Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) options are trading at an accelerated clip today, with the semiconductor stock surging to levels not seen in six years. With AMD stock up 9% at $9.47 -- and fresh off $9.54, its highest peak since February 2011 -- more than 138,000 AMD options had changed hands, two times what's typically seen at this point in the day. Helping boost the tech stock is speculation the chipmaker has licensed its graphics technology to Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC). Plus, Loop Capital initiated coverage on AMD stock with a "buy" rating and $11 price target, saying the "smooth sailing" will likely continue, and that "2017 and 2018 will be solid years for AMD."

AMD options traders are apparently betting on more upside, too, at least in the near term. More than 97,000 calls have traded on AMD so far today, with about 13% of the action centered at the weekly 12/9 9-strike call. It seems likely some of the activity at this now in-the-money call is a result of speculators purchasing new positions, meaning they expect AMD stock to extend today's rally through this Friday's close, when the weekly series expires.

Widening the sentiment scope reveals options traders have shown a growing appetite for long calls over puts in recent months. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), AMD's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.51 ranks in the 67th annual percentile, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

With a healthy 12% of AMD's float sold short, it's likely some of this call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- is due to short sellers hedging their bearish bets against any additional upside risk. Regardless, now appears to be a prime time to buy premium on the stock. Specifically, AMD's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 63% ranks in the 18th percentile of its 52-week range, suggesting low volatility expectations are priced into the security's near-term options. Plus, AMD's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is docked at a lofty 95, indicating the options market has historically underpriced the equity's ability to make big moves on the chart over the past year.

Speaking of the equity's technical prowess, today's positive price action is just more of the same for the shares of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD). Year-to-date, in fact, the tech stock has more than tripled in value. And with around 63% of covering analysts still maintaining a "hold" or worse rating on the stock, more bullish brokerage notes could be on the horizon -- which could help propel the shares even higher up the charts.

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Analysts are weighing in on streaming media specialists Pandora Media Inc (NYSE:P) and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), as well as software stock Coupa Software Inc (NASDAQ:COUP). Here's a quick roundup of today's bullish brokerage notes on P, NFLX, and COUP.

• P is up 3.4% in electronic trading following an upgrade to "outperform" from "perform" at Oppenheimer. The brokerage firm said it sees the company as a legitimate buyout target for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI), with the shares worth as much as $21 apiece. In fact, similar buyout rumors helped Pandora Media Inc surge more than 16% on Friday -- barreling past previous resistance at the 200-day moving average. But the shares are still in negative year-to-date territory, at $13.37, and short sellers have been piling on. Specifically, these bearish bets rose by 23.5% in the last two reporting periods, and now represent 25.7% of P's available float -- or nearly seven sessions' worth of trading, at the equity's average daily pace. 
  
  
• NFLX received an upgrade to "hold" from "sell" at Evercore ISI, which also raised its price target on the stock by $10 to $111, saying previously feared competition has not been gaining traction. Still, this brokerage note has barely been a boon for the stock, which closed last night at $119.16, and is only 0.4% higher ahead of the bell. On the charts, the round $120 level is just overhead, while the underfoot 40-day moving average has been providing support of late. Longer term, Netflix, Inc. got off to a rough start in 2016, but has been muscling its way back in recent months, now up 4.2% year-to-date. Meanwhile near-term options traders have been unusually put-heavy toward the security, per NFLX's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.00 -- higher than 77% of the past year's readings. 
  
  
• COUP last night unveiled its first quarterly earnings report since going public in October, posting a slimmer-than-expected loss. The results led JMP and Raymond James to increased their price targets to $31 and $33, respectively, and have put the shares on track to pop 7.1% at the open. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing since Coupa Software Inc's IPO, though, as the stock hasn't come close to matching its highs from its initial trading session, finishing Monday at $26.02. While COUP options haven't been available for long, early speculators have been showing a pronounced preference for puts. Over the past 10 days at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), traders have bought to open 414 COUP puts, compared to just 87 calls. 

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U.S. stock futures are signaling a slightly higher open, as traders digest the latest economic data. Among specific equities in focus today are iPhone maker Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), women's health issue TherapeuticsMD Inc (NYSEMKT:TXMD), and shipping stock DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS). Here's a quick look at what's driving AAPL, TXMD, and DRYS.

