I forgot to write down one of my predictions yesterday. So here we go: I bet realized volatility (RV) lifts in 2015, at least from these levels.

FWIW $SPX 5 day historical volatility at 2.6% from 30% 2 wks ago

— Chris McKhann (@volatrade) December 29, 2014

A 16 volatility equals about a 1% move on a typical day. So, 2.6 volatility means something like a move of 0.15% or less on two-thirds of days. In other words, about 3 S&P 500 Index (SPX) points. Ouch. Now, in all fairness, it was a holiday week that included a half session and a low-volume "island" Friday that coincided with Boxing Day, and we know that no one trades on Boxing Day while returning presents and watching English soccer.

So let's say that "real" RV is twice that high. Heck, let's say it's three times that high. Call it 8 volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) itself is 16. That's twice the level of an adjusted RV guess. Yes, they are two different animals. RV looks backward, implied volatility prices on forward expectations. There's no arb, and there's theoretically no relationship. Except, in reality, there is a relationship. VIX does a better job predicting what already happened than what happens next.

In my book, I ran numbers to compare how well VIX correlated to backward-looking realized volatility, and other numbers comparing how well VIX correlated to ultimately simultaneous volatility. For the latter part, that would involve taking today's VIX (16) and then comparing it to realized volatility over the next 30 calendar days. Obviously, we can only do that in hindsight.

Long story short, VIX from inception to about 2008 (when I wrote my book) had about a 0.85 correlation to backward-looking RV (both 25-day and 30-day, for what it's worth). Simultaneous VIX had a 0.74 correlation to RV. That's still strong, but not quite as strong.

That's a longer-winded way of saying it's possible VIX is accurately predicting an uptick in volatility, but the more noteworthy takeaway is that it's unusually overpriced vs. the RV we can see on our screens right now. So, news flash: the market expects an uptick in volatility. Unscientifically, I'd say VIX has called 40 of the last six RV spikes. But you never know.

What I do know is that's a wrap for 2014. Have a great New Year's Eve and a happy and healthy New Year's, and let's go get them in 2015!

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

For those of you who got lousy gift cards this holiday season, you're in luck: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) just announced a gift card trade-in program. Basically, just head to WMT's CardCash website with that $50 gift card you have no idea how you'd spend, plug in the card number, and receive a WMT gift card worth …

Well, it depends. The world's largest retailer isn't providing a dollar-for-dollar exchange, and the amount you'll receive depends on the gift card you're trading. So, for example, a $100 Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) gift card may net you only $75 in "WMT bucks" (actually, when I ran the numbers through CardCash, the actual amount was $72.45). According to the site, customers can get up to 97% of a gift card's face value.

This sounds like a less-than-compelling deal, but put it in perspective: If you get a gift card you don't want, you can either 1) not use it and get nothing in return, 2) regift it to someone who might appreciate it (or might resent you for it), or 3) buy something you don't need. I'll take the exchange, any day of the week.

Also, I don't blame WMT for not offering a dollar-for-dollar exchange. Some gift cards are inherently more valuable than others, depending on the owner. So why not provide the terms of the transaction and let the consumer decide for himself? I'm all about empowering the individual.

Moving along, I was curious to see how generous this program is. Or, more specifically, how well WMT knows me as a customer, and how much it would take to pry a gift card for retailers X, Y, and Z out of my hands. So here are a number of stores and restaurants, the number at which I'd be willing to exchange a $100 gift card, my rationale, and most importantly, what WMT was actually offering at the time of publication.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $50
• Reason: I'm no longer 15 years old. (That said, perhaps my colleague Josh Selway would appreciate it more.)
• Actual Exchange Price: $92.40

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $50
• Reason: See above
• Actual Exchange Price: $74.55

Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $100
• Reason: There's no way my wife would let me do this for anything less than face value. We shop at the Gap … and Banana Republic … and Old Navy … a lot.
• Actual Exchange Price: $84

GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $25
• Reason: As I've mentioned before, I only play one game, and it's free.
• Actual Exchange Price: $87.15

Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $75
• Reason: A little more versatile than GME. Maybe I could pick up some CDs. Yes, I still buy CDs.
• Actual Exchange Price: $92.40

Applebee's [DineEquity Inc (NYSE:DIN)]:

• Minimum Exchange Price: $50
• Reason: I've never had a good meal here, so -- in a vacuum -- I'd probably part with a $100 gift card for $25. But Americans (including my brother-in-law) generally love Applebee's, so the whole regifting thing adds value.
• Actual Exchange Price: $79.80

