Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) is soaring today -- up 3.8% at $20.86 -- on reports its Freeport-McMoRan Oil & Gas Inc unit has filed for an initial public offering of up to $100 million. The positive price action has sparked a rush of call activity in FCX's options pits, with the contracts crossing at two times the average intraday pace.

Drilling down, FCX's weekly 6/26 21-strike call -- which expires at this Friday's close -- has seen the most action, with over 6,700 contracts on the tape so far. It appears new positions are being bought to open here for a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.16, making breakeven $21.17 (strike plus VWAP) -- in line with today's intraday peak.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals today's accelerated call activity is just more of the same. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), FCX's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.24 ranks in the 90th annual percentile. In other words, calls have been bought to open over puts with more rapidity just 10% of the time within the past year.

This glass-half-full approach has spilled outside of the options pits, as well, where 64% of analysts maintain a "buy" or "strong buy" rating toward FCX and the average 12-month price target of $25.33 sits in territory not seen since early December. Additionally, a low 4.2% of the stock's float is sold short, and would take less than three sessions to cover, at average daily trading levels.

This optimism is a bit surprising, given FCX's long-term technical troubles. In fact, since hitting an annual high of $39.32 last July, shares of Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX) have surrendered 47%. Meanwhile, today's advance is being containted by the security's 40-day moving average -- a trendline that served as resistance in March. Should the stock resume its downtrend, an unwinding of the optimism could translate into additional losses.

It's a down day for the broader equities market, as optimism over a debt deal for Greece fades. Meanwhile, among specific equities seeing significant losses in today's trading are biotechnology names Alcobra Ltd (NASDAQ:ADHD) and Transition Therapeutics Inc (USA) (NASDAQ:TTHI), as traders react to a disappointing batch of drug data.

ADHD, for example, is off 14.7% at $7.16, after data showed the company's treatment for Fragile X Syndrome -- a genetic disorder that may cause autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder -- failed its mid-stage trial goals. This negative price action is rare for a stock that's nearly doubled in value on a year-to-date basis.

It appears speculators were bracing for a pullback, however. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), ADHD's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.69 ranks in the 68th annual percentile. Elsewhere, nearly one-third of Alcobra Ltd's (NASDAQ:ADHD) float is sold short.

Meanwhile, TTHI is taking it on the chin today -- down 74% at $2.39, and fresh off a two-year low of $2.11. Sparking the sell-off are reports the firm's experimental Alzheimer's drug, ELND005, did not meet the primary endpoints of its Phase 2/3 study. The stock is now comfortably in the red on a year-to-date basis, and on track to close at its lowest point since April 2013.

The stock could see some additional headwinds in the near term, should more short sellers climb on board. Short interest rose 6.7% in the two latest reporting periods, but still only accounts for 1.7% of Transition Therapeutics Inc's (NASDAQ:TTHI) total available float.

Analysts are weighing in today on cruise concern Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE:RCL), gaming giant Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO), and drugmaker Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ALDR). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on RCL, TTWO, and ALDR.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded its opinion of RCL to "buy" from "neutral," citing the company's improving traction in China and the stock's "compelling entry point" relative to its peers. As such, the shares have managed to buck the broad-market trend lower, edging up 0.2% to $80.65. On a longer-term basis, though, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd has struggled, sitting 2.2% below its year-to-date flatline. It's worth noting that Goldman isn't alone in its glowing recommendation of the stock. In fact, 13 analysts current rate RCL a "buy" or better, compared to one "hold" assessment and not a single "sell."


• Jefferies weighed in on a number of video game names today, including TTWO. Specifically, the brokerage firm upgraded the equity to "buy" from "hold," and boosted its price target to $35 from $29. The bullish note has led Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. to a 1.3% intraday lead at $28.38. In fact, since hitting a late-April low of $23.30, the shares have advanced 22%. Nevertheless, traders have been buying to open puts over calls at an accelerated clip of late. TTWO's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.61 ranks in the 82nd percentile of its annual range. Likewise, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits at 1.13 -- higher than 99% of comparable readings from the past year.


