Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Oct 31, 2014 at 7:45 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Among the stocks attracting attention from options traders lately are fuel cell specialist Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG), virtual security firm FireEye Inc (NASDAQ:FEYE), and restaurant chain Zillow Inc (NASDAQ:Z). Below, we'll break down how options buyers are positioning themselves, and how much speculators are willing to pay for their bets on PLUG, FEYE, and Z.

  • Calls have been quite popular on PLUG lately, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio stands at 38.86 -- not far from its freshly tagged multi-year high of 43.96. Plug Power Inc has vaulted to a gain of 190% in 2014, but has been churning close to the $4.50 level for the past month (and ended Thursday squarely at $4.49). During the coming weeks, speculators are apparently banking on a continuation of this muted price trend. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 77% ranks in the slim 7th percentile of its annual range, as front-month options have rarely priced in lower volatility expectations.

  • FEYE sports a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 7.36 on the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, which outranks 84% of comparable readings from the last year -- indicating a stronger-than-usual preference toward bullish bets over bearish during the past couple of weeks. This trend coincides with a bounce higher for FEYE shares, which have gained 35.6% from their Oct. 13 annual low of $24.81, ending Thursday's session at $33.63. Looking ahead, FireEye Inc is set to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes next Tuesday, Nov. 4, but front-month options are still fairly priced. The security's SVI stands at 74%, in the middling 48th annual percentile.

  • Z is also a favorite among call players, having racked up a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.51 on the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX. This ratio ranks higher than 88% of other such readings over the past year, pointing to a pronounced bullish skew among speculative players. Traders may be optimistic for a bounce from the century mark, as the $100 level has so far supported the stock's pullback from its July peak of $164.90. In fact, Z shares settled at $104.24 yesterday, up 27.5% year-to-date. Zillow Inc will announce its third-quarter results after the close next Wednesday, Nov. 5, but front-month options aren't exactly pricing in a major move. The stock's SVI checks in at 58%, in the tame 30th annual percentile.
Published on Oct 27, 2014 at 2:33 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is China-based e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), as traders roll the dice on a short-term struggle near the round-number century mark.

Most Active Options Table

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd is trading 2.6% higher today at $98.24, after Jefferies started the stock with an upbeat "buy" rating and a $118 price target -- territory yet to be charted by the Wall Street freshman. This forecast for a move above the century mark just echoes a recent trend witnessed among the brokerage bunch, but today's options activity reveals a number of traders are at odds with this outlook.

Taking a quick step back, calls are trading at two times the average intraday pace. Amid this accelerated activity -- and with earnings due out next week -- BABA's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has surged 7.8% to a record peak of 46%, signaling elevated demand for short-term contracts.

Drilling down, BABA's weekly 10/31 100-strike call is most active, with 10,522 contracts on the tape at last check. The majority of these have crossed at the bid price, IV is up 4.8 percentage points, and volume outstrips open interest, suggesting new short positions are being initiated. By writing the calls, speculators expect BABA to stay beneath $100 through Friday's close, when the weekly series expires. Delta on the call is docked at 0.35, indicating a 35% chance the position will be in the money at week's end.

As touched upon, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) will take its inaugural turn in the earnings confessional ahead of next Tuesday's open. For the company's third quarter, Wall Street is calling for a per-share profit of 48 cents.

Published on Oct 27, 2014 at 2:07 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Three stocks seeing notable options activity today are accessories designer Coach Inc (NYSE:COH), chemical expert Huntsman Corporation (NYSE:HUN), and blue chip Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE). Here's a look at how today's options traders have been placing their bets on these three names.

  • Coach Inc (NYSE:COH) is up 0.4% to trade at $36.10 this afternoon, with the company slated to report fiscal first-quarter earnings tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, in the stock's options pits, contracts are changing hands at quadruple the usual intraday rate, and COH's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has popped 3.4% to 39.6%, suggested elevated demand for short-term strikes. Seeing the most activity is the equity's weekly 10/31 38-strike call, where a sizable portion of the 3,363 contracts exchanged so far have been bought to open, as speculators gamble on end-of-week upside. Historically, the shares -- down roughly 36% in 2014 -- haven't ended a week atop the $38 level since mid-June. However, last time COH entered the quarterly confessional, the shares rallied 4.3% in the session following an earnings beat.

