Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Feb 21, 2019 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (NYSE:DPZ) are down 9.5% at $252.13 in early trading, after the restaurant concern reported earnings and same-store sales growth that fell short of analysts' estimates. The company cited competition from both food delivery services and other pizza companies as reasons for the miss. Today, DPZ stock is headed for its fifth straight loss, and its worst session since July 2017. 

Domino's stock just recently attempted to come within striking distance of its Aug. 29 high of $305.34, but was thwarted by the $295 level. Now, the equity is down almost 15% from last week's peak, and is trading at levels not seen since mid-January. 

With eight analysts giving DPZ a "strong buy" rating and six saying "hold," the stock could be vulnerable to downgrades. Plus, the consensus 12-month target price now represents a premium of more than 16% to current levels. 

Likewise, the security sports a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.64 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio sits in the 90th percentile of its annual range, meaning options traders have had a healthier-than-usual appetite for these bullish bets of late -- a potential catalyst for more headwinds, should these optimistic positions begin to unwind. 

However, some of the recent call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- may have been bought by shorts seeking a pre-earnings options hedge. Short sellers have been piling on lately, with short interest up 102.7% in the most recent reporting period. The 2.58 million shares sold short now represent a healthy 7.2% of DPZ's available float.

Published on Feb 21, 2019 at 10:55 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) are down 1% at $135, at last check, after the consumer products giant said it received subpoenas from the U.S. Department of Justice and Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in relation to litigation over alleged asbestos in its talc-based products, including its Baby Powder brand. This follows a damning Reuters report in mid-December, which accused JNJ of knowing its products contained the carcinogen.   

On the charts, JNJ has been moving higher, though it still has a ways to go before filling its Dec. 14 bear gap, when the shares plunged 10%. While the pharmaceutical name has added 10.7% from its Dec. 24 bottom, it has been unable to break above the 80-day moving average. From a broader perspective, Johnson & Johnson stock has added nearly 4% year-over-year.

Those wanting to bet on the Dow stock's near-term trajectory may want to consider a premium-buying strategy. JNJ's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 16% ranks in the 19th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are relatively cheap at the moment, from a volatility perspective.

Meanwhile, the pharma stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) stands at a 73 out of a possible 100. This indicates JNJ has tended to make outsized moves over the last year, compared to what the options market had priced in -- a potential boon to premium buyers.

Published on Feb 21, 2019 at 11:38 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity

Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) stock is sinking, after Stifel downgraded it to "hold" from "buy," and cut its price target by $51 to to $346. The brokerage firm expressed concern over BIIB's Alzheimer's drug after Roche Holding ended late-stage trials for similar treatments targeting beta-amyloid last month, as well as a patent review for its multiple sclerosis drug, Tecfidera, and increased competition for its muscular atrophy treatment, Spinraza, saying Biogen "has become a harder story for us to get behind with optimism and conviction."

This shift to a more pessimistic tone is relatively rare among analysts, with the vast majority of the 21 covering brokerages still maintaining a "buy" or better rating, and not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $385.63 stands at a 19.5% premium to BIIB's current perch at $322.83, down 3.7% so far today.

Options traders have been bullish toward Biogen stock, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.43 ranks in the 71st annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at an accelerated clip.

However, signs of skepticism are starting to show in this bunch, as well. Amid relatively low absolute volume so far, puts are trading at 1.1 times the average intraday rate and are outpacing calls by a nearly 3-to-1 ratio.

The weekly 2/22 327.50-strike put is most active, and it looks like new positions are being purchased for a volume-weighted average price of $4.12. If this is the case, breakeven for the put buyers at the close tomorrow, Feb. 22, is $323.38 (strike less premium paid).

