Earnings Season Highlights

Refresh your browser for the latest updates!
A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 11, 2019 at 10:19 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

FAANG stocks Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) received analyst upgrades this morning, and the shares of both tech companies are trading higher as a result. We'll take a closer look at AAPL and FB below.

For Apple, BofA-Merrill Lynch upgraded the iPhone maker to "buy" from "hold" and boosted its price target to $210 from $180. The brokerage firm in its note cited a strong reversal in inventory overhang for iPhones and a slight acceleration in the company's services business. What's more, the note also suggested Apple could lower prices and take back some market share.

AAPL shares are trading up 2.2% today at $176.67, setting them up for their best close since early December. The tech concern's year-to-date lead is nearly at 11%, and options traders today could be betting on more upside. That is, call volume is already running at three times the expected pace, and new positions are being opened at the March 177.50 call.

Meanwhile, FB shares are also gaining today, up 2.2% at $173.36. This has the social media security pacing for its best finish since August. Sparking the upside was an upgrade to "buy" from "neutral" at Nomura Instinet, which lifted its price target to $215 from $172.

Facebook call options are also popular in early trading, running at twice the expected rate. More than 11,000 contracts have already crossed at the March 175 call, and there's also been notable activity at the March 180 call. Interestingly, the March 150 put is one of the top open interest positions, and data shows a mix of buy- and sell-to-open activity here. 

Published on Mar 11, 2019 at 10:27 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Shoe giant Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) is slightly elevated this morning, up 0.9% at $85.53, after Cowen and Company analyst John Kernan hiked his price target on the stock to $92 from $90. Further, Kernan explained that compared to competitor Adidas, Nike does well with its tightly controlled supply launches, which drive consumer engagement and full-price sales.

Nike stock touched a record high of $87.99 on March 4, before pulling back to the 30-day moving average. The blue chip has added more than 15% so far in 2019, and has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 10 percentage points in the past three months.

Against this backdrop -- and ahead of the company's next earnings release, slated for Thursday, March 21 --  short-term NKE options players have rarely been more call-heavy during the past 12 months. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.67, which sits in the 21st percentile of its annual range.
 

Circling back to analyst sentiment, 14 of 20 covering firms already issue "buy" or "strong buy" recommendations on the stock. On the other hand, the average 12-month price target of $87.73 is just a stone's throw from current levels, suggesting additional NKE price-target hikes could be on the horizon.

Published on Mar 11, 2019 at 10:33 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
  • Quantitative Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) last week dropped every single session, marking the first time the indexes suffered a simultaneous five-day losing streak since November 2016, just before the presidential election. Below, we take a look at how the stock market barometers have fared after sinking in unison -- which also happened right around the March 2009 bottom -- and what Wall Street might expect in the next few months.

Since 1972, there have been just 56 times when the trio of indexes dropped five straight days simultaneously, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. The longest simultaneous losing streak was in August 1982, at eight days.

Although stocks are down again this morning, it's encouraging that the indexes tend to outperform after these signals. One week later, the DJI was up 1.06%, on average, and higher two-thirds of the time. That's handily better than its average anytime one-week return of 0.17% (looking at data since 1972), with a win rate of 56%. That outperformance continues one month later, with the blue-chip index up an impressive 2.2%, on average -- roughly three times the norm -- with a healthy win rate of 66%.

Dow after indexes 5day streak

Likewise, the S&P averaged a gain of 1.2% one week after signals -- about 10 times its average anytime one-week return of 0.17% -- and was higher 66% of the time. A month later, the SPX was up 2.31%, on average, with a win rate of 70%. That's compared to an average anytime one-month gain of just 0.69%, with 61% positive.

spx after indexes 5day streak

The Nasdaq, too, tends to bounce back strong -- though not quite as strong as the Dow and S&P 500. The tech-rich index was up 0.79%, on average, a week after signals, with a 59% win rate, compared to an average anytime one-week gain of 0.22%. A month out, the Nasdaq was 1.54% higher, on average, compared to 0.93% anytime. However, three months later, the Nasdaq was up just 1.73%, on average -- underperforming its average anytime three-month gain of 2.84%.

nasdaq after indexes 5day streak

Aside from relatively lackluster Nasdaq returns three months after signals, another thing worth noting is the Standard Deviation across the board. Specifically, Standard Deviation runs hotter than usual after signals, as you can see from the images above, suggesting that higher volatility could be on the horizon for Wall Street in the short term. This could especially be true if the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rallies above 18, as noted by Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone in this week's Monday Morning Outlook.