Texas Roadhouse Inc (NASDAQ:TXRH):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $100
• Reason: No way I'm accepting anything less than face value. Have you had their bread?
• Actual Exchange Price: $75.60

RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $1
• Reason: Does this place still exist? (The answer, seemingly, is not for much longer.)
• Actual Exchange Price: $78.75

Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $100
• Reason: It's basically the same place as WMT, right?
• Actual Exchange Price: $96.60

All things considered, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.'s (NYSE:WMT) gift card exchange program delivers pretty good value, especially if you have strong opinions on various shopping establishments. Meanwhile, the retailer's shares continue to climb, and at $86.77, are sitting just south of their record high of $88.09 -- touched late last month.

I've revealed some semi-serious predictions for 2015, but I realize there's probably more value in real predictions. So here we go.

Ask any pundit what he sees for volatility going forward, and he'll say he expects volatility to rise over the next (N) months, where (N) equals "anything." As we've noted, it's both a silly and a sensible call. It's silly because not a soul out there says he expects volatility to drift going forward so long as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is in the mid-teens or lower at the time someone asks the question. It's sensible because, well, the futures curve almost always looks exactly as it does now (click chart to enlarge):

The market itself almost always expects higher volatility. If you really think VIX trends lower -- or even flatlines -- going forward, it makes more sense to just short VIX futures than announce your volatility bearishness. But I'm writing up my prediction here, so I'm going to go the "flat" route. I don't expect VIX to look all that different a year from now. I believe we have about another year or so left in this long-term, low-VIX regime.

That's not to say we sit in the mid-teens all year, though … far from it. We will see volatility spikes; we always see volatility spikes. One of these spikes will become the "real" turn. So, I guess my real prediction is that we're still a year or so away from a "real" turn. Everyone and their day-trading dentist expects Fed tightening this year. That's likely not the source of the volatility spikes we inevitably will see. That's simply because everyone knows it's likely to happen. The actual volatility spikes will occur thanks to something that we don't know or don't worry too much about right now.

A few years back it was fashionable to call every "new" market-moving story a "black swan." We collectively kind of overused and misused that term. I saw a recent list of potential "gray swans" somewhere -- basically stories that will potentially upset our apple cart. That's better, but it kind of misses the point, too. Again, if you see them ahead of time, they're not really black or gray swans.

So, my prediction is that it doesn't add much value to predict what stories come out of nowhere to zonk the 2015 market, and which stories (Russia, Greece, Oil, Fed, etc.) will sporadically "matter." Besides, why ruin the suspense?

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Analysts are weighing in today on cloud concern Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKAM), energy services provider Civeo Corp (NYSE:CVEO), and airline Virgin America Inc (NASDAQ:VA). Here's a quick look at today's brokerage notes on AKAM, CVEO, and VA.

• AKAM saw its price target boosted to $86 from $72 at D.A. Davidson, which also restated its "buy" opinion. The positive note is well-deserved, as the shares have advanced more than 35% in 2014 to rest at $63.79. Not surprisingly, most of the brokerage bunch is already behind Akamai Technologies, Inc. Fifteen of 19 covering analysts rate the stock a "strong buy," compared to four "holds" and not a single "sell." Plus, AKAM's consensus 12-month price target of $68.53 stands in territory not charted since September 2000.


• CVEO's price target was slashed to $6 from $10 at Susquehanna, which reiterated its "neutral" rating, as well. This development follows the company's decision to suspend its quarterly dividend payments and cut its workforce, while reducing its first-quarter and full-year revenue forecasts -- which has the shares down 40% ahead of the bell. It's already been a tough few months for Civeo Corp, which has shed 63.7% of its value since separating from Oil States International, Inc. (NYSE:OIS) in early June, to sit at $8.27. Meanwhile, bearish betting has picked up on Civeo Corp in the last couple weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio has spiked to 5.27 from 1.00 at the end of November.


• VA -- which has outperformed since going public in mid-November, advancing 57.5% to trade at $42.53 -- had its price target boosted to $53 from $42 at Cowen and Company. The brokerage firm likewise reaffirmed its "outperform" assessment. Given Virgin America Inc's technical track record, it shouldn't come as a shock to see optimism throughout the Street. Eighty percent of covering analysts rate the shares a "strong buy," with not one dubbing it a "sell." Also, during the last two weeks at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, traders have bought to open more than 11 VA calls for every put.

