Earnings season kicks off in earnest next week, when a number of big-cap financial names -- including Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) -- are set to report. Additionally, GS will join several of its fellow Dow components in the earnings confessional, with American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) and General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) among the many blue-chip names on the docket. And while speeches from a handful of Federal Reserve officials are likely to draw attention, it's the historical event in Washington D.C. that will hold Wall Street's gaze. Specifically, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 45th U.S. president on Friday, Jan. 20.

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

Markets will be closed on Monday, Jan. 16, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Wall Street will return to action first thing on Tuesday, Jan. 17, with the release of the Empire State manufacturing index and a speech from New York Fed President William Dudley both slated for before the opening bell, and a speech from San Francisco Fed President John C. Williams after the close. UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH), CSX Corporation (CSX), Morgan Stanley (MS), and United Continental (UAL) are scheduled to report earnings.

On Wednesday, Jan. 18, the consumer price index, industrial production data, and the Fed's Beige Book are all due. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take the mic. On the earnings front, GS, C, Netflix (NFLX), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Fastenal (FAST), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), and U.S. Bancorp (USB) are set to report.

The economic calendar heats up on Thursday, Jan. 19, with the release of housing starts, weekly jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey. Additionally, the holiday-delayed weekly crude inventories report will hit the Street, while Williams is also due to speak. Stepping up to the earnings plate will be AXP, International Business Machines (IBM), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), BB&T (BBT), KeyCorp (KEY), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), and Union Pacific (UNP).

While the week concludes on Friday, Jan. 20, with speeches from Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, all eyes will likely be on Trump's inauguration. Dow component GE will cap a week heavy with blue-chip earnings. Also heading the earnings confessional will be Kansas City Southern (KSU), Schlumberger (SLB), and SunTrust Banks (STI).

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Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) has been targeted by premium sellers in recent weeks, according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Over the past 10 sessions, options traders have sold to open 3.81 calls for each one they've purchased. This action is not been relegated to call players, though, considering 4.42 INTC short puts have been initiated in the last two weeks for each long one.

Drilling down, the majority of the action appears to be part of a three-way transaction that occurred on Wednesday, Jan. 4. Per Trade-Alert, one speculator last week sold to open a block of 20,000 weekly 2/10 33.50-strike puts to help fund the purchase of a long call spread using symmetrical 30,000-contract blocks of INTC's weekly 2/10 38- and 40-strike calls.

Open interest translations at each of these strikes support this theory, suggesting the speculator expects INTC to jump north of $38 by the close on Friday, Feb. 10, when the weekly series expires. This time frame that includes Intel's after-the-close earnings report on Friday, Jan. 26, as well as its annual investor day on Thursday, Feb. 9 -- two events that could lead to volatile trading.

In fact, heightened volatility expectations are currently being priced into INTC's near-term contracts ahead of these two key events -- per the stock's 30-day at-the-money implied volatility reading of 24.6%, which ranks in the 71st annual percentile. What's more, this metric settled at a more elevated 25.8% on Jan. 4, when the spread strategist sold premium at the short-term weekly 2/10 33.50-strike put and 40-strike call to offset the cost to buy the weekly 2/10 38-strike call.

Looking at the charts, shares of Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) have put in an impressive performance over the past 12 months, up nearly 15% to trade at $36.65. And while the stock is pulling back today amid a broader retreat among chipmakers -- after Gartner reported a fifth straight annual decline in global PC shipments -- INTC has found a reliable foothold in the $36.40-$36.50 neighborhood, a region that corresponds to its early September highs, and has served as a firm layer of support since mid-December.

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While today's broad-market sell-off may be scary enough for some, those who are superstitious consider Friday the 13th -- tomorrow's date, for those who haven't been keeping track -- to be among the unluckiest days of the year. But superstition rarely plays a part in the performance of stocks. Or does it? In the tables below, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White explored how the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has historically performed on Friday the 13th, compared to anytime returns.

