Stocks futures are pointing to a lower open today on Wall Street. Among specific stocks in focus today are specialty drug company Zynerba Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ZYNE), tech name BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY), and organic foods manufacturer Hain Celestial Group Inc (NASDAQ:HAIN). Here's a closer look at what's moving shares of ZYNE, BBRY, and HAIN. 

Drug Results Have Zynerba Soaring

Zynerba Pharmaceuticals stock is up 68.3% at $10.42 after the company's cannabis-based gel met its goals in a mid-stage study. This comes just a month the stock gapped lower on disappointing drug-study results, with ZYNE shares hitting an annual low of $5.42 on Aug. 14.

A number of short sellers apparently saw the writing on the wall and got out of dodge. For example, short interest on Zynerga declined by 32.1% in the last two reporting periods, but more than one-fifth of the equity's float is still controlled by these bears. 

BlackBerry Shines in Earnings Spotlight

BlackBerry this morning reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its full-year sales outlook, sending the shares 12.4% higher to $10.38 It's been a huge year for the stock, which was already up 34% year-to-date as of last night's close. Considering the fundamental and technical strength, it would seem BBRY could be in store for bullish notes from the brokerage bunch. At the moment, just one of seven analysts say to buy the security, and today's pending price action would put the shares above their average 12-month price target of $9.74. 

HAIN Stock Set to Rally on Board Change

Hain Celestial stock is up 5% at $42.40 thanks to news the company has come to an agreement with activist investor Engaged Capital to overhaul its board, opening the door for a sale of the company down the road. HAIN shares have been bouncing around the charts in 2017, but are currently holding on to a slim year-to-date lead. 

In the meantime, call buyers have been blasting the stock. Its 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at a brow-raising 10.82, which marks a 52-week peak. 

Analysts are weighing in on pharmaceutical products specialist Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), social media powerhouse Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), and tobacco giant Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on shares of ABT, FB, and PM.

FDA Approval Sparks Bullish Notes for ABT

Barclays raised its price target on ABT to $60 from $57, alongside Wells Fargo, which raised its price target to $64 from $57. These bullish notes follow last night's FDA approval of Abbott's Freestyle Libre Flash glucose monitoring system. ABT stock opened more than 4% higher this morning, setting a new record high of $54.77 out of the gate.

Amid ABT's recent rally to new highs, options players have been loading up on plunge protection. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock sports a 10-day put/call ratio of 1.01, which ranks in the 81st percentile of its annual range. This suggests puts have been purchased over calls at a faster-than-usual clip over the past couple of weeks.

Deutsche Bank Raises FB Outlook on Ad Optimism

As the social media site takes on an increasingly high-profile role in congressional Russia probes, Deutsche Bank raised its FB price target to $220 from $215, and simultaneously upped its forecast for third-quarter and full-year ad revenue growth. At last check, FB is up 0.2% at $167.93, extending this week's bounce from its 80-day moving average.

Most analysts are already quite optimistic towards Facebook shares. Among the 24 brokerage firms following FB, 23 maintain "buy" or better ratings.

Goldman Predicts Forex Tailwinds for PM

Goldman Sachs added Philip Morris to its conviction list, with a "buy" rating and a price-target hike to $135 from $133. In a note to clients, analyst Judy Hong said the U.S. dollar's recent softening against key rivals is expected to be "a modest tailwind" for PM and a number of other multinational staples companies in 2018.

PM is up 0.3% at $111.96 this morning, moving higher after a recent meet-up with its 40-week moving average. However, options traders are looking for the tobacco stock to pull back. At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, PM has racked up a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.73, which ranks in the 92nd percentile of its annual range. In other words, speculators have rarely shown a stronger preference for bearish bets over bullish.

Analysts are weighing in on home goods retailer Pier 1 Imports Inc (NYSE:PIR), medical device maker DexCom, Inc. (NASDAQ:DXCM), and travel site Trivago NV (NASDAQ:TRVG). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on shares of PIR, DXCM, and TRVG.

Pier 1 Imports Plunges After Cutting Guidance

Pier 1 Imports cut its full-year earnings and same-store sales estimates, overshadowing a stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings report. As a result, Loop Capital downgraded the retail stock to "hold" from "buy," while issuing a price-target cut to $4 from $8. No fewer than four other analysts also cut their price targets, including Credit Suisse, which trimmed its target to $3.50 from $4. PIR stock is currently down 9.3% to trade at $4.08, and has now shed 52% in 2017.

