Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Aug 27, 2019 at 9:36 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Retail name J. Jill Inc (NYSE:JILL) is in focus this morning, with the company reporting a strong second quarter this morning. The company posted revenue that beat analysts' expectations, citing positive traffic over the summer, and a smaller-than-expected loss for the period. The firm also lifted its full-year guidance. In response, JILL stock is up 2.4% after the open, following a more than 18% surge yesterday.

JILL is set for its second close atop its 60-day moving average since its late-May bear gap and subsequent record low of $1.24. Since this early June bottom, the equity managed to find a floor at its $1.60 region, and is now up nearly 87% since.

The security's recent success could attract some bull notes from the brokerage bunch. Right now, only one analyst calls JILL a "strong buy," while the rest have stuck it with a tepid "hold" rating. On the other hand, its 12-month consensus price target of $3.50 is a 47.1% premium to last night's close. 

Short interest has been in decline during the last two reporting periods, off roughly 7% from its all-time high of 7.52 million shares. The 6.98 million shares currently sold short, however, represents a massive 44.7% of the stock's available float. At JILL's average pace of trading it would take over 13 days to cover all these pessimistic positions, which could add tailwinds, should even more of these bearish bets begin to unwind. 

Published on Aug 27, 2019 at 9:50 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) are up 3.4% to trade at $5.79 this morning, after Wedbush named the video game maker to its "Best Ideas" list. The brokerage firm raved about the company's catalog of titles such as "Merge Dragons!" and "Empires & Puzzles," and noted that upcoming releases could drive growth through 2021. 

The bull note comes at an opportune time for Zynga stock, which heading into today was down nearly 16% from its Aug. 1 seven-year high of $6.65, as political pressure weighed on the video game sector. However, the shares seem to have found a springboard at their 160-day moving average, and are still up more than 45% in 2019. 

Short sellers continue to flock to the equity. Short interest increased by 72.8% in the two most recent reporting periods, to 71.95 million shares, the most since May 2015. This accounts for a healthy 8.4% of ZNGA's total available float, and 3.8 times the equity's average daily trading volume -- representing an ample amount of buying power that could hit the market, should the security keep climbing. 

Over in the options pits, calls dominate the picture. In the last 10 days, 23,589 long calls crossed at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), compared to just 1,259 puts. Plus, this ratio ranks in the elevated 79th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a greater-than-usual clip of call buying over put buying in the last two weeks. Given the amount of short interest tied up in the stock, it's possible some of this call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- could be shorts hedging against any additional upside.

The good news for options buyers -- regardless of motive -- is that the video game stock's near-term options are attractively priced. Zynga's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 36% is in just the 13th percentile of its annual range. In simpler terms, short-term options are pricing in relatively tame volatility expectations for ZNGA at the moment.

Published on Aug 27, 2019 at 10:07 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded Xerox Holdings Corp (NYSE:XRX) to "underweight" from "neutral," citing declining revenues. The brokerage firm also said Xerox's possible sale of its financing unit and its current capital allocation plan create short-term risk for XRX bondholders.

The skepticism toward XRX has picked up elsewhere on Wall Street, with short interest up 13.5% in the latest reporting period to 7.86 million shares -- the most since Dec. 1. These bearish bets account for just 3.6% of Xerox stock's available float, though, or 3.7 times the average daily pace of trading.

Meanwhile, the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.10 ranks in the 91st annual percentile. In other words, speculators are more put-heavy than usual among options expiring in three months or less.

XRX stock is down 0.8% today at $27.85 in reaction to today's bear note. Longer term, the shares are up roughly 41% year-to-date. And while the equity is down almost 24% from its July 3 18-month high at $36.57, it's found a foothold in the $27.00-$27.25 range, home to a late-January bull gap.

Published on Aug 27, 2019 at 1:51 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Tech Data Corp (NASDAQ:TECD) shares are falling sharply today after Citigroup cut its price target to $91 from $100. The brokerage firm put the stock on a list of names it believes are seeing negative catalysts, and expects the company's second-quarter results to come in at the lower end of the expected range. Citi believes TECD is still worthy of a tepid "neutral" rating because of the company's solid share buyback plan.

