Bank stocks have been among the top performers since the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election, further bolstered by expectations of a Fed rate hike next week. One major beneficiary of this trend has been Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB), and based on the stock's options backdrop, traders anticipate future gains for the recent outperformer.

Right now, DB shares are up 7.3% at $17.87, buoyed by a price-target hike at Morgan Stanley to 16.5 euros from 13.9 euros. Fitch also weighed in on German banks, describing them as "stable," but warning of potential pressure on net interest margin due to a rising proportion of low-yielding loans.

As alluded to, options traders have been predominantly bullish toward Deutsche Bank of late. Call open interest ranks just 4 percentage points from an annual peak, while intraday call volume is running in the 99th percentile of its 12-month range. Digging deeper, DB calls are crossing at triple the usual intraday rate, with a sweep of 1,548 contracts at the December 2017 22 strike seemingly bought to open. In other words, this long-term speculator anticipates the shares will topple $22 by next December, reaching territory that hasn't been explored since January.

This trend toward call options has been clear in recent weeks, as well. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), DB has amassed a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.01 -- just 14 percentage points from a 52-week peak.

Elsewhere on the sentiment front, short sellers have been turning tail as the stock's been heating up. In the most recent reporting period alone, short interest plunged 24.2%. However, that still leaves nearly 37 million shares sold short, which would take close to a week to buy back, at DB's average daily volume. In other words, there's more room available for a short-squeeze.

As alluded to previously, Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE:DB) has been picking up the pace of late, despite being a long-term disaster. Specifically, the financial stock bottomed at $11.19 in late September. Since then, shares of the German bank have exploded almost 60% higher, and are on pace to easily top their 50-week moving average for the first time since August 2015.

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We've seen a recent spike in weekly buying climaxes for stocks, with more than 8% of S&P 500 Index (SPX) components hitting a buying climax last week. A buying climax is when a stock hits an annual high during the week, only to end the week lower. Last week's 8% figure marks the highest reading since September, when buying climaxes popped to 10%. At that time, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White ran a study to see if such a spike has historically been a bullish or bearish indicator.

White ran the numbers again today, considering previous instances when buying climaxes met or exceeded 8%. You can see previous signals in the SPX chart below, going back to 2006. The red line represents the 8% level for buying climaxes.

In the tables below, we compared the performance of the SPX after a signal -- that is, when buying climaxes reach 8% -- to the SPX any time, going back to 2010. Based on the 20 previous occurrences, it's safe to say the SPX has tended to underperform after these signals, at least in the short term. For example, the SPX has seen an average one-month return of negative 0.1% after a signal, compared to a one-month anytime return of positive 0.8%.

Longer term, however, things appear to normalize or even improve after a signal. At the one-year mark, the post-signal SPX averaged an 11.4% gain -- slightly higher than the 11% anytime return. What's more, the SPX was positive 95% of the time at one year post-signal, besting the usual 86% positive.

Going back further reveals an even clearer trend. The following tables examine the same data, going back to 2000 -- which encompasses 44 signals. Again, post-signal performance lags over the first month.

But here we see things picking up by the three-month mark, with significant outperformance by one year after the signal. Specifically, the SPX tacked on 8.4% and was positive 91% of the time at one year post-signal, compared to a 5.3% average gain, with 73% positive returns, over any one-year period.

Putting it all together, this data suggests it's likely the SPX could be in for a month or more of below-average returns. Longer term, however, it looks like we could see some outsized gains.

Finally, to break it down a bit further, the table below lists the sectors with the highest percentages of buying climaxes. Just as this signal in the broader market could mean short-term trouble ahead, extreme buying climaxes in individual sectors could indicate a sector is about to roll over. Out of 36 designated sectors with at least 20 stocks each, below are those with the highest percentage of stocks making climaxes last week.

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U.S. stocks are mixed, as traders react to sliding oil and a round of economic data. Among specific equities in focus today are biotech stocks Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:TEVA), SAGE Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SAGE), and Heat Biologics Inc (NASDAQ:HTBX). Here's a quick look at what's moving TEVA, SAGE, and HTBX.

