The already high (on a relative basis) CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) got significantly higher on Wednesday. Again, it's kind of unusual given the holiday week and the fact that realized volatility is rather low. Smart money? Usually not, but we'll see. We'll also cover it more extensively next week when everyone's back at work. For now? Football! Playoffs!

I put each of this weekend's NFL games through my own numbers, and then simulated them on the "Madden NFL" video game many times each and adjusted the Madden settings a bit. Anyway, here we go:

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers

• Panthers -6.5, Total 38 (Vegas)
• Panthers -2.21, Total 41.7 (Me)
• Panthers -4.44, Total 41.8 (Madden)

My numbers are purely objective and unadjusted for the fact that Carson Palmer and then Drew Stanton QBed the Cardinals for most of the year, but Ryan Lindley will QB them in the playoffs. Madden did have Lindley, though. Either way, it suggests the Panthers are a little high here.

That's my subjective opinion, also. I see Bruce Arians as just about the best coach since 2002 at adding value behind the actual numbers, albeit in a two-and-a-half year sample (I give him half credit for the 2012 Colts). The Panthers' four-game win streak looked great, but it included three games vs. the terrible NFC South and one over the flailing Browns. It's almost a "fooled by randomness" situation -- someone had to emerge "hot" from the NFC South.

I'm less sold on the over. If the Cards cover, it's likely because the game becomes a total grind.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Steelers -3, Total 46 (Vegas)
• Steelers -1.54, Total 54.42 (Me)
• Ravens -5.51, Total 43.37 (Madden)

It's pretty automatic for Steelers-Ravens to open at three points in favor of the home team. Feels like they're always playing each other, and both always good. My numbers have suggested high totals for the Steelers all year, and have not particularly loved them as a side. Conversely, they've loved the Ravens. Madden really loved the Ravens; they covered about two-thirds of the time.

On the other hand, this game fails the eye test. The Steelers finished the season well, while the Ravens looked pretty bad. I'll still say Ravens and under.

Speaking of the Harbaugh brothers ... Jim Harbaugh vs. 7 years, $5 million per year base salary, plus incentives -- I bring this one up because Bloomberg had a debate on whether any coach is worth this much. It's a very easy answer: Yes. There's no guarantee Harbaugh is that coach. But it makes 100% financial sense for a big, brand-name college football program to pay up for what everyone assumes is an elite coach. There's a tidal wave of revenue in college football and there's a huge economic difference between being a non-bowl/minor bowl program (Michigan now) vs. a big bowl/playoff team (Michigan hoping in the future). And, given there's an artificially fixed low cost for talent (players), where else should they invest the money? You can only upgrade the facilities so much.

I could use the same logic to say that college coaches should make way more than pro coaches, setting aside that it's not really the original purpose of an institute of higher learning (wink wink, nod nod). We're talking pure dollars here. Nick Saban produces considerably more marginal revenue for Alabama than Bill Belichick does for the Patriots. Not even close.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

• Colts -3.5, Total 49 (Vegas)
• Colts -2.83, Total 46.48 (Me)
• Colts -1.32, Total 41.8 (Madden)

I have the point spread on the other side of the key number, but given the margin of error and the fact I'm sure I'll revise my methodology 10 times before next season, that's not significant enough to be noteworthy. Plus, neither my formula nor Madden factors in the Andy Dalton "Deer in the Shiny Headlights Effect." Plus, AJ Green might not play. I have this thought, really far in the back of my mind, that Andy Dalton is almost exactly where Eli Manning was before he got incredibly hot in the 2007 Super Bowl run.

I do show the total a little high, and Madden thinks it's very high.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

• Cowboys -6.5, Total 48 (Vegas)
• Cowboys -3.12, Total 44.84 (Me)
• Cowboys -6.29, Total 52.93 (Madden)

My system has over-liked the Lions defense all season. They're good, but not sure they're as good as I think. The Cowboys are on fire since Thanksgiving, especially on offense, which makes taking the under a tough proposition. The Lions maybe need to keep the game under control with pace. If the spread gets over 7, I'd like the Lions, but I'm pretty indifferent at 6.5. I'd lean under, but only at 50 and above.

