Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jan 18, 2017 at 12:27 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • By the Numbers

Shares of QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) are on the rebound, after they dropped 4% Tuesday on charges filed against the chipmaker by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for anti-competitive practices. Specifically, the regulatory agency said the company blocked "innovation that would offer significant consumer benefits," by creating "a tax" on competitors using similar processors. QUALCOMM responded to the allegations last night, saying the allegations are "significantly flawed." After dipping out of the gate today, however, QCOM was last seen up 1.4% at $65.07.

Analysts have been quick to chime in, with UBS cutting its price target on QCOM to $68 from $72. Elsewhere, Bernstein said the case is unlikely to cause problems in QCOM's planned purchase of NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ:NXPI). Overall, the brokerage bunch has been in the stock's bullish corner, with 14 out of 23 rating QCOM a "strong buy," and only one handing out a "sell" recommendation. Plus, the 12-month consensus price target of $73.63 sits at a level the shares haven't seen in more than a year.

In the options pits, meanwhile, there are signs of growing pessimism toward QCOM. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for instance, put buying has picked up in recent weeks, with the equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.75 seated higher than 77% of the past year's worth of readings.

What's more, QCOM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.20 indicates put open interest outweighs call open interest among options set to expire in the next three months. Plus, the reading ranks just 1 percentage point from an annual put-skewed high. Total put open interest, meanwhile, is seated in the 98th percentile of its 12-month range,with 367,498 contracts outstanding.

From a technical standpoint, QCOM's bounce coincides with a successful test at the $64 level, which is home to the stock's 30-week moving average. Plus, the stock is fighting for a foothold atop the 120-day moving average -- which has limited pullbacks since last April, after serving as resistance through much of 2015 -- as well as a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of QUALCOMM, Inc.'s February-through-October rally.

QCOM Daily Chart January 18

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Published on Jan 18, 2017 at 2:19 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are sitting in the red, with Fed Chair Janet Yellen scheduled to step up to the mic shortly. Among specific equities in focus today are drug stocks Apricus Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:APRI) and Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc - Ordinary Shares (NASDAQ:JAZZ), as well as uranium producer Cameco Corp (USA) (NYSE:CCJ). Here's a quick look at what's moving APRI, JAZZ, and CCJ.

  • APRI has soared over 133% to trade at $3.52 -- making it the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq -- after the drugmaker's erectile dysfunction treatment Vitaros was approved in Mexico. This is a dramatic turn of events for the stock, which had lost nearly nine-tenths of its value year-over-year heading into today's session. A number of Apricus Biosciences Inc short sellers managed to dodge this bullet, however. In the most recent reporting period, short interest plunged 35.7%.
  • JAZZ has jumped 10.4% to $127.56, after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted the company's petition to not approve generic versions of its narcolepsy treatment Xyrem, without including a notice about potential drug interactions. This is a coup for Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc, which watched the FDA yesterday approve a Xyrem generic developed by Roxane Laboratories. SunTrust Robinson said the labeling decision "strengthens Jazz's position in settlement talks with generics makers." Due to the gap, the stock is now in modestly positive year-over-year territory. On Wall Street, hopes are extremely high within the brokerage community. Eleven analysts rate JAZZ a "strong buy," compared to one "hold" and not a single "sell."
  • CCJ is on the short-sale restricted list, as it's plummeted more than 18% to trade at $10.84 -- putting the shares on track for their worst day in six years. Weighing heavily on the stock is Cameco Corp's woeful 2016 forecast, as well as its 10% workforce reduction announcement -- not to mention a downgrade to "market perform" at BMO Capital. On the charts, the shares are now testing their 320-day moving average, which they'd only recently broken through. A number of short sellers are counting on CCJ to breach this key trendline and extend its run lower. Over the last two reporting periods, short interest on the stock jumped by 27.8%, and it would currently take over a week to cover all the shorted shares, at the equity's average daily trading volume.
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Published on Jan 18, 2017 at 3:09 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is making headlines ahead of tonight's earnings report. The streaming service announced it has picked up Jerry Seinfeld's "Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee," of which it will stream and produce an additional 24 episodes. Heading into tonight's earnings, it looks as though NFLX option players are expecting a bigger-than-usual move in either direction.

