Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Sep 18, 2017 at 2:46 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Bernie's Content

The biotech sector has generated some keen interest lately, driven in no small part by the recent FDA approval of the first CAR T-cell therapy for cancer treatment. This development has been the focus of an L.A. Times front-page story, as well as the current "Closing in on cancer" Economist cover.

Against this backdrop, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) wrapped up the month of August by breaking above its July highs around $330 -- and in fact, during the 10-day stretch concluding Sept. 1, the fund outperformed the broad S&P 500 Index (SPX) by a solid 8%. To determine whether this biotech outperformance might have any greater implications for the market, Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal looked back at the returns following previous occasions where IBB/SPX relative strength has been at 8% or higher over a 10-day period.

Surprisingly, IBB relative strength has historically been more of a precursor for continued S&P strength. Since 2000, there have been 22 of these IBB outperformance signals -- and the S&P has consistently outperformed its average "anytime" returns following each, looking at time frames ranging from five days to six months. Plus, the percentage of positive returns also outpaces the norm over every time frame.

For example, the S&P's average five-day return since 2000 is 0.1%, with 55% of those returns positive. Following an IBB outperformance signal, the S&P racks up an average five-day return of 1%, with 68% positive. Over 21 days, the S&P averages a 0.4% return with 61% positive; following a signal, the index is up 2.4% on average, with 71% positive.

This S&P strength is no fleeting phenomenon, either, as the outsized gains and overwhelmingly positive returns continue to dwarf the norm over two-month, three-month, and six-month time frames. In fact, 126 days after an IBB outperformance signal, the S&P is up 3.3%, on average, with 75% of those returns positive. That compares pretty favorably to an average S&P 126-day return of 2.2% and 66% positive.

As for IBB itself, the fund also tends to exceed its "anytime" returns following these signals, albeit for shorter bursts of time than the S&P. IBB's five-day average returns post-signal are right in line with the usual, but its 21-day post-signal average return of 2.5% more than doubles the anytime result of 0.9%. After the two-month marker, though, IBB's momentum seems to taper off, with the average three-month and six-month returns after a signal falling short of their "anytime" counterparts. (Of course, if IBB's post-signal strength is quicker to wane than the S&P's, it's at least partially due to the fact that a non-trivial degree of IBB outperformance is a prerequisite for triggering these signals.)

So far, after this latest signal, the Sept. 1 finish for IBB at $335.84 has been the closing top, with the shares entering a period of apparent consolidation since. By contrast, the S&P has gained about 1% since its Sept. 1 close, and broke out above its early August high near 2,490 in the process (an achievement capped by Friday's photo finish north of 2,500). Notably, since 2016, the IBB post-performance stats have been fairly lackluster compared to the SPX's consistent outperformance -- and this seems to be occurring once again.

ibb vs spx daily 0915


Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, September 17.
Published on Sep 18, 2017 at 2:54 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are trading higher this afternoon, with the Dow eyeing its fifth straight record close. Among the names in the spotlight today are tech stock Ubiquiti Networks Inc (NASDAQ:UBNT), semiconductor stock Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT), and telehealth company Teladoc Inc (NYSE:TDOC). Here's a quick look at what is moving shares of UBNT, AMAT, and TDOC.

Citron Research: Ubiquiti CEO Reminds Us of Madoff

Ubiquiti Networks stock is down 6.9% to trade at $51.15, after Citron Research called the company a "total fraud," with allusions to Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Enron. The Citron report takes aim at CEO Robert Pera ("one name comes to mind -- MADOFF") and Ubiquiti's operating metrics, and warns that "it is only time [sic]  before the SEC launches the formal investigation and Ubiquiti will go down in infamy amongst the many other Wall Street Frauds." As a result, UBNT shares touched $47.78 earlier -- their lowest level since June 1 -- and landed on the short-sale restricted list.

The tech stock touched a record high of $67.80 in early August, thanks to a big bull gap. Since then, however, UBNT shares have lost nearly a quarter of their value. Even before the Citron allegations, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have been upping the bearish ante of late. UBNT's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 10.12 ranks just 3 percentage points from an annual high. In other words, options players have bought more than 10 UBNT puts for every UBNT call in the past two weeks.