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Much like The Ohio State Buckeyes, the major market indexes are set to start 2015 on a high note. Among the equities in focus are automaker General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), oil-and-gas issue Linn Energy LLC (NASDAQ:LINE), and casino concern Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS).

• GM is kicking off 2015 how it spent most of last year: issuing recalls. The Detroit darling issued a trio of new recalls involving nearly 84,000 pickup trucks and SUVs, due to potentially faulty ignition switches. General Motors Company surrendered nearly 15% in 2014, compared to the S&P 500 Index's (SPX) 11.4% rally, pressured beneath its 10- and 20-month moving averages. The equity, docked at $34.91, is currently battling the latter of these trendlines, and a series of downgrades or a reversal in sentiment among options traders could smack the shares lower. Currently, seven out of 13 analysts maintain "buy" or better ratings, and bullish betting on the major exchanges is near fever pitch. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.27 stands higher than 92% of all other readings from the past year.


• LINE is bracing for a 5.7% drop out of the gate, and will likely explore record lows in single-digit territory. In the wake of crude oil's plunge, the firm today said it more than halved its annual budget for oil and natural gas spending. In addition, Linn Energy LLC slashed its annual dividend to $1.25 from $2.90 per share. LINE has been a broad-market laggard, to say the least, underperforming the SPX by about 66 percentage points during the past three months. The stock touched an all-time low of $9.17 in mid-December, and finished not far off that on Wednesday, at $10.13. Against this backdrop, it's not surprising to find put buying is on the incline, as the equity's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 2.05 registers in the 85th percentile of its annual range.


• Finally, LVS is pointed modestly lower in pre-market action, on reports that calendar-year gambling revenue in Macau declined for the first time in 2014, with Decembers 30.4% plunge marking the seventh straight month-over-month drop. On the charts, LVS dropped almost 27% in 2014, with rebound attempts stymied by its 10- and 20-week moving averages. The shares -- which finished at $58.16 on Wednesday -- could be at risk for negative analyst notes, as eight out of 14 brokerage firms uphold "strong buy" opinions, with not a "sell" in sight. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $71.16 sits in territory not charted since August.

Analysts are weighing in today on home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY), cable provider Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ:CMCSA), and semiconductor firm Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:SWKS). Here's a quick look at today's brokerage notes on BBBY, CMCSA, and SWKS.

• Cancaccord Genuity upgraded BBBY to "buy" from "hold" -- and raised its price target to $91 from $66 -- citing strong sales momentum for the retailer. On the charts, the shares are down nearly 5% year-over-year, but have been in a steady uptrend since hitting an annual low of $54.96 in late June to now perch at $76.17. This puts Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. within striking distance of its all-time peak, located at $80.82. If the stock continues to run higher, or if the company reports solid earnings next Thursday, Jan. 8, another round of bullish brokerage notes could materialize. Over two-thirds of covering analysts rate BBBY a "hold" or worse, and the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $67.90 resides below current trading levels.


• CMCSA saw its price target boosted to $56 from $52 at Macquarie, which also reiterated its "neutral" opinion. Nevertheless, the new price target sits below the stock's current perch at $58.01, as well as the security's record peak of $59.30, tagged on Wednesday. Over the last year, shares of Comcast Corporation have gained nearly 13%, ushered higher by their 40-week moving average. This technical performance has caught the eye of option bulls. During the last 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), CMCSA has racked up a call/put volume ratio of 6.04 -- with roughly six calls bought to open for every put. What's more, this ratio ranks in the 82nd percentile of its annual range.