On the charts, BIIB stock has been stuck churning beneath the $345-$350 levels since a late-July data-driven bear gap sent it careening from its multi-year high of $388.76. More recently, the shares have run into resistance at a trendline connecting lower highs since late January, and today's downside puts Biogen at risk of closing back beneath its 200-day moving average.

biib stock daily price chart feb 21

Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 11:56 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

The investment trust company Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE:CODI) just announced the sale of its majority-owned hemp foods unit, Manitoba Harvest, to the marijuana concern Tilray Inc (TLRY) for roughly C$419 million. Compass said it plans to use the deal's proceeds to repay debts. As a result, CODI stock shot up roughly 5% out of the gate to a near-four month high of $16.46 before paring its gains.

The equity has rebounded 38% from its Dec. 24 multi-year closing low of $11.68, and is now pacing for its biggest quarterly gain since September 2009 -- up 29% since the beginning of January. Plus, CODI stock could close above its 126-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. At last check, CODI is up 3% at $16.15.

The majority of analysts are betting on more upside for Compass, with four doling out "buy" or better ratings and one saying "hold." Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $18.30 is a 13.3% premium to current levels.

What's more, the number of shares sold short dropped 33.2% in the most recent reporting period, and short interest now represents only 1.3% of the stock's available float. Plus, CODI's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.18 ranks in the lowest percentile of its annual range, suggesting that short-term options players are favoring calls over puts by an extreme degree. 

With plenty of optimism priced into CODI shares already, it's no surprise to see the stock's early momentum already fading. In fact, the stock was up about 12% premarket before more than halving those gains at the open. Meanwhile, TLRY stock is trading 4.4% higher at the session's halfway point.

 

Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 12:55 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Oil prices are on the rise again today, with front-month crude last seen 1.8% higher at $57.08 per barrel -- a new year-to-date high. However, a pair of energy stocks recently flashed historically bearish signals, suggesting it may be time to jump ship on Gulfport Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:GPOR) and EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) -- one of which reports earnings soon.

GPOR Stock Flashes Bearish Signal Before Earnings

Gulfport Energy shares are up 3% to flirt with $8.25. The security has advanced more than 25% year-to-date, but is now within one standard deviation of its 70-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch below this trendline. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been eight similar run-ups in the past two years, after which GPOR averaged a one-month loss of nearly 12%, and was lower all but once.

GPOR stock chart feb 20

It's worth noting that Gulfport is slated to report earnings after the close next Wednesday, Feb. 27. Nevertheless, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 52% is higher than just 27% of all other readings from the past year. In simple terms, this indicates that GPOR's short-term options are pricing in relatively modest volatility expectations for the shares.

Despite the equity's channel of lower highs and lows over the past few months, nearly half of the analysts following GPOR maintain "buy" or better ratings. Should the shares once again backpedal in the face of familiar resistance, a round of negative analyst notes could place added pressure on the energy stock.

EQT Shares Stare Up at Familiar Resistance

EQT Corporation stock was last seen 3.9% higher at $19.70. The equity has been in a channel of higher lows since bottoming at $16.29 in mid-November, with upside momentum capped by the $20-$21 neighborhood -- where the security landed after an October bear gap. Plus, EQT is back within one standard deviation of its 80-day trendline, after a lengthy stretch south of the moving average. After 10 prior signals, the shares were down a month later nearly every time, averaging a loss of just over 5%.

EQT stock chart feb 20

Again, despite an overhead wall on the charts, EQT still sports six "buy" or better endorsements from analysts, compared to six lukewarm "holds" and just one "sell." Plus, the average 12-month price target of $25.58 represents a nearly 30% premium to the stock's current price. Should EQT once again retreat, a round of downgrades or price-target cuts could exacerbate selling pressure.

Traders looking to speculate on the stock's short-term trajectory should consider options. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at a lofty 90 out of a possible 100, suggesting EQT has handily exceeded option traders' volatility expectations in the past year.

Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 1:04 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Analyst Update

Flash drive storage specialist Pure Storage Inc (NYSE:PSTG) this morning saw its stock's rating at Raymond James cut to "market perform" from "outperform." The brokerage firm noted the slowdown in data center sales from business partner Nvidia (NVDA), on top of the weakness seen from storage rival NetApp (NTAP), and rising competition from Dell (DELL).