• AAPL is up 1% in electronic trading, after CEO Tim Cook said the Apple Watch is on pace for its best quarter ever after a record-setting first week of holiday shopping sales. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse reiterated its "outperform" assessment and $150 price target, saying it sees strong earnings for the company through next year's iPhone cycle. Apple Inc. closed Monday at $109.11, down 7.8% since this time last year. In the options pits, traders have been more interested in long puts than normal. Specifically, AAPL's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is 0.79, which ranks in the 88th annual percentile. 

• TXMD is eyeing a 20% pop when the market opens, after the company announced positive results for its treatment for vasomotor symptoms in a late-stage study. The shares were in serious need of a boost, as they had lost 40.5% year-to-date to trade at $6.17. Goldman Sachs and Stifel expect more upside, too, raising their respective price targets to $13 and $17. This bullish attention is nothing new for TherapeuticsMD Inc, as all covering brokerage firms recommend buying the stock. 

• DRYS is gaining 7.8% ahead of the open, on reports Morgan Stanley has taken a 6.1% passive stake in the company. It's been a wild 12 months for the stock, which was trading above $400 per share last December, but closed Monday at just $4.60, despite a post-election surge. Options volume on DryShips Inc. has been extremely light on an absolute basis, but the activity that has taken place has centered around calls. By the numbers, 1,142 DRYS call options have been purchased during the past two weeks at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX, compared to just 15 puts. 

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Analysts are weighing in on Dow component Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE), robotic surgery specialist Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG), and gold stock Royal Gold, Inc (USA) (NASDAQ:RGLD). Here's a quick roundup of today's bearish brokerage notes on NKE, ISRG, and RGLD.

• NKE is off 2.6% at $50.52 this morning after Cowen and Company downgraded the stock to "market perform" from "outperform," and its cut price target to $54 from $59. The brokerage cited concerns Nike Inc could see accelerated losses to competitors Under Armour Inc (NYSE:UA) and Germany-based Adidas AG, after its survey found consumer preference for Nike apparel dwindling. NKE has been steadily declining on the charts, giving back more than 23% year-over-year. But options traders seem to be betting on a rebound for the blue-chip stock. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), NKE's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.09 rests 3 percentage points from an annual high. 
  
  
• Leerink slashed its price target on ISRG to $755 from $810 -- still representing all-time-high territory, and a 20.7% premium over current levels. The stock is off 1.8% at $625.55, trimming its year-to-date lead to 14.5%. After spending much of the year rising atop its 80-day moving average, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. peaked at a record high of $727.25 in October, and has since been taking a breather. Meanwhile, the majority of analysts remain in the security's bullish corner, with 11 out of 17 brokerages rating the shares a "buy" or better. 
  
  
• RGLD is shaking of a price-target cut to $86 from $99 at Barclays, up 0.6% at $71.41, even as gold prices continue to slip. Like many of its fellow gold stocks, Royal Gold, Inc (USA) has had a standout year, nearly doubling on the charts, and finding a strong ally in its 200-day moving average, which has stepped up as support in recent weeks. Though options volume on RGLD tends to be light on an absolute basis, speculators have been taking an extremely call-skewed approach of late. Specifically, the stock holds a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 32.77 at the ISE, CBOE, and PHLX -- higher than 99% of all comparable readings from the past 12 months. 

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is getting cooked this morning, down 6.5% at $370.42. The technical tumble follows a company presentation in which executives said sales haven't recovered as much as expected from a rash of food-borne illnesses earlier in the year, and revealed same-store sales in October were down about 21%. In fact, CMG execs admitted they are "nervous" about the restaurant chain's 2017 guidance.

Canaccord Genuity weighed in following these revelations, saying, "Chipotle's third-quarter earnings reinforces our thesis that the path to recovery remains slow and the brand has yet to regain credibility with the consumer." As far as investing goes, the brokerage firm put it bluntly: "we believe it's too early to buy the stock."

Today's struggles are more of the same for CMG shares. Relative to the stock's perch this time last year, Chipotle is down 33%. Early last month, in fact, the shares notched a three-year low, before the round $350 level finally stopped the bleeding.

Therefore, it should come as little surprise to see Wall Street stacked against the stock. For example, 17 of 25 analysts rank CMG a "hold" or worse. Separately, short interest swelled 13% during the last two reporting periods, and now accounts for 22.7% of the equity's total float.

