Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 2:14 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

M&A news has hit the Street in a flurry today, and earlier, eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) took out the $60 mark for the first time ever -- topping out at $60.74 -- on news its PayPal division has thrown its hat into the cybersecurity ring. Specifically, PayPal has purchased Israeli-based cybersecurity startup CyActive. In EBAY's options pits, meanwhile, speculators are rolling the dice on the stock surging to even higher highs over the next two months.

Diving deeper, buy-to-open activity has been detected at EBAY's May 65 call, easily the equity's most active option thus far. By purchasing the calls to open, speculators are echoing Baird's recent outlook, and are gambling on EBAY to topple the $65 mark -- a feat yet to be accomplished -- by the close on Friday, May 15, when the options expire. Delta on the call is docked at 0.27, suggesting a roughly 1-in-4 shot the option will be in the money at expiration.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals options traders have been scooping up puts over calls at an accelerated clip in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), EBAY's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.69 ranks in the 86th annual percentile.

Technically speaking, EBAY has been in rally mode since taking a sharp bounce off its 200-day moving average in early February -- up 15.4% to trade at $60.65. A continued rise may shake some of the weaker bearish hands loose, which could create an additional burst of buying power for eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY).

Daily Chart of EBAY Since January 2015 With 200-Day Moving Average
Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 1:39 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
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Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) is off 1.4% today to linger near $42.83, but options traders are keeping the faith. At last check, calls had a roughly 8,000-contract lead over puts, and per the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility -- which is up 5.6% to 27.9% -- short-term contracts are in high demand.

Drilling down, YHOO's weekly 3/13 44-strike call has received the most attention, and it appears some of the activity is of the buy-to-open kind. By initiating the long calls, traders are betting on YHOO to climb north of $44 by week's end, when the series expires. The options market isn't too confident of an in-the-money finish, as delta on the call is docked at a slim 0.21.

From a wider sentiment perspective, options traders have shown a preference for near-the-money calls among options slated to expire in the next three months, as evidenced by YHOO's gamma-weighted Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.83. In the near term, this could create some headaches for YHOO in the $44 -$45 region, as peak call open interest in the weekly 3/13 series can be found at the 44 strike, while a lofty amount of call open interest in the March-dated series is located at the 45 strike. Heavy accumulations of call open interest such as these can create headwinds for a stock, as the hedges related to the bets unwind ahead of expiration.

Daily Chart of YHOO Since January 2015

On the fundamental front, YHOO's board of directors received a letter from Starboard Value LP -- which owns a roughly 0.8% stake in Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) -- saying that the company needs to explore avenues for creating value for shareholders, including a possible $4 billion buyback. Specifically, the activist investor said that while YHOO's spinoff of its Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) stake was a "good first step," it is still "in need of a major overhaul."

Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 1:38 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

500.com Ltd (NYSE:WBAI) is sitting on a nearly 11% deficit this afternoon -- bucking the broad-market trend higher -- and at last check, was hovering near $12.96. Meanwhile, with the Chinese lottery stock on the short-sale restricted list, put volume has spiked to triple its expected intraday rate -- as speculators seek alternative avenues to place bearish bets.

Looking more closely at the action, the March 10 put is seeing considerably more volume than any other WBAI strike. By the numbers, more than 5,500 contracts have changed hands at the out-of-the-money put, whereas the next most active option has seen fewer than 900 contracts cross the tape. By initiating these long positions, the buyers anticipate the equity will breach the round-number $10 level by the close next Friday, when front-month options expire.

Turning to the charts, it's been a disastrous year for WBAI. Over the last 12 months, the shares have plunged 72.5%. In fact, the stock touched a record low of $7.31 just one week ago, following news of online sales suspensions at sports lottery administration centers.

With 500.com Ltd (NYSE:WBAI) exhibiting downside momentum, short sellers have been piling on. During the two most recent reporting periods, short interest shot nearly 18% higher, and now makes up 22.6% of the security's float. At WBAI's typical trading volume, it would take more than a week to cover these bearish bets.

Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 12:19 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Since the start of the year, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) has added over 30%, thanks to an earnings-induced bull gap on Jan. 21. Today, though, the shares are lower, dropping 1.9% to hit $445.53. In NFLX's options pits, overall option volume is accelerated, as traders place bets on both sides of the aisle.

The most popular contract overall is the weekly 3/13 460-strike call, which it appears as if some traders are buying to open. These speculators are looking for NFLX to rebound from today's losses and eclipse $460 by the close on Friday, when the options expire. Other traders aren't as hopeful toward the shares, with buy-to-open activity detected at the in-the-money weekly 3/13 450-strike put, as traders look to profit on a move further below $450.

Call buying has dominated NFLX's options pits in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.07 is only 8 percentage points from an annual extreme.

Elsewhere, sentiment is more mixed. Currently, 14 covering analysts rate Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) a "buy" or better, while another 14 call it a "hold" or worse. Meanwhile, its average 12-month price target comes in at $445.51 -- roughly in line with present trading levels.

Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 12:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

The shares of First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) shot to $61.99 around 10 a.m. ET, amid reports of unsubstantiated chatter that the company could be taken private, but have since trimmed their lead to 0.1% to sit at $60.69. (Merger Mania is also sweeping other parts of Wall Street.) Meanwhile, FSLR calls are flying off the shelves at twice the average intraday clip, as speculators gamble on a short-term bounce for the alternative energy issue.

5-Minute Chart of FSLR since March 6

Calls have outnumbered puts by a margin of more than 11-to-1 thus far, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility popped 4.5% to 42.2%, highlighting the rush to near-term options. In fact, weekly calls expiring at Friday's close account for the five most active options.

Digging deeper, it looks like bulls are buying to open the weekly 3/13 60.50- and 61.50-strike calls, which will be in the money if FSLR finishes the week atop the respective strikes. This preference for short-term calls marks a change of pace for FSLR, though, as the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.96 sits just 4 percentage points from an annual high. In other words, near-term traders have rarely been more put-heavy.

Technically speaking, First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) has added roughly 36% in 2015, largely thanks to a post-earnings bull gap in late February. As such, the equity's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 76 -- in overbought territory.

Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 11:16 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Whiting Petroleum Corp (NYSE:WLL) is 12.6% higher today at $38.32, after the company announced it will be searching for a possible buyer, continuing the M&A trend for today. Speculators are wasting little time, as overall options volume is running at 10 times the normal intraday pace. Puts, specifically, are in high demand, with the March 37 strike by far today's most popular contract. It appears some traders are buying to open the puts, in hopes of WLL breaching $37 by the close on Friday, March 20, when front-month options expire.

The preference for puts is just more of the same for WLL speculators, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio across these exchanges is 1.05, higher than 91% of all readings from the past year.

Analysts, though, are believers of the shares. Seventeen out of 23 covering brokerage firms say WLL is a "buy" or better. Also, the stock saw its price target raised at Barclays to $32 from $27 just this morning.

From a long-term perspective, Whiting Petroleum Corp (NYSE:WLL) has struggled mightily. On Aug. 29, the security touched an all-time high of $92.92, yet since then, has given back almost 59%.

Daily chart WLL Since August 2014
Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 10:53 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Call players have set their sights on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) in recent months, as evidenced by the equity's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio of 1.78. Echoing this is BABA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.76, which suggests call open interest outweighs put open interest among options set to expire in three months or less.

Today, calls are trading at a 1.2 times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and are outpacing puts by a more than 2-to-1 margin. Most active is BABA's March 84 call, with all signs suggesting new positions are being purchased. By buying to open the calls, speculators are gambling on a move north of $84 by next Friday's close, when front-month options expire.

What's surprising is that this amount of optimism is levied toward a stock that's surrendered 30.3% since topping out at a record peak of $120 in mid-November. Pressuring the shares lower has been their 20-day moving average -- a trendline that showed its strength last week when it swiftly rejected BABA's rally attempts. The equity is extending this downward trajectory today, off 0.9% at $83.69, after Credit Suisse shaved its price target by $1 to $112 (but maintained an "outperform" rating).

Daily Chart of BABA Since November 2014 With 20-Day Moving Average

On the fundamental front, all eyes will be on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) next Wednesday, March 18, when the Big Board freshman's lock-up period expires. Meanwhile, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO) -- one of BABA's biggest pre-IPO stakeholders -- is garnering some attention today, after Starboard Value LP sent a letter encouraging the company to continue to create value for shareholders. In late January, YHOO announced it would spin off its BABA stake into a separate investment company. YHOO is down 0.8% at last check.

Published on Mar 9, 2015 at 10:35 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is up 1% out of the gate to wink at $2.95, and options traders are responding. At last check, calls were crossing at more than triple the expected intraday rate, and the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility is 2.6% higher at 49.1% -- suggesting elevated demand for short-term strikes.

Along those lines, AMD's most active option by a mile is the at-the-money March 3 call, which is seeing buy-to-open activity. This includes a sweep of 3,780 contracts, initiated at a premium of 8 cents each -- for a total cash outlay of more than $30,000 (premium paid * number of contracts * 100 shares per contract). In short, this speculator expects the stock will topple $3 by next Friday's closing bell, when the front-month options expire.

Today's preference for long calls over puts represents a change of pace for AMD. Over the last 50 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has seen more than two puts bought to open for every call. The resultant put/call volume ratio of 2.35 ranks in the 85th percentile of its annual range.

On a similar note, AMD's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.39 sits just 3 percentage points from a 12-month high. In other words, put open interest outweighs call open interest by a near-extreme 52-week margin, among contracts expiring in the next three months.

This skepticism is mildly surprising, considering Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has advanced 10.5% on a year-to-date basis. However, the shares spent most of February struggling in the $3-$3.20 range, and have started March on a downtrend -- giving back 5.1%.

