Earnings Season Highlights

Refresh your browser for the latest updates!
A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jun 1, 2017 at 1:44 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

Factory data will highlight a relatively light economic calendar next week week. On the earnings front, GoPro supplier Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA) and alternative energy issue Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ) will be in focus. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will undoubtedly capture some headlines, with the company's highly anticipated Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) kicking off on Monday, and former FBI Director James Comey will reportedly testify before a Senate panel. And, of course, anticipation will continue to build ahead of the June 13-14 Fed meeting.

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

On Monday, June 5, factory orders, the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index, and productivity and labor costs data will all be released. Ascena Retail Group (ASNA), Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY), Navistar (NAV), Thor Industries (THO), and Xcerra Corp (XCRA) will kick off the week with earnings reports. Apple's annual WWDC will also begin in San Jose.

On Tuesday, June 6, Wall Street will chew on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), while Ambarella (AMBA), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Francesca's (FRAN), Fred's (FRED), HD Supply Holdings (HDS), Michaels Companies (MIK), Oxford Industries (OXM), and Sigma Designs (SIGM) all report earnings.

On Wednesday, June 7, the regularly scheduled weekly crude inventories and consumer credit data will be released. ABM Industries (ABM), Cherokee (CHKE), and Tailored Brands (TLRD) will report earnings.

On Thursday, June 8, the Fed's balance sheet will be released, as well as the regularly scheduled weekly jobless claims. J M Smucker (SJM) and Verifone (PAY) report earnings. Ex-FBI Director James Comey will reportedly testify in front of a Senate panel.

Closing out the week on Friday, June 9, will be wholesale inventories and the weekly Baker-Hughes rig count. Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) closes out the week on the earnings front. Apple will wrap up its WWDC event.

Published on Jun 1, 2017 at 2:32 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The stock market is trading higher following a round of well-received economic data. Among the stocks making big moves are central nervous system disease specialist Minerva Neurosciences Inc (NASDAQ:NERV), automaker Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), and casino name Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN). Here's a quick look at what's moving shares of NERV, F, and WYNN.

NERV Stock Soars On New Deal With JNJ Unit

Minerva Neurosciences stock is trading up 25.5% at $10.35, near the top of the Nasdaq, after the drugmaker amended an agreement with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) unit Janssen Pharmaceutical over its insomnia drug MIN-202. The new terms -- conditional upon JNJ's completed purchase of Actelion -- will give NERV all rights and royalties to the drug. Adding to this bullish backdrop, JMP Securities boosted its price target to $20 from $17, in record-high territory.

While NERV stock is still in the red on a year-to-date basis, today's bull gap is likely catching a recent batch of bearish bettors off guard. Short interest on Minerva Neurosciences rose 6.6% in the most recent two-week reporting period, and now accounts for 9.1% of the stock's float -- or 11.6 times the average pace of trading.

F Stock Surge Stokes Call Volume

Roughly one week after announcing a CEO switch, Ford Motor emerged as the top-selling automaker last month, due to big rise in fleet sales. As such, F stock has jumped 3.6% today to trade at $11.51, and is on track to close north of its 50-day moving average for the first time since mid-March. Ford options traders are rushing toward calls, with more than 67,000 contracts traded so far -- two times what's typically seen at this point in the day. While a number of speculators are selling to close their June 11 calls, new positions are being purchased at the weekly 6/2 11.50-strike call as traders eye bigger gains for Ford stock through expiration at tomorrow's close.

WYNN Stock Set for 5th Straight Gain After Macau Beat

Macau gaming revenue jumped 23.7% last month, handily beating the consensus estimate for 16.5% growth. The upbeat data is providing tailwinds for the casino sector, with Wynn Resorts stock trading up 4.3% at $134.19 -- fresh off a two-year high of $135.26, and on track to extend its winning streak to a fifth straight session. 

Wynn stock has had a solid 2017, and is now boasting a more than 55% year-to-date lead. Short sellers have been in covering mode, too. Short interest is down 28.5% since mid-December to 6.15 million WYNN shares -- the fewest since May 2015.

Published on Jun 1, 2017 at 2:52 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • By the Numbers
  • Quantitative Analysis
Last week, we took a look at the best stocks to buy in June. It's now time to take a look at the stocks to avoid during the month, according to historical data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. We already located one sector that may struggle during June, and below we outline 25 stocks that could underperform in the short term -- including two airline stocks.