• Unlike this pair of struggling sector peers, ALDR is 5.6% higher this afternoon at $50.22. Earlier, the stock touched a record high of $51.43 after Credit Suisse initiated coverage with an "outperform" endorsement and $50 price target, citing the company's potentially "best-in-class" migraine drug. The upward price action is more of the same for Alder Biopharmaceuticals Inc, which has surged 72.5% in 2015. Not everyone's so confident in the stock, though -- 11.2% of its float is currently sold short.

After churning between $80 and $83 for a little over a month, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) has broken out to all-time highs in the past few days, adding 7.3% week-to-date. Today, the shares are 0.7% higher at $88.49, after touching a record peak of $89.25 earlier. The upward momentum is likely pleasing short-term option traders; FB's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is only 1 percentage point from an annual call-skewed high. 

It was announced today that HBO will air the first episodes of two new shows, "Ballers" and "The Brink," for free on the social media site. Elsewhere, a report by Citigroup claims the stock is still under-owned, compared to some of its big-cap tech peers. "We believe Facebook and Google may have the greatest near-term opportunity among large-cap Internet," said an analyst. On top of all of this, RBC analyst Mark Mahaney recently waxed optimistic on FB's video and mobile potential on CNBC. 

It's no secret that analysts are fully behind the security. Currently, 25 of 27 brokerage firms say it's a "buy" or better. Moreover, FB's average 12-month price target stands at $97.10 -- representing 9.7% upside for the stock, and, of course, all-time high territory. In fact, SocGen just upped its price target to $68 from $65, though the firm still has a "sell" recommendation on the stock. 

Part of Facebook Inc's (NASDAQ:FB) recent surge may be from short sellers throwing in the towel. During the two most recent reporting periods, short interest on the equity fell by over 25%. 

Analysts are weighing in today on automaker Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Madden NFL marketer Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA), and spice specialist McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on F, EA, and MKC.

• F, which just announced a car-sharing pilot program, received a bullish nod from Goldman Sachs. Specifically, the brokerage firm said it prefers Ford Motor Company to General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), due to better profitability prospects next year, and also upgraded the former to "buy" from "neutral." The note has F sitting 1.6% higher ahead of the bell, and on track to open just above its year-to-date breakeven mark. Yesterday, the shares settled at $15.29, and atop their 32-day moving average for the first time since late March. Meanwhile, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have been buying to open puts over calls at an accelerated clip in recent weeks. In fact, F's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.49 outstrips 94% of comparable readings from the past year.


• EA is poised to pop 2% at the open, after seeing its price target lifted to $75 and $80, respectively, at Brean Capital and Jefferies. Jefferies also boosted its opinion on the stock to "buy" from "hold." Longer term, Electronic Arts Inc. has been a beast, surging 41.6% year-to-date to trade at $66.58, and touching a 10-year high of $67.49 yesterday. Nevertheless, eight of 19 covering analysts maintain tepid "hold" ratings, and the equity's average 12-month price target of $67.13 lies just overhead. This could pave the way for future upgrades and/or price-target boosts.


• Fresh off an agreement to buy barbeque sauce brand Stubb's, MKC was upgraded to "outperform" from "market perform" at Bernstein, which also raised its price target to $93 from $81. Overall, the shares have been solid in 2015, muscling 8% higher to $80.26 -- just below its all-time peak of $80.64 from Monday. Traders on the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX are eyeing more upside, too, buying to open 17 calls for each put during the last 50 sessions. This ratio ranks in the bullishly skewed 92nd percentile of its annual range. Looking ahead, McCormick & Company, Incorporated is scheduled to report earnings one week from today.