As you can see, the data going back to 1950 shows that Friday the 13th has historically been a boon for stocks. In fact, the SPX has averaged a gain of 0.07% for the day, compared to an average daily gain of 0.05% anytime. Plus, the index has seen a positive return 57.5% of the time on Friday the 13th -- greater than the 53.6% positive rate for anytime returns. But has this pattern of outperformance changed over time? In the next table, White looked only at data back to 2007:

The difference in results is rather astounding. In the past 10 years, the SPX has notably underperformed on Friday the 13th, yielding a positive return just 50% of the time, and averaging a loss of 0.02%. That's in contrast with the S&P's anytime return of 0.03%, and positive 54% of the time, over the same period.

Need more proof that tomorrow could be a down day? The past three consecutive occurrences of Friday the 13th all saw losses, and reasonably significant ones, at that. Per the table below, these three unlucky days averaged a loss of 0.9 % -- not a great omen for tomorrow.

Don't feel too comfortable once tomorrow passes, either -- this year will have another Friday the 13th in October. Still, for traders trying to spy out a trading opportunity for tomorrow's peculiar date, check out this list of historically outperforming ETFs. Plus, stay tuned for an upcoming article identifying the best and worst SPX stocks on Friday the 13th in the past decade.

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Healthcare stocks were rocked on Wednesday when President-elect Donald Trump told reporters that drug companies have been "getting away with murder" and that "we're going to start bidding" to lower drug prices. The sector is recovering some today, and a closer look reveals ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ACAD) and Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB) could be on the verge of sharp upside moves. Below, we'll breakdown why ACAD and BIIB are well positioned to shrug off any near-term Trump-related headwinds.

Starting with ACAD, the shares have recently pulled back near their 40-day moving average. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the stock has pulled back to this level six times in the past three years, and has subsequently moved higher 83% of the time over a 21-day time frame, averaging a gain of 5.6%. So far so good, as ACAD was last seen 5.9% higher at $31.63. 

If the stock does rally, it would be bad news for the large number of traders who have shorted it. More specifically, short interest on ACAD is now at an all-time high, representing almost six days' worth of buying power, going by the security's average trading volume. What's more, it's an opportune time to buy premium on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.: the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 70% ranks in the 10th percentile of its annual range, meaning the options market is currently pricing in low volatility expectations on ACAD's near-term options. 

As for BIIB, the stock is nearing the 320-day moving average, a trendline that has historically resulted in outsized gains, looking back over the last three years. Specifically, the shares have moved higher three of the past four times they've pulled back to this trendline, averaging a 21-day gain of 6.7%. Today, BIIB is up 0.3% at $287.91.

An unwinding of bearish options positions could provide a lift for BIIB, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.26 ranks 1 percentage point from a 12-month high. Plus, Biogen Inc's front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) is 1.34, meaning put open interest outweighs call open interest among near-the-money options in the front-month series. BIIB could benefit as these seemingly bearish traders throw in the towel. 

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U.S. stocks are taking it on the chin this afternoon, with one Fed official warning of a possible economic slowdown. Among specific equities in focus today are sea freight firm DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS), daily deals stock Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN), and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Skyworks Solutions Inc (NASDAQ:SWKS). Here's a quick look at what's moving DRYS, GRPN, and SWKS.

• DRYS has spiraled 12.3% lower to $1.92 to land on the short-sale restricted list -- and earlier touched a record low of $1.84 -- despite the absence of a clear catalyst. This probably isn't what options traders were counting on, considering how call-skewed they are. DryShips Inc. sports a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.09, meaning calls outstrip puts by a roughly 10-to-1 margin among options expiring in the next three months. What's more, this ratio ranks in the low 4th percentile of its annual range.

• GRPN is up 3.1% at $3.61, with Trade-Alert citing rumors that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA) could be considering a takeover as the key driver. However, Groupon Inc shares are currently being contained by their 30-day moving average, which rejected them earlier this month and in early December. Options traders have been wagering on upside in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 7.62 GRPN calls for every put in the last 50 days -- a ratio ranking in the bullishly skewed 92nd annual percentile.