TECD stock was last seen trading down 4.9% at $81.79, extending a notable pullback below the 200-day moving average from earlier this month. This would be the security's lowest close since the first week of 2019.

tecd stock chart aug 27

Speaking of earnings, Tech Data's second-quarter report is due out the morning of Thursday, Aug. 29, and the shares could be in for volatile price action. That is, options traders are pricing in a post-earnings swing of 12.9% -- right in line with the two-year average post-earnings move of 13.1%.

As for sentiment, traders seem to be taking a bearish approach, since puts are piled up atop the top open interest positions list. The most popular contract on the distributions specialist is the September 95 put, followed by the 90 and 85 puts from the same series. The September 75 put is also not far behind. Overall, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 3.36 shows put open interest more than triples call open interest among contracts that expire within three months.

Published on Aug 27, 2019 at 3:04 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The U.S. stock market has erased its earlier lead on renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. Among individual names making volatile moves are burger chain Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB), generic drugmaker Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE:MNK), and software solutions firm SilverSun Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:SSNT). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of RRGB, MNK, and SSNT.

Red Robin Stock Sinks After Downgrade

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers stock is down 6.8% at $32.07, after BofA-Merrill Lynch downgraded the shares to "underperform" from "neutral." The brokerage firm thinks the company will fall short of consensus expectations in 2020.

This follows RRGB's well-received earnings report from Friday, with the company beating adjusted earnings and revenue estimates in its second quarter -- sending the security up 5.9%. That surge had the stock rallying into the $35-$36 region, which has kept a lid on the shares since an Oct. 19 bear gap.

There's plenty of skepticism priced into RRGB. While nearly 31% of its float is sold short, its 10-day put/call volume ratio of 3.25 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) registers in the 78th annual percentile. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Mallinckrodt Stock Shorts Stay in Control

Mallinckrodt stock hit a record low of $3.53 earlier, last seen down 15.4% at $3.57. This comes after a U.S. Court of Appeals in Delaware upheld a previous ruling that said Praxair did not infringe on MNK's patents for the respiratory treatment system, Inomax.

It's been a steady slide for MNK shares, down 90% year-over-year. Short sellers have been firmly in control amid this sell-off, too. Short interest is up 74% year-over-year to a record-high 42.72 million shares -- more than half the security's available float.

SilverSun Technologies Stock Soars After Mapadoc EDI Sale

SilverSun Technologies has jumped 48.4% to trade at $3.72, earlier tagging a new four-year high of $8.25. The burst of buying power comes after the New Jersey-based firm said its SWK Technologies unit is selling its proprietary software Mapadoc EDI division. SSNT CEO Mark Meller said the sale "gives us the resources to rapidly accelerate our growth plans."

Published on Aug 28, 2019 at 9:35 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of U.K.-based biotech Myovant Sciences Ltd (NYSE:MYOV) are popping this morning on a bull note from Goldman Sachs. The analyst initiated coverage on the stock with a "buy" rating, and a $20 price target -- more than double last night's close of $7.86. Goldman said the stock's recent dip provides a good entry point for buyers, and sees promise for the drugmaker's relugolix product. MYOV is up 6% at $8.33 in response, set for its highest close since July. 

Goldman's optimism is nothing new among the brokerage bunch. The security's consensus 12-month price target of $26 represents a level MYOV hasn't traversed in over a year. Plus, all seven analysts in coverage, prior to today, called the pharma stock a "strong buy."

This analyst sentiment seems to be a real case of rooting for the underdog, considering MYOV's 50% year-to-date deficit, and last month's all-time low of $6.60. Since this bottom, however, the equity has managed to tack on 26.2%, with the 30-day moving average acting as support of late. Plus, MYOV is set to finish atop its 60-day moving average for the first time in four months. 

Short sellers have remained interested, though, judging by the 40.2% surge in these pessimistic positions during the last two reporting periods. The 3.02 million shares sold short is a record high for MYOV, and represents 9.7% of the stock's float. What's more, it would take nine days to cover all these bearish bets at the security's average pace of trading.