U.S. stocks are headed for another uninspiring session, weighed down by concerns about crude and Greece. Among the equities in focus are drugmakers Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation (NASDAQ:TKMR) and Neuroderm Ltd (NASDAQ:NDRM), as well as commodities concern Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR).

• TKMR -- which manufactures an Ebola drug -- is pointed 3% higher in pre-market action, amid reports of another suspected case of the virus in Scotland. It's been a wild ride for Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation in 2014, with the equity spanning a 24-point range. The shares flirted with the $30 region on a few occasions throughout the year, but since their last peak in early October, have shed more than half their value to sit at $13.86 -- just north of their 80-week moving average, which has supported pullbacks in 2014. Analysts remain upbeat, though, with five out of six offering up "buy" or better ratings, and not a "sell" in sight. Likewise, the consensus 12-month price target of $34.80 stands in uncharted territory for TKMR, and represents more than twice the stock's current price.


• NDRM is set to skyrocket 37% out of the gate today, thanks to encouraging data on its Parkinson's drug. The Wall Street freshman debuted at $9.45 on Nov. 14, and it's been all downhill from there, with the shares landing at $6.18 on Monday. In fact, the equity's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests at 32 -- just shy of oversold territory, suggesting a short-term rebound may have been in the cards. Nevertheless, all three analysts following Neuroderm Ltd deem it worthy of a "strong buy," and the average 12-month price target of $20.63 is more than twice NDRM's all-time high, and more than three times the equity's current price.


• Finally, PBR is headed for a 2% gain at the open, after the Brazil-run oil company said it will publish its third-quarter earnings -- already delayed twice amid a corruption scandal -- by the end of January. Yesterday, Aurelius Capital Management LP urged PBR bondholders to declare default due to the delayed earnings, which were required to be filed by Dec. 29 until the recent extension. Meanwhile, Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) said it has frozen payments on 23 contractors allegedly involved in the aforementioned scandal, which could implicate its employee pension fund. Amid the drama and waning oil prices, PBR shares have surrendered more than 47% in 2014, landing at $7.27 on Monday. In fact, the security has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 51 percentage points during the past three months.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is up 2% today to trade at $691.32, bringing its year-to-date advance to nearly 30%. Earlier, in fact, the stock topped out at $695 -- just south of its all-time high of $697.93, touched in late August. Not surprisingly, options traders have grown extremely bullish toward shares of the fast-casual restaurant chain.

Diving into the data, during the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open slightly more CMG calls than puts. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 1.16 ranks just 7 percentage points from a 12-month high, suggesting traders have displayed a healthier-than-usual appetite for bullish bets over bearish in recent weeks. To put that reading into perspective, the same ratio ended November at 0.69 -- with puts outweighing calls.

Looking more widely reveals that optimism toward CMG is by no means the consensus opinion. In fact, nearly half of the analysts covering the stock have handed out a tepid "hold" recommendation. What's more, the average 12-month price target of $720.83 stands just 3.3% above current trading levels. If Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) can sustain its run up the charts, a round of bullish brokerage notes could add fuel to its fire.

Analysts are weighing in today on automaker General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), professional services firm Fluor Corporation (NEW) (NYSE:FLR), and Internet giant Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Here's a quick look at today's brokerage notes on GM, FLR, and GOOGL.

• GM is up 2.7% today to trade at $34.66, after Barron's named it one of its top 10 picks for 2015 (subscription required), saying the company could double its earnings per share over the next three years. The prediction is in sharp contrast to General Motors Company's performance in 2014, as it has shed 15.2%. However, most analysts maintain a bullish outlook on the stock, with 54% of covering firms deeming it a "buy" or better. Not only that, but speculators have bought to open GM calls over puts at an annual-high rate in the past several months, per its 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 3.12. An unwinding of this optimism in the face of continued technical struggles could spell headwinds.


• Also making it on Barron's top 10 list is FLR, which has added 2.4% today to its perch at $61.96. This is a welcome change of pace for a stock that has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by over 14 percentage points in the last three months. Still, analyst sentiment is mostly positive, with the stock boasting 16 "buy" or better ratings, three "holds," and not a single "sell." Also, Fluor Corporation's consensus 12-month price target of $79.91 represents a 29% premium to its current trading level.