Published on Mar 11, 2019 at 10:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Video Content
  • Editor's Pick
  • Trader Content

Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone stopped by CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, where he discussed the Fed's dovish stance and why it could result in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) moving past the stubborn 2,800 mark.

To watch Todd's full remarks, click on the video player below. And to stay up to date with all of his market insights as they break, make sure you're on the list for free email delivery of Todd's weekly Monday Morning Outlook column.

Published on Mar 11, 2019 at 11:19 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (NYSE:DO) have made a beeline lower since topping out above the round $20 mark back in October. And while the $9 neighborhood has served as a floor during this recent decline -- the lowest the stock ever traded was $8.78 on Jan. 2 -- Goldman Sachs thinks there's more downside to come, with the brokerage firm initiating coverage on the energy shares with a "sell" rating and $8 price target.

Most analysts are already skeptical of Diamond Offshore Drilling, with three-quarters of those in coverage maintaining a "hold" or worse recommendation on the stock. However, the average 12-month price target of $12.01 is a 22.6% premium to current trading levels.

This pessimism is seen elsewhere on Wall Street, with short interest surging 27.2% in the two most recent reporting periods to 23.4 million shares -- the most since mid-September. These bearish bets represent 17% of DO stock's available float, or 8.9 times the average daily pace of trading.

Short-term options traders, on the other hand, are more call-skewed than usual, per DO's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.34 -- in the 6th annual percentile. The March 12.50 call is home to peak front-month open interest of more than 5,000 contracts, and data from the major options exchanges confirms buy-to-open activity at this out-of-the-money strike.

Given Diamond Offshore Drilling's longer-term technical struggles, the activity at this out-of-the-money strike could be a result of shorts initiating an options hedge against any upside risk. Whatever the reason, DO shares were last seen up 2.5% at $9.66, rising as oil prices gain on reports Saudi Arabia may lower crude oil exports next month. Nevertheless, the stock is still staring up at its 50-day moving average, which has served as a stiff ceiling this year.

do stock daily price chart on march 11

Published on Mar 8, 2019 at 1:11 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

U.S. stocks are in the red for a fifth straight session, as traders jeer an ugly February payrolls report and a steep drop in Chinese exports. What's more, one China-based stock could extend its recent downtrend, if history is any indicator. Below, we'll take a look at why short-term bears may want to target Chinese e-commerce concern JD.com Inc (NASDAQ:JD).

After a strong rally off its November lows below $20, JD stock is pacing for a 6.3% drop this week. What's more, the equity just came within one standard deviation of its 52-week moving average, after a lengthy stretch below this trendline. There have been three other signals of this kind in the last 15 years, after which JD was lower three months later each time, averaging a loss of 22.2%, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. From the stock's current perch at $26.88 -- down 3.5% today -- a similar drop would put JD at $20.91, back around the aforementioned lows.

JD stock chart march 8

An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could pressure JD.com shares lower. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open nearly five JD calls for every put in the past two weeks. The resulting 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.98 is in the 86th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a much healthier-than-usual appetite for bullish bets over bearish of late.

While calls traded have outnumbered puts on an absolute basis today, it's the latter that's seeing accelerated volume. Roughly 28,000 JD puts have changed hands thus far -- almost two times the average intraday amount. The most popular put is the April 27 strike; buyers expect JD to extend its retreat beneath $27 through the next few weeks, before the options expire.

While the aforementioned technical signal has been a warning sign for JD shares in the past, the stock's trajectory will more than likely be determined by what happens with U.S.-China trade relations. The lack of a trade deal between the two nations -- or another round of dismal trade data out of China -- could weigh heavy on the stock.

Published on Mar 8, 2019 at 1:13 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

Stitch Fix Inc (NASDAQ:SFIX) is preparing to report earnings after the close on Monday, March 11, and that's notable since the company's last three earnings releases have sparked at least a 20.9% single-day swing in the stock price. Including all five earnings releases in the company's history, SFIX has averaged an after-earnings move of 19.2%. The options market is pricing in another huge move this time around, too, expecting an almost 22% move from SFIX for Tuesday's trading.

Meanwhile, sentiment in the options pits seems relatively normal ahead of earnings. That is, the 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.68 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the middling 55th annual percentile.

Some of this consistent call buying is probably linked to the extremely high short interest levels on Stitch Fix. In fact, short interest accounts for almost 36% of the total float, and if you go by average daily trading volumes, it would take short sellers almost three weeks to cover their positions.

