Earnings Season Highlights

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A collection of noteworthy post-earnings reactions
Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 9:21 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Buzz Stocks

The Dow appears set for a fifth straight loss, as traders digest the latest interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB). Among specific equities in the spotlight are streaming media stock Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), cybersecurity issue Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:CHKP), and transportation concern CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX). Here's a quick look at what's driving NFLX, CHKP, and CSX.

  • NFLX is up 7.1% ahead of the open, on pace to hit a new record high out of the gate, after reporting fourth-quarter earnings above expectations. Boosting the shares further is the company's largest-ever quarterly increase in subscribers, topping even Netflix, Inc.'s own forecasts, with 7.05 million users added during the period. Analysts have been rushing to weigh in on the news, with Macquarie offering an upgrade to "neutral" from "underperform," while no fewer than 14 brokerage firms raised their price targets on the stock. At $133.26, NFLX has added more than 23% year-over-year, but not everyone is likely to be cheering this morning's gains, as near-term options traders are currently at a put-skewed extreme.
  • An earnings beat has CHKP up 6.7% in pre-market trading, on track to open at its highest level since 2001. The shares have been stair-stepping higher since September, but the brokerage bunch has yet to adjust, with 13 out of 23 analysts rating Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. a "hold" or "strong sell." What's more, the average 12-month price target of $86.48 sits below last night's close at $89.61. Simply stated, a round of overdue upgrades and/or price-target hikes could add fuel to CHKP's fire.
  • CSX is poised to tack on 19% at the bell, which would put the shares well into never-before-seen territory. Boosting the stock is news Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (USA) (NYSE:CP) CEO Hunter Harrison has stepped down ahead of his expected July departure, to join forces with activist investor Paul Hilal. The plan is reportedly for the pair to force a shake-up at CSX Corporation, which would put Harrison in a senior management role. Analysts have since taken a favorable view, as Morgan Stanley and Scotiabank both upgraded the stock -- to "equal weight" and "outperform," respectively -- while also raising their price targets. Citigroup also offer a price-target hike, to $51 from $41. CSX had already added 62% over the past 12 months, as of last night's finish at $36.88, but short sellers may find this pending pop hard to digest. At CSX's average daily volumes, it would take two weeks to buy back the 7.7% of the stock's total float that's wrapped up in short interest. 

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 9:54 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Upgrades
Analysts are weighing in on electric automaker Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), as well as former TSLA partner Mobileye NV (NYSE:MBLY) and optical components maker Oclaro, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCLR). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish analyst notes on TSLA, MBLY, and OCLR stocks.

  • TSLA is up 3.8% at $247.20, after an upgrade to "overweight" from "equal weight" by Morgan Stanley, which also hiked its price target to $305 -- all-time high territory -- from $242. The brokerage firm cited a "supportive political environment," due to CEO Elon Musk's recent ties with President-elect Donald Trump, as well as improved expectations for TSLA's Model 3 launch. J.P. Morgan Securities also issued a price-target hike to $188 from $180. Separately, Panasonic expressed interest in expanding its partnership with Tesla Motors, with the company stating it is "deeply interested in Tesla's self-driving system." TSLA has been on a tear upward since its late-2016 bottom near the $180 level, gaining roughly 24% in three months. Even with its recent technical strength, near-term option players are more put-skewed than at any point in the last 12 months, with TSLA's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.86 docked at an annual high. An unwinding of these bets could provide further tailwinds for Tesla Motors Inc.

  • MBLY is trading 4.3% higher at $43.84, after Goldman Sachs raised its rating to "buy" from "neutral," and raised its price target to $50 from $40. The shares are now up more than 30% from their late-December lows, and could close north of their 20-month moving average for the first time since August. In the option pits, bulls have been ramping up their exposure to Mobileye NV, with 4.20 calls bought to open for every put option over the last 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio is higher than 88% of all other readings from the past year, pointing to a healthier-than-usual appetite for long calls over puts.