On the surface, options traders have broken with that bearish trend. Over the past two weeks at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open 16,224 CMG calls versus 12,125 puts. What's more, the resultant call/put volume ratio of 1.24 sits near the top quartile of its annual range. However, given Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s (NYSE:CMG) high levels of short interest, it may be that call buyers are in fact short sellers purchasing upside protection, rather than hoping for a breakout.

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China-based social media stock Weibo Corp (ADR) (NASDAQ:WB) has been soaring up the charts this year, tacking on 136% year-to-date, even with a 3.3% drop to $46 this morning. The shares topped out at an all-time peak of $55.93 in October, and have since pulled back to the 100-day moving average. Despite this technical strength, plenty of skepticism surrounds WB.

While analysts have maintained upbeat outlooks on the stock, traders don't seem to agree. Specifically, short interest represents a hefty 23.3% of WB's available float -- plenty of buying to fuel another run higher as these bears cover their positions. What's more, a piling-on of shorts through most of this year did nothing to slow the shares' rally. In fact, short interest peaked at a record high at roughly the same time as WB stock.

Meanwhile, options traders have shown an unusual preference for bearish bets. Though volume tends to be light, and calls have led on an absolute basis, WB's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.53 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) ranks higher than 82% of all comparable readings from the last 12 months.

It could be an attractive time to pick up Weibo Corp (ADR) (NASDAQ:WB) options, too. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 59% sits in the moderate 42nd percentile of its annual range, suggesting the equity's short-term options are pricing in below-average volatility expectations at the moment. But more compelling yet is WB's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS), which rests at a high 91. Simply stated, this means the options market has tended to seriously underprice the stock's ability to make outsized moves over the past year.

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Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) is having a rough year on the charts, and the athletic apparel retailer is due to report earnings tomorrow. Ahead of the event, option traders are eyeing the round $50 level for the shares of the worst-performing Dow component of 2016.

NKE is down 0.4% at $50.71 today, bringing its year-to-date loss to 18.9% -- the worst among all blue chips by a landslide. Currently, The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE:KO) is the only other Dow stock on pace for a year-to-date loss. However, NKE may have found a foothold at the round $50 region -- representing a 20% year-to-date decline for NKE shares -- which has acted as support over the last two months. 

Today in NKE's option pits, puts are trading at at twice their average intraday rate, with about 12,400 contracts exchanged -- on pace for the 91st percentile of its annual range. Drilling down, the January 2017 50-strike put is among the most active, and is already NKE's top open interest position, with more than 32,000 contracts outstanding. What's more, the January 2017 and weekly 12/23 50-strike put options have seen the most open interest added over the past two weeks. This heavy put activity and open interest located at the $50 level could act as an added layer of options-related support in the short term.

Against this backdrop, NKE's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.21 sits in the elevated 92nd percentile of its annual range, indicating near-term NKE option players have been especially put-skewed as of late. In addition, five of NKE's top 10 open interest positions are front-month puts.

Looking ahead at tomorrow's earnings report, NKE option players are pricing in a single-session swing of 7% in either direction. Over the past eight quarters, NKE shares have averaged a one-day post-earnings move of 4.1%, finishing in the red about half the time, so it looks like recent option players are betting on a bigger-than-usual earnings reaction out of the shares. If option traders' predictions pan out, a 7% fall could put Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) well below the layers of support at the $50 mark, and in territory not charted since early 2015.

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The 20 stocks listed in the table below have attracted the highest total options volume among mid-cap names during the past 10 trading days. Names highlighted are new to the list since the last time the study was run, and data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Two names of notable interest are homebuilder stocks Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) and KB Home (NYSE:KBH), after sector peer Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN) delivered strong quarterly earnings. Here's a closer look at how options traders are lining up on TOL and KBH.

Options traders have been unusually bearish toward TOL in recent weeks. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) comes in at 1.40, which ranks in the 83rd annual percentile, revealing put buying has been more popular than normal. 

But while the bearish bias has been growing among speculators, it's been dwindling elsewhere. Specifically, short interest on TOL declined by nearly 18% during the most recent reporting period. The stock's short-interest ratio now sits at a modest 2.70. Plus, 60% of analysts strongly recommend buying the stock, and zero have issued a "sell" rating -- while Barron's has extremely high hopes for 2017. 

Looking at the charts, shares of TOL have been fighting back after a forgettable start to the year. The stock has managed a series of higher highs and lows since February, but could struggle as it approaches the year-to-date breakeven level, as well as its long-term 36-month moving average. At last check, TOL was up 1.7% at $32.14. 