PSTG shares fell to $18.30 earlier, but were last seen at $19.16, down 0.8% on the day. The security has been feeling pressure from its 100-day moving average, which was a solid level of support in 2017 and 2018. This trendline also sits near a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the stock's decline from its September peak to December low.

pstg stock price

There's been notable activity on Pure Storage's March 17.50 put today, and data suggests traders are selling to open the contract. By doing so, the traders would be looking to keep the premium collected, a goal achieved if the equity is trading above $17.50 at the close on March 15.

Interestingly, put buying that's been unusually popular in recent weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), based on the 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.82. This reading stands in the 91st annual percentile.

Wall Street firms overall have a favorable view of the flash solutions provider. The majority of brokerages recommend buying PSTG, and the average price target is $25.63. Looking ahead, the company is scheduled to report earnings after the close on Thursday, Feb. 28.

Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 1:10 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

Streaming device stock Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) is up 0.5% at $53.48 in afternoon trading, as the options market gears up for the company's fourth-quarter earnings, slated for after the market closes tomorrow, Feb. 21. Below, we will take a look at what the post-earnings moves the shares have been priced in for, and how ROKU has been faring on the charts.

ROKU shares have been on the mend, and have more than doubled since hitting an annual low of $26.30 Dec. 24. Further, in early January the stock saw an impressive bull gap, and moved back above the 30-day moving average -- a trendline that had performed as a ceiling for the shares since October of last year. What's more, ROKU 's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) was docked at 74 at Tuesday's close -- well into overbought territory.

ROKU Daily 30MA

Looking toward the streaming name's earnings history, the stock has closed lower the day after three of its total five reports, including a 22.3% drop in November. From a broader standpoint, the shares have averaged a 23.6% swing the day after reporting, regardless of direction. This time around, ROKU options are pricing in a slightly lower 20.5% swing for Friday's trading.

In closing, Roku stock has tended to make bigger-than-expected moves than what the options market was pricing in. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which stands at a lofty 88 out of 100.
Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 1:45 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Options Recommendations

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDSAQ:AMD) rose nearly 3% last week after the Wall Street Journal reported China could boost its U.S. semiconductor purchases over the next six years as part of broader trade negotiations between the two countries. This positive price action is just more of the same for AMD, though, with the stock up 28% year-to-date and 94% year-over-year.

amd weekly chart feb 15

A shift in sentiment could fuel more upside for the chip stock. In the options pits, AMD's 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 83rd annual percentile, meaning puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-usual clip.

And while short interest declined 8% in the two most recent reporting periods -- suggesting shorts are in cover-mode -- there are still 119.78 million AMD shares sold short, accounting for 12.7% of the stock's available float. A capitulation from some of the weaker bearish hands could create tailwinds for the equity.

There's room for upgrades to draw buyers to the table, too. In spite of the security's impressive gains, 11 of 20 analysts maintain a "hold" or "strong sell" rating on AMD.

Lastly, the stock has been an attractive target for premium buyers over the last 12 months, according to its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 99 (out of a possible 100). In other words, AMD has tended to make outsized moves, relative to what the options market has priced in.

Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader options recommendation service received this AMD commentary on Sunday night, along with a detailed options trade recommendation -- including complete entry and exit parameters. Learn more about why Weekend Trader is one of our most popular options trading services.

Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 2:20 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

Stocks spent most of the day just above breakeven, while traders now digest the latest Fed minutes. Three names to watch today are Tesla rival Kandi Technologies Group Inc (NASDAQ:KNDI), charging station operator Blink Charging Co (NASDAQ:BLNK), and financial firm Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW). Let's take a closer look what's happening with shares of KNDI, BLNK, and SCHW today.