June is a historically lackluster month for the stock market in general. However, leisure stocks -- represented by the PowerShares Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ) -- could struggle especially hard, if past is prologue. By the numbers, PEJ has lost an average of 3.1% during the past 10 Junes, ending positive just 30% of the time. 

june etfs

Airline Stocks Could Struggle in June

Next, we looked at the worst individual stocks during June, and as one would expect, some PEJ holdings sport big losses. Two names that stick out are airline stocks Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) and United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL). As you can see below, DAL stock has ended June higher only twice in the past 10 years, losing 5.6% on average, and UAL stock also has just two positive finishes during that time, averaging a loss of 9.7%. 

worst june stocks june 1


Put Buying at Annual Extreme on DAL Stock

Taking a closer look at Delta stock, the shares have been trending higher since taking a strong bounce of their 200-day moving average in mid-April. As it stands now, DAL is trading at $49.84 -- just pennies above its year-to-date breakeven level. However, the overhead $52 area has acted as a ceiling for Delta shares of late, and could once again cap the stock's advances.

Compared to what's normally seen, options traders have been unusually bearish on Delta in recent weeks. Specifically, the shares have a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.00 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) -- an annual high. But whether you're bullish or bearish, it's a good time to buy DAL's short-term options, based on its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 27%. This reading ranks lower than 87% of all others from the past year, hinting at unusually low volatility expectations being priced into near-term options. 

Options Attractive on UAL Stock

Turning to United Continental stock, the shares have outperformed their sector peer this year, adding 10.7% year-to-date. In fact, UAL stock hit a record high of $81.69 just last week, and was last seen up 1.3% today at $80.68, after the company announced it'll offer nonstop flights from Los Angeles to Singapore. 

In the options pits, UAL traders have remained call-skewed on an absolute basis, but like its sector peer, the stock has seen a stronger-than-normal interest in long puts. Specifically, United Continental has a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.86 at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, landing in the 69th annual percentile. Also, its options are attractive right now, from a historical volatility perspective, since its SVI of 30% sits just 15 percentage points from an annual low. 
Published on May 30, 2017 at 1:24 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Weekly Options
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Stocks highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are bank stocks JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), as pressure from Italian banks spreads to the U.S. Here's a quick rundown of how options traders are placing bets on shares of JPM and GS. 

most active options

Options Traders Bearish on JPM Stock

JPMorgan stock has given back 1.1% today to trade at $84.40, with the shares on pace for their first close below their 150-day moving average since last July. But while JPM stock remains stuck below its year-to-date breakeven level near $86, it has continued to find support in the $84 neighborhood since December. 

In the options pits, put buying has been unusually popular relative to call buying in recent weeks. For instance, JPMorgan has a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.12 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks above 89% of readings from the past year. 

One option that's seen notable action during the past two weeks is the weekly 6/9 83-strike put, where nearly 2,300 positions were added. Data from the major options exchanges confirms almost exclusive buy-to-open activity here, meaning options traders are betting on JPM shares dipping below $83 by close on Friday, June 9, when the contracts expire. 

It's certainly a good time to buy JPMorgan options, too. This is according to the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 15%, which is just 9 percentage points from an annual low. In other words, near-term options are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations at the moment. Plus, the shares have a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 92, indicating the bank stock's tendency to outperform volatility expectations over the past year. 

Options Traders Target Calls on Underperforming GS Stock

Goldman Sachs stock has dropped 1.9% today, making it the top Dow loser, and was last seen trading at $218.64. The shares have been hitting a series of lower highs since mid-March, with the descending 50-day moving average now applying overhead pressure. 

Options traders have remained bullish, however. GS' 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.74 at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX ranks in the 63rd annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at an accelerated clip. Of the weekly options that have yet to expire, the weekly 6/2 225-strike call saw the largest increase in open interest over the past 10 days, with 2,502 contracts added. Data from the major exchanges confirms some buy-to-open action here, meaning bulls are betting on GS stock closing this week above $225. 

It's also a good time to buy options on Goldman Sachs. The shares have an SVI of 17%, falling in just the 4th percentile of its annual range. Moreover, GS has an SVS of 98. 
Published on May 30, 2017 at 2:00 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The Dow is lower this afternoon, amid weakness in bank stocks. Among the stocks making big moves are media concern TiVo Corp (NASDAQ:TIVO), drugmaker Celyad SA (ADR) (NASDAQ:CYAD), and offshore driller Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (NYSE:ATW). Here's a quick look at what's moving shares of TIVO, CYAD, and ATW.

