Shares of Citrix Systems, Inc (NASDAQ:CTXS) are hovering near breakeven at $102.20 today, as traders gear up for the company's third-quarter earnings, which are set for release after the market closes tonight. Below we will take a look at how CTXS has been faring on the charts, and at what the options market has priced in for the stock's post-earnings moves.

Long term, CTXS spent most of the past year climbing atop support at the 60-day and 100-day moving averages, with the security touching a record closing high of $114.42 in late August. However, the equity breached this pair of trendlines earlier this month, as Citrix stock slide with the broader stock market. The shares seem to have found a foothold atop the round-number century mark, though.

Digging into its earnings history, CTXS closed higher the day after reporting in four of the last eight quarters, including the last three in a row. Looking broader, the shares have averaged a 2.8% move the day after earnings over the last two years, regardless of direction. This time around, CTXS options traders are expecting a much larger-than-usual 7.0% swing for Thursday's trading.

While absolute options volume runs light on Citrix, the software stock sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.75, which ranks in the highest percentile of its annual range. In other words, short-term speculators are much more put-heavy than usual toward CTXS stock ahead of earnings.

In the same pessimistic vein, 14 of 17 covering analysts offer up tepid "hold" or worse ratings on the tech name. Plus, short interest accounts for 7.3% of the equity's total available float, and would take about seven days to buy back, at CTXS' average daily trading volume. Should the shares once again pop higher after earnings, a round of analyst upgrades or an exodus of option bears or short sellers could propel the security higher.

The shares of Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE:NSC) are higher in early trading, as traders applaud the company's quarterly earnings report. What's more, the stock's rally could have legs, if recent history is any indicator. In addition, fellow railroad stock Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) could be flashing buy before the company reports earnings tomorrow. Below, we'll take a closer look at NSC and UNP shares, and explain why transportation stocks in general could enjoy a warm November.

Norfolk's Earnings Rally Could Have Legs

NSC was last seen 4.3% higher to trade at $163.76. After touching an all-time high of $186.91 in mid-September, the security pulled back with the broader equities market, but found support atop its 200-day moving average. In fact, the security yesterday came within one standard deviation of this trendline after a lengthy stretch above it -- sending up what's been a historically bullish signal.

Specifically, in the past three years, there have been six similar pullbacks to the 200-day for Norfolk Southern shares. After these dips, the stock was higher one month later 100% of the time, averaging a healthy gain of 7.64%, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. If past is prologue, today's post-earnings boost could just be getting started for NSC.

A short squeeze could add fuel to the stock's fire, too. Short interest has been declining recently, but still represents more than four sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at NSC's average pace of trading.

UNP Could Be a Buy Before Earnings

Union Pacific is slated to report its own third-quarter earnings before the open tomorrow, Oct. 25. The shares also enjoyed a record high in mid-September, peaking at $165.63 before pulling back to their 200-day moving average. There have been three of these signals in as many years, after which UNP stock went on to average a one-month gain of 7.59%, and was up 67% of the time. From the equity's current perch of $144.66, a similar rally would place it just under $156.

Should the company wow with its earnings report tomorrow, there's plenty of room on the bullish bandwagon. More than half the analysts covering UNP maintain tepid "hold" or "strong sell" ratings, and put buying has ramped up lately. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.53 is in the 84th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for bearish bets over bullish of late.

Best Sector for November

In addition, seasonality is on the side of transportation stocks. Over the past decade, the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT)  -- which boasts NSC and UNP among its top three holdings -- has been the best exchange-traded fund (ETF) to own in the month of November, per White. Specifically, the fund has been higher 80% of the time, averaging a gain of 3.11%.

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings before the market opens tomorrow, Oct. 25. TWTR stock has been relatively quiet on the charts over the last two months, per the stock's 60-day historical volatility of 40.9%, which registers in the 6th annual percentile. However, the options market is pricing in a bigger-than-usual post-earnings move for tomorrow's trading.

At last check, Trade-Alert placed the implied daily earnings move for TWTR at 20.6% -- nearly double the 11.1% next-day move the stock has averaged over the last two years. It's been an even split between positive and negative earnings reactions over the past eight quarters, though the two most recent were to the downside. And just one of these post-earnings performances -- a 20.5% plunge this past July -- was large enough to meet or exceed the percentage move the options market is expecting this time around.

Looking at recent options activity, it seems speculative players are positioning for another swing lower. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), TWTR's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.58 ranks in the 94th annual percentile. While the ratio shows that more calls than puts have been bought to open over the last two weeks, the percentile ranking indicates the rate of put buying relative to call buying has been quicker than usual.