Options traders have been even more bearish on KBH. The stock has posted a put/call volume ratio of 5.42 during the past two weeks, putting it just 11 percentage points from a 12-month high. Not to mention, the equity has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 5.34, which ranks in the 97th annual percentile. This tells us that traders targeting options expiring within three months are way more put-skewed than normal right now. 

Looking closer at KBH's options activity, the 10 largest open interest positions are all puts. The January 2017 16-strike put saw the largest increase in open interest during the past two weeks, and data from the major options exchanges confirms substantial buy-to-open activity. In other words, traders are betting on the shares breaching the $16 level in the weeks ahead.

This skepticism is rather surprising, given the stock's performance on the charts this year. KBH has climbed 34% in 2016 to trade at $16.56, with the rising 200-day moving average stepping up as support during a recent pullback. Considering the bearish tilt among options traders, and the fact that 11 of 13 analysts say to hold or sell the stock, KBH has all the makings of a bullish contrarian play. 

For prospective traders, now appears to be a good time to target either stock's short-term options. For instance, Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE:TOL) has a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 26%, which ranks in the 14th annual percentile, while KB Home's (NYSE:KBH) SVI of 37% ranks in the 26th percentile of its annual range. In short, the options market is currently pricing in low volatility expectations on short-term contracts for TOL and KBH. 

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Shares of Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) are selling off today, after the fertilizer firm announced a $2.5 billion M&A deal with sector peer Vale SA (ADR) (NYSE:VALE). At last check, MOS stock was trading down 6.4% at $27.67, and put volume is accelerated. Specifically, 6,616 MOS puts have traded so far -- two times what's typically seen at this point in the day, and outstripping the number of calls on the tape.

Today's faster-than-usual put volume just echoes the withstanding trend seen in MOS' options pits, though. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the security's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.09 ranks in the 86th annual percentile. Simply stated, puts have been bought to open over calls at a quicker-than-typical pace in recent months.

This skepticism is seen outside of the options pits, too. Although short interest is down nearly 19% since hitting a record peak in mid-October, it still accounts for a healthy 10.7% of the equity's available float -- or 8.2 times the average pace of trading. Plus, 12 of 13 analysts maintain a "hold" or worse rating, while the average 12-month price target of $26.26 stands at a discount to current trading levels.

Granted, the stock has done little on the charts to warrant optimism from traders and analysts. In fact, MOS has repeatedly run into resistance from the overhead $31 mark, and despite hitting an annual high of $31.54 as recently as Dec. 9, the shares are up just 0.5% on the year. Plus, today's sell-off has brought Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) back below its 320-day moving average -- a trendline that contained the stock in the first half of 2015, but which MOS had previously managed to trade north of in December.

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It's no secret that stocks have been on a tear since the U.S. election, with the Dow just wrapping up its longest weekly winning streak of 2016. Against this backdrop, traders are rushing into stocks -- and out of bonds -- at a rapid-fire rate, a record $97.6 billion has been funneled into U.S. equity exchange-traded funds, and optimism is on the rise. What's more, if history is any indicator, one sentiment signal could point to short-term speed bumps -- but long-term gains still ahead.

The number of self-identified bulls in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey has been at or above 40% for five straight weeks now, and is within striking distance of a three-year high. Further, the 10-week average of bullish sentiment is now at its highest point since April 2015. But where did these bulls come from? Prior to the election, more than 40% of AAII respondents fell in the "neutral" column; that number has since dropped to its lowest point since November 2014, at 32.3%.

According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, when the retail crowd suddenly shows more conviction, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) tends to suffer in the near term. Specifically, going back to 1987, when the AAII "neutral" reading plunged below 25% after at least six straight months north of that level, the index averaged losses of 0.6% and 0.54%, respectively, two weeks and one month out. That's compared to anytime gains of 0.33% and 0.66% in the same respective time periods. What's more, after these 10 signals, the S&P has been positive 50% of the time -- less than usual -- going out one month.

However, the SPX has been positive a whopping 90% of the time, looking three and six months after a severe depletion of "neutral" respondents. The index averaged a three- and six-month gain of 3.77% and 7.96%, respectively, handily outperforming the S&P's average anytime returns in those same time periods. And volatility tends to be lower than usual, too, looking at standard deviation.