• D.A. Davidson raised its price target on SWKS to $85 from $75, and reaffirmed its "buy" recommendation. This isn't surprising, considering the shares have advanced more than 165% over the last 12 months, and have outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 30.4 percentage points during the previous 60 sessions. In fact, SWKS notched a decade-plus peak of $74.97 on Dec. 23. Taking a step back, the brokerage crowd is largely behind Skyworks Solutions Inc, with 11 analysts handing out "strong buy" ratings, compared to three "holds" and not a single "sell" -- optimism that's reflected in the security's options pits. However, the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $77.42 represents a slim premium to the current price of $72.71. If SWKS can sustain its upward momentum, additional price-target hikes could be forthcoming.

A number of biotech stocks are rallying this afternoon, including Stemline Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:STML). At last check, shares of the cancer treatment developer are up nearly 9% at $17.22 -- but remain 12.2% lower year-to-date. Meanwhile, a look around Wall Street reveals little in the way of a consensus opinion.

On the one hand, the brokerage bunch is extremely bullish toward STML, with 100% of covering analysts doling out a "strong buy" rating. Additionally, the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $54.60 more than triples the current stock price. Last week, Aegis Capital cut STML's target price by $7 to $68 -- but that still represents a premium of almost 50% to STML's record high of $47.25, touched last October.

On the flip side, short sellers have been betting on downside for STML. Roughly one-tenth of the security's float is sold short, which would take about nine days to buy back, at typical daily trading volumes. In fact, current short interest levels are just a chip-shot away from the all-time peak touched earlier this month.

Looking ahead, Stemline Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:STML) is scheduled to make an appearance at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Jan. 15 in San Francisco. This event could provide a catalyst, either to the upside or downside. What's more, an ensuing shift in sentiment -- in the form of either bearish brokerage notes or short-covering activity -- could further intensify any such move.

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) needs to innovate, just like all companies. But I think investors and media members need to pump the brakes a bit on their expectations. If Twitter does too much too soon, it could ruin the product that people have come to enjoy. I love Twitter as much as anyone. I'm on it constantly. But even I have become annoyed with the myriad changes I've seen throughout this year. For a while there it seemed like my Twitter had an update daily. Not all the changes were bad, per se, but they were too frequent. Twitter was trying to please shareholders, trying to do too much, too quickly. And by doing so, it jeopardized its identity.

TWTR doesn't need to fire CEO Dick Costolo. Twitter doesn't need to think about selling itself, or changing the direction of its company. And it doesn't need to worry about diving into virtual reality or anything remotely close to that. Twitter doesn't need to make any monumental changes. At least not yet. It just needs to keep being Twitter.

People enjoy Twitter for its simplicity; a live feed of short messages that you can personalize to your liking. One second you could be reading a serious tweet about the Dow Jones' latest movement, the next second you could be reading … whatever this is:

.@Google am women mammals?

— rob delaney (@robdelaney) November 11, 2014

Twitter is a great product that has a very useful place in our society. Journalists use it all day, every day. It has helped writers launch their careers and has helped brands grow. Twitter's design has allowed users of all kinds to take advantage of it in all kinds of ways. However, great products don't always make great stocks, as has been the case with Twitter.

Since going public in November of last year, TWTR shares have been all over the place. Now, it's normal for young stocks to see volatility, but the sentiment on the Street surrounding Twitter has seemed to change each week -- one second it's the next big tech stock, the next it's just another social media fad.

For the most part, though, Twitter has struggled on the charts, dropping 42.6% year-to-date, and underperforming the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by a painful 72 percentage points in the last three months. Clearly, Twitter needs to do something. But instead of overhauling its entire platform or completely giving up -- which have both been suggested by analysts and media members alike -- Twitter should keep getting better at what it's already good at: providing a useful, simple tool to a loyal user base.

Twitter's black eye has been its lack of user growth, with shareholders scoffing at its last earnings report in October. But Twitter's success doesn't depend on user growth -- it depends on getting the most out of the users it already has, and allowing advertisers unique ways of reaching them. Oh, and by the way, it's doing that -- its ad revenue continues to increase.