At the moment, TWTR's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) of 84.1% ranks in the 100th annual percentile, indicating short-term options are pricing in higher-than-usual volatility expectations -- not unusual ahead of a scheduled event, like earnings. Meanwhile, the stock's 30-day IV skew of 7.5% registers in the 95th percentile of its 12-month range, meaning near-term puts have rarely been more expensive than calls, from a volatility perspective.

Outside of the options pits, short sellers have reduced their exposure to Twitter. Short interest on the social media stock plunged 19.1% in the two most recent reporting periods to 44.51 million shares -- the fewest since early June. However, these bearish bets still account for a healthy 6.5% of TWTR's float, or about two times its average daily pace of trading.

Analysts, meanwhile, are mostly skeptical of Twitter stock, with 21 of 28 maintaining a "hold" or worse recommendation. Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target of $33.09 is a 13% premium to the equity's current perch.

On the charts, TWTR stock topped out at a three-year high of $47.79 back on June 15, but has since shed 39%. More recently, the selling has stalled out near the equity's 320-day moving average, which served as a magnet for the shares in late 2017. Today, Twitter shares are trading up 1.6% at $29.24, bringing their year-to-date gain to nearly 22%.

The shares of Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) are taking part in the broad market and semiconductor sell-off today, down 4.2% at last check to trade at $221.41. Also pressuring NVDA lower is a price-target cut from UBS to $260 from $285. However, there is silver lining for the chip stock in the form of two bullish signals that just flashed.

NVDA is now within one standard deviation of its 320-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch above this trendline. In the last two years, there has been one other signal of this kind, after which the shares were up a whopping 25.81% a month after, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. 

Given the equity's current perch, a similar rebound would have the equity trading right near the $279 level. What's more, NVDA sports 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 31, on the cusp of oversold territory, suggesting a short-term bounce may be in the cards.

Nvidia is also a good stock to own after a broad market sell-off. According to White, following S&P 500 drops of 3% or more in one day, NVDA gained 2.4% in the subsequent two weeks, on average, and was higher 78% of the time. 

In the options pits, short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual, per the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.10 -- in the 80th annual percentile. Meanwhile, it appears to be a more attractive time to sell premium on short-term NVDA options. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility was last seen at 59.4% -- in the 99th annual percentile. In other words, near-term options are pricing in elevated volatility expectations at the moment.

The shares of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) have been volatile in recent months, per their 120-day historical volatility of 63.4% -- in the 99th annual percentile. Things are no different today, with the security up 10.2% to trade at $290.69, after Citron Research said it was long on TSLA stock.

The noted short seller set a $100 price target on Tesla back in early March, as the stock was tumbling toward its worst month in years. In a note earlier today, though, Citron said," Tesla is destroying the competition," and waxed optimistically on a number of things, including the electric carmaker's ability to raise cash and next year's Model 3 debut in European markets.

Citron's repositioning comes on the heels of last night's announcement that Tesla would report third-quarter earnings after the market closes tomorrow, Oct. 24, about a week earlier than previously expected. While most of TSLA's earnings reactions over the last eight quarters have been negative, the stock gapped 16.2% higher the day after its early August results, eventually topping out at an annual high of $387.46 on Aug. 7 -- courtesy of CEO Elon Musk's infamous go-private tweet.

This busy backdrop has sparked a rush of activity in Tesla's options pits today, with around 207,000 calls and 141,000 puts on the tape so far -- about 1.9 times the average daily pace of trading. The November 310 call is most active with 18,188 contracts traded so far. New positions are being initiated here, with the bulk of the action centered across several spreads.

This front-month strike has been popular, though, and has seen one of the biggest increases in open interest over the last 10 days. Data from the major options exchanges confirms at least some buy-to-open activity here, suggesting speculators are betting on TSLA swinging back above $310 by November options expiration.

While some of this action could be of the traditional bullish kind, it's also likely short sellers have been using long calls to hedge against any upside risk. The 33.63 million Tesla shares sold short represent 26.4% of the equity's available float, or 3.1 times the average daily pace of trading.

The Dow is trading lower today following a disappointing round of corporate earnings. Most notably, blue chips Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) and 3M Co (NYSE:MMM) are leading the sell-off, overshadowing upbeat results from McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD). Below, we'll look at how shares of CAT, MMM, and MCD are trading today, and how the options market is responding.