  • Huntsman Corporation (NYSE:HUN) has tumbled 5.8% to hover near $23.08, after reporting disappointing third-quarter sales -- though per-share earnings topped expectations (subscription required). In the options pits, puts are flying off the shelves at 14 times the intraday norm. The in-the-money November 24 put is HUN's most active strike, with nearly 4,500 contracts traded. Based on data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), at least some of these puts are being bought to open, as traders roll the dice on continued downside through front-month options expiration.

  • Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) is slightly lower this afternoon at $29.09, after ending an agreement to develop a painkiller for Pain Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTIE) in favor of a deal with DURECT Corporation (NASDAQ:DRRX). Meanwhile, ahead of tomorrow morning's third-quarter earnings report, puts are being exchanged at a slightly accelerated rate. Nevertheless, PFE's November 30 call is the most active strike, and appears to be seeing buy-to-open activity, as traders gamble on the stock to topple the round-number $30 level by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when front-month options expire.
Published on Oct 27, 2014 at 11:42 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the S&P 500 Index (SPX) components that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO), where weekly calls are being targeted.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

As we approach midday, Yahoo! Inc. options are trading at a nearly 30% mark-up to typical intraday levels. Moreover, weekly calls are in focus, making up eight of the 10 most active strikes. The weekly 11/28 44-strike call has seen the most action so far -- largely thanks to a 10,000-contract block that was exchanged just minutes ago, and appears to be tied to stock.

Meanwhile, the next most active option is the weekly 10/31 43.50-strike put, where roughly 6,900 contracts are on the tape. The majority crossed at the bid price, implied volatility is higher, and volume outstrips open interest, collectively suggesting sell-to-open activity -- a portion of which is confirmed by data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE). In sum, these put writers expect YHOO to maintain its perch atop $43.50 through the end of this week, when the weekly contracts expire.

On the charts, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) has added 2.5% so far to trade at $44.60, and earlier tagged a new 14-year high of $44.64. As such, delta on the put has plummeted to negative 0.23 from negative 0.49, meaning the options market is giving the put a less than 1-in-4 chance of being in the money at expiration.

Published on Oct 27, 2014 at 10:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:VNDA) is down 3% this morning at $10.77, after lowering its guidance -- and despite posting a narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss. In fact, the stock has been down by as much as 14.2% today -- and was placed on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list. Things were quite different last Friday, when the shares rallied 7.6%, prompting traders to flood VNDA's options pits.

Looking more closely at Friday's action, contracts crossed at triple the usual daily rate. Additionally, the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) spiked 15.6% to 109.3%, signaling elevated demand for short-term strikes.

Most active by a healthy margin was VNDA's November 13 call. Two-thirds of the 1,980 contracts traded did so at the ask price, IV popped, and open interest added 1,461 contracts over the weekend. All things considered, it's safe to assume new bullish bets were initiated at the out-of-the-money strike. Alternatively, it's possible the calls were bought to serve as an upside hedge, as 43.4% of the equity's float is sold short.

In a nutshell, Friday's buyers expect Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:VNDA) to topple $13 by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when front-month options expire. However, the stock hasn't explored these levels in more than a month. As such, delta on the call is just 0.24, denoting a slightly less than 1-in-4 chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

Published on Oct 27, 2014 at 10:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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The shares of Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD) are fractionally higher at $4.80 this morning, as traders weigh reports that the company -- along with peer CVS Health Corp (NYSE:CVS) -- recently disabled Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Apple Pay system. In the options pits, speculators are scrambling to bet on RAD's short-term trajectory.

Specifically, RAD's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has jumped 5.4% to 44.8%, underscoring the growing demand for short-term contracts. Calls have outnumbered puts by a margin of more than 2-to-1.

Digging deeper, it looks like bulls are buying to open the weekly 11/7 5-strike call, where IV rocketed 14.2 percentage points higher at the time of the biggest trade, and nearly all the contracts have crossed on the ask side. By purchasing the calls at a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of $0.10, the speculators will reap a reward if RAD topples $5.10 (strike plus VWAP) by the close on Friday, Nov. 7, when the weekly series expires -- which also encompasses Rite Aid's monthly sales release on Thursday, Oct. 30. Risk is limited to the initial premium paid for the calls, should RAD remain south of the strike through the option's lifetime.

Bears, meanwhile, are buying to open the weekly 11/28 4.50-strike put, at a VWAP of $0.15. In order to profit on the play, the buyers need RAD to breach $4.35 -- which would mark a new annual low -- by the closing bell on Friday, Nov. 28. Again, risk is capped at the VWAP, should the equity stay north of the strike through expiration.

