner, for now. Of the 26 brokerages that are covering Starbucks stock, 19 rate it a "buy" or "strong buy." Furthermore, SBUX's average 12-month price target of $63.82 represents a nearly 12% premium from the stock's current perch. This indicates the security could be susceptible to more downgrades and/or price-target cuts in the future.

Short sellers have continued to target the security, though. Short interest increased by nearly 22% during the last two reporting periods to 36.75 million shares, the most since 2010. However, this still only represents roughly 2.7% of SBUX's total available float, indicating there is plenty more room aboard the bearish bandwagon. 

In the options pits, puts have become more popular in recent months. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.99, ranking 3 percentage points from a 52-week high. In other words, puts have been purchased over calls at a much faster-than-usual clip. Those looking to bet on Starbucks using options must pay up, however, according to its 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 27.2%, ranking in the 99th annual percentile. 

Published on Mar 29, 2018 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Shares of GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) are plunging, after the video game retailer said it expects total sales to fall 2%-6% this year, and 2018 same-store sales to arrive in the flat-to-5% lower range. This, along with a round of bearish brokerage notes, is overshadowing GME's fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beats, and has the stock trading down 12% at $12.46, and fresh off a 12-year low of $12.20.

Among the analysts chiming in after GameStop's earnings was Ascendiant, which lowered its price target to $17 from $20 -- citing disappointing sales from the company's used business, a "major profit driver." Telsey Advisory also cut its price target to $17, while Wedbush moved its target down to $19. Benchmark came in with the most bearish outlook, slashing its GME target price to $12 from $15, territory not seen since April 2005.

Heading into today's trading, most analysts were already skeptical of GME, with 71% maintaining a "hold" or worse rating. This shouldn't be too surprising given the stock's longer-term technical troubles, with GameStop shares off more than 43% year-over-year. What's more, the stock is set to close out the first quarter down 26% -- which would mark its worst quarterly loss since December 2015.

Put buyers are certainly sitting pretty. Specifically, GME's April 19 put is home to peak open interest of 18,409 contracts, and data points to mostly buy-to-open activity here. For instance, a number of puts were apparently bought to open on Jan. 16, with Trade-Alert noting a closing price of $2.78. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) on these puts was last seen at $6.32, meaning those who bought to puts back in January have tripled their money.

Today, eleventh-hour options traders are betting on even bigger losses through tonight's close. Puts outpace calls by a 3-to-1 margin in early trading, and buy-to-open activity has been detected at the weekly 3/29 12.50-strike put.

Published on Mar 29, 2018 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Brokerage firm Jefferies has been weighing in on a number of healthcare stocks this week, predicting big upside for AnaptysBio (ANAB) and Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR). This morning, the firm turned its attention to Miragen Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:MGEN), initiating coverage with a "buy" rating and $14 price target -- well above the shares' Wednesday settlement at $6.82. The covering analyst suggested data from upcoming drug trials could push MGEN stock higher from its seemingly cheap valuation. At last check, the shares are up 3.1% to trade at $7.03.

Interestingly, this bullish attention is nothing new for the drugmaker. In fact, all six brokerage firms in coverage have "strong buy" recommendations, and the average 12-month price target is a very elevated $17.93 -- territory not charted since last March.

Looking back, the shares haven't done much to earn this bullish bias. They're down 40.8% over the past year, and a breakout attempt back in December and January was quickly thwarted by the 200-day moving average.

Taking a quick look at another big healthcare mover this morning, MediciNova, Inc. (NASDAQ:MNOV) is trading down 12% at $10.51, following disappointing mid-stage trial results for the company's methamphetamine dependence treatment -- its lead drug candidate. MNOV has fallen below the 50-day moving average for the first time since the start of the year, but remains up more than 62% year-to-date.

Many people are betting against the drugmaker, though. Short interest increased 16.5% in the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for more than 10% of the equity's float. Going by average daily volumes, it'd take short sellers more than two weeks to buy back their positions. The shares are short-sale restricted today, however.