At last check, the AI-powered styling platform was trading down 4.8% at $25.27, moving away from the 200-day moving average and falling below the recently supportive 20-day moving average. All of this is taking place near the site of SFIX's December bear gap, setting up a formidable area of technical resistance.

sfix stock price

Published on Mar 8, 2019 at 1:52 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown

The stock market's strong February finish was quickly put in the rearview mirror this week, as global growth concerns sent traders heading for the exits as the bull market hit a notable milestone. Fears of a slowing world economy were only exacerbated ahead of Friday's open after China unveiled dismal February export data and the U.S. posted its slimmest monthly jobs gain in over a year. Not only did the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all close lower for five straight sessions -- the first time this has happened since 2016, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, but the S&P surrendered its short-lived foothold atop the key 2,800 level, and the Nasdaq snapped its longest weekly win streak since the dot-com era.

Retail Earnings Roll In

Retail earnings hit Wall Street hard. While Urban Outfitters (URBN) flashed a sell signal on the charts ahead of its quarterly results, Target (TGT) popped after its fourth-quarter beat-and-raise. Other names moving on earnings were Kroger (KR), American Eagle (AEO), and Big Lots (LOTS).

It wasn't just earnings that brought consumer discretionary stocks into the limelight, though. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) was downgraded at Barclays, while Revlon earned a note of caution from Jefferies.

This Weed Stock Has Cheap Options

Analysts turned their attention to the cannabis sector this week -- sparking volatile trading for a number of stocks. While Cowen tapped Aurora Cannabis (ACB) as its top pick among weed stocks, Jefferies set low expectations for Tilray (TLRY) stock after the company's expansion news. Those looking to play the hot sector may consider this stock that has cheap options right now.

Needham Called This FAANG Stock a "Buy"

FAANG stocks were on the radar, too. While Amazon (AMZN) buzz gave a boost to Zebra Technologies stock, Democratic presidential candidate and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren suggested breaking up the big-cap e-tailer. And while Netflix (NFLX) flashed a buy signal, Alphabet (GOOGL) scored a "buy" rating at Needham.

Inflation Data, Brexit Vote on Tap

Next week will be a busy one on the economic front. Retailers will continue to be in focus following the release of retail sales data, while a pair of inflation updates are also due. Traders will also be watching for a key Brexit vote on Tuesday, March 12, as well as any additional U.S.-China trade headlines.

Published on Mar 8, 2019 at 2:14 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The Dow is getting crushed today, heading toward its fifth straight loss after an ugly jobs report. Among stocks making notable moves today, AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAG) and chip name Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL) are struggling, while biotech concern Seelos Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SEEL) is higher. Here's a quick look at what's got the shares of AMAG, MRVL, and SEEL moving today.

Failed Pregnancy Drug Buries AMAG

AMAG Pharmaceuticals stock is down 19.7% to trade at $11.02, one of the worst stocks on the Nasdaq today. Makena, the company's drug to reduce the risk of preterm birth, failed a trial, which was conducted as part of a post-approval agreement with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). However, AMAG Pharmaceuticals claims the data is skewed, since most enrollees came from Eastern European countries.

Piper Jaffray and Jefferies responded in kind with price-target cuts to $13 and $15, respectively. AMAG earlier fell to a 13-year low of $10.70, and has now shed more than 50% in the past six months.  

Although the stock is on the short-sale restricted list (SSR) today, plenty of short sellers are likely cheering today's collapse. The 8.69 million shares sold short represent 33% of AMAG's total available float, and 14.8 times the average daily trading volume. 

Weak Guidance Triggers MRVL Pullback

Marvell Technology stock is down 3.1% to trade at $18.58, after the company's first-quarter revenue forecast came in lower than expected. The guidance has prompted two price-target cuts, including to $21 from $23 at Jefferies. Despite today's pullback, the semiconductor stock has added roughly 18% in 2019, and is clinging to support at its 40-day moving average.

Puts have exploded in popularity today. At last check, 17,000 MRVL puts have changed hands -- nine times the average intraday volume, and pacing for the 99th percentile of its annual range. Leading the charge is the April 16 put, where new positions are being opened, indicating buyers are banking on an extended pullback from the semiconductor name. 