• TEVA is trading 5.9% lower at $34.87 -- a nearly 10-year low -- after the drugmaker announced president and CEO of the global generics division Siggi Olafsson would be stepping down at the end of the year. Some analysts are concerned that this may be indicative of a wider-spread weakness within the company. TEVA currently sits down more than 46% since the beginning of 2016, breaching long-term support in the $35-$36 area -- about half its all-time high. In the option pits, puts are unusually popular today, trading at three times their average intraday rate. Widening the scope, however, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.45 sits at an annual low, indicating near-term option traders haven't been more call-skewed in the past 12 months. 
  
  
• SAGE is up 7.8% at $55.84, after announcing an expedited development plan for its postpartum depression therapy, SAGE-547, with current Phase 3 trials being expanded to move the drug toward a potential 2018 new drug application (NDA). SAGE also received a price-target boost to $84 from $79 from Raymond James. SAGE has added more than 63% in the past six months, but is still in negative territory for the year, down 4.3% in 2016. Though absolute volume remains light, SAGE Therapeutics Inc calls are trading at three times their usual intraday clip, marking a change of pace. Bearish traders have dominated in the past 10 trading days, buying to open more than 16 puts for every call option.
  
  
• HTBX is trading up 5.4% at $1.17, after presenting upbeat results from trials of its lung cancer drug, in combination with Bristol-Myers Squibb Co's (NYSE:BMY) opdivo. HTBX has had a volatile go in 2016, with shares peaking in early January at  $4.71, before losing over 90% of their value and bottoming out in May at just $0.40. However, it looks as though HTBX shares have recently found potential support from their 10-month moving average. Both brokerage firms weighing in remain firmly in Heat Biologics Inc's bullish corner, rating the stock a "strong buy."

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) options are trading at an accelerated clip today, with the semiconductor stock surging to levels not seen in six years. With AMD stock up 9% at $9.47 -- and fresh off $9.54, its highest peak since February 2011 -- more than 138,000 AMD options had changed hands, two times what's typically seen at this point in the day. Helping boost the tech stock is speculation the chipmaker has licensed its graphics technology to Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC). Plus, Loop Capital initiated coverage on AMD stock with a "buy" rating and $11 price target, saying the "smooth sailing" will likely continue, and that "2017 and 2018 will be solid years for AMD."

AMD options traders are apparently betting on more upside, too, at least in the near term. More than 97,000 calls have traded on AMD so far today, with about 13% of the action centered at the weekly 12/9 9-strike call. It seems likely some of the activity at this now in-the-money call is a result of speculators purchasing new positions, meaning they expect AMD stock to extend today's rally through this Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals options traders have shown a growing appetite for long calls over puts in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), AMD's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.51 ranks in the 67th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

With a healthy 12% of AMD's float sold short, it's likely some of this call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- is due to short sellers hedging their bearish bets against any additional upside risk. Regardless, now appears to be a prime time to buy premium on the stock. Specifically, AMD's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 63% ranks in the 18th percentile of its 52-week range, suggesting low volatility expectations are priced into the security's near-term options. Plus, AMD's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is docked at a lofty 95, indicating the options market has historically underpriced the equity's ability to make big moves on the chart over the past year.

Speaking of the equity's technical prowess, today's positive price action is just more of the same for the shares of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD). Year-to-date, in fact, the tech stock has more than tripled in value. And with around 63% of covering analysts still maintaining a "hold" or worse rating on the stock, more bullish brokerage notes could be on the horizon -- which could help propel the shares even higher up the charts.

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Analysts are weighing in on streaming media specialists Pandora Media Inc (NYSE:P) and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), as well as software stock Coupa Software Inc (NASDAQ:COUP). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on P, NFLX, and COUP.

• P is up 3.4% in electronic trading following an upgrade to "outperform" from "perform" at Oppenheimer. The brokerage firm said it sees the company as a legitimate buyout target for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI), with the shares worth as much as $21 apiece. In fact, similar buyout rumors helped Pandora Media Inc surge more than 16% on Friday -- barreling past previous resistance at the 200-day moving average. But the shares are still in negative year-to-date territory, at $13.37, and short sellers have been piling on. Specifically, these bearish bets rose by 23.5% in the last two reporting periods, and now represent 25.7% of P's available float -- or nearly seven sessions' worth of trading, at the equity's average daily pace. 
  