Published on Mar 29, 2018 at 12:46 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown

After wrapping up their worst week in years, U.S. stocks enjoyed their best day since 2015 on Monday, thanks to easing trade war concerns. While this massive turnaround sent up a pair of stock market signals not seen since 2011, the upside momentum didn't last. Another rough week for FAANG stocks pushed the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) into the red, with the tech-rich index on pace for a third straight weekly drop -- something we haven't seen since August. Further, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) are set for their worst monthly losses since January 2016, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is on track for its worst quarter -- and first quarterly loss -- since 2015.

Facebook Drags Partners Lower, Eyes Worst Month in 4 Years

The fallout from the Cambridge Analytica scandal continued for Facebook (FB). The stock briefly touched its lowest point since July, as traders prepare for CEO Mark Zuckerberg to testify before Congress next month. FB stock is now on track for a third straight weekly loss of its own -- something we haven't seen since August. Further, the social media stock is set to end March with a deficit of more than 10%, marking its biggest monthly drop in four years.

Meanwhile, notorious short seller Citron Research warned that Shopify (SHOP) has a "major Facebook problem," and predicted SHOP shares to sink. Acxiom (ACXM) stock also plummeted, after Facebook said it would end partnerships with several large data brokers.

Amazon v. Trump

Fellow FAANG stock Amazon (AMZN) is eyeing its worst month since January 2016. The shares gapped lower on Wednesday, amid reports President Donald Trump is "obsessed" with the e-commerce giant, and is considering shifting the tax structure for internet retailers. As expected, Trump on Thursday tweeted about his "concerns with Amazon" and its impact on the U.S. Postal Service.

However, the president's beef with AMZN was a boon for several brick-and-mortar retailers. Macy's (M) stock led the SPX mid-week, thanks to a dose of schadenfreude.

Goldman Cuts iPhone Estimates; NFLX Swoons

Rounding out our FAANG coverage, Apple (AAPL) stock briefly struggled after Goldman Sachs analysts cut their iPhone sales estimates, as well as their price target on the Dow stock. Nevertheless, AAPL stock is among the few tech-sector members set to end the week in the black, and a pair of Apple suppliers might be flashing "buy" at current levels.

Netflix (NFLX), on the other hand, is set for a third straight weekly loss -- again, something we haven't seen since August. The stock was taken down mid-week by sector headwinds, shrugging off a price-target hike at Barclays. Still, NFLX is pacing for its best quarter since June 2015, up nearly 50%, thanks to a huge January rally.

Best and Worst Stocks for April, Second Quarter

U.S. stocks will emerge from the long holiday weekend on Monday, kicking off a week chock-full of jobs data. In addition, Spotify is set to go public, and Tesla (TSLA) -- set for its worst month in years -- is expected to give a Model 3 update. The earnings calendar is relatively light, although Finish Line (FINL) -- which just agreed to be bought by JD Sports -- will report.

Monday will also be the first trading day of April and the second quarter. Among our list of best stocks to own in April, this transport stock could outperform, if history repeats. On the flip side, several airline stocks have been among the worst stocks to own in April and the second quarter. These oil stocks could also struggle in the short term, if past is prologue.

Published on Mar 29, 2018 at 1:22 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The Dow is rallying today thanks to a strong move from Apple (AAPL), but the index is still set to snap its quarterly win streak. Some stocks making notable moves today are data broker Acxiom Corporation (NASDAQ: ACXM), farming and construction equipment manufacturer Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ:TITN), and watchmaker Movado Group, Inc (NYSE:MOV). Below we'll take a look at what's moving shares of ACXM, TITN, and MOV.

ACXM Plummets as Facebook Ends Partnership

Shares of ACXM are falling due to news Facebook cut ties with data brokers in light of its recent data drama. Acxiom said its revenue could take up to a $25 million hit in 2019 as a result. The shares were down 32.6% at $18.90 at last check, just off a two-year low of $18.60, earning a spot on the short sale restricted list in the process.