At last check, NFLX is down 0.7% at $131.90. Since February, NFLX shares have managed to add 65% -- mostly thanks to a huge post-earnings bull gap in October -- and the stock notched a new record high of $135.40 yesterday. The shares have also enjoyed the support of their 10- and 20-day moving averages since late November.

Drilling down, NFLX calls and puts are trading at about the same rate today, with roughly 72,000 of each crossing the line so far. NFLX options are trading at nearly two times their average intraday volume, with the 10 most active options expiring at the end of this week. In particular, the January 2017 132-, 135-, and 140-strike calls have seen buy-to-open action, according to the International Securities Exchange (ISE), indicating traders are expecting higher highs by the time the options expire this Friday.

Widening the lens, near-term option players have rarely been more put-skewed over the last 12 months, with NFLX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.15 sitting at an annual peak. What's more, NFLX's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) of 0.90 sits in the top 82% of its annual range, indicating a larger-than-usual appetite for long puts over calls. During this time period, the June 100 put was the most added option, with notable buy-to-open activity. However, considering NFLX's recent surge, this could be attributable to shareholders seeking to hedge their investments with out-of-the-money puts.

But despite NFLX's quest for record highs, pessimism prevails. Short interest in the shares accounts for 5.7% of NFLX's float, which would take traders a week to cover, at NFLX's average daily volume -- plenty of fuel for a short squeeze, should NFLX report another solid quarter. Elsewhere, some of the brokerage bunch also remain skeptical, with 15 of 33 rating the shares a "hold" or worse -- ample room for upgrades. However, Brean Capital issued a note in support of NFLX earlier today, suggesting NFLX could hit 230 million global subscribers.

J.P. Morgan Securities recommends owning volatility in NFLX ahead of earnings. In fact, NFLX shares have enjoyed a one-day post-earnings move of more than 10% in six of the past eight quarters. This time around, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) option players are pricing in a 14.9% single-day move in either direction -- bigger than the stock's average one-day swing of 13.4% after its last eight earnings reports.  

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 1:18 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

Luxury retailers are in the spotlight today, after Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF) announced disappointing holiday sales. However, sector peers Coach Inc (NYSE:COH) and Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE:KORS) seem to be fazed by neither TIF's lackluster data nor some bearish analyst attention, with both stocks notably higher. What's more, while COH and KORS have both underperformed the broader equities market in recent weeks, near-term option traders and analysts have starkly different opinions on the two stocks.

First up, COH is trading 2.8% higher at $36.07 so far today, in spite of a price-target cut to $31 from $32 by Goldman Sachs. But while the stock is set to overtake its 10- and 20-day moving averages for the first time since early December, it's still down 17% since its July peak, with recent rally attempts blocked by its 200-day moving average.  

COH options are crossing the line at twice their average daily volume, with puts outnumbering calls 2,641 to 1,902. Specifically, COH's most active option is its February 34 put, which has seen possible sell-to-open action. If speculators are writing the puts to open, they're expecting COH to remain atop the $34 level through the close on Friday, Feb. 17, when the options expire -- which encompasses Coach's expected earnings release at the end of the month. COH hasn't traded below $34 since February 2016.

Widening the scope, today's preference for near-term puts isn't out of the ordinary. COH's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.30 is higher than 97% of all other readings from the past year, indicating near-term option players have rarely been more put-biased. In addition, COH's front-month gamma-weighed SOIR of 2.19 indicates put open interest more than doubles call open interest among near-the-money, front-month options, set to expire this Friday. Despite this put skew, the most added option during the past two weeks of trading is the weekly 2/10 36-strike call, the buyers of which are betting on near-term upside -- or perhaps a post-earnings win -- for the retail stock.

Taking a step back, analysts remain in Coach Inc's (NYSE:COH) bullish corner, despite the stock's struggles of late. Fourteen of 21 brokerage firms weighing in rate the shares a "strong buy," with only one "sell" or worse recommendation to be seen.

Elsewhere, KORS is trading 3.8% higher at $43.98. Like COH, the retailer is blowing off a price-target cut to $51 from $52 by Goldman Sachs, with the shares on pace to close above their 10- and 20-day moving averages for the first time since early December. Still, the security has shed more than 16.5% since its early November peak, breaking south of support in the $46 area.

Drilling down, KORS' SOIR of 0.46 sits at an annual low, indicating near-term option players haven't been more call-skewed at any other point in the last 12 months. Widening the lens, KORS 50-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) shows 7.70 calls bought to open for every put over the last 10 weeks, a reading that sits just 6 percentage points from an annual peak. Perhaps buyers are betting on an earnings win for KORS in the near term.