  • OCLR is up 14.6% at $9.32, after delivering an upbeat fiscal second-quarter outlook, and being bombarded with optimistic analyst attention in the hours since, including a trio of price-target hikes from Stifel, Craig-Hallum, and B. Riley, to $12, $14, and $15.50, respectively. OCLR has added more than 180% in the past year, though the shares have been churning in the $8-$10 range since early November. Some investors still maintain a healthy sense of skepticism toward Oclaro, Inc., however. Short interest grew 20.5% over the last reporting period, and now accounts for more than 10% of OCLR's float.
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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 10:29 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Most Active Options Update
The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume among mid-cap names during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are basic materials stocks United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) and Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD). Here's a closer look at how options traders are lining up on X and STLD.

most active options mid jan 19

X is having a rare down day, after Citigroup lowered its opinion of the U.S. steel sector to "neutral," citing a potential drop in steel prices in the second half of 2017. Regarding the stock itself, the brokerage firm cut its rating to "neutral" from "buy," but boosted its price target to $37 from $21.

Amid the negative attention, X shares were last seen 4.4% lower at $33.38. Long term, however, the stock has been phenomenal, nearly quintupling in value on a year-over-year basis. Today's pullback has X perched atop its 50-day moving average, and a bounce from here could signal the stock has more room to run.

Options traders are certainly counting on it. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), U.S. Steel has amassed a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 1.60 -- in the bullishly skewed 91st annual percentile. Meanwhile, those looking to place short-term options bets are in luck. The stock sports a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97, suggesting the shares have made much larger moves over the past year than the options market has priced in.

Turning to STLD, the stock has dropped 2% at $36.51, but has still more than doubled from this time last year. Citigroup's only move on the shares was to lift their price target to $43 from $30 -- in all-time-high territory -- without issuing a downgrade. This glass-half-full approach echoes what's being seen across the Street, where nine of 12 analysts rate STLD a "buy" or better, without a single "sell" assessment to be found.

Not to mention, call buyers have been bombarding the steel stock. STLD's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX call/put volume ratio stands at a top-heavy 16.27, outstripping 92% of all readings from the past year. As with X, it's a good time to purchase short-term STLD options, from a volatility perspective, given its SVS of 78.

Of note, Steel Dynamics, Inc. will report earnings next Tuesday evening. Last year, the stock advanced in the session subsequent to these quarterly events three out of four times. In fact, following the company's most recent earnings release in October, STLD tacked on a gaudy 5.2% -- which the aforementioned call buyers would certainly welcome again.

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 10:44 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Analyst Downgrades
Analysts are weighing in on nutrition retailer GNC Holdings Inc (NYSE:GNC), steel stock AK Steel Holding Corporation (NYSE:AKS), and retail chain Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT). Here's a quick look at today's bearish brokerage notes on GNC, AKS, and TGT.

  • GNC is down 13.4% at $9.66 -- and on the short-sale restricted list -- after a downgrade from Goldman Sachs to "sell" from "neutral," which said "headwinds will be exacerbated by GNC's brand re-launch." The brokerage firm also lowered its price target to $8 from $12. Earlier, GNC touched a new all-time low of $9.46. The shares have been stair-stepping lower over the past year, with breakout attempts repeatedly contained by their 80-day moving average. In the option pits, bearish betting has ramped up in recent weeks. GNC Holdings Inc's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) of 8.29 sits just 3 percentage points from an annual peak.

  • AKS is trading 6.1% lower at $9.46, after a downgrade to "sell" from "neutral" by Citigroup, which also slammed the broader sector. Nevertheless, the brokerage firm raised its price target on AK Steel Holding Corporation to $8 from $5. AKS, which has slipped from its recent multi-year high of $11.39, is still up more than 400% over the last 12 months. In the option pits, 4.85 calls have been bought to open for every put over the last 10 days at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX. In other words, traders have high hopes ahead of next Tuesday morning's earnings report.

  • TGT is down 0.4% at $66.58, extending yesterday's losses, after a downgrade to "sell" by Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs also slashed its price target to $67 from $77, and J.P. Morgan Securities lowered its price target to $74 from $79. The shares are now down 16% from their near-term peak from late November. Short sellers may be cheering today's drop, with short interest up 10% over the last two reporting periods, and shorted shares now accounting for 6.1% of Target Corporation's float. This would take 8.8 days to cover, at TGT's average daily volume. 
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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 11:14 AM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis
  • Earnings Preview

Tech stock and Dow component International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) is 0.3% lower at $166.24 today, as the company prepares to report fourth-quarter earnings after tonight's close -- and it appears traders may be bracing for a repeat of history. The shares have moved to the downside in the session after earnings for at least the past eight quarters, averaging a single-day loss of 3.6%. While IBM options are currently pricing in a slightly wider 4.6% swing in either direction for Friday's trading, sentiment toward the stock is broadly bearish.

