Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 8, 2016 at 10:00 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on fitness tracker specialist Fitbit Inc (NYSE:FIT), travel interest Tripadvisor Inc (NASDAQ:TRIP), and tech stock L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:LLL). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on FIT, TRIP, and LLL.

  • FIT received a downgrade to "hold" from "buy" at Deutsche Bank, which also slashed its price target by 50%, to $9. The brokerage firm cited "slower growth in the wearables market and FIT's recent demand deceleration," adding, "We continue to view FIT as a leader in the wearable fitness category, but given consumer demand appears to be waning for wearable devices, we are taking a wait-and-see approach to the name." The stock is down 2.3% at $7.79 this morning, widening its year-to-date deficit to nearly 74%, and tapping a fresh record low of $7.76 earlier. Short sellers wouldn't mind to see more losses ahead, either. At present, roughly 41% of Fitbit Inc's total float is wrapped up in these pessimistic positions. 

  • CLSA has initiated coverage on a number of travel stocks, giving upbeat ratings to a couple of peers, but slapping TRIP with an "underperform" opinion, saying any benefits of the company's business transition are already priced in. The stock has been sliding down the charts since losing its foothold above the $60 level in early November, last seen trading at $47.68, and last Friday hit a three-year low of $45.95. Today's brokerage note is just more of the same for Tripadvisor Inc, however. Only one of the 17 analysts tracking the stock recommends buying the shares. 

  • BofA-Merrill Lynch cut its rating on LLL to "neutral" from "buy," sending the stock sliding 1.4% to $159.32 and paring its 2016 lead to 33.3%. Looking back, the shares hit a record high of $161.91 just yesterday, but with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 73, L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. is technically overbought, suggesting a breather may have been due. It appears pessimism toward the stock may be growing elsewhere on Wall Street, as well. While short interest represents a low 2.1% of the security's total float, these bearish bets grew by 20.5% during the most recent two-week reporting period, even as the stock continued to climb. 
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Published on Dec 8, 2016 at 10:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Bank stocks have been some of the strongest performers in the so-called post-election "Trump rally." Financial shares are trading higher again today, too, in the wake of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest policy decision. At last check, Dow stock JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was up 0.4% at $84.38 -- fresh off a record high of $85.43 -- bringing its post-election advance north of 20%. Amid this surge, financial shares have come under the watchful eye of options traders, with JPM one of the stocks with the most options volume over the past 10 trading days.

Specifically, JPM has seen 218,036 puts and 281,544 calls traded in the last two weeks, according to data compiled by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. In fact, JPM put open interest is docked at a 52-week peak, with 895,811 puts outstanding. Call open interest is not far behind, with 856,209 JPM calls currently open -- in the 99th percentile of its annual range.

Drilling down on the past two weeks' worth of activity shows speculators bought to open 24,402 JPM calls at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), versus 20,030 puts. The stock's January 2018 70-strike put and 75-strike call saw the biggest rises in open interest over this time frame, with a respective 11,205 and 17,819 contracts added.

This relatively neck-and-neck action is continuing in today's trading, too, with 21,762 calls and 18,141 puts on the tape at last check -- roughly 1.4 times the volume that's typically seen in JPM's options pits at this point in the day. Most active is the stock's July 90 call, where it looks like one speculator bought to open a 3,500-contract block for around $1.2 million (number of contracts * $3.50 premium paid * 100 shares per contract) to bet on new highs by summer. Put players, meanwhile, may be selling to open the weekly 12/9 84 strike, hoping JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) maintains its footing atop $84 through tomorrow's close, when the series expires.

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Published on Dec 8, 2016 at 10:53 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • By the Numbers
In our quest to find stocks on the brink of major moves, we frequently look at key retracement and Fibonacci levels. These can be used to help predict both trends and trend reversals. This week, among the stocks flirting with critical technical levels are real estate investment trust (REIT) American Tower Corp (NYSE:AMT), retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY), tech stocks Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT) and Red Hat Inc (NYSE:RHT), as well as gold concerns Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) and Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM).

