Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 22, 2016 at 3:02 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Weekly Options
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest weekly options volume during the past 10 trading days. Stocks highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are social media stock Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) and iPhone parent Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). Here's a quick look at how options traders are lining up on TWTR and AAPL.

most active weekly options December 22

TWTR is getting demolished this afternoon, down 4.5% at $16.31 -- and on track for a seventh consecutive daily loss. Panic seems to be persisting amid a recent exodus of top executives. Year-to-date, the shares have now surrendered nearly 30%.

Nonetheless, call buying has been the predominant strategy in TWTR's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the microblogging stock has seen 4.30 calls bought to open for every put during the past two weeks -- a ratio that ranks in the bullishly skewed 84th annual percentile. Echoing this, Twitter's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.42 rests in the low 7th annual percentile, hinting at a near-extreme call skew among options in the front three-months' series. Should option bulls begin hitting the exits, the shares could be pressured further south.

Today, however, Twitter Inc put options are flying off the shelves at nearly double the usual intraday rate. The weekly 12/23 17 strike -- which is now in the money -- is the most active put option, and it appears some buy-to-open activity may be transpiring.

Meanwhile, fresh off yesterday's patent infringement lawsuit, AAPL is down 0.8% at $116.07 -- but remains about 10% higher in 2016. Separately, despite reiterating a "buy" rating and an $135 price target, Brean Capital expressed caution about the upcoming iPhone cycle. "Given the lack of model clarity, along with lack of super compelling new features and, frankly, higher ASPs in the U.S given the roll-back of carrier subsidies, competition in China, and higher ASPs in India, we believe it's very possible that the CY'18 demand is more muted that what we'd all originally envisioned," Brean explained.

That isn't stopping options traders from buying to open calls today, with the most action taking place at the weekly 12/23 117 strike. ISE data confirms new positions have been purchased, though it appears some are tied to stock. In any case, today's call buying merely echoes what we've witnessed in recent weeks at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX. Apple Inc.'s 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.05 sits just 8 percentage points from a 12-month peak.

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Published on Dec 22, 2016 at 3:21 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Kate Spade & Co (KATE) is trading lower along with its fellow retail stocks, with shares of the handbag maker down 3.5% at $14.09 -- and fresh off a three-year low of $14.02. While a negative earnings reaction for retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ:BBBY) and BlueFin Research's expectations of a fiscal third-quarter earnings miss for Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS) are likely weighing on KATE stock today, options traders are nonetheless keeping the faith. In fact, amid a low-volume session in KATE's options pits, calls are outpacing puts by a more than 10-to-1 margin.

Most active is the February 16 call, where it looks like options traders may be purchasing new positions. If this is the case, the goal is for KATE stock to surge back above $16 by the close on Friday, Feb. 17 -- when the back-month options expire. Should the calls finish out of the money, though, the most the call buyers stand to lose is the initial premium paid.

Today's call-skewed session is nothing new for KATE, though. The stock has seen some of the most active options trading among mid-cap names over the past 10 sessions, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Specifically, 27,746 calls have traded on KATE over the last two weeks, compared to 3,416 puts.

Widening the scope reveals a prevalence of call buying relative to put buying at the major options exchanges in recent months. In fact, KATE sports a top-heavy 50-day call/put volume ratio of 9.74 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). What's more, this ratio ranks in the elevated 73rd annual percentile, meaning long calls have been initiated over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

Outside of the options pits, short interest is almost non-existent on KATE, having dropped 52.6% in the two most recent reporting periods -- as bearish bettors likely took profits on the plunging stock. Now, the 3.6 million KATE shares that are sold short is the fewest the stock has seen since May 2009. Analysts, meanwhile, have taken a glass-half-full stance toward the retail stock, with 71% maintaining a "buy" or better rating, and not a single "sell" to be found.

From a contrarian perspective, Kate Spade & Co (KATE) could be at risk of additional losses in the near term. Should the shares continue to add to their nearly 21% year-to-deficit, an unwinding of optimism among options traders, a renewed burst of selling pressure from short sellers, and/or a round of downgrades from the brokerage bunch could send KATE stock on its next leg lower.

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Published on Dec 22, 2016 at 3:27 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are lower as markets react to this morning's mixed economic data. Among specific equities in focus today are uranium mining stock Uranium Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ:URRE), snack specialist Conagra Brands Inc (NYSE:CAG), and medical device maker Second Sight Medical Products Inc (NASDAQ:EYES). Here's a quick look at what's moving URRE, CAG, and EYES.

