Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Sep 7, 2018 at 12:56 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

Shares of GoDaddy Inc. (NYSE:GDDY) are up 2% at $81.02 in afternoon trading, continuing their long-term uptrend. GoDaddy stock has been climbing the charts since its April 2015 public trading debut, ushered higher by its 40-day moving average. After notching a record peak of $82.05 this past Tuesday, Sept. 4, GDDY pulled back near this key trendline -- suggesting now may be the time to bet on the security's next leg higher.

Daily Chart of GDDY with 40MA

Specifically, GoDaddy stock is now within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average. Over the past three years, there have been 13 prior instances of GDDY pulling back to this trendline after closing north of it at least 60% of the time during the previous two months and in eight of the last 10 trading days. Those prior pullbacks have resulted in an average one-month return of 6.43% for GDDY, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, with 85% of those returns positive.

There's plenty of skepticism to be unwound, too. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows the equity with a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.35, which ranks in the 76th percentile of its annual range. This means that puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-usual clip during the past 10 weeks.

Plus, short interest rose 7% during the most recent reporting period on GDDY, and now represents 5% of the stock's total available float. At the equity's average daily trading volume, it would take almost three days for shorts to cover these bets. A capitulation from some of the weaker bearish hands both in and out of the options arena could create tailwinds for the shares.

Bulls may want to consider using options to bet on near-term upside for GoDaddy stock. This is based on the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 27%, which sits just 18 percentage points from an annual bottom indicating low volatility expectations are being priced into short-term contracts.

Published on Sep 10, 2018 at 8:27 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Monday Morning Outlook

From a short-term perspective, we are now past one of the more lucrative time periods for bulls during the rate-tightening cycle that began in December 2015. Prior to Aug. 1, in instances when the Fed did not tighten at a scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and a retail survey showed pessimism ahead of the inaction, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY - 287.60) had an 83% chance of advancing in the following month, or 20 trading days, with an average gain of 2.4%.

On Aug. 1, the Fed did not raise rates coincident with a sentiment survey showing pessimism among retail investors. Exactly 20 days later, on Aug. 29, the SPY closed at its most recent all-time closing high, 3.8% above its Aug. 1 close -- rallying as expected, but also rallying significantly more than expected.

"BlackRock's Fink Sees U.S. Slowdown, 10-15% Market Drop in Tariff War"
-- Bloomberg, July 16, 2018

"Stocks vulnerable to 5-10 percent pullback, Invesco's top market watcher warns"
-- CNBC, September 4, 2018

"Goldman Sachs Joins Citigroup in Flashing Warnings on S&P 500"
-- Bloomberg, September 5, 2018

"UBS Sees S&P 500 Dropping 5% Should Trump Levy 25% China Tariffs"
-- Bloomberg, September 6, 2018

"Markets dropping in recent trade; President Trump speaking to reporters says that that another tranche of $267 bln in China tariffs are ready to go following the $200 bln China tariff tranche"
"President Trump speaking to reporters on Air Force One says that trade talks with Canada are moving along pretty well and he is working on trade deal with Japan"
-- Briefing.com midday headlines, September 7

Now, we are less than three weeks away from the next scheduled FOMC meeting, on Sept. 26. And last week, we saw sellers take away some of the gains that were beyond what was expected one month after the Fed paused on rates. Not only is the excitement of the early August Fed pause over, but the height of earnings season is behind us, and market participants are now more likely to trade off macro headlines -- most notably, headlines regarding trade negotiations.

With many strategists sounding the cautionary alarm these past few weeks -- and particularly last week -- the Friday afternoon trade reports unsurprisingly generated a quick sell-off, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 2,871.68) losing 15 points, or 0.5%, in the first 30 minutes after the headlines surfaced. But the index immediately steadied around its January 2018 closing high in the 2,870 area.

The sell reaction was not a huge surprise, but the magnitude of the selling may have surprised some, most notably those among the strategist crowd warning of a correction if more tariffs are implemented. Then again, as I have said before, investors in Chinese stocks should worry about negative U.S.-China trade negotiations more so than U.S. investors, judging by the way the Chinese market has performed since early 2018 relative to U.S. stocks. And perhaps the initial reaction of additional China tariffs being readied was muted by follow-up headlines regarding trade negotiations with Japan and Canada, and/or these headlines amounting to nothing more than words (for now).