On the surface, AMT has had a solid-if-unspectacular year, up 6.4% at $103.12. Since its late-July record high at $118.26, however, the stock has been pulling back. Fortunately for shareholders, this downward action could abate with AMT sitting atop a 50% retracement of its February low and 2016 highs. This corresponds with the round $100 century level, hinting at a potential double-barreled layer of support.

amt weekly dec 8

BBBY has sat out the broad-market rally in 2016, down 1% at $47.74. Technically, however, the stock has shown signs of life in recent weeks. The shares pulled back to their 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of their 2000 lows and early 2014 highs, but quickly bounced. Now, BBBY is sitting around its highs from 2003-07, and atop the 50% retracement level.

bbby weekly dec 8

AMAT has been on fire, soaring over 75% year-to-date at $32.72 -- including today's 16-year high of $32.92. Moreover, the tech stock is at a perfect 50% retracement of its 2000 highs and late-2008 low.

amat weekly dec 8

RHT has had a poor year, dropping 5% at $78.74. That said, the shares did bounce in early 2016 at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of their 2000 highs and 2001 lows, and are currently in the 50% retracement area -- suggesting another sharp move could be forthcoming.

rht weekly dec 8

ABX has struggled since peaking in early July, but has still more than doubled in value year-to-date at $15.80. Last month, the stock may have even put in a short-term bottom. ABX shares hit the 50% retracement level of their late-2015 lows and the aforementioned high, and subsequently bounced.

abx weekly dec 8

It's a similar setup on sector peer NEM. The stock is up 87% year-to-date at $33.68, helped by a recent bounce off its 50% retracement level of its late-2015 lows and August 2016 highs. Another big swing could be around the corner, with NEM now moving toward its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

nem weekly dec 8

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Published on Dec 8, 2016 at 11:23 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Expectational Analysis

Chipmaker and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ:AVGO) is gearing up to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes tonight. In the meantime, AVGO stock is up 0.8% at $169.82. And while the stock is continuing its recent bounce from a historically bullish trendline, sentiment toward AVGO is already an near optimistic extreme -- suggesting the shares may struggle to repeat their positive post-earnings history.

Starting with the stock's technical backdrop, AVGO has added 17% in 2016, topping out at a record high just shy of $180 in August. Since then, however, the shares have been stuck in a sideways pattern in the roughly $160-$178 region. But AVGO recently pulled back to support at the 160-day moving average -- a trendline that has been following the shares higher since February.

According to data compiled by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the stock has pulled back to this moving average four times in the past three years. At five days after this signal, AVGO has been positive 75% of the time, averaging a 4.9% gain. After 21 sessions, the average gain has grown to 7.8%, with AVGO positive 67% of the time.

AVGO Daily Chart December 8

Adding to the case for an impending move higher is the equity's history of positive post-earnings moves. Over the past eight quarters, AVGO has moved to the upside in the session after earnings seven times -- averaging a gain of 8.1%. The one instance over this period when the stock dipped post-earnings was in September, when the shares dropped 2.2% in the subsequent session. Overall, AVGO has averaged a 7.3% swing in either direction in the session subsequent to reporting, and options traders are currently setting their expectations right in line, pricing in a 7.4% move for tomorrow's trading.

While this analysis of AVGO's historic performance seems to suggest the stock is set to rally post-earnings, it must be noted that sentiment among analysts and traders is already very bullish. Of 27 brokerage firms following the stock, just one rates it a "hold" and none recommend selling. Plus, the average 12-month price target is docked in never-before-seen territory, at $204.70. That means it may be difficult for AVGO to get a boost from bullish analyst attention after earnings. Meanwhile, short interest on the stock fell by more than 10% during the most recent reporting period, and now represents just 1% of AVGO's total float -- indicating there's minimal buying power on the sidelines left to give the shares a lift.