Beginning with the brokerage bunch, nearly two-thirds of the analysts following IBM currently recommend holding or selling the stock. The average 12-month price target of $158.90 also sits at a discount to current trading levels. Should IBM turn in a positive earnings surprise, the outperforming equity may be overdue for some upbeat analyst attention, which could prove a boon to the shares.

Short interest on IBM is also elevated. Though short interest plunged 7.9% in the most recent reporting period to 23.1 million shares -- a mild 2.7% of the equity's available float -- it would still take more than eight sessions to cover all these remaining bearish positions, at IBM's typical pace of trading. A continued round of post-earnings short covering could translate into fresh tailwinds for the shares.

Turning to the options pits, speculators have shown an unusual affinity for IBM puts in recent months. The stock's 50-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands at 1.10 -- higher than 88% of comparable readings from the past year. What's more, IBM's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.67 ranks just 2 percentage points from a 12-month high.

IBM's total put open interest is also docked in the 99th percentile of its annual range, with 216,737 contracts outstanding. It appears bearish traders have targeted the January 2017 160- and 165-strike puts, which are home to IBM's top open interest positions and account for nearly 44,000 contracts collectively. According the major options exchanges, a considerable number of these positions have been bought to open, indicating put players are betting on IBM slipping below the respective strikes before tomorrow's close, when the front-month series expires.

All this downbeat pre-earnings sentiment is somewhat understandable, given IBM's post-earnings history. Nevertheless, the blue-chip stock has been a strong technical performer over the past year. The shares have been stair-stepping higher since last February, adding more than 36% on a year-over-year basis, and are now consolidating near the 30-day moving average after hitting an annual high of $169.95 in mid-December. Should International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) turn in a well-received earnings report, the prevailing pessimism toward the stock may be setting up an attractive opportunity for contrarian bulls.

IBM Daily Chart January 19

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 12:14 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move

U.S. stocks are modestly lower, with Donald Trump's upcoming presidential inauguration casting a long shadow over Wall Street. Among specific equities in focus today are drugmaker Mallinckrodt PLC (NYSE:MNK), as well as telecom stocks Sprint Corp (NYSE:S) and Straight Path Communications Inc (NYSEMKT:STRP). Here's a quick look at what's moving MNK, S, and STRP.

  • MNK has jumped 7.1% to trade at $49.84, after the drugmaker yesterday agreed to a $100 million antitrust settlement. Bolstering the stock, Guggenheim Securities said it doesn't see any near-term or midterm threat to Mallinckrodt PLC's flagship drug, Acthar, while Wells Fargo added, "We like Mallinckrodt's valuation but like many investors, we wish Acthar did not have the capacity to attract so much drama." Today's jump aside, the stock has been getting pummeled on the charts, since topping out in late August near $86. Options traders have been scooping up downside bets at a rapid-fire rate, too. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), MNK's 10-day put/call volume ratio rests at a top-heavy 5.76 -- outstripping 81% of comparable readings from the last year.
  • S has surged 2.5% to trade at $8.95, and earlier hit a two-year high of $9.10. The shares are capitalizing on a price-target hike to $7 from $5.40 at HSBC. However, in general, the brokerage bunch has been pretty skeptical toward Sprint Corp. Of the 19 analysts tracking the stock, 17 have doled out a "hold" or worse recommendation. Not to mention, the consensus 12-month price target of $6.74 is well below the current perch of S shares.
  • STRP has fallen 9.1% at $37, and landed on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list, burned by a report by Kerrisdale Capital. The institutional short seller said optimism over last week's Federal Communications Commission (FCC) settlement is "badly misplaced," and waxed pessimistic about a potential spectrum sale. With today's drop, Straight Path Communications Inc is sitting at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its low and high from the past year. While the stock is currently on the SSR list, plenty of bears have already carved out positions. Specifically, a brow-raising 47.4% of STRP's float is dedicated to short interest, which would take nearly three weeks to cover, at the stock's typical trading levels.
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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 12:33 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Stocks On the Move
  • Intraday Option Activity

3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD) is on fire today, up 5.8% at $17.04, thanks to a fresh round of takeover chatter that places Dow component General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) as a possible buyer, according to Trade-Alert. Amid this excitement, stock volume is running in the 98th percentile of its annual range, and DDD options are changing hands at breakneck speeds.