On the charts, Rite Aid Corporation (NYSE:RAD) has shed more than 44% since touching a decade-plus peak of $8.61 in June. Nevertheless, ISI Group this morning launched coverage with a "buy" recommendation. However, RAD is no stranger to upbeat analyst attention; half the brokerage firms following the beleaguered equity maintain "buy" or better opinions, and the consensus 12-month price target of $6.75 represents expected upside of 41% to RAD's current price. Should the security continue to struggle, a flood of downbeat analyst attention could exacerbate selling pressure on the shares.

Published on Oct 27, 2014 at 10:06 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) added nearly 5% last week, thanks to a strong showing in the earnings confessional. Against this backdrop, one option speculator on Friday readjusted her long call position to gamble on additional upside for CAT in the near term.

Specifically, a sweep of 1,750 weekly 10/31 102-strike calls was bought to open in afternoon trading. This lot traded simultaneously with a symmetrical block of weekly 10/24 98-strike calls, which were set to expire at last Friday's close. In other words, it appears this trader may have rolled her bullish bet up and out one week, expecting the stock to rally past $102 by this Friday's close, when the weekly 10/31 series expires.

From a wider sentiment perspective, option traders have taken the bearish route toward an equity that's tacked on 7.7% in 2014 to trade at $97.78. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for example, the stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 2.08 ranks in the 97th annual percentile. Echoing this skepticism outside of the options pits is Raymond James, which cut its price target for Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) to $105 from $110 this morning, while underscoring its "market perform" rating.

Published on Oct 24, 2014 at 2:31 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is streaming video giant Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR), which is being targeted by short-term options bears ahead of Brazil's weekend elections.

Most Active Options Table

It's been a wild month for Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR), with the stock moving in concert with the speculation surrounding this Brazil's presidential election. On the last trading day before voters head to the polls on Sunday, optimism abounds -- and PBR's 7.5% pop today is proof.

It's quite a different story in the equity's options pits, though, with put volume running at two times what's typically seen at this point in the day. Meanwhile, the stock's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) has surged 14.9% to 122.2% -- in the 95th percentile of its annual range -- signaling elevated demand for the security's short-term contracts.

Most active is PBR's November 13 put, where 12,487 contracts have changed hands. A healthy portion of these ATM strikes have gone off at the ask price, and IV is up 10.3 percentage points, suggesting new positions are being purchased. Delta on the put is docked at negative 0.43, indicating a 43% chance the option will be in the money at the close on Friday, Nov. 21 -- when the front-month contracts expire.

From a wider sentiment perspective, today's accelerated put activity is just more of the same for a stock that's shed about 38% since hitting an annual high of $20.94 on Sept. 3, with the shares last seen near $13.05. In fact, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), PBR's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.41 ranks in the 94th annual percentile. Simply stated, puts have been bought to open over calls on Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA (ADR) (NYSE:PBR) with more rapidity just 6% of the time within the past year.

Published on Oct 24, 2014 at 2:19 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) has added 1.6% this afternoon to trade at $41.92. In fact, the shares have rallied sharply since hitting a month-to-date low of $35.82 on Oct. 15, tacking on 17%. Option traders are responding to this technical strength by rolling the dice on additional upside in the stock.

Taking a quick step back, GME calls are crossing at six times the level typically seen at this point in the day. Also, the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has popped 6.5% to 46.4%, suggesting short-term strikes are being targeted. Along those lines, the security's most active option is the front-month November 43.50 call, where nearly 5,500 contracts are on the tape.

Approximately 70% of these calls have traded at the ask price, and volume outstrips open interest, making it safe to assume bullish bets are being bought to open. This theory is also underscored by Trade-Alert and data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE). In short, these option bulls anticipate GME will topple $43.50 by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when the options expire.

It's worth noting that 31% of GameStop Corp.'s (NYSE:GME) float is sold short. At the stock's typical daily trading volume, these bearish bets would take more than three weeks to cover. In other words, if GME can sustain its upward momentum, there's plenty of sideline cash available to boost the shares even higher. A potential catalyst could be the company's upcoming turn in the earnings confessional, scheduled between Wednesday, Nov. 19, and Monday, Nov. 24.

Published on Oct 24, 2014 at 1:28 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Three stocks seeing notable options activity today are at-home beverage maker SodaStream International Ltd (NASDAQ:SODA), shipping issue DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS), and cloud concern NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N). Here's a look at how speculators are placing their bets on SODA, DRYS, and N.