Turning to the options pits, it's more of the same. Across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) speculators have purchased more than four AVGO calls for each put over the past 10 days. What's more, the resulting call/put volume ratio of 4.10 rests just 1 percentage point from an annual bullish high. And with peak open interest across all of Broadcom Ltd's (NASDAQ:AVGO) options residing at the December 175 call, with the 170 call not far behind, the shares could run into trouble at those overhead levels as the front-month expiration approaches.

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Published on Dec 8, 2016 at 11:48 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) has been heavily targeted by options traders in recent weeks, with speculators showing particular interest in calls over puts. Per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, 690,274 calls have traded on F in the past two weeks, compared to 204,659 puts. This theme is echoed in Ford stock's top-heavy 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.64 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which ranks in the elevated 66th annual percentile. Simply stated, calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

Diving deeper, F's March 15 call has seen the biggest rise in open interest over this two-week time frame, with 210,746 contracts added. In fact, this out-of-the-money strike is now home to F's top open interest position, with nearly 245,000 contracts outstanding. As a point of comparison, the automaker's next largest open interest position is the January 2017 14.75-strike call, where 150,557 contracts currently reside.

According to Trade-Alert, the bulk of the activity at the March 15 call occurred yesterday, Dec. 7, and was a result of speculators purchasing new positions. Specifically, 211,466 March 15 calls traded on Wednesday -- 207,942 of which translated into open interest overnight -- with 98% going off at the ask price. This strike is F's most active option in today's trading, too, with 3,809 contracts on the tape at last check. However, given the lofty levels of open interest here, it's hard to tell whether traders are opening or closing positions today.

Looking at the charts, F hasn't seen the north side of $15 since October 2015. And while the stock has added nearly 18% since hitting its most recent low of $11.07 on Nov. 9. it still remains down 7.5% year-to-date to trade at $13.04. Regardless of where the shares of Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) settle at March options expiration, though, the most the recent batch of call buyers stand to lose is the initial premium paid.

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 12:03 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity

Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) is buzzing this morning after announcing a five-year plan that includes opening more than 12,000 stores -- a 50% jump -- and targeting annual revenue growth of 10%. In addition, the coffee giant is attempting to establish a presence in the high-end coffee scene with its new Reserve Roastery and Tasting Room locations. Headed by Howard Schultz, who will be stepping down from his role as CEO in 2017 to focus on the project, the Reserve brand aims to appeal to millennials and other consumers who don't mind shelling out for more exclusive, upscale blends. As the coffee stock edges higher this morning, option players seem optimistic that SBUX will continue its recent upward momentum.

SBUX is currently trading up 1% at $57.99 so far today. The coffee giant's shares haven't been able to overcome the $58-$59 region since the stock's post-earnings bear gap in April, although the shares are up notably since touching an annual low of $50.84 in early November. What's more, SBUX toppled its 10-month moving average in November for the first time since March, and is currently on pace to close above the trendline for the second month in a row.

161207SBUX

So far today, option players seem to be betting on success for SBUX. Calls are trading at nearly 1.3 times their average intraday rate, and are outpacing puts more than 2-to-1, with 14,000 calls crossing the line, compared to fewer than 6,500 puts. Specifically, it looks like traders are targeting the weekly 12/9 57.50-strike call, with possible buy-to-open action detected, indicating option buyers are betting SBUX will extend its lead above the $57.50 mark through the end of the week.

This appetite for the coffee stock's calls is nothing new. SBUX's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows just over two calls bought to open for every put over the last 10 weeks. The December 55 call is the top front-month open interest position, followed by the December 52.50 call -- presenting little in the way of short-term options-related resistance. Analysts are also firmly in SBUX's bullish corner, with 17 of 22 rating the shares a "buy" or better, and without a single "sell" to be found.

However, skepticism is more prevalent among near-term traders, with SBUX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.95 sitting in the 89th percentile of its annual range, indicating near-term option players are more put-skewed than usual. The stock's near-term puts can be had for a relative bargain, too, with SBUX's 30-day put/call implied volatility skew of 9.4% sitting lower than 99% of all other readings from the past year, indicating Starbucks Corporation's (NASDAQ:SBUX) short-term puts have rarely been cheaper, compared to short-term call options.