  • URRE is up 34% at $1.46, as uranium stocks rally after President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that it was time for the country to "greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability," a project some say could cost as much as $1 trillion over the next 30 years. Longer term, URRE has been in a free-fall over the last few years, down more than 99% since its 2011 highs, and touching a record low of $0.97 just last month. Although short interest is up 23.5% over the last two reporting periods, shorted shares still account for only 8.6% of URRE's float, which would take less than one day to cover, at the equity's average daily volume. However, that's not too surprising, considering there's only so far a penny stock can fall.  

  • CAG is up 3.2% at $39.23 -- earlier notching a new record high of $39.43 -- after the company delivered stronger-than-expected earnings. Conagra Brands Inc said cost-minimizing measures, as well as less discounting, helped boost sales and quarterly profit, and the company expects sales to continue to improve over the next two quarters. CAG is up more than 32% since touching an annual low in late January, and it looks like option players are betting on even more upside, with CAG's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) showing 6.62 calls bought to open for every put over the last 10 weeks, a reading that sits in the 72nd percentile of its annual range.
  • EYES is trading 10.3% higher at $2.13, on news that England's National Health Service will be funding studies of Sthe company's 'bionic eye' in 10 patients in 2017. Second Sight Medical Products Inc shares have been in a channel of lower highs and lows since mid-2015, and today could take out their 30-day moving average for just the second time since early October. Short sellers may be sweating, given EYES' short interest accounts for 13% of the stock's float, which would take almost a month to cover, at the stock's average daily volume.
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Published on Dec 21, 2016 at 12:52 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

Egg seller Cal-Maine Foods Inc (NASDAQ:CALM) is gearing up to report earnings tomorrow evening, with shareholders undoubtedly watching closely to see if this latest report goes better than the last one. On Wall Street, a tremendous amount of short sellers are hoping CALM's post-earnings move is to the downside, though some bears may be buying options insurance.

So far today, CALM is up 0.4% at $43.40. The shares have been marking a string of lower highs and lows since their October 2015 all-time peak. After its most recent low in early November, CALM recovered 21%, and now rests near the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement mark of its March-to-November slide. However, the stock's overhead 200-day moving average, which contained rally attempts earlier this year, could serve as a ceiling.

161221CALM2

As alluded to earlier, short interest accounts for more than 37% of CALM's float. It would take a whopping 41.8 days of trading to cover all these shorted shares, at CALM's average daily volume. If CALM makes a sudden move higher after earnings tomorrow, a swift exodus of short sellers could help the stock break out of its recent channel.

In the option pits, calls are king. CALM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.49 sits at an annual low, indicating short-term option players haven't been more call-skewed in the past 12 months. What's more, widening the scope, CALM's 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) of 0.91 sits at an annual peak, indicating calls have been bought to open over puts at an annual-high pace during the past 10 weeks, though absolute volume is very light.

The January 2017 45-strike call is home to peak call open interest, and was the most popular option during the past two weeks, with more than 2,300 contracts added. However, some of those calls may have been bought to open by Cal-Maine Foods Inc (NYSE:CALM) shorts seeking a pre-earnings options hedge.

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Published on Dec 21, 2016 at 2:15 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
  • Intraday Option Activity
Puts are trading at an accelerated clip on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) today -- with 18,406 contracts on the tape, or 1.9 times the expected intraday amount. Most active is XLK's January 2017 48-strike put, largely due to a 13,000-contract block that was bought to open for an initial net debit of $494,000 (number of contracts * $0.38 premium paid * 100 shares per contract). According to Trade-Alert, this is possibly a result of a hedging play, as one trader braces for a near-term pullback below $48 for the tech-heavy exchange-traded fund (ETF), whose biggest holdings include Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB).

However, today's put-skewed session -- fewer than 1,300 XLK calls have traded so far -- mirrors a broader trend. In fact, there are currently 312,634 XLK puts outstanding, in the 90th percentile of its annual range and just off the Dec. 16 52-week peak of 527,493 open puts. As a point of comparison, total call open interest for the ETF stands at a relatively meager 85,182 contracts, and is docked in the low 13th percentile of its 12-month range.

Drilling down, the January 2017 40-, 42-, 43-, and 45-strike puts make up XLK's top four open interest positions, with a collective 201,675 contracts outstanding. As such, the ETF's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is tilted at a top-heavy 5.76. What's more, this ratio ranks just 1 percentage point from a 52-week peak, suggesting short-term speculators have rarely been as put-heavy toward XLK as they are now.