Patent Ruling Boosts TIVO Stock

TiVo stock is rallying today, last seen 12.2% higher at $18.40, thanks to a favorable patent ruling against Comcast. The shares are now on track to close north of their 50-day moving average for the first time since May 3. Analysts are very bullish on TIVO shares, too, with all four covering brokerage firms issuing a "strong buy" rating. Plus, the stock has an average 12-month price target of $30 -- territory not seen since April 2012. 

CYAD Stock Stays Hot on Patent News

Celyad received another U.S. patent for its allogeneic cancer treatment, news that has the shares up 9.7% at $43.84. CYAD stock has more than doubled year-to-date, successfully filling a bear gap from last June. There's been a surge in short interest of late, so these gains aren't good news for all traders. In fact, short interest on Celyad stock jumped 152% in the most recent two-week reporting period -- though short interest on the equity remains negligible overall. 

M&A News Puts ATW Stock Near the Top of the NYSE

Exactly one week after Goldman Sachs called Atwood Oceanics an "attractive M&A target," ENSCO has announced it plans to buy the company in an all-stock deal valued at $839 million -- or $10.72 per ATW share. As such, ATW stock is up 24.5% at $10.06, making it one of the top gainers on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Published on May 30, 2017 at 2:56 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
  • Best and Worst Stocks
Signs are suggesting the stock market is entering a period of low volatility -- an ideal scenario for options buyers. While call buyers may want to drill down on this list of the 25 best stocks for June, put buyers may want to take a closer look at financial shares. Specifically, the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is one of the worst-performing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the month of June, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. The average June XLF loss over the past 10 years is 3.4%, with the ETF positive just 20% of the time.

worst etfs to buy in june

XLF Has Struggled as the Trump Trade Loses Steam

XLF shares surged more than 46% from their June 27 post-Brexit low of $17.31 to their March 2 nine-year high of $25.30 -- a milestone that was inspired by a big rally in financial stocks on hopes the Trump administration would deregulate and cut taxes on the industry. However, the so-called Trump trade has lost steam in recent months.

And though XLF has repeatedly found a floor in the $23.00-$23.50 region -- home to its year-to-date breakeven mark and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally -- the formerly supportive 50-day moving average appears to have switched roles to act as resistance. Today, XLF is trading down 0.7% at $23.44, as bank stocks struggle on Europe woes.

XLF Put Options Have Been Popular

XLF options traders have been growing increasingly skeptical in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the ETF's 10-day put/call volume ratio has jumped to 1.30 from 0.60 in the past two weeks. The current ratio ranks higher than 61% of all comparable readings taken in the past year, pointing to a slightly heavier-than-usual bearish bias among speculative players.

Echoing this put-heavy backdrop is XLF's front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio of 2.39, which indicates near-the-money put open interest more than doubles call open interest among standard June options. The June 22 put is XLF's top open interest position, with 442,120 contracts outstanding.

XLF Short Sellers Have Been Jumping Ship

While this put-heavy strike has the potential to act as a magnet for XLF in the near term, short sellers have been abandoning their bearish positions of late -- meaning there's little in the way of sideline cash available to help fuel potential rallies. Short interest on XLF plunged nearly 16% in the two most recent reporting periods to 78 million shares, or 1.3 times the fund's average daily pace of trading.

XLF Options are Affordably Priced

Those wanting to bet on XLF's near-term trajectory -- one that includes an upcoming Fed meeting -- should strike while the iron's hot. The ETF's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22% ranks lower than 88% of all comparable readings taken in the past year, meaning low volatility expectations are being priced into XLF's short-term options, a potential boon to premium buyers.
Published on May 30, 2017 at 9:18 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades

Analysts are weighing in on internet game developer Zynga Inc (NASDAQ:ZNGA), Taco Bell parent Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM), and healthcare stock Urogen Pharma Ltd (NASDAQ:URGN). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on shares of ZNGA, YUM, and URGN.

ZNGA Stock Upgraded at Piper Jaffray

Ahead of Thursday's appearance at the Cowen Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, Zynga saw its rating raised to "overweight" from "neutral," and its price target upped to $4 from $3 at Piper Jaffray. The brokerage firm said that despite increased competition for game stocks, ZNGA's strong management team -- which includes former members of Electronic Arts -- and its focus on cost containment "improve its risk profile."