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 12:39 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis

Drugmakers been having a rough time lately, despite a brief post-election pop for the sector. In fact, biotech and drug stocks have consistently ranked at or near the bottom of our internal Sector Scorecard for several months. While a loss for Hillary Clinton in last month's presidential election was initially seen as a boon for the these stocks, given her price-gouging tough talk, it has since become apparent that Donald Trump's victory won't necessarily take the pressure off. In fact, in an interview with Time, which named the president-elect "Person of the Year," Trump said, "I'm going to bring down drug prices," adding, "I don't like what has happened with drug prices."

The comments having been hitting the drug sector hard so far today. In fact, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) has dropped 5% to $61.14 -- its lowest level since Election Day. Among specific stocks also slumping are Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE:MNK), and Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE:AGN) -- all of which are surrounded by a surprising amount of optimism on the Street and in the options pits.

Starting with GILD, the shares have surrendered 30% over the past 12 months, and have been facing downward pressure from the descending 100-day moving average. In fact, this trendline has largely limited the stock's upward moves since August 2015. Off 0.1% at $72.42 today, GILD is seated just above its early November two-year low. And it could continue to be a bumpy road in coming weeks, considering the stock has historically been among the worst performers for the month of December.

Despite this, 13 out of 21 analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating on the equity, and not one rates it a "sell." Plus, the average 12-month price target sits far overhead, at $95.74. What's more, GILD is among the list of 21 S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks MarketWatch called out for analysts' extremely high expectations for the next 12 months.  Considering the security's technical performance, a round of downgrades and/or price-target cuts appears likely.

Brokerages aren't the only bullish bunch, either. Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD) has seen its calls bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip in recent weeks across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio currently stands at a top-heavy 3.54 -- just 7 percentage points from a 52-week peak. A capitulation among these bullish holdouts could result in headwinds.

Turning our attention to MNK, the stock is down 4% at $51.55 today, earlier tapping a new two-year low of $50.72. So far in 2016, the shares have dropped almost 31%, and scathing comments from short seller Citron Research have done nothing to help -- nor has this morning's price-target cut to $72 from $115 at Oppenheimer. Still, 13 brokerage firms call MNK a "buy" or better, compared to a single "hold" and not one "sell" opinion. What's more, the stock ranks at the top of MarketWatch's aforementioned list, based on its implied 12-month upside potential of 56%.

Meanwhile, MNK holds a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.26 at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX -- just 2 percentage points from an annual high. This call-skew is echoed among near-term speculators, too. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.83 sits in the low 12th percentile of its annual range. An unwinding of this optimism could weigh on the shares.

That said, there are some signs skepticism may be building. Short interest on Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE:MNK) surged by nearly 30% during the most recent two-week reporting period. In fact, it's possible some of the aforementioned call buyers were actually short sellers in disguise, hedging their bearish stock positions with options.

Finally, AGN is off 1.4% at $188.25 today, widening its year-to-date deficit to nearly 40%, and coming within striking distance of its late-November two-year low. Nonetheless, more than three-quarters of covering analysts call the stock at least a "buy," without a single "sell" rating in sight. Plus, with an average 12-month price target of $264.84, the implied upside potential registers at an astounding 41%. If that's not enough, Piper Jaffray earlier lifted its price target to $202 from $200.

AGN calls have been unusually popular of late, too. The security's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio sits higher than 96% of the past year's readings, at 3.08. But like MNK, ulterior motives may be at play. Allergan plc Ordinary Shares (NYSE:AGN) has seen an influx of bearish attention in recent weeks, with short interest climbing by a whopping 162.7% in the most recent reporting period. Still, these pessimistic positions represent a relatively moderate 7.3% of AGN's available float. In other words, the stock appears vulnerable to additional short selling and/or negative analyst attention.