Optimism appears to have been wrung out of the analyst crowd. Of the 12 brokerages covering PIR, 11 already rate the stock a "hold" or worse.

DXCM Stock Tanking After Rival FDA Nod

DexCom stock is down 35.3% to trade at $43.64, and earlier touched a new two-year low of $43.53, after rival Abbott Laboratories (ABT) received approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its blood glucose monitoring device. The news resulted in a DXCM downgrade from J.P. Morgan Securities to "neutral" from "overweight," as well as no fewer than seven price-target cuts, including to $60 from $76 at Barclays.

While DXCM is on the short-sale restricted list today -- and is the steepest percentage loser on the Nasdaq so far -- several shorts are likely cheering. Short interest grew 14.8% during the last two reporting periods, to 12.55 million shares -- 15% of the stock's available float.

Analyst Downgrade Grounding Trivago Stock

Trivago stock is down 1% to trade at $10.85, after Morgan Stanley downgraded the shares to "equal weight" from "overweight," and slashed its price target to $12 from $22. Just yesterday, J.P. Morgan Securities downgraded the travel stock to "neutral" from "overweight," while issuing a price-target cut to $14 from $16. After offering weak guidance earlier this month, TRVG shares fell to a record low of $10.43, and have been range-bound in the $10.50-$11.50 region ever since.

Options traders have been flocking to puts. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), TRVG sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 4.59.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is pacing toward a rare September win -- and heading into the historically positive month of October. And while the airline sector features some of the best SPX stocks to own next month, oil-and-gas name Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) has been one of the worst stocks on the S&P over the past 10 years. With the energy stock trading near a potential resistance and short-term options attractively priced, it might be a good time to buy puts on CHK.

CHK Stock Heads Into Tough Month Trading Near Resistance

According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Chesapeake shares have averaged a monthly loss of 3.77% in the last decade, finishing October in positive territory just four times. This would be more of the same for a stock that's down 37.6% year-to-date.

More recently, the shares have been rebounding since bottoming at an annual low of $3.56. But while the stock was last seen trading down 1% at $4.38 -- despite rising oil prices -- it's running out of steam in the $4.40-$4.50 region. This neighborhood is home to familiar resistance at its 80-day moving average, and a trendline connecting a series of lower highs since April.

Increased Short Selling Could Turn Up the Heat on Chesapeake Energy

Part of Chesapeake's longer-term technical troubles have likely been due to a steady influx of short selling this year. Since the start of 2017, short interest on CHK stock has nearly doubled to 199.87 million shares -- 22.75% of the equity's available float. With bears firmly in control, the security could continue to struggle, should short sellers keep increasing their exposure to the stock.

Meanwhile, two volatility indicators we track suggest low expectations are being priced into CHK stock's short-term options -- a potential boon to premium buyers. While the security's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 48.5% ranks lower than 90% of all comparable readings taken in the past year, its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48% is docked in the 6th annual percentile.

U.S. stocks are pulling back this morning as the dollar weakens. Among specific stocks in focus today are social media site Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), as well as biotech stocks Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:ICPT) and NewLink Genetics Corp (NASDAQ:NLNK). Here's a closer look at what's moving shares of FB, ICPT, and NLNK. 

FB Shares Dip on Stock Plan Update

Facebook stock is down 0.6% at $169.48, after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced he's dropping the company's plan to issue a new class of stock. Zuckerberg said FB's share price has appreciated enough that he can sell a large chunk of his stock to fund his philanthropic efforts while maintaining control of the company. The equity has gained over 31% in the past year, and could now be finding support atop its 50-day moving average. 

Meanwhile, short interest has been grinding higher on the security since hitting a record low in March. In the last reporting period alone, short interest rose almost 6% -- though these bearish bets still account for less than 1% of the total float. 

Intercept Replies to FDA Warning

Intercept Pharmaceuticals stock is up 7.2% at $66, after the company responded to the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) warning of its liver drug, Ocaliva, saying it's taking steps to make sure the drug is prescribed and used properly. The shares still have plenty of ground to make up, though, as they were trading near $135 as recently as the end of July. Year-over-year, they're down over 63%. 

Most analysts are bullish on the stock, however. Specifically, ICPT has 10 "buy" or better ratings, versus five "hold" or worse recommendations. More telling still, the shares have an average 12-month price target of $157.76. 