• SWKS is down 2.7% at $76.31, after Goldman Sachs cut its rating to "neutral" from "buy," and slashed its price target by $9 to $79, citing a potential loss of market share in 2017. Since late September, the shares have largely been in a holding pattern in the $72-$80 range. If options traders have their druthers, Skyworks Solutions Inc will break lower. The stock sports a 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.95, which rests just 8 percentage points from a 12-month peak. In other words, traders have been buying to open puts over calls at a near-extreme clip lately.

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Tomorrow is Friday the 13th, the first of just two in 2017, with the second one occurring in October. And while this date has struck terror into the heart of the superstitious, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has historically outperformed on this unlucky date looking back to 1950 -- although more recent returns could suggest an end-of-week struggle for stocks. Nevertheless, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White ran the numbers on S&P stocks that have traditionally outperformed and underperformed on Friday the 13th over the past 10 years. Burrito chain Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) tops the list of best stocks, while Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier Broadcom Ltd (NASDAQ:AVGO) leads the list of laggards.

CMG, for instance, has turned in a positive performance on Friday the 13th 78% of the time over the past decade, averaging a return of 0.8%. The stock could certainly use a boost, considering it has shed nearly one-quarter of its value since hitting an annual peak of $542.50 in early March. Plus, the stock's most recent rally was quickly halted by its 200-day moving average -- a trendline that has been ushering CMG lower for more than a year.

Despite the equity's long-term technical troubles, options traders have bought to open CMG calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip in recent weeks. In fact, the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.27 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks in the 76th annual percentile. Plus, eight of 24 analysts still maintain a "buy" or "strong buy" rating. Regardless of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s bullish Friday the 13th track record, the stock's slump could continue, should options bulls and/or analysts capitulate to its downtrend.

AVGO, meanwhile, has only turned in a positive Friday the 13th performance 15% of the time since the stock went public in August 2009 -- averaging a loss of 0.6%. This would only be a blip on AVGO's radar, though, considering the security is up a whopping 45.2% year-over-year. What's more, the shares tagged a record peak of $183.99 on Dec. 21, and were last seen lingering at $178.99.

AVGO put buyers have been busy in recent weeks, per the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.47 -- in the 87th annual percentile. Echoing this is Broadcom Ltd's top-heavy Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.32, which ranks higher than 88% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. Simply stated, short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual toward the stock. An unwinding of these bearish bets could translate into fresh tailwinds for AVGO.

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The iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) has struggled since the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and yesterday dropped as much as 1.7% -- and hit its lowest level since September 2009 -- amid President-elect Donald Trump's press conference. Additionally, the Mexican peso hit a record low during the highly anticipated event, with Trump reiterating his intent to create "a very large border tax" for companies who move operations out of the U.S. Against this backdrop, here's a closer look at EWW's technical backdrop.

After hitting a seven-year low of $41.23 yesterday, EWW is on the mend. At last check, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) is up 0.4% at $42.01, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its 2009-2013 surge. Widening the lens, EWW's 80-week moving average has acted as a rally-killer in recent years, with the ETF failing to notch a weekly close above this key trendline since 2014.

 

What's more, last week's rally attempt was quickly contained by EWW's 40-day moving average, which the shares have been staring up at since EWW's post-election drop. In fact, Nov. 9 was the ETF's worst day since 2008, with the shares plummeting 8.5% after Donald Trump's election victory. Currently, EWW has dropped 20% from its Nov. 8 close.

As such, EWW is nearing "oversold" territory, with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 32, indicating today's short-term bounce may have been in the cards. In addition, previous RSI readings around 30 have predicted short-term rallies for the iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) over the last several years.

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Investors have watched the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) circling the round 20,000 mark for weeks, with the index coming within half a point of the critical mark. And if it feels like the Dow is being especially coy about crossing the millennium threshold, that's because it is. In fact, the dance with the 20,000 level is making history, according to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Below is what it could mean for the Dow going forward.

The table below shows how many "failures" -- defined as the index getting within 1% of the even number without moving above it -- it took the Dow before first crossing millennium levels. By this standard, the Dow  20,000 has already had more failures than any other level, with 21 (counting today).  The Dow's 17,000 and 18,000 had the next-most failures before a first-time cross, with 17 and 14, respectively. It took only eight failures to topple 19,000.