After closing Friday at $3.49, ZNGA stock is up 2.6% in electronic trading. This would just be more of the same for Zynga shares, which are up 45% from their February low of $2.40 -- and hit a three-year high of $3.63 last Thursday. Most analysts remain on the sidelines, though, with a tepid "hold" recommendation, while the average 12-month price target stands at $3.47.

YUM Stock Price Target Raised After Record High

Several strong bounces off its 200-day moving average earlier this year helped YUM stock soar to a record high $72.52 on Friday, with the shares eventually settling at $71.03 -- up 13.8% on the year. This may be what prompted Cowen and Company to boost their price target on the security to $85 from $80. Regardless, there's plenty of room for more analysts to upwardly revise their ratings, which could draw more buyers to Yum stock's table. More than half of the 16 covering brokerages maintain a "hold" rating, while the consensus annual price target of $74.32 represents a slim 3.1% premium to YUM's current perch.

Brokerage Firms Issue "Buy" Ratings on URGN Stock 

URGN stock received the equivalent of a "buy" initiation from no fewer than four brokerage firms, with Cowen and Company waxing optimistic over the drugmaker's MitoGel and VesiGel cancer treatments. Urogen Pharma went public earlier this month, and since its May 4 open at $13.28, the stock has surged more than 39%, based on Friday's close at $18.48.

Published on May 30, 2017 at 9:53 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades

Analysts are weighing in on oil-and-gas stocks Whiting Petroleum Corp (NYSE:WLL) and Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE:VLO), as well as semiconductor concern and GoPro supplier Ambarella Inc (NASDAQ:AMBA). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on shares of WLL, VLO, and AMBA.

WLL Stock Downgraded to 'Sell'

Whiting Petroleum stock was downgraded to "sell" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs, which also slashed its price target on the stock by 37% to $7.50 -- a discount to WLL stock's closing price of $7.97 on Friday. The security has kicked off a historically bad week for energy stocks down 5% to trade at $7.57, widening its year-to-date deficit to nearly 37%. Short sellers have been in control of WLL stock, too. Short interest surged 26% in the two most recent reporting periods, and now accounts for 15.2% of the equity's available float.

Morgan Stanley Downgrades VLO Stock

Valero Energy stock was downgraded to "equal weight" at Morgan Stanley, sending the shares down 2% to trade at $61.41. The shares have struggled since their Jan 3. annual high at $71.40, and surrendered a long-term perch atop their 200-day moving average last Friday.

VLO options traders have been betting on a bounce, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.23 ranks in the 72nd annual percentile. In other words, calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

AMBA Stock Cut to 'Sector Weight' at Pacific Crest

Ambarella stock is down 6.7% at $60.71, after Pacific Crest Securities downgraded the shares to "sector weight" from "overweight." This negative price action is a change of pace for the shares, which dipped below $50 as recently as late April. AMBA options traders have been anticipating higher highs ahead of Ambarella's after-the-close June 6 earnings report. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, AMBA's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.69 ranks just 6 percentage points from a 52-week peak.

Published on May 30, 2017 at 10:15 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The Dow is trading lower to start the holiday-shortened week on a negative note. Among specific stocks on the move are oil shipping company Frontline Ltd. (NYSE:FRO), as well as drugmakers Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:PTGX) and Array Biopharma (NASDAQ:ARRY). Here's a quick look at what's moving shares of FRO, PTGX, and ARRY. 

FRO Stock Lower After Earnings

Frontline stock is down 0.9% at $5.57, after the company's first-quarter earnings missed forecasts. This comes after the stock hit an all-time low of $5.48 on Friday. In fact, FRO shares have shed roughly 37% over the past 12 months. Still, Clarksons Platou reiterated its "buy" recommendation -- the only brokerage firm to issue such a rating. The other three analysts tracking Frontline give it just a "hold" rating. 

PTGX Shares Skyrocket on JNJ Deal

Protagonist Therapeutics stock is the best performer on the Nasdaq so far, up 46.8% at $12.07, thanks to news of a collaboration with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) to develop a bowel drug. The shares had been falling fast since topping out above $26 in December, and they're now trading at levels not seen since early April. Meanwhile, short interest on PTGX stock rose by 12.2% in the last two reporting periods, so some bears may be hurting today. 