NewLink Genetics Teams Up with AstraZeneca 

Shares of NewLink Genetics are up 6% at $11.65, after the company announced a clinical collaboration with AstraZeneca. NLNK stock has been all over the charts in 2017, trading as high as $25.16, with a year-to-date low of $5.90. Overall, the security is clinging to a small year-to-date lead. 

Plenty of traders foresee a pullback from NewLink Genetics, though. Short interest has been rising rapidly for months, and now more than 28% of the stock's float is sold short. Going by average daily volumes, this equates to almost 12 days' worth of buying power. 

Analysts are weighing in on healthcare stocks Quest Diagnostics Inc (NYSE:DGX) and Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC), as well as clothing designer VF Corp (NYSE:VFC). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on shares of DGX, THC, and VFC.

Raymond James Downgrades Quest Diagnostics Stock

Quest Diagnostics shares are down 7.1% out of the gate at $94.89, after Raymond James downgraded its outlook to "market perform" from "outperform," with the brokerage firm skeptical of new payment rates from the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Additionally, Canaccord Genuity says it sees DGX as one of the "losers" of the proposed 2018 Medicare reimbursement fees (subscription required) for the Protecting Access to Medicare Act (PAMA).

Since topping out at a record high of $112.96 on July 3, shares of the diagnostic testing name have been trending lower. Today's downside has the stock on track to breach the century mark for the first time since a late-April bull gap.

This could have some options traders scrambling. The October 100 strike is currently home to peak put open interest, and data from Trade-Alert indicates the bulk of the activity came at the hands of put writers.

RBC Lowers THC Stock Price Target

Ahead of this week's latest -- and possibly final -- attempt by Republicans to repeal Obamacare, Tenet Healthcare saw its price target cut to $19 from $25 at RBC. This still represents expected upside of 16.4% to last Friday's close at $16.32, though shares of THC are trading down 0.7% this morning at $16.21. 

The stock has been a long-term underperformer, though, down 26% year-over-year -- even following a recent M&A-related boost. Some of this downside has likely been a result of increased selling pressure from shorts, with short interest more than quadrupling over the past 12 months to 33.86 million shares -- a record high amount for the hospital stock.

KeyBanc Cites 'Tactical Opportunities' for VFC Downgrade

VFC stock is down nearly 0.5% this morning at $61.84. Weighing on the retail shares is a downgrade to "sector weight" at KeyBanc Capital Markets, citing "tactical opportunities" -- particularly with rival Under Armour.

Nevertheless, it's been a pretty strong run for the shares, which are up more than 21% since skimming the $51 in mid-May. Plus, a recent pullback from the stock's Sept. 6 annual high of $64.51 found support from the 50-day moving average, a trendline that kept a lid on the shares in May.

Short sellers have been hitting the bricks amid this upside, too. Short interest fell 15.1% in the two most recent reporting periods to 21.75 million shares. This represents a low 5.5% of VFC's available float. 

The following is a reprint of the market commentary from the October 2017 edition of The Option Advisor, published on September 22. For more information, or to subscribe to The Option Advisor -- featuring 10 new option trades each month --  visit our online store.

It was just a couple of months ago in this space that we touched on the predictive powers of the group of investors known in the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) reports as "large speculators." This subset of investors is broadly comprised of fund traders and professional traders, and their collective uncanny knack for mistiming major volatility moves has made them a favorite contrarian indicator of our Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone. More often than not, when CoT large speculators are net short CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) futures in the extreme, the VIX has been more prone than usual to big spikes. And conversely, on the rare occasions this group goes net long VIX futures, we've seen volatility retreat.

With this "comedy of errors"-type track record in mind, it was with some interest that we registered a couple of apparent extremes in large speculators' currency posturing in the CoT report released last Friday, Sept. 15. Specifically, this marked the eighth consecutive week of large speculators being net short the U.S. dollar, while the net long position on the euro is approaching decade-plus extremes. On the surface, this diverging sentiment on the two currencies is simply the extension of a "pro-Europe, anti-U.S." investment trend we've been clocking for some time. But under the surface, it's worth questioning whether the current CoT large speculator positioning is sending up any tradable contrarian flags for these two dominant currencies.