XLK open interest

It's likely that some of the buy-to-open activity at near-term put strikes could be of the protective kind, considering XLK is fresh off a Dec. 15 16-year peak of $49.41, and was last seen at $49.03, up 14.5% on the year. Nevertheless, skepticism toward the shares is on the rise outside of the options pits, as well. Specifically, short interest nearly doubled in the two most recent reporting period. Plus, with 35.95 million XLK shares sold short, these bearish bets are at their loftiest perch since at least early 2002.

And while speculators both in and out of the options pits may be bracing for more Trump-related turbulence for tech stocks, an unwinding of the skepticism amid the sector's strong price action could create additional tailwinds for the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK). According to our internal Sector Scorecard -- complied by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White -- 75% of the 44 stocks that fall under our "Computer" umbrella are trading north of their 80-day moving averages, yet less than half of analyst ratings are a "buy." Plus, it would take roughly four sessions to cover all of the shorted shares on these individual stocks.

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Published on Dec 21, 2016 at 2:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity
Sanofi SA's (ADR) (NYSE:SNY) hopes of buying Actelion have been dealt a serious blow, after Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) -- which previously ended merger talks with Actelion -- resumed M&A discussions with the Swiss biotech. SNY options traders have responded to the corporate drama, with volume ramping up on the call side of the aisle.

Specifically, Sanofi call options are being exchanged at nearly three times the expected intraday clip. The most active call is the January 2017 38 strike -- though volume is low, from an absolute perspective -- where speculators are likely purchasing new positions. The goal of call buyers is for SNY stock to extend its lead above $38 through front-month expiration, at the close on Friday, Jan. 20.

This represents a dramatic turn of events for the drugmaker. Previously, put buyers were in the driver's seat. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), SNY has racked up a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 11.59 -- in the put-skewed 86th percentile of its annual range.

As a result, short-term open interest levels are tilted toward puts, especially among near-the-money strikes. Specifically, the stock's front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is 2.55, with puts more than doubling calls. Overall, the top open interest position is the January 2017 39-strike put, with more than 4,200 contracts in residence.

Fortunately for call buyers -- and unfortunately for bearish speculators -- SNY shares are actually responding positively to the JNJ-Actelion news. At last check, the stock is 1.6% higher at $39.47. However, it also appears SNY may be hitting a snag at its 40-day moving average, which previously acted as support, but could now be switching roles as resistance.

Whether or not today's options traders win on their transactions, they can rest easy knowing they scooped up their front-month bets on the cheap, relatively speaking. Sanofi SA's (ADR) (NYSE:SNY) Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 20% rests below 91% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. In simpler terms, modest volatility expectations are currently being priced in to short-term SNY options.

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Published on Dec 21, 2016 at 2:25 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stock Market News
Telecom stock Nokia Corp (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) is down 2.4% today at $4.78, amid news the company is suing Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) for patent infringement. While NOK shares have recovered some ground since their November low of $4.04, they remain nearly 32% lower year-to-date, with the $5 level stepping up as resistance of late. Today's price action is unfortunate for options traders, who have been placing bullish bets at an unusual pace in recent weeks. 

Specifically, NOK boasts a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 13.67 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This means nearly 14 call options have been bought to open for every put during the past two weeks. What's more, NOK has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.25, revealing call open interest quadruples put open interest among options expiring within three months. This SOIR is only 5 percentage points from a 12-month low, so this heavy call-skew is beyond what's normally seen. 

This bias is carrying over into today's trading. By the numbers, NOK calls are trading at 1.5 times the intraday norm, and outpacing puts by a more than 4-to-1 margin. The January 2017 5-strike call is the most popular option overall, and if traders are buying to open positions, they're betting on the stock climbing atop $5 in the weeks ahead. 

There's also some bullish sentiment lingering in the analyst community. For instance, five brokerage firms rate the stock a "strong buy" -- though seven others call it either a "hold" or a "sell." Plus, NOK's average 12-month price target stands at $5.64, which is an 18% premium to current levels. 

Of course, Nokia Corp's (ADR) (NYSE:NOK) struggles on the charts go back farther than this year. The shares have been falling fast since peaking in the $8.70 area back in late 2014. Suffice it to say, an unwinding of the optimism in the options pits, or another round of bearish analyst attention, could weigh on the stock even more. 

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Published on Dec 21, 2016 at 3:29 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • By the Numbers
Like most other sectors, retail has been hot since the election, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) barreling through chart congestion to hit a fresh annual high of $48.26 on Dec. 8. Of the 65 stocks under our "retail" umbrella, 60% are trading north of their 80-day moving averages, yet short interest remains elevated, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Against this backdrop, we're taking a look at two retail names that could outperform after Christmas -- if history is any indicator -- and spook the shorts: Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG) and American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO).

