I hope everyone had a fun week last week. As I noted recently, we were in a somewhat extended period since the last "Official" CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Pop. But, since it was a pre-holiday week amidst the worst time of the year for volatility, I took a few days off. Hey, what are the chances the Vol Pop happens right before July 4th?

Apparently, about 100%. We've had Greek news and deadlines and threats and counter-threats and threats to the counter-threats for five years now. But this turned into The Big One.

There's no certainties to any of the "predictions" we all make. At least, there shouldn't be. In the real world, we deal more in probabilities. You will make money if you find situations where there's a disparity between the expected probability of an event and the probability the market assigns to that event. For the lion's share of the last six years, the market has consistently overpriced the odds of an imminent volatility pop. By and large, it pays to fade that overpricing. 

But that doesn't mean those Vol Pops don't happen. They always do, and clearly when I least expect them. I did expect one sometime in the next couple of months; I didn't expect one last week. 

Anyway, at least it gives us a good excuse to open up the VIX Pop Table! Just to refresh, I use "20% above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA)" on a closing basis as the official definition of an Overbought VIX. And below is a rundown of Overbought VIXes since 2009.

I include the one-month and three-month returns of a long initiated at the close of the first session VIX closed 20% above its SMA, as well as returns of a long that's closed after the first session where VIX closed below its 10-day SMA. Also, I note the duration of that trade (in trading days) as well as the duration from the first Overbought VIX until the nearest SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) bottom. If it's zero, the first day of the Overbought VIX was the bottom. I also include the mean and median one-month and three-month returns of trades initiated on any random day since 2009.

 

 

As you can see, fading Overbought VIX has been a generally good idea over the last six years -- at least in the near term. Buying and holding until VIX closes back below the 10-day has had a median return of 0.84% with an average holding period of slightly over a week. Further, the trade "won" 12 of the last 15 times. 

Going a little further out, holding for a month has had a median return of 4.08% vs. 1.61% on randomly timed one-month holds. It's also on a nine-"game" win streak, albeit with the tiniest of wins last July. 

By three months, the Overbought VIX has no real impact on returns. I can take a rose-colored lens to that, though, and point out that anyone who tells you the VIX pop "predicts" future doom and gloom in the longer term needs to show some real data to back those assertions up. 

Oh, and a reminder: I don't want to double-count data, so the blanks on the table are to avoid overlaps. 

It's important to note that all of this looks back on an era that we know in hindsight was a bull market coupled with a low VIX "regime." We don't know that's the case going forward, of course. One of these VIX pops will "stick." Maybe it's this current one, though as always, it's way tougher to call a change in trend than it is to simply stay on the same path. 

Disclaimer: Mr. Warner's opinions expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Analysts are weighing in today on offshore drilling concern Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), coffee brewer Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ:GMCR), and review site Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on RIG, GMCR, and YELP.

• RIG is no stranger to bearish analyst attention, as every brokerage firm covering the stock says it's a "hold" or worse. Susquehanna is piling on the pessimistic outlook, lowering its price target to $13 from $14 while underscoring a "negative" rating. The shares have had a miserable time on the charts, losing 65% in the past 12 months, finishing last week at $15.59. Analysts certainly aren't the only ones wary of Transocean LTD. Almost 27% of the equity's float is sold short, which would take over 11 sessions to buy back, at normal daily volumes.


• GMCR has struggled in 2015, and SunTrust Robinson is expecting more downside. The brokerage firm lowered its price target to $70 from $95, which would mark annual-low territory for the stock, and represents a discount to Thursday's close at $74.33. Elsewhere, option activity has turned bullish, with Keurig Green Mountain Inc's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 1.57 sitting higher than three-fourths of readings from the past year. These traders may be on to something, too. GMCR's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in oversold territory at 21.


• YELP is set to fall 1% out of the gate, hurt by price-target cuts at Piper Jaffray and B. Riley. The former moved its price target down to $40, with the latter setting its mark at $30.50 -- territory the stock hasn't explored since June 2013. After being halted, Yelp Inc touched a two-year low of $36.10 on Thursday before closing at $38.18, and more losses could be forthcoming. Half of the analysts covering YELP say it's a "buy" or better still. Additional bearish brokerage notes could act as headwinds for the struggling stock. 

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Analysts weighed in on medical device specialist Second Sight Medical Products Inc (NASDAQ:EYES), drugmaker Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX), and motorcycle maven Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE:HOG). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on EYES, VRTX, and HOG.