From a technical perspective I am seeing cross-currents that might suggest range-bound trading into the end of the month. For example, the SPX rallied above the 2,900-century mark in late August, but the breakout was short-lived and a pullback has since pushed the index back below this level. But as I said earlier, the SPX appeared to be finding support around its January 2018 high in the immediate aftermath of Friday's trade headlines, suggesting a bounce could be imminent following the weakness that occurred in the first week of September.

Likewise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI - 25,916.54) briefly moved back above 26,000 in late August, but has since retreated back below this round-number mark. Moreover, the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC - 7,902.54) experienced a short-lived move through 8,000, only to be turned back below this round-number millennium mark last week. This index is now sitting just above 7,900 -- a century mark that could be supportive, as a trendline connecting the June, July, and August lows is sitting here, too.

"...after three months of struggling with 1,700 and making a series of lower highs in that time frame, the RUT broke out above a trendline situated 20 points below 1,700, and took out the 1,700 level shortly thereafter. If the price behavior continues to mirror that of the first half of 2018, the RUT rally will continue on into the late-September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting... after toying with the 2,000 millennium mark since January, the MID managed to close above this level for seven consecutive days, carving out a new all-time closing high in the process."
-- Monday Morning Outlook, August 27, 2018

As the benchmarks mentioned above were cresting in late August, so too were the S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID - 2,027.25) and Russell 2000 Index (RUT - 1,713.18), which were trading significantly above key round number areas. They, too, have retreated from their late-August highs, but remain above 2,000 and 1,700, respectively. In the absence of significant macro catalysts, I would expect these support levels to hold in the coming days. The MID, for what it's worth, has a similar trendline sitting just above the 2,000 level, which coincidentally is the site of its January high.

rut 30-day moving average

I found it interesting that one reason for Citigroup strategists' warning of a correction is that they feel there is too much optimism. Admittedly, surveys are showing optimism creeping into the market, with Investors Intelligence (II) reporting that the number of bullish newsletter advisors is at 60% -- the highest since January. Retail investors have also become more bullish relative to early August, just ahead of the Fed's pause. In early August, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) poll showed the bearish percentage outweighing the bullish percentage by 13 points, but in the most current reading, the bullish percentage outweighed the bearish percentage by 16 points.

Potentially neutralizing that optimism is the number of cautionary words from strategists, as I excerpted near the beginning of this commentary. But these increasingly optimistic surveys, along with the bearish positioning on Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 14.88) futures by large speculators in the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report, remain risks and support Citi's model.

However, other sentiment measures do not suggest danger is imminent. For example, those trading major exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are showing a preference for technology stocks (deservedly so) and underperforming bonds, more so than broader equity funds such as the SPY, which has registered outflows since the beginning of August (per etf.com data). Finally, the equity-only, buy-to-open put/call volume ratio is still not at levels that are shouting caution in the immediate term.

etf flows since aug 1

buy to open equity put-call ratio sept 7

Look for equities to bounce back in the immediate days or weeks ahead and for the pessimism we saw in early August to further unwind. However, the end of September brings us the next FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to raise rates again. A combination of growing optimism ahead of a Fed rate hike could set us up for a pullback in October.

Continue reading:

Published on Sep 10, 2018 at 11:51 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

Apache Corporation (NYSE:APA) was having a solid summer, but was recently rejected from its July highs near $50. Since then, the oil-and-gas issue has struggled to break out -- but this extended period of consolidation could finally be ready to resolve to the upside, if the stock's meet-up with a historically bullish trendline is any indication.

More specifically, Apache stock is now within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch above it. Over the past three years, there have been four other instances of APA pulling back to its 160-day trendline after trading north of it at least 60% of the time over the previous two months. Those previous pullbacks have resulted in an average one-month return of 9.36%, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst White, with 75% of the returns positive.