SIG has moved higher the week after Christmas in seven of the past eight years -- a record beat by only one other stock -- averaging a gain of 1.14%. Since touching a two-year low of $72.65 in late September, the shares of SIG have rallied more than 30% to sit at $94.76, breaking out of a channel of lower highs that started late last year. What's more, SIG recently overtook its 200-day moving average, and is attempting to climb back above the formerly supportive $95 area.


SIG chart Dec 21


Seeing as SIG has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 21 percentage points in the last 60 sessions, it's not surprising to find shorts already hitting the exits. Short interest depleted by 18.2% during the past two reporting periods, yet still accounts for more than 21% of SIG's total available float. In fact, it would take nearly six days to buy back the rest of these bearish bets, at the stock's average pace of trading -- plenty of fuel for more upside.

Some of those shorts may be scooping up options insurance, though. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 11.38 is just 2 percentage points from an annual peak. In other words, Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG) option buyers have scooped up calls over puts at a much faster clip than usual during the past two weeks.

AEO, on the other hand, hasn't enjoyed the so-called "Trump rally" as much as its peers. The stock was chugging higher after the election, and bumped up against familiar resistance in the $19 area, only to be drop-kicked by an ugly same-store sales forecast on Nov. 30. A valiant recovery effort was made in early December, but the shares have ultimately lost steam to test familiar support in the $16-$16.50 neighborhood.

AEO Dec 21



However, like SIG, AEO tends to do well in the week after Christmas. The stock has ended the week higher in eight of the past 10 years, averaging a gain of 1.24%.

Wall Street, though, isn't optimistic. The stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 3.43 indicates more than three AEO puts have been bought to open for every call during the past two weeks. Plus, this ratio is in the 79th percentile of its annual range. Likewise, AEO sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.17 -- higher than 90% of all other readings from the past year, indicating near-term option players have rarely been so put-skewed.

Meanwhile, short interest represents 23.3% of American Eagle Outfitters' (NYSE:AEO) total available float. At the stock's average daily trading volume, it would take more than a week to repurchase these pessimistic positions. Should AEO enjoy its typical post-Christmas rally, a sharp move north could spook the lingering shorts.

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Published on Dec 21, 2016 at 3:35 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are down, as the Dow backs down from the 20,000 level. Among specific equities in focus today are biotech stocks Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:INO), Calithera Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:CALA), and Merus NV (NASDAQ:MRUS). Here's a quick look at what's moving INO, CALA, and MRUS.

  • INO is up 4.8% at $7.26, after the biotech reported promising results from a Phase 1 study of its Zika vaccine. INO shares are still down 38% since their April highs, pressured lower by their 10-week and 20-week moving averages. Short sellers may be sweating today, with shorted shares accounting for 18.6% of INO's float. It would take traders 13.6 days to cover all of these shorted shares, at Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc's average daily volume.

  • CALA is up 18% at $3.60 -- one of the top performers on the Nasdaq today -- on news that the firm is joining forces with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY) for a clinical trial collaboration of BMY's Opdivo and CALA's CB-839 in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Calithera Biosciences Inc shares have spent much of the past few months churning in the $3-$3.75 range, but hit a six-month high at their intraday peak.
  • MRUS is also among the top performing Nasdaq stocks, up 47.3% at $20.84, after announcing a collaboration to develop antibody research programs with Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ:INCY). Merus NV shares are up 187% since bottoming out in late June, and the Wall Street freshman touched an all-time high of $22.19 earlier today. The stock is also enjoying a lift from some positive analyst attention, with Wedbush doubling its price target to $32 from $16.  MRUS short sellers are likely kicking rocks, with short interest up 17.5% over the last reporting period, and accounting for 9.8 times MRUS' average daily trading volume.
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Published on Dec 22, 2016 at 9:23 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on electric car maker Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), semiconductor stock Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), and Dow component Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on TSLA, MU, and NKE.

  • TSLA received an upgrade to "buy" at CrispIdea Research, which also raised its price target on the stock to $219 from $179. The firm cited strong performance in the third quarter, but also noted that "cash flow expectations remain volatile," and added, "We will however still keep our antennas up on deliveries, FCF and cost containment." Tesla Motors Inc has given back 13.5% year-to-date at $207.70. And despite a recent rebound, the stock seems to be hitting a wall at the overhead $210 mark. Not to mention, with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 66, TSLA is on the verge of being overbought, suggesting a breather could be just around the corner.

