Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Sep 30, 2019 at 10:34 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of pharmaceutical company Amgen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN) are higher, after the company presented data for AMG510 at the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) summit over the weekend. The treatment is currently being tested on patients with advanced colorectal cancer and those with non-small cell lung cancer in early stage studies. AMGN stock is up 0.7% at $196.35, set to snap its four-day win streak.

Since gapping beneath the 20-day moving average in early September, the equity has traveled mostly lower -- with one attempt to break north halted near that trendline. Today, the equity is testing its footing atop its 50-day moving average -- which happens to coincide with the AMGN's year-to-date breakeven, and emerged as support late last week. 

Analysts have been cautious on AMGN, with 11 giving it a tepid "hold" rating, compared to only six calling it a "strong buy." What's more, the consensus 12-month target price of $214.84 is at a slim 10.2% to last night's close. 

Short interest, meanwhile, has been in decline, down 18.8% during the last two reporting periods to 7.92 million shares. This accounts for just 1.3% of the stock's available float, or 2.5 times the average daily pace of trading. 

Elsewhere, options traders have been unusually bullish, with 1.36 calls bought to open for every put on the the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) during the past 10 sessions. This ratio is in the 93rd percentile of its annual range, suggesting a much healthier appetite for calls over puts of late. 

Published on Sep 30, 2019 at 11:44 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Analysts are chiming in on Canadian clinical-stage biopharmaceutical firm BELLUS Health Inc (NASDAQ:BLU) today. Specifically, Jefferies initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating and a $20 price target -- a 208% premium to last night's close at $6.48.

Cowen followed suit with its own "outperform" rating, saying the company holds "blockbuster promise" in the chronic cough market, and called the shares undervalued. Guggenheim also weighed in, starting coverage with a "buy" rating and a $12 price target. All three brokerage firms served as lead underwriters on BLU's U.S. share offering, with the stock going public on the Nasdaq earlier this month.

Specifically, BLU stock opened at $7.50 on Sept. 5. The shares went on to slide all the way down to $6.22 by Sept. 27, and were last seen trading at $6.51 -- up 0.5% on the day, but stuck below their newly formed 10-day moving average.

blu stock daily price chart on sept 30

Published on Sep 30, 2019 at 2:44 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

Big gains from Apple (AAPL) are helping boost stocks at midday. Three other names making major moves are RV manufacturers Thor Industries, Inc. (NYSE:THO) and Winnebago Industries, Inc. (NYSE:WGO), as well as egg producer Cal-Maine Foods Inc (NASDAQ:CALM). Below, we'll explore what's driving the shares of THO, WGO, and CALM. 

THO Stock Eyes Biggest One-Day Pop in Eight Years 

The shares of THO are up 14.6% at $56.08, after the RV producer revealed a better-than-expected profit for its fiscal fourth quarter. The firm cited a favorable product mix and lower costs in its North American towable unit. Thor also reported revenue that fell short of estimates, but said it felt optimistic about its fiscal 2020 forecast.

Today's surge has the equity eyeing its biggest one-day percentage gain in over eight years, with THO now facing off with its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2018. What's more, the security is trading back atop its year-to-date breakeven mark. 

Sector Boost Shoots WGO Stock Higher 

As a result of THO's great day, sector peer Winnebago is also getting a boost. The stock is up 7.3% at $38.54, rallying hard off its 100-day moving average. Looking more broadly, WGO stock hit a one-month peak of $40.61 in late September, before easing back below this round-number mark, but remains 58% higher year-to-date. 

Short sellers have been jumping ship, with these bearish bets down 5.7% in the last two reporting periods. However, the 3.9 million shares sold short still represent a solid 12.7% of the stock's available float, and would take nearly two weeks to cover, at WGO's average pace of trading. This could help propel the stock higher, should even more of these pessimistic positions begin to unwind. 

