Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Sep 18, 2019 at 9:58 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is trading up 0.2% at $221.20, after Wedbush said more than 185 million iPhone 11 units will be shipped in the company's 2020 fiscal year, driven by strong underlying demand in China. Still, the brokerage firm also said pre-ordering has been good in the U.S., while adding that the iPhone remains the "hearts and lungs" of the company.

AAPL has been trending higher in recent weeks thanks to a bounce from the 50-day moving average, last week grabbing its highest close of 2019. However, short-term options traders are put-heavy on the tech giant, based on the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.24. Not only does this show that put open interest in the front three-months' series of options outweighs call open interest, but the 82nd annual percentile ranks shows such a put-skew is rare.

Perspective options traders should note that the Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for AAPL of 24% ranks in the 21st annual percentile, showing relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. The shares have shown a tendency to make big moves in the past year, too, since the Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) comes in at 95.

Another tech name to watch today is Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU). The stock is down 6.5% at $140.77, following news of Comcast's (CMCSA) new streaming box. This is overshadowing a giant price-target hike to $170 from $119 at Guggenheim. ROKU shares could bounce back quickly, though, since they're seemingly finding familiar support at the $140 level.

Bears have been moving in on the equity, with short interest rising 18.8% in the last two reporting periods. But short interest has been high for a while on Roku, and it's up more than 350% year-to-date.

Published on Sep 18, 2019 at 10:31 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of pharmaceutical issue vTv Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:VTVT) are up 3.5% at $1.78 this morning, following promising results for the company's mid-stage study of its diabetes treatment, TTP399. VTVT said the new therapy was able to reduce daily mealtime bolus insulin doses by 23%. The equity is eyeing its highest close in three months, in response. 

What's more, VTVT is once again testing its footing atop its 200-day moving average -- a trendline it has only closed north of one time since March. But while the security has seen an impressive surge in September so far, tacking on almost 40% this month, it is still off roughly 34% for the year.

While analyst coverage of VTVT is relatively quiet, the two on board are extremely bullish. Both call the penny stock a "buy," and the consensus 12-month target price is all the way up at $6.50 -- over three times the security's current perch. 

VTVT's solid September gains could have some short sellers falling off the bullish bandwagon, too. Short interest has dropped 4.7% in the last reporting period. The 1.4 million shares sold short still represent a whopping 18.1% of the VTVT's available float and would take seven days to cover at its average pace of trading, which could put some wind at the equity's back, should more of these pessimistic positions begin to unwind. 

 

 

Published on Sep 18, 2019 at 2:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

With all eyes on the Fed interest rate decision, stocks are tentatively lower at last check. Three stocks in particular making moves are technology solutions specialist CDW Corporation (NASDAQ:CDW), pet supply name Chewy Inc (NYSE:CHWY), and drugmaker PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT). Below, we'll take a look at what's moving the shares of CDW, CHWY, and PTCT. 

CDW Joins S&P 500, Clocks New High 

Tech name CDW is soaring today, on news it will be joining the S&P 500 (SPX), replacing Total System Services (TSS), effective prior to the open on Monday, Sept. 23. The stock hit a new high of $122.20 earlier, last seen up 6.9% at $121.69.

Options players are taking notice. The equity's typically quiet options pits have seen 1,842 calls and 1,691 puts exchange hands so far -- 19 times what is usually seen at this point. The September and October 120 puts are most active, where new positions are being initiated. 

CHWY Stock Bites The Dust After Earnings

CHWY stock hit an all-time low of $27.38 earlier, following the company's second-quarter financial report. The company announced a loss of 21 cents per share -- more than its year-ago loss. Chewy cited transaction-related costs and a share-based compensation charge totaling $43.8 million for the bigger loss, but offered a current-quarter net sales forecast that topped analysts' consensus estimate. The stock is now down 8.5% at $27.67.

Jefferies and Instinet both issued price-target cuts, to $34 and $32, respectively, putting the consensus 12-month price target at $36.40 -- still a 32% premium to current levels. Seven of the 12 analysts in coverage call CHWY a "hold," while the five others say it's a "buy" or better, which could lead to more bear notes should this negative price action continue.  

PTCT Stock Down Big on Public Offering

PTC Therapeutics announced that it would be offering 2.5 million shares of its common stock at $40.40 per share -- a 6.7% discount to last night's close. The firm also said the net proceeds from the public offering will be used to fund its gene therapy and splicing programs. The stock is down 11.6% at $38.29, testing its footing at the 200-day moving average, and eyeing its biggest one-day drop since June 2018. 

