The shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) are 1.7% higher before the open, after RBC upgraded the restaurant stock to "outperform" from "sector perform," while boosting its price target to $510 from $450. The analyst in coverage likes Chipotle's menu innovation and digital initiatives, as well as its commitment to improving restaurant margins for 2019. 

Perhaps limiting CMG's upside this morning though is a Wedbush price-target cut to $380 from $445. Chipotle stock is fresh off its fifth straight weekly loss, and as of Friday's close of $428.54 has shed nearly 24% since its Aug. 16 high of $530.68. However, the pullback appears to have been contained by the shares' 160-day moving average. And overall, the security still boasts a 48% lead in 2018. 

A short squeeze could help keep the wind at CMG's back. Short interest fell by 13.7% in the most recent reporting period to 1.97 million shares, the lowest amount since December 2015. This still represents a healthy 7.2% of the stock's total available float, and nearly three times the average daily trading volume. 

Analysts still lean bearishly toward the security. Of the 26 brokerages covering the burrito chain, more than 61% rate it a "hold" or worse. In addition, the average 12-month price target of $465.50 is only a 8% premium to Friday's closing perch. 

The Dow is trading sharply lower at midday, giving up its early morning gains. However, three names still making big moves higher are mobile payments expert Net Element Inc (NASDAQ:NETE), bulk shipping concern DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS), and regenerative tissue specialist CollPlant Holdings (NASDAQ:CLGN). Below we'll take a look at what's moving shares of NETE, DRYS, and CLGN.

NETE Shares Soar on New Service For Cannabis Industry

After more than doubling to trade as high as $10.60 earlier, NETE stock was last seen up 63.6% at $6.56, thanks to news the company is launching a payments service for the cannabis industry. The shares are among the biggest Nasdaq gainers this afternoon.

Despite giving up much of its intraday gains, Net Element is set to top its 80-day moving average for the first time since July, and is still set for its highest close since mid-August. The shares have explored a range of roughly 30 points in the past year, but it's been mostly downhill since peaking at $33.51 in December. Today's rally could have several short sellers on edge, with 20.5% of Net Element's total float sold short.

DRYS Shares Make Another Big Move

DRYS stock is trading up 18.3% at $5.81, thanks to an upbeat update on capesize rates. At these levels, DryShips shares have a year-to-date lead of 64%, with the $4.50 level helping limit pullbacks in recent months.

Meanwhile, options volume has been light on an absolute basis, but those speculating on the shipping name have preferred calls. During the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) 433 calls have been bought to open, compared to just 65 puts.That number has already been surpassed today, with more than 2,000 DryShips calls crossing the tape so far -- five times the norm.

Unknown CLGN Stock Explodes

CLGN stock is exploding higher after the company signed a licensing deal with United Therapeutics (UTHR) for its 3D bioprinted lung transplant technology. CollPlant shares earlier traded as high as $8.73, but were last seen at $6.40, up 16.4% on the day. The equity traded as high as $9 earlier in the year, with the $5 level acting as a strong floor in recent months. There are no analysts covering CLGN.

Glass concern Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) will report earnings before the open tomorrow, Oct. 23. The shares have pulled back with the broader stock market of late, but if recent history is any indicator, it could be time to bet bullishly on GLW.

Corning stock notched a 17-year high of $36.56 on Sept. 21, but since then has surrendered roughly 16% to trade around $30.81, on pace for its first monthly loss since April. However, GLW is now within one standard deviation of its 160-day and 200-day moving averages, after a lengthy stretch north of these trendlines -- and similar pullbacks have had bullish implications in the past.

Specifically, in the past three years, Corning shares have experienced a similar pullback to the 160-day trendline four times, after which the stock went on to average a one-month gain of 4.35%, and was higher 75% of the time, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Meanwhile, GLW has experienced similar pullbacks to the 200-day on three occasions, averaging a subsequent one-month gain of 5.26%, and higher two-thirds of the time.

Along with double-barreled trendline support, the stock could also find a foothold in the round-number $30 region. This area is where GLW was trading prior to a third-quarter bull gap, and acted as a ceiling in the early part of 2018.