• Rodman & Renshaw initiated coverage on EYES with a "buy" rating and a $21 price target -- representing expected upside of 47% to current levels. The stock was last seen 1.7% higher at $14.29. Second Sight Medical Products Inc had already put in a strong performance on the charts in 2015, up nearly 37% coming into today. Short sellers, however, have had their doubts. Short interest surged 10.1% in the latest reporting period, and now accounts for a lofty 16.9% of EYES' available float.


• Analysts were quick to weigh in on VRTX, after the company's cystic fibrosis drug, Orkambi, received a regulatory win on Thursday. Chiming in on the stock was Baird, which boosted its price target to $160, as well as Leerink and William Blair, which raised their target prices to $158 -- with the latter expecting the treatment to pull in peak annual global sales of roughly $5.9 billion. Morgan Stanley, JMP Securities, and BTIG, however, all lowered their price targets. Heading into today, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was up 10.5% on the year. More recently, the shares have been bouncing between $123 and $135 since late April, and were last seen 2.8% lower at $127.63. Short-term speculators have shown a preference for puts over calls, per VRTX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.27, which rests in the 78th annual percentile.


• Unlike the broader equities market, HOG is higher this morning, edging up 0.04% to $56.05, after a bullish write-up in Barron's over the weekend. "A return to peak motorcycle purchases could put earnings per share well over $6. Don’t count on that soon, but Wall Street predicts Harley will grind its way to over $5 in earnings by 2017. The lowest among nine estimates stands at $4.69. Using that, a 30% rise for shares over the next two years would close the stock’s discount to the S&P 500 by only about half." Generally speaking, the brokerage bunch is mixed toward a stock that's shed 15% year-to-date, and hit an annual low of $53.04 in mid-May. Eight analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating, while eight maintain a lukewarm "hold" recommendation. Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target of $65.15 stands at a 16.2% premium to current levels. 

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U.S. stocks are sharply lower this morning, after Greek citizens rejected bailout terms yesterday. Among specific equities in focus are healthcare company Humana Inc (NYSE: HUM), discount retailer Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR), and weight management services provider Weight Watchers International, Inc. (NYSE: WTW).

• On Friday, health insurer Aetna Inc (NYSE: AET) announced that it would buy HUM for $37 billion in cash and stock – the largest ever deal in the insurance industry . The deal is expected to face aggressive antitrust scrutiny. Mergers and acquisitions could become the rage in the insurer sector, thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling on Obamacare. Technically, Humana Inc has had a good year, and is up 2.2% at $191.55.

• Late Thursday, DLTR was given the okay by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to purchase Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (NYSE: FDO). This announcement puts to bed a year-long saga which saw FDO reject an earlier offer from Dollar General Corp. (NYSE: DG). Dollar Tree, Inc. -- which expects the deal to close today -- is currently up 0.4% at $80.10.   

• According to The New York Post, WTW has drawn the attention of "at least one suitor," despite dropping 80% of its value in 2015. The article notes that the suitor is an "activist hedge fund." Against this backdrop, Weight Watchers International, Inc. has popped 20.8% to sit at $4.94. Short sellers could be getting spooked, as 43.27% of its float is sold short.
  
  

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The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the July 2015 edition of The Option Advisor, published on June 25. For more information or to subscribe to The Option Advisor, click here.

"Bubble-spotting" has become a favorite pastime on Wall Street, with fund managers, analysts, journalists, and even the Federal Reserve racing to point out the next unsustainable asset surge. In fact, it was just last summer that the Fed made headlines by citing "substantially stretched" valuations for social media and biotech stocks in its biannual report.

The Fed -- and namely, Chair Janet Yellen -- took plenty of heat for weighing in on equity valuations, with many armchair critics calling for the central bank to stay in its lane, and quite a few market-watchers on Finance Twitter making snarky references to the latest "research note" from "Yellen Macroprudential," or citing the latest returns for the "Double Inverse Yellen Fund."

However, less than a year later, it seems the Fed's warning of a potential biotech bubble has become the accepted consensus opinion. A Google News search for "biotech bubble 2015" yields just shy of 48,000 results -- and the results aren't limited to financial news outlets, with mainstream publications such as TIME, The Globe and Mail, and even Gawker jumping on the trend.

Just this week, in fact, The Wall Street Journal pointed to the launch of two new, triple-leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the sector as "fuel for the biotech-stock frenzy," and warned that investors may get "burned." (We will not argue with the thesis that one should proceed with extreme caution when considering leveraged ETF products, though this particular development may be more indicative of a looming bubble in the "specialized ETF" space, rather than in biotech itself.)

