Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 2:43 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis
  • By the Numbers
Yesterday, we took a look at 25 stocks that could soar in March, based on historical returns. Below, Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White offers up a chart showing the worst stocks to own in March during the last 10 years. Each stock qualified for the list by trading at least one million shares per day and/or weekly options, and costing at least $8 per share as of last Friday's close. Among the worst performers is one stock that's been in the news lately, Oprah favorite Weight Watchers International, Inc. (NYSE:WTW).

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WTW got rocked late last month following a disappointing earnings report, losing 29% in a single session. While the shares are 2.1% higher today at $12.02, they're still a far cry from their mid-November annual high of $28.05, reached after Oprah Winfrey unveiled her stake in the weight-loss concern.

If past is prologue, more trouble could be ahead this month. During the past 10 years, WTW has finished March higher just twice. On average, the stock has lost 3.4% during the month, including an astounding 38.3% last March:

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Nonetheless, it looks as if option traders are bullishly arrayed on WTW. During the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open over four calls for each put. The resultant call/put volume ratio of 4.23 ranks in the bullishly skewed 76th annual percentile.

It's likely that not all of these option traders are necessarily upbeat toward Weight Watchers International, Inc. (NYSE:WTW), though. With short interest representing 64.4% of the stock's float, it's possible short sellers have been buying calls to hedge their downside bets. However, if WTW once again runs into headwinds this month, a capitulation among "vanilla" bulls could pressure them even lower.

Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 3:02 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

Biopharmaceutical firm Kite Pharma Inc (NASDAQ:KITE) reported a slimmer-than-predicted fourth-quarter loss after Monday's close, sending the shares soaring higher -- up 14.5% at $51.20 this afternoon. In the wake of last night's earnings report, both traders and analysts have scrambled to adjust their expectations on KITE stock.

On the charts, KITE touched an all-time high of $89.84 last November -- but the stock then quickly plummeted to an annual low of $38.41 last month, shedding more than 57% of its value from peak to trough. And since early February, KITE shares have repeatedly been rejected by resistance in the $51 area.

In light of the stock's rapid plunge, short sellers have heavily targeted KITE. Short interest rose more than 9% in the last two-week reporting period -- and now accounts for nearly 15% of the stock's total available float. At KITE's average daily volume, it would take about a week for short sellers to buy back all of these shorted shares.

While today's post-earnings pop suggests that some of the shorts may already be stampeding for the exits, it's worth noting that KITE is now staring down its 50-day moving average. Currently located at $51.75, this trendline lies just north of existing resistance near $51, as well as KITE's intraday peak today of $51.60. If the shares back down from this tough technical test, it could embolden more shorts to keep piling on.

On the other end of the sentiment spectrum, analysts were unanimously bullish on KITE ahead of last night's earnings report. Every analyst covering the stock currently gives KITE the equivalent of a "strong buy" rating. However, this morning, analysts at Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, Canaccord Genuity, and Stifel all cut their price targets on the security -- suggesting KITE's quarterly performance didn't quite live up to this group's high hopes. Any downgrades or additional bearish notes could apply fresh pressure to Kite Pharma Inc (NASDAQ:KITE) in the days and weeks ahead.

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Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 3:05 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on drugmaker PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:PTCT), weight-loss stock Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc (NASDAQ:ZLTQ), and solar energy stock First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on PTCT, ZLTQ, and FSLR.