  • After spending most of the morning churning around breakeven, SodaStream International Ltd (NASDAQ:SODA) took off shortly before lunchtime, and was last seen 15.9% higher at $24.55, following reports of a partnership with PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE:PEP). Against this backdrop, call players are once again flooding SODA's options pits, with volume running at 10 times the average intraday pace, and based on the equity's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) -- which is up 18% to 74.5% -- short-term contracts are in high demand. Drilling down, buy-to-open activity has been detected at SODA's November 25 call, as traders gamble on an extended rise over the next four weeks -- a time frame that encompasses the company's third-quarter earnings report, slated for release ahead of next Wednesday's open.

  • Having a decidedly different day is DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS), which has plunged 22% to churn near $1.57 -- music to the ears of option bears -- after the company priced its new share offering at a 30% discount to last night's closing price of $2.00. Today's bearish gap -- which landed the stock on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list -- only highlights DRYS' longer-term technical troubles, with the shares down 45% year-over-year. However, during that time, the stock has never traded below the $1 mark, which may be why one speculator today bet big on this level to hold as a floor over the next 15 months. Specifically, a massive block of 19,360 January 2016 1-strike puts was sold to open earlier for $0.20 apiece, resulting in an initial credit of $387,200 (number of contracts * premium collected * 100 shares per contract). This also represents the maximum reward on the play, should DRYS maintain its foothold atop the dollar mark through January 2016 options expiration.

  • NetSuite Inc (NYSE:N), meanwhile, has rallied 12.4% to $104.45 -- and moved back into the black on a year-to-date basis -- after offering up a better-than-expected quarterly earnings report and an upbeat outlook for the current quarter. What's more, the stock received no fewer than nine price-target hikes in the wake of its results, including one from Credit Suisse to $125 from $115, with the brokerage firm underscoring its "outperform" rating. On the options front, overall volume has soared to seven times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and following last night's scheduled event, the equity's 30-day ATM IV has plunged 23.8% to 33.4%. New positions are being initiated at the stock's November 115 call and November 90 put, but it appears both may be seeing sell-to-open activity.
Published on Oct 24, 2014 at 10:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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The 20 stocks listed in the table below are the S&P 500 Index (SPX) components that have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. One name of notable interest today is Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), where options traders are eyeing the $14 level.

Most Active Weekly Options Table

Ford Motor Company is off 3% this morning at $13.97, following its third-quarter earnings report. While the company posted an earnings beat, poor results in Europe and Russia -- as well as costs associated with transitioning its F-150 pickup to aluminum from steel -- are weighing on the shares.

Nevertheless, options traders are taking an upbeat approach to F, with calls crossing at a 46% mark-up to the average intraday rate, and outnumbering puts by a nearly 4-to-1 margin. What's more, the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility has edged 1.3% higher to 27.9%, signaling elevated demand for short-term strikes.

Looking more closely, F's two most action options are the weekly 10/31 and 11/14 14-strike calls, where more than 7,000 total contracts have been exchanged. The majority have traded at the ask price, and volume outstrips open interest, pointing to buy-to-open activity. In other words, these speculators anticipate Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) will muscle back atop $14 by the respective expiration dates.

Published on Oct 24, 2014 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Biopharmaceutical firm Arrowhead Research Corp (NASDAQ:ARWR) has struggled on the charts lately, exacerbated by a roughly 44% plunge on Oct. 8, due to poorly received mid-stage trial results of the company's hepatitis B treatment. Since then, the shares have largely churned around $7, closing last night at $6.92. However, one group of traders yesterday wagered on short-term upside for the stock.

Diving right in, calls were exchanged at a 26% mark-up to typical daily levels on Thursday. Also, ARWR's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility rose 8.6% to 132.7%, hinting at elevated demand for short-term strikes. In fact, eight of the security's 10 most active options belong to the front-month November series.

Leading the way was ARWR's November 9 call, where 2,227 contracts changed hands. Almost all traded at the ask price, and open interest jumped overnight, suggesting bullish bets were freshly initiated. In other words, these option players believe ARWR will topple $9 by the close on Friday, Nov. 21, when front-month options expire. Of course, it's possible some of these buyers are short sellers attempting to hedge, considering 27.4% of the stock's float is sold short.

On the fundamental front, the call's lifetime encompasses Arrowhead Research Corp's (NASDAQ:ARWR) fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, due out between Tuesday, Nov. 10, and Friday, Nov. 14. The Street is expecting a per-share loss of 24 cents from the biopharmaceutical company.

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