In fact, the aforementioned bull gap came on the heels of a well-received Corning earnings report in late July, with GLW shares enjoying a one-day gain of 11.3% after reporting. Looking back eight quarters, the stock has averaged a single-session post-earnings reaction of 5.1%, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a bigger-than-usual 9.1% swing for GLW, per implied volatility data.

Should Corning stock, once again, bounce off key trendlines -- especially in the wake of another blowout earnings report -- there's plenty of room on the bullish bandwagon for the oversold stock. Just three of eight analysts following GLW deem it worthy of a "buy" or better rating, and recent option buyers have been upping the bearish ante.

On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.78 is in the 95th percentile of its annual range. While this tells us that calls bought to open have outnumbered puts on an absolute basis lately, the percentile indicates GLW option buyers have demonstrated a much healthier-than-usual appetite for bearish bets over bullish in the past two weeks.

 

 

Sneaker name Skechers USA Inc (NYSE:SKX) has seen heavy options trading in recent weeks, landing on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of 20 S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID) stocks that saw the most options activity in the past 10 days. Names highlighted yellow are new to the list. SKX is fresh off its best week in over a year, but a pullback could be imminent, if a historic technical signal holds true once more. 

Last week's earnings-induced surge vaulted SKX to within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average, after a lengthy stretch below this trendline. In the past two years, there have been six other signals of this kind, after which Skechers shares were down by an average of 4.1% a month later and positive only 17% of the time, per data from White. At last check, Skechers stock was down 4.8% at $28.53, extending its year-to-date losses to 25%. Prior to last Thursday's earnings beat, the security had been carving out a channel of lower lows for the past two months. 

In the options pits, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows SKX puts have been increasing in popularity recently. This is shown in its 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.72, which ranks in the elevated 71st percentile of its annual range. While this ratio indicates calls have outnumbered puts on an absolute basis, the high percentile suggests the appetite for bearish bets has been much healthier than usual. Digging deeper, the January 2019 23- and 25-strike puts are home to peak open interest of 14,671 contracts, collectively.

Meanwhile, short-term options are attractively priced right now, from a volatility perspective. This is according to the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 40%, which sits in the 14th percentile of its annual range. In other words, muted volatility expectations are being priced into short-term contracts.

Several biotech stocks are getting demolished today, including Clovis Oncology Inc (NASDAQ:CLVS). It appears CLVS stock is down on encouraging data from rival AstraZeneca (AZN), after the latter's Lynparza was shown to halt or reverse tumor growth in ovarian cancer patients. Against this backdrop, Clovis stock was last seen down 19.72% at $21.16 -- and fresh off a two-year low of $20.56 -- and options traders are betting on more downside.

Clovis stock has surrendered roughly 70% in 2018, and has been in a channel of lower highs and lows since peaking just shy of $100 in July 2017. So far this year, CLVS has enjoyed just one positive month -- May's 8.25% gain -- and has ended every other month in the red. With the equity down 28.8% so far in October, CLVS is on pace for its worst month since January 2016.

Although Clovis shares are on the short-sale restricted list today, bears are coming out in full force. The security has seen roughly 1,375 put options change hands -- three times the average afternoon pace. Attracting the most attention has been the November 20 put, which has seen apparent buy-to-open activity. By purchasing the puts to open, the traders expect CLVS shares to retreat beneath $20 by options expiration on Friday, Nov. 16 -- which also encompasses the company's third-quarter earnings, slated for release Oct. 30.

Today's appetite for bearish bets runs counter to the recent trend, though. Despite CLVS' long-term technical woes, options traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 21.4 calls for every put in the past two weeks. This ratio registers in the 86th percentile of its annual range, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for bullish bets over bearish of late.

Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) fell out of the gate this morning due to disappointing quarterly results from toymaking peer Hasbro (HAS). However, the stock has since bounced back, adding 0.6% to trade at $14.30, as the company prepares for its own earnings release scheduled for after the close on Thursday, Oct. 25. But even though MAT shares have a rocky post-earnings trading history, options traders are betting bullishly ahead of the event.