The "major" changes that Twitter should make are the things most people don't see or even understand -- algorithms that help marketers, increasing exposure for brands, things like that. If I get on and think that I accidentally signed on to Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), things are going in the wrong direction. It hasn't all been bad, though. I felt that the "buy" button was an interesting tweak that could lead to larger possibilities, without disrupting the user experience. There are some other areas where small changes could make a big difference, allowing Twitter to innovate while maintaining its simplicity. One idea is to allow even more personalization on users' timelines, perhaps by allowing them to create different feeds for different types of handles -- i.e. feeds for "Comedians" and "Sports Writers." Users can already create "lists" which they can name and add handles that fit whatever criteria they like. The problem is that maneuvering between lists is messy -- you have to cycle through several screens just to view your different lists. Streamlining this process would provide a better experience.

The other part of Twitter that could be updated is the search function. One of the coolest aspects of Twitter is that it is allows you to see what others around the world are saying in real time. However, it doesn't seem like the search function has been a major focus for Twitter. Updating this part of the platform would make Twitter a much more powerful tool, without disrupting the main user experience.

Obviously there are plenty of other things Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) could do to enhance the user experience, but those don't need to include selling itself or completely changing the direction of its business. Maybe down the road it could consider those possibilities and others, and maybe then it could get rid of Dick Costolo if he still hasn't delivered. But for now, let's give Twitter some more time to be Twitter, and see what happens.

Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA), which was recently named the Yahoo Finance 2014 "Company of the Year," has been a technical beast. Year-to-date, shares of the athletic apparel maker have gained 57.1% to land at $68.53. However, not everyone has joined the stock's bullish bandwagon.

The one place where optimism is evident is in UA's options pits. During the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has accumulated a call/put volume ratio of 2.08 -- with traders buying to open more than two calls for every put. Furthermore, this ratio ranks in the bullishly skewed 67th percentile of its annual range.

Short sellers, however, aren't sold on UA. In fact, 6.8% of the stock's float is sold short, which would take roughly seven sessions to buy back, at average daily trading volumes. This potentially paves the way for a short-covering rally, assuming the shares can sustain their long-term trek higher.

Likewise, nearly half of the analysts covering Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) rate it a "hold" or "sell." Plus, the security's average 12-month price target of $72.43 stands at a slim premium to its current perch. This leaves the door wide open for a round of upgrades and/or price-target hikes to usher in a fresh wave of buying power.

U.S. stocks are poised to end the year on a high note, despite a steeper retreat for crude oil and a higher-than-forecast rise in weekly jobless claims. Among the equities in focus are retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF), drugmaker NephroGenex Inc (NASDAQ:NRX), and touch interface developer Neonode, Inc (NASDAQ:NEON).

• ANF is pointed 1.5% higher ahead of the bell, thanks to a legal win. Three months after one judge rejected a settlement challenging the pay of former CEO Michael Jeffries, another federal judge recommended approval of the revised terms, which she said "confer a substantial benefit" upon Abercrombie & Fitch Co. shareholders. On Dec. 8, the session before announcing the retirement of the controversial CEO, ANF was sitting in five-year-low territory at $26.19. Since then, however, the stock has tacked on roughly 10% to land at $28.76 on Tuesday. Still, option players remain wary, with put buying hitting fever pitch over the past two weeks on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Specifically, ANF sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 8.15 on the exchanges -- an annual high.


• NRX is set to triple in value out of the gate this morning, after settling at $4.65 yesterday. Bolstering the stock is a round of upbeat drug data, after its pyridorin drug was found to be cardiac-safe in treating diabetic nephropathy. Nephrogenex Inc debuted at $12.12 in mid-February, but has since shed roughly 62% of its value, with recent rebound attempts halted by its 32-week moving average. In light of today's anticipated jump, though, the equity is poised to hit all-time highs north of $15.


