Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 6, 2018 at 1:51 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity

The shares of Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) are trading down 2.7% today at $8.94, after the high-profile arrest of a Huawei exec casts exacerbates U.S.-China trade tensions. While today's retreat is finding a familiar floor in the $9 neighborhood, one options trader is positioning for an even bigger slide into the new year.

At last check, roughly 75,000 puts had changed hands -- three times what's typically seen, and triple the number of calls on the tape. The January 2019 8-strike call is most active due to what appears to be a 49,467-contract block bought to open for an initial cash outlay of $494,670 (number of contracts * $0.10 premium paid * 100 shares per contract).

This also represents the maximum potential loss, should Ford settle north of $8 at January options expiration. Profit for the put buyer will begin to accumulate on a move below $7.90 (strike less premium paid). Delta on the put is docked on negative 0.22, suggesting a 22% chance the option will be in the money at expiration.

Today's accelerated put volume is nothing new for Ford Motor stock. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), F's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.62 ranks in the 87th annual percentile. While this shows that calls have outnumbered puts on an absolute basis, the rate of put buying relative to call buying has been quicker than usual.

The skepticism is seen elsewhere on Wall Street, too, with eight of 11 analysts maintaining a lukewarm "hold" rating. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $9.89 stands at a tame 10.3% premium to Ford stock's current price.

Looking at the charts, F stock began trending lower from its mid-June top at $12.15, eventually bottoming at a nearly nine-year low of $8.17 on Oct. 24. A quick rally off here was contained in the $9.90-$10.00 region -- a familiar ceiling since late July -- with the shares now testing the site of their late-October pre-bull gap highs as potential support.

ford stock daily chart on dec 6

Published on Dec 6, 2018 at 1:53 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) on Tuesday cut its full-year guidance, citing hurricane costs and potential tariff ramifications. As such, DG shares dropped 6.8% that day -- their worst session since May. However, the security is flashing a trio of historical buy signals, suggesting now may be time to pick up DG on sale.

The equity is back within one standard deviation of its 52-week moving average, after being north of this trendline at least 80% of the time over the past 20 weeks. There have been nine similar retreats to this moving average, after which DG went on to average a one-month gain of nearly 5%, and was higher 78% of the time, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

From a slightly shorter-term perspective, DG is also back within one standard deviation of its 160-day and 200-day moving averages. There have been four similar pullbacks to the 160-day, after which the equity was higher by 5.91%, on average, a month out. Retreats to the 200-day have preceded an even healthier average one-month gain of 9.51%. What's more, Dollar General stock was higher 100% of the time after pullbacks to both trendlines.

The security is now trading around $104.08, fractionally lower on the day. The stock seems to have found support in the $102 region, which also contained a retreat in mid-October, and is in the area of a 10% year-to-date gain for DG. Another 9.51% gain for the retail issue would place it around $114 to start the new year.

DG stock chart dec 6

Meanwhile, Dollar General's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.73 registers in the 92nd percentile of its annual range. This suggests near-term options traders are much more put-heavy than usual right now. Should DG extend its trend of bouncing off technical support, an unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could help propel the security's rebound.

Published on Dec 6, 2018 at 2:00 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

Next week, traders will digest the latest inflation data ahead of the Dec. 19 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement, with the Fed expected to hike interest rates one more time in 2018. In addition, the weekly crude inventories report could merit extra attention, on the heels of this week's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting. Outside of the U.S., Wall Street will watch Britain, with the U.K. parliament set to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.

Earnings season is over, with only a few quarterly reports trickling out. Software name Adobe Systems (ADBE) and big box retailer Costco (COST) will both be throwing their hats into the earnings ring. 

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates. 

The week will begin Monday, Dec. 10, with the the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) and Stitch Fix (SFIX) will both report their quarterly earnings. 

Tuesday, Dec. 11, will be another relatively quiet day for economic data, with only the producer price index (PPI) due out. Across the pond, however, the British parliament's Brexit vote will be in focus. Dave & Busters (PLAY), DSW (DSW), and Francesca's (FRAN) will all reveal their earnings. 

The consumer price index (CPI) is slated for Wednesday, Dec. 12, along with the weekly crude inventories report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), as well as the Treasury budget. Set to report quarterly earnings are Oracle (ORCL), Oxford Industries (OXM), Scholastic Corp (SCHL), Tailored Brands (TLRD), and Vera Bradley (VRA). 

On Thursday, Dec. 13, traders will digest weekly jobless claims, international trade data, and the Fed's balance sheet. Adobe Systems (ADBE), Ciena (CIEN), and Costco (COST) will all step into the earnings confessional. 

The week will close on Friday, Dec. 14, with monthly retail sales, industrial production data, and business inventories. There are no earnings of note scheduled. 

Published on Dec 6, 2018 at 2:42 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Trade Postmortem

Subscribers to our Weekly Options Countdown service recently tripled their money with the United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) weekly 12/7 117-strike put. We'll take a closer look at what initially put UPS stock on our bearish radar, and how the winning options trade unfolded.

When we entered the position on Monday, Dec. 3, the shipping stock had been lagging below its year-to-date breakeven point in recent weeks. Back in late October, the shares gapped lower in the wake of a disappointing quarterly report. While the stock had engaged in a mini-rally since then, there were signs indicating firm resistance was in place.

For one, the rally lost steam near the $115 region, home to a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the stock's September highs and October lows. This area also coincided with the shares' 160-day moving average. There was also options-related resistance in place, thanks to peak open interest at the December 115 strike.

What's more, UPS stock had been a strong performer for premium buyers over the past year, based on its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 96 out of 100. In other words, UPS had shown a tendency to make bigger-than-expected moves during the past 12 months, relative to what its options have priced in.

After our put recommendation, United Parcel Service stock was turned away resistance, and promptly gapped lower. This was aided by an analyst note from Morgan Stanley noting "the market is missing the risk Amazon Air poses" to FedEx and UPS (UPS). UPS stock closed at $106.77 on Tuesday, Dec. 4, allowing our subscribers to lock in a 200% profit in just two days.

Trade PM UPS

 

Published on Dec 6, 2018 at 3:07 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are in the red once again, as a high-profile arrest fuels concerns about U.S.-China trade. In fact, the detainment of Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada -- on America's orders -- has sent shockwaves through the tech sector, weighing on optical components makers like NeoPhotonics Corp (NYSE:NPTN). In addition, Chinese app maker Momo Inc (NASDAQ:MOMO) is dropping after issuing a warning on macro headwinds, while FAANG stock Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is sliding on sector woes and more negative analyst estimates for the iPhone. Here's a closer look at what's moving the shares of NPTN, MOMO, and AAPL.

NPTN Eyes Worst Day in 2 Years After Huawei Arrest

NeoPhotonics stock has gapped 19.1% lower to trade at $6.26, making it the worst stock on the Nasdaq today. The company reportedly garners about half its revenue from Huawei, and the uncertainty surrounding the aforementioned arrest prompted B. Riley to downgrade NPTN to "neutral" from "buy," and slice its price target to $8.25 from $11.

NPTN shares are now pacing for their worst day since November 2016, and are set to close below their 200-day moving average for the first time since July. The security touched an annual high of $9.48 just over a month ago, but has since surrendered more than one-third of its value.

The stock is on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list today, and options premiums are soaring. NPTN's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) was last seen 51.2% higher at 88.7%. However, some bears are exploiting pricey premiums. NeoPhotonics has seen about 4,300 calls change hands -- 35 times the intraday norm -- with sell-to-open activity spotted at the January 2019 7.50-strike call. By writing the calls to open, the sellers expect NPTN to remain south of $7.50 through January options expiration.

Momo Warns on Macro Headwinds

Most Chinese stocks are reeling on the Huawei scandal, and MOMO is no exception. The stock was last seen 15% lower to trade at $26.92, after the company said it expects the macro environment to remain challenging. The security is now exploring territory not charted since February, and has given up half its value since peaking at $54.24 in mid-June. It's set for its worst session since November 2017.

Momo stock, too, is on the SSR list, but option bears are active. So far, about 9,600 puts have crossed the tape -- five times the average intraday pace. It appears some traders are buying to open the December 25 put. Call volume is also accelerated, running at three times the norm, with about 17,000 contracts exchanged thus far.

Prior to today, bullish betting was picking up steam. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows MOMO with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 8.24, in the 94th percentile of its annual range. This reveals a healthier-than-usual appetite for long calls over puts during the past two weeks.

More iPhone Concerns Plague Apple

Concerns about iPhone demand have plagued Apple for some time now, with several suppliers cutting guidance, and a handful of analysts lowering estimates. Rosenblatt Securities was the latest brokerage firm to weigh in, trimming its iPhone production expectations, and noting weaker-than-expected iPad Pro sales. Further, the analysts cut their price target on AAPL stock to $165 from $200, and said the Silicon Valley titan's 2019 earnings estimates are too high. Separately, UBS cut its price target to $210 from $225.

Apple shares were last seen 2.5% lower to trade at $172.35, and earlier fell as low as $170.42. Since hitting an all-time best of $233.47 in early October, the FAANG stock has dropped 26% -- into bear-market territory.

More negative analyst attention could be on the horizon for AAPL. Currently, half of the 28 analysts following the security maintain "buy" or "strong buy" opinions. Likewise, the consensus 12-month price target of $228.43 represents expected upside of about 33% from current levels.

Published on Dec 5, 2018 at 10:26 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

Although the stock market is closed today, things will pick back up tomorrow. Kicking things off bright and early will be Kroger Co (NYSE:KR), set to release its third-quarter report before the market opens Thursday, Dec. 6. Ahead of the event, options traders have been targeting calls, and anticipating another big post-earnings move.

Looking at Kroger's earnings history, the stock has closed lower following five of its last eight quarterly reports, including a 9.9% drop back in September. Overall, the equity has averaged a historical earnings move of 9% within this two-year time frame, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a 9.3% single-session post-earnings move for the security, according to implied earnings deviation data.

On the charts, Kroger stock has been choppy, with its 40-day moving average alternating between support and resistance all year. The shares have currently racked up three straight weekly losses, but still remain 4% above their year-to-date breakeven point -- closing Tuesday at $28.64. 

Daily Stock Chart KR

In the options pits, calls have been popular leading up to earnings. Yesterday, more than 27,000 calls changed hands, 18times the average daily volume and in the 96th percentile of its annual range. Leading the charge was the December 32 call, where new positions were purchased for a volume-weighted average price of $0.38. In this case, breakeven for the call buyers at the close Friday, Dec. 21, is $31.62 (strike less premium paid).

Published on Dec 5, 2018 at 10:37 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

It's been a pretty quiet stretch for Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA) stock, per its 60-day historical volatility of 26.7% -- in the 22nd annual percentile. The options market is bracing for big swing on Friday, after the cosmetics retailer takes its turn in the earnings confessional after the market closes tomorrow, Dec. 5.

Specifically, Trade-Alert currently places ULTA stock's implied earnings deviation of 7.6%. This is more than the 4.7% next-day move the equity has averaged over the last two years. Those post-earnings reactions have been mixed, though the security most recently surged 6.4% after its August report. And only two of those performances were large enough to match or beat what's expected this time around -- a 7.6% pop in March and a 9.1% decline in August 2017.

It appears options traders have been positioning for a downside move. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), ULTA's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.00 ranks in the 74th annual percentile, meaning puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-usual clip.

Skepticism has spiked outside of the options pits, too. Short interest on Ulta Beauty is up more than 76% from its June annual low to 3.14 million shares -- surging 28.5% in the last two reporting periods alone. ULTA stock's ability to rally to new highs in the face of such intense selling pressure speaks to its underlying strength.

In fact, ULTA stock tagged that record high of $322.49 just over two weeks ago on Nov. 19. While the shares have pulled back from this notable peak, they appear to have found a foothold at their 40-day moving average and a trendline connecting a series of higher lows since August. Ulta Beauty shares closed last night at $291.13, up 30.2% in 2018.

ulta stock daily chart dec 5

Published on Dec 5, 2018 at 10:55 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

U.S. stock markets are shuttered for a national day of mourning for President George H.W. Bush, who last week passed away at the age of 94. The last time Wall Street was shut down to honor someone was Jan. 2, 2007, after President Gerald Ford died. So, do these planned, non-holiday respites tend to invigorate stock market bulls, or just the opposite? Here's how the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has performed in the past.

Following the last few days of mourning, the S&P has been lower the next day. After we celebrated Ford 11 years ago, stocks were down 0.12% in the subsequent session, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. After President Ronald Reagan was honored in June 2004, stocks fell almost 1% the next day. And Wall Street suffered mild losses after days of mourning for Presidents Richard Nixon and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1994 and 1973, respectively.

The last time the S&P was higher after a national day of mourning was in December 1972, after we honored President Harry Truman; the next-day gain was nearly 1%. Stocks skyrocketed in November 1963 after Wall Street shuttered to honor assassinated President John F. Kennedy, but it had been pandemonium prior to that, with the S&P dropping nearly 3% in one day on the sad news out of Dallas. And markets were higher after honoring President Franklin D. Roosevelt in April 1945, perhaps as Americans sensed that the end of World War II was near.

The only non-mourning event on the list below was in celebration of the 1969 moon landing by Apollo 11. In fact, 1969 was the only year -- since 1933, at least -- with two outages, with the other coming in March to honor President Dwight D. Eisenhower. We did not include things like Hurricane Sandy and 9/11 on the list, as those were unplanned.

stock days off since 1933

On average, the SPX has been higher the day after a planned, non-holiday day off just 36.4% of the time, since 1933. That's compared to an average anytime win rate of 53.8%. However, the average return is positive -- at 0.25% -- due to the big reactions after the FDR and JFK memorials. That compares to an average anytime one-day return of just 0.03%.

Published on Dec 5, 2018 at 1:04 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Technical Analysis
  • Quantitative Analysis

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) rallied hard off its early April lows near $27, eventually topping out at a three-year high of $47.79 in mid-June. The stock has pulled back sharply since then, and after last Thursday's 4.4% plunge following reports that Fox News was boycotting Twitter, is once again testing its 320-day moving average. This could mark an attractive buying opportunity, considering previous pullbacks to here have had bullish implications.

twitter stock daily chart dec 5

Specifically, in the three other times TWTR has come within one standard deviation of this trendline after a significant stretch above it, the stock has averaged a five-day gain of 5.95%, with two-thirds of those returns positive. Another move of this magnitude would put Twitter shares back near $34.50 by early next week.

Options traders, meanwhile, have been betting on bigger losses for TWTR stock in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.54 ranks in the 85th annual percentile. While this shows calls have outpaced puts on an absolute basis, the high percentile ranking indicates the rate of put buying relative to call buying has been quicker than usual.

There's plenty of pessimism priced into the shares elsewhere on Wall Street. While 20 of the 27 analysts covering Twitter stock maintain a "hold" or worse rating, the average 12-month price target of $34.45 is a slim 5.8% premium to current trading levels.

And while short interest plunged 13.8% in the past two reporting periods, there are still 45.76 million shares sold short. This is well above the early April low of 26.33 million shares, and represents a healthy 6.4% of TWTR stock's available float, or roughly two times the average daily pace of trading.

Published on Dec 5, 2018 at 3:00 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Quantitative Analysis

Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ:CROX) started December off strong, nabbing a seven-year high of $29.80 yesterday. The good times could keep rolling for the shoe retailer, as history suggests CROX shares could be headed even higher in the coming month.

Specifically, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 49% ranks in the 15th percentile of its annual range. This indicates short-term options are cheap, from a volatility perspective. What's more, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the five other times CROX was trading within 2% of a new 52-week high while its SVI was ranked in the bottom 20th percentile of its annual range since 2008, the equity averaged a one-month gain of 8.1%, and was positive all five times.

A move of similar magnitude this time around would have the stock at fresh multi-year highs, and testing the $30 level, based on its Tuesday close at $27.30. Overall, CROX has more than doubled in 2018, with pullbacks contained by its 100-day moving average. Thanks to an earnings-induced bull gap in early November, the equity turned in its best month since August 2009. 

Daily Stock Chart CROX

A short squeeze could keep the wind at CROX's back. Short interest fell by 11.6% in the most recent reporting period to 7.67 million shares, the lowest since June 1. Yet this still represents nearly 12% of the stock's total available float, and more than six days of pent-up buying power, at its average pace of trading.

The retail stock is also starved for analyst attention. Currently only four brokerages cover CROX, three of which rate it a tepid "hold." What's more, the security's consensus 12-month price target of $28.80 is a slim 5.5% premium to current trading levels. Tailwinds could also come come as a result of overdue upgrades and/or price-target hikes. 

Published on Dec 6, 2018 at 9:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
  • Analyst Update

The shares of Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:CNAT) are down a whopping 50% in electronic trading, after the drug developer's mid-stage study of a treatment for fatty liver disease failed to meet its main goals. In response, Stifel downgraded the stock to "hold" from "buy," while slashing its price target to $4 from $10. In addition, three other brokerages chimed in with cuts of their own, including to $10 from $14 at Oppenheimer.

Should today's price action pan out, this would be CNAT's worst single-day loss ever, and the shares will hit a new annual low. Prior to today's drop, the stock had seemingly found support near the $4.20-$4.50 area, home to its post-bull gap level from early April. Conatus shares closed Tuesday at $4.50.

Prior to today, analysts were overwhelmingly bullish. All five of the brokerages in coverage rated CNAT a "strong buy." Furthermore, it's average 12-month price target sits all the way up at $12, territory the security has not traded near since early 2014.

Pessimism has been ramping up in the options pits, though, despite limited absolute volume. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), CNAT stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.33 ranks in the 95th annual percentile. While this shows that more calls than puts have been bought to open on an absolute basis, the rate of put buying relative to call buying has been quicker than usual.

Published on Dec 4, 2018 at 2:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are swimming in red ink today, as bank stocks decline with Treasury yields and Apple (AAPL) falls on re-emerging concerns about demand. In fact, Apple supplier Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRUS) is in the spotlight today, after the company cut its guidance. Meanwhile, concerns about a different FAANG member have FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) shares sinking, while drugmaker Revance Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:RVNC) is bucking the broad-market trend to trade comfortably higher, thanks to upbeat data. Here's a closer look at what's moving the shares of CRUS, FDX, and RVNC.

Cirrus Logic Latest Apple Supplier to Cut Guidance

Cirrus Logic shares fell out of the gate today, after the company cut its third-quarter revenue outlook, citing smartphone weakness. The chipmaker is just the latest Apple supplier to cut guidance, with Lumentum (LITE) and Qorvo (QRVO) slicing their revenue outlooks last month.

CRUS stock is well off its intraday lows, however. The equity has trimmed its deficit to 0.8% to trade at $38.35, at last check. The security gapped lower in mid-November amid reports of iPhone production cuts, and has spent most of the subsequent time stalling beneath resistance in the $39 area.

Recent options buyers are likely cheering, though. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows more than nine Cirrus Logic puts bought to open for every call in the past two weeks. This ratio registers in the 97th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for bearish bets lately. Echoing that, CRUS has seen about 4,700 puts change hands so far today -- 10 times the average intraday pace -- with possible buy-to-open action spotted at the weekly 12/7 38-strike put.

Amazon Air Fears Fuel FDX Stock Decline

FedEx stock is down 7.2% to trade at $213.47 -- set for its worst day since September 2011 -- after Morgan Stanley said "the market is missing the risk Amazon Air poses" to FedEx and UPS (UPS). Specifically, due to FAANG member Amazon's (AMZN) plans to expand its fleet, the brokerage firm expects potential revenue losses to accelerate to 10% by 2025, from 2% currently. As such, Morgan Stanley cut its price target on FDX to $230 from $240.

The security is now down nearly 22% from its mid-January peak of $274.66, putting it in bear-market territory. In fact, FedEx shares have been in a channel of lower highs and lows since that peak, with recent rebound attempts stalling beneath its 80-week moving average.

Nevertheless, there's still plenty of room on the bearish bandwagon. Fifteen analysts maintain "strong buy" endorsements on FDX, with another brokerage firm issuing a "buy" rating. That's compared to just three "holds" and not one "sell." Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $287.59 represents a premium of about 35% to the security's current perch.

Revance Stock Climbs on Drug Trial Data

RVNC stock is among the best of the Nasdaq today, after the company said its long-acting injectable, RT002, successfully reduced frown lines in another late-stage trial. The company also signed a licensing deal for the Botox rival with China's Fosun Pharma, resulting in an upfront payment of $30 million, and the potential for milestone payments and royalties.

Revance Therapeutics shares were last seen 15.1% higher to trade at $23.99. The stock is now set to end above its 60-day moving average for the first time since early August. From a longer-term perspective, however, RVNC has been in a channel of lower highs and lows since trading north of $37 back in early January, and remains nearly 32% lower year-to-date.

A short squeeze could help the security break out of its trading range, though. Short interest represents 8.3% of the equity's total available float, or more than 13 sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at RVNC's average pace of trading.

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