Daily Stock Chart APA

Adding to this layer of support is the level that coincides with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the stock's decline from its late-2016 highs at $69 to its March 2018 lows near $33. APA is already showing signs of bouncing from this technical foothold, up nearly 2% to trade at $43.64.

There are other factors that could provide potential tailwinds for the energy name. For one, there is ample room for bullish brokerage notes. Of the 13 brokerages covering APA, nine rate it a "hold" or "sell."

In addition, shorts are starting to head for the exits. After hitting a near-term high of 31.63 million shares on July 1, short interest fell by 3.8% in the two most recent reporting periods. However, a healthy 7.9% of APA's available float remains in the hands of short sellers, which represents more than eight times the security's average daily trading volume. 

In the options pits, APA puts have become more popular lately, as evidenced by data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which shows the security with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.38, a ratio that ranks in the 99th annual percentile. This means Apache puts have been purchased at a near-peak pace relative to calls during the past two weeks. 

Echoing this, the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.20 ranks in the 100th percentile of its annual range. This shows that short-term traders have not been more put-heavy toward the security in the past year. A bounce from APA over the next month could lead to an unwinding of these bearish bets.

For anyone considering speculating on APA with call options, now is a good time to do so. The stock has a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 32%, which ranks in just the 15th annual percentile. This reveals that unusually low volatility expectations are being priced into front-month options for the energy stock.
Published on Sep 10, 2018 at 12:57 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Earnings Preview
  • Analyst Update

Grocery chain Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) is slightly lower in afternoon trading, last seen down 1.6% at $31.85. However, early this morning KR landed a price-target hike to $36 from $33 at Wells Fargo. This comes mere days before the company's second-quarter earnings release, scheduled for before the market opens Thursday, Sept. 13. 

On the charts, Kroger stock has been on a long-term uptrend, specifically seeing a post-earning bull gap in late June, lifting the stock from its March 8 post-earnings bear gap, and paved the way for its fresh annual peak of $32.74 this past Thursday, Sept. 6. From a broader perspective, KR has picked up over 50% during the past 12 months.

Daily Chart of KR Since Jan 2018

Looking at the stock's earnings history, it has closed higher the day after the company reported in four of the past eight quarters, including the aforementioned 9.7% late-June surge. The shares have averaged a 7.9% move the day after earnings over the last two years, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual 11.5% swing for Thursday's trading.

Options traders have been leaning bearish in the long term on Kroger stock. This is per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which shows a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.60, ranking in the 79th annual percentile. In other words, puts have been purchased over calls at a quicker-than-usual clip during the past 10 weeks.

Meanwhile, short interest fell over 14% in the two most recent reporting periods, yet the 41.5 million shares still sold short account for a healthy 5.3% of the available float, or 5.6 times the average daily pace of trading. Continued covering could create bigger tailwinds for Kroger stock.

Lastly, looking toward analyst sentiment, a majority of those covering the equity have moved to the sidelines, with over half sporting tepid "hold" recommendations. Paired with the stock's average 12-month target price carrying a 2.5% downside to current levels, a fresh round of upgrades is seemingly overdue for KR.

Published on Sep 11, 2018 at 11:52 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

Nutanix Inc (NASDAQ:NTNX) is climbing today, up 1.6% to trade at $52.52, after the cloud concern scored a $20 million deal with the U.S. Department of Defense -- the largest in the company's history. Prior to today's rally, NTNX had been pulling back sharply from its late-August highs above $63. However, the stock could now be poised for another leg higher in its longer-term uptrend, if history is any guide.

More specifically, Nutanix stock is fresh off a pullback to within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch trading above this trendline. There has been just one other instance of NTNX pulling back to its 160-day trendline after trading north of it at least 60% of the time over the previous two months. This prior signal resulted in a one-week pop of 5.57%, and a one-month return of 23.88%, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

A move of similar proportion this time around would put Nutanix stock north of $65 one month from now -- a fresh record high. Of course, that's an extremely small sample size of previous 160-day pullbacks to go on, but there's more reasons to believe NTNX's latest trendline bounce has legs to run higher.

Daily Stock Chart NTNX

Short interest has been on the rise, up nearly 15% in the most recent reporting period. These bearish bets now represent a healthy 5.76% of NTNX's total available float, and nearly five times the stock's average daily trading volume. A short squeeze could shake some of the weaker bearish hands loose, providing tailwinds for the equity.

For anyone considering speculating on a NTNX bounce with call options, now is a good time to do so. The stock has a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48%, which ranks in just the 15th annual percentile. This reveals that unusually low volatility expectations are being priced into front-month options for the software stock.

In fact, the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 50.2% registers in the 37th annual percentile, per Trade-Alert. That's a fairly slim premium over the current 30-day historical volatility of 48.9% for Nutanix stock -- a metric that arrives in the 64th percentile of its own 52-week range.

Published on Sep 11, 2018 at 2:19 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

SeaWorld Entertainment Inc (NYSE:SEAS) is down 0.5% at $30.93 in afternoon trading, slightly lower after hitting yesterday's four-year peak of $31.70. Below we will take a look at how the security has been faring on the charts, and why data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White suggests that now may be an ideal time to bet on SEAS' next leg higher. 

SeaWorld stock has been surging higher since late 2017, with the 50-day moving average helping during pullbacks. The entertainment concern has more than doubled its value since January, and more recently enjoyed an impressive post-earnings bull gap on Aug. 6.

Daily Chart of SEAS with 50MA

Switching gears, SeaWorld's short-term options are attractively priced right now. This is per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 39% is in the 8th percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

Per White, there have been two other times since 2008 the security was trading near new highs when its SVI was simultaneously perched in the lower 20th percentile of its 12-month range. After these signals, the shares were higher 100% of the time one month later, and up an average of 23.01%.

Currently, near-term traders are more call-skewed than usual, with the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.48 ranking in the low 2nd annual percentile. In other words, call open interest for options expiring within three months outweighs put open interest by a wider-than-usual margin.

Lastly, short interest fell over 9.6% in the two most recent reporting periods, yet the 12.6 million shares still sold short account for a healthy 24% of the available float, or 2.3 times the average daily pace of trading. In other words, continued covering could create bigger tailwinds for SeaWorld stock.

Published on Sep 11, 2018 at 2:34 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV) have had an uninspiring summer, trading in a choppy sideways range below the $100 level since May. While a recent Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval was unable to move the needle much, now might be a good time to bet on a short-term bounce for the drug stock.

More specifically, AbbVie stock is now within one standard deviation of its 320-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch above it. Over the past three years, there have been three other instances of ABBV pulling back to its 320-day trendline after trading north of it at least 60% of the time over the previous two months. Those three instances resulted in an average one-month return of 4.41%, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst White, with two out of the three returns positive.

Based on its current perch at $93.35 (down 0.5% for the day), another move of this magnitude would put the equity around $97.47 by this time next month -- back above its year-to-date breakeven level. 

Daily Stock Chart ABBV

Amid this latest pullback, a strongly bearish sentiment backdrop could help fuel a stronger-than-usual ABBV bounce. For one, a renewed rally could prompt analysts to rethink their bearish stance, as 10 of the 16 brokerages covering ABBV rate it a "hold" or "strong sell." Any upgrades from this group could draw more buyers to the table.

In addition, shorts have been hitting the exits, with short interest down 25% from its June highs. But at AbbVie's average daily trading volume, it would still take shorts nearly six sessions to cover the remaining bearish bets.

In the options pits, ABBV puts have become more popular lately, as evidenced by data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which shows the security with a 10-day put/call volume ratio in the elevated 93rd annual percentile. This means that AbbVie puts have been purchased at a faster-than-usual clip relative to calls during the past two weeks. An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could add fuel to the stock's fire. 

Those wanting to bet on a bullish repeat of history for ABBV may want to consider a call-buying strategy, considering short-term options on the drug stock are pricing in remarkably low volatility expectations. Its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is 23%, which arrives in the 25th percentile of its annual range.

Furthermore, AbbVie stock has consistently rewarded premium buyers over the past year. This is per the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which is currently docked at an elevated 96 out of a possible 100. This suggests that ABBV has regularly made larger-than-expected moves on the charts, compared to what its options were pricing in.
 