The dip landed PTCT on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list today, and its options pits are busy with 4,341 puts and 1,942 calls across the tape so far -- 51 times the intraday average. The September 37 and December 30 puts appear to be the most popular, with fresh positions being initiated at both. 

Short sellers already had a firm grip on the stock, prior to today's slip, though. The 3.91 million shares sold short make up 9.4% of the stock's available float, and represent 8.4 times the average pace of trading. 

Published on Sep 19, 2019 at 9:38 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Cloud communications specialist Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) is in the bullish spotlight today, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to "overweight" from "equal weight." The brokerage firm also raised its price target on TWLO to $135 from $130, implying expected upside of about 20% to Wednesday's close at $112.55.

On the charts, TWLO stock sports a healthy year-to-date gain of 26% -- but on the other hand, the shares have taken a 25% haircut from their July 26 closing high at $149.95, thanks in part to recent, widespread weakness in cloud stocks. In the process of pulling back sharply from that all-time closing peak, Twilio broke below formerly reliable support at its 126-day and 180-day moving averages, the former of which has since switched roles to act as resistance.

However, Morgan Stanley thinks the stock's sharp correction is an opportunity. "We think the recent pullback misses that new applications growth can help extend the growth period for the name and help long term margin profile," wrote the brokerage firm in a note to clients, citing Twilio's "experienced management team ... strong platform and vision" as some of the drivers behind its bullish thesis.

Most analysts are already firmly planted in the bullish camp when it comes to TWLO. Ahead of today's upgrade, the equity had garnered 14 "strong buys" and two "buys," along with just two "holds" and zero "sells." So while the stock is up 3.6% at $116.65 in early trading, additional brokerage boosts may be few and far between in the near term.

Meanwhile, short sellers are deeply entrenched. Short interest on Twilio rose by nearly 26% in the past two reporting periods, and now accounts for 15.8% of the stock's float. Today's early jolt suggests some of these bears may be rattled -- but with TWLO still on the rocks, technically speaking, the shorts haven't lost control of this name just yet.

 

Published on Sep 19, 2019 at 9:50 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock has made a definitive move higher this morning -- up 1.4% at $140.50 -- on news the tech giant's board of directors approved an 11% quarterly dividend hike and a new stock buyback program of up to $40 billion in share repurchases. MSFT also said its annual investor day will fall on Wednesday, Dec. 4, and unveiled a collaboration with Indian movie entertainment firm Eros International to develop a next generation online video platform.

This morning's upside is nothing new for MSFT, which is up 38.3% year-to-date, second only to Apple (AAPL) as the best Dow stock so far in 2019. The stock's 80-day moving average has served as a springboard for the shares, and today's pop puts Microsoft on track for a third straight gain -- which would mark its longest winning streak since early August.

There's plenty of optimism priced into the outperformer, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MSFT's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.76 ranks in the 93rd annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

The September 142 call has seen the biggest rise in open interest over this two-week time frame, with nearly 15,000 positions added. All signs suggest the bulk of these calls were bought to open, meaning options bulls are targeting a breakout above $142 by front-month expiration at the close tomorrow, Sept. 20.

 

 

Published on Sep 19, 2019 at 10:06 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Commodities
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) gapped lower at the open today, and are now trading down 13.9% at $10.72, after the company late Wednesday updated its third-quarter forecast to a loss of 35 cents per share -- arriving well below the consensus estimate for a loss of 7 cents. The firm cited falling steel prices and deteriorating market conditions in Europe for its gloomy outlook. 

Macquarie downgraded X by a couple of notches to "underperform" from "outperform," and slashed its price target in half to $9, while Credit Suisse trimmed its target to $8 from $9. This adds to the already bleak analyst sentiment toward X; prior to today, only two analysts in coverage had given the security a "buy" or better rating, while the other nine call it a "hold" or "sell."

X is well on pace for its third consecutive daily decline -- a move catalyzed by its declining 100-day moving average. In fact, this isn't the first time the stock has sunk after a run up to the trendline, with two other rally attempts stopped by this ceiling in 2019. This trendline resistance has really done a number on X, considering its 64% year-over-year deficit. 

The stock has already been put on the short sale restricted (SSR) list for today, but the longer-term negative price action has been drawing out plenty of shorts in recent weeks. During the last two reporting periods, short interest on U.S. Steel rose 54.6%. The 51.73 million shares sold short make up a hefty 30.6% of the stock's available float, and represent 4.5 times X's average daily trading volume. 

 

Published on Sep 19, 2019 at 10:08 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) are up 0.4% to trade at $107.37 today, after the retailer announced a new $5 billion share buyback plan, which will be completed in its 2020 fiscal year. Target also unveiled a quarterly dividend payment of 66 cents per share.

