Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Sep 16, 2019 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is in focus this morning, after labor union United Auto Works (UAW) went on strike overnight, since contract talks over the weekend stalled. There's an estimated 48,000 hourly workers reportedly headed for the picket lines this morning, the first nationwide strike at GM in 12 years.

The UAW is calling for better guarantees of higher pay and fighting to protect workers from plant closures in Ohio and Michigan. In a statement, GM said the company “presented a strong offer that improves wages, benefits and grows U.S. jobs in substantive ways." President Donald Trump took to Twitter last night to weigh in, urging both sides to "get together and make a deal."

Today, General Motors stock is down 3.1% to trade at $37.62 and headed for its fourth straight loss. GM spent last week consolidating above its 50-day moving average, but that trendline is set to be breached on a closing basis today. The automaker is still up roughly 11% in 2019. 

Meanwhile, options traders at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have put GM's 10-day put/call volume ratio at 0.8, and it ranks in the 70th annual percentile. So while long calls still outnumbered puts on an absolute basis, the high percentile indicates puts have been bought to open relative to calls at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Echoing this is the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.88, which ranks in the elevated 86th percentile -- showing a very unusual put-skew among short-term speculators. Whatever the motive, now might be the time to speculate on GM's next move with options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24% is in the 21st percentile of its annual range. This means near-term options are currently pricing in relatively low volatility expectations. 

Published on Sep 16, 2019 at 10:13 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Wells Fargo downgraded Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE:DKS) to "market perform" from "outperform," saying it's "moving to the sidelines," with the retail stock up 25% year-to-date through Friday's close at $39 -- in line with the brokerage firm's DKS price target. Wells Fargo also expressed concern over the sporting goods retailer's "ability to stabilize margins," even with a "long-term opportunity to consolidate market share in the industry."

Against this backdrop, DKS stock is down 2.1% this morning to trade at $38.17. The security is coming off a four-week winning streak, and has surged more than 22% since its mid-August lows near $31.25. Plus, today's drop is being contained near a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of Dick's Sporting Goods' rally off its late-December low at $29.69 to its early March peak at $40.82.

Most analysts are already skeptical of DKS, and prior to today, 11 of 14 maintained a lukewarm "hold" recommendation. Additionally, the average 12-month price target of $37.13 is a discount to current trading levels.

This pessimism is seen elsewhere on Wall Street, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), Dick's Sporting Goods stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.07 registers in the 78th annual percentile, meaning puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-expected clip.

Meanwhile, short interest on DKS jumped almost 10% in the two most recent reporting periods to 22.25 million shares, accounting for 35.2% of the stock's available float, or 9.3 times the average daily pace of trading. Should the retail stock resume its longer-term uptrend, a capitulation from some of the weaker bearish hands could create tailwinds.

Published on Sep 16, 2019 at 11:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER) and LYFT Inc (NASDAQ:LYFT) are both trading higher today following bullish analyst attention. HSBC released a note upgrading each stock to "buy," saying sentiment has turned bearish on UBER and LYFT shares, especially due to last quarter's poorly received numbers. The brokerage firm also said it was possible for the companies to reach profitability if they properly cut costs.

UBER was last seen up 5.8% at $34.59, pushing for its best close since mid-August. HSBC set a $44 price target on the stock, which on Friday found support at the 20-day moving average. Most other analysts are also bullish on the ride-hailing platform, with 21 of 26 handing out "buy" or "strong buy" recommendations.

Call options are already popular this morning, trading at two times the pace expected. Most popular is the September 35 call, while new positions are opening at the September 36 call. It's possible traders are buying the positions to try and profit on more upside in the security by Friday's close, when the contracts expire.

LYFT, meanwhile, is 5.7% higher at $48.73, testing its 20-day moving average. The brokerage firm set a $62 price target on the equity, which is actually a decent bit below the average analyst price target of $73.06. LYFT's call options are also trading at a hot rate right now, with new positions opening at the weekly 9/27 48.50-strike call.

Published on Sep 16, 2019 at 1:24 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

Stocks are lower today, and the Dow is on pace to snap its eight-day win streak as drone strikes in Saudi Arabia have oil prices skyrocketing, sparking even more geopolitical anxieties. Three stocks in particular moving on the news are cruise concern Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), as well as oil majors (and Dow stocks) Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX). Below, we'll take a look at what's moving the shares of CCL, XOM, and CVX. 