Luckily for them, short sellers had already gotten to work before today. Short interest on Acxiom had been moving sharply higher since August, jumping 20% in the last reporting period alone.

Titan Machinery Stock Higher on Fourth-Quarter Report

Titan Machinery stock is moving higher -- near the top of the Nasdaq -- after reporting a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss, and higher-than-expected revenue. In response, TITN surged to a fresh four-year high of $25.09, and was last seen up 12% at $22.08. 

Titan stock has gained 42% year-over-year, but two of the three analysts in coverage have just "hold" ratings in place. Maybe that'll change, however, since Craig-Hallum moved in this morning with a price-target hike to $26 from $24.

MOV Tops NYSE on Revenue Beat

MOV is at the top of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and fresh off a three-year high of $42.25, after reporting strong fourth-quarter revenue. Shares of Movado stock were 17% higher to trade at $38.70 at last check, gapping higher from the recent support of the 80-day moving average. This brings the equity's quarterly gain to 19.4%, putting it well on pace for a fourth straight quarterly win.

Published on Apr 2, 2018 at 9:12 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Two weeks ago shares of Olive Garden parent Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) suffered a major post-earnings bear gap, and as a result closed the first quarter down 11.2%. Brokerage firm RBC, however, is viewing this pullback as a buying opportunity, upgrading DRI stock this morning to "outperform" from "sector perform" and lifting its price target to $97 from $93. The shares are set to open up 1.5% at $86.49, based on pre-market action.

There are a number of signs the bullish call could be a savvy one, too. First of all, Darden has been a strong performer on the charts on a long-term basis, roughly doubling in value over the past four years. Maybe more notably, the equity has historically outperformed in the second quarter, gaining 13.5% on average during the period over the past 10 years. In fact, DRI has only closed the second quarter in negative territory once in the last decade.

Aside from the favorable seasonality, the shares have seemingly found a solid area of technical support. For instance, they closed last week just above the $85 mark, which equals a roughly 15% discount to their January record high of $100.10. This area also acted as technical resistance from late July to early December of last year, and if that's not enough, the rising 320-day moving average has also moved into this region.

dri stock

Meanwhile, other analysts are split on the restaurant stock, with half the brokerage firms in coverage handing out "strong buy" ratings and the other half saying DRI is a "hold" or "sell." Options traders on the other hand have been decidedly bearish, based on the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 4.72 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This reading ranks just 4 percentage points from a 12-month high, showing an unusual interest in long puts lately.

Options traders aren't the only skeptics out there. Short interest jumped 22% in the last two reporting periods after touching a multi-year low in February. Based on average daily volumes it would take these bears more than a week to cover their positions.

Published on Apr 2, 2018 at 9:40 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM) stock is up 6.1% to trade at $285.25, thanks to a Wall Street Journal report last week saying retail giant Walmart (WMT) was in talks to potentially buy the health insurer. A number of analysts believe the move could be in response to Amazon's (AMZN) push into healthcare. Meanwhile, Jefferies thinks such a deal would make sense for both parties, while Piper Jaffray does not see the fit given Walmart's lack of healthcare footprint. 

Nevertheless, Humana stock has broken through the $280 level that stifled its February breakout attempt. The shares rocketed to a record of $293.35 on Jan. 29, but pulled back to their supportive 50-day moving average, and since then have consolidated between the $260-$275 level. The equity was up 30% year-over-year even before today's jump.

In the options pits, puts have become more popular in recent weeks, despite low absolute volumes. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows HUM with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.30, which indicates long puts have more than doubled calls in the past two weeks. Should Humana stock continue to break out, it could lead to an unwinding of these bearish bets. 

Echoing this, Humana stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.71 ranks in the 79th annual percentile. This elevated ranking shows put open interest in contracts expiring within three months is much higher than normal compared to call open interest.

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