To that end, Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal sifted through our roughly 31 years of CoT data to find some answers. Looking back at dollar returns following previous stretches of eight weeks or more with large speculators in a net short position, there are 26 prior instances to consider -- but not much to go on, in terms of actionable short-term trading takeaways. Following one of these signals, the greenback's average returns lag its comparable "anytime" returns over most time frames, aside from notable outperformance over a year's worth of trading days (+0.9% vs. -0.1%).

So if history holds up, we may see the dollar lag a bit in the immediate weeks and months ahead -- but the below chart serves to reinforce the notion that longer-term gains may be on the horizon. This graph shows the USD net short position among CoT large speculators as a percentage of all positions. Currently, it's at 52% of the total, having moved above the 50% threshold in late July for the first time since June 2014. As you can see, previous moves above this 50% threshold have preceded ramps higher in the dollar's value, with the 2014-2016 greenback surge standing out as particularly eye-catching.

Formal trading of the euro began at the start of January 1999, at a value of $1.1743 in dollar terms -- a price point that could be viewed as tantamount to a stock's IPO price, as it may represent a breakeven level for many long-term investors. The euro's "IPO price" has notably marked the November 2005 low and August 2015 high, and the common currency wrapped up the month of July 2017 by crossing above this level again, following a roughly two-and-a-half year stretch below it.

CoT large speculators currently maintain a net long position of 91,270 contracts on the euro, just off the 10-year high of 100,437 contracts set the week prior. And while the current level of net long euro exposure is inarguably massive, it's worth mentioning that earlier in 2007, peak net long euro positioning among large speculators topped out at 119,538 contracts. So, while this contingent is extremely net long at the moment, there's still room for this trade to get even more crowded.

That said, below is a table summarizing euro returns following previous instances where the net long position among CoT large speculators has climbed above the 50,000 mark. After correcting for redundant signals, we have just 10 occurrences since 1999 -- but the average returns and percentage of positive returns indicate significant outperformance, relative to "anytime" results, over time frames from 10 days to two months following a signal.

Over longer time frames, though, the degree of outperformance dwindles (a trend that's been particularly pronounced in the post-financial crisis era, when viewing the individual signals). And once we get to a full year's worth of trading days after a signal, the euro averages a decline of 3.7%, with only 33% positive returns -- significantly worse than its typical performance. Combining this analysis with that of the U.S. dollar above, it appears that we might expect to see a stronger dollar and a weaker euro this time next year.

On a more immediate basis, however, traders may seek to capitalize on expected euro outperformance over the next few months -- with particular emphasis on the short-term nature of the opportunity window here. At the aforementioned early September peak of net long euro exposure among large speculators, the percentage of net longs was 36% of total positions. That's a far cry from the intensity of the 70%+ readings that were not at all uncommon in 2007 and prior years, which reinforces the idea that this trade has yet to reach "peak crowdedness." But the last time net longs topped the 30% level in the post-financial crisis era, back in 2013, the longer-haul outcome for the euro was markedly bearish.

 

It's the tail end of earnings season, but there are still a handful of high-profile names left to report. Athletic apparel retailer Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), for instance, is scheduled to release its quarterly results after tomorrow's close. Today, NKE call options are trading at an accelerated clip, and it looks like one trader may be hoping to capitalize on inflated implied volatility levels ahead of earnings.

At last check, roughly 13,000 calls had changed hands on Nike -- two times what's typically seen at this point in the day. While the January 2018 50-strike call is most active, it looks like the action here may be tied to stock. The October 52.50 call has also seen notable activity, due to a 2,000-contract block that is possibly being sold to close. 

While it's not entirely clear if this is the case, the trader could be hoping to maximize the premium collected for the option, considering the Dow stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility is docked at 30% -- a new 12-month high. In other words, elevated volatility expectations are being priced into NKE's short-term options, making it an ideal time to sell premium versus buy it.

More broadly speaking, options traders have targeted the October 55 and 60 calls in the front-month series, with 22,328 contracts and 21,492 contracts outstanding, respectively. It looks like there's been a mix of buy- and sell-to-open activity here in recent months. Those buying to open the calls expect NKE to settle above the strikes at the close on Friday, Oct. 20 -- when the options expire -- while those selling to open the calls expect the strikes to serve as a short-term ceiling.

This mixed sentiment is seen outside of the options pits, as well. Though short interest jumped 7.08% in the most recent reporting period to 26 million shares, this still only represents 2% of NKE's available float. Meanwhile, 14 analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating on Nike, compared to 15 brokerages that carry a "hold" or worse recommendation.