  • PTCT continues to fall, earlier hitting at an all-time low of $5.29. At last check, the shares were off 30.3% at $5.67, as analysts slash their expectations after the company reported a larger-than-forecast fourth-quarter loss. Included in the brokerage bunch were Cowen, BofA-Merrill Lynch, and Wedbush, which all reduced their outlooks on PTC Therapeutics, Inc. to the equivalent of "neutral," with the latter lowering its price target to $11 from $27. The shares have lost almost 83% in 2016, due mostly to devastating news pertaining to the company's muscle disorder treatment, translarna, and short sellers have taken notice. Specifically, at average daily volumes, it'd take a remarkable 17 sessions for bears to buy back their shares, with over one-third of PTCT's float sold short. 
  • ZLTQ has fallen 10.3% to $20.65, after the company's fourth-quarter earnings missed expectations. Maxim responded with a $10 price-target reduction to $40, while Leerink raised its price target to $40 from $37. If the shares don't turn things around, they could revisit their annual low of $18.41 from mid-February. Specifically, seven of the eight brokerage firms that cover Zeltiq Aesthetics Inc say it's a "strong buy," and none rate it a "sell," even though the stock's 46% below its Aug. 6 record high of $38.49. In other words, further losses could be exacerbated by additional bearish brokerage notes.
  • FSLR's post-earnings rally has stalled today, following a downgrade to "neutral" from "overweight" at J.P. Morgan Securities. The shares were last seen 3.6% lower at $69.29, though they're still roughly 21% above their Jan. 20 year-to-date low of $57.20. In today's trading, call volume is outpacing put volume, which is unusual for First Solar, Inc. For instance, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.48 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) arrives in the 93rd percentile of its annual range. Should the shares resume their longer-term uptrend, an unwinding of these bearish bets could help fuel the fire.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: Barrick Gold Corporation, Transocean LTD, and Schlumberger Limited and Analyst Downgrades: Bank of America Corp, Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc, and Workday Inc.
Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 3:17 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News

Infamous short seller Citron Research today tweeted that it foresees electric car manufacturer Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) falling to $100 per share by year's end due to supply and demand problems. As a result, TSLA stock sold off sharply, falling 3.3% to $185.56.

Looking closer, Citron is certainly not alone in its pessimistic outlook. Put buying has been extremely popular on TSLA recently; plus, short interest remains elevated. Specifically, roughly 31% of the stock's float is sold short, and it'd take them almost four days to repurchase their positions, at average daily volumes. 

Analysts are also skeptical of the stock. For instance, 10 of the 14 brokerage firms with coverage on TSLA say it's a "hold" or "sell."

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has fought back from its two-year low of $141.05 in February, but remains a long-term technical laggard. Specifically, the stock is 35.3% below July's annual high of $286.65. 

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Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 9:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on financial giant Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), drugmaker Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX), and cloud concern Workday Inc (NYSE:WDAY). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on BAC, VRX, and WDAY.

  • Raymond James weighed in on a number of bank stocks, including BAC -- where the brokerage firm cut its price target to $16 from $17.50. Ahead of the bell, though, the shares are 1.3% higher, after closing at $12.52 yesterday. It's been a rough 2016 for Bank of America Corp, which has lost more than one-quarter of its value on a year-to-date basis amid sector-wide headwinds. Not surprisingly, the stock's options pits are tilted in a decidedly bearish direction. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), BAC's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.31 ranks in the top quartile of its annual range, indicating traders have been buying to open bearish bets over bullish at a quicker-than-usual clip of late.
  • In what's becoming a pattern, VRX received yet another round of bearish brokerage notes this morning. This time, RBC downgraded its rating on the stock to "sector perform" from "outperform" and slashed its price target to $85 from $194. In addition, Jefferies cut its price target to $106 from $172. On the charts, Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc has gotten buried, and yesterday it lost 18.4% to $65.80 after the company confirmed it faces "several ongoing investigations" by regulators, and received a subpoena from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Nonetheless, the stock has crept 0.4% higher ahead of the open. On the options front, short-term traders have rarely been so call-skewed toward VRX in the past year, based on its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.92 -- which sits below 95% of all other readings from the prior 12 months.
  • WDAY is set to pop 7.2% at the open, after the company reported higher-than-expected revenue during the fourth quarter. However, the software maker's sales guidance disappointed, prompting a raft of price-target cuts on Wall Street. No fewer than 10 analysts lowered their price targets on Workday Inc, with only Piper Jaffray breaking ranks -- raising its price target to $61 from $48. On the charts, the shares have been coming back since hitting a three-year low of $47.32 on Feb. 9, up 27.7% at $60.45. Option traders aren't buying the bounce, based on WDAY's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.39, which ranks in the bearishly skewed 70th annual percentile.
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Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 9:46 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on commodity stocks Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX) and Transocean LTD (NYSE:RIG), as well as Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on ABX, RIG, and SLB.