  
• NFLX received an upgrade to "hold" from "sell" at Evercore ISI, which also raised its price target on the stock by $10 to $111, saying previously feared competition has not been gaining traction. Still, this brokerage note has barely been a boon for the stock, which closed last night at $119.16, and is only 0.4% higher ahead of the bell. On the charts, the round $120 level is just overhead, while the underfoot 40-day moving average has been providing support of late. Longer term, Netflix, Inc. got off to a rough start in 2016, but has been muscling its way back in recent months, now up 4.2% year-to-date. Meanwhile near-term options traders have been unusually put-heavy toward the security, per NFLX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.00 -- higher than 77% of the past year's readings. 
  
  
• COUP last night unveiled its first quarterly earnings report since going public in October, posting a slimmer-than-expected loss. The results led JMP and Raymond James to increased their price targets to $31 and $33, respectively, and have put the shares on track to pop 7.1% at the open. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing since Coupa Software Inc's IPO, though, as the stock hasn't come close to matching its highs from its initial trading session, finishing Monday at $26.02. While COUP options haven't been available for long, early speculators have been showing a pronounced preference for puts. Over the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open 414 COUP puts, compared to just 87 calls. 

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U.S. stock futures are signaling a slightly higher open, as traders digest the latest economic data. Among specific equities in focus today are iPhone maker Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), women's health issue TherapeuticsMD Inc (NYSEMKT:TXMD), and shipping stock DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS). Here's a quick look at what's driving AAPL, TXMD, and DRYS.

• AAPL is up 1% in electronic trading, after CEO Tim Cook said the Apple Watch is on pace for its best quarter ever after a record-setting first week of holiday shopping sales. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse reiterated its "outperform" assessment and $150 price target, saying it sees strong earnings for the company through next year's iPhone cycle. Apple Inc. closed Monday at $109.11, down 7.8% since this time last year. In the options pits, traders have been more interested in long puts than normal. Specifically, AAPL's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 0.79, which ranks in the 88th annual percentile. 

• TXMD is eyeing a 20% pop when the market opens, after the company announced positive results for its treatment for vasomotor symptoms in a late-stage study. The shares were in serious need of a boost, as they had lost 40.5% year-to-date to trade at $6.17. Goldman Sachs and Stifel expect more upside, too, raising their respective price targets to $13 and $17. This bullish attention is nothing new for TherapeuticsMD Inc, as all covering brokerage firms recommend buying the stock. 

• DRYS is gaining 7.8% ahead of the open, on reports Morgan Stanley has taken a 6.1% passive stake in the company. It's been a wild 12 months for the stock, which was trading above $400 per share last December, but closed Monday at just $4.60, despite a post-election surge. Options volume on DryShips Inc. has been extremely light on an absolute basis, but the activity that has taken place has centered around calls. By the numbers, 1,142 DRYS call options have been purchased during the past two weeks at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, compared to just 15 puts. 

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Analysts are weighing in on Dow component Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), robotic surgery specialist Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG), and gold stock Royal Gold, Inc (USA) (NASDAQ:RGLD). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on NKE, ISRG, and RGLD.

• NKE is off 2.6% at $50.52 this morning after Cowen and Company downgraded the stock to "market perform" from "outperform," and its cut price target to $54 from $59. The brokerage cited concerns Nike Inc could see accelerated losses to competitors Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) and Germany-based Adidas AG, after its survey found consumer preference for Nike apparel dwindling. NKE has been steadily declining on the charts, giving back more than 23% year-over-year. But options traders seem to be betting on a rebound for the blue-chip stock. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), NKE's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.09 rests 3 percentage points from an annual high. 
  
  
• Leerink slashed its price target on ISRG to $755 from $810 -- still representing all-time-high territory, and a 20.7% premium over current levels. The stock is off 1.8% at $625.55, trimming its year-to-date lead to 14.5%. After spending much of the year rising atop its 80-day moving average, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. peaked at a record high of $727.25 in October, and has since been taking a breather. Meanwhile, the majority of analysts remain in the security's bullish corner, with 11 out of 17 brokerages rating the shares a "buy" or better. 
  