CALM Stock Gets Egg on its Face After Earnings

Cal-Maine Foods is seeing a major gap lower today, after the egg producer revealed a fiscal first-quarter loss of 94 cents per share on revenue of $241.2 million -- both of which were worse than analysts' estimates. CALM said its sales were hurt by lower prices from conventional eggs, with CEO Dolph Baker citing "very challenging market conditions that prevailed throughout the summer." The stock is down 11% at $40.44, at last check, eyeing its biggest one-day percentage drop since September 2015. 

Options bears have taken notice today, with 2,639 puts across the tape so far -- eight times what is typically seen at this point -- compared to only 799 calls. The weekly 10/4 38-strike put is the most popular, where new positions are being initiated. However, the bid-ask spread is currently too wide to tell if these puts are being bought or sold.

Published on Oct 1, 2019 at 9:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

One of the better stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) this morning is ADT Inc (NYSE:ADT), up 3.8% to trade at $6.51. This is after the home security specialist said it's selling its Canadian operations to telecom operator Telus Corp for $527.55 million. The deal is expected to be closed in the fourth quarter.

Today's breakout has ADT stock on track to topple its 200-day moving average on a closing basis for just the second time since early March. Since an Aug. 14 record bottom at $4.25, the shares have tacked on 53%, thanks to a huge 31.7% September gain.

A short squeeze is in play and could power additional gains. Shorts have begun tapering off, with short interest increasing by only 0.7% in the most recent reporting period. Nevertheless, short interest still accounts for 42.2% of ADT's total available float, and would take shorts 23.5 days to cover, at the stock's average pace of trading.

There's also pessimism to be unwound in the options pits. Amid relatively low absolute volume, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), ADT stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.29 ranks in the 87th annual percentile, meaning puts have been bought to open relative to calls at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Published on Oct 1, 2019 at 9:47 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

B. Riley FBR cut its Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE:CLF) price target to $13 from $16, with the analyst in coverage citing an "evolving macro and price environment" for the mining company, pointing specifically to a sharp decline in Atlantic pellet premium. Nevertheless, the firm maintained its "buy" rating on CLF, with the analyst saying the stock is attractive, and has the potential for "substantial upside."

Most analysts are bullish on CLF stock, with four of seven in coverage maintaining a "strong buy" rating, and not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $10.20 is a 41.3% premium to last night's close at $7.22.

It looks as if options traders share in this optimism. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), CLF's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 17.38 ranks in the 100th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at an accelerated clip.

The October 10 call, in particular, has been a popular target among call buyers in recent weeks, but given its out-of-the-money status, it's possible shorts are using the options to hedge against any upside risk. There are currently 99.2 million CLF shares sold short, which accounts for more than 37% of the stock's available float.

Looking at the charts, CLF hit its most recent high of $11.61 in mid-July, before spiraling down to an 18-month low of $6.64 on Sept. 3. The shares rebound off this low was rejected near $8.50 -- a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this sell-off -- which sent them on their next leg lower. Today, Cleveland-Cliffs stock is slightly higher, up 0.6% at $7.25.

Published on Oct 1, 2019 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

Geron Corporation (NASDAQ:GERN) stock is soaring this morning, following an announcement that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted fast track status to the biotech's experimental therapy, imetelstat, used to treat patients with myelofibrosis (MF) -- a type of blood cancer. The firm plans to meet with the FDA by the end of the first quarter of 2020 to determine a regulatory path for the drug in cases of relapsed MF. In response, the penny stock is up 10.7% at $1.47 -- set for its biggest one-day pop since Feb. 4. 

Now, GERN is trading back above its 200-day moving average, which kept a lid on the shares in late August and early September, before the stock broke out to a three-month high of $1.65. A pullback from here found support in the $1.30 area, with the equity now boasting a 47% year-to-date gain. 

While the stock is still a ways away from closing the massive bear gap it suffered in September of last year, analysts have been extremely bullish. Currently, five call GERN a "buy" or better. Plus, the consensus 12-month target price sits all the way up at $3.90 -- a region the equity hasn't explored since gapping lower. 