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Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are pointed lower this morning, on reports that Greece's latest reform proposal has been rejected by its creditors. Among the equities in focus are entertainment provider Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), food distribution concern SYSCO Corporation (NYSE:SYY), and real estate power Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN).

• Once again, NFLX is set for a big day. This time, the shares are pointed 2.7% higher in electronic trading, after the company announced a 7-for-1 stock split. Netflix, Inc. shareholders have had a wonderful few months. With today's projected gains, the stock will have more than doubled in 2015. However, 10 brokerage firms still rate the equity a "hold" or worse, while NFLX's average 12-month price target sits at just $615.89, a discount to yesterday's close at $681.19. It wouldn't be surprising to see bullish analyst attention send the shares even higher.


• A judge has put SYY's merger with US Foods on hold for the time being, saying the deal needs further antitrust review. The stock has been trending lower this year, dropping 5.3% to trade at $37.59, and now appears to be facing overhead pressure from its 80-day moving average. Short sellers are likely happy about this morning's developments. The almost 25 million SYSCO Corporation shares sold short represent almost eight sessions of trading, going by the equity's normal volumes.


• LEN is gaining ahead of the open, picking up 6.3% after the company reported strong fiscal second-quarter numbers. Lennar Corporation has managed a 19.4% year-over-year lead, but the shares have encountered resistance in the $50 area during their last two breakout attempts. After closing at $49 yesterday, however, the stock appears ready to take out the half-century mark, which could switch roles to act as support going forward. With LEN's consensus 12-month price target not sitting too far away at $51.24, the stock could be in store for some price-target hikes. In fact, UBS raised its target to $50 from $45 just this morning. Extended gains would put the shares near the eight-year high of $53.67 they hit in early April. 

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Analysts are weighing in on automaker General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), financial firm Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), and commodity concern Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on GM, C, and ABX.

• Goldman Sachs downgraded GM to "neutral" from "buy," and cut its price target to $40 from $47, amid slowing growth both domestically and in China. Additionally, the brokerage firm upwardly revised its outlook on Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), saying it prefers the F over GM. Since late April, GM has been bouncing between $34.50 and $36.50. Should the shares of General Motors Company continue these technical struggles -- the equity was last seen off 1.6% at $35.73 -- another round of bearish brokerage notes could be on the horizon. Currently, 62% of covering analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating, with not a single "sell" to be found. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $42.63 stands in record-high territory.


• C saw its rating cut to "hold" from "buy" at Deutsche Bank overnight, sending the shares 1% lower at the open. Longer term, the stock is up 22% since hitting its Jan. 16 year-to-date low of $46.60 to trade at $56.67, and hit a six-year high of $57.64 in yesterday's session. Option traders have been betting on higher highs in recent months, and have been buying to open calls over puts at a near-annual-high clip. Specifically, Citigroup Inc's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 2.45 ranks in the 90th annual percentile.


• Credit Suisse chimed in on a number of mining names, and for ABX, this resulted in a price-target cut to $12.50 from $13. On the charts, the stock has been in a long-term downtrend, shedding more than 37% year-over-year. More recently, the equity has encountered a handful of stiff rejections from its descending 200-day moving average, and was last seen lingering near $11.12. Short-term speculators, meanwhile, have been more put-skewed than usual toward Barrick Gold Corporation. The security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.76 ranks higher than 70% of all similar readings taken in the past year.

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To the dismay of Spotify and Pandora Media Inc (NYSE:P), the streaming music scene has been all the rage of late, thanks to new ventures from hip-hop mogul Jay-Z and tech titan Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). While the former's Tidal has had a shaky start -- and just lost its second CEO -- Apple Music, a $10-per-month service, will debut on June 30. Just days ahead of AAPL's launch, Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) unveiled a free tier of its streaming arm Google Play Music -- which will be funded by ad revenue, and can be accessed immediately on the Internet (and later this week on Android and iOS).