Carnival Stock Sinks on Sector Sell-Off

The shares of Carnival have fallen victim to today's sell-off, as investors fret over higher fuel costs for cruise (and airline) companies. The stock is now off 2.1% at $49.46, just one session after touching a two-month high of $50.87 on Friday. Now, CCL is testing support near its year-to-date breakeven, which roughly coincides with its 100-day moving average. 

Options bears are piling on today, with 5,530 puts across the tape so far -- five times the intraday average. Most active is the deep out-of-the-money weekly 11/1 42.50-strike put, where a block of 2,300 contracts traded earlier for $0.34 per contract. This strike has zero contracts in open interest at the moment, suggesting that new positions are being opened here today. 

Exxon Mobil Stock Extends Rally

The oil sector, on the other hand, is enjoying a boost amid the drone strike news, lifting Dow member Exxon 1.5% higher to trade at $73.74. As a result, XOM stock is on pace for its first close atop its 80-day moving average since May 1. Familiar pressure at its 200-day moving average, however, lingers just overhead. 

There was a decent amount of pessimism priced into the oil major stock heading into today, which is likely contributing to the XOM rally. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 84th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a healthier appetite for bearish bets over bullish on Exxon in recent weeks. 

Chevron Stock Leads Dow at Midday

Fellow blue chip Chevron is at the top of the Dow at midday, also getting a lift on surging oil prices. In fact, the stock hit its highest intraday price since July 25 earlier, topping out at $125.27. Now, CVX is up 1.9% at $123.78 after finding its footing atop the $123 region, which has alternately acted as support and resistance this calendar year.

Unlike XOM, with its 80% "hold" and "sell" ratings, CVX has a fairly bullish following among brokerage firms. Twelve of the 14 analysts in coverage call Chevron a "buy" or better, and the consensus 12-month price target of $138 represents a level the security has yet to touch. 

 

 

Published on Sep 16, 2019 at 3:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview
  • Analyst Update

The shares of FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) are lower today, after J.P. Morgan Securities cut its December 2020 price target by $4 to $168. This comes just one day before the shipping giant's fiscal first-quarter earnings report, slated for release after the close tomorrow, Sept. 17, and has the stock down 0.5% to trade at $173.19.

Historically speaking, FDX has tended to underperform the day after earnings. In fact, just three of its last eight next-day moves were positive. Plus, the security suffered a massive post-earnings plummet of 12.2% after FedEx's December report. This time around, the options market is pricing in a swing of 8%, much bigger than the 4.1% post-earnings move FDX has averaged over the past two years. 

Another post-earnings swing south could draw more bear noes. Nine analysts currently call the stock a "buy" or better, while seven say it's a "hold" or worse. Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus price target of $187.19 is a roughly 8% premium to current levels. 

Elsewhere on the sentiment front, short-term options players are more put-skewed than usual. The equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.39 is in the 97th percentile of its annual range. The October 85 put is home to peak open interest on FDX, and data from the major options exchanges confirms sell-to-open activity at this deep out-of-the-money strike. By selling the puts, speculators may be setting a short-term floor -- or looking to profit on a post-earnings volatility crush.

Taking a look at the charts, FDX was recently able to rally off its late-August three-year low of $147.95. The shares are running out of steam in the $175 region, though, which has served as a ceiling since mid-May.

FDX Sept 16

Published on Sep 17, 2019 at 9:30 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of online gaming issue Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA) are up 2.2% in pre-market trading, after Stephens dubbed the name its "Best Idea" in video games, replacing sector rival Electronic Arts (EA). The analyst said ZNGA is "well positioned" ahead of an anticipated consolidation in the video game space over the next six to 18 months, and believes the stock's current portfolio creates a "very compelling risk/reward profile."

Today's pre-market moves could have the equity is testing its 100-day moving average -- a former layer of support that has kept a lid on the shares since mid-August. Longer term, ZNGA is up over 50% year-to-date, with its 160-day effectively catching the stock's recent pullback from its Aug. 1 seven-year peak of $6.65. 

Zynga has been well-loved by analysts, with 10 of the 12 in coverage calling it a "buy" or better. Plus, its consensus 12-month target price of $7.36 is at a roughly 25% premium to last night's close at $5.87, and represents a level ZNGA hasn't reached since May 2012. 