• Not only did GOOGL crack Barron's top 10 list for 2015, but it also received a positive note from RBC, which believes the company could introduce a dividend in the new year. This has Google Inc in the positive on the day, up 0.9% at $542.41, despite news that its email service is being blocked in China. Covering brokerage firms are looking past the fact that GOOGL is 3.3% below its year-to-date breakeven mark, with 84% handing out "buy" or better recommendations.

Analysts are weighing in today on biotech issue Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), as well as semiconductor concerns Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) and Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on GILD, MU, and MRVL.

• GILD is headed for a 2.1% gain out of the gate, thanks to a spate of upbeat analyst attention. Morgan Stanley upped its rating on GILD to "overweight" from "equal weight," and lifted its price target by $4 to $104. In addition, Barron's named Gilead Sciences, Inc. one of its top 10 picks for 2015 (subscription required). Last week was rough for GILD, as the stock surrendered 13.5% to settle at $93.79, due to competition concerns for its hepatitis C treatment. Still, most analysts remain in GILD's corner, as 14 out of 18 maintain "buy" or better opinions. Likewise, the average 12-month price target of $122 sits in uncharted territory for GILD, and represents a premium of 30% to the stock's current perch.


• MU was also on the aforementioned Barron's list, with the analysts predicting a gain of more than 40% over the next year, helped by rising demand for smart watches and wearable devices. The shares of Micron Technology, Inc. are headed 0.3% higher ahead of the open, after landing at $35 on Friday. Longer term, MU has skyrocketed nearly 61% in 2014, so it's no surprise to find most analysts are already optimistic. In fact, 17 out of 21 have doled out "buy" or better recommendations, and the consensus 12-month price target of $42.35 sits in territory not explored since mid-2001. In the options arena, however, speculators are buying to open MU puts over calls at a near-annual-high clip ahead of earnings on Wednesday, Jan. 7, as the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 0.71 -- higher than 97% of all other readings from the past year.


• Finally, MRVL scored a price-target hike to $20 from $19 at Needham, which also reiterated its "buy" endorsement. The shares of MRVL are just a hair's breadth from their year-to-date breakeven level, finishing at $14.37 on Friday. Analysts are divided when it comes to Marvell Technology Group Ltd., as nine have issued "buy" or better ratings, compared to 11 "hold" or worse suggestions. However, short-term options traders are more call-heavy than usual, as the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.29 sits just 6 percentage points from a 12-month low.

Analysts are weighing in today on semiconductor names Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA), RF Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:RFMD), and Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:SWKS). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on AMBA, RFMD, and SWKS.

• AMBA, which is best known for supplying video-processing chips to Wall Street newcomer GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO), soared 7.5% on Friday to settle at $55.94 -- bringing its year-to-date gain just north of 65%. However, the shares got hit this morning with a downgrade to "underperform" from "hold" at Needham, which cited lower gross margin expectations and a possible slowdown in revenue growth late next year. As such, Ambarella Inc is off nearly 5% ahead of the bell. This is likely music to the ears of short sellers. AMBA's short interest level rose 17% during the two most recent reporting periods, and now 28.5% of its float is dedicated to short interest. However, at the equity's typical daily trading rate, it would take fewer than three sessions to cover these bearish bets.


• Needham also lowered its opinion on RFMD, cutting the stock to "hold" from "buy" despite its 224% year-over-year advance to rest at $16.73. As a result, the shares are pointed 1.4% lower in electronic trading. More broadly speaking, the brokerage bunch is bullish toward RF Micro Devices, Inc. Nine out of 13 covering analysts rate the security a "buy" or better. What's more, RFMD's consensus 12-month price target of $17.37 stands at a premium to the stock's 12-year high of $16.76, touched on Friday.


• Finally, SWKS saw its rating reduced to "hold" from "buy" at Needham, as well. This, despite the shares' nearly 161% year-to-date advance to trade at $74.49. In the options pits, traders have displayed optimism toward Skyworks Solutions Inc. The stock's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 5.60 ranks in the 83rd percentile of its annual range. Ahead of the bell, SWKS is sitting 2% lower.

It's mid-holiday time, so it's time for our annual Christmas/New Year's-Festivus Holiday Reminder: Don't pay enormous attention to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) right now, as it may not paint a terribly accurate picture of volatility expectations for another week or so. That's because VIX indexes the implied volatility (IV) of actual S&P 500 Index (SPX) options. And those actual SPX options have actual expiration dates and fluctuate in price thanks to other variables besides volatility. Those variables are all "fixed," but one of them, time, is often not as fixed as meets the eye. In other words, some "time" is worth more than other "time."