  • An upbeat quarterly earnings report has MU soaring 12.5% ahead of the bell, on pace to tap a new annual high at the open. The stock also saw its rating raised to "buy" at Summit Redstone and Needham, while no fewer than 13 brokerage firms increased their price targets on Micron Technology, Inc. The shares have been shooting higher since May, and at $20.58, have more than doubled from their January low. Today's potential pop appears to be just what recent options traders have been hoping for. Across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have purchased more than four MU calls for each put over the past 10 weeks -- yielding a call/put volume ratio that ranks higher than 82% of the last year's readings.

  • NKE is getting another boost from the brokerage bunch today, set to add 0.6% at the open after Guggenheim added the stock to its "Best Idea" list, replacing Amazon.com, Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN). The brokerage cited expectations for strong revenue and gross margin growth in 2017. Closing last night at $52.30, Nike Inc has found solid support above the round $50 level, as well as the ascending 160-week moving average. There is still plenty of room for analyst upgrades to lift the shares further. At present, more than half of the firms following NKE maintain a rating of "hold" or worse.
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Published on Dec 22, 2016 at 9:26 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stock futures are hovering near breakeven this morning, despite a better-than-expected reading on third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Among specific equities in the spotlight today are drug stocks XOMA Corp (NASDAQ:XOMA) and OvaScience Inc (NASDAQ:OVAS), as well as search specialist Baidu Inc (ADR) (NASDAQ:BIDU). Here's a quick look at what's driving XOMA, OVAS, and BIDU.

  • XOMA is up 16% in pre-market trading, amid news the company has named Jim Neal as its CEO, cut 57 jobs, and agreed to two royalty interest acquisitions with Healthcare Royalty Partners II. This would be a rare upside move for a stock that's been crushed in 2016, with the shares sliding almost 80% to trade at $5.50, hitting an all-time low of $4.70 back in October. In the meantime, analysts have taken a mostly wait-and-see approach, with all five covering brokerage firms rating XOMA Corp a "hold." 

  • OVAS is on pace to lose nearly one-third of its value when the market opens, after the company last night announced a major restructuring that includes reducing its workforce by 30%, leading to the departure of its CEO and COO. Like XOMA, OvaScience Inc has performed terribly in 2016, shedding 70% of its value and hitting record lows earlier this month, before settling Wednesday at $2.97. Short sellers have evidently been cashing in amid the stock's decline, too, as short interest on OVAS has been falling steadily since peaking in October 2015. Still, 15% of the equity's float remains wrapped up in short interest. 

  • News that BIDU could be planning an initial public offering (IPO) for iQiyi.com, its streaming video site, has the stock pointed 1% lower in electronic trading. At $163.92, the shares have underperformed in recent weeks, falling since their near-term peak of $197.80 from late September. Short-term options traders have thus taken a put-skewed stance. This is according to Baidu Inc's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.21, which ranks in the 93rd percentile of its annual range. 

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Published on Dec 22, 2016 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Indexes and ETFs
Nearly 150,000 calls traded on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) on Wednesday -- two times the average daily pace, and in the 98th annual percentile. Almost all of the option activity centered at TLT's February 126 call, where several large blocks crossed in mid-afternoon trading. Most notably was a 68,088-contract block that was bought to open for an initial cash outlay of roughly $2.9 million (number of contracts * $0.43 premium paid * 100 shares per contract). In other words, this option trader is betting on a big bounce for Treasury bonds, which have suffered amid the stock market's post-election surge.

More broadly, options traders have been buying to open TLT calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the exchange-traded fund's (ETF) 50-day call/put volume ratio of 0.92 ranks in the elevated 83rd percentile of its annual range.

And with the February 126 call now home to TLT's top open interest position -- with more than 107,000 contracts outstanding -- its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.99 sits below 82% of all comparable readings taken in the past 12 months. Simply stated, short-term speculators are more call-heavy than usual toward the bond ETF.

However, it's certainly possible that traders purchasing out-of-the-money calls are actually short sellers looking to hedge their bearish bond bets against any unexpected upside. Short interest on TLT surged 18% in the most recent reporting period, and with 16.1 million shares sold short, these bearish bets are at their loftiest perch since mid-January.

Regardless, now appears to be an opportune time for bargain-hunting options buyers to strike TLT. Specifically, the ETF's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 13% registers in the 23rd annual percentile -- suggesting low volatility expectations are currently priced into TLT's near-term options.

On the charts, shares of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) have been spiraling since topping out at a July 8 record peak of $143.62. More recently, these losses have been exacerbated amid the broad-market Trump rally, with TLT down 9.6% from its Nov. 8 close at $130.09 -- and fresh off last Friday's annual low of $116.80. This negative price action is continuing this morning, with the bond ETF down 0.4% at $117.60.

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