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that "demand for options tied to declines in an exchange-traded fund tracking [biotech] companies rose to the highest level in three years relative to bullish ones." The article also cites an unusually high skew for biotech options -- meaning puts are markedly more expensive to buy than calls -- along with a relatively high level of short interest levied against the sector. One analyst is quoted as saying that biotech has "the most bubble-like characteristics" of any area of the market.

All of which begs the question: If everyone agrees there's a "bubble" in danger of popping, aren't we missing one of the key contrarian ingredients (euphoria) necessary for the formation of a top? But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let's defer to the most crucial indicator -- the price action.

From 2004 to 2006, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) traded sideways between $70 and $85. It wasn't until 2011 that IBB finally broke out above decisively above this sideways channel. Since then, multiples of the $85 level have been significant for the ETF. Specifically, $170 and $255 have acted as speed bumps in recent years, while the $340 level gave IBB only a moment's pause before emerging as support, with this price point defining the lower boundary of a recent range. By this logic, $425 would be the next likely resistance area, representing upside of about 13% from IBB's closing price of $375.84 on June 25.

Additionally, IBB recently took out the $360 area, which coincides with a 20% year-to-date return, and which had acted as resistance since mid-March. Closer at hand, another key level worth noting is $375, as this area will represent a 50% year-over-year gain until early August (as the IBB essentially flat-lined from this time until early August last year). Sometimes, these 50% year-over-year levels will act as speed bumps, though the fund has spent the past week or so solidifying a foothold above this area.

And our internal sentiment data confirms Bloomberg's reporting by revealing a hefty dose of skepticism levied against this outperforming sector. We track 69 stocks under the "Biomedics/Genetics" umbrella, and 78% of those are currently trading above their 80-day moving averages, with an average 52-week return of 52.8%. And over this same 52-week time frame, short interest on these stocks has jumped by 11.8%. The average short interest-to-float ratio of the group is a hefty 17.2%, which translates to a short interest ratio of 10.1 days to cover -- a rather healthy supply of sideline cash.

Likewise, Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) for IBB arrives at 2.53, with puts more than doubling calls among options set to expire within three months. This SOIR outranks 83% of other such readings from the last year, indicating a stronger-than-usual skew toward puts over calls among speculative players.

Against this backdrop, a hesitation or mild pullback by IBB to its 80-day moving average would mark a potential buying opportunity, according to our quantified data. Since 2009, IBB has met up with this trendline on 20 occasions. Looking out 63 days after these signals -- roughly three months' worth of trading -- IBB has been positive 84% of the time, sporting an average gain of 10.3%, and a median return of 9.3%. (The most recent signal, in late April, has not yet closed, but early returns look good almost two months in.) As of this writing, IBB's 80-day moving average was docked at $356.36 -- which, it should be noted, means a retreat to this level would put some of the aforementioned levels of possible resistance back into play.

While the onslaught of doomsday headlines, high levels of short interest, and recently bearish option activity seem to suggest that the biotech rally has not yet reached the euphoric heights traditionally associated with bubbles, we would be remiss not to acknowledge the possibility of volatile price action for IBB. Biotech companies are notorious for having somewhat lopsided or speculative product pipelines, which means unfavorable FDA rulings or the emergence of a competitive drug can spark drastic sell-offs. But that's why call options are an ideal vehicle for this kind of trade -- they require less upfront capital commitment than buying shares outright, and the potential loss is clearly defined and capped by the premium paid.

All of that said, eager bubble-spotters may wish to turn their gaze to China. A recent New Yorker piece noted that, while the fundamentals of the Chinese economy have been slowing, the stock market has been pushed higher by "a flood of new money, much of it from inexperienced investors." Even more troubling, a rally in Shanghai was sparked earlier this week by bullish headlines from state-run media outlets. With investors eagerly biting on upbeat propaganda -- even as the Deutsche X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) breaks down below short-term support -- it looks as though the next bubble to burst may be in Beijing.

The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are blue-chip energy issues Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM).

CVX has put in a dismal showing on the charts, and since topping out at a record high of $135.10 last July, the shares have surrendered nearly 30%. This technical slump is in full swing today, thanks to a broader overseas-related sell-off in crude oil. In fact, the security tagged a fresh three-year low of $94.48 earlier -- following a price-target cut to $104 from $114 at J.P. Morgan Securities -- but was last seen down 0.8% at $95.03.

