Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Dec 12, 2016 at 9:31 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stock futures are trading below fair value this morning, despite a huge rally in oil prices. Among specific equities in focus today are biotech stocks Ophthotech Corp (NASDAQ:OPHT), Achaogen Inc (NASDAQ:AKAO), and Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN). Here's a quick look at what's driving OPHT, AKAO, and ALXN.

  • OPHT is looking at an 82% sell-off when the market opens, after the company's vision-loss treatment failed to reach its goals in two phase 3 trials. The shares will now open in all-time-low territory below the $7 mark. For reference, Ophthotech Corp started the year near the $80, and closed Friday at $38.77. So far SunTrust Robinson weighed in with a downgrade to "hold" from "buy," and a price-target cut to $7 from $100, while Chardan Capital lowered its rating to "neutral" from "buy." More bearish analyst notes now seem likely, since all nine brokerage firms covering the stock considered it a "buy" or "strong buy" as of Friday's close. 
  • News that its primary antibiotic, plazomicin, succeeded in two keys studies has shares of AKAO up 43.1% in pre-market trading. The drug company now plans to submit marketing materials to U.S. and European regulators late next year and early 2018. The pending move would put the stock at an annual high, after closing Friday slightly below its year-to-date breakeven point at $5.25. Short-term options traders, however, appear ill-prepared for such a move. Achaogen Inc's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.70 is a 12-month high, meaning options traders targeting contracts expiring within three months are the most put-skewed they've been in a year. 
  • ALXN is set to drop over 13% this morning, following news the company's CEO and CFO have stepped down amid its internal accounting probe. David Brennan will take over as interim CEO, while David Anderson will step in as CFO. At $132.07, ALXN had shed almost 31% in 2016, but it seems a number of short sellers will miss today's slide. For instance, short interest on Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. declined by 19.4% during the last two reporting periods. 

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Published on Dec 12, 2016 at 9:43 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • By the Numbers
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) notched its sixth straight daily win last Friday -- a first for the broad-market barometer since June 2014. With the SPX also fresh off a record closing high, stocks are trading lower this morning as oil prices skyrocket -- while history suggests a seventh consecutive positive day for the S&P is rare. In fact, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the S&P 500 Index has been positive just 25% of the time on the seventh day following a six-day winning streak since the 2009 bottom, and has averaged a loss of 0.2%.

The action has historically been pretty choppy going forward, too, per the chart below. Looking out one week after the S&P 500's six-day win streak, the index has averaged a return of 0.6%, and has been positive three-quarters of the time. This is better than the SPX one-week average anytime return of 0.3%, and "percent positive" of 59.6%.

Since 2009, the SPX has historically left its post-streak outperformance at one week, though. Specifically, when looking at the two-week return, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has averaged a gain of 0.3%, versus an anytime return of 0.6% -- although the index is positive 68.8% of the time post-streak, versus 62.2% anytime. This historical underperformance is even more notable at one month, when the SPX has averaged a post-streak return of just 0.03%, versus an anytime return of 1.2%.

spx returns after six days up

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Published on Dec 12, 2016 at 9:57 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on tech stock Synaptics, Incorporated (NASDAQ:SYNA), drugmaker Depomed Inc (NASDAQ:DEPO), and gold concern Gold Fields Limited (ADR) (NYSE:GFI). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on SYNA, DEPO, and GFI.

  • A downgrade to "underperform" from "perform" at Oppenheimer has SYNA down 2.5% at $54.99 this morning, widening its year-to-date deficit to 31.6%. The brokerage firm explained, "market and customer demands are not in favor of SYNA." The stock has spent the past month running into trouble in the $55-$58 range, which served as support throughout September. Meanwhile pessimism toward the equity has been building. During the most recent two-week reporting period, short interest on Synaptics, Incorporated climbed nearly 27%. These bearish bets now represent 12.6% of SYNA's available float, or more than a week's worth of trading, at the stock's average daily volume. 

  • DEPO saw its rating cut to "underweight" from "neutral" at Piper Jaffray, sending the stock sliding 9% to $18.38 -- and landing it on the short-sale restricted list. Depomed Inc is now up less than 2% in 2016, and testing recent support in the $18.50 region. While options volume on the stock tends to run light on an absolute basis, speculators have been taking an extremely call-skewed approach in recent weeks. Specifically, DEPO's 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) clocks in at a top-heavy 83.52 -- just 5 percentage points from an annual high. 