Bristol-Myers Collaboration Fails to Lift ARRY Stock

Array Biopharma stock is also trading lower, on news the company will collaborate with Bristol-Myers Squibb for a colorectal cancer treatment. ARRY shares were last seen down 1% at $8.08, as they continue to bounce between the $8 and $8.50 levels -- home to their 200-day 50-day moving averages, respectively. ARRY stock has the strong backing of the analyst community, though, with eight of nine brokerages saying it's a "strong buy." 
Published on May 30, 2017 at 11:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis
  • Technical Analysis
  • Best and Worst Stocks
If recent history is any indicator, bullish stock and options traders may want to consider a pair of biotechs before June kicks off on Thursday. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, two healthcare stocks tend to outperform in the month of June, going back 10 years: genetic analysis provider Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) and heart valve manufacturer Edwards Lifesciences Corp (NYSE:EW). Below, we'll take a look at ILMN and EW stocks, as well as the 25 best stocks to own in June.

ILMN, EW Top 25 Best Stocks to Own in June

Below are the 25 best stocks to own next month, if the past 10 years is prologue. White looked at S&P 500 Index (SPX) components that have traded at least eight years, with ILMN topping the list. Illumina stock has averaged the best monthly return of all SPX components, tacking on a healthy 6.52%. Plus, ILMN has ended June higher 80% of the time over the past 10 years.

Edwards Lifesciences shares are a close second. EW stock has averaged a June gain of 5.95%, going back 10 years, and ended the month higher 80% of the time. In fact, ILMN and EW make up half the SPX stocks with a win rate of 80% in June.

best stocks to buy in june

Short Squeeze, Upgrades Could Push ILMN Stock Higher

Illumina shares have added nearly 38% in 2017, thanks to a massive mid-January bull gap, stemming from the company's earnings forecast and new genetic sequencing platform. However, earlier this month, ILMN stock ran into a familiar wall in the $185-$190 neighborhood, which capped the stock's advances in mid-2016. This region also limited ILMN's momentum in late 2015. At last check -- and ahead of the company's annual shareholder meeting later today -- Illumina shares were fractionally higher at $175.95.

illumina stock ILMN chart


An unwinding of pessimism could certainly help ILMN extend its journey higher and barrel through resistance. Short interest on the stock represents a week's worth of pent-up buying demand, at ILMN's average pace of trading. Meanwhile, eight out of 18 analysts maintain "hold" or "strong sell" opinions of the shares, leaving the door open for potential upgrades to lure more buyers to the table.

For options traders hoping ILMN once again outperforms in June, its short-term contracts are very attractively priced right now; the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24% is at an annual low. Likewise, its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 67 indicates Illumina stock has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations during the past year.

EW Options Trading at a Bargain

Edwards Lifesciences stock has also outperformed in 2017, up nearly 22% to sit at $114.05. The stock gapped higher in late April, thanks to solid earnings and guidance, but has struggled to take out former support in the $115-$116 area -- where EW stock was trading before a massive bear gap in October.

edwards lifesciences EW stock chart


An exodus of option bears could add fuel to Edwards' fire. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.52 is higher than 96% of all other readings from the past year. Meanwhile, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is at an annual peak of 1.41, indicating near-term options traders have rarely been more put-heavy on EW stock.

Again, those looking for more June upside from EW shares can scoop up the stock's short-term options at a discount. The equity's SVI of 20% is lower than 99% of all other readings from the past 12 months, suggesting Edwards Lifesciences options are attractively priced, from a historical volatility standpoint. Plus, EW boasts an SVS of 77, suggesting the stock has made bigger moves than options traders had expected during the past year.
Published on May 30, 2017 at 8:20 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook
We entered last week amid talk of impeachment and obstruction of justice -- but in this age of social media, news flows in and out of our consciousness faster than we can even begin to digest it. The week had politicians body-slamming reporters, discussions of whether Melania Trump would hold her husband's hand, and the deadly terrorist attack that shook England and the rest of the world. The stock market, acting as a reflection of human behavior, shrugged off this news and continued to show us just how strong an old-fashioned bull market can be.