NHTSA Approval Sends KNDI Stock to New High

KNDI stock is taking Wall Street by storm today, after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration approved two of its electric vehicles. The shares have jumped 46.5% to $8.71, earlier touching an annual high of $8.85, and volume is soaring in and out of the options pits. Call volume of 14,000 is already at a new annual high, and the March 8 call is most popular overall. Anyone buying to open the option would be wagering on more gains over the next month.

Kandi Technologies shares were trading at just $3.63 coming into 2019, and got a solid bump in early January thanks to more upbeat news around its electric vehicle production. Data wise, what stands out is the high short interest levels surrounding the security, as these bearish bets account for 16.3% of the total float -- suggesting some gains could be attributed to a short squeeze.

BLNK Enjoys Kandi Tailwinds

The news around Kandi Technologies is also acting as a tailwind for BLNK stock, which is trading up 29.3% at $3.94. The shares are set to close above the formerly resistant 200-day moving for the first time in over a year, bringing their year-to-date gain to roughly 77%.

Meanwhile, call volume is running at 10 times the expected pace today, and the deep in-the-money March 2.50 call is in the lead. Call buying has been the preferred strategy among Blink Charging options traders in recent weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), where more than 18.57 were bought to open for every put in the past two weeks.

UBS Says Sell Charles Schwab Stock

SCHW shares are under pressure after UBS cut its rating to "sell" from "neutral," and lowered its price target to $42 from $48. The stock was last seen down 1.9% at $46.15. The 160-day moving average has been acting as a ceiling since the mid-January bull gap, though the $44 level -- right where Charles Schwab closed the day prior to said gap -- served as a notable floor back on Feb. 8. For sure, the equity's longer term trend has been downward, losing 9.5% in the past six months.

Bullish or bearish, it would appear to be a good time to pick up short-term options on SCHW, based on its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 23%, ranking just 4 percentage points from a 52-week low. In other words, volatility expectations seem muted at the moment.

Published on Feb 20, 2019 at 2:43 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity

The shares of Trade Desk Inc (NASDAQ:TTD) are sinking today, after Stifel cut its rating on the tech concern to "hold" from "buy." The downgrade comes just before the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which is slated for release after the market closes this Thursday, Feb. 21. The analyst said that while he expects strong earnings and revenue from Trade Desk, expectations are presently too "elevated." As a result, TTD stock is down 9.4% at $146.42, at last check -- pacing for its biggest one day drop since November. 

Trade Desk stock has added roughly 45% since its late December lows, which were contained in the $100-$105 area -- a level of support for TTD since its August bull gap. The stock just touched an all-time high of $165.70 yesterday, and today's pullback has so far been contained by TTD's 20-day moving average.

Plenty of short sellers will be cheering today. Though TTD's spiral has landed it on the short-sale restricted list, the 3.9 million shares sold short represent 11.4% of the stock's available float, or over a week of trading, at the equity's average daily volume.

Ahead of tomorrow's earnings, puts are trading at six times the normal intraday volume, with just over 7,300 contracts changing hands. That just outnumbers the 6,700 TTD call contracts exchanged -- three times the average intraday pace. Most of the action is transpiring at the March 110 put and weekly 2/22 145-strike put. Buyers of these puts expect Trade Desk shares to extend their retreat through the respective strikes within the options' lifetime.

Drilling down, TTD options are pricing in a 20.6% swing for tomorrow's session, which comes in slightly lower than the security's average single-day post-earnings move of 22.5% during the last seven quarters. The stock has moved higher after the company's last four earnings reports, including a 23.8% one-day gap last February.

Published on Feb 19, 2019 at 12:26 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Earnings Preview

Car stock Avis Budget Group Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR) is up nearly 2% at $29.21 in afternoon trading, moving higher after the company named John F. North III its new chief financial officer, effective March 18. Avis also unveiled its Business Intelligence (BI) portal, an online resource for corporate travel managers, ahead of earnings after the close tomorrow, Feb. 20.