Seelos Therapeutics Stock on Track for Best Week Ever

Near the top of the Nasdaq sits Seelos Therapeutics stock, up 38% to trade at $4.21. The biotech stock is in the second day of a huge rally, after the company acquired the exclusive license for technology to develop a new Parkinson's drug. SEEL added a whopping 96% yesterday, and is on track for its best week ever by a wide margin. Today's burst has the shares on track to topple their 30-day moving average for the first time since early January. But despite the big week, SEEL is still staring down a 26% deficit in 2019. 

Published on Mar 6, 2019 at 9:39 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Analyst Update

CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS) has been getting wrecked this year. The stock began its descent back in December, shortly after touching a 52-week high of $82.15, and then it suffered a massive post-earnings bear gap last month, and has continued to slide. In fact, CVS shares closed at their lowest point in over five years yesterday, settling at $54.96. At last check this morning, CVS is down 1% at $54.44.

During this sell-off, a number of analysts have cut their outlooks for the pharmacy operator, including Citigroup this morning. The brokerage firm dropped its price target down to $68 from $94 -- though this obviously still represents a sizable premium to the stock's current price.

The real issue, however, is that this may not be the last bear note we see, since 12 of the 17 analysts in coverage still recommend buying the equity. As contrarians, we'd view this as a huge red flag for the underperforming security, since additional downgrades and/or price-target cuts could act as a headwind for CVS.

Bullish sentiment has also been spotted in the options arena. Most notably, near-term options traders are extremely call-heavy, based on the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.45 -- landing in the bottom percentile of its annual range. This is due to heavy open interest at the April 65, 70, and 75 calls, as well, as the May 60 and 70 calls. In the front-month March series, the 70 strike holds peak open interest.

Going off this, call open interest, and total open interest, is at an annual high. This accumulation of open interest at overhead call strikes is another reason the stock's upside potential looks grim.

Published on Mar 6, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Voyager Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:VYGR) jumped out of the gate, after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating and a $27 price target -- a 52% premium to last night's close at $17.76. The brokerage firm said the company's gene therapy-based drug candidates for a number of central nervous system diseases could "prove transformational," and recent collaborations with AbbVie (ABBV) and Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) have "enhanced investor confidence." However, the stock has since swung down 0.1% to trade at $17.74.

Analysts were already bullish on VYGR stock, with two-thirds of those in coverage maintaining a "strong buy" rating. And amid relatively low absolute volume, options traders have shown a preference for long calls over puts in recent weeks, buying to open 22.18 calls for each put over the past 10 sessions at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX).

Elsewhere on Wall Street, short sellers have been in cover mode, with short interest down 11.9% in the two most recent reporting periods to 1.18 million shares. This still represents a healthy 5.2% of VYGR's available float, or 4.9 times the equity's average daily pace of trading.

Voyager Therapeutics stock has certainly benefited from this recent round of short covering. The shares are up roughly 128% from their late-January record low of $7.76, and broke out above their 200-day moving average last week. And coming off back-to-back daily 10% gains, the equity's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed last night at 81 -- well into overbought territory, suggesting a near-term pullback may have been in the cards.

Published on Mar 6, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Online travel name TripAdvisor Inc (NASDAQ:TRIP) is lower in early trading, down 5.4% at $49.48, after being slammed with a bear note from Cowen and Company. The firm downgraded its rating to "underperform" from "market perform," and sliced its price target to $40 from $50. In the note, Cowen called out TripAdvisor's weak start to the year, the stock's expensiveness compared to sector peers, and rising competition from Google.

The bear note doesn't come as too much of a surprise, however. Currently, 19 of the 21 analysts covering TRIP sport tepid "hold" or "sell" ratings. Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target comes in at $56.33.

On the charts TripAdvisor stock has had a volatile run, most recently sliding lower, and now falling below the $52 level -- a mark that has acted as a line of support for the shares during the past 12 months. Regardless, the equity has slipped 9% year-to-date.

Digging deeper, options look to be an ideal way to bet on more upside for TRIP. This is per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 32%, which ranks in the 6th percentile of its annual range. In other words, volatility expectations do not appear high for short-term contracts.

Lastly, short interest on TRIP fell 6.6% during the past two reporting periods, and now represents a healthy 15.4% of the stock's total available float. At the online travel name's average pace of daily trading, it would take shorts nearly a week to buy back their bearish bets.

Begin the New Year With Schaeffer's 7 FREE 2022 Stock Picks!

1640638248

 


MORE | MARKETstories


Stocks Poised to Weather Tumultuous Week
Stocks swung wildly this week, but Wall Street is still eyeing a weekly win
CarMax Stock Pops After Strong Q1 Results
CarMax reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings results