Shares of controversial pizza chain Papa John's International, Inc. (NASDAQ:PZZA) are up 0.7% at $45 in early trading, just days after reports the company has hired financial advisors to help stabilize the chain and repair its public image. Below we will take a look at how PZZA has been faring on the charts, and dive into why now looks to be an ideal time to bet on the stock's next leg lower.

Papa John's stock has been in a channel of lower highs since late 2016, with recent rebound attempts stalling around its 160-day moving average. PZZA stock touched a four-year low of $38.05 on Aug. 8, after the company issued ugly full-year guidance in the wake of racist comments from founder and former CEO John Schnatter. Since then, the shares have attempted a rebound, but a run-up to their 40-day moving average has had bearish implications in the past.

More specifically, Papa John's shares are now within one standard deviation of their 40-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch below this trendline. There have been 10 similar signals of this kind in the past three years, after which PZZA went on to average a one-month loss of 3.77%, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.

Regardless of its fundamental and technical woes, Papa John's stock has seen a surge in call buying in recent weeks. Per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), PZZA sports a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 6.01, ranking in the 91st percentile of its annual range. This elevated ratio suggests calls have been purchased over puts at a much faster-than-usual clip.

Echoing this, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.39 ranking in the 11th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that near-term call open interest outweighs put open interest by a wider-than-usual margin right now.

Meanwhile, short interest on Papa John's stock rose a lofty 23% during the most recent reporting period, and now represents more than 26% of the security's total available float. Some of the recent call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- could be attributable to PZZA shorts seeking an options hedge.

Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:MRVL) is trading up 0.8% today at $20.66, even after Cowen and Company cut its price target to $26 from $29 -- though this still represents expected upside of 26% to current trading levels. Today's positive price action just extends MRVL stock's recent bounce off a key technical level, and history suggests there could be more fuel left in the tank.

Taking a closer look at the charts, MRVL shares more than tripled in value from their January 2016 low of $7.40 to their mid-March 11-year peak of $25.18. Since then, the stock has been chopping between support near $19.50-$20.00 -- a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from last August through November -- and resistance just below $23, and recently bounced off the lower end of this range.

More significantly, this recent floor is also home to MRLV stock's rising 320-day moving average, which has had bullish implications in the past. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, in the two other times since 2015 that Marvell Technology has pulled back to within one standard deviation of this trendline after a lengthy stretch above it, the shares have averaged a one-month gain of 10.8%, and were positive both times. Another move of this magnitude would put the equity back near its recent highs.

Those wanting to bet on a repeat of history for Marvell Technology stock may want to consider doing so with options, which offer several advantages over buying stocks -- including low cost of entry. What's more, MRVL's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 37% ranks in the 19th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are pricing in lower-than-usual volatility expectations at the moment, a boon to potential premium buyers.

Arista Networks Inc (NYSE:ANET) is fresh off an excellent week following news the cloud concern was joining the S&P 500 Index (SPX). However, evidence suggests Friday's bull gap isn't just a flash in the pan, with the tech name recently flashing a potential "buy" signal.

At last check, Arista Networks stock is up 0.5% at $309.71, a chip-shot off Friday's record high of $313.36. Last week was ANET's best week since February 2017, gapping higher on Friday after news of the SPX inclusion. Prior to that burst, the shares had been trading in a tight range, with their 200-day moving average acting as support.

The month of September is nearly upon us, and while that has historically meant a negative return for the S&P 500 Index (SPX), several stocks could buck the broad-market trend. Looking back 10 years, the 25 stocks below have averaged the best monthly gains in September. In a league of its own at the top of the list is cosmetics peddler Ulta Beauty Inc (NASDAQ:ULTA), which is set to report second-quarter earnings after the close on Thursday, Aug. 30.

ULTA stock has ended the month of September higher nine of the past 10 years -- only one of two stocks to boast that record -- per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. What's more, the security has averaged a healthy monthly gain of 14.55% -- more than double the second-highest average return on the list. At last check, ULTA stock was fractionally higher at $240.87. A similar September pop would place the shares around $275.92 -- in new-high territory.

After ULTA's last rejection in the $260 region in mid-July, the shares pulled back to familiar support in the $235 area. This level contained the security's pullback in early July, and represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of Ulta stock's rally from its October lows just below $188 to its May 21 annual high of $261.40. Further, the security's 160-day moving average is ascending into the area, and the region represents a 25% pullback from the equity's all-time high of $314.86 touched in June 2017.

Despite the beauty stock's stellar September record, short-term options traders are much more put-heavy than usual right now. Ulta sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.83, indicating that puts nearly triple calls among options expiring within three months. Further, this ratio is in the 98th percentile of its annual range, indicating near-term traders have rarely been more put-biased in the past year. Should ULTA once again rocket higher next month, an unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could add fuel to the stock's fire.

Clothing retailer Express, Inc. (NYSE:EXPR) is continuing this week's onslaught of retail earnings, as the company is scheduled to unveil its second-quarter report before the market opens this Wednesday, Aug. 29. Today, EXPR is up 4.4% at $10.20, catching a lift from the well-received results of fellow retail stock DSW. And in the wake of tomorrow's pre-open report, speculative players are looking for Express stock to make a bigger-than-average move on the charts.

It's already been a volatile year for EXPR. The stock gapped lower in early January after disappointing holiday sales prompted the retailer to slash its full-year forecast, leading EXPR to bottom out at $6.17 at its Feb. 6 session low. The stock has since marched higher along the support of its 60-day moving average, but EXPR has chopped around its year-to-date breakeven at $10.15.

Looking at the stock's earnings history, EXPR has closed lower the day after the company reported in six of the last eight quarters, including a 25.5% plunge in August 2016. Over the past two years, the shares have moved 13.5% the day after earnings, on average, regardless of direction.

This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual 16.2% move for Wednesday's trading. Based on the equity's current price of $10.20, that implies a post-earnings close ranging from $8.55 on a downside move to $11.85 on an upside move (which would represent a new 52-week high).

Ahead of earnings, short-term traders have been favoring puts on Express stock. This is per the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 3.19, which ranks in the 88th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that speculative options players have been more heavily skewed toward puts over calls on EXPR just 12% of the time during the past year.

Likewise, short interest on EXPR represents a substantial 18% of the stock's total available float, or 12.2 times the stock's average daily volume. So while there appear to be plenty of bears betting on a move lower for Express shares, the stock is well-positioned to capitalize on an unwinding of pessimism in the event of an upside surprise tomorrow morning. That said, today's big pre-event rally is reason for contrarians to proceed with caution.

Labor Day is next week, so U.S. markets are closed on Monday. Barring a pullback over the next couple of days, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) should be up more than 5% on the year heading into the holiday. Historically, this has been good news for the stock market through the rest of the year.

Holiday Checkpoint Could Signal Big Gains Ahead

The S&P 500 has been positive the last nine years in a row from Labor Day through the end of the year. The last time it went lower was the end of 2008, when it fell about 30% in the last three months of the year during the financial crisis.

The table below shows that over the past 20 years, there were nine occasions when the index was up at least 5% heading into Labor Day. In those nine years, the rest of the year was positive every time, with an average gain of 6.95%. The other years were positive just 73% of the time, with an average return of only 1.34% -- and way more volatility, going by the standard deviation of returns.

What to Expect This Week and Next

Looking at the rest of this week, the Friday before the long Labor Day weekend has tended to be slightly more bullish than normal. The last day of this week has averaged a gain of 0.11% (and a median return of 0.27%), with 60% of the returns positive. By and large, though, nothing jumps out as significant.

The next table below focuses on the holiday-shortened week of Labor Day. Tuesday has been positive just half the time -- but when it has been up, it has gone up significantly. Tuesday, therefore, has averaged a notable 0.25% return during the week of Labor Day, compared to the average Tuesday gain of 0.05%, looking back 20 years. The end of Labor Day week has been just the opposite; Thursday and Friday both average a loss, with the average negative return exceeding 1%.

Overall, Labor Day week has been bearish for stocks over the past 20 years. The S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 0.11%, with just half of the returns positive.

Best and Worst Stocks for Labor Day Week

Finally, below are lists of the 25 best and worst S&P 500 stocks during Labor Day week, looking back 10 years. The stocks are sorted first by the percentage of positive returns, and then by average return.

Eyeing the stocks with the best returns, FAANG stock Facebook (FB) tends to have a good week. Looking at the worst stocks during the week, utilities seem to make up a disproportionate number of those stocks.

We recently outlined the best stocks to buy before September, if history is any guide. Two airline names, Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV) and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:DAL) found themselves on the list, and boast attractively priced options, to boot. 

LUV Stock Could Break Past Key Trendline Next Month

Southwest Airlines stock is currently heading toward its fourth straight weekly win. The shares have added 22% since bottoming near the $50 level in late June, guided higher by their ascending 10-day moving average for the past month. Although the equity is still staring up at its year-to-date breakeven level, it boasts a 19% lead in the past 12 months.

The good news is that according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, LUV is one of the best S&P 500 stocks to own in September. LUV stock has ended the month of September higher seven of the past 10 years, and averaged a healthy monthly gain of 5.9%. At last check, Southwest stock was fractionally higher at $61.25. A similar September pop would place the shares above $65, near their year-to-date breakeven level.

What's more, the airline name is also among the best stocks to own ahead of the shortened Labor Day week. According to White, in the past 10 years, LUV boasts an average return of 2.3% during this holiday week, and was positive eight times. 

Those wanting to speculate on LUV stock may want to consider doing so with options. Its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 21% ranks in the 7th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are pricing in lower-than-usual volatility expectations at the moment, a boon to potential premium buyers.

Delta Air Lines Stock Eyeing Record Highs

Looking at Delta Air Lines, the stock experienced a similar bottom to LUV earlier this summer, breaching the $49 level on July 3. A furious rally ensued, thanks to upbeat earnings and an increased dividend. DAL shares then proceeded to tack on 19%, with their 20-day moving average containing any pullbacks. The equity is now a chip-shot below its Jan. 16 record high of $60.79. 

That $60 level could be in play next month, if past is precedent. According to White, DAL has ended September higher seven of the past 10 years, and averaged a healthy monthly gain of 5.5%. From its current perch of $58.52, a move of similar magnitude would place the shares above $61, a fresh record high. 

In the options pits, calls have been all the rage recently. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows DAL with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.90. Not only does this show that bought calls have outnumbered puts by a nearly 5-to-1 ratio, but the reading ranks in the 85th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for bullish bets of late.

Echoing this, short-term traders are more call-skewed than usual, with the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.43 ranking in the 4th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that near-term call open interest outweighs put open interest by a wider-than-usual margin right now.

Just like Southwest, it's a prime time to purchase premium on Delta options. The equity's SVI of 21% ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range, indicating low volatility expectations are being priced into its short-term options. 

The tech sector has been on a tear recently, with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) pacing for a more than 5.5% positive August return -- and fresh off a new record intraday peak of 8,101.87. Surging FAANG stocks have helped create tailwinds for the broader sector, and if history is any guide, social media name Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) and Google parent Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could be headed even higher in the near term.

Facebook Stock Tends to Rally During Labor Day Week

Facebook stock is down 0.5% today to trade at $174.42, paring its week-to-date gain to 0.4%. After hitting a record high of $218.62 on July 25, the shares took a record-setting slide after the firm's earnings report, but found a foothold atop their 20-month moving average -- a trendline that contained pullbacks in August 2015 and again in March and April. 

If past is precedent, next week could be a positive one for the security, too, considering FB has been one of the best S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks to own during Labor Day week over the past decade. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the security has averaged a return of 3.16% over the four-day period, looking back 10 years, with 83% of those returns positive. Another move of this magnitude would put the equity around $181, based on its current perch.

In the options pits, the weekly 9/7 series appears to be pricing in low volatility expectations compared to its short-term counterparts. Per Trade-Alert, the implied volatility term structure on weekly 9/7 FB options is currently 21.3%, compared to 22.89% for the standard September series and 23.96% for monthly October options.

Alphabet Stock Could Outperform Next Month

Alphabet stock is trading up 1.6% at $1,265.54, after Morgan Stanley -- which also set lofty price target on Amazon (AMZN) -- raised its GOOGL price target to a Street-high $1,515 from $1,325, citing Waymo as a potentially positive catalyst. Separately, Google issued a statement in response to President Donald Trump's accusations of search engine manipulation, saying "Search is not used to set a political agenda and we don’t bias our results toward any political ideology."

After topping out at a record high of $1,291.44 on July 27, GOOGL pulled back to a trendline connecting higher lows since May -- which currently coincides with the security's rising 40-day moving average. History suggests the shares could stage a bigger bounce from here over the next several weeks, considering it's been one of the best SPX stocks to own in September.

Per White, the equity has averaged a monthly gain of 2.28% over the last 10 Septembers, with 70% of those returns positive. A repeat of history to this degree could have Google stock closing in on $1,300 as it heads into the fourth quarter.

Those wanting to bet on more upside for Alphabet may want to think about a bullishly biased premium-buying strategy. GOOGL stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 18% ranks in the 20th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

The month of September has historically been rough for the S&P 500 Index (SPX). While these 25 stocks tend to buck the broad-market trend lower, below is a list of stocks that tend to struggle in the month. Among them are utilities provider PG&E Corporation (NYSE:PCG) and insurance issue American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG).

Looking back 10 years, the 25 stocks below have averaged the worst monthly returns in September. PCG is the only stock on the list that's finished the month higher just 10% of the time, averaging a loss of 1.65%, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. AIG stock, meanwhile, has racked up the second-highest average monthly loss, dropping 9.39%, and finishing September higher just 30% of the time.

PCG Stock Running Into Familiar Ceiling

PG&E shares are higher today, after Guggenheim upgraded the stock to "neutral" from "sell," and hiked its price target to $50 from $35. The analyst is optimistic about a legislative proposal that includes the opportunity to recover California wildfire costs via securitization bonds. At last check, PCG is up 1.4% to trade at $46.29.

From a longer-term perspective, the equity gapped lower in late December after the company suspended its dividend in the wake of the wildfires. Since then, the stock has bounced around between $38 and $48, and is at the upper end of that range currently. Another dose of seasonal headwinds could have PCG stock backpedaling in the face of a familiar ceiling.

New Lows in Store for AIG in September?

American International Group stock has been chopping lower for most of 2018, surrendering more than 9% so far year-to-date. More recently, AIG shares have run into a wall in the $54-$54.50 neighborhood -- where the security was trading before an early August post-earnings bear gap. Beyond that, the $55-$56 region has contained breakout attempts since a bear gap in early May. At last check, AIG was fractionally lower at $54. Another 9.39% drop next month would put the equity south of its May 3 annual low of $49.57.

Despite AIG's struggles, the majority of analysts still recommend buying it, and the average 12-month price target among this group represents a 15% premium to current levels. A round of overdue downgrades and/or price-target cuts could exacerbate seasonal headwinds.

Discount retailer Dollar General Corp. (NYSE:DG) is up 0.2% at $106.40 in afternoon trading, as traders gear up for the company's second-quarter earnings, scheduled to surface before the market opens, tomorrow, Aug. 30. Below we will take a look at how DG has been performing on the charts, and dive into what the options market has priced in for the shares' post-earnings moves.

Since hitting a fresh record high of $109.05 on Monday, Dollar General stock has pulled back slightly. Meanwhile, the retailer landed in Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of 25 worst S&P stocks to own during Labor Day week. Regardless, the retailer has picked up 14% year-to-date, recently breaking out of its June-August sideways trend with help from a floor of support at the $98 level.

Looking at the stock's earnings history, DG has closed lower the day after the company reported in four of the last eight quarters, including a 9.4% plunge in late May. Over the past two years, the shares have averaged a 6.5% move the day after earnings, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual 8.5% move for Thursday's trading.

According to data from the Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), put options traders have been circling Dollar General stock. Specifically, DG's 10-day put/call ratio of 5.52 ranks in the lofty 98th percentile of its annual range, meaning puts have been purchased over calls at a 6-to-1 rate.

The put-skew is very evident when you zero in on near-term options traders, too. This is per the equity's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 4.37, which ranks in the 99th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that options players have been more heavily skewed toward puts over calls on DG just 1% of the time during the past year.

Switching gears, analyst sentiment has been extremely optimistic toward DG. Of the 16 firms covering the retailer, 11 sport "buy" or "strong buy" recommendations. Plus, the stock's average 12-month price target of $111.09 comes in at a 4% premium to current levels.

The stock market tends to struggle in the month of September. However, certain sectors could be immune, if recent history is any indicator. Among the best exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to own in September is the Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ) -- which features airline stocks, casino stocks, and GrubHub Inc (NYSE:GRUB) among its top holdings. What's more, GRUB is eyeing its longest win streak in years, and now could be time to buy calls on the red-hot stock.

Specifically, below are the 20 best ETFs to own in September, looking back 10 years. The list is sorted by percent positive, with PEJ the lone fund to boast a 70% monthly win rate. On average, PEJ has advanced 1.42% in the month of September -- the second-highest on the list.

Time to Grab GrubHub Shares

Food delivery concern GRUB is among the top 10 PEJ holdings, representing 3.93% of the fund. The shares have been on a tear lately, doubling in 2018 and touching a record high of $145.07 out of the gate today. What's more, GrubHub stock is on pace for a ninth straight win, which would mark its longest win streak since October 2016. At last check, the shares are up 0.7% to trade at $143.99.

Meanwhile, short-term options are attractively priced right now. GRUB's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 33% is in just the 7th percentile of its annual range, suggesting near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

There have been eight other times GRUB stock was trading near new highs when its SVI was simultaneously perched in the lower fifth of its 12-month range. After these signals, the shares were higher one month later 75% of the time, and up an average of 7.84%, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. In other words, now might be a good time to purchase near-term GrubHub call options, if past is prologue.

Despite the equity's outperformance on the charts, more than half of analysts still maintain a "hold" or "strong sell" rating on the stock. A round of well-deserved upgrades could lure more buyers to the GRUB camp.

Likewise, a healthy 8.6% of its float is sold short -- representing more than a week's worth of pent-up buying demand, at the stock's average daily volume. Short interest declined nearly 13% in the past two reporting periods, and an extended short squeeze could add fuel to to GRUB's fire.

Retail stocks have put in an impressive performance in recent months, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) up more than 21% from its early April lows near $43. What's more, shares of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) topped out at a record high of $52.96 on Aug. 22, thanks to a round of strong retail earnings. And while the fund has since pulled back to trade at $51.79, there's a fairly good chance it could challenge its all-time peak next month.

Specifically, retail has been one of the best sectors to own in September, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Over the last 10 years, XRT has averaged a monthly gain of 1.53% -- the most of any ETF we track. Another move of this magnitude would put the shares at $52.58, based on their current perch.

American Eagle, Dick's Sporting Goods Near Key Trendlines

Among two specific XRT components that could present potential bullish trading ideas are American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO) and Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. (NYSE:DKS), considering both are trading near trendlines that have marked attractive entry points in the past. Plus, with implied volatilities deflated after earnings, short-term options on the retail stocks are relatively cheap at the moment.

Diving deeper, AEO stock fell 6.5% yesterday after the company gave a weak current-quarter profit forecast, but found support at its 80-day moving average. Over the past three years, there have been six prior instances of AEO pulling back to its 80-day trendline after trading north of it for 60% of the time within the previous two months, resulting in a one-month average return of 8.4%, per White, with 83% of those returns positive.

Based on its current perch at $25.37, another move of this magnitude would put American Eagle stock back near $27.50 -- within striking distance of its 11-year high of $29.88 from Aug. 22. Longer term, AEO shares are up an impressive 35% year-to-date, and are pacing for their seventh straight monthly gain, the longest such streak since 2012.

Dick's Sporting Goods, meanwhile, pared most of its intraday losses on Tuesday to close down 2.2%, after the retailer reported disappointing same-store sales. DKS is now trading within one standard deviation of its 320-day trendline after a lengthy stretch above it. In the two other times this signal has flashed since 2015, the security was up 4.03%, on average, one month later.

Today, the retail stock is up 1.3% at $35.80, and another 4% rally from here would have DKS trading at $37.50 near the end of next month. The shares are still boasting a month-to-date positive return of 5.7%, and have maintained a steady foothold atop their 320-day moving average since a late-May bull gap.

AEO, DKS Options Cheap After Earnings

Those wanting to bet on a repeat of history for AEO and DKS may want to consider a premium-buying strategy, considering short-term options on the retail stocks are pricing in low volatility expectations after earnings. Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for American Eagle is 35% and 36% for Dick's Sporting Goods -- both of which arrive in the 8th percentile of their annual ranges.