The longer it takes the Dow to successfully perforate these key round-number levels -- whether for the first time or not -- the worse the index tends to perform. Below, White calculated the Dow's failures at key millennium markers, hitting the "reset" button with each successful cross. The Dow had to be below the level for at least 20 days before the failure tally -- what we'll call a "signal" -- started back up again. (For example, the Dow first moved above 18,000 on Dec. 23, 2014, and didn't conquer it again until Feb. 13, 2015. Between these dates, there were 12 failures in this signal.)

When the Dow has racked up 15 or more failures before toppling a millennium level -- there have been nine of these signals so far -- it's averaged a loss at each marker going out to three months. At that point, the Dow has been down 1.71%, on average, and higher just 44.4% of the time. Looking six months out, the Dow has eked out an average gain of just 0.04%, but was higher two-thirds of the time.

For comparison, when the Dow makes a successful millennium cross after seven or fewer failures -- there have been 13 of these signals -- it's averaged a three-month gain of 1.15%, and was higher 69.2% of the time. Looking six months out, the Dow was up an impressive 2.4%, and higher 61.5% of the time.

Interestingly, a crossing after eight to 14 failures seems to be the "sweet spot" in the short term, but foreboding in the intermediate-to-long term. After these signals -- 14 of 15 of which are measurable beyond one month -- the Dow has averaged a loss looking three and six months out.

Finally, for reference, here is a table of all of the Dow signals, sorted by the number of failures before each cross. The 2016 dance to retake the 18,000 level was the longest, with 40 failures in this stretch.

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Optimism edged higher in the week ended Jan. 6, according to the latest Investors Intelligence (II) poll -- which measures the percentage of investors that are bullish, bearish, or predicting a correction. Specifically, as multiple stock indexes carved out new highs, bullish sentiment among advisers rose 0.4% to 60.2%. Conversely, the percentage of bears among advisors fell 1.2% to 18.4%. Of investors polled, 21.4% are expecting a correction -- up from 20.6% in the week prior.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the bulls are near their highest level since July 2014, while the bears are hovering around their lowest point since August 2015. What's more, the bulls-minus-bears line is at 40.3% -- its fourth straight week above 40%, which we consider an extreme indicator of optimism, and well above the average reading of 21%.

Such extreme optimism could spell trouble for stocks in the near term. For starters, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) -- which is trading near the psychologically significant round 20,000 mark -- has averaged a loss in near-term time frames after crossing an even 1,000-point interval while the percentage of bulls in the II poll was over 50%. Meanwhile, the current bulls-minus-bears line is ranked in the 93rd percentile of all other comparable readings going back to 1972, and historical data points to an S&P 500 Index (SPX) underperformance looking at all time frames in the subsequent two-month period.

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My colleague, Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal, noted recently that the percentage of bullish respondents in a weekly sentiment poll by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) has been below 50% for the past two years, or 104 straight weeks. We have data from this poll going back to 1987, and this is just the second time we've seen a streak like this. The last streak lasted from January 1993 until early 1995. Stocks were remarkable following this period, so it made me curious to compare that streak to the current streak, and to see if there's anything to streaks like this in general. 

Current Streak vs. 1990's Streak: Interestingly, both streaks started when the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was at or near all-time highs. When the streak began in early 1993, the index had gained about 30% over the previous two years, and when this recent streak began, it was up about 40% in the previous two years. So there are some parallels leading up to the streak.

The chart below shows the SPX return during the two-year streaks of AAII bulls being below 50%. The second chart shows the bullish percent during the streak. Looking at the return chart, it's easy to see why the bulls remained below 50% during first half of the current streak, as stocks struggled. Stocks continued to do well during the prior streak, so it is a little mind-boggling why the bulls did not get to 50%. In hindsight, that pessimism was a very good contrarian signal leading to big gains over the next few years. Ultimately, the returns ended up somewhat similar over the two-year period.

In the second chart showing the percentage of bulls, you can see in the previous streak the percentage of bulls did get very near 50% before quickly retreating when stocks finally began to struggle. During the current streak, the bulls haven't been close to the 50% mark until very recently. 