Against this backdrop, put players have been piling into CVX's options pits in recent months. The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 1.54 -- in the 95th percentile of its annual range. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls with more rapidity just 5% of the time within the past year.

In the weekly 7/10 series -- which expires at this Friday's close -- put traders have been particularly fond of the 93.50 strike, where 7,830 contracts are currently in residence. For those buying to open the puts, the goal is for Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) to breach the $93.50 mark for the first time since November 2011.

J.P. Morgan Securities also lowered its price target on XOM to $92 from $93, although this still represents expected upside of 11.1% to XOM's current perch at $82.85. The equity has also been in a long-term slump, down roughly 21% from its record high of $104.76, tagged July 29. Today, the shares are off 0.4%, after the company announced it will no longer be exploring for oil in Madagascar, due to disappointing findings.

Like CVX, XOM has seen accelerated put activity in its options pits. During the course of the past 10 sessions, speculators at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX have bought to open 3.29 puts for each call. What's more, this ratio ranks higher than 94% of all similar readings taken in the past year.

Drilling down on the weekly 7/10 series, peak put open interest of nearly 1,700 contracts can be found at the 83 strike. For those who initiated long puts, the expectation is for Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) to extend its trek south of $83 through week's end.

Given the growing uncertainty surrounding Greece's financial future, it's no surprise to see the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEARCA:GREK) trading off again. Just today, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) has given back 7.6% to trade at $10.03, putting it 25% lower in 2015. And, as the situation in Greece intensifies, so does activity in the security's option pits.

On a closer look, both calls and puts are accelerated in GREK's options pits today. In fact, today's put and call volumes land in the 99th and 100th percentiles of their annual range, respectively.

The option that's seen the most action today is the September 14 call. However, it appears most of this activity may be from a trader selling to close the contracts. Elsewhere, GREK's July 10 put has seen notable activity, although it's unclear as to whether these options are being bought or sold.

One thing that's for sure is that speculative traders are paying relatively inflated prices for GREK's options. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 131% is only 4 percentage points from an annual high. Also, the security's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (IV) has jumped 2% to 119.7%, after earlier topping out at a 52-week peak.

Even with the security's dreadful performance on the charts, traders have been buying to open calls over puts at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). GREK's 20-day call/put volume ratio across these exchanges stands at 2.08. This means over two calls have been bought to open for every put ​during the past two weeks.

As one would expect, pessimism has been growing outside the option pits, as well. Short interest on Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (NYSEARCA:GREK) exploded nearly 186% during the most recent reporting period.

Put buyers have been active Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GILD) options pits in recent months. In fact, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GILD's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.61 ranks in the 99th annual percentile. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster clip just 1% of the time within the past year.

Drilling down on the front-month series, these traders have been particularly enamored with the July 115 strike, which houses peak put open interest of 14,921 contracts. According to the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, nearly 7,100 puts have been bought to open here since early May, meaning speculators are expecting GILD to be sitting south of $115 at the close on Friday, July 17 -- when the options expire.

​Regardless of where the stock settles at front-month expiration, put buyers can rest easy knowing the most they stand to lose is the initial premium paid. What's more, those currently purchasing GILD's front-month options are able to do so at relatively tame prices, considering the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 25% sits lower than 79% of all similar readings taken in the past year.

Outside of the options pits, the outlook is more upbeat. Short interest, for example, declined more than 40% in the two latest reporting periods, and these bearish bets currently account for just 2.5% of GILD's available float. Elsewhere, 14 out of 16 analysts covering the shares maintain a "buy" or better rating.

Technically speaking, this optimism is warranted. Year-to-date, GILD has added an impressive 22.5%. More recently, the equity has been consolidating near its 40-day moving average since topping out at a June 24 record high of $123.37. Against this backdrop, it's possible a portion of the recent put activity -- specifically, at out-of-the-money strikes -- is a result of shareholders protecting their paper profits.

This could spell additional gains for the shares in the near term. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, in the 14 other times this signal has occurred during the past three years, Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) has gone on to average a 21-day gain of 6.7%, and is positive 79% of the time.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX) shares shot higher today -- but are currently halted at $130.90 -- on news that the company's cystic fibrosis therapy, Orkambi, received Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval. With its intraday lead approaching 4%, the stock has advanced 32.5% year-over-year -- though it's struggled in recent months in the $130-$133 neighborhood. Amid this recent churn, option traders have gravitated toward long puts.

Diving right in, during the last 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 1.36 puts for every call. This ratio ranks in the 82nd percentile of its annual range, suggesting traders have bought to open puts over calls at a faster-than-usual pace lately.