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 1:22 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Expectational Analysis
  • By the Numbers
U.S. stock markets have soared to record heights since Donald Trump unexpectedly cleared his path to the White House in early November. As Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal noted, bank -- and energy -- stocks, in particular, have been leading the charge higher. While big banks Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) have commanded much of the attention among financial stocks, shares of regional bank Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF) have been quietly climbing up the charts. Nevertheless, sentiment toward the bank stock is tilted in a skeptical direction, suggesting their could be more fuel in RF's tank.

In the options pits, for instance, RF's 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is docked at 0.35. While this indicates more calls have been bought to open than puts on an absolute basis over the past 10 weeks, the ratio is perched in the elevated 87th annual percentile. In other words, bearish bets have been initiated relative to bullish at a faster-than-usual clip.

Echoing this is RF's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.37, which rests above 69% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. Simply stated, speculative players are more put-heavy than usual among options set to expire in three months or less. Drilling down, peak put open interest for RF in the front-month December series is found at the underfoot 13 strike --  which could serve as a foothold for the shares in the near term, as the hedges related to these bets unwind ahead of expiration at next Friday's close.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, shorts have been quick to increase their bearish exposure to the outperforming bank stock. In the most recent reporting period, short interest jumped 23.5% -- even as RF was soaring to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. In fact, there are now 41.9 million RF shares sold short, the most since February 2011. RF stock could get a lift, should some of these short sellers throw in the towel on their losing positions.

Meanwhile, RF stock appears to be long overdue for a round of bullish brokerage attention. Of the 20 analysts currently covering the financial shares, 16 maintain a "hold" or "strong sell" recommendation. Plus, the average 12-month price target of $13.08 stands at a discount to the security's present price. Upgrades and/or price-target hikes could translate into a fresh burst of buying power for RF.

Diving deeper into the stock's technical backdrop, the shares of Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF) are up nearly 30% from their Nov. 8 close of $10.89. What's more, RF stock hit an eight-year peak of $14.27 yesterday, and were last seen trading pennies shy of this notable milestone, at $14.25. The bank stock could garner more attention next week, when the Federal Reserve unveils its latest policy decision -- with expectations high that the central bank will raise interest rates for the first time since last December.

RF daily since january 2016

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 2:27 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) has been all the rage of late, thanks in no small part to President-elect Donald Trump. And while an analyst at Cowen said Trump's "emerging pattern of using Twitter as a bully pulpit to negotiating leverage over targeted businesses" was concerning, the president-elect's recent tweet about a $50 billion investment from Japan's SoftBank has renewed chatter of a potential Twitter takeover. This M&A buzz may be what's lifting the shares of TWTR today, but regardless, the security was last seen trading up 5.2% at $19.18 -- with options traders eyeing even more upside for the social media stock.

Diving deeper, roughly 115,000 TWTR calls have traded so far -- two times what's typically seen at this point in the day -- compared to nearly 38,000 puts. Most active is the March 21 call, where 9,736 contracts have changed hands. It looks like some of the activity at this out-of-the-money strike is of the buy-to-open variety, a theory echoed by data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE). If this is the case, the goal is for TWTR to break out above $21 by March options expiration.

More broadly, today's call-skewed trading just echoes the withstanding trend seen in TWTR's options pits. In the past 20 sessions, for instance, speculative players at the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 152,251 calls on TWTR stock, versus 51,072 puts. Plus, TWTR's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.46 ranks in the 16th annual percentile, meaning short-term speculators are more call-heavy than usual toward the equity.

Outside of the options pits, short interest on the social media stock plunged 21.3% in the most recent reporting period. However, with a healthy 8.7% of TWTR's total float still sold short, the stock could be due for some increased volatility, as short sellers continue to readjust their bearish positions. Plus, there are currently four "strong buy" recommendations levied toward TWTR, versus 16 "holds" and five "sell" or worse suggestions. Should the stock continue to move on takeover chatter, a repositioning among analysts could create a catalyst for the shares of Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR).