 

On the other hand, contrarians won't be surprised to find that the S&P tends to perform much better when once-neutral investors flock to the bearish camp, as opposed to the bullish. Historically, this mass movement from the "neutral" category has been split down the middle, with half resulting in a flood of optimism, and half in a bearish bombardment.

After a switch to "bullish" sentiment, the S&P has averaged a loss looking two weeks and one month out, and slimmer returns three and six months out, compared to a switch to "bearish" sentiment. In fact, when once-neutral AAII respondents turn bearish, the S&P has been positive 100% of the time looking three and six months out. Further, the SPX tends to be much more volatile after a bullish switch, compared to a bearish -- again, as measured by standard deviation.

In conclusion, the AAII "neutral" reading hasn't yet breached 25%; in fact, we're still in the midst of the longest stretch of "neutral" readings above 25% on record, at 108 weeks. And while the growing optimism on the Street is certainly on our radar, it's not yet ringing alarm bells for the bulls to hit the bricks and defy December seasonality. As Schaeffer's Senior V.P. of Research Todd Salamone noted earlier today, "If you are a short-term trader, be open to trades on both the short and long side of the market. If you are a long-term investor, do not disturb your bullish positions."


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Retracement and Fibonacci levels are useful tools for predicting stock trends and trend reversals. As fate would have it, several mining stocks currently find themselves near key technical levels -- including a pair of gold stocks highlighted earlier this month. This week, among the stocks approaching crucial areas are commodity concerns Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (USA) (NYSE:AEM), Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:FCX), and Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL).

AEM has been struggling since early August, when it hit a four-year high a hair north of $60. Earlier today, this downtrend brought the shares within a chip-shot of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of their 2000 lows and December 2010 highs, before they reversed higher. In fact, AEM stock was last seen up 2.1% this afternoon at $38.14, extending its year-to-date advance to 45%.

FCX has been a beast on the charts this year, roughly doubling in value at $13.45. In recent weeks, the stock had been running toward the $16 area -- corresponding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its mid-2015 highs and January 2016 low -- before losing steam. However, after taking a breather, FCX finds itself around the 50% retracement level, which could act as another potential inflection point -- this time to the upside.

HL has exploded in 2016, nearly tripling in value at $5.48. Recently, the shares have been trading in a sideways pattern between their 50% retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci level of their late-2000 lows and mid-2008 high. Another technical layer could be coming into play, as well, with the 40-week moving average recently catching up to HL stock. If this trendline acts as support, the shares could soon resume their long-term trend higher.

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U.S. stocks are higher after this morning's economic data and an afternoon speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Among specific equities in focus today are biotechs Clovis Oncology Inc (NASDAQ:CLVS) and Egalet Corp (NASDAQ:EGLT), as well as financial stock Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMBC). Here's a quick look at what's moving CLVS, EGLT, and AMBC.

• CLVS is up 9.5% at $40.76 -- and earlier notched a new annual high of $46.97 -- after news that the biotech's ovarian cancer drug, rubraca, was granted accelerated approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Clovis Oncology Inc shares now sit up more than 17% in 2016, and are on pace to close above the $40 level that has acted as resistance since September. Shorted shares still account for a hefty 38.4% of CLVS' float , which would take 6.5 days of trading to cover, at CLVS' average daily volume. A short squeeze could provide added tailwinds for CLVS.
  
  
• EGLT is up 4.6% at $8.26, after Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its "overweight" rating for the biotech, after studies found its pain medication to have less intranasal abuse potential than opioid medications such as OxyContin. In addition, Cantor Fitzgerald set a price target of $21 -- more than twice EGLT's current price. EGLT is still down by more than 24% in 2016, with the shares struggling to break out above resistance in the $8.50-$9 region. Short sellers have been piling on, with a whopping 57% of Egalet Corp's float sold short, which would take more than 17 days of trading to cover, at EGLT's average daily volume. 

• AMBC is down 15.5% at $21.97 -- and is among the worst performing stocks on the Nasdaq -- after a downgrade to "sell" from "neutral" from MKM Partners. The brokerage firm also cut its price target to $10 from $27 -- implying a drop of more than 50% from AMBC's current price -- stating, "We continue to have great difficulties assessing an appropriate value for the company." Ambac Financial Group, Inc. shares currently sit on the short-sale restricted (SSR) list, but remain more than 55% higher or the year, and touched an annual peak earlier this month.

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