  • Deutsche Bank offered its two cents on a number of mining stocks this morning, and for ABX, that meant a price-target hike to $14.50 from $12. Out of the gate, the shares have slipped 0.9% at $13.77, though they've surged 133% since hitting a record low of $5.91 in late September. More positive analyst attention could be coming the way of Barrick Gold Corporation, as well. Of the 14 brokerage firms tracking the stock, nine rate it a "hold" or worse, leaving plenty of room for potential upgrades.

  • RIG is unchanged this morning at $8.66, despite an upgrade to "hold" from "sell" at Canaccord Genuity (though the brokerage also cut its price target to $8.50 from $10) and an upward price-target revision to $6.25 from $4.50 at Goldman Sachs. Separately, Moody's last night downgraded Transocean LTD's credit rating to B2 from BA2, while offering up a "stable" outlook. Technically speaking, the stock has had a brutal year, down 30% in 2016. Some of the selling pressure comes courtesy of short sellers. A lofty 38.6% of RIG's float is sold short, representing more than two weeks' worth of trading activity, at the stock's average daily volumes.

  • RBC upped its price target on SLB to $95 from $88, a 31% premium to its current perch at $72.37 -- up 0.9% in early trading. Shareholders are probably hoping the bullish brokerage note can get the stock over the proverbial hump, as it's been struggling to overcome resistance at its 120-moving average for the past couple weeks. On the other hand, most option traders probably want to see the trendline reject Schlumberger Limited, which has rallied sharply since hitting a three-year low of $59.60 in late January. Speculators at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) have bought to open 2.69 SLB puts for each call during the last 10 days. The corresponding put/call volume ratio registers in the bearishly skewed 88th percentile of its annual range.
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Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 9:49 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks
Rising crude futures have stocks pointed firmly higher this morning, with traders awaiting data on manufacturing and consumer spending. Among equities in focus are solar energy stock Sunedison Inc (NYSE:SUNE), global exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE:ICE), and financial firm Barclays PLC (ADR) (NYSE:BCS).

  • SUNE has dropped 24.5% at the open to $1.50, after the company announced that it will delay its annual report due to an ongoing investigation into the company's finances. Despite a big M&A-induced pop late last week, Sunedison Inc has given up nearly 96% of its value since last July -- and hit a 14-year low of $1.21 last Wednesday. Traders have been understandably wary -- short interest on the stock accounts for nearly 43% of SUNE's available float. Meanwhile, SUNE is ripe for a fresh round of downgrade -- currently eight of the 14 brokerages following the stock maintain a "buy" rating or better.
  • ICE is 3.2% lower at $230.89, amid speculation it is considering making an offer for London Stock Exchange Group Plc. Additionally, CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) is reportedly also considering throwing its hat into an already crowded takeover ring that includes Deutsche Boerse. Since notching a record high of $268.89 on Feb. 1, Intercontinental Exchange Inc has shed 14.1%. Still, seven out of 11 analysts say the stock is a "buy" or better. And while short interest on ICE rose nearly 35% during the most recent two-week reporting period, it accounts for only 1.5% of the equity's total float. In other words, ICE's bearish bandwagon is far from full.
  • BCS has dropped 7.3% out of the gate to $8.75, after reporting a full-year loss. Barclays PLC also announced it is cutting its dividend and planning to sell off its African assets. The shares hit a four-year low of $8.52 in mid-February, but analysts haven't given up their optimism just yet. All three firms providing coverage rate the stock a "strong buy," and the average 12-month price target of $16.19 sits at a level not seen since September. It appears some options traders have been hoping for a bounce, though. Amid relatively low volume, BCS sports a top-heavy 10-day call/put volume ratio of 2.00 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX).
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Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 10:50 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
A big jump in quarterly revenue wasn't enough for Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT) to meet the Street's consensus estimate (though it topped the average earnings forecast). As such, the stock is selling off sharply, down 4.7% at $73.78, and options volume has gone through the roof.