Options bulls seem to like the Words with Friends developer, too, as evidenced by the 36.32 calls that were bought to open for every put on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) in the last 10 days. What's more, this call/put volume ratio sits higher than 91% of all other readings from the last year, meaning this massive appetite for bullish bets relative to bearish is unusual. 

Published on Sep 17, 2019 at 10:01 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD) are down 1.2% to trade at $228.31 today, after Guggenheim cut its rating on the home improvement retailer to "neutral" and removed its $230 price target. The analyst in coverage is bearish on HD's relative valuation, and does not see a path to margin expansion in 2020 amid increased capital spending and expenses.

At last check, Home Depot stock was at the bottom of the Dow today. HD snagged a record high of $235.49 last Thursday, but today's pullback has it testing the 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-August. The shares are up almost 33% in 2019.

Over in the options pits, calls hold a distinct advantage. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.97 ranks 2 percentage points from an annual high. This means calls have been bought to open over puts at a much quicker-than-usual clip.

It's an attractive time to purchase premium on Home Depot options. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 44% registers in the 20th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. Plus, the equity sports a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 96 (out of a possible 100), meaning the security had handily exceeded options traders' volatility expectations during the past year.

Published on Sep 17, 2019 at 10:16 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

J.P. Morgan Securities upgraded Splunk Inc (NASDAQ:SPLK) to "overweight" from "neutral," saying the data analytics software company's $2 billion second-half bookings target may be a positive catalyst. The brokerage firm also said it expects "a long runway of growth given the company's evolving use cases and expanding platform."

In reaction, SPLK stock is up 2.6% to trade at $117.83, testing its 320-day moving average for the first time since a late-August bear gap had the shares breaching the trendline. This sell-off -- which was initially sparked by a negative earnings reaction on Aug. 22 -- brought the security back to familiar support at the $108 region, which has served as a floor for nearly all of 2019.

Options traders have been positioning for a bigger Splunk bounce. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.38 ranks in the 83rd annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a quicker-than-usual clip.

While some of this activity may have been at the hands of bullish options traders, it's also possible short sellers have initiated options hedges to guard against any additional upside risk. Short interest on SPLK jumped 14.8% in the most recent reporting period to 8.01 million shares, representing a healthy 5.3% of the stock's available float, or 3.4 times the average daily pace of trading.

Whatever the reason, it's an attractive time to purchase premium on Splunk options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 35% registers in the 16th annual percentile, meaning short-term options have priced in lower volatility expectations just 16% of the time over the past year.

Published on Sep 17, 2019 at 10:28 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) is trading up 1.1% at $77.47, after Citigroup gave the stock a "buy" rating, citing the company's opportunity in international markets -- though the brokerage firm also deemed the equity "high risk." MTCH shares have pulled back some since their record high of $95.32 from Aug. 7, but in recent days they've been consolidating just atop their 80-day moving average. After falling below this trendline yesterday, the equity reversed higher by the close to reclaim it once more, and it still sports a year-to-date gain of 81%.

Digging into the options data around the stock, peak open interest is at the September 90 call, where more than 15,000 contracts are sitting. Match Group options have been unusually popular from a broader sense, too, since open interest of almost 151,000 contracts ranks in the 100th annual percentile.

For what it's worth, short-term contracts have relatively low premiums priced in. This is according to our Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 42%, which ranks in the 15th annual percentile. Meanwhile, MTCH has a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 53, showing the options market has tended to do a good job pricing the security's volatility expectations in the past year.

But turning all the way back to analyst attention, most Wall Street firms are taking a wait-and-see approach, handing out "hold" ratings on the security. However, the average 12-month price target is up at $88.56.

Published on Sep 17, 2019 at 1:11 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Unusual Trading Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

Stocks are trading mixed today, but little changed overall, as investors continue to eye volatile crude oil prices and a looming Fed policy decision. Three stocks in particular making moves, though, are drugmaker Evoke Pharma Inc (NASDAQ:EVOK), restaurant name Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ:CBRL), and aquarium concern SeaWorld Entertainment Inc (NYSE:SEAS). Below, we'll look at what's moving the shares of EVOK, CBRL, and SEAS. 