AMAT Hits 17-Year High After RBC Upgrade

Moving in the opposite direction are shares of Applied Materials stock, last seen trading 2.8% higher at $48.46. The semiconductor stock is up after RBC upgraded AMAT to "outperform" from "sector perform," and raised its price target to $55 from $48, citing optimism for the company's wafer front-end business. The upbeat analyst attention -- not to mention some sector tailwinds -- sent AMAT shares to a 17-year high of $48.53 earlier, continuing the stock's longer-term uptrend. Of the 14 analysts following AMAT, 11 recommend buying the shares.

Baird Cuts Teladoc Stock Rating But 'Remains Very Bullish'

Among the worst stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today is Teladoc, last seen down 7% to trade at $33.45. The telehealth stock is reeling after Baird cut its rating to "neutral" from "outperform," citing the company's valuation sustainability. The brokerage firm, however, stated it "remains very bullish with respect to the company's strategy and long-term growth potential."

The majority of analysts following TDOC are bullish, in fact, with 11 "strong buy" ratings, two lukewarm "holds," and not a single "sell" recommendation. This isn't too surprising, though, as the stock has more than doubled since January, reaching a record high of $37.50 on Thursday.

Shorts are likely cheering today's decline, however, as short interest has grown 18.6% during the past two reporting periods, and now accounts for 28.6% of TDOC's total available float. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take more than four weeks to cover these shorted shares.  

Published on Sep 18, 2017 at 3:05 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stock Market News
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Indexes and ETFs
Gold prices will be in focus this week, with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest policy decision due on Wednesday afternoon and a press conference from Fed Chair Janet Yellen to follow. Though no rate hike is expected this time around, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is trading down 1.6% at $23.74 -- paring its year-to-date lead to 13.5% -- as U.S. stocks climb to new record highs. Nevertheless, GDX options traders are trading calls at an accelerated clip, and appear to be targeting a quick bounce over the next few weeks. 

At last check, 62,580 calls have changed hands -- 1.1 times what's typically seen at this point in the day -- compared to 28,257 puts. Most active is the October 26 call, with the weekly 9/22 and 9/29 24-strike calls also in high demand. It seems likely new positions are being purchased across the board, and if this is the case, the goal is for GDX to surge north of the strikes by the respective expiration dates.

This appetite for bullish bets is nothing new in GDX's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 107,625 calls have been bought to open in the past 10 days, compared to 53,765 puts. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 2.00 ranks in the 76th annual percentile, meaning this rate of call buying relative to put buying has been faster than usual.

Similar to today's action, the October 26 call saw the biggest rise in open interest over this time frame, with nearly 63,300 contracts added. The bulk of this activity occurred last Friday, when several large blocks were bought to open -- the biggest of which was a 19,105-contract lot that crossed for $0.22 apiece.

It's likely that some of this activity is a result of options traders betting on higher gold prices in the near term, a bullish positioning echoed in the latest Commitments of Traders (CoT) report. Specifically, data showed a ninth straight week of additions on the gold contract -- the longest accumulation by large speculators since Sept. 27.

However, it's also possible that some of the out-of-the-money call buying is indicative of GDX shorts hedging their bearish bets against any upside risk. Short interest on the exchange-traded fund (ETF) topped out at a record 70.49 million shares in the Aug. 15 reporting period, and fell just 2.1% in the most recent reporting period to 69 million shares sold short.

Regardless of the reason, it's a prime time to bet on GDX's near-term trajectory with options. The fund's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 25.3% ranks in the 11th annual percentile, meaning short-term options premiums are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.
Published on Sep 18, 2017 at 3:20 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

While earnings season has mostly wrapped up, package delivery giant FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) will report its fiscal first-quarter results tomorrow night. FedEx has a history of making upward moves following its earnings reports. Below, we will take a look at how FedEx stock typically reacts after earnings, and how options traders are preparing for the big event.

At last check, FDX stock is up 0.3% today to trade at $215.38. Shares of the package delivery name have had a solid run, tacking on 35% year-over-year. The stock shot to a record high of $219.99 on July 10, and the shares' subsequent pullback was contained by the 80-day moving average.