• Finally, NEON jumped nearly 22% yesterday, and is set to add another 12% at the open, amid hopes for a solid showing at next month's highly anticipated Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Specifically, Cowen & Co. yesterday said Neonode, Inc is expected to debut touch-screen technology for PC products at the event. Should NEON extend its advance on the charts, the stock will take likely take out its 200-day moving average for the first time since March -- and could spook the shorts. Short interest accounts for 26.6% of NEON's total available float, representing 19 sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at the stock's average pace of trading -- plenty of fuel for a short-covering rally.

Analysts are upwardly revising their ratings today on oncology specialist Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARIA), biopharmaceutical firm Cytokinetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CYTK), and mobile carry-out platform GrubHub Inc (NYSE:GRUB). Here's a quick look at today's bullish brokerage notes on ARIA, CYTK, and GRUB.

• Late Tuesday, JMP Securities raised its price target on ARIA to $8 from $7, and reiterated its "outperform" rating. The new target implies expected upside of 17.3% from yesterday's close at $6.82 -- which, for the record, means Ariad Pharmaceuticals, Inc. finished Tuesday completely flat for 2014. Despite the stock's lack of progress this calendar year -- and a recent downgrade from Credit Suisse -- most analysts remain in ARIA's corner. The stock sports 60% "strong buy" ratings from brokerage firms, with not a single "sell" to be found.


• CYTK has jumped more than 7% in pre-market trading, aided by a price-target hike to $18 from $13 at Roth Capital. The brokerage firm apparently expects Cytokinetics, Inc. shares to gain nearly 161% from Tuesday's close at $6.90, though the stock has added just 6.2% over the last 12 months. In fact, CYTK only made its way into positive year-to-date territory on Monday, as traders cheered reports of an investment from Japanese firm Astellas Pharma. During the short term, a rush to cover by some of the weaker bearish hands could help CYTK extend its recent rally. The stock's short-interest ratio stands at 5.3, indicating more than a week's worth of pent-up buying pressure, at CTYK's average daily trading volume.


• After yesterday's close, Barrington Research upgraded GRUB to "outperform" from "market perform," with a $43 price target -- roughly 20% north of the stock's Tuesday finish at $35.87. GrubHub Inc is up more than 3% ahead of the bell, which should help the shares extend a slim lead over resistance at their 80-day moving average (currently located at $35.72). While GRUB has floundered in recent months, and is now trading below its April 4 debut price of $40, the stock still has plenty of support from the brokerage community. Eight out of 10 analysts call GRUB a "buy" or better, and the average 12-month price target of $45.44 is less than 1 point south of the stock's Aug. 13 all-time high at $45.80.

I forgot to write down one of my predictions yesterday. So here we go: I bet realized volatility (RV) lifts in 2015, at least from these levels.

FWIW $SPX 5 day historical volatility at 2.6% from 30% 2 wks ago

— Chris McKhann (@volatrade) December 29, 2014

A 16 volatility equals about a 1% move on a typical day. So, 2.6 volatility means something like a move of 0.15% or less on two-thirds of days. In other words, about 3 S&P 500 Index (SPX) points. Ouch. Now, in all fairness, it was a holiday week that included a half session and a low-volume "island" Friday that coincided with Boxing Day, and we know that no one trades on Boxing Day while returning presents and watching English soccer.

So let's say that "real" RV is twice that high. Heck, let's say it's three times that high. Call it 8 volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) itself is 16. That's twice the level of an adjusted RV guess. Yes, they are two different animals. RV looks backward, implied volatility prices on forward expectations. There's no arb, and there's theoretically no relationship. Except, in reality, there is a relationship. VIX does a better job predicting what already happened than what happens next.

In my book, I ran numbers to compare how well VIX correlated to backward-looking realized volatility, and other numbers comparing how well VIX correlated to ultimately simultaneous volatility. For the latter part, that would involve taking today's VIX (16) and then comparing it to realized volatility over the next 30 calendar days. Obviously, we can only do that in hindsight.