Digging right in, DDD options are trading at nine times the expected rate for this point in the day, with about 35,000 contracts on the tape -- putting total options volume on track for a 52-week high. Leading the way so far is the May 14 put, where a block of 8,000 contracts appears to have been bought to open this morning. On the call side, meanwhile, it looks as though speculators may be purchasing new positions at the February 18 call and the January 2017 17-strike call.

Call buying has been the prevailing trend among DDD options traders in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity has seen more than six calls purchased for every put over the past 10 sessions. The resulting call/put volume ratio of 6.12 sits higher than 95% of the past year's readings. Plus, DDD's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.48 is docked at an annual low, indicating near-term traders haven't been more call-skewed anytime in the last 12 months.

Notably, near-term options buyers could be scoring a bargain on DDD. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 48% is seated in the low 11th percentile of its annual range, indicating historically low volatility expectations are being priced into DDD's short-term options. What's more, the equity has a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 79, meaning the shares have made bigger moves on the charts than the options market has priced in over the past year.

All of this call-heavy action doesn't necessarily mean traders are optimistic, though. Nearly 21% of DDD's total float is currently dedicated to short interest, representing over two weeks' worth of buying power, at the stock's average daily pace. And with the top open interest position among all DDD options residing at the out-of-the-money January 2017 20-strike call, it's reasonable to assume some recent call buyers have in fact been short sellers using options to hedge their bearish bets.

Analysts haven't been overly taken with DDD, either. Out of 13 brokerage firms tracking the security, only two recommend buying the shares. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $15.55 sits at a roughly 9% discount to DDD's current levels.

This pessimism seems rather undeserved, considering DDD has tacked on a whopping 165% year-over-year, with the shares benefiting from several bounces off support at the 50-week moving average since last May. Should analysts and traders begin abandoning their bearish positions, 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD) could be set to run higher on the charts.

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 12:49 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Indexes and ETFs
  • Trader Content

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly sentiment survey just showed the largest weekly drop in bullish sentiment since March 2016, with optimism fading ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration tomorrow. In fact, we are still in the middle of the second-longest streak of less than 50% bulls since the survey began in 1987. The current streak began on Jan. 8, 2015, and has lasted 107 weeks, or just over two years. The longest streak ever spanned 110 weeks, beginning Jan. 22, 1993 -- two days after Bill Clinton was inaugurated -- and ending in February 1995. Interestingly, both AAII streaks started when the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was at or near all-time highs, and stocks' subsequent trajectory is much the same.  

Below are two charts that track the price action of the SPX during the bull streaks. The charts look remarkably similar. From February 1993 to February 1995, the SPX made a choppy advance with occasional corrections, gaining nearly double-digit percentages. It seems a combination of corrections during this period and the fact that the market was only six years removed from the 1987 crash was enough to keep retail investors skeptical.

Fast-forward to the current AAII streak. Similar to the 1990s streak, the SPX is up around 10% over the current period, in a choppy advance with corrections along the way. And bigger-picture, the market is only 7-8 years removed from two bear markets over a 10-year period. If the price action over the next five years is anything like the price action from 1995 to 2000 -- wherein the SPX rallied more than 200% -- I think both bulls and bears will be surprised.

170119 SPX 1

170119 SPX 2

 

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 12:54 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • The Week Ahead

Next week will mark the first of Donald Trump's presidency, and history suggests the S&P 500 Index (SPX) could struggle. Still, there will be plenty for traders to take in, as earnings season picks up in a big way. Blue chip McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) will get the ball rolling early in the week, with a number of other Dow components set to report later on, including Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC). The earnings slate will also feature tech giant Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and coffee specialist Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX). As for economic data, most eyes will be trained on Friday's advance reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). 