While short interest has dropped roughly 12% since its July peak, short sellers still have a firm grip on 22.2% of the stock's available float. What's more, its would take over 30 days to buy back the 41.61 shares still sold short at GERN's average pace of trading. This could create short-term tailwinds for the shares, should even more of these pessimistic positions begin to unwind.

Published on Oct 1, 2019 at 10:07 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW) is trading up 2.4% at $155.56, thanks to bullish analyst attention. Wells Fargo this morning upgraded its opinion on the software name to "outperform" and boosted its price target by $40 to $180. This price level served as a ceiling for the shares from June through early August, and represents 20% upside to last night's close of $150.06.

Today's price action has VMW stock back above its 50-day moving average for the first time since Aug. 2, though the equity's May peak of $206.80 is still far away. Meanwhile, data from the major options exchanges shows that traders were betting bearishly on VMware before today.

That is, the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 1.33, which not only shows long puts outpacing long calls in the past two weeks, but that reading ranks in the top quartile of its annual range. In other words, this level of put buying compared to call buying is rather rare. Still, peak front-month open interest sits at the October 160 call.

But turning back to analysts, most have remained bullish on VMW, despite the bearish attention it received following the August M&A moves. Thirteen of the 21 covering brokerage firms recommend buying the stock, while the average 12-month price target is up at $174.

Published on Oct 1, 2019 at 1:41 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

The U.S. stock market is selling off today after dismal manufacturing data. Among individual names making notable moves are broker TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:AMTD), steelmaker United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), and chip stock Xilinx, Inc. (NASDAQ:XLNX). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of AMTD, X, and XLNX.

TD Ameritrade Stock Sinks on Charles Schwab Commission News

TD Ameritrade is trading near the bottom of the Nasdaq, after sector peer Charles Schwab (SCHW) said it is removing commissions for stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and options listed on U.S. and Canadian exchanges. After hitting a two-year low of $35.60 earlier, AMTD stock was last seen down 23.4% at $35.76, pacing toward its worst day since Jan. 25, 2006, when it plummeted 25.8%.

AMTD options volume is running quick, too, with around 32,000 calls and 29,000 puts on the tape so far -- 48 times what's typically seen, and a new annual high. One trader may be lowering the bar by rolling their bearish bet down and out, selling to close the now in-the-money weekly 10/11 43.50-strike puts, and buying to open the October 35 puts.

Big River Steel Stake Boosts X Stock

U.S. Steel stock is up 4.9% at $12.12, after the company said it is taking a 49.9% stake in Arkansas-based flex mill operator Big River Steel for $700 million. Today's pop is being contained by X's 50-day moving average, while just above here is the equity's 80-day moving average, which has helped usher the shares to a 60% year-over-year deficit.

X's options volume is accelerated today, with 65,000 calls and 54,000 puts traded, doubling the steel stock's average daily volume. One option bear may be adjusting their position, possibly closing out their long November 10 puts, and rolling them up to the 11 strike.

Xilinx Downgraded on U.S.-China Trade War Risk

KeyBanc downgraded Xilinx to "sector weight" from "overweight," saying overall chip demand remains weak, and projecting headwinds from the U.S.-China trade war. In reaction, XLNX stock is 4.3% lower at $91.74, headed for its lowest close since late January.

The chip shares have been sliding since their most recent peak at $133 on July 24, and gapped below their 320-day moving average late last month on news of a C-suite shake-up. Options traders have been betting on bigger losses, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.65 ranks in the 100th annual percentile, meaning puts have been bought to open over calls at an accelerated clip.

Published on Oct 2, 2019 at 9:51 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Monster Beverage Corp (NASDAQ:MNST) are lower this morning, after Guggenheim cut its rating to "neutral" from "buy." The analyst in coverage also slashed their price target to $60 from $74, and noted that they see Coca-Cola's (KO) foray into the energy drink business as a big headwind. 