Unlike COH, KORS isn't beloved among analysts, with just two of 18 offering up a "buy" or better endorsement. However, not everyone is in Michael Kors Holdings Ltd's (NYSE:KORS) corner. Short interest is up 7% over the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for 8.5% of the stock's float. It would take traders 6.4 days to cover these positions, given KORS' average daily volume. Against this backdrop, perhaps some of the recent call buyers -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- are shorts seeking an options hedge against an earnings win for KORS.

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 1:49 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • VIX and Volatility
  • Intraday Option Activity
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) call options have been flying off the shelves, leading to speculation that investors are bracing for a massive stock sell-off, as these vehicles are commonly used to hedge long equity positions. According to Trade-Alert, Friday marked the fourth straight day of noteworthy action in out-of-the-money (OOTM) VIX calls, with traders homing in on the deep OOTM February 21 strike -- which expires on Wednesday, Feb. 15.

The expiration date is notable, as it follows a pair of highly anticipated events, either of which could spark a surge in volatility. For one, President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration is scheduled for this Friday; for another, the Fed's two-day policy meeting kicks off on Tuesday, Jan. 31. Although a rate hike is considered unlikely, Wall Street will be scouring the central bank's post-meeting announcement for hints of a potential interest rate hike in March, which could trigger a spike in the VIX.

Other factors are likely fueling the rush for calls, too, according to Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone. "With February VIX futures recently hitting their lowest level since mid-December, volatility speculators and those using VIX options as portfolio insurance may see this as an opportune time to bet for or hedge against a pop in volatility," Salamone explains. "Earnings reporting season is about to get into high gear, the inauguration is scheduled for the end of this week, 'Brexit' headlines are returning, and another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting between January VIX expiration and February VIX expiration is on the calendar, which may be enough to make VIX call options attractive."

Speaking more broadly about the bias toward calls on the market's "fear gauge," the VIX sports a top-heavy 20-day call/put volume ratio of 4.19 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Moreover, last Thursday, this reading clocked in even higher, at 4.78, its loftiest level since early November, per the chart below (courtesy of Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal):

vix call put ratio jan 17

It's more of the same today. With call open interest already docked in the 93rd annual percentile -- versus puts, which are in the middling 47th percentile -- calls are changing hands at twice the usual intraday rate. The deep OOTM February 17 call occupies the top position, while the third most active strike is the February 22 call. At last check, February VIX futures were 0.4 point lower at 14.20.

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 2:17 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are struggling amid "Brexit" and pre-inauguration Trump headlines. Among specific equities in focus today are Fisher-Price parent Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT), hospital operator Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC), and oil stock Sanchez Energy Corp (NYSE:SN). Here's a quick look at what's moving MAT, THC, and SN.

  • MAT is 5.2% higher at $31.06, after the company named Margaret Georgiadis, formerly Google's president of Americas, its next CEO. Now, the stock is perched above its 100-day trendline -- a consistent level of resistance in recent months -- for the first time since late November. In the options pits, bullish betting has really picked up in recent months. Mattel, Inc. sports a 50-day call/put volume ratio of 4.01 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) -- just 3 percentage points from a 52-week high.
  • THC has tacked on 4.3% to trade at $19.01, as hospital stocks rally on President-elect Donald Trump's expressed desire for "insurance for everybody" -- even after the potential repeal of Obamacare. According to brokerage firm Baird, Trump's remark has investors sensing there will be a "softer landing" for the sector than originally anticipated. That said, Tenet Healthcare Corp has still lost more than one-fifth of its value on a year-over-year basis. Not to mention, short sellers have been piling on. Over 19% of THC's float is sold short, which would take nearly seven sessions to cover, at the stock's average trading rate.
  • SN has boomed 18.5% to trade at $13.32, and is fresh off an annual high of $13.68. Catalyzing the shares is a raft of bullish brokerage attention, after the energy firm announced on Friday plans to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corporation's (NYSE:APC) Eagleford Shale assets. Specifically, Canaccord Genuity, Northland Capital, and Credit Suisse each raised their price targets on Sanchez Energy Corp. More upbeat analyst notes could be right around the corner, too, as two-thirds of the brokerage firms tracking SN have dubbed it a lukewarm "hold."
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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 2:40 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
  • By the Numbers
  • Stock Market News
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) sold off in the wake of Donald Trump's surprising win in the early November U.S. presidential election. However, since bottoming in the $116-$117 neighborhood after the Fed raised interest rates in mid-December, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- which mirrors the price action in U.S. Treasury bonds with a maturity of at least 20 years -- reversed course, bouncing near the site of its June/July 2015 lows. And while TLT is up more than 2.6% in 2017 to trade at $122.27, pessimism toward the ETF has been growing, suggesting the shares' recent rebound could have room to run.