EVOK Stock Pops on Nasal Spray Progress

Evoke Pharma is eyeing its third consecutive win today, guided higher by recent support at the 20-day moving average, after it completed commercial-scale manufacturing of its nasal spray, Gimoti. Data from the production run will be used as EVOK looks to resubmit the drug for marketing approval in the fourth quarter. 

The penny stock is up 3.9% at $1.01, and hit a near two-month high of $1.10 earlier today. EVOK is looking to close above the $1 mark for the first time since July 30, and short sellers could be helping the equity's case. Despite its proximity to theoretical support at zero, 3.2% of EVOK's float remains dedicated to short interest.

Earnings Beat Boosts Cracker Barrel Stock

The shares of CBRL are 1.6% higher to trade at $167.50 after the firm reported fiscal fourth-quarter profits of $2.70 per share and $787.1 million in revenue -- both of which beat analysts' estimates. Cracker Barrel also offered fiscal 2020 earnings and revenue guidance that edged past consensus expectations. However, after an early pop above $174 per share, the equity is back below familiar resistance at $168. 

The typically quiet CBRL options pits have become quite noisy today, with 5,265 calls and 2,324 puts crossing the tape -- 14 times the expected intraday volume. New positions are being opened at the September 172 call, a strike price CBRL hasn't closed above in over a month. 

SEAS Stock Sinks on CEO Departure 

SeaWorld Entertainment, on the other hand, has taken a nosedive today after its CEO of seven months, Gustavo Antorcha, stepped down "due to disagreements over the Board’s involvement in the decision making at the Company," per an SEC filing. While the search for a successor takes place, Chief Financial Officer Marc Swanson will serve as interim CEO.

The security is down 3% at $29.20, with recent support at the $28 region -- home to its 160-day moving average -- keeping the stock from slipping back to its May pre-bull gap levels. Despite today's dip, SEAS still boasts a 32% year-to-date gain.

Among options traders, SEAS sports a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 9.56 on the the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio ranks higher than 95% of all other readings from the past year, suggesting a much healthier appetite for calls over puts in recent weeks. 

 

 

Published on Sep 17, 2019 at 2:27 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis

Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG) announced this morning that the company is continuing its partnership with Europe's Engie to expand renewable energy services around the globe. Still, PLUG shares were last seen down 2.2% at $2.70, stalling out again in the $2.80 region that's capped previous rallies this year. This comes after a sharp bounce from the 200-day moving average last month, which has helped the stock more than double year-to-date.

plug stock sept 17

The security may have been due for a pullback anyway, since it's been running pretty hot in recent weeks. For instance, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 83, deep into overbought territory. Call buyers have been along for the ride, since the 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows almost 17 long calls opened for every put.

More broadly, there's notable open interest of almost 5,200 contracts at the front-month September 2.50 call, and traders have also taken interest in the September 3 call, where more than 3,700 contracts are sitting. Total open interest is 72,821, ranking in the 100th annual percentile.

Filling out the sentiment scene, short interest is still elevated, near the levels we saw back in March. On the other hand, analysts are bullish, with four of the six covering firms handing out "strong buy" recommendations on Plug Power. 

Published on Sep 18, 2019 at 9:51 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE) are down 3.6% to trade at $275.82 this morning, after a mixed quarterly report. The software company reported adjusted fiscal third-quarter earnings of $2.05 per share on $2.83 billion in revenue, topping forecasts for a $1.97 per-share profit on $2.82 billion in revenue. However, Adobe also trimmed its current-quarter revenue guidance, citing slow growth from its marketing software unit Marketo. 

To analysts, the weak forecast overshadows the earnings and revenue beats. So far, five brokerages have issued price-target cuts, the lowest coming from BMO and Instinet to $310. The analyst in coverage at RBC thinks these revenue issues will remain over the next few years, but believes ADBE will remain at a premium valuation. 

This is pacing to be Adobe stock's worst day in over a month, and puts it on pace to snap a five-day winning streak. Since a July 19 record high of $313.11, ADBE has given back 12%. During this skid, the shares' descending 30-day moving average has kept a lid on breakouts. Nevertheless, the equity is still up 22% on the year. 

The security is at risk for more bearish analyst attention though, and that could keep the pressure on. Of the 21 brokerages covering ADBE, 14 rate it a "buy" or better, with zero "sells" on the books. In addition, the equity's consensus 12-month price target of $313.19 is now a nearly 14% premium from its current perch.

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