Published on Mar 6, 2015 at 2:55 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

Cliffs Natural Resources Inc (NYSE:CLF) has plunged 5.7% this afternoon to churn near $6.26 -- as fear over an impending interest-rate hike sparks a sell-off in mining and precious metal names. Against this backdrop, CLF puts are crossing at a rate 1.4 times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and are outpacing calls by a 2-to-1 margin.

Drilling down, CLF's weekly 3/6 6.50-strike put is being bought to open, as traders bet on the stock to extend its decline south of the strike through tonight's close, when the series expires. Meanwhile, new positions are also being purchased at the equity's weekly 3/13 6.50- and weekly 3/27 6-strike puts.

Heading into today's session, speculators at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) had shown a distinct preference for calls over puts in recent months. Specifically, CLF's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.87 across these exchanges ranks higher than all other similar readings taken in the past year, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at an annual-high clip.

Looking at the charts reveals today's skeptical stance among options traders more closely aligns to the equity's longer-term technical backdrop. On a year-over-year basis, the shares have surrendered roughly two-thirds of their value. Considering almost half of Cliffs Natural Resources Inc's (NYSE:CLF) float is sold short, a portion of the recent call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- could be a result of short sellers hedging against any unexpected upside.

Published on Mar 6, 2015 at 2:44 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

YY Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:YY) is 6.7% higher today to $58.85, thanks to a well-received earnings report. Nevertheless, bearish activity in the options pits is ramping up, with some traders skeptical of the company's post-earnings upside.

YY options are moving at six times the usual intraday pace today, with the April 60 put (today's most active contract) seeing buy-to-open activity. By purchasing this put, traders expect the security to dip below the strike price by the close on April 17, when the contract expires. Delta on the April 60 put reads at negative 0.49, implying a 49% chance of expiring in the money. Just yesterday, delta stood at negative 0.65.

Looking back, put buying has accelerated over the last two weeks, as YY came dangerously close to annual-low territory. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.84 stands just 9 percentage points away from an annual bearish peak. Meanwhile, short interest accounts for over 15% of YY Inc's (NASDAQ:YY) available float, which would take nearly five sessions to cover, at average daily trading volumes.

Daily Chart of YY Since September 2014
Published on Mar 6, 2015 at 2:26 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (NYSE:AMTD) is following its sector peers higher this afternoon, up 3.1% at $37.78 on this morning's jobs report, which has amplified expectations for a Fed rate hike. Earlier, in fact, the stock touched a nearly 16-year high of $38.74. Not surprisingly, options traders have taken notice of the uptrend -- and are rolling the dice on higher highs.

By the numbers, more than 5,400 AMTD calls are on the tape -- 13 times the expected intraday amount, and five times the number of puts exchanged so far. Per data from Trade-Alert, speculators are buying to open April 39, May 40, and August 39 calls. In other words, these bulls are confident that AMTD will reach new decade-plus levels by the respective expiration dates.

Today's call buying is just more of the same when it comes to outperforming AMTD. During the last 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock has racked up a call/put volume ratio of 2.20. Not only does this indicate calls have been bought to open at more than twice the rate of puts, but the ratio also ranks in the 94th percentile of its annual range.

Meanwhile, TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (NYSE:AMTD) could have more gas in the tank, should short sellers hit the exits. Although short interest declined by 46.9% during the past two reporting periods, these bearish bets still account for more than 10 million AMTD shares. At the stock's average pace of trading, it would take close to a week to repurchase these pessimistic positions -- ample fuel for a short squeeze.

Monthly Chart of AMTD since July 1999

Published on Mar 6, 2015 at 2:00 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • General

This morning's strong payrolls report is drilling the metals sector, and mining magnate Vale SA (ADR) (NYSE:VALE) is no exception. The stock is down 1.1% this afternoon at $6.46, after earlier tumbling to a fresh 10-year low of $6.23. In the options pits, a number of traders think there's more room to fall, and are targeting a quick move south of $6.

Specifically, VALE's weekly 3/13 and April 6 strikes are the two most active puts thus far, and it appears there could be some buy-to-open activity occurring at both. For those initiating new long positions, the goal is for the equity to breach the $6 mark -- territory not explored since December 2004 -- by the respective expiration dates.

From a wider sentiment perspective, put buying has been popular in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), VALE's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.29 ranks in the 88th annual percentile. Simply stated, puts have been bought to open over calls with more rapidity just 12% of the time within the past year.

Echoing this is the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.44, which rests higher than 87% of similar readings taken in the last 12 months. In other words, short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual toward VALE.

Technically speaking, today's negative price action just highlights the equity's withstanding technical troubles. Over the past 52 weeks, in fact, Vale SA (NYSE:VALE) has surrendered roughly half of its value. More recently, the equity has lagged the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 20 percentage points over the past 60 sessions.

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