Historically speaking, FDX stock has averaged a one-day move in either direction of 4.4% in the session following the firm's last eight earnings releases, per Trade-Alert. The stock has reacted positively five times, including a 6.9% post-earnings pop at this time last year. Heading into FedEx earnings, the options market is pricing in a one-day swing of 5.5% for Wednesday's trading. 

In the options pits, there has been an increased preference toward long puts over calls lately. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), FDX sports a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.52, which ranks in the 90th percentile of its annual range. 

Digging deeper, it appears the weekly 9/22 210-strike put was especially popular over this time frame, and it looks like new positions were purchased last Friday. This indicates traders expect the security to breach the strike price by expiration at this Friday's close. Regardless of where FDX stock settles the week, though, the most the put buyers stand to lose is the initial premium paid.
Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 12:45 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are trading higher this afternoon, with the Dow setting a new intraday record out of the gate. Among the names in the spotlight today are biopharmaceutical company Abeona Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:ABEO), cruise line Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), and semiconductor stock Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD). Here's a quick look at what is moving shares of ABEO, CCL, and AMD.

RBC Thinks Abeona Therapeutics Stock Has Room to Run

Abeona Therapeutics stock is up 19% to trade at $16.66, after RBC Capital initiated coverage on the stock with an "outperform" rating and a price target of $23, citing the biotech sector's recent rally. The new target represents expected upside of 64% from ABEO stock's close of $14 yesterday. Further, RBC Capital named ABEO as one of its favorites among small-cap pharma stocks. Ranking as the second-best stock on the Nasdaq today, only behind Mirati Therapeutics stock, ABEO shares now boast a 242% year-to-date lead.

The biotech stock hit a three-year high of $17.25 earlier, and short squeeze could help ABEO shares climb even higher. Short interest represents nearly a third of the stock's total available float. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take more than a week to buy back the shorted shares.

Anything But Smooth Sailing for Carnival Stock

Analysts aren't as upbeat about Carnival stock, last seen down 4.9% at $65.37, after Credit Suisse downgraded the cruise stock to "neutral" from "outperform" and cut its price target to $70 from $78. The negative analyst attention is likely the result of fallout surrounding Hurricane Irma, which rocked the Caribbean and fueled CCL stock's worst weekly loss since February 2016 last week. The cruise stock is now poised to close below its 80-day moving average for just the third time this year.

Options traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have been upping the bearish ante of late. CCL's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 3.15 stands just 6 percentage points from an annual high.

Advanced Micro Devices Stock Gets Lift From NVDA

Trading 2.9% higher at $12.63 are shares of Advanced Micro Devices, likely thanks to a halo lift from NVIDIA stock, which is higher on upbeat analyst attention. AMD shares touched a 10-year high of $15.65 on July 26, but have since retreated to their 200-day moving average, which contained pullbacks in May. Nevertheless, Advanced Micro Devices shares are up more than 100% year-over-year.

Despite its long-term technical strength, options traders on the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX have purchased AMD puts over calls at a faster-than-usual clip of late. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.41 ranks in the 70th percentile of its annual range.

Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 1:22 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
Open interest levels on Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) have been trending higher throughout the year, alongside the FAANG stock's price. Currently, there are 143,461 calls and 143,209 puts open on GOOGL -- in the 97th annual percentile. What's more, now is an attractive time to buy short-term options on the Google parent, which will host a smartphone event in less than three weeks.

Open interest levels topped out 12-month highs of 157,696 calls and 157,903 puts on July 28, while call open interest hit a 52-week low of 68,811 contracts on April 3, and puts open interest tagged its annual low of 65,283 contracts on Jan. 23.

The October 940 and 960 calls make up the stock's top two open interest positions, where 4,611 and 5,072 contracts currently reside. Data from the major options exchanges confirms most of the lower-strike calls were bought to open, while there has been a mix of buy- and sell-to-open activity at the higher-strike calls.

Those initiating long calls expect Google stock to close north of the strikes by the close on Friday, Oct. 20, when back-month options expire. Those writing the October 960 calls, meanwhile, are betting on the strike to serve as a ceiling for the shares over the next five weeks.

With Alphabet earnings not due until the evening of Wednesday, Oct. 25, it's still an attractive time to purchase premium on short-term options. Specifically, the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 15.2% ranks in the 26th annual percentile, indicating lower-than-usual volatility expectations are being priced into near-term contracts.