Below is a brief list of some key market events scheduled for the upcoming week. All earnings dates listed below are tentative and subject to change. Please check with each company's respective website for official reporting dates.

The week begins on Monday, Jan. 23, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey. MCD will headline the earnings calendar. Halliburton (HAL) and Yahoo! (YHOO) will also report.

Tuesday, Jan. 24 brings the Markit purchasing managers manufacturing index (PMI) and existing home sales. The earnings docket will feature 3M (MMM), DuPont (DD), JNJ, Travelers Companies (TRV), Verizon (VZ), Alcoa (AA), Alibaba (BABA), AK Steel (AKS), Capital One (COF), Corning (GLW), Cree (CREE), Discover Financial Services (DFS), D.R. Horton (DHI), Fifth Third (FITB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Navient (NAVI), Seagate Technology (STX), Steel Dynamics (STLD), and Texas Instruments (TXN).

For Wednesday, Jan. 25, the regularly scheduled update on crude inventories is the only item on the economic calendar. Stepping up to the earnings confessional will be Boeing (BA), United Technologies (UTX), AT&T (T), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Briggs & Stratton (BGG), Citrix Systems (CTXS), eBay (EBAY), F5 Networks (FFIV), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Hess (HES), Lam Research (LRCX), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), McCormick (MKC), McKesson (MCK), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Novartis AG (NVS), QUALCOMM (QCOM), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), and Western Digital (WDC).

On Thursday, Jan. 26, international trade data will be released, on top of new home sales and weekly jobless claims. On the earnings front CAT, INTC, Microsoft (MSFT), GOOGL, SBUX, Baker Hughes (BHI), Biogen (BIIB), Blackstone (BX), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Celgene (CELG), Comcast (CMCSA), E*TRADE (ETFC), Dow Chemical (DOW), Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), Ford Motor (F), Helmerich & Payne (HP), hhgregg (HGG), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Northrop Grumman (NOC), PayPal (PYPL), PulteGroup (PHM), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Raytheon (RTN), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Southwest Air (LUV), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Swift Transportation (SWFT), and VMware (VMW) will report. 

The week wraps up on Friday, Jan. 27, with the advance reading of fourth-quarter GDP, as well as durable goods orders and the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV), American Airlines (AAL), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Honeywell (HON) will release earnings. 

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 1:30 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Expectational Analysis
Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) and Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP) both belong to the oil services sector. And, based on our internal Sector Scorecard, despite cooling off lately, these stocks have outperformed over the long haul. Moreover, they've failed to win much support on Wall Street.

Diving into the details, the average 52-week return for the oil sector stocks we track is almost 50%. What's more, 24 of the 29 names are perched above their 80-day moving averages. That said, it's also worth noting that the corresponding exchange-traded fund (ETF), the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH), has been lodged in a tight channel between $34 and $35 over the past few weeks. Long story short, the oil services sector presents a somewhat mixed picture.

In terms of sentiment, skepticism is prevalent. Only 37% of covering analysts have doled out a "buy" recommendation. Plus, on average, 12.6% of each oil stock's float is sold short, representing over a week's worth of pent-up buying power, at average daily volumes.

Similar observations can be made of both HAL and HP. The oil stocks have outperformed long term, with Halliburton sporting a year-over-year gain of 85% at $55.08, compared to Helmerich & Payne's similarly gaudy 82% advance at $78.49. At the same time, skeptics haven't shied away, based on their top-heavy Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratios (SOIR) of 1.34 and 2.59, in the put-skewed 88th and 87th annual percentiles, respectively. Not to mention, 24 million shares are sold short on HAL, and 18 million for HP.

Another key thing HAL and HP have in common is their historical post-inauguration outperformance. The chart below, which comes courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, makes this clear as day:

Best Inauguration stocks Jan 18

Specifically, since 2000, HAL has been higher 100% of the time in the week after presidential inaugurations, with a typical return of 5%. HP has been even better. The oil stock sports an average one-week gain of 7.2%, with positive returns across the board, as well.

From a contrarian perspective, this suggests HAL and HP could extend their epic long-term rallies next week, after Donald Trump's inauguration tomorrow. If the stocks can replicate their historical post-event strength, a capitulation among option bears and/or a short-squeeze situation could further catalyze tailwinds.