Consider "Case A," a three-day option over any random time frame, vs. "Case B," a three-day option that includes a weekend. A volatility calculation assumes that time is fixed and three days is three days, but clearly the IV in Case A would appear greater than the IV in Case B. But it's really just that the option covers a more desirable time stretch in Case A than Case B. No trading likely means lower volatility. The only chance it won't is if there's a big gap on a Monday open, and that's a low-probability event.

This two-week holiday stretch is like one big, long, weekend holding period. Yes, it's possible to see some gaps, especially with all these stops and starts to the trading weeks. But it's not likely, given that it's a low-volume, slow trade to begin with. In VIX terms, that means that it will most definitely sit lower than it would in a normal stretch. Volatility expectations going forward may actually be higher.

Then again, maybe not. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) proxies VIX futures, and that doesn't have the same holiday (or lack thereof) cheer. And VXX has drifted lately. Rest assured, though, VIX futures always anticipate a future VIX lift -- and that hasn't changed (click chart to enlarge):

The VIX is dead. Long live the VIX.

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

U.S. stocks are on pace for a breather, as traders eye a snap election in Greece. Among the equities in focus are capital goods manufacturer Manitowoc Company Inc (NYSE:MTW), retailer American Apparel Inc (NYSEMKT:APP), and Big Board operator Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE:ICE).

• MTW is pointed 10% higher ahead of the bell, after Carl Icahn reported a 7.77% stake in the company, and said he's seeking a split of the firm's food-service equipment and cranes units. The shares of MTW have shed more than 10% in 2014, but after a recent bounce off support in the $16.50 region, finished last week atop their 10-week moving average -- a feat not accomplished since late July -- at $20.92. Despite the equity's longer-term struggles, option players have been upping the bullish ante in recent weeks. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day call/put volume ratio has ascended to 5.17 -- higher than three-quarters of all other readings from the past year. In other words, speculators have bought to open Manitowoc Company Inc calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip lately.


• APP is set to jump 2% higher out of the gate, on reports that British firm Lion Capital is urging the company to explore a sale. Earlier this month, American Apparel Inc allegedly rejected a $1.40-per-share bid from Irving Place Capital, though rumors of the pursuit sent the equity soaring -- and out of penny-stock territory. APP, which settled at $1.06 on Friday, could benefit from a round of short-covering, should the bears hit the exits. Short interest accounts for 12.2% of the stock's total available float, representing nearly 13 sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at APP's average pace of trading.


• Finally, ICE is allegedly mulling a sale or spinoff of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), sources told the New York Post. The company is apparently laying the groundwork to unload the NYSE as early as next year, which could result in the closure of the famous trading floor. On the charts, ICE has been chasing its early January (and record) highs for the latter half of 2014, but at $221.88, remains 1.4% below its year-to-date breakeven. Option traders have been buying Intercontinental Exchange Inc puts over calls at a faster-than-usual pace, either to gamble on or hedge against a pullback. The stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 3.88 ranks in the 86th percentile of its annual range.

Like sector peer 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), 3-D printing issue Stratasys, Ltd. (NASDAQ:SSYS) is charging higher this afternoon, up 4.1% at $84.41. Year-to-date, however, the latter has tumbled roughly 37%. A look at Wall Street reveals that this longer-term technical trend has translated into high levels of pessimism -- in the options pits and beyond.

For starters, during the last 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), SSYS has racked up a put/call volume ratio of 0.69 -- higher than two-thirds of all other readings from the last year. In other words, traders have shown an unusually strong preference for long puts over calls in recent months.

If that's not enough, short interest on SSYS spiked more than 24% during the two most recent reporting periods. As such, short interest now accounts for 21.7% of the equity's total float, which would take more than six sessions to cover, at typical daily trading levels.

It seems the only ones not on SSYS' bearish bandwagon are analysts. Fourteen out of 18 brokerage firms covering the shares have handed out "buy" or better ratings, versus four "holds" and not a single "sell." Plus, the stock's consensus 12-month price target of $129.83 sits in territory not explored since mid-September, and represents a nearly 54% premium to the security's current perch.

While today's rally is impressive, it isn't altogether unexpected -- Stratasys, Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:SSYS) 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 31 sits near "oversold" territory. Should the equity resume its prevailing downtrend, a round of downgrades and/or price-target cuts could exacerbate selling pressure.