Looking back on the past eight quarters gives no clear direction on Nike stock's history of post-earnings price action, with the shares closing higher in the session subsequent to reporting exactly four times. And while the stock surged 11% last July, it plunged 7.1% in March. On average, NKE moves 5.2% the day after reporting, regardless of direction. This time around, however, the options market is pricing in a loftier 8.6% swing.

Based on Nike's current perch at $53.19, a move of such magnitude would either bring the stock up to $57.76 or down to $48.62. The former would mean a rally to levels not seen since before a mid-August bear gap, while the latter represents a two-year low.  Longer term, NKE stock is maintaining a 4.8% year-to-date lead.

If you're a long-time reader of Monday Morning Outlook, I apologize for what I'm about to say, as it is a refrain that you have heard before: We enter this week's trading with multiple benchmarks trading at psychological round-number levels that have historically marked hesitation points or profit-taking levels.

Specifically, perhaps the benchmark on most radars is the S&P 500 Index (SPX - 2,502.22), which took out the round 2,500 century mark to begin last week's trading, but eventually retreated back below it Friday morning, closing the week just 2 points above it.

Lingering just above is the 2,506-2,508 area, which represents the closing prices over the course of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Sept. 19-20. As expected, the Fed did not raise rates, and announced that in October it would begin the process of reducing the assets on its balance sheet. Since December 2016, the SPX closes around Fed policy decisions have marked hesitation and resistance levels in the days and weeks after the corresponding FOMC meetings, with even stiffer resistance coming into play after a rate hike. A notable exception is the rally that occurred immediately after the Feb. 1 meeting, when the Fed stayed pat on rates.

If the SPX behaves as it did in March through May, when the Fed was in focus with another century mark -- 2,400 -- in play, we may be in for a period of sideways action in the weeks ahead.

The Nasdaq Composite (COMP - 6,426.92) is trading around a level where it might be natural for profit-taking to come into play. The 6,459 level is a round 20% above last year's close and, as such, might be a level where those who are long technology stocks might decide to continue taking chips off the table, as they did in July -- also in the immediate aftermath of a Fed meeting.

The chart immediately below has horizontal lines that mark the round 10% and 20% levels above the 2016 close. Just as the COMP 5,921 level (10% above the 2016 close) acted as resistance from February through late April, it appears 6,459 (20% above last year's close) is similarly important.

Another equity benchmark we're watching is the Russell 2000 Index (RUT - 1,450.78), which comes into the week at 1,450 -- site of its late-July peak, coincident with the FOMC meeting. Just as half century-mark levels have been of significance on the SPX, per past discussions, they have been of importance on the RUT, too.

For example, per the chart below, note in April 2016 how 1,150 acted as a brick wall, then was challenged a few more times after a successful test of support at the round 1,100 mark. The RUT finally sustained a breakout above 1,150 in July, and rallied straight to the next half-century mark at 1,250. It leveled off at 1,250 from August through October, before falling back to 1,150 pre-election, where it found support.

After a sizzling post-election rally, the 1,350 half-century mark acted as resistance before a modest short-term pullback, and has since been supportive on multiple occasions this year. Just as RUT 1,350 has been friendly to bulls, a fair question looking ahead is: Will RUT 1,450 be friendly to bears?

"Monday's action was a killer for those long call options on August VIX futures, as by settlement on Wednesday morning, 90% of August VIX calls expired out of the money, or worthless. However, immediately after VIX expiration, call volume exploded, as negative headlines surfaced and VIX call players looked to quickly replace calls that had just expired, either as portfolio hedges or speculative bets.

"Even though North Korea fears subsided, other uncertainties took center stage, and this may continue to contribute to elevated stock market volatility levels in the near term, relative to what we grew accustomed to in much of May through July."
    -- Monday Morning Outlook, August 21, 2017

$VIX settlement ($VRO) 9.87...All but 5,000 of the 4.46 million Sept. $VIX call contracts expire worthless $SPX $SPY

— Todd Salamone (@toddsalamone) September 20, 2017

"North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho said late Thursday in New York that the country may consider a nuclear test of 'unprecedented scale' in the Pacific Ocean... Those comments came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said he was considering the 'highest level of hard-line countermeasure' in response to President Donald Trump's warning that the U.S. would annihilate North Korea if forced to defend itself or its allies."
    -- The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2017