Further reflecting this bias toward puts is VRTX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.31. Not only does this SOIR indicate short-term put open interest outweighs call open interest, but it also rests above 79% of comparable readings from the previous 12 months.

Analysts are tilted in a skeptical direction, as well. Over half of the brokerages covering Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (NASDAQ:VRTX) have doled out tepid "hold" ratings. What's more, the stock's average 12-month price target of $140.10 is just 7% above the current perch -- though it does represent uncharted territory for VRTX.

After being halted earlier, Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP) resumed trading around 1 p.m. ET, and promptly plunged to a nearly two-year low of $36.10. The equity was last seen off 10.6% at $37.92 -- and on the short-sale restricted list. Prompting this afternoon's sharp drop are reports the company is shelving plans to put itself up on the auction block. Option traders, meanwhile, are convinced additional losses are on the horizon, with puts crossing the tape at four times the average intraday pace.

Almost one-third of the day's put activity has centered on the August 25 strike, where it appears new positions are being purchased. By buying the puts to open, the expectation is for YELP to tumble south of $25 -- territory not charted since April 2013 -- by the close on Friday, August 21, when the back-month series expires.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals call buyers have been active in YELP's options pits in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 2.48 ranks in the 99th annual percentile. In simpler terms, calls have been bought to open over puts with more rapidity just 1% of the time in the past year.

Echoing this is YELP's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.45. Not only does this show that call open interest more than doubles put open interest among options expiring in three months or less, but it rests lower than 89% of all similar readings taken over the last 12 months. Simply stated, speculative traders are more call-skewed than usual.

What's surprising is that this amount of optimism is levied toward a stock that's had a terrible time on the charts this year. Heading into today's trading, YELP had already lost more than one-fifth of its value in 2015. Plus, the equity has found a stern layer of resistance from the round-number $40 mark in recent months. Yelp Inc (NYSE:YELP) could face even more headwinds should option traders continue to switch sides -- or analysts continue to re-evaluate their ratings.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average sitting in the red at last check, several stocks have hit unfamiliar territory today -- both good and bad. Let's take a look at some names that have made notable moves today, including video game expert Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ:EA), 3-D printing concern 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), and alternative energy firm Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG).

• Even though EA was last seen 0.9% lower at $67.41 amid broad-market headwinds, the shares were able to touch another 10-year high of $68.48 earlier. The stock has been a technical outperformer, beating the S&P 500 Index (SPX) by over 17 percentage points in the last three months. Regardless, short interest remains elevated. The 18.5 million Electronic Arts Inc. shares sold short equal almost 11 days' worth of trading, at the stock's typical volumes. If EA can keep reaching new heights, there's potential for an exodus of shorts to drive the shares even higher.


• Although things haven't been great for DDD on the charts lately -- down over 42% in 2015 after earlier touching a three-year low of $18.27 -- the stock was last seen 2.1% higher at $19.01. Like EA, 3D Systems Corporation is heavily shorted; more than one-third of the equity's float is sold short, and would take over four weeks to buy back, judging by average trading levels. These bears might want to be on watch, though. DDD's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the shares are well into oversold territory, with a reading of 27.


• PLUG is testing new lows, as well. The stock hit an annual low of $2.22 earlier, and was last seen 0.6% lower at $2.34. Over the past 12 months, the security has lost close to half of its value, but option traders still haven't been afraid to buy to open calls. Plug Power Inc's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio comes in at 10.46, putting it only 2 percentage points from an annual high. This means calls have been picked up over puts at a faster-than-usual rate of late.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is 1.3% higher this afternoon at $30.58, amid a raft of changes to the company's senior leadership. Likely the most notable move is the departure of President Renee James, who will leave to pursue "an external CEO role."

Option bears can't be happy about the bounce. During the last two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open 1.37 puts for every call -- a ratio that checks in higher than 83% of readings taken in the last year. Echoing this, INTC's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.35 ranks in the put-skewed 94th annual percentile.

Digging deeper, a lofty accumulation of front-month put open interest resides at the underfoot July 30 strike, where more than 35,300 contracts are present. According to data from the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, nearly 10,000 long positions have been opened here since early April. INTC could benefit from options-related support at this round-number strike, as the hedges related to these bets unwind ahead of expiration.

Short sellers may be forced to hit the exits, as well, should Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) extend its momentum. More than 128 million shares are currently sold short, representing about four days' worth of pent-up buying activity, at typical volumes.