Long story short, VIX from inception to about 2008 (when I wrote my book) had about a 0.85 correlation to backward-looking RV (both 25-day and 30-day, for what it's worth). Simultaneous VIX had a 0.74 correlation to RV. That's still strong, but not quite as strong.

That's a longer-winded way of saying it's possible VIX is accurately predicting an uptick in volatility, but the more noteworthy takeaway is that it's unusually overpriced vs. the RV we can see on our screens right now. So, news flash: the market expects an uptick in volatility. Unscientifically, I'd say VIX has called 40 of the last six RV spikes. But you never know.

What I do know is that's a wrap for 2014. Have a great New Year's Eve and a happy and healthy New Year's, and let's go get them in 2015!

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

For those of you who got lousy gift cards this holiday season, you're in luck: Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) just announced a gift card trade-in program. Basically, just head to WMT's CardCash website with that $50 gift card you have no idea how you'd spend, plug in the card number, and receive a WMT gift card worth …

Well, it depends. The world's largest retailer isn't providing a dollar-for-dollar exchange, and the amount you'll receive depends on the gift card you're trading. So, for example, a $100 Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) gift card may net you only $75 in "WMT bucks" (actually, when I ran the numbers through CardCash, the actual amount was $72.45). According to the site, customers can get up to 97% of a gift card's face value.

This sounds like a less-than-compelling deal, but put it in perspective: If you get a gift card you don't want, you can either 1) not use it and get nothing in return, 2) regift it to someone who might appreciate it (or might resent you for it), or 3) buy something you don't need. I'll take the exchange, any day of the week.

Also, I don't blame WMT for not offering a dollar-for-dollar exchange. Some gift cards are inherently more valuable than others, depending on the owner. So why not provide the terms of the transaction and let the consumer decide for himself? I'm all about empowering the individual.

Moving along, I was curious to see how generous this program is. Or, more specifically, how well WMT knows me as a customer, and how much it would take to pry a gift card for retailers X, Y, and Z out of my hands. So here are a number of stores and restaurants, the number at which I'd be willing to exchange a $100 gift card, my rationale, and most importantly, what WMT was actually offering at the time of publication.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $50
• Reason: I'm no longer 15 years old. (That said, perhaps my colleague Josh Selway would appreciate it more.)
• Actual Exchange Price: $92.40

American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $50
• Reason: See above
• Actual Exchange Price: $74.55

Gap Inc (NYSE:GPS):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $100
• Reason: There's no way my wife would let me do this for anything less than face value. We shop at the Gap … and Banana Republic … and Old Navy … a lot.
• Actual Exchange Price: $84

GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $25
• Reason: As I've mentioned before, I only play one game, and it's free.
• Actual Exchange Price: $87.15

Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $75
• Reason: A little more versatile than GME. Maybe I could pick up some CDs. Yes, I still buy CDs.
• Actual Exchange Price: $92.40

Applebee's [DineEquity Inc (NYSE:DIN)]:

• Minimum Exchange Price: $50
• Reason: I've never had a good meal here, so -- in a vacuum -- I'd probably part with a $100 gift card for $25. But Americans (including my brother-in-law) generally love Applebee's, so the whole regifting thing adds value.
• Actual Exchange Price: $79.80

Texas Roadhouse Inc (NASDAQ:TXRH):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $100
• Reason: No way I'm accepting anything less than face value. Have you had their bread?
• Actual Exchange Price: $75.60

RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $1
• Reason: Does this place still exist? (The answer, seemingly, is not for much longer.)
• Actual Exchange Price: $78.75

Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT):

• Minimum Exchange Price: $100
• Reason: It's basically the same place as WMT, right?
• Actual Exchange Price: $96.60

All things considered, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc.'s (NYSE:WMT) gift card exchange program delivers pretty good value, especially if you have strong opinions on various shopping establishments. Meanwhile, the retailer's shares continue to climb, and at $86.77, are sitting just south of their record high of $88.09 -- touched late last month.