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 2:49 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been the best stock on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in 2016, up 185.5% at $94.10. In fact, the shares are just a chip-shot from their late-November record high at $95.25. As if NVDA hasn't stood out enough, the virtualization concern is also the only stock to find a place on a pair of "best" studies we've conducted recently.

First, NVIDIA has been one of the top SPX stocks since the election, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. The shares have soared an astounding 32% during that roughly one-month time span. Second, in a more forward-looking analysis, NVDA came up as one of the 25 best SPX stocks for December, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Looking back 10 years, the stock has been positive during the month eight times, with an average gain of 6.6%. So far this December, the shares are up 2.7%.

This bullish seasonal trend isn't the only factor suggesting NVDA may have more room to run. The stock is also well-positioned to benefit from a capitulation among a surprising number of skeptics on Wall Street.

Assuming the shares stay hot, they're primed to capitalize on a well-deserved round of upgrades. While a majority of analysts rate NVDA a "buy" or better, 10 still maintain a "hold" or a "strong sell" opinion. Not to mention, with a consensus 12-month price target of $85.02 perched below current levels, the stock seems due for price-target hikes.

On top of that, there's plenty of short interest on the outperformer. By the numbers, 68.5 million shares are sold short, or 13.4% of the stock's float. With the majority of these positions likely under water, a rush to cover could unleash a fresh wave of buying power on NVIDIA.

Plus, on the options front, put open interest in the front three-months' series nearly doubles call open interest. This, according to NVDA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.92 -- in the put-skewed 97th percentile of its annual range. If these put traders are indeed bears -- rather than, say, shareholders protecting paper profits -- a mass exodus could further fan the flame.

Speaking of short-term options, now is an opportune time to purchase premium, regardless of the motive. NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 37% ranks in the low 16th annual percentile, suggesting near-term options are relatively inexpensive at the moment. Plus, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 indicates NVDA has tended to make larger moves over the past 12 months than the options market has priced in.

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 2:52 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) is getting a major boost today, after yesterday's meeting between SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son and Donald Trump prompted the president-elect to tweet about a potential $50 billion investment from the Japanese firm. Considering SoftBank is a majority owner in S, an analyst at Oppenheimer said the meeting could possibly "be a precursor" to a merger between Sprint, T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS), and DISH Network Corp (NASDAQ:DISH) -- which SoftBank has long been hoping for. Also lifting S shares is news the company will partner with Pokemon Go creator Niantic Inc. The stock was last seen up 7% at $8.74, after hitting a fresh two-year high of $8.90 earlier, but options traders are busy betting on a pullback.

Digging right in, S puts are crossing at four times the typical intraday rate -- with roughly 20,000 contracts on the tape. And with around 22,000 calls traded at last check, total options volume is on pace to finish in the 98th percentile of its annual range. Leading the action by a wide margin is the weekly 12/9 8.50-strike put, where speculators appear to be purchasing new positions -- expecting the stock to slip back below $8.50 by the week's end, when the series expires.

Taking a step back, put buying has been popular in Sprint's options pits in recent weeks. Across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.52 sits higher than 88% of all comparable readings from the past year. Of course, given the stock's impressive technical performance this year, it's possible some shareholders have been picking up puts to protect paper profits.

Regardless, near-term options buyers are currently getting a relative bargain on S. Specifically, the stock's short-term options are pricing in unusually low volatility expectations at the moment. This is evident from the equity's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 50.2% and its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 47% -- readings that rank in the 13th and 10th percentiles of their respective 12-month ranges.

Outside of the options pits, some bears have been hitting the exits. Short interest on the security fell by nearly 10% during the most recent two-week reporting period. That said, more than 23% of the Sprint's available float is still tied up in these bearish bets, representing about six sessions' worth of trading, at the stock's typical daily volume. That means a short-squeeze situation -- which could give the shares an extra boost -- may just be getting started.