On the charts, the share are up 18% year-to-date. More recently, though, the stock stalled since hitting a record high $1,008.61 on June 6, though its most recent pullback from the millennium mark found a familiar floor at the 120-day moving average. And while the shares are down 2% so far this month, they have historically been one of the best stocks to own in September.

Today, GOOGL stock is trading down 0.5% at $935.77, after a gender pay discrimination lawsuit was filed against Google yesterday. Traders are also reacting to a Bloomberg report that Alphabet could possibly take a $1 billion stake in ride-sharing service Lyft, and news Google has sent out invitations for a smartphone event on Wednesday, Oct. 4 -- though details of the new Pixel weren't released.
Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 2:38 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • 5-Minute Market Rundown
It was a banner week for U.S. stocks -- not to mention oil prices -- with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) currently pacing for a sixth straight win and a fourth straight record close. In fact, the blue-chip index is set for its best week of 2017, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is aiming for its best week since April. Stock markets this week seemingly shrugged off escalating tensions with North Korea, which fired off another missile toward Japan, and celebrated reports of less damage than expected from Hurricane Irma. Also making noise this week were Apple's new iPhone, the Equifax saga, and a handful of drug stocks.

Apple Dips After Big iPhone Reveal

The tech-rich Nasdaq Composite (COMP) enjoyed a big day on Monday -- continuing a recent trend of early-in-the-week rallies -- as traders waxed optimistic ahead of Apple's highly anticipated iPhone event on Tuesday. Apple options traders picked up out-of-the-money calls, and analysts bet on higher highs for AAPL shares.

However, the $999 iPhone X -- and its November release date -- initially failed to inspire Apple shareholders, as the stock ended lower for three straight sessions. The event also sent Energous stock spiraling lower, and sent Apple options volume into a frenzy. (Elsewhere, fellow FAANG member Alphabet could make noise with Google's smartphone event in a few weeks.)

Irma Damage Estimates Decline

Travelers stock started the week off strong, as insurance stocks attempted to stage a rebound amid the latest Irma-related damage estimates. However, one insurance name had a particularly bad week, after Mox Reports warned the shares could fall below $1 amid fraud accusations, and home-improvement retailers like Home Depot dipped. Further, Carnival stock continued to struggle after the hurricane rocked the cruise-friendly Caribbean, and several airlines cut their current-quarter outlooks.

Equifax the Next Enron?

Equifax remained in the headlines after last week's massive data breach. The credit reporting company was in the hot seat on Capitol Hill, with Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii taking to Twitter to ask about possible insider trading. While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said it is "one of the most egregious examples of corporate malfeasance since Enron," Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office requesting a probe into the company. Equifax is already being investigated by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). EFX stock has dropped more than 25% in the past week, dragging down the shares of other credit agencies.

Drug Stocks Continue to Make Noise

It was another busy week for biotechs. Aldeyra Therapeutics and Aethlon Medical were among the small-cap healthcare stocks with huge gains, while Abeona Therapeutics was named one of RBC Capital's small-cap favorites. Among the big-cap pharmaceutical stocks making noise was Dow component Pfizer, which rallied to new highs. Option bulls came out for bluebird bio stock and this record-setting healthcare ETF, while this drug stock sent up a "buy" signal. However, it wasn't all sunshine and rainbows. Mallinckrodt stock was slapped with a major price-target cut, and Intercept Pharmaceuticals hit a new low after ugly drug data.

September Fed Meeting on Tap

The Fed will take center stage next week, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hosting its September meeting. Following the policy statement Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak. While the central bank isn't expected to raise interest rates at next week's meeting, it seems the odds of a December rate hike are now above 50% following the latest inflation data -- a recent boon for bank stocks.
Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 2:42 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Investor Sentiment
Shares of Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) gapped higher in late July, on rumors Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management was buying a stake in the payrolls specialist. ADP stock went on to hit a record high of $121.77 on July 31. And while the security has since retreated alongside a significant drop in short interest, ADP options traders have been raising the bearish stakes.

Since topping out at their all-time peak, ADP shares are down 12%. The security gapped lower in mid-August after Ackman reiterated that Pershing's proposed shake-up of the company would likely involve the removal of CEO Carlos Rodriguez, though ADP issued a statement saying it "strongly disagree[s] with many of the assertions made by Mr. Ackman." While ADP found support in the $102 region, it has yet to fill its Aug. 17 bear gap, last seen trading at $106.87.