Published on Sep 12, 2018 at 5:10 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indicator of the Week

The stock market has been boring lately, and I have some stats to prove it. Looking at a couple of streaks that highlight this point -- the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has not moved more than 1% in either direction in over 50 trading days, and the 20-day historical volatility (HV) on the index has been in the single digits going on two months now. Below, I show other times in the past where we've seen this, and what happened going forward.

Low Stock Volatility Could Continue

On June 25 -- more than 50 trading days ago -- the S&P 500 was down 1.4%. Since then, there has not been a single day where the index moved by at least a percentage point in either direction. Stocks aren't making big one-day moves. Since 1928, as far back as we have S&P 500 data, there have only been 23 streaks that reached 50 trading days. Remarkably, three of those streaks occurred last year alone.

I was surprised at the table below summarizing S&P 500 returns after these streaks. Low volatility usually goes hand-in-hand with bullish markets. After these signals, however, stocks have tended to struggle. The low volatility continues, as the standard deviation of returns is lower than typical returns since 1951 -- the year of the first signal. But the over the next six months, the index averages a gain of just 1.44%, compared to the typical return of 4.26%. The average return from a week to three months has been negative.

sp500 returns sept 11

Breaking Down Another Low Volatility SPX Streak

The 20-day historical volatility on the S&P 500 has been below 10% for 37 trading days now. This is the 54th time the streak has reached this many days. The table below summarizes the returns after these streaks.

The second table is for comparison, and shows typical returns since 1942 -- the year of the first signal. Nothing jumps out as particularly interesting after these signals. The volatility, as measured by the standard deviation of returns, is a bit lower than usual. That's not surprising, since these signals naturally occur during low-volatility environments. The returns after signals aren't too different from typical returns for the index.

sp500 historical volatility sept 11

It made me curious if a sell signal occurs when the HV finally moves above 10%. The answer is no. In fact, there's some outperformance in the short-term return (one week and a month). After that, the returns are typical. 

 sp500 low volatility streak sept 11

Published on Sep 12, 2018 at 3:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

Shares of Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) -- which will sell live Christmas trees this year -- are slightly lower in afternoon trading, last seen down 0.2% at $1,984. Weighing on the shares is a tech sector swoon, as well as concerns ahead of a Senate committee hearing on consumer data privacy, slated for Sept. 26. Below we will take a look at how AMZN has been faring on the charts, and why now may be a good time to bet on the FAANG stock's next leg higher.

It's no secret that Amazon stock has been a long-term outperformer on the charts, with the stock most recently touching a fresh record high of $2,050.50 on Sept. 4 -- just as it briefly surpassed its $1 trillion market cap. The online powerhouse has roughly doubled over the past 12 months, with recent pullbacks contained by its rising 40-day moving average.

Daily Chart of AMZN with 40MA

In fact, Amazon stock is now within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average. Over the past three years, there have been 14 prior instances of AMZN pulling back to this trendline after closing north of it at least 60% of the time during the previous two months and in eight of the last 10 trading days. Those prior pullbacks have resulted in an average one-month return of 4.92% for AMZN, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, with 71% of those returns positive. A similar pop from current levels would place the FAANG shares around $2,081 -- in record-high territory.

Plus, now seems to be an attractive time for near-term traders to hop onto AMZN with options. This is based on the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 25%, which sits just 24 percentage points from an annual bottom, indicating low volatility expectations are being priced into short-term contracts.

Lastly, Amazon stock has constantly rewarded premium buyers during the past year. This is per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 92 out of 100, which shows the security has tended to make much bigger-than-expected moves on the charts compared to what the options market was expecting.

Published on Sep 13, 2018 at 1:26 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) is down 2.9% at $20.12 in afternoon trading, the stock suffering a notable pullback after yesterday receiving a $1 price-target cut at Wedbush to $23. The stock has been struggling to maintain an consistent uptrend of late, but despite its technical underperformance, now may be the perfect time to jump onto KEY's next leg higher.