Specifically, there's been very unusual activity today at the weekly 11/9 15-strike call, where almost 6,600 contracts have traded, compared to fewer than 300 at the next most popular option. Data gives the impression of buy-to-open activity, which would mean these bulls see Mattel stock rising above $15 over the next two weeks.

As was alluded to earlier, such bullish activity would be betting against a break of the recent post-earnings trend out of MAT. The security has closed in the red the day after earnings in five of the past eight quarters, including a 4.2% drop back in July, and a 8.9% decline this time last year. Overall, the stock has averaged a one-day post-earnings move of 8.4% in the past two years, but this time around the options market is expecting almost twice that move, with traders pricing in a 16.5% swing for Friday's session.

Before today, options activity had been more of what you'd might expect on the equity. That is, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows put buying has almost doubled call buying during the past 10 days.

On the charts, the security has struggled in 2018, down more than 7%. Meanwhile, the 320-day moving average has acted as a stiff ceiling since June.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) are higher in early trading, with help from a pair of price-target hikes. Ahead of AMD's expected earnings release on Wednesday, Oct. 24, BMO and UBS lifted their targets on the shares to $20 and $25, respectively. Separately, software firm Acceleware announced a $2.5 million deal to provide custom software engineering resources to AMD. At last check, AMD stock is up 5%, at $24.85.

Advanced Micro Devices has been a long-term outperformer on the charts, advancing 142% year-to-date. The shares hit a 12-year high of $34.14 on Sept.13, but subsequently pulled back with the broader equities market, ultimately finding support in the $24 area.

As alluded to earlier, the chip concern is set to report earnings later this week. The shares have moved higher after the last three earnings releases, including a 14.3% one-day rally back in July, and a 13.7% surge in late April. Should the company once again exceed expectations, more upbeat analyst attention could be in store. Currently, 13 of the 23 brokerage firms following Advanced Micro Devices stock sport tepid "hold" or "strong sell" ratings.

Lastly, the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 95 out of 100. This lofty ranking shows that AMD has a tendency to make larger-than-expected moves on the charts compared to what the options market has priced in over the past year -- a boon for premium buyers haead of earnings.

It's been a horrible month for Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY). The shares had been on a strong uptrend since hitting a bottom near $50 back in June, and touched a near-term peak of $63.69 on Oct. 9. Since then, however, the stock has been plagued by heavy selling pressure, closing Friday at $54.30 -- meaning it had shed roughly 15% since the aforementioned October high. Today, BMY is lower once again.

The drugmaker has dropped another 5.3% in early trading, last seen at $51.45, following news the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is extending its review period of the company's Opdivo combination therapy for lung cancer patients. Citigroup responded by dropping its price target on BMY to $57 from $62, and downgrading the stock to "neutral."

Most analysts are already bearish on the stock, with eight of 13 covering brokerage firms handing out "hold" ratings. Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target stands up at $61.06, so more technical weakness could attract additional price-target reductions.

And despite Bristol-Myers Squibb's 16% year-to-date deficit, short interest is almost nonexistent. Less than 1% of the equity's float is sold short, with just 13.5 million shares held by short sellers, or 2.6 times the average daily trading volume.

As for options activity, traders have mostly avoided BMY, with open interest sitting right near a 52-week low. Still, it's worth nothing that the January 2019 60- and 65-strike calls are the two top open interest positions, and data from the major exchanges shows mostly sell-to-open activity, suggesting traders were expecting the shares to hold below the price points in the coming months.

So far today, both calls and puts are crossing at an accelerated rate. Leading the way is the November 50 put, while new positions are also opening at the weekly 10/26 49-strike put. Looking ahead, the company is scheduled to report earnings the morning of Thursday, Oct. 25.

Shares of Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) are hovering around breakeven today at $318.97, as traders gear up for the company's third-quarter earnings report. The pharma name is scheduled to report before the market opens this Tuesday, Oct. 23, and speculative traders are banking on a much bigger-than-usual post-event price swing for BIIB stock.

On the charts, BIIB has had a volatile run in 2018. The stock fell as low as $249.17 on April 24, but bounced back to hit a three-year peak of $388.67 as soon as July 25. As a result, a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the aforementioned annual low and multi-year high rests at $318.92 -- just pennies below the stock's current trading levels, and in line with BIIB's year-to-date breakeven mark of $318.57.