Activity is red-hot -- especially on the put side of the aisle, where almost 8,000 contracts are on the tape, or 14 times the expected intraday rate. Accounting for the majority of this volume is a fresh block of 5,200 April 70 puts, though it's unclear whether the contracts were bought or sold, as the purchase price was between the bid and the ask price. On the other hand, clear-cut buy-to-open activity has been detected at the weekly 3/4 74-strike call, as short-term traders expect MDT to bounce back by week's end, when the options expire.

Call buying has been the strategy of choice for some time, according to data at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). During the past 10 weeks, traders across those exchanges have bought to open 3.91 calls for every put, and the corresponding call/put volume ratio outstrips four-fifths of comparable readings from the last 12 months.

This optimism extends beyond MDT's options pits. In fact, 12 of 16 analysts consider the shares worthy of a "buy" or better rating, with not a single "sell" opinion on the books. Plus, just 1.1% of the stock's float is dedicated to short interest.

Technically speaking, it's been an up-and-down year for Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT). While the stock has rallied powerfully off its late-September lows near $64, repeated attempts to clear the $78-$79 area have come up short. With today's gap lower, MDT is testing its 80-week moving average, which has recently served as support, and hasn't been breached on a weekly closing basis since late September.

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Published on Mar 1, 2016 at 11:31 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stock Market News
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity
Shares of Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) have jumped 4.2% today to $13.03, after the Detroit automaker reported a better-than-expected 20.4% rise in February auto sales -- thanks to a big boost from sales of SUVs and crossovers. The positive price action has speculative players flooding into the stock's options pits, although not everyone is convinced F can maintain this upward momentum.

Overall, option volume is running at three times what's typically seen at this point in the day. By the numbers, roughly 46,000 calls have changed hands, compared to 37,000 puts -- with volume on both sides nearing the top percentile of their respective annual ranges.

The most active front-month F option is the March 12 put, where it looks like some of the activity may be of the buy-to-open kind. If this is the case, speculative traders are banking on F retreating back below the $12 mark by the close on Friday, March 18 -- when front-month options expire.

Meanwhile, shorter-term call players are betting on the $13 level to serve as overhead resistance over the next two weeks. Specifically, it appears as if new positions are being sold to open at F's weekly 3/11 13-strike call, the stock's most active option overall.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals today's bearish bias is just par for the course among F options traders. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for instance, the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.53 sits in the 71st annual percentile.

Additionally, F's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.98 sits higher than 79% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. In other words, short-term speculators are more put-heavy than usual toward shares of Ford Motor.

Technically speaking, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) has shed 18% since hitting its most recent high of $15.84 in late October. More recently, the $13 mark has served as a stern level of resistance since early January. In fact, F has not finished a session north of here since Jan. 6.

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Published on Feb 29, 2016 at 12:51 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Intraday Option Activity
  • Stock Market News
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) is making headlines today, sending the stock higher -- and setting off a barrage of seemingly bullish options activity. The company was mentioned in Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE:BRK.A) shareholders, with the Oracle of Omaha saying he likes AXP "fine, but there is no question it will have an abundance of competition." Meanwhile, American Express said it will close the sale of its Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) card portfolio to Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) in June.

AXP was last seen 1.3% higher at $56.07, and calls are crossing the tape at four times the average intraday pace. Most of the action has transpired at the weekly 3/4 55-strike call, where more than 9,100 contracts have traded. It looks like a healthy portion of the calls may have been bought to open, suggesting the buyers expect AXP to extend its journey north of $55 through Friday's close, when the options expire.

Since touching a near-four-year low of $50.27 on Feb. 11, AXP has been on the mend. In fact, the stock is on pace to notch a close above its 30-day moving average for the first time since mid-October. However, the security still has a ways to go before filling its Jan. 22 post-earnings bear gap.