"Brexit and Donald Trump are the two biggest political risks, according to European companies surveyed by UBS. Describing 2017 as an 'exceptional accumulation of political event risk,' UBS asked corporates what they're most worried about and what they might do in response."
    -- Bloomberg, September 21, 2017

On the volatility front, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX - 9.59) managed to move back into single digits last week, to my surprise. With the VIX going into last week's trading just above the round 10 level, followed by over 4 million September call options expiring in the middle of the week, along with the continuation of the war of words between North Korea and the U.S., my expectation would have been for the VIX to rally. Perhaps the thinking is, if North Korea reduces the entire U.S. to dust, there is no need to be in cash or put options -- so why react to this volley of words?

Nonetheless, do not be fooled by a single-digit VIX if you are looking to buy portfolio protection using out-of-the-money put index options. For example, the 14% implied volatility to insure against a 5% SPX decline in the next month (via the October 2,375-strike put) is twice the implied volatility of a 2,625-strike call, which is 5% above the current SPX level. It's also more than twice the SPX's current 20-day historical volatility of 5.69. In other words, out-of-the-money put options are expensive for those looking to hedge.

Around this time two years ago, the SPX's 5% out-of-the-money put implied vs. call implied ratio was only 1.65. Additionally, the 2017 ratio low of 1.60 occurred in February, right before the market headed south briefly. The 2016 lows of 1.50 occurred in February and late last year. Although readings between 1.50-1.65 are unusual, it is still worthwhile to know that the better deal is with the at-the-money options if you are looking to hedge.

But do not lose sight of the fact that, during this "exceptional accumulation of political event risk," as described by UBS, the market is hitting highs and call options are reasonably priced. Call options continue to be a great way to participate in upside, as the leverage provides you sizable money-making potential, while reducing your dollars at risk.

Continue reading:

• Indicator of the Week: 20 Stocks to Buy Right Now
• The Week Ahead: Yellen Headlines Busy Week of Fed Speeches

Analysts are weighing in on automaker General Motors Company (NYSE:GM), offshore driller Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG), and Amazon meal-delivery rival Blue Apron Holdings Inc (NYSE:APRN). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on shares of GM, RIG, and APRN.

GM Revs Higher on Upgrade to "Buy"

Deutsche Bank upgraded GM to "buy" from "hold" and hiked its price target to $51 from $36, implying expected upside of 29.4% from Friday's close at $39.42. General Motors stock is up 1.7% ahead of the bell, on pace to extend its recent breakout above its March highs in the $38.50 region.

As GM shares continue their positive price action, there's plenty of room for more analysts to climb on board. Among the 13 brokerage firms tracking the auto sector standout, eight maintain a skeptical "hold" rating -- providing ample opportunity for more upgrades down the road.

Transocean Lands a Rare Bullish Brokerage Nod

RIG scored an upgrade to "buy" from "neutral" at UBS this morning, along with a price-target boost to $15 from $9. In a note to clients, the brokerage firm cited rising demand expectations for floaters and jackups through 2020. Transocean shares have surged 4.7% in pre-market trading, after settling Friday's session at $9.32 -- down nearly 37% year-to-date.

Given the bleak price performance by RIG this year, it's no surprise to find that most analysts are considerably less optimistic than UBS. The stock sports just four "strong buy" recommendations, compared to nine "holds" -- and no fewer than six "strong sells."

Blue Apron Set to Bounce on New "Buy" Recommendation

APRN stock has tacked on 2.9% in electronic trading, bolstered by a new "buy" rating from Guggenheim. The firm set its price target for Blue Apron stock at $9, representing a premium of more than 73% to Friday's close at $5.19. It's been a rough road for APRN since its initial public offering (IPO) priced at $10 per share back in late June, due to competition concerns from Amazon, but the $5 level -- a 50% haircut from that IPO level -- has contained the stock's recent lows.

Meanwhile, short sellers maintain a massive stake against APRN, which could contribute to future volatility in the share price. Currently, despite a 10.8% drop in the past two reporting periods, a substantial 43.6% of the stock's float is dedicated to short interest. That accumulation represents nearly eight times APRN's average daily trading volume.