What's interesting is that the stock's retreat from record highs came amid a steady stream of short covering. Specifically, 10.52 million ADP shares are currently sold short -- a 27.7% drop from the 14.56 million shares in the Aug. 1 reporting period, an eight-year peak. In the latest reporting period alone, short interest fell 22%, or  $376.31 million in dollar-value changes, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal -- the most of any stock during this time frame. The stock's inability to capitalize on this influx of buying power could point to underlying weakness.

Options traders, on the other hand, have preferred long puts over calls in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculative players have bought to open 35,566 puts in the past 50 sessions, compared to 20,035 calls. 

Drilling down, peak open interest of 13,244 contracts is found at the November 100 put, and data from the major options exchanges confirms buy-to-open activity here. In other words, options traders are betting on ADP breaching the round $100 mark by expiration at the close on Friday, Nov. 17 -- a time frame that includes Automatic Data Processing's Oct. 31 quarterly earnings report and Nov. 7 annual shareholders meeting. With ADP stock still up 22% year-over-year, this activity could be a result of investors hedging against any additional downside risk.
Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 2:55 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis

Hurricane Irma has come and gone, leaving a trail of destruction in its wake. While insurance and restaurant stocks were on Wall Street's radar last week, homebuilding stocks are now focus as the cleanup effort gets underway. While options bulls have blasted home improvement giant Home Depot of late, AV Homes Inc (NASDAQ:AVHI) is an under-the-radar Florida homebuilder that could be be putting the squeeze on short sellers.

On Tuesday, AV Homes stock posted its largest one-day percentage gain since July 24, surging 4.8%. The stock is now up almost 13% from its Aug. 23 annual low of $14.65, trading above its 320-day moving average -- a trendline that served as resistance in early August, but could now be switching to a more supportive role. Below here is the $15.80 region, home to AVHI's year-to-date breakeven mark.

AVHI's rebound could get an assist, should some of the weaker bearish hands start to cover. Although short interest decreased 8% during the last reporting period, the 1.3 million shares still sold short represent nearly 12% of the AVHI's total available float. Furthermore, at AVHI's average daily trading volume, it would take over 11 days for shorts to fully cover their positions. This represents a major source of buying power that could provide tailwinds for the stock.

Analyst sentiment could also help nudge AVHI higher, as just two brokerages cover the stock  -- and both rate it a tepid "hold." This indicates that there is room for upgrades and/or positive initiations, should the stock extend its Irma-related bounce.

Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 3:05 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis
With the major stock market indexes hitting record highs, demand for "safe havens" like gold have dipped this week. However, one gold stock is flashing a "buy" signal that hasn't been wrong the last four times: Barrick Gold Corp (USA) (NYSE:ABX). Below, we'll discuss why ABX stock looks like a bargain right now.

ABX stock has been in an upward channel since early July. The stock has pulled back since its most recent high in the $18.35 area, and is now within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average, after a lengthy time above this trendline. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the last four times ABX stock retreated to this trendline, the shares were higher one month out 100% of the time, averaging a healthy gain of 9.37%!

Barrick Gold stock was last seen 0.8% higher on the day, at $17.27. Another 9.37% rally from current levels would put ABX around $18.88 -- a level that provided a foothold for ABX before its April bear gap.

barrick gold stock chart


Although Barrick Gold shares have outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) over the past three months, there's still plenty of room aboard the bullish bandwagon. In fact, just four of 14 analysts consider the gold stock worthy of a "buy" or better rating. A round of upgrades could lure more buyers to the table, sending ABX shares even higher.
Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 9:30 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a negative start, as traders weigh North Korea's latest missile strike against a fresh round of economic data. Among specific stocks in focus today are software firm Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL), cancer treatment specialist Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRTX), and embattled credit reporting agency Equifax Inc. (NSYE:EFX). Here's a closer look at what's moving shares of ORCL, MRTX, and EFX.