  • RBC lowered its rating on GFI to "sector perform" from "outperform," but the stock is up 2.1% at $2.96. That said, GFI has been sliding down the charts for months, dropping 55% from its August three-year high of $6.60. In the options pits, call buying remains popular on an absolute basis. And bears may be backing off elsewhere -- short interest on Gold Fields Limited (ADR) dropped by 13% during the most recent reporting period to account for just 0.4% of the stock's total float. 
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Published on Dec 12, 2016 at 11:05 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
Aerospace issue Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:LMT) is just the latest stock moving on a tweet from President-elect Donald Trump. Specifically, Trump took to Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) to say LMT's "F-35 program and cost is out of control" -- echoing last week's critical tweet of Boeing Co's (NYSE:BA) Air Force One program -- sending LMT stock down 3.8% to trade at $249.55. Amid today's pullback, LMT options volume has exploded to five times the average intraday pace -- with 4,545 puts traded at last check, compared to 4,484 calls.

Today's put-skewed trading just echoes the withstanding trend seen among short-term traders in LMT's options pits, per the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.07. Not only does this show that puts more than double calls among options set to expire in three months or less, but it ranks in the elevated 93rd annual percentile.

However, the SOIR measures a stock's total open interest -- and includes contracts that were both bought and sold. According to the major options exchanges, LMT traders have shown a penchant for short puts in recent weeks. Specifically, speculators at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have sold to open 2.01 puts for each one they've bought over the past 20 sessions.

Outside of the options pits, short interest jumped 35% in the most recent reporting period. Nevertheless, these bearish bets account for just 1% of the LMT's available float -- and the 2.6 million shares sold short are a far cry from the 36.8 million in mid-August. Meanwhile, analysts are mostly upbeat, with the stock seeing seven "strong buy" recommendations, versus four "holds" and not a single "sell."

Looking at the charts, the stock has put in a standout performance in 2016, up almost 15%. Plus, the stock topped out at a record high of $269.90 one week ago. What's more, today's retreat is being contained by Lockheed Martin Corporation's (NYSE:LMT) 80-day moving average -- a trendline that worked as resistance earlier this year, but could now be switching to a more supportive role.

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Published on Dec 12, 2016 at 11:07 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview

Payment processor VeriFone Systems Inc (NYSE:PAY) is due to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the close this evening. Heading into the event, the stock is down 0.2% at $16.42, and options traders seem to be bracing for a post-earnings sell-off. Given PAY's recent post-earnings history, however, that's hardly surprising.

Over the past eight quarters, PAY stock has averaged a one-day swing of 7.8% in either direction the session after earnings, moving higher on four occasions. But the last two quarters saw the stock plunge 16.4% and 24.7% lower in the post-earnings sessions. Perhaps that's why the options market is currently pricing in a hefty 18.2% move for Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the equity's puts are popular today, trading at six times the expected intraday pace, outnumbering calls in the process. In fact, put volume is running in the 98th percentile of its annual range. Buyers of near-term PAY options are likely forking over some hefty premiums today, too, considering the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility is parked at a 12-month high of 78.4%.

Taking a step back, options traders have been picking up PAY puts over calls at an unusual rate in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.84 ranks higher than 77% of all comparable readings taken in the past year.

There's plenty of skepticism outside of the options arena, as well. Short interest on PAY edged up by 7.8% during the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for 9.3% of the security's available float. At average daily trading volumes, it would take about a week for short sellers to cover their bearish positions. Plus, 13 of the 19 analysts tracking PAY rate the stock a lukewarm "hold," with J.P. Morgan Securities lowering its price target to $17 from $20 just this morning.

It's not only the stock's earnings history that has inspired these pessimistic points of view, either. VeriFone Systems Inc (NYSE:PAY) has given up 41% of its value so far in 2016, and has been hitting a series of lower lows since mid-2015. The shares have been slumping under pressure from the 80-day moving average over the past week, but they seem to be holding onto support in the $15-$16 region, which has capped the stock's losses since May 2010.

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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 9:27 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on drug stocks Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) and AstraZeneca plc (ADR) (NYSE:AZN), as well as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ:AVGO). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on BIIB, AZN, and AVGO.

  • BIIB is up 5% ahead of the bell after promising results from a study of the company's Alzheimer's treatment were released late Thursday. The news earned Biogen Inc price target hikes at Baird and Stifel -- to $309 and $298, respectively. The stock is off 5.5% year-to-date at $289.54, but the shares appear to have found a foothold above the historically significant $285 level. Meanwhile, analysts are already largely in BIIB's bullish corner, with 12 out of 16 rating the equity a "buy" or better, and not a single "sell" opinion on the books.