In order to do that, though, Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) and Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP) will need to post upbeat earnings data. HAL is scheduled to tell all before the open on Monday, Jan. 23, while HP will hit the earnings stage bright and early on Thursday, Jan. 26.

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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 2:01 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • Bernie's Content

Over the past month, Delta Air Lines (DAL) shareholders have experienced a "fake all-time high" (12/9/16), followed by a "fake earnings beat" (1/12/17). OK -- maybe not "fake," per se, but the fact is that DAL's high on Dec. 9 did fall a penny shy of the all-time high of a year prior. And rarely have we seen earnings reports "pre-hyped" to an extent rivaling DAL's release on Thursday -- as breathless analysts and financial news reporters awaited DAL revenue and profit metrics that would somehow (miraculously) be consistent with the company's most recent "upside guidance," and yet at the same time exceed these already boosted expectations.

Sure enough, DAL shares have gone nowhere since Thursday morning's earnings release. But, then again, the same can be said about DAL shares over the past year, and over the past two years. In fact, per the accompanying chart, DAL has closed out each of the past three years at prices within 1.5 points of each other. And the period since late 2014 has been characterized by repeated failed rallies by DAL to the $50-$52 area -- and repeated sharp pullbacks in the wake of those failures.

But there is also a seasonality component to these price failures, with the "peak followed by a sharp decline" syndrome most likely to manifest itself in December and January.

Based on the aforementioned markers of price behavior by DAL shares (plus the near-unanimous chorus of bullish analysts, who seem destined to begin expressing rumblings of disappointment in the weeks ahead), we see the next tradeable move by DAL as being to the downside.

Our recommended DAL put option carries a very attractive leverage ratio of 10.9-to-1, and based on Friday's closing prices, it can achieve our targeted profit of 100% on a pullback by DAL over the holding period of less than 10% from its 2017 peak.

dal weekly sm 0113




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Published on Jan 19, 2017 at 2:05 PM
Updated on Mar 19, 2021 at 7:15 AM
  • By the Numbers
  • Stock Market News
  • Expectational Analysis
Optimism has been building toward Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) in recent weeks, per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Specifically, options traders across these exchanges have bought to open 16,935 calls on WYNN stock over the past 10 trading days, compared to 6,454 puts. What's more, the resultant call/put volume ratio of 2.62 ranks in the 88th annual percentile, meaning long calls have been initiated relative to puts on WYNN at a faster-than-usual clip.

Echoing this is the equity's gamma-weighted Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.72, which indicates near-the-money calls exceed puts among options expiring in three months or less. Plus, total call open interest has outweighed put open interest on WYNN since Dec. 20, with 126,173 calls currently open versus 110,790 puts. Prior to mid-December, puts had the lead over calls looking back to late October.

This growing optimism toward the casino stock is echoed outside of the options pits, as well. Since topping out at a six-year peak in mid-February, short interest on WYNN has been steadily declining. In the two most recent reporting periods alone, short interest fell nearly 24% to 7.2 million shares. While this still accounts for 9% of WYNN's available float, it would take just three days to cover these remaining bearish bets, at the stock's average pace of trading -- suggesting there's little in the way of sideline cash to help buoy the shares.

On the charts, WYNN spent several months rallying hard off its late-January 2016 lows, topping out at $102.44 in early April. And while the shares hit an annual high of $109.50 in mid-September, they've spent most of the past nine months chopping around in the $88-to-$104 region. More recently, the stock has struggled under a trendline connecting a series of lower highs since late November -- and, unlike this pair of oil stocks, has been one of the worst performing S&P 500 Index (SPX) stocks in the week after a presidential inauguration. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, WYNN hasn't put in a positive performance once in the week following the last three inaugurations, averaging a loss of 5.2%.

wynn daily since january 2016

With such high expectations surrounding the recently struggling stock, Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) could be due for some near-term headwinds. Regardless of how options traders choose to trade the casino stock, though, it's an opportune time for premium buyers to dive in. Specifically, WYNN's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 41% ranks lower than 86% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. In simpler terms, the stock's short-term options are attractively priced at the moment, from a volatility standpoint.

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