 

 

Published on Aug 28, 2019 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) stock is down 11.1% to trade at $133.57, after the AutoCAD maker cut its full-year forecast, citing macro uncertainty amid U.S.-China trade tensions. This is offsetting the software concern's second-quarter earnings and revenue beats, and has ADSK stock on track for its biggest one-day percentage loss since Nov. 29, 2017, when it dropped 15.9%.

Analyst reaction has been swift, with at least eight brokerages cutting their ADSK price targets. Wedbush set the lowest price target at $149 -- down from $164 -- well below the average 12-month price target of $174.30. No downgrades have come through yet, with 11 of 16 analysts continuing to maintain a "buy" or better rating on the stock.

This optimism has been seen in the options pits, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), ADSK's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.67 ranks in the 86th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Looking closer at the charts, Autodesk stock rallied hard off its late-December low near $118, eventually topping out at a record high of $178.95 on May 1. The shares have pulled back dramatically in August amid sector-related headwinds, and today's drop puts ADSK on track for its worst monthly performance since last October.

Published on Aug 28, 2019 at 10:03 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Monster Beverage Corp (NASDAQ:MNST) are up 1.3% to trade at $57.33 this morning, after being named a "top pick" at Credit Suisse. The brokerage firm glowed about the company's Reign performance energy drink, and said MNST stock's recent six-week drop makes for an attractive entry point for investors, calling the shares "cheap."

Earlier in the summer, the $66 level -- home to MNST's Feb. 28 annual high of $66.38 -- kept a tight lid on any stock breakouts. The latest rejection from this area in early August -- not to mention a poorly received earnings report -- has the shares down 11% this month, and trading in a tight range between $56-$58, with the 200-day moving average emerging as a recent ceiling.

In the options pits, the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.65 ranks in the 94th annual percentile. In other words, speculators are more put-heavy than usual, looking at options expiring in three months or less.

The good news for options buyers is that Monster's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) was perched at 27% and registers in the 17th percentile of its annual range. This indicates the equity's front-month at-the-money options have priced in lower volatility expectations just 17% of the time over the last year.

Plus, MNST has certainly been an attractive target for those buying premium during the past year, in the sense that it's made bigger moves than what the options market was pricing in. This is according to the security's elevated Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) reading of 88 out of a possible 100.

Published on Aug 28, 2019 at 10:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU) is trying to bounce back after yesterday closing at its lowest point since April, last seen trading up 0.5% at $16.63. Helping JBLU's case is a bull note out of Deutsche Bank, which called the stock's recent pullback an attractive entry point. Most other analysts have a "hold" or "sell" rating on the airline name.

There's plenty of pessimism elsewhere, too. Short interest exploded by 67% in the last two reporting periods, putting four days' worth of buying power in these bears' hands, based on average trading volumes.

Options traders have also taken a put-skewed approach. For instance, the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) comes in at 1.29, and ranks in the 94th annual percentile, showing near-term put open interest outweighs call open interest by a wider-than-normal amount. Indeed, peak open interest is at the September 18 put.

Put volume is blowing up out of the gate today, too, with heavy trading at the September 16 put. Overall, more than 1,300 puts have already traded in the first hour of the day, compared to a daily average of just 661.

JetBlue stock may have been due to bounce anyway, since its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is deep in oversold territory at 24. Plus, the $15.50-$16.50 range has been an area of support during the past year, with the shares right now hovering near the $5 billion market cap level.

Published on Aug 28, 2019 at 11:50 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

J.P. Morgan Securities initiated coverage on DouYu International Holdings Ltd (NASDAQ:DOYU) with an "overweight" rating and a $13 price target -- a 50% premium to last night's close at $8.64. Analyst Daniel Chen waxed optimistic over the Chinese gaming platform's position to capitalize on China's esports boom. Additionally, Chen said DOYU stock's sell-off after its mid-July Nasdaq debut is overdone, and traders should "buy the dip on expectations for new game launches" into early 2020.

DOYU shares initially ticked higher out of the gate, but were last seen down 0.7% at $8.58. The stock opened for trading at $11.02 on July 17, below the initial public offering (IPO) price of $11.50 per American depositary share (ADS). It's been a steady slide since then, with the stock's newly formed 20-day moving average emerging as resistance.