  • AZN is set to tack on 1.5% at the open on news the company will expand its collaboration with Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) on Alzheimer's research. Separately, AZN announced encouraging results on cancer drug Tagrisso. On the brokerage front, Leerink upgraded its rating on AZN to "outperform" from "market perform," even though the stock tapped a three-year low just days ago. In fact, the shares have been falling hard since late September, bringing their 2016 deficit to 22.6%, at $26.27. But that hasn't stopped options traders from picking up bullish bets. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), AstraZeneca plc's top-heavy 10-day call/put volume ratio of 32.33 sits in the 87th percentile of its annual range. 

  • AVGO is on track to notch a new record high at the open, up 6.3% in pre-market trading, after the company reported strong earnings and an upbeat outlook, while also doubling its dividend. While 26 of 27 analysts already recommend buying AVGO shares, at least 11 brokerage firms raised their price targets on the stock, with every one of them setting a target at or above the never-explored $200 mark. B. Riley offered the highest target price of all, at $235 -- a 37.7% premium over last night's close at $170.71. Despite Broadcom Ltd's promising technical setup, there may not be much buying power left on the sidelines to keep the rally alive for long. 
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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 9:42 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stocks are looking to keep their winning streak alive, with the major benchmarks trading higher out of the gate. Among specific equities in focus today are fiber optics specialist Finisar Corporation (NASDAQ:FNSR), cable service provider Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHTR), and casino stock Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN). Here's a quick look at what's driving FNSR, CHTR, and WYNN.

  • FNSR is up 4.4% at $35.64 -- fresh off a five-year high of $36.85 -- after the company announced better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat current-quarter outlook. Plus, Craig-Hallum was one of at least seven brokerage firms to lift its price target, raising its mark to $46 from $34. The shares of Finisar Corporation could be prepared to extend today's upside, too, given how skeptical Wall Street has been toward a stock that's up almost 150% year-to-date. As one example, short interest jumped 31% during the past two reporting periods, and now more than a week's worth of buying power is controlled by these bears, at the average pace of trading. If short sellers begin to cover their losing positions, it could help FNSR rise even more. 
  • CHTR is 0.1% higher at $279.36, after hedge fund manager Chris Hohn said the shares could double or triple in the years ahead -- and thinks Charter Communications, Inc. could eventually be a takeover target for Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ). It's already been a strong year for the stock, after a sharp bounce from its 160-day moving average last month helped guide it to an all-time high of $287.27 just two days ago. Options traders appear to be betting on more upside, too, since call buying has more than tripled put buying during the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). 
  • Casino stocks are set to rebound after getting crushed yesterday, after Macau's government denied it would be setting daily limits on ATM withdrawals -- although limits for each individual transaction will be contained.  WYNN, for example, is trading 4.7% higher at $94.73, although the stock is still well below the $100-$105 range that's limited its upside since April. Analysts don't seem too hopeful, either. Just four of 14 covering brokerage firms currently recommend buying Wynn Resorts, Limited. 

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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 10:01 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on biotech issue Horizon Pharma PLC (NASDAQ:HZNP), retail stock Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc (NYSE:RH), and copy expert Xerox Corp (NYSE:XRX). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on HZNP, RH, and XRX.

  • HZNP is up 1.3% at $15.23, even after Mizuho cut its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "buy," and its slashed its price target to $14 from $30. BMO also lowered its price target on Horizon Pharma PLC, to $24 from $29. The stock seems to be getting a small bounce after surrendering 22.5% on Thursday following ugly drug data, but HZNP short sellers are hoping the sell-off will continue. At the moment, more than 11% of HZNP's available float is wrapped up in these bearish bets. 

  • RH reported third-quarter earnings and revenue above analyst estimates, but a lowered current-quarter outlook on concerns of slower holiday sales has the stock spiraling 16.1% to $32.72. So far Goldman Sachs, Telsey Advisory Group, and UBS have chimed in with price-target cuts, the latter setting the lowest bar, at $37. Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc has given back more than 62% of its value year-over-year, but options traders have been betting on a comeback. Specifically, the stock has seen nearly three calls bought to open for each put over the past 10 weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Moreover, the resulting call/put volume ratio of 2.93 sits in the top quartile of all readings from the last 12 months. 