Digging into its earnings history, BIIB closed higher the day after reporting in six of the last eight quarters, including the last three in a row. Looking broader, the shares have averaged a 2.6% move the day after earnings over the last two years, regardless of direction. This time around, BIIB options traders are expecting nearly four times that average move, with a 10.6% swing priced in for Tuesday's trading.

Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows BIIB with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.43, which ranks in the 96th percentile of its annual range. This suggests that puts have been purchased over calls at a near-annual high pace during the past two weeks, with traders showing a distinct preference for bearish bets on BIIB ahead of earnings.

Conversely, analyst sentiment has been extremely optimistic toward the drug stock. This is per the overwhelming 18 of 24 brokerage firms that sport a "buy" or better rating. Plus, BIIB's average 12-month price target of $390.88 stands at a 22.5% upside to current levels.

Given the technical significance of the $318-$319 neighborhood where the stock is currently trading, traders will certainly be watching this area closely in the aftermath of BIIB's quarterly results. And with sentiment polarized ahead of earnings, the stage could be set for an extreme move in one direction or the other in the wake of the report.

I stopped by CNBC's Squawk Box this morning, where the discussion centered around the aftermath of Wednesday's freshly released September Fed meeting minutes. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last met ahead of the equity market's wild October sell-off, and the minutes revealed that some members are now in favor of a restrictive monetary policy. So what does it all mean for stocks?

To watch the full segment, click on the video player below. And to stay up to date with all of our latest market insights as they break, make sure you're on the list for free email delivery of our weekly Monday Morning Outlook column.

Shares of streaming name Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI) are popping in early trading, after the company announced a new partnership with Amazon (AMZN) that includes offering a three-month trial of its products to consumers who purchase Amazon's Echo Dot smart speaker. In response, SIRI is up 1.3% at $6.33, at last check.

It's been a rough stretch for Sirius XM stock, which recently gapped lower after news broke in late September that it plans to buy sector peer Pandora (P) for about $3.5 billion. Since then, the shares have struggled to top the $6.30-$6.50 ceiling, site of that recent bear gap. However, SIRI is still up 18% year-to-date.

Looking in the options pits, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows the streaming name with a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 11.46, ranking in the 94th annual percentile. This indicates that calls have been purchased over puts at a much faster-than-usual clip over the last 10 weeks.

Some of this burst of call buying could be attributable to shorts hedging against any unexpected upside. Short interest on SIRI rose 6.5% during the most recent reporting period, and now represents 16% of the stock's total available float. At the security's average pace of trading, it would take shorts over eight days to buy back the 205.28 million shares currently sold short.

The housing sector keeps disappointing, most recently evidenced by weak housing starts data yesterday. Meanwhile, shares of U.S. homebuilders continue to struggle, and this morning Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) and PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE:PHM) are both in the red once again. Below is a quick look at how shares of TOL and PHM are trading.

TOL Stock Downtrend Continues

BofA-Merrill Lynch this morning weighed in on TOL stock by downgrading its rating to "neutral" from "buy" and cutting its price target to $38 from $47 -- though the brokerage firm did say it could see the makings of a recovery in U.S. homebuilding. Toll Brothers stock was last seen down 1.1% at $30.84, already hitting a fresh 52-week low of $30.23 as its months-long downtrend, which began after its January peak near $53, continues.

Meanwhile, options traders have preferred calls over puts by a wide margin. Data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows more than 1,900 calls were bought to open during the past 10 days, compared to just 435 puts.

PHM Shares Get Another Bear Note

BofA also lowered its rating on PHM stock to "neutral" from "buy" and dropped its price target by $4 to $28. As such, the shares are hitting fresh lows of their own, bottoming at $22.25 out of the gate, and were last seen down 1.6% at $22.46. Year-to-date, the equity has shed over 33%.

Most other analysts already positioned themselves bearishly on PulteGroup. There are 14 brokerage firms in coverage, and nine of them have "hold" or "strong sell" ratings. However, the average 12-month price target of $30.25 now represents a significant premium, so price-target cuts going forward are a possibility.