KeyCorp stock has been moving mostly sideways this calendar year, currently just pennies away from its year-to-date breakeven mark. However, between late March and late May the bank stock benefited from the support of its 320-day moving averages, and longer term, managed to gain 12% over the past 12 months after bouncing off the supportive 160-day trendline.

Daily Chart of KEY with 160 and 320MA

Digging deeper, KeyCorp stock is now within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average. Over the past three years, there have been four prior instances of KEY pulling back to this trendline after closing north of it at least 60% of the time during the previous two months and in eight of the last 10 trading days. Those prior pullbacks have resulted in an average one-month return of 4.7%, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, with 75% of those returns positive. A bounce of this magnitude would push KeyCorp shares back above $21.

Looking toward options data, KEY's  Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.54 ranks in the 30th percentile of its annual range. This shows that short-term traders have rarely been more call-heavy toward the security in the past year. Further, the October 21 strike saw the largest increases in call open interest during the past two weeks, with more than 1,200 total contracts added.

Lastly, analyst sentiment has been extremely optimistic. Of the 18 firms covering the banking stock, 13 carry "buy" or "strong buy" recommendations. What's more, KeyCorp stock's average 12-month price target of $23.63 comes in at a 17.7% upside to current levels.
Published on Sep 13, 2018 at 2:06 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

The shares of Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc (NASDAQ:CRZO) have been rallying up the charts in recent sessions, as oil prices surged ahead of Hurricane Florence's assault on the U.S. East Coast. However, news that the massive storm has been downgraded to a Category 2 has crude futures reversing course -- and CRZO stock down 1.5% at $23.85, retreating from a key trendline. If history is any guide, the oil name could be headed even lower.

Specifically, from last Friday's close at $22.94 to yesterday's intraday high of $24.70, CRZO stock surged 7.8%. What's more, this brought the shares within one standard deviation of their 40-day moving average. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been six other times in the last three years the equity has rallied so close to this trendline after a lengthy stretch below it -- resulting in an average one-month loss of 4.46%, with 67% of those returns negative.

crzo stock daily chart sept 13

Supporting the short-term bearish case is the fact that CRZO's 40-day trendline currently corresponds to the quarter-century mark, which has contained the stock since an early August bear gap. What's more, this region is near the site of the equity's +20% year-to-date return.

The stock could see additional pressure, should shorts start ramping up their exposure again. Since hitting a near-term peak in early June, short interest has been cut in half to 8.92 million shares. Plus, the energy shares have been unable to capitalize on this steady buying power -- down 4.2% over this time frame -- pointing to underlying weakness.

There's plenty of room for downgrades to spark more selling, too. Of the 15 analysts covering Carrizo Oil & Gas, 11 maintain a "buy" or better rating, with not a single "sell" on the books. Additionally, the average 12-month price target of $33.46 stands at a hefty 40.3% premium to current trading levels.

Published on Sep 14, 2018 at 11:16 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis

The shares of retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY) have struggled over the past year, giving back 38%. Just yesterday the stock was actually one of the worst performers on the Nasdaq, as it fell almost 7%. These struggles could persist, too, based on technical data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

Looking closer, White points out that BBBY stock has historically struggled when it nears its 80-day moving average. If you go back to 2008, there have been 10 other occasions where the shares have moved within one standard deviation of this trendline following a lengthy stretch below it. Following these "signals," the stock has went on to average a one-month loss of 6%, and has moved higher during those time frames just three times.

With Bed Bath & Beyond last seen trading at $17.82, another loss of this magnitude would place it near $16.76. Of course, it's possible much of this downside already occurred in yesterday's session.

bbby stock chart

To be sure, most of Wall Street is already avoiding the struggling retailer, with not one of the 15 covering analysts handing out a "buy" endorsement, compared to five "strong sell" ratings. What's more, short interest accounts for a whopping 22.6% of BBBY's float, or two weeks' worth buying power, based on average daily volumes.

For what it's worth, it would seem these short sellers have been using call options as a hedge. That's because the security's 50-day call/put volume ratio across the
 International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is at an elevated 5.19, ranking just 1 percentage point from an annual high.

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