As we have discussed in previous weekly commentaries, many of the broad-market indexes entered last week at or near potential overhead round-number resistance areas. Last week, I also highlighted that the positioning of fund managers left significant room for sideline money to flow back into U.S. equities, which could support these round-number levels being taken out at some point. Well, after struggling with these short-term peaks during the past few months, round numbers on the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 2,415.82) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA - 21,080.28) were indeed taken out during this past week. Let's take a good look at a few of the major U.S. indexes to get a clearer picture of what occurred.

On Thursday, the SPX moved above 2,400 and established a new all-time high. This follows the lows in the previous week near the 2,350 half-century mark (Todd Salamone has discussed numerous times the significance of SPX half-century levels as hesitation or pivot points). The 2,350 area was also the site of the index's rising 80-day moving average and a trendline connecting the late-March and mid-April low. As you can see in the chart below, utilizing the buying pressure from this area, the SPX finally surged above a level that has been a thorn in its side since the beginning of March.

spx daily price chart 0526
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Dow moved above 21,000, but is still just below its March 1 high -- which is also its all-time closing high of 21,115. The jury is still out on whether 21,000 is behind us for good, as moves to or just above this area have been quickly met by sellers in previous months.

djia daily price chart 0526
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com


The Nasdaq Composite (COMP - 6,210.19) is in a slightly different situation than the SPX and DJIA. When analyzing an index or ETF, it is always important to understand what the actual holdings are, and not just think of it as a symbol. Approximately 45% of COMP components are technology stocks, whereas tech accounts for only about 23% of the SPX and 18% of the Dow, respectively. The COMP's heavier weighting in tech stocks has been handsomely rewarded in recent months, as you can clearly see in the chart below. COMP recently found support at the round-number 6,000 level in the previous week's sell-off, but took out its mid-month all-time high on Thursday -- confirming its leadership role in 2017.

comp daily price chart 0526
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com


While technology stocks and the COMP maintain their leadership status, the same cannot be said for small-cap stocks. As evidenced by the chart below, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT - 1,382.24) is still well below the 1,400 level, as well as its all-time closing high from late April of 1,419.43. Its range since December 2016 continues, as it has continually bounced between the 1,350 area and just above the 1,400 level. It's also worth noting that the 2016 close of 1,357.13 is the site of much of the congestion that has occurred to start this year.

rut daily price chart 0526
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com


Speaking of underperformance, let's talk about energy stocks. During the past six months, energy remains the one and only sector posting negative results. We continue to avoid this sector, as headlines that are seemingly bullish fail to produce meaningful buying. In addition to its underperformance, analysts' "buy" ratings on energy-related stocks have increased relative to a year ago, while short interest on these names has decreased only slightly. This is an unhealthy combination, and suggests energy could be a sector that continues to disappoint.

Many people entered last week with expectations that OPEC would extend its production cuts for another nine months, and rumors even surfaced that perhaps they would also increase the amount of the production cuts. This turned out to be a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news." Participants bid up oil in the days ahead of the OPEC meeting, and when the decision was announced (to extend cuts without increasing the magnitude), oil and energy stocks promptly sold off.

In addition, the Trump administration released its 2018 full-year budget proposal, which included the idea to sell $16.5 billion of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help cut the deficit. In combination, it was not the best of weeks for energy stocks, as many were negative despite the SPX making a new high.

sector etf performance ytd 2017 0526


On the sentiment front, short interest on SPX components is starting to pick up after massive covering between March 2016 and the beginning of 2017. Total short interest on SPX stocks is up 8.4% since early February, when the index was trading around 2,270, or about 140 points below its current level. If the SPX was lower, I would view the advance in short interest as bearish, as the index weakens and shorts build positions. However, the SPX is higher -- so this could have bullish implications, as the shorts are in a losing position and thus more apt to cover, lending a supportive factor to the market.

spx stock short interest 0526


This week is a holiday-shortened one, but we will be faced with a few potentially market-moving events. April's personal income, personal spending, and PCE prices (inflation) will be released Monday. In addition, the ISM index will be released on Thursday, followed by the Labor Department's monthly payrolls report for May on Friday. All of this information may be relevant to investors' expectations for when and how often the Fed might raise rates this year.

As of right now, the CBOE FedWatch Tool indicates an 83.1% expectation of a rate hike at the June meeting, and is pricing in two more rate hikes before the end of the year. The minutes from the May 3 meeting were released last week, and the Fed gave a glimpse as to how it might begin to unwind its massive balance sheet later in the year. With the SPX comfortably above its May 3 closing level, and no rate hike earlier this month, we may be embarking on a repeat of the post-Fed rally from February.