In what can only be considered a poke at AAPL, GOOGL made sure to stress the new service -- which will include the technology of Songza, a music start-up the company acquired last year -- will compensate artists. The iPhone purveyor came under fire earlier this week for its royalty payment plan, a blaze Taylor Swift was quick to put out.

Yesterday's announcement follows a string of headlines about possible new ventures for Google, including a rumored partnership with smartphone maker BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) and a potential buyout bid for real estate issue Zillow Group Inc (NASDAQ:Z). Additionally, the company announced recently it is throwing its hat in the gaming ring, creating direct competition for Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

On the charts, the stock has been choppy since hitting its most recent high of $584.70 in late April. This week -- despite the broader Nasdaq Composite (COMP) exploring record highs -- GOOGL has stalled out in the $565 region, and was last seen lingering near $560.84.

Option traders, meanwhile, have grown increasingly skeptical of this lackluster price action. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GOOGL's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.71 ranks in the 86th annual percentile. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster-than-usual clip.

Outside of the options pits, however, sentiment is more optimistic toward Google Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Of the 28 analysts covering the shares, 23 maintain a "buy" or better rating, with not a single "sell" to be found. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $639.54 stands in record-high territory.

Among the companies about to step up to the earnings plate tomorrow are blue chip Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), semiconductor stock Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), and book peddler Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE:BKS). Below, we'll take the pre-earnings temperature of NKE, MU, and BKS.

• NKE, which received a price-target hike to $121 from $118 at Goldman Sachs today, will report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings tomorrow night. Historically speaking, the shares have averaged a single-session post-earnings move of 4.1% over the past eight quarters, while the options market is currently pricing in a swing of 3.7%, based on short-term at-the-money (ATM) straddle data. Technically speaking, it's been a strong 12 months for Nike Inc, which has jumped 40% atop its supportive 10-week moving average to trade at $107.07-, and hit an all-time high of $107.45 on Monday. Regardless, option buyers have been focused on long puts over calls in recent months, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). NKE's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.79 sits just 12 percentage points from an annual peak.


• MU has been far less successful on the charts, shedding nearly 31% of its value this year to hover around $24.27. In fact, on June 15, the stock hit an annual low of $23.70. As such, Micron Technology, Inc. has been getting hit with bearish brokerage notes lately, including a trio of price-target cuts today from the likes of Needham (to $40), Bernstein (to $45), and BofA-Merrill Lynch (to $40). Considering 21 of 26 analysts still consider the stock a "buy" or better, and its consensus 12-month price target of $35.67 stands in territory not charted since late December, additional negative attention may be on the way -- especially if the company disappoints in the confessional tomorrow night. Speaking of which, on average, MU has posted a one-day move of 5.3% in the session adjacent to its last eight quarterly reports. Based on the equity's near-term ATM straddle, a 6.6% shift is expected this time around.


• BKS will take the earnings stage bright and early tomorrow, and the options market is pricing in a 7.8% post-event move -- roughly in line with historical numbers. On the charts, the stock has been impressive, muscling almost 15% higher in 2015 to trade at $26.66, and hitting a six-year high of $27.10 yesterday. This upward momentum could have short sellers feeling the heat. A lofty 16.3% of Barnes & Noble, Inc.'s float is sold short, which would take more than three weeks to buy back, at typical daily trading levels.

There's just one week to go before 2015 is halfway over, and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is up just over 3% on the year. That's not all that exciting, but it's not dreadful over a six-month period. However, remember that this is the third year of a presidential cycle. Returns during these years have typically been astounding. The table below breaks down the SPX returns since 1949 for each year in the presidential cycle. The third year is head and shoulders better than any of the other years. It averages a gain of 17% and has been negative just one time in 16 returns. Furthermore, the one down year was 2011, when the index was essentially even, slipping a mere 0.003%.