CAT Stock Hits New Low After Earnings

CAT stock is trading down 7% at $119.75, flirting with its worst one-day loss since January 2015, as investors react to the company's decision not to raise its full-year earnings forecast. The shares hit a 52-week low of $115.65 earlier, losing 23% in the past month alone, and are now pacing for a fifth straight daily decline.

In response, intraday Caterpillar options volume has already more than tripled the daily average. On the call side, traders are opening new positions at the November 120 strike, the most popular contract today. The most popular put, meanwhile, is the November 115 strike, where new positions are also being initiated. Coming into today, put buying was unusually popular, with the 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.22 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranking just 3 percentage points from a 12-month peak.

3M Put Options Hot After Weak Forecast

MMM stock hit a 20-month low today, bottoming at $184.50, and was last seen trading down 3.7% at $193.93. The company lowered its full-year profit outlook after announcing its largest quarterly revenue miss in two years. Overall, 3M is down almost 18% in 2018.

3M options volume is also running well above the daily average, with more than 17,000 puts crossing, compared to 12,000 calls. Leading the way are the weekly 10/26 185- and 190-strike puts, with new positions opening at each. Put buying had also been popular on MMM coming into today, according to its 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.52 at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, ranking in the 95th annual percentile.

MCD Stock Flirts with New High After Earnings

MCD shares are spiking 6% to trade at $176.73 -- pacing toward their best day in three years -- putting them within striking distance of the Jan. 29 record peak of $178.70. Fueling the move is McDonald's better-than-expected global same-store sales for July-September period. The stock had already been trending higher since an early August low near $153, gaining 12% in the past three months. Options traders may be betting on more upside, too, with new positions opening at the weekly 10/26 172.50-, 175-, and 177.50-strike calls.

The shares of eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) are 5.8% lower ahead of the bell, after Stifel downgraded the retail stock to "hold" from "buy," while slashing its price target to $35 from $43. The analyst in coverage cited weakening gross merchandise volume (GMV) trends, which were highlighted in PayPal's (PYPL) quarterly report last night. 

Should today's price action pan out, eBay stock would hit a new annual low. It's been rough sledding for the security in 2018, carving out a channel of lower highs and lows since early February. The shares are on track for their fifth straight weekly loss, with breakout attempts during this span thwarted by their 50-day moving average. 

Despite the equity's struggles, there is ample room aboard the bearish bandwagon. Short interest fell in the most recent reporting period to 19.12 million, the lowest amount since August 2017. This represents a meager 2.1% of EBAY's total available float, and 1.8 times the average daily trading volume. 

Analysts have been hesitant to ditch the struggling retailer. Of the 26 brokerages covering EBAY, 15 still rate it a "buy" or "strong buy," with zero "sells" on the books. Furthermore, the stock's consensus 12-month price target sits up at $43.63, a 38% premium to last night's closing price of $31.55.

Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL) are soaring in early trading, last seen up 8.6% at $84.17, after the company last night reported an impressive third-quarter profit beat. The firm also highlighted a record in net new active accounts and encouraging engagement metrics, and said Venmo payments grew 78%. In response, the stock has seen no fewer than three price-target hikes and one price-target cut from analysts.

Specifically, Stifel and J.P. Morgan Securities raised their respective price targets to $108 and $103, while Canaccord Genuity hiked its price target to $88. SunTrust Robinson, on the other hand, slashed its target to $88 from $92. Overall analyst sentiment has been optimistic toward PYPL, with 29 of 35 covering firms sporting "buy" or "strong buy" ratings.

Likewise, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows PayPal stock with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.62. This suggests that over the past two weeks, calls have been bought to open over puts by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

On the charts, PayPal stock has been a long-term outperformer, but suffered this month along with the broader stock market. However, the security found support in the form of its 320-day moving average, and today is set to topple its 20-day trendline for the first time since mid-September, when PYPL was flirting with record highs.

Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) is trading up 1.4% this morning at $117.75 and earlier hit a three-year high of $118.13 after a bull note out of Barclays. The firm upgraded the blue chip to "overweight" from "equal weight" and boosted its price target to $130 from $105, representing all-time-high territory and a 12% premium to last night's close at $116.18. Barclays has high hopes for Disney's shift to streaming, suggesting it could help struggling businesses like ESPN.

DIS shares have been trending higher in recent months. Providing support along the way has been the 80-day moving average, while the stock has also moved past the $110-$114 area that acted as a roadblock throughout the year. Overall, the Dow component sports a year-over-year gain of almost 17%.