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Today's seemingly bullish options activity is relatively rare for American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) -- not surprising, considering the aforementioned long-term technical troubles. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.05 stands higher than 83% of all other readings from the past year. In other words, option buyers have picked up AXP puts over calls at a faster-than-usual clip during the past 10 weeks.


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Published on Feb 29, 2016 at 12:55 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Weekly Options
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume during the past 10 trading days. Stocks highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two notable names are iPhone parent Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and e-commerce company Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN).

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Puts have been flying off the shelves in AAPL's options pits in recent weeks, with those purchasing the contracts continuing to get quite a deal. In fact, the stock's April 100 put holds the largest amount of open interest of any AAPL option, with 227,550 contracts currently in residence.

According to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), nearly 32,600 contracts have been bought to open here since early December. In other words, speculators are betting on AAPL to remain south of the century mark through back-month options expiration at the close on Friday, April 15.

Today, AAPL is making a run higher -- up 1% at $97.83, after CEO Tim Cook pledged to boost the company's quarterly dividend on an annual basis. In addition, Pacific Crest said Chinese smartphone demand seems to be improving, and sources say Apple has moved the launch of its new iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch to the week of March 21. Meanwhile, all eyes are on Apple Inc.'s impasse with the FBI, with Warren Buffett among the latest in a growing list of notable names to weigh in.

Put buyers have also been busy in AMZN's options arena. At the ISE, Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.10 sits above 89% of all other readings taken in the last 12 months. Simply stated, puts have been bought over calls at a faster clip just 11% of the time within the past year.

Looking back over the past two weeks, the stock's March 550 put has seen a notable increase in open interest. At the ISE, the majority of positions have been bought to open here throughout 2016. As such, speculative players are betting on AMZN to breach $550 by the close on Friday, March 18 -- when front-month options expire.

Similar to AAPL, AMZN is moving north today -- up 0.9% at $560.37. Earlier, the company said it has partnered up with British supermarket Morrisons for a grocery delivery service to Amazon.com, Inc. customers in the U.K.

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Published on Feb 29, 2016 at 1:47 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Update
Analysts are weighing in on drugmaker Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX), oil-and-gas stock Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE:SWN), and bling retailer Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG). Here's a quick roundup of today's brokerage notes on KERX, SWN, and SIG.

  • KERX is 12.9% higher at $4.11 -- on pace for its best session in two years -- thanks to an upgrade to "outperform" from "market perform" at FBR. The analysts waxed optimistic on Keryx Biopharmaceuticals' drug pipeline, including Auryxia's prospects in 2016 and a drug to treat anemic pre-dialysis patients, which has the "potential to be a major driver for the stock." Although today's pop has lost some steam in the face of KERX's 80-day moving average, it could catch quite a few shorts off-guard. More than one-third of KERX's float is dedicated to short interest, representing close to 20 days' worth of pent-up buying demand, at the stock's average pace of trading.
  • SWN is 8% lower at $5.87 -- on track for a third straight loss, and still reeling from a dismal earnings showing on Friday. Pressuring the shares is a round of negative analyst attention, with Raymond James downgrading SWN to "underperform" from "market perform," and Scotia Howard Weil and RBC cutting their price targets to $7.50 and $9, respectively. Most analysts are already in Southwestern Energy Company's bearish corner, with just six out of 22 offering up "buy" or better opinions.
  • SIG is enjoying a rally after estimating fourth-quarter earnings above estimates, and approving an 18% increase to its quarterly dividend. Furthermore, Topeka subsequently lifted its price target on SIG to $169 from $160. The shares were last seen 10.2% higher at $109.26, and on pace to end atop their 30-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 22. Meanwhile, Signet Jewelers Ltd. calls are trading at 21 times the average intraday clip today, with Trade-Alert attributing most of the action to a large, bullish ratio spread at the March 115 and 120 calls.
For other stocks in analysts' crosshairs, read Analyst Upgrades: Newfield Exploration Co., Yahoo! Inc., and Visa Inc and Analyst Downgrades: Ambarella Inc, Baidu Inc, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc.

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