Oracle Stock Retreats After Earnings

Oracle shares are down 4.9% in electronic trading, after the tech firm forecast current-quarter adjusted profit below the consensus estimate and said its cloud growth will likely slow. Nevertheless, a fiscal first-quarter earnings beat sparked price-target hikes from no fewer than four brokerage firms, including Jefferies to $61 from $60.

This new ORCL price target represents expected upside of 15.6% to last night's close at $52.79, and sits in record-high territory. And despite today's pre-market downside, Oracle stock has been on a tear in 2017, up 37.3% -- and fresh off yesterday's record high of $53.14.

As such, the shares may be due for a short-term pullback. Oracle's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed Thursday at 78 -- indicating the stock is overbought.

MRTX Stock is Soaring Ahead Sitravatinib Data Presentation

After closing last night at $4.75, Mirati Therapeutics stock is up 99% ahead of the bell, set to open the session at levels not seen since June 2016. Yesterday, the biotech gave a well-received update on its non-small cell lung cancer drug, sitravatinib, and Mirati Therapeutics is due to give preliminary data on two early stage trials of the treatment today at the IASLC 2017 Chicago Multidisciplinary Symposium in Thoracic Oncology.

Adding to the bullish buzz is Leerink's upwardly revised price target for MRTX to $9 from $7, though still below the average 12-month price target of $9.60. Today's projected price move could have shorts rushing to cover. More than 1.1 million MRTX shares are sold short, representing 9.4 times the stock's average daily pace of trading. 

Schumer, Warren Weigh in on Equifax Data Breach

Equifax stock hit two-year low of $89.59 yesterday before closing at $96.66, bringing its week-to-date decline to 21.6%. Today, the shares are down 1.7% ahead of the bell, as more senators weigh in on the company's massive data breach.

While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said it is "one of the most egregious examples of corporate malfeasance since Enron," Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts sent a letter to the Government Accountability Office requesting a probe into the company. Equifax is already being investigated by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

What's more, SunTrust Robinson slashed its price target on EFX stock to $110 from $155. Considering the average 12-month price target of $131.46 stands at a 39% premium to last night's close and 65% of analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating on the shares, more bearish brokerage notes could be on the horizon.

Published on Sep 15, 2017 at 10:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Analysts are weighing in on airline stocks American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL)United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL), and Spirit Airlines Incorporated (NASDAQ:SAVE). J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded all three airline stocks over concerns about domestic airline pricing and fuel prices. Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on shares of AAL, UAL, and SAVE.

Downgrade Grounds American Airlines Stock

American Airlines stock is down 1.4% to trade at $45.55, after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the airline name to "neutral" from "overweight," while also cutting its price target to $53 from $61. Earlier this week, the company lowered its current-quarter revenue per available seat mile (RASM) outlook. Since touching a two-year high of $54.48 in mid-July, AAL stock has pulled back 16%, but seems to have found support atop its 320-day moving average.

In the options pits, traders have bought to open puts over calls by a wider-than-usual margin. AAL sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.58 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks in the 79th percentile of its annual range. 

A Rough Quarter for United Continental

United Continental stock is down 2% to trade at $60.01, after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded it to "neutral" from "overweight." UAL stock also received a price-target cut to $68 from $84. The new price target represents a 16% discount to the stock's average 12-month price target of $81.38. UAL stock has shed 27% since touching record high of $83.04 on June 2.

Despite United's fundamental and technical troubles lately, analyst sentiment remains bullishly skewed. Of the 15 brokerages covering UAL shares, eight rate them a "buy" or "strong buy," with not a single "sell" in sight. This means that there is still plenty of room aboard the bearish bandwagon. Further downgrades could push the stock even lower.

Spirit Airlines Not Spared From Downgrade Spree

Spirit Airlines stock is down 2.7% to trade at $33.89, after J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "overweight," while also trimming its price target to $37 from $45. Last night, Spirit Airlines said it was too soon to assess the financial impact of Hurricane Irma on 2017 results, but "we do expect it to be significant." SAVE stock has had a tough year, shedding 43% since peaking above $60 in May, and touching a four-year low of $30.32 on Sept. 6. 

Shorts are betting on even steeper declines for SAVE stock. Short interest increased by a whopping 69% during the last two reporting periods, but accounts for only 7% of SAVE's total available float. This indicates that there is still plenty of room for short sellers to hop aboard the stock. 

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