Target stock remains within striking distance of its Sept. 6 record high of $110.93. The shares have taken a breather since then, but found support at their ascending 20-day moving average. Overall, TGT is now up 63% in 2019, thanks in part to a huge earnings-induced bull gap in late August.

There's a tremendous amount of pessimism in the options pits. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows 1.17 puts have been bought to open for every call in the past 10 days, a ratio that ranks in the bearishly skewed 86th annual percentile.

Echoing this, near-term options traders appear positioned for a move to the downside, according to the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.09. This reading ranks in the 99th annual percentile, showing a rare put-skew among short-term options traders.

The good news for premium buyers is that the security’s Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22% ranks in the 14th annual percentile, indicating short-term options are relatively cheap, from a volatility perspective. Plus, the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 shows Target stock's strong tendency to make bigger-than-expected moves during the past year, relative to what the options market was pricing in.

Published on Sep 19, 2019 at 3:25 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Stocks On the Move

Stocks are pacing for a mixed finish this afternoon, with the Dow erasing early gains driven by Microsoft (MSFT) and upbeat economic data. Three other stocks on the move today are healthcare names Provention Bio Inc (NASDAQ:PRVB) and India Globalization Capital, Inc. (NYSEAMERICAN:IGC), as well as marijuana issue CannTrust Holdings Inc (NYSE:CTST). Below, we'll look at what's moving the shares of PRVB, IGC, and CTST. 

 PRVB Stock Plummets on Public Stock Offering

Provention Bio announced after yesterday's close that it would be selling 5 million shares of its common stock for $8 each -- a roughly 17% discount to last night's close -- in order to raise $40 million. Amgen (AMGN) pitched in, purchasing 2.5 million shares in a concurrent private placement at the offer price as part of a collaborative agreement. PRVB is eyeing its lowest close since gapping higher in mid-June, down 12.8% at $8.41. 

While the security found its way on to the short sale restricted (SSR) list with today's plunge, shorts have been piling on recently. Short interest shot up 65.8% in the last two reporting periods. Now, the 2.4 million shares sold short represent 9% of the stock's available float, or four times PRVB's average daily volume. 

Alzheimer's Drug Nod Lifts IGC Shares 

The shares of India Globalization Capital are up 6.5% at $1.15 after its experimental Alzheimer's formulation IGC-AD1 was approved by for a mid-stage study by the Institutional Review Board (IRC) in Puerto Rico. The penny stock surged to an eight-week high of $1.30 earlier before paring gains, but is still poised to close north of a recent ceiling at its descending 40-day moving average. 

IGC has been struggling on the charts since its mid-June bull gap and subsequent intraday spike just atop the $2.40 region. The penny stock is still down 45% since late February, but solid support at its $1 level has kept the healthcare concern from falling back to its pre-bull gap lows. 

Struggling CTST Stock Finds Brief Reprieve 

Canada-based pot stock CTST has been in hot water for some time now, moving in a downward trajectory since early July thanks to mounting regulatory issues regarding its grow operations. Today, despite news that Stenocare terminated its license agreement with CannTrust after the Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis Commission (AGLC) gave notice that it would return $1.3 million in CTST products to the company, the stock is up 11% to trade at $1.41 -- just one day after bottoming out at a record low of $1.13. 

Today's pop could be due to the fact that CTST fell into "oversold" territory yesterday, after plummeting 21% through the first three days of this week. The security's Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 28.5 Wednesday, often an indicator that a short-term bounce is in the cards. That said, the intraday rally in CTST today peaked at $1.53, shy of recent resistance at the stock's 20-day moving average at $1.65.

Published on Sep 19, 2019 at 4:38 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

The Fed meeting may have come and gone, but the final stretch of September still offers plenty of data for Wall Street to digest. The last full week of the month features the latest second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reading, along with more housing market data, and closely watched consumer spending stats.

On top of that, numerous Fed presidents will speak throughout the week, as investors await commentary and updated outlooks following last week's rate cut. And as if that's not enough, big names like Micron Technology (MU), Nike (NKE), and BlackBerry (BB) are set to step into the earnings confessional.

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

On Monday, Sept. 23, things kick off with Markit's flash composite purchasing managers index (PMI), as well as speeches from New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Cantel Medical (CMD) is one of the few confirmed earnings reports for the day.

Tuesday, Sept. 24, brings the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index. Nike, AutoZone (AZO), BlackBerry, CarMax (KMX), IHS Markit (INFO), Manchester United (MANU), and Nio (NIO) will all report earnings.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will take the mic at separate events on Wednesday, Sept. 25. In addition, weekly crude inventories and new home sales data are on deck. Earnings from AAR (AIR), H.B. Fuller (FUL), and KB Home (KBH) are due out.