Taking a closer look at TLT's technical backdrop shows the ETF is now trading north of its 20-day moving average. More recently, the shares overtook their 50-day moving average -- a trendline that served as a ceiling during a late-September rally attempt. Moreover, according to Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone, TLT's mid-December bottom held north of $114.90, which is 0.8 times the July 2016 all-time peak at $143.62.

tlt daily since june 2016

Despite this show of short-term strength, skepticism toward bonds has been ramping up. For starters, BofA-Merrill Lynch recently showed its highest five-week outflow in bond funds in the past 15 years, according to Schaeffer's Senior Equity Analyst Joe Bell, CMT. Plus, per ETF.com, net outflows on TLT hit $1 billion from the post-election Nov. 11-Dec. 31 period.

This pessimism is seen in the most recent Commitment of Traders (CoT) report, too, which showed a record-breaking net short position on the 10-year Treasury note. Additionally, short interest on TLT has ballooned more than 82% since hitting a roughly seven-year low in April. Such elevated levels of bearish betting, combined with TLT's recent bounce, may explain why call open interest recently pulled ahead of put open interest on the ETF for the first time since late June.

As of Friday's close, 913,161 calls were currently open on TLT, in the 96th percentile of its annual range, compared to 734,660 puts, in the middling 48th percentile of its 12-month range. And with peak call open interest of 110,854 contracts docked at the out-of-the-money February 126 strike -- due to massive bets placed in late December -- it's likely some of these shorted players have been looking to hedge their bearish bond bets via long call purchases.

Nevertheless, it's likely that put options will have a bigger impact on TLT's near-term price action, versus calls. Specifically, the underfoot 120 and 122 strikes are home to roughly 60,000 contracts collectively outstanding in the standard monthly January series. This could provide an options-related foothold for TLT, as the hedges related to these bearish bets unwind over the next week.

Meanwhile, now appears to be an opportune time to purchase premium on TLT's near-term options, with both Bell and Salamone noting that implied volatility on the ETF has declined since its early November/early December peaks. In fact, TLT's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 13% ranks lower than 78% of all comparable readings taken in the past year -- meaning low volatility expectations are currently being priced into the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) short-term options.

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 3:11 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Options Update
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume among mid-cap names during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are retail stocks GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) and J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP). Here's a closer look at how options traders are lining up on GME and JCP.

Most Active Options 2 Jan 17

GME sold off on Friday after the company revealed lackluster holiday sales -- the type of move options traders were betting on. Specifically, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 5.32 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks just 2 percentage points from a 12-month high. On a similar note, GME has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.91. By itself, this SOIR shows put open interest roughly doubles call open interest among options expiring within three months, yet it also ranks in the top quartile of its annual range, signaling such a put-skew is uncommon. 

On a closer look, the front-month January options series -- which expires this Friday -- dominated the action during the past two weeks. The biggest open interest jump occurred at the January 25 put, with the January 23 put close behind. However, while most of the 23-strike puts appear to have been bought to open, data from the major options exchanges shows mostly sell-to-open activity at the January 25 put, meaning these traders were actually betting on GME holding above $25 through this week. 

In today's trading, GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME) shares are paring some of Friday's losses, up 2.5% at $22.29, despite a round of price-target cuts. Specifically, Ascendiant Capital, Mizuho, and Wedbush all lowered their price targets on GME, though the latter reiterated an "outperform" rating, and said the company could benefit from the debut of Nintendo Switch. Should GME continue to struggle, more analysts could abandon the bulls' camp. For instance, eight of 13 analysts recommend buying the shares, even though they're down 34% from their annual high of $33.72 from April. 