The analysts already covering DOYU stock already share J.P. Morgan Securities' bullish outlook, with all three maintaining a "buy" or better rating. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $12.63 is a 45.8% premium to current trading levels.

Short-term options traders, on the other hand, have struck a decidedly bearish tone toward the Chinese stock. DOYU's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is perched at 1.14, signaling a put-skew in the front three-months' series of options.

The November 7.50 put is home to peak open interest, and data from Trade-Alert points to buy-to-open activity here. By purchasing these puts, speculators are betting on DOYU breaching $7.50 by November options expiration. The lowest the shares have ever traded was $7.77 on Aug. 6.

Published on Aug 28, 2019 at 2:13 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The U.S. stock market has flipped higher, led by a surge in energy stocks. Among individual stocks making volatile moves are Chinese names Luokung Technology Corp (NASDAQ:LKCO) and MDJM Ltd (NASDAQ:MDJH), as well as alternative energy issue Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of LKCO, MDJH, and CSIQ.

LKCO Stock Plummets on M&A News

Luokung Technology stock is among the worst of the Nasdaq today, down 13.1% at $6.25, after the wireless software concern announced a deal to buy eMapgo Technologies for about $119 million, pending the firm's ability to raise the necessary funds. LKCO shares are pacing for their worst day since June, and have given up nearly 38% in August, pressured beneath their 10-day moving average.

The equity began trading on the Nasdaq in early January, and peaked at $98.39 shortly after its debut. The gains didn't last long, however, with LKCO bottoming at $4.95 in early June, and subsequently bumping up against resistance in the $10 area.

MDJH Stock Surges on Real Estate Contract

MDJM Ltd said it entered into a real estate contract with Taida Xincheng Real Estate Co, allowing the firm to be the primary real estate services agency for a project in Chengdu. As a result, MDJH is among the best stocks on the Nasdaq today, up 57% at $3.91, and earlier peaked at $6.17 -- more than double yesterday's close. What's more, it's pacing to be MDJH's best session ever.

The Chinese equity debuted on the Nasdaq at $4.75 in early January -- less than its initial public offering (IPO) price of $5 per share -- and peaked at $7.89 on Jan. 10. MDJH fell to a record low of $2 by mid-June, but today is pacing for its highest close in almost six months.

CSIQ Bounces on Cash Injection

Canadian Solar shares are up 2.2% at $23.05, after the company secured $120 million in financing for solar power projects in Brazil. CSIQ stock has been in a channel of higher lows since mid-2018, gaining more than 68% over the past year.

A short squeeze could help CSIQ on its next leg higher, too. Short interest represents 7.2% of the equity's total available float, and would take nearly a week to buy back, at the stock's average daily trading volume.
Published on Aug 29, 2019 at 9:27 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Three stocks to watch this morning because they're making big moves on the charts are Appliance Recycling Centers of America, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCI), Solid Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:SLDB), and Box Inc (NYSE:BOX). Let's jump right into the action and see how ARCI, SLDB, and BOX shares are trading early on.

ARCI is one of the biggest pre-market winners so far, set to open up 40.7% thanks to the company's announcement that it's seen "significant increases in orders in its recycling division." The stock has made several huge moves this year, including on Tuesday when it jumped to as high as $9.24, but closed at $4.02. Yesterday's close was $3.93, with the shares recently finding support at the 200-day moving average.

SLDB stock, meanwhile, is pacing for a sharp pullback, down 8.1% before the open. Sparking the losses was a downgrade to "sell" from "neutral" at Citigroup, which comes after the equity enjoyed an upgrade last week that had it at multi-month highs. As of Wednesday's close at $9.09, the security had lost more than three-fourths of its value in the past year.

Finally, BOX is getting crushed after the company's quarterly report. The cloud concern announced better-than-expected second-quarter results, but investors are more concerned with its weak outlook for 2020. In response, the shares are set to open down 7.7%, which would have them testing three-year-low territory.

BOX has already managed to make put traders nice profits, and now short sellers are getting in on the action. More specifically, short interest rose 7.8% in the past reporting period. And while most brokerages still have bullish ratings, Craig-Hallum this morning downgraded its rating to "hold" from "buy," and dropped its price target to $15 from $22.

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