The final second-quarter GDP reading will be the headline economic report on Thursday, Sept. 26, but we'll also hear the latest updates on international trade, pending home sales, and weekly jobless claims. Kaplan and Bullard will speak again in the morning, while Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are slated to make remarks in the afternoon. Traders can expect quarterly reports from Micron, Accenture (ACN), and Conagra Brands (CAG).

Durable goods orders, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, personal income, consumer spending, and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index will wrap up the week on Friday, Sept. 27. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak at an event in New York. There are no earnings reports of note.

Published on Sep 20, 2019 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Pivotal Research smacked Roku Inc (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock with a "sell" rating this morning, and set its price target on the stock at $60 -- a 55% discount to last night's close at $133.76. The brokerage firm said ROKU stock looked "overvalued despite the recent pullback," and said increased competition in the streaming space "will likely drive the cost of [over-the-top] OTT devices to zero."

In reaction, ROKU stock is down 5.1% to trade at $126.94, slicing through its 50-day moving average -- which served as a springboard for the shares back in May, and helped contain an early August pullback. It's already been a rough week for Roku, though, with the shares plunging 13.7% on Wednesday on reports of Comcast's (CMCSA) new streaming box. However, the equity has still more than quadrupled in 2019.

Options traders, meanwhile, have been targeting a monster move higher for the streaming stock. Specifically, the October 235 call is home to peak open interest in the soon-to-be front-month series, and data from the major options exchanges confirms notable buy-to-open activity here as recently as Sept. 10, when ROKU shares were trading near $144.

The highest ROKU stock has ever traded was $176.55, hit on Sept. 9, and from its current perch, the equity would need to rally nearly 76% for these calls to be in the money. Regardless of where Roku settles at the close on Friday, Oct. 18, when monthly October options expire, the most the call buyers stand to lose is the initial premium paid.

Published on Sep 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) are down 2.2% to trade at $280.20 this morning, after some cautionary words from Evercore ISI. Based on recent data checks,, which include a slowdown in app download growth in September, the brokerage firm warned that third-quarter international subscriber growth could be lower than expected for the second straight quarter. Netflix will report earnings after the close on Wednesday, Oct. 16. 

Netflix stock has now dropped 27% since its mid-July peak above $384. An earnings-induced bear gap shortly after those highs triggered the pivot, and the stock has carved out a channel of lower highs and lows since then. For the past month, the shares have consolidated below the $300 level, with the overhead 20-day moving average providing additional resistance.

Meanwhile, in the options pits, the focus has been centered around calls. The FAANG stock sports a top-heavy 10-day call/put volume of 1.43 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX).

Echoing this, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) sits at 0.80, which ranks in the bottom 4th percentile -- underscoring a very unusual call-skew among short-term speculators. Digging deeper, several options buyers have targeted the October 330 call over the past two weeks, perhaps betting on a big post-earnings rally from NFLX next month.

Published on Sep 20, 2019 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Commodities
  • Buzz Stocks

The energy sector is lighting up again today, thanks to well-received headlines for oil-and-gas name California Resources Corp (NYSE:CRC) and oilfield engineering specialist McDermott International Inc (NYSE:MDR). Both stocks are making big moves higher in early trading, regaining some lost ground after heavy losses earlier in the week.

Specifically, CRC has popped 17.9% this morning to trade at $11.68, after a company spokeswoman last night denied media reports that advisors had been brought on for purposes of restructuring or deleveraging debt. "As discussed on our earnings calls, we are actively looking at asset sales, royalty monetizations and other transactions similar to those we have done in the past to help us delever," said a statement provided to StreetInsider.

After plummeting 29.5% yesterday -- its biggest one-day drop since February 2016 -- CRC stock is once again on the south side of its 50-day moving average, despite today's opening bull gap. Prior to Thursday's massive sell-off, California Resources shares had strung together a three-day win streak atop this trendline on Saudi-related tailwinds -- their longest such run above this moving average since mid-July.

As for MDR, the shares got hammered for a 63.3% loss on Wednesday -- their worst day in at least a decade -- followed by a 26.9% plunge on Thursday, on similar reports that it had hired Alix Partners to guide a company turnaround. Today, however, MDR is trading up 62.7% at $2.57 out of the gate, bolstered by news that the company has attracted takeover interest in its Lummus tech business -- which could fetch up to $2.5 billion.

This rally is pushing MDR off its freshly tagged 16-year lows, and dragging its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of its latest trip into oversold territory. McDermott stock's RSI settled Thursday at a one-month low of 23.4, just eight trading days after this metric crested above 62.

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