1st Half vs. 2nd Half: The table below summarizes the SPX returns for the first half and second half of the year for each of the presidential cycle years. In the third year of the cycle, the heavy lifting is typically done in the first half of the year. The first half averages double-digit returns, and has been positive every single time (16 years). The second half returns are pretty much in line with the other years. As far as these years go, this year seems to be a very sub-par year.

Finally, this last table shows the first-half, second-half, and full-year returns for the SPX for every third year of the presidential cycle since 1949. How bad is the current year's return compared to these? As far as the third year of a presidential cycle goes, this has been the worst first half of a year since 1951.

You know that long-awaited CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) pop, the one everyone is always anticipating? It looks like we may have to keep anticipating, at least for a couple more weeks. 

And no, that has nothing to do with the never-ending Greek drama, or any of the next drivers of market volatility that Michael Santoli lays out here. Rather, it's just the calendar. We have just entered the seasonally worst time of year for implied volatility (IV). 

Way back in 2008, I ran numbers for my book (which oddly has yet to produce a movie deal). At the time, weekly options were but a blip on some MBA's screen, and options essentially traded almost solely on the month cycles. And as such, there were volatility tendencies related to the time until expiration. Nickel Version: The earlier in the monthly cycle (i.e., the further away from expiration), the more sluggish the options. Further, different monthly cycles had different tendencies -- something that still exists today. And finally, imminent holiday breaks tended to depress volatility. 

Throw it all together, and we have the perfect seasonal storm for sluggish options. At least, we did back in 2008. 

I divided each expiration cycle into two "halves." The first "half" was either the first two weeks of a four-week cycle, or the first three weeks of a five-week cycle (hey, I probably said there would be no math). And then I looked at mean and median VIX levels of each half-cycle. Since I used cycles and not calendar months, the first "half" of each cycle is mostly in the calendar month prior (i.e., by my 2008 definition, we're now in the first half of July). 

Long story short, of the 24 half-cycles of the year, the first half of July (now) had a mean VIX of 17.04 and a median VIX of 16.18. Both those readings were the lowest of any half-cycle. That is to say, as of 2008, the first 2-3 weeks of the July cycle -- basically the time between June expiration and Independence Day -- saw the cheapest VIX of the year. 

Nothing in recent years has changed that. The importance of the monthly expiration day has waned, but the calendar really hasn't. We saw multi-year VIX lows in 2014, right before the July 4 weekend. There's just typically not much going on that moves markets this time of year, and traders tend to worry more about paying extra time decay than they worry about a big market gap.

That's not to say VIX absolutely, positively won't pop in the next couple of weeks. Just that it's an improbable event. 

And actually, it's not a terrible time to start buying actual options. I also looked at the relationship of median IV to median realized volatility (RV) across the 12 monthly cycles, and the ratio in July was about 1.2. Yes, that means options are "overpriced," but they're ALWAYS overpriced vs. RV. In fact, they were less overpriced in July than in any other cycle. So, even though IV is unlikely to pop in our immediate future, options are probably cheap enough to pay for actual RV.

Yada yada yada… If you still think that VIX pop is coming around the corner, wait until next week and buy some actual good old-fashioned options. 

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Greece continues to drive global markets, with Asian benchmarks settling higher on hopes a financial agreement will be reached before the fiscally strapped nation's June 30 debt repayment deadline. In China, another volatile session sent the Shanghai Composite 2.5% higher, thanks to a rally in real estate names and a flood of bullish headlines from government-run media outlets. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei added 0.3% -- and hit an 18-year high along the way -- after the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes signaled optimism over an economic recovery. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also tacked on 0.3%, while South Korea's Kospi rose 0.2%.

European markets are mixed at midday, following reports that eurozone finance ministers rebuffed Greece's latest debt proposal. Eurogroup officials are slated to meet later today to discuss the reform measures. On the economic front, Germany's Ifo business climate survey declined in June, while France's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6%. At last check, London's FTSE 100 is up 0.3%, while the French CAC 40 is down 0.4%, and the German DAX is off 1%.