Turning to JCP, the stock is up 2.8% today at $6.95, on news the company is opening Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) shops inside more than 600 of its stores. Even with today's gains, though, the stock has dropped over 35% since its December high, and last week came dangerously close to new-low territory, also falling victim to weak holiday sales

At the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, long JCP calls have edged out long puts during the past two weeks. During this time, the February 8 call saw the largest open interest increase, with data from the major exchanges confirming substantial buy-to-open activity at the strike. As such, options traders are betting on the stock taking back the formerly supportive $8 level before the contracts expire on Friday, Feb. 17. 

As of Friday's close, J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) shares sported a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 22, meaning they've been badly oversold and may have been due for a bounce. The stock will have to fly in the face of skepticism, though; JCP short interest increased by almost 18% during the last reporting period alone, and now accounts for more than 24% of the stock's total available float. 

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 3:33 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Despite a down day for the broader stock market, Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT) is keeping its head above water -- last seen trading up 1.9% at $68.42, the leader among Dow stocks. Earlier, the retailer said it would create roughly 10,000 new U.S. jobs as part of a bigger effort by Donald Trump, a move that was applauded by the president-elect via his Twitter account. WMT options traders are getting in on the action, too, with volume running at two times what's typically seen at this point in the day -- although most of the activity has occurred on the put side.

By the numbers, 38,650 WMT puts have changed hands so far, compared to 19,984 calls. Most active is the stock's February 65 and 67.50 puts, which may have been used to initiate a ratio spread. Specifically, it looks like one trader may have sold to open 7,400 February 65 puts and bought to open 3,700 February 67.50 puts. If this is the case, the speculator expects WMT to retreat below $67.50 -- but find a floor near $65 -- over the next five weeks.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals today's put-skewed session is just more of the same in WMT's options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 2.14 ranks in the 88th annual percentile. In other words, puts have been bought to open over calls at a faster-than-usual clip.

In fact, total put open interest of 344,337 contracts is docked in the 98th percentile of its 12-month range, compared to 305,382 calls -- in the middling 45th annual percentile. Among near-term contracts, WMT's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.02 ranks higher than 98% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. Said simply, short-term speculators have rarely been as put-heavy toward WMT as they are now.

Drilling down on the front-month series, peak put open interest is located at the January 2017 65 strike, with 23,764 contracts outstanding. This could create an options-related floor for WMT through week's end, as the hedges related to these bets are unwound ahead of Friday's expiration.

Technically, WMT has struggled since topping out at an annual high of $75.19 in late August, down 9%. Nevertheless, although the shares are staring down historical headwinds, they have once again bounced from the $67.50 mark. This level supported a mid-October pullback, and stands at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Wal-Mart Stores Inc's (NYSE:WMT) May-to-August rally.

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 9:57 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on blue-chip media stock Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS), streaming stock Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), and oil-and-gas company Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NBL). Here's a quick look at today's bullish brokerage notes on DIS, NFLX, and NBL. 

  • DIS is up 0.6% at $108.70, after an upgrade to "buy" from "neutral" by Goldman Sachs, which also raised its price target to $134 from $109 -- in all-time high territory -- citing new park attractions, tax reform benefits, and a 2018 film schedule that "might be its best ever." DIS shares have enjoyed the support of their 10- and 20-day moving averages over the past few months, as the blue-chip media stock has added more than 20% from its October lows. Elsewhere, option bulls have been hitting the stock harder than usual, with Walt Disney Co's 10-day call/put volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) showing 2.27 calls bought to open for every put during the last two weeks. This ratio registers in the 81st percentile of its annual range, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for long DIS calls over puts.

  • NFLX is 0.2% higher at $134 -- and just off a new all-time high of $135.40 -- after a round of bullish analyst attention. Mizuho raised its rating to "buy" from "neutral" and issued a price-target hike to $152 from $112, while Goldman Sachs also raised its price target to $155. Set to report earnings tomorrow night, NFLX is up by more than 67% since its February lows, helped by a post-earnings bull gap in October. Near-term option players are more put-skewed than usual, though, with Netflix, Inc.'s Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.12 sitting at an annual high.