As the major stock indexes assailed record highs, the number of self-identified bears in the weekly American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey plummeted by 13.8 percentage points in the week ended Wednesday, Sept. 13 -- the largest one-week drop since July 2010. In fact, it's the first time in over a year that the number of AAII bears fell by 10 percentage points or more, with the last occurrence in February 2016, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. Against this backdrop, we decided to take a look at how the S&P 500 Index (SPX) tends to perform after a major exodus of bears.

AAII Bears Migrate to the Bullish Camp

So, where did all those AAII bears go last week? Most went directly to the bullish camp. While AAII bears fell to the lowest level since April 7, 2016, representing just 22% of AAII respondents, the number of self-proclaimed bulls jumped by 12 percentage points to 41.3% -- the highest since Jan. 11. It was the biggest percentage-point jump since April 26, and the biggest two-week bullish increase (16.3 percentage points) since Nov. 16, just after the presidential election. Nevertheless, the number of AAII bulls has been under 50% for 141 weeks, marking the longest streak on record.

Stock Performance After AAII Signals

Since 2009, there have been just 26 other times in which AAII bears dropped by 10 percentage points or more in the course of one week. Two weeks after these signals, the S&P 500 Index was up an average of 1.4%, and was positive 73% of the time. That's nearly triple the SPX's average two-week return of 0.5%, going back to 2009, with an average win rate of just 62%.

What's more, the SPX tends to outperform after these signals looking all the way out to six months (26 weeks). At the 13-week (three-month) marker, the SPX was higher an average of 5.1%, compared to an anytime average return of 3.5%. At both the three- and six-month marks, the S&P was in the black 88% of the time, compared to anytime win rates of 77% and 82%, respectively. And the index was up an average of 10.9% six months after a signal, compared to just 6.9% anytime.

Are We Still Climbing a Wall of Worry?

So, should contrarians be concerned? Not just yet. As Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone recently pointed out, the bullish percentage in the weekly AAII sentiment survey got as high as 75% in January 2000, and was at 65% around the March 2000 top. Ahead of the October 2007 peak, a weekly streak of consecutive bullish percentage readings ran below 50% from late January 2007 through late September 2007, before finally climbing to 54% in October 2007, just before the financial crisis. Again, our current AAII bullish percentage is just over 41%. 

Meanwhile, short interest is rising even as the SPX hits record highs, suggesting we're still "climbing a wall of worry." Until we hit the "euphoria" phase of the sentiment cycle, it's unlikely that a market top is imminent. However, if you're nervous, Salamone says, "call options should be considered so that you have less capital at risk." 

Dow futures are signaling a lower open due to renewed fears surrounding North Korea. Among specific stocks in focus today are used car retailer CarMax, Inc (NYSE:KMX), athletic apparel retailer Finish Line Inc (NASDAQ:FINL), and telecom stock Sprint Corp (NYSE:S). Here's a closer look at what's moving shares of KMX, FINL, and S. 

KMX Stock Rises After Earnings Beat

CarMax stock is up 2.7% in pre-market trading, after the company's better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings report. The shares just hit a two-year high of $69.98 yesterday before closing at $68.84, up 26% year-over-year. 

Despite this promising performance on the charts, many analysts have remained bearish. At the moment, half the brokerage firms covering KMX rate it a "hold" or "strong sell," and the shares are now trading in line with their average 12-month price target. As such, today's post-earnings pop could result in a round of bullish analyst attention. 

Short Sellers Cheer Disappointing Finish Line Earnings

Finish Line stock has shed 9.4% in electronic trading, due to lackluster fiscal second-quarter earnings. As of their close at $9.22 yesterday, the shares had already dropped more than half their value in 2017, hitting an eight-year low of $6.90 in late August. 

Short sellers would love for this price action to continue. These bearish bets increased by almost 16% over the last two reporting periods, and the 11.8 million FINL shares now sold short are the most since at least 2002. If the company's disappointing quarterly report induces short sellers to double down on the retailer, more losses could be in store. 

Sprint Stock in Focus as T-Mobile Talks Heat Up

Shares of Sprint are up 3.6% in pre-market trading, after Reuters reported the company is closing in on a merger with T-Mobile. The stock rallied a few days back on similar speculation, but subsequently cooled to close yesterday at $8.03, putting it below its year-to-date breakeven point. 

In the options pits, traders have been focusing on call buying. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows a 10-day put/call open interest ratio of 10.11, which ranks in the 94th annual percentile.