  • XRX is off 0.4% at $9.48 after a price-target cut to $10 from $11 at J.P. Morgan Securities. Separately, the company's soon-to-be-spun-off Conduent segment said it has entered a credit agreement to purchase international Xerox Corp subsidiaries. XRX has had a choppy year on the charts, lately consolidating around the $9.40 mark. Meanwhile, near-term options trader have been less call-skewed than normal, per the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.69 -- higher than 94% of the past year's readings. What's more, XRX's front-month gamma-weighted SOIR sits at a top-heavy 2.77, indicating put open interest nearly triples call open interest among near-the-money options in the December series. 
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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 10:53 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) is bouncing back following Macau's clarification of its change to ATM withdrawal limits. Specifically, the casino stock has popped 3.3% on heavy volume to trade at $56.47, sparking a flurry of activity in the options arena. Of course, a rebound in the gaming shares may have already been in the cards, considering they settled yesterday with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 33 -- on the verge of oversold territory.

Options traders are likely welcoming the LVS rally with open arms. Calls have been bought to open over puts at a feverish pace in recent weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio is a top-heavy 4.96 -- in the bullishly skewed 88th annual percentile.

It's more of the same today, with calls outstripping puts, and trading at quadruple the usual intraday rate. Moreover, total options volume is currently running in the 99th annual percentile. Most active is the weekly 12/30 60-strike call, with ISE data confirming at least some buy-to-open activity. In other words, the buyers believe LVS will muscle back atop $60 before the year closes out.

However, not everyone's so confident in the gambling stock. Eight of 13 analysts have hit Las Vegas Sands with a "hold" or a "strong sell" rating. Separately, short interest has been falling on the equity, but 11.4 million shares are still sold short.

This skepticism comes despite LVS' impressive long-term performance. Year-to-date, the shares have soared to a nearly 30% gain. From a contrarian perspective, today's resumption of this upward trend could trigger a round of upgrades and/or a continuation in short covering -- potentially bolstering a move higher.

That said, those looking to purchase premium on short-term Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) options are likely to pay a pretty penny. The casino stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is 56%, outranking four-fifths of all readings from the prior year. In other words, higher-than-usual volatility expectations are currently being priced in to front-month options.

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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 11:44 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Stock Market News
The Trump rally rolled on, with the Dow, S&P 500 Index (SPX), and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) all scoring fresh record highs this week -- and the Dow leaving a critical level in the dust. In fact, President-elect Donald Trump's Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) account seemingly served as a puppeteer for the stock market. Specifically, Dow stock Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) took a tumble on Tuesday, after Trump posted a criticizing tweet over the cost of the Air Force One program. Elsewhere, shares of Twitter and Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) made big moves of their own, as Trump's tweet over a potential $50 billion investment from Japan's SoftBank sparked buyout buzz for the two companies.

Outside of Twitter, Trump's comments over drug pricing in Time's "Person of the Year" cover story sent biotechs tumbling on Wednesday -- putting several overloved drug stocks on notice. And while Citron Research called this company "the culprit behind pharmaceutical price gouging" and Puma Biotechnology Inc (NYSE:PBYI) plunged on downbeat drug data, not all news was bad for biotechs. In fact, shares of SAGE Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE) and Neuroderm Ltd (NASDAQ:NDRM) surged on well-received updates for their respective treatments for postpartum depression and Parkinson's disease.

Elsewhere, bank stocks continued to shine in the post-Trump era, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) boasting a 4% week-to-date lead at last check. This positive price action was echoed in Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) -- which started the week off with some love from the brokerage bunch -- and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), with shares of both big banks notching new highs this week. And while regional bank Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF) followed its more well-publicized cohorts higher, this underloved bank stock could be a proverbial diamond in the rough for contrarian traders.

Not to be outdone, tech stocks saw their fair share of action throughout the week, with chipmakers seeing the bulk of the upside. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ:AVGO), for instance, seems set to close out the week at record highs, thanks to a positive earnings reaction. Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) also notched a notable milestone -- before taking an expected breather in Friday's trading. Elsewhere in the tech sector, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) unveiled its first foray into the brick-and-mortar grocery business, rumors swirled over a potential Apple takeover of streaming giant Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) could be facing more legal headaches overseas, and Barron's was quite impressed with Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL). Amid these headlines, "FANG" stocks followed the COMP higher, with all four on pace to log weekly wins.

With markets raging higher, though, several sentiment indicators we follow are reaching extreme levels of optimism. Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White specifically ran the numbers of the massive build in SPX buying climaxes and the recent spike in bullishness among financial advisors, with both signals suggesting near-term headwinds could be on the horizon.

Nevertheless, at last check, the Dow was up 2.4% week-to-date, while the SPX and COMP were boasting week-to-date leads of 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively. What's more, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) continues to outperform, up 5.7% since last Friday's close. Looking ahead, next week could certainly be a volatile one, with the December Fed meeting on tap -- and expectations high that the central bank is poised to pull the trigger on its first interest rate hike in a year.