Meanwhile a round of upbeat analyst attention could also be a boon for S. At present, only two of the 19 brokerage firms tracking the stock recommend buying it. What’s more, Sprint's average 12-month price target of $5.51 sits at a 37% discount to current trading levels.

From a technical standpoint, Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) has been a standout performer, roughly quadrupling in value from its late-January record low of $2.18. The shares have been trending higher since then, with a bounce off the 100-day moving average last month helping the stock break out above resistance in the $7 region. One note of caution, though, the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 79 is parked in overbought territory, suggesting a near-term pullback may be in the cards.

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Published on Dec 7, 2016 at 3:04 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis

In the wake of Donald Trump's surprise election victory, copper prices have been on a tear, as traders bet on a big infrastructure boom. In fact, copper futures rallied roughly 20% in November alone, hitting a 17-month high. What's more, the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report indicates that net long positions in copper have more than tripled since mid-2016, and now stand at a record high. Against this backdrop, we decided to take a look at copper mining stocks Vale SA (ADR) (NYSE:VALE) and Southern Copper Corp (NYSE:SCCO), which could have room to run.

CoT Copper Dec 7



VALE has nearly tripled in the past year, touching a nearly two-year high of $9.31 today. The stock's 10- and 20-month moving averages just made a bullish cross for the first time since mid-2011 -- when VALE shares were north of $30 and trading at post-financial-crisis highs -- further reflecting the stock's recent strength. What's more, VALE has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 71 percentage points in the past three months alone, and was last seen 3% higher at $9.07.

VALE chart Dec 7



On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), option traders have bought to open VALE puts over calls at an accelerated clip during the past 10 weeks. In fact, the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.56 is in the 99th percentile of its annual range. Likewise, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.27 indicates that near-term puts more than double calls, and is 1 percentage point from its own annual peak.

However, considering VALE's rapid-fire ascent, it's possible that some of the recent put buying is attributable to shareholders seeking an options hedge in the event of a pullback. But should the "vanilla" bears abandon ship, an unwinding of pessimism could add fuel to VALE's fire.

Whatever the motive, now is an opportune time to buy VALE's near-term options. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 62% is in the bottom quartile of its annual range, implying that VALE's near-term options are attractively priced, historically speaking. Further, the stock sports a lofty Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 99, indicating VALE shares have tended to exceed option players' volatility expectations in the past year. In other words, the stars are aligned for would-be VALE premium buyers right now.

Outside of the options pits, Vale SA (ADR) (NYSE:VALE) could benefit from a flood of upbeat analyst attention. Currently, just two out of nine brokerage firms deem VALE worthy of a "buy" or better rating. Today, in fact, Credit Suisse upgraded the mining issue to "neutral" from "underperform," and hiked its price target by 75%, to $7 from $4.

SCCO has risen more than 19% since the election, touching a two-year high of $34.79 on Nov. 11. At last check, the shares are within striking distance of that peak, up 0.4% at $34.29, though their 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now in overbought territory.

SCCO chart Dec 7



Although SCCO's options are lightly traded on an absolute basis, long calls have been more popular than usual of late. The equity's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio of 5.07 is higher than 88% of all other readings from the past 12 months. However, some of those recent call buyers could be short sellers hedging against more upside.

Short interest on SCCO surged 20.5% during the past two reporting periods, and now accounts for a healthy 10.1% of the stock's total available float. At SCCO's average pace of trading, it would take nearly a week to buy back these bearish bets -- plenty of fuel for a short squeeze. Regardless of motive, SCCO -- like VALE -- boasts attractive short-term option premiums. The equity's SVI of 30% is higher than just 26% of all other readings from the past year.

Also like VALE, Southern Copper Co (NYSE:SCCO) could be overdue for some analyst love -- which could draw even more buyers to the table. Although the shares have skyrocketed more than 32% in just three months, only one in seven analysts considers SCCO worthy of a "buy" or better endorsement. Today, Credit Suisse has capitulated, upgrading the shares to "neutral" from "underperform" and hiking their price target by more than 50%, to $32 from $21.

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