In the options pits, traders have long preferred DIS calls over puts. This is according to the 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.10 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Not only does this show that call buying has more than doubled put buying in the past 10 weeks, but the ratio ranks in the 84th annual percentile, showing such demand for long calls is rare.

Speaking of streaming, Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) also just received some bullish analyst attention, with RBC raising its outlook to "outperform" from "sector perform" and its price target to $70 from $48. The analyst covering ROKU thinks the company can sustain its revenue growth thanks to its strong ad-supported streaming services.

ROKU stock has gained 2.1% to trade at $58.23 following the upgrade. The shares have been strong since their April lows near $35, and they got a bump a couple days back thanks to news the company's technology was again available in Mexico. Half the analysts covering the equity still have just "hold" ratings in place, however, suggesting there's room for more bullish attention going forward.

Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is trading down 1.4% at $8.40, earlier hitting a nearly nine-year low of $8.19, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the automaker to "equal weight" from "overweight" and dropped its price target to $10 from $14. The brokerage firm cited uncertainty around the company's restructuring process and suggested the stock's dividend was at risk.

This just extend F shares' downtrend that's essentially been in place since the second half of 2014. This year the equity has dropped almost 32%, shedding 20% in the past three months alone. Most analysts have already accounted for this weakness, with eight of 12 in coverage handing out "hold" recommendations, but now one may wonder if even those four bullish holdouts could soon ditch the underperformer -- especially with earnings right around the corner, due out after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 24.

General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) received some bearish attention of its own, with J.P. Morgan Securities cutting its price target to $48 from $54 -- though this still represents record-high territory for the shares. This comes just two days after Morgan Stanley cut its price target on GM to $43 over concerns about the company's exposure to China.

While the security was last seen trading slightly higher at $31.24, it hit a new low of its own earlier at $30.57, bringing its three-month decline to 20.5%. Some option bulls have express long-term confidence in the stock, however.

Finally, Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG) is down 1.5% and just hit a fresh two-year low of $38.74, after BMO downgraded the motorcycle titan to "market perform" from "outperform" and lowered its price target to $45. Year-to-date, the shares have given back 22%, and short sellers keep moving in, with more than 9% of the total float now sold short.

Energy stocks have taken a hit this week, as crude oil prices dropped on oversupply concerns. However, it could be time to buy the dip on one oil stock: Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO). The shares have pulled back to a key trendline, which has had very bullish implications for MRO in the past.

Marathon Oil stock has been in a channel of higher highs and lows since August 2017. More recently, the equity notched a three-year high of $24.20 on Oct. 3, before dropping back to the $20 level, which has provided a round-number floor for MRO since May. What's more, the stock is now within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch above this trendline.

During the past three years, there have been seven pullbacks of this kind for MRO, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One month later, the security was higher 100% of the time, averaging a healthy gain of 9.65%. From. MRO's current perch of $20.91, a similar pop would put the oil stock around $22.93

While Marathon Oil call buying has been more prevalent than put buying on an absolute basis during the past two weeks, option bears have been much more visible than usual. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MRO's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.62 is in the 85th percentile of its annual range. This indicates a healthier-than-usual appetite for bearish over bullish bets lately. An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could help propel MRO back toward new highs, should the stock and/or oil prices rebound once again.

Oil name Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) is trading up 1.9% at $38.73 today, but the shares have been declining since their mid-May highs. Most recently, HAL touched a two-year low of $35.75 on Sept. 2.

More broadly, oil stocks are taking a hit this week on oversupply concerns and a sector-wide bear note out of J.P. Morgan Securities yesterday. Meanwhile, Halliburton is slated to report its third-quarter earnings before the market opens, Monday, Oct. 22, and here we'll dive into what the options market has priced in for the stock's post-earnings moves.

Digging into its earnings history, HAL closed lower the day after reporting in six of the last eight quarters, including an 8.1% drop after its late-July report. Looking broader, the shares have averaged a 3.2% move the day after earnings over the last two years, regardless of direction. This time around, options traders are pricing in a larger-than-usual 5.1% swing for Monday's trading.

Digging deeper, short-term traders appear to be betting on a downside move for HAL. This is based on the stock's 30-day implied volatility skew of 8.1%, which ranks in the 80th annual percentile -- indicating puts are more expensive than usual relative to calls.

Lastly, the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 95 out of 100. This lofty ranking shows that HAL has a tendency to make larger-than-expected moves on the charts compared to what the options market has priced in over the past year.