  
• RGLD is shaking of a price-target cut to $86 from $99 at Barclays, up 0.6% at $71.41, even as gold prices continue to slip. Like many of its fellow gold stocks, Royal Gold, Inc (USA) has had a standout year, nearly doubling on the charts, and finding a strong ally in its 200-day moving average, which has stepped up as support in recent weeks. Though options volume on RGLD tends to be light on an absolute basis, speculators have been taking an extremely call-skewed approach of late. Specifically, the stock holds a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 32.77 at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX -- higher than 99% of all comparable readings from the past 12 months. 

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is getting cooked this morning, down 6.5% at $370.42. The technical tumble follows a company presentation in which executives said sales haven't recovered as much as expected from a rash of food-borne illnesses earlier in the year, and revealed same-store sales in October were down about 21%. In fact, CMG execs admitted they are "nervous" about the restaurant chain's 2017 guidance.

Canaccord Genuity weighed in following these revelations, saying, "Chipotle's third-quarter earnings reinforces our thesis that the path to recovery remains slow and the brand has yet to regain credibility with the consumer." As far as investing goes, the brokerage firm put it bluntly: "we believe it's too early to buy the stock."

Today's struggles are more of the same for CMG shares. Relative to the stock's perch this time last year, Chipotle is down 33%. Early last month, in fact, the shares notched a three-year low, before the round $350 level finally stopped the bleeding.

Therefore, it should come as little surprise to see Wall Street stacked against the stock. For example, 17 of 25 analysts rank CMG a "hold" or worse. Separately, short interest swelled 13% during the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for 22.7% of the equity's total float.

On the surface, options traders have broken with that bearish trend. Over the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 16,224 CMG calls versus 12,125 puts. What's more, the resultant call/put volume ratio of 1.24 sits near the top quartile of its annual range. However, given Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s (NYSE:CMG) high levels of short interest, it may be that call buyers are in fact short sellers purchasing upside protection, rather than hoping for a breakout.

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China-based social media stock Weibo Corp (ADR) (NASDAQ:WB) has been soaring up the charts this year, tacking on 136% year-to-date, even with a 3.3% drop to $46 this morning. The shares topped out at an all-time peak of $55.93 in October, and have since pulled back to the 100-day moving average. Despite this technical strength, plenty of skepticism surrounds WB.

While analysts have maintained upbeat outlooks on the stock, traders don't seem to agree. Specifically, short interest represents a hefty 23.3% of WB's available float -- plenty of buying to fuel another run higher as these bears cover their positions. What's more, a piling-on of shorts through most of this year did nothing to slow the shares' rally. In fact, short interest peaked at a record high at roughly the same time as WB stock.

Meanwhile, options traders have shown an unusual preference for bearish bets. Though volume tends to be light, and calls have led on an absolute basis, WB's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.53 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 82% of all comparable readings from the last 12 months.

It could be an attractive time to pick up Weibo Corp (ADR) (NASDAQ:WB) options, too. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 59% sits in the moderate 42nd percentile of its annual range, suggesting the equity's short-term options are pricing in below-average volatility expectations at the moment. But more compelling yet is WB's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which rests at a high 91. Simply stated, this means the options market has tended to seriously underprice the stock's ability to make outsized moves over the past year.

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Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) is having a rough year on the charts, and the athletic apparel retailer is due to report earnings tomorrow. Ahead of the event, option traders are eyeing the round $50 level for the shares of the worst-performing Dow component of 2016.

NKE is down 0.4% at $50.71 today, bringing its year-to-date loss to 18.9% -- the worst among all blue chips by a landslide. Currently, The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) is the only other Dow stock on pace for a year-to-date loss. However, NKE may have found a foothold at the round $50 region -- representing a 20% year-to-date decline for NKE shares -- which has acted as support over the last two months. 

Today in NKE's option pits, puts are trading at at twice their average intraday rate, with about 12,400 contracts exchanged -- on pace for the 91st percentile of its annual range. Drilling down, the January 2017 50-strike put is among the most active, and is already NKE's top open interest position, with more than 32,000 contracts outstanding. What's more, the January 2017 and weekly 12/23 50-strike put options have seen the most open interest added over the past two weeks. This heavy put activity and open interest located at the $50 level could act as an added layer of options-related support in the short term.