Continue reading:

Published on May 30, 2017 at 8:45 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Bernie's Content

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the June 2017 edition of The Option Advisor, published on May 25. For more information, or to subscribe to The Option Advisor -- featuring 10 new option trades each month --  visit our online store.

The summer months in the stock market are somewhat notorious for sluggish price action. And last year's Brexit shock notwithstanding, the upcoming month of June typically lives up to this stereotype in superlative fashion.

Looking back over the last 50 years, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has recorded an average return of 0.11% during the month of June. The returns have been fairly evenly split between gains and losses, at 56% positive; the average June advance is 2.39%, while the average loss is 2.79%. That average gain is the smallest of all 12 months -- as is June's standard deviation of returns, at 3.26%.

spx returns by month 0525

Adjusting our focus to daily returns by month, the story remains the same. In the past five decades, the average daily S&P move during the month of June has amounted to 0.01%, with the average gain arriving at 0.64% (tied with July for the smallest average daily positive return). And once again, the standard deviation of returns, at 0.87%, is the lowest of all months.

spx daily returns by month 0525

Corporate earnings season has largely wound down, and consensus expectations are currently pricing in a high probability of a June rate hike by the Federal Open Market Committee (per the CME Group's fed fund futures) -- which points to a generally uneventful stretch directly ahead, in terms of major market-moving events. While ongoing controversies have left a seemingly permanent cloud of uncertainty over the Trump administration, which potentially creates the opportunity for a Brexit-magnitude shock on Capitol Hill in the near future, it's worth considering that investors have, over the past year, somewhat broadened their capacity for surprise.

And depending upon the frame of reference, the current level of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX - 9.99) could be accurately described as either low or high -- low relative to its own historical average, but high relative to the S&P's historical volatility, which is hovering around 8 as of this writing. As recently as May options expiration, spot VIX was almost double the S&P's historical volatility reading -- creating a solid premium-selling opportunity for options traders, even as the VIX stayed well below its own 10-year average of around 20.

Note that the VIX high last week (associated with the "Trump Dump" that occurred concurrent with the expiration of May VIX futures options) occurred at 16.30 -- on par with the index's April peak, and in the same neighborhood as half the 2016 intraday high. Last week's high in this region effectively legitimizes the significance of the VIX 16 level as the site of key volatility tops in the current volatility regime. Meanwhile, VIX 17.01 represents 1.5 times the August closing low. A close above this zone would be a convincing indicator that a lasting VIX breakout may be at hand.

Yet, barring the appearance of any black swans over the next four weeks, it seems statistically probable that we're on the cusp of a low-volatility grind in the stock market. Given June's historical tendency to foster a general state of torpor in the stock market, traders might assume the sidelines are the best place to ride out the expected sideways churn. But in addition to the short-term premium selling opportunity noted above, there are also plenty of opportunities for option buyers at present.

That's due in large part to the relatively low implied volatility readings on individual stocks -- which is a fairly widespread phenomenon, now that we've emerged from the thick of quarterly earnings season. Low implied volatility levels beget low option prices, and cheap options offer enhanced leverage when trading a directional move (as with call and put buying strategies, including straddles, pair trading, and the like).

So even if the overall market remains muted in the short term, option-buying strategies allow traders to capitalize on individual stock movers by way of the leverage inherently afforded to option buyers (in which the gains on the option play are a multiple of the percentage move in the underlying equity). In other words -- in lieu of tying up cash with share purchases (or accepting the steep risk profile and margin requirements of selling shares short), one can reduce his cash outlay and overall market exposure through the purchase of options, while still participating in a stock's directional movement..

In addition to providing enhanced leverage, cheap options also provide investors a low-cost way to hedge their long stock positions, or a portfolio of stocks (assuming put options are priced on par with call options). Buying protective put option hedges while they're "on sale" allows traders to limit their downside risk amid concerns over a possible stock market correction, given the degree of headline risk both here and abroad -- particularly with major U.S. equity indexes trading around formidable round-number levels.

Begin the New Year With Schaeffer's 7 FREE 2022 Stock Picks!

1640638248

 


MORE | MARKETstories


Stocks Eye Weekly Losses Despite Multiple Record Closes
All three major indexes are now headed for weekly losses
Airline Stocks Cheer Delta's Upbeat Report
Options traders are loading up on airline stocks AAL, UAL