In conclusion, when comparing these two instances, I would say the bullish contrarian case was stronger during the streak in the 1990s. Stocks struggled during the first part of the current two-year streak, so it's understandable that the bullish percentage fell. Maybe it fell more than warranted and is taking some time to recover, but it's still not hard to understand. Compare that to the prior streak, where stocks continued higher over the next full year, and yet the bullish percentage still fell to below 20%. Looking back, it seems like such an obvious "buy" signal.

Bulls Below 50% Streaks: I mentioned earlier that I would take a more general look at how stocks do following streaks. The theory would be the lack of bulls is an indication that a significant number of investors haven't bought into the market. Thus, there is a significant amount of sideline money waiting to be utilized. When investors finally turn bullish, that money moves to stocks, creating a sustained rally.

So do the numbers support this theory? The first table below shows returns for the S&P 500 after the percentage of AAII bulls had been below 50% for at least six months and then moved above 50%. Also, the SPX had to be positive during the streak. Using this as a signal gives us 16 prior occurrences. The returns look only slightly bullish when compared to anytime returns since 1989 (the year of the first signal). When you get out to three months and beyond, the average return is better than the anytime average -- though not by a remarkable amount -- and the same goes for the percent positive. For example, a year after a signal, the SPX averages a gain of 11.22%, with 81% of the returns positive. The typical numbers are an 8.50% return and positive 78% of the time.
 

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Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG) is breaking from history. Typically the best stock to own in the first quarter, SIG is getting trounced at midday -- down 3.4% at $84.52. The shares are sinking after the company saw same-store sales fall 4.6% in the holiday season, and forecast a 2%- to 2.5%-drop in comparable-store sales for 2017.

While today's bearish gap is a punch to the gut of shareholders, it's probably being well-received within the options crowd. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open 7.20 SIG puts for every call in the last two weeks -- albeit on relatively light volume. The corresponding put/call volume ratio rests just 8 percentage points from a 12-month peak.

Short sellers should be in good shape, too. Over 16% of SIG's float is sold short, which would take more than seven sessions to cover, at its average daily volumes. However, it appears some shorts missed the boat, as short interest plunged 24.2% over the past two reporting periods.

Technically speaking, SIG is at a critical juncture. The stock recently breached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its January 2016 highs and September 2016 lows, suggesting more downside could be just around the corner.

Perhaps Signet Jewelers Ltd.'s (NYSE:SIG) best hopes of a quick rebound rest on its 320-week moving average, which roughly corresponds with the round $80 level. The long-term trendline was supportive in late 2016 and, prior to that, in 2011. On the other hand, a breach of the moving average could portend a run to new multi-year lows.

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American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) has joined sector peer United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL) in today's broader airline rally, after the company issued an upbeat December traffic report and raised its fourth-quarter unit revenue estimate. Also boosting the airline stock is a preliminary report from The Wall Street Journal indicating the Justice Department will not pursue a collusion case against AAL and several of its sector peers (subscription required). Today's lift has AAL shares once again challenging a key level of resistance, prompting one option player to give their short call position a little more wiggle room.

Taking a quick look at AAL's technicals, the stock has been on a steady trek higher since bottoming near $25 in late July, up 96%. The shares also recently rebounded off their 50-day moving average, while their 80-day moving average contained several pullbacks in the third quarter of 2016. However, the shares are staring up at the round $50 level, which could potentially serve as stiff resistance. In fact, several attempts to overtake this mark -- which includes the stock hitting a Dec. 9 annual high of $50.64 -- have resulted in zero daily closes above it. In fact, AAL tapped an intraday peak of $49.90 earlier today, but the shares were last seen enjoying a slimmer 0.3% lead to trade at $48.64.

With American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) trending higher above support and continuing to challenge resistance amid positive fundamental news, one short call trader has seemingly rolled her short call position up and out. According to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), one block of 993 February 50 calls was bought to close, while another block of 993 May 60 calls was simultaneously sold to open. If this is the case the trader is extending the shelf-life of her call-writing position and rolling up the strike to allow for more additional short-term upside. 

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