  • NBL is trading 4.2% higher at $38.97, after announcing it has entered into a deal to purchase Clayton Williams Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CWEI) for $2.7 billion. NBL has since received positive attention from several analysts, including an upgrade to "neutral" from "sell" at Seaport Global Securities, which also lifted its price target to $36 from $33. In addition, Jefferies and Wunderlich raised their price targets to $46 and $52, respectively. NBL is up more than 70% since hitting a seven-year low last January, and is on pace to take out both its 10- and 20-day trendlines for the first time since early December. With 2.96 puts bought to open for every call at the ISE/CBOE/PHLX over the last 10 weeks, however -- in the 80th percentile of its annual range -- it looks like Noble Energy, Inc. option players have been more bearish than usual.
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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 10:04 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

U.S. stocks are trading lower this morning, ahead of Friday's inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. Among specific equities in the spotlight are bank stock Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), healthcare giant UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH), and biotech Forward Pharma A/S (NASDAQ:FWP). Here's a quick look at what's driving MS, UNH, and FWP.

  • MS is 2.2% lower at $42.85, as a broader stock-market decline overshadows the company's better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report. Still, a number of analysts remain hesitant to upgrade the outperforming bank stock, which has added over 65% in the past 12 months. Specifically, eight of 17 brokerage firms still consider it just a "hold." Morgan Stanley touched an eight-year high of $44.60 on Friday, and a round of bullish analyst attention could have the shares topping this mark in the near future. 

  • UNH is also lower despite the company's strong quarterly results, with the shares down 1.4% at $159.56. This still leaves the stock over 46% higher on a year-over-year basis, with UnitedHealth Group Inc hitting an all-time high just last month. Options traders have taken a bullish approach at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The stock has a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.56 across these exchanges, which tops 89% of the past year's readings. In other words, calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.
  • FWP is blowing up this morning, last seen 56.5% higher at $28.72 -- touching an annual high of $30.00 along the way -- after Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) agreed to pay the company almost $1.3 billion to license all of its intellectual property. As such, the stock has now doubled since basing near $15 back in mid-December, and the shares could continue to rally if short sellers begin to throw in the towel. Specifically, almost three weeks' of buying power is controlled by these bearish bettors, going by Forward Pharma A/S' average trading volume. 

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Published on Jan 17, 2017 at 10:37 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Earnings Preview
Banks have dominated the start of earnings season, and won't be slowing down any time soon. This morning, in fact, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reported an earnings beat -- but, so far, the financial stock has failed to capitalize on the upbeat news. Looking ahead to Wednesday, both Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) will step into the confessional bright and early.

Starting with C, put buying has really picked up in recent weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.69 ranks just 14 percentage points from an annual peak. Plus, put open interest registers in the 96th percentile of its 12-month range.

That's not to say all these puts are bearish in nature. Despite being down 1.8% at $58.43, C stock is just a chip-shot from its post-financial crisis high of $61.63, notched on Jan. 4. So, it's possible traders could be scooping up puts -- especially at out-of-the-money strikes -- to hedge their long stock positions ahead of earnings.

Speaking of earnings, Citigroup Inc shares have tended to make modest moves in recent quarters. Following the bank's last three reports, the stock hasn't swung more than 0.3% in either direction, in the ensuing session. However, it still looks like a good time to purchase premium on C. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 25% ranks in the low 17th annual percentile -- hinting at muted short-term volatility expectations -- while its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 84 suggests the shares have historically been more volatile than the options market has priced in.

GS, meanwhile, has made some bolder single-session post-earnings moves of late, with four of the last five exceeding 2% in either direction. As with its sector peer, though, puts have been flying off the shelves ahead of tomorrow's earnings event. Put open interest checks in higher than 94% of comparable readings from the past year. In addition, the stock's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.69 sits only 4 percentage points from a 52-week peak -- which, as explained earlier, could be the work of either bearish speculators or shareholders hedging.

As with Citigroup, now appears to be an opportune time to purchase premium on GS options. The stock's SVI of 26% is near the bottom quartile of its annual range. Likewise, GS sports an SVS of 80.

On the charts, GS has been explosive of late. Since the U.S. presidential election, the bank shares have surged over 32% to trade at $240.60, despite being down 1.5% today. Not to mention, the stock isn't far from its nine-year high of $247.77, touched last week.

Analysts have been slow to climb aboard the bullish bandwagon, however. Specifically, Goldman Sachs Group Inc has received just 50% "buy" or better ratings from the 18 brokerage firms with coverage. That said, the tide may be starting to turn. Over the weekend, Barron's waxed optimistic on the shares (subscription required), explaining "Goldman stands to profit from a rebounding economy, which would bolster its trading business, and from rising interest rates, which could help its lending spreads."

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