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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 12:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • By the Numbers
  • Expectational Analysis

The non-air transportation sector has been a strong performer lately, topping our internal Sector Scorecard, with 82% of its 27 components currently above their 80-day moving averages. In fact, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) hit a fresh record high at 9,490.29 today, and is currently up more than 25% in 2016, while the corresponding iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) also tapped an all-time peak this morning, at $171.16, and has brought its 2016 lead to more than 26%. Meanwhile, IYT's top two holdings, FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) and United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS), seem to present attractive opportunities for near-term options buyers.

FDX has added nearly 32% so far this year, rallying hard through the month of November, and hitting a record high of $197.30 on Thursday. But there could be trouble ahead for the stock. After all, FDX has been among the worst performers in December over the last 10 years, losing 2.6% on average, and ending the month positive only 40% of the time. What's more, the stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 75 is well into overbought territory, suggesting a breather may be due. The shares are pulling back slightly today, last seen off 0.5% at $196.17.

Analysts seem to be fairly upbeat toward FDX, with nine out of 15 rating the shares a "strong buy," and not a single "sell" opinion on the books. But traders appear more skeptical. While short interest represents just 1.8% of FDX's total float, these bearish bets climbed by 22.2% during the most recent reporting period. Options traders have been unusually put-heavy toward the stock, too, particularly among options in the front three-months' series. Specifically, FDX holds a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.77 -- an annual high.

But whether it's puts or call, short-term options buyers could be getting a deal. FDX's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22% sits within the bottom third of all readings from the past year, indicating the stock's near-term options are pricing in dampened volatility expectation right now. At the same time, the Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 96 suggests the options market has seriously underpriced FedEx Corporation's (NYSE:FDX) ability to make big moves on the charts over the last 52 weeks.

Turning to UPS, the stock has a similar technical setup to its peer, adding 24% in 2016. The equity is up 0.2% at $119.25 today, and earlier notched a fresh record high at $119.40. However, its 14-day RSI of 79.6 suggests UPS could soon be due for a break.

Analysts appear more pessimistic toward UPS, with 60% rating the shares a "hold" or a "strong sell." And short sellers have been piling on in recent weeks. Specifically, short interest on the stock popped nearly 36% during the most recent reporting period, and the 2.3% of UPS' total float that's shorted would take almost a week to cover, at the stock's typical pace of trading.

On the flip side, options traders are nearing optimistic extremes. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.21 ranks in the bullishly skewed 96th percentile of its 12-month range. And near-term options buyers could also be getting a bargain on United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS), with its SVI of 14% seated in the low 16th percentile of its annual range, and its SVS parked at a healthy 73.

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Published on Dec 9, 2016 at 1:08 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) and American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) are two airlines flying higher today, after releasing November traffic metrics and receiving some positive analyst attention. While optimism seems to rule UAL and AAL's options pits today, it remains to be seen if this pair of stocks will be able to keep up their momentum, or if some short-term turbulence is due.

UAL last night raised its fourth-quarter forecast for profit margin, citing stronger bookings and lower expenses. In response, UAL has received no fewer than three price-target hikes, including a hike to $77 from $71 by Cowen and Company. Meanwhile, AAL also raised its current-quarter unit revenue forecast, and Cowen and Company raised its price target on the airline to $50 from $43. 

Both UAL and AAL options are trading at an accelerated pace today, with calls handily outnumbering puts, as traders bet on higher highs in the near term. More than 16,000 AAL calls have crossed the line so far, compared to just 8,400 puts, while UAL calls outnumber put contracts 5,348 to 3,103. Both stocks have seen apparent buy-to-open action at their most active option today, including one block of 1,499 AAL December 50 calls purchased for $1.07 each. This trader expects AAL to extend its quest for new highs through expiration next Friday.

UAL is up 4% so far today, trading at $75.61 -- a new all-time high -- and AAL has also notched a new annual high, currently up 4.9% at $50.40. Both stocks have more than doubled since their post-Brexit lows, and sit in overbought territory -- suggesting a short-term breather is in the cards. As of last night, AAL sported a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 70, while UAL's RSI was at a lofty 78. In fact, late last month, UAL topped the list of the 40 most overbought stocks and ETFs.

What's more, while the airline sector has the highest percentage of stocks currently trading above their 80-day moving average, at 95%, it's also seen a notable number of stocks that have recently experienced a buying climax. A buying climax is when a stock hits an annual high during the week, only to end the week lower, and could indicate oncoming turbulence in the near term. Against this backdrop, would-be traders ought to take caution before betting on United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) and American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL).

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