The vehicle rental name has added 35% since its early January lows, recently gapping above its 80-day moving average on upbeat analyst attention. Further, just last week the stock pushed above its 100-day trendline for the first time since May, when CAR was flirting with annual highs. Both moving averages acted as a ceiling of resistance for the shares in the second half of 2018.

Daily CAR since Jan 2018 with 80 and 100 MA

Switching gears, Avis Budget Group is slated to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes tomorrow. CAR's earnings history is grim, however, as the stock has closed lower the day after seven of its last eight earnings reports, including the last three in a row. Further, CAR suffered a more than 15% drop on two occasions. Overall, the shares have averaged a 10.7% swing the day after reporting, regardless of direction. This time around, CAR options are pricing in a slightly higher 11.7% swing for Thursday's trading.

In the options pits, puts have been flying off the shelves at a faster-than-usual pace ahead of earnings. This is evident from the stock's 10-day put/cal volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The ratio sits at 4.62, ranking in the 86th annual percentile. Echoing this, CAR's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.18 lands in the 97th percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term options traders are more put-biased than usual right now.

Wrapping up, short interest fell 8.5% in the two most recent reporting periods, to 9.52 million shares. This still accounts for a healthy 15.9% of Avis Budget stock's available float, though, and would take more than seven sessions to cover, at the average daily pace of trading.

Should Avis Budget Group buck its trend of negative earnings reactions, an unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could drive further gains for CAR. In addition, a continued exodus of short sellers could also propel the stock higher.

Published on Feb 19, 2019 at 1:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Intraday Option Activity

PG&E Corporation (NYSE:PCG) is among the best stocks on the Big Board today, thanks to some upbeat analyst attention. Specifically, Citigroup upgraded PCG to "buy" from "neutral," and tripled its price target to $33 -- more than double the equity's close on Friday. The analyst believes there's an "increasing likelihood of legislative action" in California in the next two to three months that could be favorable to the utility name, which filed for bankruptcy protection in January amid liability concerns for its role in California wildfires. Against this backdrop -- and ahead of earnings next week -- PCG call options are hot today.

Since touching a record low of $5.07 on Jan. 15, PG&E shares have more than tripled. The stock was last seen 15.4% higher to trade at $17.86, and is on pace to topple its 50-day moving average for the first time since early November -- before the security suffered multiple bear gaps. The $18-$19 area, though, is where PCG landed after an early January bear gap, and contained the stock's downside momentum in mid-November. This region could now act as a speed bump for the equity.

PCG stock chart feb 19

PG&E has seen roughly 49,000 call options change hands today -- almost two times the average intraday call volume, and more than triple the number of puts exchanged. The June 21 call has attracted the most attention, with two blocks totaling 10,000 contracts traded around the bid price, suggesting they were sold to open. By writing the calls to open, the seller expects PCG shares to remain south of $21 through June options expiration.

Meanwhile, it appears "vanilla" call buyers are picking up the June 18 and 19 calls. Buyers of the calls expect PCG to extend its journey higher over the next few months. The calls will move deeper into the money the higher PCG surmounts the $18 and $19 levels before the close on Friday, June 21, when the options expire.

Today's appetite for PG&E calls runs counter to the growing trend. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.73 is in the 75th percentile of its annual range. While this indicates that bought calls have outnumbered puts on an absolute basis, the percentile tells us option buyers have picked up PCG puts over calls at a faster-than-usual pace in the past two weeks.

Echoing that, the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.99 indicates that put open interest nearly doubles call open interest among options expiring within three months. This ratio is higher than 94% of all others from the past year, suggesting near-term traders have rarely been more put-biased toward PCG in the past 12 months.

As alluded to earlier, PG&E is expected to report quarterly earnings next Thursday, Feb. 28. Over the past eight quarters, PCG shares have moved 1.7% the day after earnings, on average, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a much bigger 10.8% swing for the stock next Friday.

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