I've revealed some semi-serious predictions for 2015, but I realize there's probably more value in real predictions. So here we go.

Ask any pundit what he sees for volatility going forward, and he'll say he expects volatility to rise over the next (N) months, where (N) equals "anything." As we've noted, it's both a silly and a sensible call. It's silly because not a soul out there says he expects volatility to drift going forward so long as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is in the mid-teens or lower at the time someone asks the question. It's sensible because, well, the futures curve almost always looks exactly as it does now (click chart to enlarge):

The market itself almost always expects higher volatility. If you really think VIX trends lower -- or even flatlines -- going forward, it makes more sense to just short VIX futures than announce your volatility bearishness. But I'm writing up my prediction here, so I'm going to go the "flat" route. I don't expect VIX to look all that different a year from now. I believe we have about another year or so left in this long-term, low-VIX regime.

That's not to say we sit in the mid-teens all year, though … far from it. We will see volatility spikes; we always see volatility spikes. One of these spikes will become the "real" turn. So, I guess my real prediction is that we're still a year or so away from a "real" turn. Everyone and their day-trading dentist expects Fed tightening this year. That's likely not the source of the volatility spikes we inevitably will see. That's simply because everyone knows it's likely to happen. The actual volatility spikes will occur thanks to something that we don't know or don't worry too much about right now.

A few years back it was fashionable to call every "new" market-moving story a "black swan." We collectively kind of overused and misused that term. I saw a recent list of potential "gray swans" somewhere -- basically stories that will potentially upset our apple cart. That's better, but it kind of misses the point, too. Again, if you see them ahead of time, they're not really black or gray swans.

So, my prediction is that it doesn't add much value to predict what stories come out of nowhere to zonk the 2015 market, and which stories (Russia, Greece, Oil, Fed, etc.) will sporadically "matter." Besides, why ruin the suspense?

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Analysts are weighing in today on cloud concern Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKAM), energy services provider Civeo Corp (NYSE:CVEO), and airline Virgin America Inc (NASDAQ:VA). Here's a quick look at today's brokerage notes on AKAM, CVEO, and VA.

• AKAM saw its price target boosted to $86 from $72 at D.A. Davidson, which also restated its "buy" opinion. The positive note is well-deserved, as the shares have advanced more than 35% in 2014 to rest at $63.79. Not surprisingly, most of the brokerage bunch is already behind Akamai Technologies, Inc. Fifteen of 19 covering analysts rate the stock a "strong buy," compared to four "holds" and not a single "sell." Plus, AKAM's consensus 12-month price target of $68.53 stands in territory not charted since September 2000.


• CVEO's price target was slashed to $6 from $10 at Susquehanna, which reiterated its "neutral" rating, as well. This development follows the company's decision to suspend its quarterly dividend payments and cut its workforce, while reducing its first-quarter and full-year revenue forecasts -- which has the shares down 40% ahead of the bell. It's already been a tough few months for Civeo Corp, which has shed 63.7% of its value since separating from Oil States International, Inc. (NYSE:OIS) in early June, to sit at $8.27. Meanwhile, bearish betting has picked up on Civeo Corp in the last couple weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio has spiked to 5.27 from 1.00 at the end of November.


• VA -- which has outperformed since going public in mid-November, advancing 57.5% to trade at $42.53 -- had its price target boosted to $53 from $42 at Cowen and Company. The brokerage firm likewise reaffirmed its "outperform" assessment. Given Virgin America Inc's technical track record, it shouldn't come as a shock to see optimism throughout the Street. Eighty percent of covering analysts rate the shares a "strong buy," with not one dubbing it a "sell." Also, during the last two weeks at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, traders have bought to open more than 11 VA calls for every put.