Against this backdrop, NKE's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.21 sits in the elevated 92nd percentile of its annual range, indicating near-term NKE option players have been especially put-skewed as of late. In addition, five of NKE's top 10 open interest positions are front-month puts.

Looking ahead at tomorrow's earnings report, NKE option players are pricing in a single-session swing of 7% in either direction. Over the past eight quarters, NKE shares have averaged a one-day post-earnings move of 4.1%, finishing in the red about half the time, so it looks like recent option players are betting on a bigger-than-usual earnings reaction out of the shares. If option traders' predictions pan out, a 7% fall could put Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) well below the layers of support at the $50 mark, and in territory not charted since early 2015.

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The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume among mid-cap names during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are homebuilder stocks Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) and KB Home (NYSE:KBH), after sector peer Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) delivered strong quarterly earnings. Here's a closer look at how options traders are lining up on TOL and KBH.

Options traders have been unusually bearish toward TOL in recent weeks. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) comes in at 1.40, which ranks in the 83rd annual percentile, revealing put buying has been more popular than normal. 

But while the bearish bias has been growing among speculators, it's been dwindling elsewhere. Specifically, short interest on TOL declined by nearly 18% during the most recent reporting period. The stock's short-interest ratio now sits at a modest 2.70. Plus, 60% of analysts strongly recommend buying the stock, and zero have issued a "sell" rating -- while Barron's has extremely high hopes for 2017. 

Looking at the charts, shares of TOL have been fighting back after a forgettable start to the year. The stock has managed a series of higher highs and lows since February, but could struggle as it approaches the year-to-date breakeven level, as well as its long-term 36-month moving average. At last check, TOL was up 1.7% at $32.14. 

Options traders have been even more bearish on KBH. The stock has posted a put/call volume ratio of 5.42 during the past two weeks, putting it just 11 percentage points from a 12-month high. Not to mention, the equity has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 5.34, which ranks in the 97th annual percentile. This tells us that traders targeting options expiring within three months are way more put-skewed than normal right now. 

Looking closer at KBH's options activity, the 10 largest open interest positions are all puts. The January 2017 16-strike put saw the largest increase in open interest during the past two weeks, and data from the major options exchanges confirms substantial buy-to-open activity. In other words, traders are betting on the shares breaching the $16 level in the weeks ahead.

This skepticism is rather surprising, given the stock's performance on the charts this year. KBH has climbed 34% in 2016 to trade at $16.56, with the rising 200-day moving average stepping up as support during a recent pullback. Considering the bearish tilt among options traders, and the fact that 11 of 13 analysts say to hold or sell the stock, KBH has all the makings of a bullish contrarian play. 

For prospective traders, now appears to be a good time to target either stock's short-term options. For instance, Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) has a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 26%, which ranks in the 14th annual percentile, while KB Home's (NYSE:KBH) SVI of 37% ranks in the 26th percentile of its annual range. In short, the options market is currently pricing in low volatility expectations on short-term contracts for TOL and KBH. 

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Shares of Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) are selling off today, after the fertilizer firm announced a $2.5 billion M&A deal with sector peer Vale SA (ADR) (NYSE:VALE). At last check, MOS stock was trading down 6.4% at $27.67, and put volume is accelerated. Specifically, 6,616 MOS puts have traded so far -- two times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and outstripping the number of calls on the tape.

Today's faster-than-usual put volume just echoes the withstanding trend seen in MOS' options pits, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.09 ranks in the 86th annual percentile. Simply stated, puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-typical pace in recent months.

This skepticism is seen outside of the options pits, too. Although short interest is down nearly 19% since hitting a record peak in mid-October, it still accounts for a healthy 10.7% of the equity's available float -- or 8.2 times the average pace of trading. Plus, 12 of 13 analysts maintain a "hold" or worse rating, while the average 12-month price target of $26.26 stands at a discount to current trading levels.

Granted, the stock has done little on the charts to warrant optimism from traders and analysts. In fact, MOS has repeatedly run into resistance from the overhead $31 mark, and despite hitting an annual high of $31.54 as recently as Dec. 9, the shares are up just 0.5% on the year. Plus, today's sell-off has brought Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) back below its 320-day moving average -- a trendline that contained the stock in the first half of 2015, but which MOS had previously managed to trade north of in December.

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