At last check, Monster Beverage stock was down 2.5% to trade at $54.99, on track for its lowest close since mid-April. Since an early-August bear gap, MNST has spent the past two months consolidating between the $56-$60 levels, with its 160-day moving average looming just above. 

Options traders have targeted puts in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MNST's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.79 ranks in the 81st annual percentile, meaning puts have been bought to open relative to calls at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Those traders may be on to something, as now looks to be an attractive time to jump on the security with options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 28% registers in the low 19th percentile of its annual range, meaning near-term options premiums are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations.

Plus, the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 89 (out of 100) shows Monster Beverage stock's strong tendency to make bigger-than-expected moves during the past year, relative to what the options market was pricing in.

Published on Oct 2, 2019 at 9:59 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Bernstein downgraded Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATVI) to "underperform" from "market perform," saying, "the market is paying too much on the hope that this is the trough." The brokerage firm went on to say that it "cannot reconcile the current stock price with ATVI's risk-adjusted fundamentals," but raised its price target on the video game stock to $43 from $41 following its recent run higher.

In reaction, Activision Blizzard stock has swung 2.2% lower to trade at $51.80, but is still up almost 24% since its late-May lows south of $42. Longer term, ATVI shares are up roughly 10% year-to-date.

The majority of analysts remain upbeat toward ATVI. Prior to today, 20 brokerages maintained a "buy" or better rating, compared to six that called the stock a "hold." However, the average 12-month price target of $57.03 is a tame 7.8% premium to last night's close.

Options traders are bullish, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), ATVI stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 11.30 ranks in the 100th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at an accelerated clip.

The weekly 10/11 55-strike call has seen the biggest increase in open interest over this two-week time frame, with nearly 13,000 contracts added. Data from Trade-Alert points to mostly buy-to-open activity at the weekly option, meaning traders are betting on a breakout above $55 by the close next Friday, Oct. 11.

Published on Oct 2, 2019 at 10:02 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The shares of Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:NEPT) are surging after the health and wellness company announced a strategic collaboration with International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) to co-develop hemp-derived CBD products for the U.S. market. While the stock initially jumped on the news, it was last seen down 3.3% at $3.46.

NEPT stock is has been sliding since its late-July peak at $6.57, with its 10-day moving average most recently guiding the shares lower. Plus, the security breached its 200-day moving average in late September, a trendling that kept a lid on the shares in March and early April.

While there are only two analysts covering the security, both are extremely bullish, calling NEPT a "buy" or better. What's more, the consensus 12-month price target of $7.15 hasn't been touched since 2007, and is almost doubles current levels. 

Short sellers, on the other hand, have been piling up their bearish bets. Short interest rose 10.9% in the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for 8.1% of the stock's available float. Continued short selling could create even bigger headwinds for NEPT.

Published on Oct 2, 2019 at 10:08 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (NYSE:LYV) looks like it could be ready to bounce on the charts. After hitting an all-time high of $73.72 on July 26, the shares have gradually pulled back slightly to test the 160-day moving average, as well as a trendline connecting its lows from June and February -- hinting at potential chart support. Analysts at Jefferies certainly see more upside ahead for the stock, which is already up 34.5% in 2019, last seen at $65.83.

Specifically, the brokerage firm began coverage this morning with a "buy" rating and $84 price target, representing nearly 27% upside to yesterday's close of $66.24. This move puts Jefferies in line with most other Wall Street firms, with eight of the 13 covering brokerages handing out "strong buy" recommendations.

In the options pits, there's been interesting call activity in recent weeks. The April 2020 70-strike call has seen the largest increase in open interest during the past 10 days, making this position home to peak open interest for LYV. Data from the major exchanges confirms buy-to-open activity here, meaning speculators are betting on the shares breaking out above $70 in the months ahead.

Short interest remains high on Live Nation, so clearly many are still betting against the equity. As it stands now, short interest accounts for 7.5% of the float, and going by average daily trading volumes, it would take short sellers more than two weeks to coverage. As such, there's potential that short-covering tailwinds could help Live Nation shares.

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